Scheduled to start at 10:00 am EST this morning, the annual Rule 5 Draft might contain more risk than reward for the Blue Jays this year. With a stronger 40-man Jays roster in place and a relatively weak field expected to come available, there will probably be no Aquilino Lopezes or even Jason Duboises out there to be acquired. At the same time, the Jays have left a number of intriguing players unprotected for other teams to feast on. And when it's all over, Toronto will also pay the piper for their earlier deals: Minnesota (Bobby Kielty), Oakland (Ted Lilly) and Colorado (Justin Speier) will be selecting their Players To Be Named Later afterwards. The Jays' family will be a little smaller by later this afternoon; stay tuned to this thread to get all the details on who's arriving and who's leaving.
At this point, with the improvement to the bullpen, I'd rather have a Rule 5 pitcher over Pete Walker (look for Pete to be non-tendered, by the way). The performance would be about the same, with PW being a more expensive and aged option. It's too bad some roster space couldn't be cleared.
I thought there would be at least one free roster space available but that might have disappeared with the signing of Batista. It's too bad if there isn't, there were some interesting guys that may have been available and if JP really wanted, he might have even had a chance to get Thompson which may have been a good idea if he traded Werth or Johnson.
The advantage of keeping Walker is that he can start if Towers struggles or someone gets injured.
Pete Walker isn't arbitration-eligible yet is he? - what are his options if we were to offer him a take-it-or-leave-it $300,000 contract?
I thought Walker was going to be eligible for arbitration. I know Politte will be for sure so it is likely that he will be gone. It is amazing just how quickly JP soured on the guy when a year ago, scouts were saying that he was a steal from Philly for Plesac.
Walker earned $425,000 last year so isn' the minimum he can be offered about $350,000 ?
Walker has two years, 126 days of MLB service time. I'm not sure if that would make him a super-two, but if it doesn't then the Jays aren't required to pay him anything more than the league minimum, provided it isn't more than a 20% cut in his 2003 salary.
Walker may or may not be arbitration eligible. He has two full years of service time in 2002 and 2003, plus part years in 95, 96, 00 & 01.
Doesn't matter if he's arb eligible or not though. A non-tender essentially means, we're not going to give you a contract. It's standard practice to give all non-arbitration eligible players some sort of raise, unless their performance was horrid. Walker was paid $425K in 2003. Is he worth equal to or more than $425K to the 2004 Jays?
The Jays can't offer him a $300K take it or leave it contract. The least they can pay him is $340K but I don't think this regime wants to start cutting salaries, especially when Pete's 2003 performance was affected by injury. That's the kind of thing that gets the neck hair up on players and agents.
Doesn't matter if he's arb eligible or not though. A non-tender essentially means, we're not going to give you a contract. It's standard practice to give all non-arbitration eligible players some sort of raise, unless their performance was horrid. Walker was paid $425K in 2003. Is he worth equal to or more than $425K to the 2004 Jays?
The Jays can't offer him a $300K take it or leave it contract. The least they can pay him is $340K but I don't think this regime wants to start cutting salaries, especially when Pete's 2003 performance was affected by injury. That's the kind of thing that gets the neck hair up on players and agents.
Ryan, how did you get the info on the number of days of service?
The 2003 Blue Jays media guide. I took the service time listed and added a year.
172 days is considered a full year of service time.
172 days is considered a full year of service time.
http://economics.about.com
2002 WARP3
Doc 9.7
Walker 4.2
Batista 3.6
Ligten 2.5
Speier 1.9
Lilly 0.6
Towers -0.1
Hentgen -0.2
In the last season he was healthy, Pete Walker outperformed every current Jays pitcher except for Doc.
Somebody please explain to me how that isn't worth a 500K flyer.
Mike
2002 WARP3
Doc 9.7
Walker 4.2
Batista 3.6
Ligten 2.5
Speier 1.9
Lilly 0.6
Towers -0.1
Hentgen -0.2
In the last season he was healthy, Pete Walker outperformed every current Jays pitcher except for Doc.
Somebody please explain to me how that isn't worth a 500K flyer.
Mike
The players who qualify for Super Two status usually have 2 years plus between 120 and 140 days. So, Walker is on the bubble depending on the pool of players who have between 2 and 3 years of service time.
But again, you can non-tender anyone you don't already have a 2004 contract with whether they are arbitration eligible or not.
But again, you can non-tender anyone you don't already have a 2004 contract with whether they are arbitration eligible or not.
Somebody please explain to me how that isn't worth a 500K flyer.
It wouldn't be a bad decision to keep him. But given his age and likely contibution to the team in 2005 and beyond, what is a better investment of that $500K? Pete Walker or a 23 or 24 year old Rule 5 selection plus $250K to spare.
It wouldn't be a bad decision to keep him. But given his age and likely contibution to the team in 2005 and beyond, what is a better investment of that $500K? Pete Walker or a 23 or 24 year old Rule 5 selection plus $250K to spare.
Walker's numbers in 2002 were OK, but nothing special. In 140 innings, he walked 51, struck out 80 and gave up 18 homers. He'll be 35 in April.
Still, I don't see that the Jays have any realistic options for the "6th starter" role other than Walker. Chen needs some time in Syracuse to get it back (in the same way that Towers needed it last year).
Still, I don't see that the Jays have any realistic options for the "6th starter" role other than Walker. Chen needs some time in Syracuse to get it back (in the same way that Towers needed it last year).
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/031215rulevdraft.html
It's done. Jays get Talley Haines from Tampa and don't lose anyone. Click on my name.
It's done. Jays get Talley Haines from Tampa and don't lose anyone. Click on my name.
http://economics.about.com
But given his age and likely contibution to the team in 2005 and beyond, what is a better investment of that $500K? Pete Walker or a 23 or 24 year old Rule 5 selection plus $250K to spare.
Pete Walker. I mean, what is Hentgen going to provide the '05 Jays? He's signed for a heck of a lot more than 500K.
I imagine the Jays will have 12 pitchers, so there's still room for a Rule 5 guy, unless they're planning on keeping Chen with the big club out of spring training.
