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By virtually any measure, it was a very good Winter Meetings for the Blue Jays. In the week leading up to the event and the weekend itself, the Jays grabbed the starter they wanted in Miguel Batista at a more than reasonable price, and added a solid reliever and possible closer in Justin Speier at little organizational cost. They also picked up an interesting arm in the Rule 5 Draft, while losing no one in return. The PTBNL count stands so far at Sandy Nin (confirmed), Dave Gassner (highly likely) and one more -- useful players with upside, but nobody critical to the team's future so far. Tim Worrell and Tony Graffanino would ahve made it a just about pefect session, but you can't always get what you want. So it's been a very good off-season -- but according to the local scribes, at least, it's not over yet.

Richard Griffin starts by chatting with Paul Godfrey, who is still a little too open with his thoughts about the Jays' main competitors. Gabbing about how the Red Sox and Yankees are getting older and slower is fine for a minuscule site like ours; but when that kind of talk comes from the President of the Blue Jays, it becomes locker-room (or at least front-office) bulletin board material. Griffin also comments that JP, while scrupulously honest that he's received no offers for Orlando Hudson, doesn't necessarily lay all his cards on the table either, as reports have him offering the Dog to various teams in a quest for pitching help.

Indeed, Bob Elliott at the Sun says the Blue Jays tried to interest the Mariners in Hudson in exchange for Rafael Soriano. That would be a reasonable try -- the M's new management seems to be pretty clueless -- but even Bill Bavasi said no to that deal, and rightly so: Soriano has front-of-the-rotation potential. Elliot also reports on talk that Hudson could be shipped to Boston, which is not a deal I'd like, even if it brought good pitching help like Scott Williamson or Byung-Hyun Kim to Toronto. If the Sox also get A-Rod, then you're looking at one of the best long-term defensive DP combinations in baseball since the days of Trammaker in Detroit. I do not like sending good players to division rivals, especially the one rival who figures to be the division powerhouse for the balance of the decade.

Meanwhile, Jeff Blair at the Globe reports that the Jays are preparing a serious run at Rich Aurilia, even to the point of "clearing salary" to make it happen. I've made my discomfort with Aurilia clear elsewhere at the Box: his defence is evidently below-average and his bat, with the exception of that one, magical, hit-behind-Barry season, is uninspiring. Aurilia's supposed to be a great clubhouse guy; that's all well and good to have, if it comes at a reasonable Bordickesque amount of $1M per year. If it starts running into the $3M range, and if it causes you to drop other useful players in an effort to keep costs under control, then I don't much like it at all.

These are all just reporters' reports, mind you, and though they're better informed than most of us, reporters can still get it wrong, if only because there are millions of rumours flying around at these events and they've gotta file something for deadline. So take all of the foregoing with more than just a grain of salt. But should these reports be accurate, then JP clearly has very little confidence in his middle infielders, which I don't really understand. Yes, Chris Woodward probably is stretched as an everyday starter, and Orlando Hudson should drop the switch-hitting altogether; but they're still capable of average all-around production, with the distinct possibility of further upside, at very little cost. Why would the Jays be in such an all-fired hurry to change that? The Aurilia talk in particular concerns me, especially since Blair reports the Jays are mulling a multi-year offer: what does this mean for Russ Adams and Aaron Hill? And if Hudson gets dealt, who precisely plays 2B? I like Adams more than most, but he is not ready for the Show, and names like Dave Berg, Howie Clark and especially Frank Catalanotto are not answers at all. Stopgap veterans like Aurilia are okay if necessary, but I'm not sure I see the necessity.

Anyway, this is all just speculation in the papers, so this post is speculation squared. But it's been a very good off-season for the club so far, and I'd hate to see it turn sour near the holidays. We shall have to wait and see.

Finally, here's a little more on newest Rule 5 pick Talley Haines: JP places him "between [Corey] Thurman and [Aquilino] Lopez" -- a better pitcher than the former, but with stuff less impressive than the latter. Haines' fastball doesn't register much above 91 on the gun, but he has the far more impressive ability to throw strikes and keep the ball in the park. His real first name is Joseph, by the way. I'd be quite interested in knowing where "Talley" comes from.
Aftermath | 84 comments | Create New Account
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_Robbie - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:05 AM EST (#82759) #
If there's any chance they could get Soriano, they should really push for it. If it means packaging Hudson and another decent prospect (obviously not Mcgowan, Rios...), then I think it's worth it. Soriano is goona be a great player....
_Rich - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:09 AM EST (#82760) #
I completely disagree about Soriano. He can barely handle second base on grass, never mind on turf. The last thing the Jays need is another poor defender, especially up the middle. The Yankees are title contenders. How does Hudson and a prospect help them?
_Robbie - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:11 AM EST (#82761) #
As for the idea of Aurilia, while I wouldn't be "angry" if he was signed --- a lot of it depends on the price (2 million is reasonable, but he'll probably cost much more than that) and I'm really not too high on him overall. Though his prodction has fallen dramatically, keep in mind that he did play at Pac Bell which is a pretty good Pitcher's Park. At the end of the day, the Jays are probably better left spending the money on another reliever (Arthur Rhodes? Mike DeJean? Kent Merker (lefty)? Dave Veres?).....
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:13 AM EST (#82762) #
http://economics.about.com
I completely disagree about Soriano. He can barely handle second base on grass, never mind on turf.

