Does this clear the way for a Vidro to Yanks, Soriano to Spos trade that has been speculated. They could then move Soriano to CF, Wilkerson to RF and Rivera/Sledge to LF and Fox slides into 2B. The Spos clear some more salary, and maybe that allows them to afford Armas and Hernandez for this year.

There isn't a lot of IFs out there this year, as we have seen when speculating about a backup SS for the Jays.

Just a thought.

http://economics.about.com
What a depressing mess of a once great franchise. I'm still surprised about how well Minaya did in the Vaz-Johnson trade, tho.

Mike

I agree with Mike, it was the Spos that got me really interested in following MLB. And then came Blue Monday! I long for the days the days of Gary Carter, Tim Wallach, Tim Raines, Andre Dawson, Warren Cromartie, Steve Rogers, Jeff Reardon,

for those that don't remember or are too young.

"The day that will simply be remembered as "Blue Monday" by Expos' fans comes when Dodgers' outfielder Rick Monday crushes the Expos' hopes of a trip to the World Series with a game-winning, ninth-inning home run off Steve Rogers in the fifth and deciding game of the NL Championship Series at Olympic Stadium. The Dodgers capture the NLCS 3 games to 2 and will go on to beat the Yankees in the Fall Classic. For the third consecutive season, the Expos are eliminated by the eventual World Series Champions."

I watched that game in the AV room of the high school library, with some teachers and a few other students. I will never forget the way I felt when Rick Monday hit that homer. Kinda like when Carter went deep against the Phillie to win the World Series, except in reverse.

AWESOME EXPOS NEWS

I missed this yesterday, but apparently Tim Raines is going to manage Brevard County in the FSL this year. This is gerat news for the franchise, to have one of the all-time greats coming back to the organization.

I couldn't agree more Craig. He was a smart ballplayer, as well as a gifted athlete.

Watching a Tim Raines triple was one of my favorite plays in baseball. Now, there's a topic for a cold January day after the Winter meetings are over.

I believe both Brad Wilkerson and Terrmel Sledge can play CF. If they trot out an Endy-less lineup on most nights, they have a chance to score some runs this year.

Brad Wilkerson can play centerfield, yes, in the sense that Brian Giles can play centerfield, or Bobby Abreu can play centerfield.

Any corner OF can "play" centerfield, all you have to do is stand him between the other two outfielders. But Wilkerson is absolutely inadequate as a defensive centerfielder. He's barely adequate in left.

Sledge, as far as I know, can play centerfield, though apparently he is not Grade-A defensive material there.

Is this the Fox who was something of a spare outfielder for Oakland in the early '90s? Who'm I thinking of?

I thought he was an infielder with the Marlins.

That's Eric Fox.

Expos signed Carl Everett

I was just coming here to post about Everett. I guess they're getting him to replace Guerrero. Talk about adding insult to injury.

The price for Carl is alright. $7MM over two seasons with an option for a third.

Umm... no need for a conspiracy theory here. Minaya is obviously trying to win. He's just not particularly good at it, he has this idiot-savant quality that lets him turn it on at times, while mostly remaining totally unimpressive as a GM.

Not bringing up any minor leaguers was a conscious choice on OM's part. He knew he had stretched the salary budget to the breaking point and there was no room for $50,000 for Pascucci or Sledge or anybody. That was just how he elected to spend his budget; in the final analysis, bringing in Todd Zeile may have helped them slightly more than a September callup or two would have.

Anyway, Fox has to be "brought up" - so he better help them. Fox was selected in the major-league portion of the Rule 5... which means he must spend all season on the 25-man roster. So the Expos obviously intend for Fox to back up in the infield.

Man, the 'Spos are busy today... apparently Michael Barrett was traded to the A's for a PTBNL today as well... source is FAN 590 and TSN and SF Chronicle. Looks solid.

Craig,

I know it's anecdotal but I saw Terrmel in centerfield at Telus Field here in Edmonton and he didn't look lost out there.

I really don't like the Carl Everett signing because I don't like any move that pushes Terrmel further down the depth chart. I want to see him play in the majors, damn it.

Andy Fox,

This may be just me and I'm not an official ZLC member but I would appreciate it if you didn't post impersonating the subject of what you want to write about. If you think Andy Fox is cheap then write, "I think Andy Fox is cheap." There is no need to pretend to be Andy Fox and write, "I'm cheap." If I want to hear from Andy Fox directly, I'll go to baseballprimer. However, I rarely go to the discussion threads there because it's these kind of first person posts that make primer unreadable.

You're right, Cristian. I re-edited Andy's comment.

Just a reminder to everyone of our policy - which is evolving into official BBox policy - impersonating real people is not welcome here.

Talk about adding insult to injury.

.. and with Carl Everett around, there's not likely to be a shortage of insults or injuries.

"impersonating real people is not welcome here."

gotta love the 'net. impersonating an unreal person is fine? so can i pretend to be aquaman?

impersonating an unreal person is fine? so can i pretend to be aquaman?