If they do let Walker go (which they might), it won't be because of his expected performance for next season.
Mike
But given his age and likely contibution to the team in 2005 and beyond, what is a better investment of that $500K? Pete Walker or a 23 or 24 year old Rule 5 selection plus $250K to spare.
Pete Walker. I mean, what is Hentgen going to provide the '05 Jays? He's signed for a heck of a lot more than 500K.
I imagine the Jays will have 12 pitchers, so there's still room for a Rule 5 guy, unless they're planning on keeping Chen with the big club out of spring training.
If they do let Walker go (which they might), it won't be because of his expected performance for next season.
Mike
Excellent quick work by the BBox Department of Sanitation crew.
I think Walker is worth a contract for two reasons... one, he has shown he can be effective over a full season. Two, he can jump back and forth between starting and relief, a very valuable skill which not all pitchers possess.
I think Walker is worth a contract for two reasons... one, he has shown he can be effective over a full season. Two, he can jump back and forth between starting and relief, a very valuable skill which not all pitchers possess.
The bio on Haines. Looks like a decent pick-up, although he is 27.
Rich Thompson went to San Diego and Colter Bean to Boston.
Rich Thompson went to San Diego and Colter Bean to Boston.
Who is Talley Haines?
The Pirates got absolutely abused. Five of the first six Rule 5 picks were Pirate farmhands... wow!
The Pirates got absolutely abused. Five of the first six Rule 5 picks were Pirate farmhands... wow!
http://economics.about.com
Yuck! Broken link. Always preview your HTML.
Here's the stats on Haines.
Mike
Yuck! Broken link. Always preview your HTML.
Here's the stats on Haines.
Mike
Haines spent last 2 years at Durham. He just turned 27.
2 Yr Numbers - 143 IP, 141 H, 35 BB, 126 K
2 Yr Numbers - 143 IP, 141 H, 35 BB, 126 K
Walker's numbers in 2002 were OK, but nothing special. In 140 innings...
Mike, you just highlighted the important number right there. Is a Rule 5 guy really likely to give the club 140 innings if necessary? Me thinks not.
Mike, you just highlighted the important number right there. Is a Rule 5 guy really likely to give the club 140 innings if necessary? Me thinks not.
Quick work, Ryan! I'm really surprised the Blue Jays lost no players in the Rule 5. Surprised, but pleased. Here's the numbers on the delightfully named Talley Haines.
BTW, former Jays prospect and all-around nice guy Rich Thompson was claimed by the Padres from the Pirates, and sabrmetric curiosity Colter Bean was grabbed from the Yankees by Boston, of all people.
BTW, former Jays prospect and all-around nice guy Rich Thompson was claimed by the Padres from the Pirates, and sabrmetric curiosity Colter Bean was grabbed from the Yankees by Boston, of all people.
The bio on Haines which is what I tried to post a minute ago.
I mean, what is Hentgen going to provide the '05 Jays? He's signed for a heck of a lot more than 500K.
Pat Hentgen should perform at a much higher level than Walker whereas Walker's performance will be no better than an intelligent Rule 5 selection, which is the only kind JP and crew would bother to pick. As solid a performance as Walker turned in unexpectedly in 2002, he's still a league average pitcher. Good for filler, not much else. The point about having a talent for shuffling back and forth between the rotation is valid though. If the keep Walker, it won't be because of his expected performance. It will be because of that flexibility.
Turns out I was wrong anyway. The Jays did have room for a pick. I have no clue how. Pittsburgh got pillaged. Colter Bean to Boston.
Pat Hentgen should perform at a much higher level than Walker whereas Walker's performance will be no better than an intelligent Rule 5 selection, which is the only kind JP and crew would bother to pick. As solid a performance as Walker turned in unexpectedly in 2002, he's still a league average pitcher. Good for filler, not much else. The point about having a talent for shuffling back and forth between the rotation is valid though. If the keep Walker, it won't be because of his expected performance. It will be because of that flexibility.
Turns out I was wrong anyway. The Jays did have room for a pick. I have no clue how. Pittsburgh got pillaged. Colter Bean to Boston.
Not to second-guess JP, but if this guy couldn't crack Tampa's bullpen...
Huh? The Devil Rays had one of the best bullpens in baseball.
Haines certainly isn't Aquilino Lopez, but that's no reason not to be interested. He's a minor-league veteran, and his career numbers have been sporadic at times. But he had himself a strong 2003, with more of the very good BB/K numbers he's carried throughout his career, and it's quite possible that one of the Jays' scouts saw something that indicated he's really turned a corner. He's certainly much closer to helping out in the major leagues than, say, Gary Majewski or even Corey Thurman were. To my mind, he'll come to spring training and audition for a job; if the Jays haven't picked up anyone else for the pen, via trade or non-tenders, then a strong spring could get him a roster spot in Toronto next year. Otherwise, he'll likely be returned to Durham.
I'm still really surprised that no Jays farmhands were selected.
I'm still really surprised that no Jays farmhands were selected.
Some more on Haines:
With 1997 Rochester Honkers hurler Talley Haines in the fold, the Bulls won their second consecutive International League title in 2003 and became the league’s first repeat champion since 1992.
Haines (6’5”, 203, bats R, throws R) just finished his second full year at Durham, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays’ Class AAA affiliate, with 98 relief appearances, a 9-10 record and 126 strikeouts against only 35 walks in 143-1/3 innings since 2002. This year, the 26-year-old Cape Girardeau, MO native went 5-3, held opponents to a .227 average, struck out almost a batter per inning, and knocked almost two full runs off his 2002 earned-run average (from 4.52 to 2.53). Haines’ ERA after May 1 was a paltry 2.16, and he ended the regular season with seven consecutive scoreless appearances covering 9-2/3 innings with no walks, seven hits and nine strikeouts.
