He didn't hit much, and he didn't hit lefties at all. He's a tradeable commodity. It's not a question of whether he "deserves to be traded"... it's a question of whether the Jays can get more value for him than what he's worth to the Jays.

I would hate it if Hudson was traded. He is, I think, my favorite Blue Jay... I have an irrational like for him. But every player, at all times, is liable to be traded in the right deal, and that's as it should be.

Craig's right on.

As for replacements, could JP be thinking to move Woodward to second, since we're probably going to sign a SS anyways? No matter what, it would probably be only for one year, before one of those two #1 picks is ready.

Doesn't seem crazy, if you get enough value for Hudson.

It's a fine line the Jays walk: they are a team run by empirical analysis and a team with clubhouse harmony and personality.

Sometimes, there is no conflict. El Artista is (by all accounts) a fine person as well as a good pitcher whom the market had undervalued.

But sometimes there is a conflict. If the Jays can get so much more on-field value for O-Dog that it subsumes the combination of O-Dog's personality and on-field value, then they have to do it.

What I am saying, I guess, is that its all empirical. I just hope the Jays are using the right metric to quantify O-Dog's personality/clubhouse value.

It's a fine line the Jays walk: they are a team run by empirical analysis and a team with clubhouse harmony and personality.

Sometimes, there is no conflict. El Artista is (by all accounts) a fine person as well as a good pitcher whom the market had undervalued.

But sometimes there is a conflict. If the Jays can get so much more on-field value for O-Dog that it subsumes the combination of O-Dog's personality and on-field value, then they have to do it.

What I am saying, I guess, is that its all empirical. I just hope the Jays are using the right metric to quantify O-Dog's personality/clubhouse value.

Hudson's ability to hit right handed (or lack there of) I think may be overrated. Granted, it's been bad, but it's also only been in 148 career ABs.

Does anyone have minor league splits?

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But sometimes there is a conflict. If the Jays can get so much more on-field value for O-Dog that it subsumes the combination of O-Dog's personality and on-field value, then they have to do it.

Or maybe they want to get rid of O-Dog because of his personality. Hard to know what they're thinking.

I quite like Hudson, but I'm not against trading him. Depends what the Jays get in return.

Mike

I don't have a problem with trading Hudson if it will improve the club, but what I fail to understand is this: who will play second if the O-Dog goes? Can Berg or Clark do the job? If Woodward moves to second, who plays short? (I don't think the Jays can afford Aurilia, and he's in the decline phase of his career, anyway.)

Maybe the Jays are still in rebuilding mode as they wait for the Sox and Yanks to spend themselves into oblivion, and can afford to leave a hole at second for 2004 and wait for Adams or Hill to arrive in 2005. Or perhaps J.P. is pursuing an inexpensive free-agent option at second.

But I still think there's no point in trading a player unless there's a better option available. And I don't see one here.

I like Hudson too. He's pretty solid all-around and has a great attitude. My guess is that JP thinks he doesn't have all that much remaining upside. He's 26 and has posted pretty consistent offensive numbers throughout his career, so one could argue that that trend isn't going to change dramatically. Around .270-.290 BA, .330 OBP, a bit of power and speed, good defense.

He had a nice year in 2002 at Syracuse. If he could post those kind of numbers in Toronto in 2004, prorated to 550 AB, the trade talks might settle down...

I cringe at the thought of Aurilia SS, Woodward 2B, if only for defensive reasons.

If Aurilia gets a 2-year deal at a reasonable price, I would be pretty happy with Woodward/Aurilia SS, Hudson 2B.

Was it the JP-pimp comment that did him in?

Was it the JP-pimp comment that did him in?

That was two years ago. Are you suggesting the Sword of Damocles has been dangling all that time?

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Are you suggesting the Sword of Damocles has been dangling all that time?

Maybe JP is waiting for O-Dog to eat the poisoned donut.

Mike

I can't believe that JP would hold something like that against Orlando, even when it first happened. If that was factored into him getting sent down, then it was probably a "reminder" that he should think first, talk second, or not at all.

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I just wanted to say how proud I am that nobody has brought up the silly suggestion that Frankie Cat is going back to playing second.