Consider he's a pitcher, I don't think it matters too much. :)

Mike
_Robbie - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:14 AM EST (#82763) #
#13072 Posted 12/16/2003 10:09 AM by Rich:
I completely disagree about Soriano. He can barely handle second base on grass, never mind on turf. The last thing the Jays need is another poor defender, especially up the middle. The Yankees are title contenders. How does Hudson and a prospect help them?
------
We're talking about Rafael Soriano (pitcher, Seattle); not Alfonso. If I'm not mistaken, a year and a halg ago he was offered at the trade deadline for Stewrt or Cruz, but the Jays were worried he was injured. His performance last year cleared that up I think...
Pistol - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:14 AM EST (#82764) #
Rich - It's Rafael Soriano they are after (the pitcher on the Mariners), not Alfonso (the free swinger on the Yanks).

Myself, I'd probably consider trading a top 5 Jays prospect for Soriano.
_Marco - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:23 AM EST (#82765) #
where's the love for hudson? while it's not surprising that his value can't quite bring a Rafael soriano, unless it is for that good of a deal, i don't want to see him go. he was an absolute stud a 2nd behind halladay last year. especially in the 2nd half of the year. it's been said many times here that he should scrap switch hitting and i agree...but i can't see liking a trade to boston. i know hill/adams else are close, but the jays still need his services now. and he's still young too (turned 26 last week)
_David Goodwin - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:23 AM EST (#82766) #
(posted this in the wrong thread earlier...)

Well, I guess this news gives occasion for us to start considering the merits of Rich Aurilia as a Fighting Jay for 2004 and perhaps beyond. Personally I am not too excited about this possibility, even if we are able to secure his services at a bargain-basement rate. As I'm relatively new to this stat-head world, I defer to other bauxites expertise in comparing the offensive and defensive merits of Aurilia and Woodward, but I hope we can stimulate some discussion of this. My sense is that Aurilia would still be a bit over-paid based on his one great year (2001). The rest of his career seems quite pedestrian. Can some one tell me what the timeline is supposed to look like on Russ Adams and Aaron Hill? Is Adams still considered a major-league calibre SS defensively? Perhaps J.P. and co. have soured on Woodward's potential to develop, or maybe they are overrating our chances to make a bit of a run in 2004 and feel Woodward is our main weakness. Anyhow, I found Blair's article to be interesting to say the least!
_S.K. - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:28 AM EST (#82767) #
Rich - if the Jays could get THAT Soriano for Hudson and a B prospect, they should do it. On the other hand, Brian Cashman shows no signs of being insane or addicted to narcotics, so I can't see what would possess him to do that.
I agree about the other Soriano, though, he's definitely worth Hudson and anyone outside of our top few youngsters. If that happens, Bavasi will officially be the stupidest GM in recent memory.

I liked Griffin's column today, he kept the axe-grinding to a bare minimum. I don't think Boston or the Yankees will particularly care about anything in the East except each other, so I wouldn't worry about Godfrey's comments coming back to haunt us. Unless we're still in the hunt in late July, in which case he will have been proven right =)
_Geoff - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:31 AM EST (#82768) #
The one thing about Aurilia is that he is a lefty-killer...considering that we are likely to lose significant production from LF, 3B, 2B, 1B and C when a lefty is on the mound, a lefty-killer who is still marginal against righties is useful for us

I'm happy with our bullpen as it stands, thus if we can get Aurilia for one year at any price I'd be fine with the deal - I don't care if Rogers goes overbudget to get Aurilia in the fold cause I don't think we have any other pressing needs (as long as we don't dump useful parts to add Aurilia)

Of course, it's likely Aurilia would want at least a two-year and likely a three-year deal...a two-year deal might not be the worst thing in the world...after all Russ Adams has yet to master AA so its a tough projection to see him as our starting shortstop by this time next year...but I wouldn't want to see Aurilia as our starting SS in 2006...but I think J.P. agrees with me on this, thus I can't imagine a three-year deal is in the cards

As for a Hudson deal...Offensively I don't think there's any dropoff from a Hudson/Berg platoon to a Howie/Berg platoon...defensively Howie Clark clearly isn't a league-leading defensive 2B...the only deal with Hudson I could see liking is packaging Orlando with Aquilino for a Soriano type...but I doubt the Mariners would want A-Lo back, so the word "type" should be highly emphasized...though I guess it could read "young, cheap closer type"
_S.K. - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:31 AM EST (#82769) #
Count me in the anti-Aurilia camp. As stated elsewhere, he'd be fine as a stopgap or cheap signing, but he shows no signs of being either. This would be uncharacteristic of JP, so I simply don't see it happening - Aurilia offers no real upgrade either defensively or offensively over Woodward in reputation or reality, so what's the point?
_Robbie - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:39 AM EST (#82770) #
#130710 Posted 12/16/2003 10:31 AM by Geoff:

The one thing about Aurilia is that he is a lefty-killer...considering that we are likely to lose significant production from LF, 3B, 2B, 1B and C when a lefty is on the mound, a lefty-killer who is still marginal against righties is useful for us
----------------
He hit .277 against both righties and lefties last year --- so I don't see how he could be characterized as a "lefty-killer."

Also, I wanted to comment on all the "back-loaded" contract the Jays have (Wells, Hinske, Batista, Aurilia?, Halladay will soon cost much more) --- the more they do this, the less they'll have when Delgado is freed, and hence, the less they'll have to re-sign him or pursure others. While it's obviously not any problem yet, the more backloading they do, the bigger hole they could be ultimately digging for themselves.
_King Rat - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:39 AM EST (#82771) #
If J.P. trades Hudson to Boston to free up salary room (I'm not sure this is why he'd do that, but it's implied in Griffin's article) so he can sign Rich freaking Aurilia to a multiyear contract, I will throw things.