Haines knew about winning championships before the Devil Rays selected him in the 25th round of the 1998 amateur draft. The former Freed-Hardeman University (Henderson, TN) hurler recorded the final out of Rochester’s 1997 Northwoods League Championship Series victory over the Waterloo Bucks. During that regular season Haines, who began his collegiate career at hometown Southeast Missouri State University, split his time between the bullpen and rotation and built a 5-2 record with a 3.09 ERA. Haines became a reliever for good upon entering the Devil Rays’ organization, and a bullpen workhorse at that; he has averaged 64 appearances and over 90 innings since reaching the Class A level in 1999.
With 1997 Rochester Honkers hurler Talley Haines in the fold, the Bulls won their second consecutive International League title in 2003 and became the league’s first repeat champion since 1992.
Haines (6’5”, 203, bats R, throws R) just finished his second full year at Durham, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays’ Class AAA affiliate, with 98 relief appearances, a 9-10 record and 126 strikeouts against only 35 walks in 143-1/3 innings since 2002. This year, the 26-year-old Cape Girardeau, MO native went 5-3, held opponents to a .227 average, struck out almost a batter per inning, and knocked almost two full runs off his 2002 earned-run average (from 4.52 to 2.53). Haines’ ERA after May 1 was a paltry 2.16, and he ended the regular season with seven consecutive scoreless appearances covering 9-2/3 innings with no walks, seven hits and nine strikeouts.
Haines knew about winning championships before the Devil Rays selected him in the 25th round of the 1998 amateur draft. The former Freed-Hardeman University (Henderson, TN) hurler recorded the final out of Rochester’s 1997 Northwoods League Championship Series victory over the Waterloo Bucks. During that regular season Haines, who began his collegiate career at hometown Southeast Missouri State University, split his time between the bullpen and rotation and built a 5-2 record with a 3.09 ERA. Haines became a reliever for good upon entering the Devil Rays’ organization, and a bullpen workhorse at that; he has averaged 64 appearances and over 90 innings since reaching the Class A level in 1999.
Since Talley Haines was picked , room will have to be made on the 40 man roster for him. Somebody will have to released or non-tendered now.
http://economics.about.com
He's still a league average pitcher
Agreed. But that isn't worth 500K to you? Tough crowd.
Pat Hentgen should perform at a much higher level than Walker whereas Walker's
I don't see it. Walker has been putting up 100 ERA+ over the last few years. I can't see Hentgen putting up more than a 120 ERA+ this year. Plus he makes a lot more.
Walker's performance will be no better than an intelligent Rule 5 selection, which is the only kind JP and crew would bother to pick.
Only if Walker is hurt or tanks. When is the last time a Rule 5 pitcher has put up over 100 innings of 100 ERA+ baseball? A-Lo's 2003 was great, but Walker's 2002 was much better, due wholly to the sheer number of innings pitched.
Mike
He's still a league average pitcher
Agreed. But that isn't worth 500K to you? Tough crowd.
Pat Hentgen should perform at a much higher level than Walker whereas Walker's
I don't see it. Walker has been putting up 100 ERA+ over the last few years. I can't see Hentgen putting up more than a 120 ERA+ this year. Plus he makes a lot more.
Walker's performance will be no better than an intelligent Rule 5 selection, which is the only kind JP and crew would bother to pick.
Only if Walker is hurt or tanks. When is the last time a Rule 5 pitcher has put up over 100 innings of 100 ERA+ baseball? A-Lo's 2003 was great, but Walker's 2002 was much better, due wholly to the sheer number of innings pitched.
Mike
Not to second-guess JP, but if this guy couldn't crack Tampa's bullpen...
Tampa isn't exactly well known for intelligent player personnel decisions. Case in point: they just traded for Geoff Blum.
Tampa isn't exactly well known for intelligent player personnel decisions. Case in point: they just traded for Geoff Blum.
Agreed. But that isn't worth 500K to you? Tough crowd.
It is most certainly worth $500K to me. Back to my point about this being an investment, who's the better investment? The 34 year old league average pitcher who is arbitration eligible in 2005 at the latest or the 24 year old league average pitcher you'll have at LESS than $500K for 3 years.
I don't see it. Walker has been putting up 100 ERA+ over the last few years.
Mike, you might want to think about employing a fact checker.
It is most certainly worth $500K to me. Back to my point about this being an investment, who's the better investment? The 34 year old league average pitcher who is arbitration eligible in 2005 at the latest or the 24 year old league average pitcher you'll have at LESS than $500K for 3 years.
I don't see it. Walker has been putting up 100 ERA+ over the last few years.
Mike, you might want to think about employing a fact checker.
True enough. They were dumb enough to sing on Junior Cruz for far too much. Maybe we can somehow convince them to take Woodward off our hands. I'd be happy with a rosin bag and a tin of Copenhagen in return.
Talley (Ho) Haines is a fine Rule Five pick. And to not lose anyone is an unexpected bonus.
So, the pitching staff now looks like this:
Halladay, Batista, Lilly, Hentgen and Towers
Lopez, Speier, Ligtenberg, Kershner, Haines
This leaves one or two spots for Walker, Trever Miller, Politte and Chulk. Walker is the most likely candidate for the one and possibly the only spot.
So, the pitching staff now looks like this:
Halladay, Batista, Lilly, Hentgen and Towers
Lopez, Speier, Ligtenberg, Kershner, Haines
This leaves one or two spots for Walker, Trever Miller, Politte and Chulk. Walker is the most likely candidate for the one and possibly the only spot.
Somebody will have to released or non-tendered now.
So long, Cliffy.
So long, Cliffy.
http://economics.about.com
It is most certainly worth $500K to me. Back to my point about this being an investment, who's the better investment? The 34 year old league average pitcher who is arbitration eligible in 2005 at the latest or the 24 year old league average pitcher you'll have at LESS than $500K for 3 years.
Sure, the Rule V guy is a better investment. But my point is that Walker is a better investment than Hentgen. So at least the order goes:
Rule V -> Walker -> Hentgen
So why Walker should be the odd man out doesn't make any sense. Walker vs. Rule V is a false dichotomy, and there's absolutely no reason the Jays should have to choose between the two of them.
I mean, a Rule V would probably be a better investment than about 6 or 7 guys on the team. Why pick on Walker?
Mike, you might want to think about employing a fact checker.