Thanks for your co-operation,

Mike

Are you suggesting the Sword of Damocles has been dangling all that time?

Nah, I was just being silly. I thought the comment was funny as hell, and I really can't see anyone (other than muckraking media members) taking it as anything other than a goofy compliment.

Was it the JP-pimp comment that did him in?

When is this going to die?

Orlando meant it as a compliment. Does no one understand ebonics anymore?

But thanks, now I have the Sword of Damocles song from The Rocky Horror (Picture) Show stuck in my head.

...I'm at the start of a pretty big downerrrrrrrrrr...

I really can't see anyone (other than muckraking media members) taking it as anything other than a goofy compliment.

I don't believe for a minute that Ricciardi was offended by the comment. More likely, he walked away after hearing it, rolled his eyes in disbelief and thought what a dumb bastard Hudson must be.

As for the Sword of Damocles reference, it thankfully didn't evoke a Rocky Horror flashback for me, but I can't hear the expression without thinking of Monty Burns. I can't remember the context however. Mr. Moffatt?

What's a bit strange is that Hudson's name comes up constantly in trade rumours, but Vernon Wells' name never does. Vernon is a great ballplayer, and yes better than Orlando, but is eminently tradeable as a commodity. The Jays have plenty of outfield options who are closer to major league ready than the middle infield options.

Vernon's perceived value is very, very high, probably higher than his actual value; most teams look at a "Gold-Glove" quality centerfielder who hits .300 with 35 homers and drool. They look at all of these and then look at his long-term contract on terms favourable to the team, and they start to pant. I'd guess that he is perceived as one of the top 10 properties in the game.

On the other hand, Orlando's perceived value is real, but less than his actual value. He is not widely perceived as a "Gold-Glove" quality second baseman, although objectively he is a significantly better defensive player than Wells. His offensive game is OK, but at this point nothing special, and this is obvious to everybody.

I'm not saying that either should be traded now. It's just that there is no reason for the Jays to be entertaining offers on Hudson and not on Wells.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/teams/player_bio.asp?player_id=3112&hubName=TOR
There's, to me at least, nothing about Howie Clark's major and minor league stats that suggests he can't be a mjor league 2nd baseman

COMN for Howie's stats

Orlando's comment wasn't exactly flattering to himself. Let's keep in mind that Ricciardi is his boss. If J.P. is a pimp, what does that make Orlando? Should he consider changing his nickname to Ho-Dog?

There's, to me at least, nothing about Howie Clark's major and minor league stats that suggests he can't be a mjor league 2nd baseman.

I'm not saying I know for sure, but I am guessing there's a huge difference between Hudson's defense and Clark's. While Clark might be able to hit as well as Hudson, or even outhit him, it might be immaterial if he's not deemed a major league caliber defensive second baseman.

It's not like Clark hits like Soriano and you can just elect to live with shakey defense. Hudson's bat with Soriano's glove (which may be an approximation for Clark) is not a great package.

Orlando's comment wasn't exactly flattering to himself.

JP dressed like a pimp, hot his pimp.

While I'm not Mr. Moffatt (though something tells me we're from the same hometown):

Here's the episode you're thinking of: Officially - "Homer The Great", Unofficially - "That Stonecutters Episode with Capt. Picard and the No-Homers club"

Here's the pertinent details:
Lenny: We call each other by number, not by name. Carl is Number
Fourteen, I'm Number Twelve. Burnsie's Number 29.
Homer: [incredulous] _You_ outrank Mr. Burns here?
Lenny: Sure. Watch -- hey, 29, get over here!
[Burns walks over; Lenny pinches his nose]
Burns: [shudders] Thank you, Sir. May I have another?
[Lenny kicks him in the butt; he falls over]
[ominous] Patience, Monty...climb the ladder.
-- The sword of Damocles returns, "Homer the Great"

Strangely, the only reference on snpp is in the comment for this sequence. Perhaps the snpp summaries have become fused with the actual episodes in your mind...

Maybe JP is waiting for O-Dog to eat the poisoned donut.

JP: There is a poison one, isn't there Law?

Keith Law: Err...no, sir. I discussed this with our lawyers and they consider it murder.

JP: Damn their oily hides!