The one gaping hole the Bosox, who as everyone notes are the likely long-term competition for Toronto, have is second base. Hudson would give them a cheap, at-least-average solution for that spot for at least the next few years. Given that all of the rumoured returning players in such a deal are good but not spectacular relief pitchers, a category of player J.P. has already gotten quite a few of in the last few days, and such a deal looks sketchy.

This is before we consider the fact that, at least in the implied causation of Griffin's article, it's to allow the Jays to commit to Rich Aurilia for three years. Aurilia's a decent player, and a one or two year contract, while a luxury in my view, wouldn't be a terrible idea. Three years?!?!?! Aside from blocking our shortstop prospects, it ties up a guy who doesn't look to be anything spectacular going forward for the beginning of what are likely to be the tail end years of his career.

Please don't misunderstand me. If trading Hudson were necessary to bring back a player with Soriano's potential, I'd do it, even though Hudson is my favourite Jay. But these moves just sound nuts.
_Scott - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:45 AM EST (#82772) #
I think there is more to this than most of us know. I would not be surprised to see it tied into Nomar/Manny/Arod deal. Signing Aurila would allow Woodward (along with backing up Rich) to slide over to second base along with Berg and Clark. Hudson goes to Boston for Greg Miller who is now rumoured to be going to LA for Nomar. Would anybody be up to trading Hudson for Miller?
_Robbie - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:47 AM EST (#82773) #
#130714 Posted 12/16/2003 10:45 AM by Scott:

I think there is more to this than most of us know. I would not be surprised to see it tied into Nomar/Manny/Arod deal. Signing Aurila would allow Woodward (along with backing up Rich) to slide over to second base along with Berg and Clark. Hudson goes to Boston for Greg Miller who is now rumoured to be going to LA for Nomar. Would anybody be up to trading Hudson for Miller?
-------------
A definitive Yes. He's one of the best prospects in the Majors --- much better outlook then O-dog.
_Geoff - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:49 AM EST (#82774) #
Robbie: Aurilia had .300 OPS difference between lefties and righties last year and has an .860 OPS against lefties over the last three years
_Ms Fan - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:51 AM EST (#82775) #
If you ask any M's fan, Bavasi is already the stupidest GM is history. Well, he may be neck and neck with the White Sox GM (Kenny Williams, I think?), but he is bad. When I sat down to read the days baseball news last night, I almost started crying. Raul Ibanez? Scott Spezio? McCracken? Trade Guillen for $7Mill Vizquel (not done yet, but probable.)? I am hoping and praying he does nothing stupid with all of our pitching prospects-- we have been saving them for years instead of trading them at the deadline, and I hope we don't see him ruin it. It's amazing how possible it is for him to ruin the franchise so quickly. These three year deals with mediocre to bad talent at over market value are going to kill the high-revenue yet tight budgeted M's. (They had the 2nd highest revenue last year, behind only the Yanks, and no one know where that money is.) They claim their payroll was $95 mill last year, but all legit ources pointed to high $80. Not very high for the 2nd highest revenue. And remember, they've got to pay 15 mil to Cirillo still, and 8 mill to washed up Sasaki. I'm gonna cry again.
Pistol - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:51 AM EST (#82776) #
where's the love for hudson?

I find it funny that whichever side of Hudson people are on they feel they are in the minority.

I can't imagine the Jays would go after a player in their mid 30s who is declining like Aurilia is (especially since he doesn't walk). Woodward is just as like to outperform Aurilia as Aurilia is likely to outperform Woodward.
_Robbie - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:53 AM EST (#82777) #
Yeah, he does have better power and OBP numbers --- but I'm not sure he's a complete "lefty-killer" though. I recognize your point and do agree with it to some extent...
_Ms Fan - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:55 AM EST (#82778) #
PS -- I recognize that the Jays (my second favorite team, since i moved back east) have a much smaller payroll, but they have an intelligent GM. Imagine what JP could do with 88 or 89 million. But the M's went and hired the village idiot.
Coach - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:56 AM EST (#82779) #
Aurilia's "one great year" has been followed by two when he played through nagging injuries. If he's finally healthy, I think he can be expected to get back into the 800+ OPS class, especially in the Jays lineup, but I don't think Toronto should pay him for that .941 in 2001, and I wouldn't commit to three years.

I liked J.P.'s answer -- "Punt?" -- to who would play 2B if Hudson is dealt. He's such a kidder. I think they would take a long look at Sequea, and I'd be happier with Dave Berg than I was with Joe Lawrence. That failed experiment was just two years ago; hard to believe how things have changed. Personally, if both these things occur (Aurilia in, Hudson out) I'd give Woody the first shot. However, none of this has happened yet, and some of us are getting quite worked up about mere rumours.
_Marco - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 11:09 AM EST (#82780) #
so the question could perhaps be: is aurilia and berg/woody better than woody and hudson? and it could also be dependent on the arod trade. i've thought from the beginning that this thing won't happen-too much red tape, but i'm starting to change my opinion on that. it very well may. it'd be interesting if the jays were one of the teams in on it. kinda cool to be involved (albeit a small player) in the biggest trade in baseball history (perhaps major sports?). what are the chances of that trade happening?
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 11:21 AM EST (#82781) #
http://economics.about.com
An Aurilia deal make some sense, I suppose, but they'd have to get him pretty cheaply for him to be worth it.

In the last 3 years, he's hit .312 at home and .267 on the road. His road stats are:

267/317/460 777OPS 877AB, 40HR.

Woodward's career stats:

251/305/411 716OPS 854AB, 25HR.

Woodward has a reverse platoon split, but I can't imagine the Jays only playing Aurilia against lefties.