Fine, I'll be more pedantic. Walker has put up atleast a 98 ERA+ over the last two years.
I have a feeling Walker might end up being discarded, though. Wilner indicated that Politte pissed off the front office by hiding an injury. I wouldn't be surprised if Walker did the same thing and will similarly be tossed. Just a guess, though.
Mike
It is most certainly worth $500K to me. Back to my point about this being an investment, who's the better investment? The 34 year old league average pitcher who is arbitration eligible in 2005 at the latest or the 24 year old league average pitcher you'll have at LESS than $500K for 3 years.
Sure, the Rule V guy is a better investment. But my point is that Walker is a better investment than Hentgen. So at least the order goes:
Rule V -> Walker -> Hentgen
So why Walker should be the odd man out doesn't make any sense. Walker vs. Rule V is a false dichotomy, and there's absolutely no reason the Jays should have to choose between the two of them.
I mean, a Rule V would probably be a better investment than about 6 or 7 guys on the team. Why pick on Walker?
Mike, you might want to think about employing a fact checker.
Fine, I'll be more pedantic. Walker has put up atleast a 98 ERA+ over the last two years.
I have a feeling Walker might end up being discarded, though. Wilner indicated that Politte pissed off the front office by hiding an injury. I wouldn't be surprised if Walker did the same thing and will similarly be tossed. Just a guess, though.
Mike
http://economics.about.com
Oops.. Baseball Primer has Walker's 2003 at 97 not 98. Shows you why you shouldn't go from memory. :)
Mike
Oops.. Baseball Primer has Walker's 2003 at 97 not 98. Shows you why you shouldn't go from memory. :)
Mike
I think you're a little quick to hand this Haines kid a bullpen spot, Mike. He'll have to earn his job in spring training, and he'll probably need a 12 man staff to have a shot. Trever Miller makes the big club unless they pick up another LHP.
Walker is the most likely candidate for the one and possibly the only spot.
What about Miller ? A second lefty in the bullpen would be appreciated by Tosca I'm sure, and as has been pointed out there is not much need for a fifth starter in the early stages so Towers will probably see some bullpen time in between starts. Walker can get in some work in AAA and be avilable to come into the rotation in the event of injury.
What about Miller ? A second lefty in the bullpen would be appreciated by Tosca I'm sure, and as has been pointed out there is not much need for a fifth starter in the early stages so Towers will probably see some bullpen time in between starts. Walker can get in some work in AAA and be avilable to come into the rotation in the event of injury.
I wouldn't be surprised if Walker did the same thing and will similarly be tossed.
Walker (and Lidle) did exactly the same thing as Politte. Pete made a couple of starts in late April and one horrible relief appearance May 1 before admitting he was hurt. However, Eric Hinske pulled the same macho act, like the famous Monty Python knight, and though I'm sure it annoyed a few people, he isn't going to be discarded.
Haines has a steep uphill battle to make the club, guys. He can be returned, or perhaps Tampa will take a younger farmhand in trade. Right now I have Walker and Miller pencilled in -- there's no way Carlos Tosca goes into battle with one bullpen lefty -- with the possibility of an upgrade (what's Rincon worth?) in either spot. There could also be another amazing spring training development; perhaps the next Reed Johnson will be a reliever.
Walker (and Lidle) did exactly the same thing as Politte. Pete made a couple of starts in late April and one horrible relief appearance May 1 before admitting he was hurt. However, Eric Hinske pulled the same macho act, like the famous Monty Python knight, and though I'm sure it annoyed a few people, he isn't going to be discarded.
Haines has a steep uphill battle to make the club, guys. He can be returned, or perhaps Tampa will take a younger farmhand in trade. Right now I have Walker and Miller pencilled in -- there's no way Carlos Tosca goes into battle with one bullpen lefty -- with the possibility of an upgrade (what's Rincon worth?) in either spot. There could also be another amazing spring training development; perhaps the next Reed Johnson will be a reliever.
ERA+ is a deceptive stat for a reliever. Walker had a very poor 03 notwithstanding the close to league average ERA+.
Three-year lines for Politte and Walker:
IP H R ER HR W K
Cliff: 149 133 73 68 18 53 135
Pete: 203 210 106 100 29 75 113
Politte is obviously a significantly better pitcher, notwithstanding his terrible 1st half of 03 as a result of injury. Walker's only advantage is that he has recently started in the majors; Politte was a successful starter in the minors, but hasn't started in the majors in 5 years. It is for this reason that I expect Walker to be kept and Politte non-tendered.
Three-year lines for Politte and Walker:
IP H R ER HR W K
Cliff: 149 133 73 68 18 53 135
Pete: 203 210 106 100 29 75 113
Politte is obviously a significantly better pitcher, notwithstanding his terrible 1st half of 03 as a result of injury. Walker's only advantage is that he has recently started in the majors; Politte was a successful starter in the minors, but hasn't started in the majors in 5 years. It is for this reason that I expect Walker to be kept and Politte non-tendered.
I gotta say, 2 yrs at 6 million total is a pretty fair price for Cruz. I don't see how the Rays got rooked here; Cruz is probably average or a smidgen above both offensively and defensively, and for Tampa, that's worth 3 million a year easily.
But my point is that Walker is a better investment than Hentgen.
Dollar for dollar? Maybe. But the Jays are paying Hentgen a slight premium for the likelihood of above average performance in 2004.
Walker vs. Rule V is a false dichotomy, and there's absolutely no reason the Jays should have to choose between the two of them.
Who else on the Jays' staff, besides Walker, can now be considered to be league average? Towers. Miller. Towers has upside. Miller is left-handed. It's not a false dichotomy to me. It's nearly a conclusion that Politte is gone. After him, there is no one left to tap on the shoulder in order to create a spot for a Rule 5 pick. Lopez, Speier, Ligtenberg, Kershner, Miller and Haines. That's your bullpen. Your spot starters sit in AAA.
Dollar for dollar? Maybe. But the Jays are paying Hentgen a slight premium for the likelihood of above average performance in 2004.
Walker vs. Rule V is a false dichotomy, and there's absolutely no reason the Jays should have to choose between the two of them.