Simpsons silliness aside, as long as the O-Dog doesn't end up in Boston (even if a trade yielded BK Kim or some such, I don't think I could bear to see Hudson manning second base for the Sox for the next five years) and the deal benefits the Jays, deal away I say!

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Strangely, the only reference on snpp is in the comment for this sequence. Perhaps the snpp summaries have become fused with the actual episodes in your mind...

I was thinking more of the episode Burns Verkaufen der Kraftwerk (a.k.a. the one where Germans buy the power plant).

Burns throws the kids out of his office and orders Smithers to ``restore my office, cancel all repairs, and rehire that chap who sassed me in the bar.'' Why? ``I keep my friends close, and my enemies closer. ... One day, when he least expects it...'' Burns stabs a doll on his desk.

Burns hovers the knife above the doll before he stabs it, which is why I was reminded of it. I don't think he ever uses the term "Sword of Damocles".

Cheers,

Mike

Do you think when Keith powers on his laptop there is an animated J.P. on his screen? "Hello Law, you...are...very good...at turning...me...on.

http://economics.about.com
Do you think when Keith powers on his laptop there is an animated J.P. on his screen? "Hello Law, you...are...very good...at turning...me...on.

No.

I'm of the mind that Orlando is pretty much giving us his peak production both offensively and defensively. And to be honest, I'm not sure that's enough, especially with the bat.

Independent of his position, he was below average in both OBP and SLG the last two years. If the right deal presents itself, I think you'd be crazy not to do it.

I can't find his defensive RARP numbers though, that may change my mind.

It's just that there is no reason for the Jays to be entertaining offers on Hudson and not on Wells.

Here's one reason: Vernon will be the most affordable superstar in baseball for the next four years. I'm sure I can come up with another reason, too.

Vernon's career line is .296/.332/.496, and he is improving offensively. He may improve further and become a superstar, or he may stabilize at a level between his 2002 and 2003 performance or at about his career line. The perception is that he is already there, and this perception could be used very effectively in trade negotiations.

it was probably a "reminder" that he should think first, talk second, or not at all.

Hudson's demotion after the infamous off-the-cuff remark had nothing to do with teaching him a lesson, though you can be sure he got some advice about media relations as part of his continuing development. More importantly, they didn't want to start his service-time clock in April, so he was going to Syracuse anyway. The other thing most people have conveniently forgotten is Orlando's batting average in the Grapefruit League, which at the time was identical from both sides of the plate -- .000, as in O-fer-Florida.

My feeling is that JP is not nearly as hot to move Hudson as the media make him out to be. That said, I'm not that concerned if he does deal O-Dog because JP always has a plan and has yet to fill one hole by creating another one (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on this). I don't see that Cat / Clark / Berg would be a viable option. My guess is that Orlando stays at least through this summer.

Mike Green - I understand your point about Wells perhaps being valued higher than his actual worth, but he did hit .317/.359/.550 at 24. Age 27 or 28 is usually when players typically hit their peak, so I think it's reasonable to expect Wells to improve some more.

It'd be tough to find equal value for a cheap All Star at a premium position. So even if Wells is overvalued, it'd be tough to find a match for a trade which is why you wouldn't hear his name in trades.

Plus there seems to be more teams trying to fill holes at 2B than in the OF right now.

I know that players hit their peak at age 27, and Vernon on balance is likely to do modestly better than .317/.359/.550 at some point between now and when he turns 30. He may very well do significantly better than that.

But, hey, Seattle was just looking for a centerfielder, and don't they have Rafael Soriano, Clint Nageotte, Travis Blackley and many other very highly regarded pitching prospects. I'm not saying that a deal could or should be worked out, but that it makes as much sense as all the talk about Hudson, which has come from many different sources.

I couldn't agree more with what Mike D said. JP scored huge with 5 year deal on Wells (Hinske might not be too great, but we'll wait and see).

Wells is as untradable as Halladay is in my books (which is tops).

These are the 2 players you build your team around.

Dunno where Mike Green got this idea, but it was a bad one.

-Danny

I'm not saying that a deal could or should be worked out, but that it makes as much sense as all the talk about Hudson, which has come from many different sources.