Maybe they are planning on moving Hudson and sliding Woodward to second. I really like Hudson so I think it'd probably be a mistake, but of course it depends what they get for him.

Mike
_Jonny German - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 11:53 AM EST (#82782) #
I'd be quite interested in knowing where "Talley" comes from.

According to John Lott in the National Post, it's his middle name. Disappointed?

Lott also reports the Jays have $2.2M left to spend, and that sounds about right to me given a $50M payroll and $7M to Doc.
_Lefty - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 11:54 AM EST (#82783) #
Is anyone else wondering whats going on in Woody's mind right now. It seems to me that this guys going to be super motivated next season.
_Robbie - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 11:56 AM EST (#82784) #
Instead of going after a guy like Aurilia, why don't the Jays sign a reliever and a guy like Mark Mclemore. Mclemore is cheap, would be a decent platoon with Woodward, offers great speed off the bench and is a switch hitter. I know his offensive production was a little weaker last year, but the Jays money would probably be better spent on Mclemore and another reliever rather than overpaying for a veteran like Aurilia. And Mclemore is so versatile too and gives the jays options throughout the field. Just my thoughts...
_Jordan - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 12:04 PM EST (#82785) #
Disappointed?

Very. I was expecting something colourful and wacky like "Oil Can." The Jays haven't had a good nickname in their lineup since Mookie -- and he was a loaner from the Mets anyway.
_S.K. - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 12:17 PM EST (#82786) #
"Motivated" was not the word I was thinking of to describe Woodward next season. "Hurt" or "Angry" would be more like it. Frankly, Woodward doesn't strike me as one of those ultra-competitive types who would get an adrenaline-rush from this kind of thing; unfortunately, I'm afraid he might lose his confidence or whatever work ethic he may have had.
We'll see.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 12:21 PM EST (#82787) #
For infielders particularly, you have to take into account both offense and defence. By objective measures, the infielders rate as follows on defence:

Hinske- the worst defensive third baseman in the league or close to it in both 2002 and 2003 (we all have hopes that his modest improvement towards the end of 2002 were impeded by his 2003 injury and will be resumed in 2004)

Woodward- modestly below average defensive shortstop

Aurilia- modestly below average defensive shortstop

Hudson- the best defensive second baseman in the majors or close to it in 2002 and 2003 combined

Berg- modestly below average defensive second baseman.

It makes no sense to trade Hudson now, because the Jays have no realistic alternative which would not result in a poor defensive infield in 2004. This may or may not be the case at the end of 2004 depending on the development of the middle infield prospects, Adams Hill and Sequea. Pity Halladay and Batista if they do trade Hudson now.

I was quite happy with this off-season until the Ligtenberg acquisition. I wish now that JP had slowed down a bit after the brilliant Batista deal to re-assess. A bullpen of Lopez, Kershner, Politte, Hendrickson, Haines and Walker, with a re-signed Halladay, and the money for a cheaper SS/3B solution such as Graffanino, would have made me a lot happier, than the current situation. Oh, well.
_Norm - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 12:27 PM EST (#82788) #
Griffin ???? Why bother quoting anything that MEDIOT writes???
_Lefty - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 12:46 PM EST (#82789) #
SK: You might well be right, Woodward has certainly had a can tied to his rear end since last June. I can actually see him being a soldier last season deferring to the clubs use of Bordick, a player in his last season, strong defensively and no real drop-off at the plate but going into this season all bets are off.

Put me in the camp of leaving the middle infield alone. Lets see how they perform.
_S.K. - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 01:02 PM EST (#82790) #
Norm: when he writes something worthwhile or interesting, why not quote it and discuss it? Ignoring people we don't like would make us worse than RG.
_Mike B - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 01:07 PM EST (#82791) #
Mike Green,

I know you're a big Hudson fan and, since the season ended, have made several valid points in support of keeping him in a Blue Jays' uniform; however, would you really not make a Hudson for Soriano swap? Soriano appears to have the potential to be one of the best closers in the AL or a very dependable starter. In any event, he's got a far greater likelihood of becoming an all-star player in this league than Hudson. Hudson is very solid defensively but seems to lack star potential with the bat (his fortunes could improve, however, if he gives up the switch hitting). If that's what it would take, I would be inclined to give up Hudson and a good prospect (however, not anyone from the BB consensus top 5 prospects) to get Soriano.
Craig B - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 01:17 PM EST (#82792) #
Ignoring people we don't like would make us worse than RG.

Plus, not everyone thinks the same way about him.
Pistol - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 01:17 PM EST (#82793) #
Unless there was a 3rd team involved why would Seattle be interested in Hudson when they have Boone at 2B?
_pete_the_donkey - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 01:17 PM EST (#82794) #
Count me in for Aurilia.
The guy was a monster on Playstation 2 for me last year.
Named For Hank - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 01:17 PM EST (#82795) #
If Hudson were to be traded, would that be it for the O-Dog Combo at the concession stand? Where else in Canada can you pay ten dollars for two tiny hot dogs and a Coke?
_dp - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 01:21 PM EST (#82796) #
I don't understand the desire to lose Hudson and screw with Doc's success. I'd be interested to see just how much Hudson impacted him (ERA w/Hudson vs. ERA w/out), but I suspect his fielding acumen had a substantial effect on Doc's Cy season. That's why I think its important that, rather than downgrade the infield by trading Hudson, we upgrade it by getting a better SS than Woodward. It seems crucial right now that JP shows Doc he's the franchise's future by putting a solid infield defense behind him.