What, Aquaman's not real all of a sudden?

I was just coming here to post about Everett. I guess they're getting him to replace Guerrero

From the sublime to the ridiculous is but a step

http://bbfl.scottlucas.com
The Fox selection is bewildering. Texas signed him to a minor-league deal, and he actually had a good shot of making the 25-man roster as a last-guy-off-the-bench type and a sub for the 1-3 games per year that A-Rod and Young don't play.

It's an easy fifty grand for Texas, and Montreal has to keep him on the active roster all season for offer him back for $25k. And, there will be any number of Andy Foxes available come December 20th.

FWIW, Fox is no worse than Jose Vizcaino, who is receving the princely sum of $1.2 million to back up in Houston.

Hopefully Carl doesn't have to worry about his dinosaurs in Montreal.

"God created the sun, the stars, the heavens and the earth, and then made Adam and Eve," Everett said last Friday, before the Red Sox lost two of three in Atlanta. "The Bible never says anything about dinosaurs. You can't say there were dinosaurs when you never saw them. Someone actually saw Adam and Eve. No one ever saw a Tyrannosaurus rex."

What about dinosaur bones?

"Made by man," he says.

Everett has trouble, too, with the idea of man actually walking on the moon. After first rejecting the notion, he concedes, "Yeah, that could have happened. It's possible. That is something you could prove. You can't prove dinosaurs ever existed. I feel it's far-fetched."

"God created the sun, the stars, the heavens and the earth, and then made Adam and Eve," Everett said last Friday, before the Red Sox lost two of three in Atlanta. "The Bible never says anything about dinosaurs. You can't say there were dinosaurs when you never saw them. Someone actually saw Adam and Eve. No one ever saw a Tyrannosaurus rex."

What about dinosaur bones?

"Made by man," he says.

Everett has trouble, too, with the idea of man actually walking on the moon. After first rejecting the notion, he concedes, "Yeah, that could have happened. It's possible. That is something you could prove. You can't prove dinosaurs ever existed. I feel it's far-fetched."

Thanks, Thomas.
I was hoping someone would have the exact quote.
That interview appeared in SI if my memory serves me, correct?

The Bible never says anything about Carl Everett.

Maybe he doesn't exist.

Brilliant, Scott.

Actually if you read the whole thing Carl Everett is mentioned near the back. It's in Revelations. I don't remember the exact passage but it mentions something about a seventh seal, some guy with horns and a tail, Carl Everett signing with the Expos, and the Apocalypse.

Yes, Carl is one of the Four Horse's Asses of the Apocalypse.

If Guerrero didn't believe in dinosaurs or moon landings, I wouldn't give a flying.

But it's a bad signing for the 'Pos.

How the hell did Minaya get Johnson from Cashman?

Carl Everett is actually the fatted calf.

http://bbfl.scottlucas.com
Everett has an interesting belief system, and he's no Vlad, but he'll earn his paycheck. Removing his injury-plagued 2001 and 2002, his OPS+ has never been lower than 121 during the last four years. I wouldn't have been displeased at all if he'd signed on again with Texas.

While with the Rangers, Everett was well-respected and generally liked (or at least not disliked) in the clubhouse. He grumbled a bit about not playing centerfield, but it tapered off as time went by, especially as his knee finally healed and he began smacking the ball again. So far as I know, his experience in Chicago was similar.

Well, the Expos add another player to their ongoing tradition of head-cases: Pascal Perez, Ellis Valentine, Ron LeFlore, and that young crazy-horse Tim Foli.

Maybe to add to the compete visual, Everett can wear those heavily padded mittens that Perez used to wear when he batted.

Seriously, let's hope that it all works out for the Expos.

Yeah, I should clarify. Carl's a loon, but he's a good ballplayer - a superb fielder in a corner, passable in center - he'll probably compete with Terrmel Sledge, Juan Rivera and Val Pascucci for two jobs (center and right), with Wilkerson having left field nailed down. The loser of Sledge/Pascucci hits the bench as the primary pinch-hitting option, with Rivera as the fifth outfielder and trade bait.

Schneider wore down badly as last season progressed, hopefully just through exhaustion, wear or injury (he caught just 108 games though) rather than the league figuring him out. He's going to have to catch 110+ games this year as the primary catcher, so it better be the former, and hopefully he can learn from his experience as a starter.

So my Ideal Expos Dream Lineup now looks like this :

CF FREE TERRMEL SLEDGE
1B OBP Jesus
2B Vidro
RF Crazy Carl
LF Wilkerson
SS Cabrera
C Schneider (or the Warm Body of the Month)
3B Carroll

That's a lineup that should be much better than last year's, and may not be the second worst offense in the NL. In fact, they should be pretty good. Depending on what happens in Philly, with Florida looking to be slipping due to departures, I think the Expos can contend again if the Braves don't execute Run Away And Hide, Part XII.