I don't disagree. I'm just naive enough to believe the Jays aren't shopping Hudson because it's been spectulated in the media that he has.

But, hey, Seattle was just looking for a centerfielder, and don't they have Rafael Soriano, Clint Nageotte, Travis Blackley and many other very highly regarded pitching prospects

Mike Green, I'd ask for the moon and stars for an excellent player, still improving, who is paid dramatically less than market value. Is there any more valuable trade commodity? It's pretty risky, don't you think, to trade that for potential and possibility?

More fundamentally, though, I'd like to reiterate a point I made back in July when one Bauxite suggested flipping Wells for Blanton and Crosby.

It's really problematic to sign a player to a long-term deal, and trade them very early in the contract when they're performing brilliantly both on and off the field. From our armchairs, we can think about constantly flipping talent around in order to make our team better. But in the real world, you'll simply lose credibility and trust with players.

Yes, Wells made a commitment to the Jays, who provided him with the security of a five-year contract. But the Jays also made a commitment to Wells -- to keep him happy in a city and organization where he feels comfortable. How would J.P. lock up talent in the future if he developed a reputation for shipping players and their families away whenever he sees shiny trinkets?

Obviously, there's a fine line between intangible concerns and illogical sentimentality. But Vernon's conducted himself with class; it doesn't seem to be unreasonable to treat him accordingly.

I'll get laughed at for this, but last time I checked, LA needed a second baseman, as they have Cabrera or Thurston or whoever.
How about Hudson for Gagne? What would be better than a Canadian super-closer pitching for Toronto?
Or maybe Shawn Green? Reunite him and Carlos?

Forget it, the Dodgers would never agree, but it would make things even after that horrible Prokopec for Quantrill/Izzy deal.

How about Hudson for Gagne? What would be better than a Canadian super-closer pitching for Toronto? Or maybe Shawn Green? Reunite him and Carlos?

Did Bavasi take a job in LA?

Hudson for Soriano would be great. I'm just having a hard time figuring out why Seattle needs Hudson when they have Boone unless they move the latter to third.

I think Hudson is underestimated offensively too...sure his overall numbers are not special but against righthanded pitchers he's as good a hitter as Todd Walker, which is a pretty good hitter. Rest him against tough lefties and you get pretty fine production at second for not a lot of dollars.

Assuming the Jays DO sign a Rich Aurilia or someone else who could play short full-time, that might open up second for Woodward who shouldn't have nearly as many throwing problems at that position. In that case they wouldn't lose much assuming Hill and Adams can be ready some time in 2005.

Either Bavari or Dan Duquette

Oops, make that Bavasi

Over the last 2 years there were Wells rumors as well. Vernon for Blalock was one such rumor plus a Vernon for Teixeira, Lewis and Drew Meyer rumor that seemed more fantasty at the time. After the year Vernon had last year I dont think he will be going anywhere for a long time. Maybe JP thinks if he trades Hudson for what he considers value that Hudson is quite easy to replace.

2 years ago in the spring it was rumored to be Blalock for Wells?? Who would you rather have now? Not that it matters now but a reliable source confirmed to me last spring that the Jays had tried to trade for Hank Blalock though who they had offered was not discussed.

Although Orlando hasn't been great, there is the potential for improvement. If the Jays feel that he has hit his ceiling, they should deal him while he as high market value... preferably in a dealinvolving a top pitching prospect from a team near Vancouver.

2 years ago in the spring it was rumored to be Blalock for Wells?? Who would you rather have now?

Blalock in 2003, age 22: .300/.350/.522
V-Wells in 2003, age 24: .317/.359/.550

Is that really so clear-cut?

The recently converted outfielder was one of the top 30 relievers in baseball according to BP. He aint no prospect no more.

Bavasi might overpay for mediocre talent, but if Gillick is still close to the front office, the Mariners aren't trading Soriano for Hudson.

The Toronto Sun reports this morning that the Red Sox are close to a deal with 2B Pokey Reese.
Hopefully that kills the O-Dog to Boston rumours, and pronto.

Hey Moffatt, FYI I think the snpp.com script is incomplete. Burns definitely does say something about the Sword of Damocles there. In fact, the way I came across this blog in the first place was because I was doing an internet search looking for that particular quote.