But maybe I'm wrong.
_Mike B - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 01:29 PM EST (#82797) #
dp, I don't in any way deny that trading Hudson would make the Jays' infield defense worse; however, when making trades, I think you have to see how the move will impact the overall quality of a team. In this case, the Jays would get worse at infield defense and better at pitching. On an overall basis, I think that the improvement in pitching will have a greater positive impact than the loss of a good glove at second will have a negative impact.
_Robbie - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 01:35 PM EST (#82799) #
#130738 Posted 12/16/2003 01:21 PM by dp:

I don't understand the desire to lose Hudson and screw with Doc's success. I'd be interested to see just how much Hudson impacted him (ERA w/Hudson vs. ERA w/out), but I suspect his fielding acumen had a substantial effect on Doc's Cy season. That's why I think its important that, rather than downgrade the infield by trading Hudson, we upgrade it by getting a better SS than Woodward. It seems crucial right now that JP shows Doc he's the franchise's future by putting a solid infield defense behind him.

But maybe I'm wrong.
---------------
I don't think you are. Hudson could easily hit .290 and moreso, even when you compare O-dog's performance at AAA to how Adams ("his future replacement") is performing at lower levels, I think there's little doubt O-dog is much better offensively. This doesn't even account for Hudson's defensive abilities. Unless you're blown away with a Soriano type deal (even if it involves others), I just don't think you trade Hudson.
On the other hand, I don't think Woodward is a long-term solution or even a short-term one, and I think something has to be done there. I don't "love" Aurilia, but to believe that on a max 2-year deal at LESS than 3 million per, he'd be pretty alright. But then again, If Scott Spezcio is getting 3-year deals at 9-million, I would imagine that Aurilia mnight even get more than that....
_Robbie - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 01:36 PM EST (#82800) #
#130740 Posted 12/16/2003 01:34 PM by Jimmy Key's Christmas Lights:

Let's get serious here. If JP has a plan to trade Hudson in order to facilitate signing Rich Aurilia, do you really think he'd let Griffin/Baker in on it? I would imagine the last people in Toronto to get any information from JP are the two 'White Jays' boys. They played the race card, they lost, and they're so far on the outside now all they can do is snipe.
-----------
It was Geoff Blair of The Globe and Mail that came up with the story --- not the Star.
_Rusty Priske - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 01:40 PM EST (#82801) #
How do you pronounce Justin Speier's last name? I know I am probably wrong, but I have been pronoucing it like Spire and that gives him an amazing name.

Just Inspire.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 01:44 PM EST (#82802) #
Mike B,

Would I trade Hudson for Rafael Soriano? I'd certainly consider it, but first I would have a deal of a pitching prospect like McGowan or Bush for a fine second baseman ready. It makes no sense to have 5 great pitching prospects and no infield to play behind them.
_Rich - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 01:49 PM EST (#82803) #
Can someone please pass the salt? My foot tastes a bit dry. Maybe next time I will actually try and read the top of the thread before posting.

Obviously Soriano, R. would look good in a new Jays uniform, but it probably has as much chance of happening as the infamous Stewart for Pineiro rumour.

I'll believe the Aurilia signing only when and if it happens. I don't see JP committing $3 million per to a guy whose best days are likely behind him and who is no defensive upgrade at a key position.
_Robbie - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 02:05 PM EST (#82804) #
WINNERS
Blue Jays. Miguel Batista (lowest ERA of any free-agent pitcher), Ted Lilly and Pat Hentgen fortify the rotation at low costs. If it somehow can snag free-agent shortstop Rich Aurilia, Toronto will become a legit wild-card contender. "The Blue Jays have made better moves -- considering their resources -- than anybody else," said one AL GM.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2003/writers/tom_verducci/12/16/insider/index.html
_Cristian - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 02:07 PM EST (#82805) #
I highly doubt that the Jays do anything until after 2 things happen: the non-tender deadline passes and the Arod-Manny Megadeal is finished. After a deal that has the potential to involve so many teams, JP will be in a better position to analyze other teams' needs and see if any trade opportunities arise. It's also possible that several backup SS types will come on the market. Personally, I'd like to see Pokey Reese come to Toronto as a backup SS.

P.S. The Arod-Manny Megadeal sounds like something you pick up at KFC. "I'll give you Arod for Manny but only if you make him extra crispy and throw in a side order of coleslaw."
_3 way fan - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 02:14 PM EST (#82806) #
Pistol,

What if the deal was RSoriano to Toronto, Boone to Boston and both Kim and Hudson and 2 prospects (1 Bos, 1 Tor) to Seattle?

Boston gets the best player but big salary too, Seattle frees up money to sign a "closer" and maybe another bat and the Jays get a young pitcher...

I know, I know, but it's fun!
_benum - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 02:32 PM EST (#82807) #
#130740 Posted 12/16/2003 01:34 PM by Jimmy Key's Christmas Lights:

Sorry but it's the policy of this site that there should be no posting as a real persons Christmas lights. It is okay to post as the inatimite object of a fictional handle however (such as "Penguinmobiles Christmas lights" or "RETARDOS Chanukah Menorrah"). This will be clarified in an upcoming FAQ.
Pistol - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 02:35 PM EST (#82808) #
It makes no sense to have 5 great pitching prospects and no infield to play behind them.

But I think it's much, much easier to find a good fielding middle infielder than it is to find a top pitching prospect (and I'd say Soriano is more than just a prospect now).

Hell, you could probably get Pokey Reese for $1.5 million today and not miss a beat defensively at 2B. Rey Sanchez went for a reasonable price last week. You can't sign anyone like Soriano for a cheap price.