I'm not sure which thread to write this is, but regardless, according to the Globe and Mail, the Jays are pursuing Shortstop Rich Aurilia. Any thoughts on his abilities as well as any idea how much you guys think he'd command?

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20031216/BASEBALLMEETINGS16/TPSports/TopStories
I'm not sure which thread to write this is, but regardless, according to the Globe and Mail, the Jays are pursuing Giants shortstop Rich Aurilia. How much do you guys think he'd command? Any thoughts?

(click on my name for link)
(and sorry about the last post)

Interesting potential move. Aurilia still has gas in the tank, and he's a marginal offensive and defensive improvement over Woody (I am assuming that the Glory Days of 2001 are gone), but if you sign him to a three-year deal, in two years' time you're looking at a 34-year-old SS who never was a defensive whiz and has slipped badly the last couple of years.

I don't like the signing unless they fit Aurilia within the $2.2 million that Blair says they have left, with a modest raise in year two. Realistically, though, all these elevated salaries leave me nonplussed. Where is Halladay's money for a longterm deal? Where is his money for a one-year settlement if that longterm deal doesn't work out?

Questions, questions...

Rich Aurilia is, at this point in his career, about the same quality ballplayer as Chris Woodward, offensively and defensively. Back-loading a contract for him, as is apparently being considered, makes no sense whatsoever, as it will impair the Jays ability to compete in 05 and 06 with little tangible gain in 04.

If Aurilia's willing to take a 1 or 2 year contract for about $2 million/yr (1/3 of his 2003 salary), then the acquisition would be fine. Woodward would probably be a pretty good defensive third baseman and you could spot him in for Hinske against some lefties and late in the game.

Craig, those are good questions. I have some thoughts about spending guidelines on a tight budget. The Jays have $50 million roughly to spend annually. Pitching is somewhere between 35 and 40 per cent of the game (preventing runs is 50 per cent of the game and pitching is the most significant part of preventing runs). Ergo, the budget for the pitching staff should be in the $17-$20 million range.

Starting pitchers pitch roughly 70 per cent of the team's innings. Relief pitchers pitch 30 per cent of the innings; some are the most significant (the 7th, 8th and 9th of close games) and some are the least significant (late innings of blowouts). I see no reason why the bullpen as a whole should eat up more than 30 per cent of the pitching staff budget, i.e. $5-$6 million. That leaves $12-$14 million for the starting staff, and $30-$33 million for the position players.

Of course, these guidelines are not written in stone. A team may have greater needs among either position players or pitching depending on what the farm produces, and may have to adjust the numbers modestly to reflect this. The team's budget may grow.

But, it is easy to see that affording Roy Halladay in the long-term is going to be very, very difficult unless the budget is increased significantly, or unless the 2006 starting rotation is Halladay, Batista, McGowan, Bush and Josh Banks,say, (with the latter three earning near minimum salaries). It could all work, but it doesn't leave much room for veteran pitching additions.

Mike G, an interesting analysis of budget construction. There are two things that constantly roll around in my mind that I think have something to say on this topic. I do not believe that talent and salary structures are linear. By that I mean you cannot take a performance metric and simply divide the salary into that metric and expect that a player that produces twice as much will only get twice the salary. Due to the scarcity of top players, I believe that they make more than twice as much (using the above example). This leads to the question are you better off with Barry Bonds and a bunch of average players or are you better off with 9 slightly above average players? And how do the two equate from a budgetary perspective?

The second point is that I believe pitching is more scarce than hitting (whether this is perception or reality I do not know) and that the budget for a run of run prevention through pitching is likely to be higher than the budget of a run of run scoring. In other words I think that it is easier to build (from a budgetary perspective) a team like the '03 Jays than it is to build a team like the '03 Dodgers.

Of course all of this theory gets thrown to hell with the realities of where each team's players are with respect to years of major league service because the one thing that is certain is that two players producing exactly the same amounts will cost a different amount depending upon years of service.

My gut tells me that spending around 50% of your budget on pitching, a good chunk of your offensive budget around one or two key players and fill in the rest is the way to go. Then again, this may be coloured by the recent successful models (at least in the regular season) of Oakland, San Fransico and to some extent Seattle who were built around this model.

THE EXPOS ARE EVIL!

(So says Eric Neel of ESPN.com, anyway.)

Nigel, I agree that there is not and should not be a linear relationship between an absolute performance measure and salary. Talent is distributed like the right side of a bell curve, and so such a relationship would undervalue the exceptional ballplayer. Now, if you are speaking about a stat like VORP which has the appropriate baseline of "replacement players, it may very well be that a linear relationship or close to it is appropriate.

As for spending 50% of the budget on pitching, I would not generally favor this approach. In the Blue Jay context that would mean $25 million for 14 position players. With that budget, all of your homegrown position talent has got to be gone before free agency. I don't see this as a winning formula.