Who else on the Jays' staff, besides Walker, can now be considered to be league average? Towers. Miller. Towers has upside. Miller is left-handed. It's not a false dichotomy to me. It's nearly a conclusion that Politte is gone. After him, there is no one left to tap on the shoulder in order to create a spot for a Rule 5 pick. Lopez, Speier, Ligtenberg, Kershner, Miller and Haines. That's your bullpen. Your spot starters sit in AAA.
Maybe JP can just trade Haines back to TB as the PTBNL...
I agree that Haines is probably a long shot. Without Walker and Miller, the bullpen is poorly constructed: the only other guy who can go several innings in one outing is Kershner, and he's also the only lefty.
Right now, I'd assume that the rotation is Doc/Batista/Hentgen/Lilly/Towers or Chen, and the bullpen is Lopez, Ligtenberg, Speier, Miller, Walker, and Kershner. Politte is almost certainly history as of now, and Chulk is probably about to become one of the players to be named later.
Right now, I'd assume that the rotation is Doc/Batista/Hentgen/Lilly/Towers or Chen, and the bullpen is Lopez, Ligtenberg, Speier, Miller, Walker, and Kershner. Politte is almost certainly history as of now, and Chulk is probably about to become one of the players to be named later.
Isn't it likely we'll see a 12 man staff...we always have under the J.P. regime
Haines looks like an almost exact statistical duplicate of Aquilino Lopez when Lopez was scooped last year.
Lopez in 2002: 2.39 ERA, 4-4 W-L record, 103 K's in 109.3 IP, age 27
Haines in 2003: 2.53 ERA, 5-3 W-L record, 64 K's in 67.2 IP, age 27
The similarities are striking. Lopez pitched a lot more innings, but the results per inning were the same. I think Haines has a good shot at a bullpen spot.
Lopez in 2002: 2.39 ERA, 4-4 W-L record, 103 K's in 109.3 IP, age 27
Haines in 2003: 2.53 ERA, 5-3 W-L record, 64 K's in 67.2 IP, age 27
The similarities are striking. Lopez pitched a lot more innings, but the results per inning were the same. I think Haines has a good shot at a bullpen spot.
Trever Miller was an underwhelming LOOGY; left-handed hitters went .226/.325/.425 against him. Plus, he's arb-eligible, I understand.
But, Coach and Gwyn are right. There is this almost mystical need to have a second lefty in the pen, and so Talley Ho might be riding off into the sunset in March. It's hard to believe it but Felipe Alou went through a season in the early 90s with the Expos without any lefties in the pen and was very successful.
Who knows, maybe JP sat down this fall with Carlos Tosca and had a chat about serial relief changes?
But, Coach and Gwyn are right. There is this almost mystical need to have a second lefty in the pen, and so Talley Ho might be riding off into the sunset in March. It's hard to believe it but Felipe Alou went through a season in the early 90s with the Expos without any lefties in the pen and was very successful.
Who knows, maybe JP sat down this fall with Carlos Tosca and had a chat about serial relief changes?
Alec Zumwalt from the Braves to the Devil Rays is kind of an intriguing pick. Apparently he was converted to pitcher in 2002 after being drafter in the 4th round in 1999 as an outfielder. He showed an impressive improvement in his second season as a pitcher, albeit not at a high level. I can see why the Braves thought he might get through, and I can see why Tampa decided he shouldn't.
http://www.sports-wired.com/players/profile.asp?Name=CCFCA&N=P
http://www.sports-wired.com/players/profile.asp?Name=CCFCA&N=P
Bob Elliott just doesn't get it:
Now, the Jays have three candidates to close games: Speier, Aquilino Lopez and Kerry Ligtenberg. None are power pitchers and as Jays manager Carlos Tosca said later, "Given my druthers, I'd rather have one go-to guy.
Exactly how many erratic closers with great stuff do the Jays have to go through before it occurs to Bob that stuff isn't the only prerequisite to finish games? Koch, Kelvim, and Cliff all have better stuff than any of the 3 2004 candidates, but would the Jays really be better off with any of the "stuff" guys? There are only so many Billy Wagners kicking around. Guardado, Hasegawa, Hoffman, and Foulke are hardly overpowering, but I'd take any one of them.
Now, the Jays have three candidates to close games: Speier, Aquilino Lopez and Kerry Ligtenberg. None are power pitchers and as Jays manager Carlos Tosca said later, "Given my druthers, I'd rather have one go-to guy.
Exactly how many erratic closers with great stuff do the Jays have to go through before it occurs to Bob that stuff isn't the only prerequisite to finish games? Koch, Kelvim, and Cliff all have better stuff than any of the 3 2004 candidates, but would the Jays really be better off with any of the "stuff" guys? There are only so many Billy Wagners kicking around. Guardado, Hasegawa, Hoffman, and Foulke are hardly overpowering, but I'd take any one of them.
Since this is where the action is today , I will repost this from the update thread from a little while ago.
Mike Wilner was on the Fan for about 10 mins just now , he said J.P. is working the crowd and other G.M'S like crazy this morning. Wilner says J.P was talking with G.M Williams of the White Sox for a while this morning after the rule 5 draft.
Wilner said that the Commish has given the Red Sox and Texas a deadline of today to get the deal done. Red Sox can not have talks with AROD and Boras after today.
Mike Wilner was on the Fan for about 10 mins just now , he said J.P. is working the crowd and other G.M'S like crazy this morning. Wilner says J.P was talking with G.M Williams of the White Sox for a while this morning after the rule 5 draft.
Wilner said that the Commish has given the Red Sox and Texas a deadline of today to get the deal done. Red Sox can not have talks with AROD and Boras after today.
Of course Nerio Rodriguez never amounted to anything.
Wilner says J.P was talking with G.M Williams of the White Sox for a while this morning after the rule 5 draft.
Better get the New Orleans Robbery Squad on the scene right away.
Better get the New Orleans Robbery Squad on the scene right away.
"Better get the New Orleans Robbery Squad on the scene right away". And the Fraud Squad, while they're at it. Hey Jordan, here's your opportunity to use "Whistling Dixie" again.