FWIW - I'm not against trading Hudson, I just think he's undervalued by many in these parts because of his defense.
_Blue in SK - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 03:00 PM EST (#82809) #
The interview with Godfrey has me worried. When discussing Delgado, he makes it seem as though it is a given that Carlos will be set free after this year. I certainly hope they do everything they can to keep Carlos a Jay for life. The market has not really been set for power hitters, except for Tejeda's signing. And, that was for about $12M for a guy entering his prime whereas Delgado will be on the wrong side of 30. Oh, forgot about Sheffield and his 3 years at $39M.

Offer Carlos 3 years at $10M per and see what happens maybe he'll give them a home town discount. I know that he will likely end up elseswhere but you have to try to sign him, don't you?

If we can re-sign him, at $10M that gives the Jays an extra $8.5M for next season with a big portion of that taken up by Doc and Batista and the escalating salaries of Hinske and Wells. The kids will be knocking on the door for spots in the rotation (B.A.M.) and IF (Adams, Hill) and OF (Gross, Rios) and at catcher (Q and Cash), so you can always let Cat, Meyers, Wilson, Woody and Berg go and free up an additional $4-5M in salary room.

Can't believe it, Spring Training is still 2 months away and already I'm worried about next year's budget.
_JayFan0912 - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 03:30 PM EST (#82810) #
Just curious, what do people on this board think about reacquiring felipe lopez. He was solid with the glove, a lot of untapped offensive potential, and he earns the minimum.

Looking at our rotation, Jason Arnold seems redundant with the acquisition of batista, so perhaps JA for felipe might work.
_Rich - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 03:34 PM EST (#82811) #
I wouldn't worry too much about what Godfrey says about Delgado. I'm sure after this season they will offer Carlos a decent deal; the questions will be whether or not the club takes another step forward and looks ready contend, and how willing he is to take less dough to stay here. I really hope Carlos stays; .300 / .400 / .600 hitters don't grow on trees. Losing Giambi almost single-handedly turned Oakland from a good offensive club into a poor one.
_Donkit R.K. - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 03:34 PM EST (#82812) #
I'd like to see Aurilia arrive in T-O, but only on the cheap. Say, two years at no more than 5 combined million. If he needs more years OR dollars than that, I hope J.P. backs away slowly. BTW, how can he play 3B?
_jim854 - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 03:55 PM EST (#82813) #
It is being reported in the Boston press that the Sox are going to announce shortly the trade of Mark Bellhorn from the Rockies to Boston to play 2nd base.

So no need to worry about losing the O-Dog the Boston! That just ain't gonna happen and I'm glad!
Mike D - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 04:00 PM EST (#82814) #
Ah, Bellhorn. Everybody's favourite 2002 fantasy baseball surprise...and 2003 fantasy baseball disaster.
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 04:11 PM EST (#82815) #
http://economics.about.com
Just curious, what do people on this board think about reacquiring felipe lopez. He was solid with the glove, a lot of untapped offensive potential, and he earns the minimum.

You mean the guy who hit .218 last year and was banished to the minors?

I think you could get him for a bag of rags and a case of white board markers. From what I've read on a couple of Reds blogs, he probably won't make the team next year.

Mike
Thomas - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 04:12 PM EST (#82816) #
I wouldn't support reacquiring Felipe at all. Pitching prospects don't grow on trees, and JP values Arnold quite highly, more than most prospect publications seem too. Regardless, Hentgen won't be around forever, many pitching prospects get derailed by injury and despite Josh Towers recent success and even though we are deep at pitching in the minors, we don't need to trade one of our better prospects for the likes of Lopez. There is no indication Lopez has learned how to hit yet, and by all accounts he is a negative influence in the clubhouse, which is something JP takes into account to a degree.

I'd rather take my chance with Sequa or Alvarez than trade Arnold for Lopez, and I bet they'd put up similar stats. Aurilia could be a decent signing, especially if he has struggled with injureies the last two years, but I echo the comments about signing him only at a very reasonable price.

Seeing what Bavasi has done so far I'd push a Hudson and X for Soriano swap. A rotation of Doc, Batista, Soriano, Lilly, Hentgen would be very good, and it'd be worth the offensive/defensive downgrade of having Berg and Clark play second for the year.
Joe - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 04:26 PM EST (#82817) #
http://me.woot.net
I think you could get him for a bag of rags and a case of white board markers.
I couldn't help but smile at this, Mike, as it seems so much like you looked around the room to see what of little worth you could find to use as an example :)
_dp - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 04:38 PM EST (#82818) #
As pretty much the only Felipe Booster on this board, I'd like to see what he can do if he came cheap. He was a mess defensively and offensively last year, but he's still young and athletic...

Flame away.
_JayFan0912 - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 04:54 PM EST (#82819) #
O-Dog for Soriano ... you must be joking. Seattle has an all star at that position, a fireballer with the stats soriano put up is much more valuable than any 2nd baseman (I wouldn't trade soriano for boone) especially when he is destined for the starting rotation, and on top of all that he makes the minimum.

You are probably right, lopez may not be the answer. But, we have no really good defensive ss (with enough offence) in the minors with the exception of peralta (rookie ball). Which is why I think the jays should get one, either by trade of by free agency. It is essential we get one; ever since jp came up we only get groundball pitchers (in trades), and from the minor league stats, our prospects are made/taught to be ground ball pitchers. A good defence in the infield becomes essential with these pitchers.

Think about this, once delgado leaves, hinske will be moved to first (should defend well there), o-dog will probably take 3rd (untill hill comes up), with russ adams taking 2nd. But who is the ss ?

If I were jp, when the time is right, I would try to trade o-dog for a ss prospect that is ready for the jump or replace delgado with a high quality ss (nomar ??) in the lineup.
_Dr B - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 05:00 PM EST (#82820) #
From the TO Sun an article. I think the article has been posted before, but this is the bit that interested me.