Thw White Sox have two fine lefty relievers in Marte and Wunsch; either one would make Miller expendable. I'm too busy to look up their contract status, but they're nice to think about.
I agree with Dan Gordon. And while Talley has a nice K ratio, he also keeps the ball in the park and walks very few. A 6:1 K:BB ratio is excellent.
I'd be surprised if he doesn't make the team.
What I like about the Jays Rule 5 (not V!) picks the last 2 years is that they are going after players that can contribute right now, instead of trying to hide someone for a year and then send him to the minors next year and hope he works out after that.
When you take a 27 year old you should have a pretty good idea of what you're going to get.
I'd be surprised if he doesn't make the team.
What I like about the Jays Rule 5 (not V!) picks the last 2 years is that they are going after players that can contribute right now, instead of trying to hide someone for a year and then send him to the minors next year and hope he works out after that.
When you take a 27 year old you should have a pretty good idea of what you're going to get.
Isn't it likely we'll see a 12 man staff...we always have under the J.P. regime
I think the difference is now that there are now some starting pitchers on the team to back up Halladay, lessening the need for the extra bullpen arm. It's always possible they will go with 12 but it's probably not as necessary as it was in the past.
I think the difference is now that there are now some starting pitchers on the team to back up Halladay, lessening the need for the extra bullpen arm. It's always possible they will go with 12 but it's probably not as necessary as it was in the past.
http://economics.about.com
Lopez, Speier, Ligtenberg, Kershner, Miller and Haines. That's your bullpen. Your spot starters sit in AAA.
You're going to have no long relievers on a staff with three question marks at the back end of the rotation?
Either Chen or Walker or someone else who can provide 5 or 6 decent innings in a game will be in the bullpen. You have to have a guy like that.
Mike
Lopez, Speier, Ligtenberg, Kershner, Miller and Haines. That's your bullpen. Your spot starters sit in AAA.
You're going to have no long relievers on a staff with three question marks at the back end of the rotation?
Either Chen or Walker or someone else who can provide 5 or 6 decent innings in a game will be in the bullpen. You have to have a guy like that.
Mike
C'mon Pistol - look how well Gordie Ash did with the DeWayne Wise pickup.
A quick search at Baseball Prospectus informs me that Mr. Haines will be the first 'Haines to play in MLB since Jesse Haines, a decent pitcher for the Cardinals in the 20s and 30s.
And Mike's right - your spot starter, like your backup SS, is in AAA.
And Mike's right - your spot starter, like your backup SS, is in AAA.
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/articles/?id=1545
Click on my name for the minor league results.
The Jays didn't take anyone in the minor league phase, although they lost several inconsequential guys. Mark Camolli, Ryan Costello, Eric Stephenson, Kurt Keene and Peter Bauer were all selected by other clubs.
Click on my name for the minor league results.
The Jays didn't take anyone in the minor league phase, although they lost several inconsequential guys. Mark Camolli, Ryan Costello, Eric Stephenson, Kurt Keene and Peter Bauer were all selected by other clubs.
The Jays didn;t get off quite so easily in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 Draft (scroll down to see the results) -- five farmhands are gone, all from New Haven/Manchester, though none of them are particularly worth worrying about:
Mark Comolli, RHP, New Haven -- Tampa Bay (2nd overall)
Ryan Costello, LHP, New Haven -- Milwaukee (5th)
Eric Stephenson, LHP, New Haven -- Chicago White Sox (13th)
Kurt Keene, IF, New Haven -- Philadelphia (17th)
Pete Bauer, RHP, New Haven -- Florida (48th)
Stephenson held some interest, but with the wave of young pitching coming up from Dunedin and Auburn, most of these guys would have been released anyway. Perhaps surprisingly, the Jays chose nobody in the minor-league phase -- perhaps a testament to the strength of their own farm system.
Mark Comolli, RHP, New Haven -- Tampa Bay (2nd overall)
Ryan Costello, LHP, New Haven -- Milwaukee (5th)
Eric Stephenson, LHP, New Haven -- Chicago White Sox (13th)
Kurt Keene, IF, New Haven -- Philadelphia (17th)
Pete Bauer, RHP, New Haven -- Florida (48th)
Stephenson held some interest, but with the wave of young pitching coming up from Dunedin and Auburn, most of these guys would have been released anyway. Perhaps surprisingly, the Jays chose nobody in the minor-league phase -- perhaps a testament to the strength of their own farm system.
Geez, Ryan -- you're gonna put me out of a job. :-)
I'm snowed in today and have nothing else to do. :-)
The Expos selected OF Ender Chavez for organizational depth in case OF Endy Chavez gets injured?
Jesse Haines, a decent pitcher for the Cardinals in the 20s and 30s
Jesse Haines is in the Hall of Fame.
Jesse Haines is in the Hall of Fame.
Either Chen or Walker or someone else who can provide 5 or 6 decent innings in a game will be in the bullpen. You have to have a guy like that.
It would be preferred. It's Pete Walker who is the 25th guy on the team in my mind even though his role is of value. So, at least go with Chen or anybody who has more upside than Pete Walker and saves a couple hundred thousand as well.
It would be preferred. It's Pete Walker who is the 25th guy on the team in my mind even though his role is of value. So, at least go with Chen or anybody who has more upside than Pete Walker and saves a couple hundred thousand as well.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/dishaug03.html
Interestingly Eric Stephenson retired from pro ball earlier this season. (COMN for details) Perhaps he's changed his mind? Or are the White Sox just not paying attention?
Interestingly Eric Stephenson retired from pro ball earlier this season. (COMN for details) Perhaps he's changed his mind? Or are the White Sox just not paying attention?
I've changed my mind on Trever Miller. I previously argued that he wasn't really a LOOGY and that I would consider non-tendering him if his price was anything over $500K. I think I was off base by looking at just his 2003 splits. Over his career he definitely has a traditional platoon advantage, and his 2003 numbers are abnormal in that he gave up 6 of his 7 homers to lefties. His career homer spit is 12L:11R, or 6L:10R if you drop the 2003 numbers (73 IP vs LH, 115 vs RH). So I think he's worth keeping as the LOOGY.