Reliever Cliff Politte, the darling of the Toronto bullpen in 2002 but the dumpling this season, was designated for assignment, which means he could be dealt before Saturday's non-tender date for 2004 contracts. If not, he will be non-tendered.

Only the Houston Astros have an interest in Politte, but they will wait until after the non-tender date.


So, some people have posted some not entirely convincing reasons why Politte should be non-tendered (I think it's a shame, though not the end of the world) when there are probably candidates better suited to be bumped. Let's face it Talley Haines essentially replaces Politte; he'll be cheaper, but I wouldn't bet much money on him being better than Politte. I think Politte has a better chance of being good than Haines or Walker (or even Miller who was quite good last year).

But the interesting thing here is that the Astros are going to be patient enough for Politte to become available. The Jays were not patient enough to wait for Spiers. While, I haven't checked Spiers stats with a fine toothed comb, are so many people going to be fighting over him that the Jays wouldn't get him if they had waited? Admittedly, Hendrickson is a small price to pay (Sandy Nin stings a little), but since most of the important pieces are in place for the Jays why not sit back and see who falls out? I think getting burnt last year with the bullpen is making JP impatient this year.

Still, while I'm a little bit unhappy about Politte, this reconstruction job has gone very well for the Jays. It's looking good for 2004!
_Nigel - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 05:21 PM EST (#82821) #
Dr. B, one small difference between Speier and Politte is that because Speier actually pitched well last season the chances of him being non-tendered by Colorado were non-existant. The same cannot be said of Politte. Houston is simply waiting for Politte to be non-tendered by Toronto to make him a free agent. Speier was not going to become a free agent. I happen to agree with your point about Politte not being the one to go here.
_Ms Fan - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 05:43 PM EST (#82822) #
The M's will not trade Soriano. Not for Hudson, Wells, and Delgado. Well, maybe for that. He is starter in the Ven. League, and has an ERA of 0. Yes, zero. He'll most likely take Freddy Garcia's place in the rotation.
_Kristian - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 06:01 PM EST (#82823) #
M's Fan is right there is no way Soriano goes for Hudson or almost anyone. Its very easy to replace Hudson's defence but very hard to find a pitcher who can either close or be a #3 starter.
_Scott Lucas - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 06:19 PM EST (#82824) #
Craig B - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 06:23 PM EST (#82825) #
I couldn't help but smile at this, Mike, as it seems so much like you looked around the room to see what of little worth you could find to use as an example :)

BUILD YOUR METAPHORS THE MIKE MOFFATT WAY

Just look around your office and find two things of dubious value!

...for a stuffed penguin and a half-full bottle of grapefruit juice.

...for a Jerry Stackhouse basketball card and an expired copy of the Income Tax Act...

...for a bamboo backscratcher and a dead houseplant...

...for a factory-second coffee mug and an old recycling bin...

...for a pile of scrap paper and a reconditioned toner cartridge...

...for a Harvey's coupon and an autographed picture of Burley...
_Cristian - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 06:50 PM EST (#82826) #
"Jerry Stackhouse basketball card", "expired copy of the Income Tax Act", "autographed picture of Burley"

Now Craig, you aren't looking around your office looking for items of little worth in order to make fun of Mike's metaphors are you? Or are all your copies of the ITA shiny and up to date?
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 07:05 PM EST (#82827) #
http://economics.about.com
an autographed picture of Burley

Actually it's an autographed picture of Kevin Smith. I see how you'd make that mistake, though.

If I used items around my desk, it'd be an ashtray full of superballs, pictures of my 18 month old niece, a copy of XTC's Go 2 album, and yes, an autographed picture of Kevin Smith!

The "bag of rags" comment I've been using for years. It was stolen from a late 1980's issue of Baseball Cards magazine where Constant Rater mentioned that anyone could have gotten Howard Johnson from the Mets in exchange for "a bag of oily rags".

When I was at Queen's, we always joked about what it would be like if schools could trade grad students to other schools.. I'm sorry Armstrong, this is the toughest part of my job... you've been dealt to Concordia. We were discussing what would be the most humiliating (yet realistic) thing to be traded for, and we all agreed that a box of whiteboard markers was as low as you could sink.

Mike
_Mick - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 08:04 PM EST (#82828) #
and a case of white board markers.

Mike, c'mon. Da Box has had just about enough of the race card being played here. I don't really think it matters that it's a "white" board, as long as it does the job. Go into any school anywhere -- Toronto, Milwaukee, Dallas (well, maybe not Dallas) -- and you're quite likely to find a plethors of blackboards. But in this particular case, the fact that the board is white is immaterial.

I suppose it's true that some city, somewhere has to have the most white boards, and if it's Toronto ... well, maybe it's worth looking into.
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 08:09 PM EST (#82829) #
http://economics.about.com
you're quite likely to find a plethors of blackboards

The racially sensitive term is Africanamericanboards.

Thank you for your consideration,

Mike
_shill - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 08:43 PM EST (#82830) #
Just thought I'd chime in here with two cents related to O-Dog... who I'm also a big fan of. It just seems to me that 29 other teams would not even talk about trading this guy. Not only is he outstanding defensively, but he consistently pounds the ball on a rope from the left (not his 'natural') side and has a track record of hitting very well through the minors. It could very likely be that a minor adjustment from the right side of the plate gets him back on track as an effective switch hitter. He's also got great upside from a marketing standpoint... crooked hat and all, speaks his own entertainig version of the English language, etc. Taking his age into consideration, there's a LOT to like about the O-Dog's upside.