As for Politte, it's interesting to look at his season in three parts, call them pre-injury, pitching hurt, and comeback. I picked May 17 as the day he was injured, as he gave up a run in each of his next 3 outings. An argument could be made that it was a little later than that, but you'll get a similar picture.
That 4.74 ERA is less than impressive, but considering his sporadic usage when he came back and the fact that 3 of those earned runs came in a single outing where he didn't retire anybody, I'm pretty confident in saying he recovered well.
I doubt a better million dollar pitcher will become available in the non-tenders. The question to me is whether you'd rather spend $1M on Politte or $500K on Walker. By my guesstimate, the budget isn't a problem in this choice.
I'll take Cliff. The 6th and 7th starters can be NRIs that get sent to Syracuse until needed. Call me crazy, but I go with a seven man staff, keeping Haines.
As for Politte, it's interesting to look at his season in three parts, call them pre-injury, pitching hurt, and comeback. I picked May 17 as the day he was injured, as he gave up a run in each of his next 3 outings. An argument could be made that it was a little later than that, but you'll get a similar picture.
IP H R HR BB K ERA
Apr 1 May 17 18.7 17 6 3 6 17 2.89
May 18 Jun 28 15.0 25 18 8 5 11 10.80
Jul 25 Sep 26 13.3 10 8 0 6 12 4.74
That 4.74 ERA is less than impressive, but considering his sporadic usage when he came back and the fact that 3 of those earned runs came in a single outing where he didn't retire anybody, I'm pretty confident in saying he recovered well.
I doubt a better million dollar pitcher will become available in the non-tenders. The question to me is whether you'd rather spend $1M on Politte or $500K on Walker. By my guesstimate, the budget isn't a problem in this choice.
I'll take Cliff. The 6th and 7th starters can be NRIs that get sent to Syracuse until needed. Call me crazy, but I go with a seven man staff, keeping Haines.
According to the Fan , Sandy Nin was sent to Colorado to finish out the trade. Ouch , I liked this guy.
http://economics.about.com
It would be preferred. It's Pete Walker who is the 25th guy on the team in my mind even though his role is of value. So, at least go with Chen or anybody who has more upside than Pete Walker and saves a couple hundred thousand as well.
I imagine Chen's salary is probably closer to 500K than 300K if he makes the club, so I can't see him saving any money.
In a world without injuries, you wouldn't need both Walker and Chen. Since we don't live in that world, there is value to having both.
I agree with your statement "Your spot starters sit in AAA." That's where I see Chen. He can get his stuff together with regular starts in AAA, while Walker is used to long relieve, short relive, and pick up JP's dry cleaning.
If Walker is a Jay in 2004, I don't think both him and Chen will stay in the organization the whole year. Given what's happened in the past, I imagine Chen is more likely to leave than Walker.
Mike
It would be preferred. It's Pete Walker who is the 25th guy on the team in my mind even though his role is of value. So, at least go with Chen or anybody who has more upside than Pete Walker and saves a couple hundred thousand as well.
I imagine Chen's salary is probably closer to 500K than 300K if he makes the club, so I can't see him saving any money.
In a world without injuries, you wouldn't need both Walker and Chen. Since we don't live in that world, there is value to having both.
I agree with your statement "Your spot starters sit in AAA." That's where I see Chen. He can get his stuff together with regular starts in AAA, while Walker is used to long relieve, short relive, and pick up JP's dry cleaning.
If Walker is a Jay in 2004, I don't think both him and Chen will stay in the organization the whole year. Given what's happened in the past, I imagine Chen is more likely to leave than Walker.
Mike
Dave Gassner lives to see another day. Well....unless he's a PTBNL.
The Nin announcement stings a bit but thanks to a now deep system, there's more where that came from.
Hopefully the Fan is off base on that one, Jeff. I like Nin alot - they were off on the Reed Johnson thing and aired erroneous details about Batista's $$, too.
After the draft, Rich Thompson was traded to KC by San Diego. With Beltran perhaps on the way out, it's possible that Rich will have a job next year.
IMHO Nin was not in the top level, nor the second level, of Jays pitching prospects. It is a long way from Charleston to Toronto and he was a long shot. When I projected the Jays minor league starting pitchers a few weeks ago I put him in the pen.
The Jays have a logjam in minor league SP's, so Nin's departure frees up a spot for Harper, Rosario, Thorpe or some of the 2003 draftees.
The Jays have a logjam in minor league SP's, so Nin's departure frees up a spot for Harper, Rosario, Thorpe or some of the 2003 draftees.
http://economics.about.com
According to the Fan , Sandy Nin was sent to Colorado to finish out the trade. Ouch , I liked this guy.
ESPN confirms the deal.
I still like the Hendrickson deal, but it's slightly less of a steal it was before. As Gerry points out, there's a logjam of pitchers in hte mid-level minors, so it's not much of a loss.
Mike
According to the Fan , Sandy Nin was sent to Colorado to finish out the trade. Ouch , I liked this guy.
ESPN confirms the deal.
I still like the Hendrickson deal, but it's slightly less of a steal it was before. As Gerry points out, there's a logjam of pitchers in hte mid-level minors, so it's not much of a loss.
Mike
This one from the Encroaching Senility file...
The Mariners signed Scott Spiezio to a 3-year, $9 million deal. They also traded Greg Colbrunn AND CASH for Quinton McCracken.
The Mariners signed Scott Spiezio to a 3-year, $9 million deal. They also traded Greg Colbrunn AND CASH for Quinton McCracken.
Pat Gillick seems to be the touch of Death for franchises:
Leaves the Blue Jays, replaced by Gord Ash, who fills the team with aging & expensive mediocrities;
Leaves the Orioles, replaced by Syd Thrift, who fills the team with aging and really expensive mediocrities;
Leaves the Mariners, replaced by Bavasi, who simply loses his mind.
The Rangers shouldn't have to spend too much more time in the cellar.