Believing that where there's smoke there's fire... it is probably safe to assume that JP has had some discussions about moving him. And as we've established here... his best 2B option after O-Dog would be to "punt". I just wonder if JP continues to hold personal ill-will towards the kid as a result of the whole 'pimp' issue last year.

JP, if you're reading, show some of the character you obviously value and forgive the guy. Hold on to him!

If you really want to deal an important piece of your team.. go pick up Bobby Crosby, Rich Harden, and Joe Blanton from Billy Beane in return for Vernon Wells.
_ainge_fan - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:11 PM EST (#82831) #
O-Dawg's a nice player. While I don't think he is indispensible, I think it's reasonable to think that his offence will improve next year, mainly that his walk rates will increase towards the 1 per 10ab plateau/mandate (he did it in AA & AAA). His average and slugging numbers will probably jump as well with more experience - maybe 20 and 30-40 points respectively.
It's his infield D, though, that's his most valuable asset for the Fighting Jays, and I think this becomes even more valuable in '05 - the target date for the Jays to compete.
Important to keep in mind that it's likely that alot of young players will likely be mixing in between mid '04 and the beginning of '05, including several exciting young pitchers - when better D will be even more important. Hudson is important here, since he's easily the best defender on the infield - and also because he has experience at third. He might be the answer there, especially if Delgado leaves (when Phelps/Hinske probably split 1st and DH). This will depend on: A)how Hinske does on D this year, and B) how well Russ Adams develops (unless some of the Delgado money is rerouted to a middle infielder). Either way, it will be valuable to keep this option open.
Sorry Mike Green if you posted this already, I know how you feel about Hinske's glove and its impact - couldn't remember if you noted this option or not.
_Spicol - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:38 PM EST (#82832) #
I want to go on record as saying I'd like to see the Jays hang on to Orlando but I'm also of the opinion that few, if any, players are untouchable. I'd have to see what the return was.

Bob Elliot wrote today that the Jays only have Howie Clark and Dave Berg as options to play 2nd if Hudson is moved. He infers that alternative isn't good enough and the Jays would have to look "elsewhere" for a starting second baseman. Whether you like the idea of trading Hudson or not, what do people think about that? If Hudson is traded, can the Jays survive with a combo of Clark and Berg at 2nd?
Craig B - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 10:50 PM EST (#82833) #
Or are all your copies of the ITA shiny and up to date?

I have about 10 old copies of the ITA between where I am now (home) and my office. That number would be much higher if I hadn't thrown away my student copies.

When I was at Queen's, we always joked about what it would be like if schools could trade grad students to other schools..

Heh heh... until you get tenure, Moffatt, you're always going to be one step away from being claimed by Brock (or even Winnipeg) on waivers and shoved into a room at 8 every morning to lecture on Micro 101 to six hundred C students. So buckle down and get back to work.
_MR. OCTOBER - Tuesday, December 16 2003 @ 11:06 PM EST (#82834) #
CAN I HAVE HAVE SOME GLUE TOO?

REACQUIRE FELIPE, I DONT THINK SO!
Craig B - Wednesday, December 17 2003 @ 09:11 AM EST (#82835) #
Stop shouting please.
Pepper Moffatt - Wednesday, December 17 2003 @ 10:17 AM EST (#82836) #
http://economics.about.com
Heh heh... until you get tenure, Moffatt, you're always going to be one step away from being claimed by Brock (or even Winnipeg) on waivers and shoved into a room at 8 every morning to lecture on Micro 101 to six hundred C students.

Nah, I'm much too valuable to the school. I do pretty much every disgusting job nobody wants, plus I work for coffee. You gotta have guys like me around to stay under the cap. :)

Don't knock Winnipeg's U Manitoba. I quite like their undergraduate economics program, and they like me.

Mike
Craig B - Wednesday, December 17 2003 @ 10:46 AM EST (#82837) #
I wasn't talking about Manitoba, though, I was talking about U of Winnipeg.

Anyway, I think publishing the quote from your rave review means that you like them... not necessarily the other way 'round. Maybe they're onto you already.
Pepper Moffatt - Wednesday, December 17 2003 @ 11:09 AM EST (#82838) #
http://economics.about.com
Anyway, I think publishing the quote from your rave review means that you like them... not necessarily the other way 'round. Maybe they're onto you already.

They should be onto me by now. They're a pretty smart crowd.

I just love how they wrote "Here's What The Experts are Saying" and they have quotes from two very famous economists, and my quote stuck in the middle. It's like saying "Greg Maddux, Some A-Ball Pitcher Who Went 5 and 10 Last Year, and Roger Clemens All Agree.. PowerSauce Bars Can't Be Beat!"

Needless to say I'm getting a lot of jokes at my expense about it. :)

Mike
Thomas - Wednesday, December 17 2003 @ 02:41 PM EST (#82839) #
But what are that A ball pitcher's K/9 and BB/9 rate, how old is he and does he have an effective third pitch?
_Rob - Wednesday, December 17 2003 @ 10:26 PM EST (#82840) #
What's this about "White Jays" being Globe writer Jeff Blair's idea? I thought it was Baker right from the start.

I think that guy's a little confused...unless he knows something we don't. Can you enlighten us, Robbie? Or anyone else who knows something about this?
_Matthew E - Wednesday, December 17 2003 @ 10:34 PM EST (#82841) #
I think he means the Hudson story was Blair's.
_Steve Z - Thursday, December 18 2003 @ 08:53 AM EST (#82842) #
IIRC, The Hudson quote was reported by Dave Feschuck (formerly of the Post, now with the Star).
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