Leaves the Blue Jays, replaced by Gord Ash, who fills the team with aging & expensive mediocrities;
Leaves the Orioles, replaced by Syd Thrift, who fills the team with aging and really expensive mediocrities;
Leaves the Mariners, replaced by Bavasi, who simply loses his mind.
The Rangers shouldn't have to spend too much more time in the cellar.
I would like to have seen the staff meeting in which Bavasi explained his off season signing policy:
"Well you see, we are going to target the most mediocre free agents out there and try and corner the market on them. That way Oakland and Anaheim won't be able to get their hands on them. It's genius."
Is it possible that Bavasi thought that he was signing Spezio when he signed Ibanez? I mean, they are the same person right? Is there anything different that they offer?
"Well you see, we are going to target the most mediocre free agents out there and try and corner the market on them. That way Oakland and Anaheim won't be able to get their hands on them. It's genius."
Is it possible that Bavasi thought that he was signing Spezio when he signed Ibanez? I mean, they are the same person right? Is there anything different that they offer?
AE: Jesse Haines, a decent pitcher for the Cardinals in the 20s and 30s
CB: Jesse Haines is in the Hall of Fame.
The two aren't mutually exclusive. Haines pitched 3208.2 innings in the major leagues with a 108 ERA+, and that figure wasn't brought down by a late-career decline. BP rates him as 94 PRAA and 688 PRAR for his career. None of his 10 most comparable pitchers (using BR's methodology, which admittedly has some problems) is in the Hall of Fame.
Calling Haines a "decent pitcher" is admittedly quite unfair (which is probably all that Craig meant to imply), but the guy shouldn't have been allowed within a country mile of Cooperstown. He's probably one of the most egregious mistakes in the Hall's history.
On another note, you can add me to the list of people who thinks that releasing Cliff Politte is a horrible idea (unless he has continuing arm problems of which we are ignorant.) Politte is a guy who could strike out about a man per inning without giving up many walks or home runs when he was healthy, and pitchers like that don't grow on trees. His upside is far higher than that of Miller, Kershner, Walker, or Haines.
CB: Jesse Haines is in the Hall of Fame.
The two aren't mutually exclusive. Haines pitched 3208.2 innings in the major leagues with a 108 ERA+, and that figure wasn't brought down by a late-career decline. BP rates him as 94 PRAA and 688 PRAR for his career. None of his 10 most comparable pitchers (using BR's methodology, which admittedly has some problems) is in the Hall of Fame.
Calling Haines a "decent pitcher" is admittedly quite unfair (which is probably all that Craig meant to imply), but the guy shouldn't have been allowed within a country mile of Cooperstown. He's probably one of the most egregious mistakes in the Hall's history.
On another note, you can add me to the list of people who thinks that releasing Cliff Politte is a horrible idea (unless he has continuing arm problems of which we are ignorant.) Politte is a guy who could strike out about a man per inning without giving up many walks or home runs when he was healthy, and pitchers like that don't grow on trees. His upside is far higher than that of Miller, Kershner, Walker, or Haines.
Every time I play Baseball Mogul, Spezio becomes an all star 2B within a few years. Maybe Bavasi was playing Mogul too.
As for the Jays, I see them starting the season with 12 pitchers. They did this last year, I believe, in order to baby Lopez for a while; getting him into the game in non-crucial situations until he was ready to be handed more important situations. I vividly remember early in the year (after numerous Tam/Creek debacles) when Bauxites were demanding that Lopez be given a bigger role as he was the only bullpen arm getting anyone out. If Tailor Haines shows potential in spring training I can't see why he wouldn't be treated the same way.
Looking over the Rule 5 selections, wasn't Jason Grilli (selected by the ChiSox) a can't miss prospect a while back?
As for the Jays, I see them starting the season with 12 pitchers. They did this last year, I believe, in order to baby Lopez for a while; getting him into the game in non-crucial situations until he was ready to be handed more important situations. I vividly remember early in the year (after numerous Tam/Creek debacles) when Bauxites were demanding that Lopez be given a bigger role as he was the only bullpen arm getting anyone out. If Tailor Haines shows potential in spring training I can't see why he wouldn't be treated the same way.
Looking over the Rule 5 selections, wasn't Jason Grilli (selected by the ChiSox) a can't miss prospect a while back?
Spiezio can "play" third is as much as he is experienced at the position. He really has no business manning the position thanks to his poor D, even if the other option is Jeff Cirillo. On top of all that, Colbrunn is clearly the better hitter.
Finally, this is someone Kenny Williams can look to and feel good about himself. I usually reserve judgement on GMs until after a season or two but Bavasi has made a few moves now and none of them seem very good.
Finally, this is someone Kenny Williams can look to and feel good about himself. I usually reserve judgement on GMs until after a season or two but Bavasi has made a few moves now and none of them seem very good.
I hear David Gassner is the PTBNL in the Stew-Kielty deal.
According to the Fan , Sandy Nin was sent to Colorado to finish out the trade
I blame Jordan's optimistic farm report for Nin getting traded. Same with Gassner if that's true.
I blame Jordan's optimistic farm report for Nin getting traded. Same with Gassner if that's true.
Thomas, where did you "hear" that it was Gassner?
I heard it second-hand, I will ask the source and hopefully have an answer soon.
To Gerry:
I realize that Nin ranked a little lower than many other pitchers in the system, but from a performance standpoint, he was really quite good. His K rates have never been "high" (around 6-6.5 per nine) so maybe his stuff is average all round, but he's always had very good control and never been outmatched - and he was moved along pretty conservatively. I see him being very similar to Jesse Harper, overall, who I also like. Mostly I'm being sentimental, since I first spotted him on the DSL roster, and watched him pretty closely since. In fact, I thought he would have been a good choice (along with DJ Hanson) to start the year in the Manchester rotation - because of his age, so the more heralded guys wouldn't have to be rushed, and because I thought he could reproduce what he did in Charleston.
I don't see Tree Thorpe having too much of a future, regardless of his good fastball or not. Another case of too much depth. I can't wait to see Rosario up and running again.
To Thomas:
Gassner to Minny? Argghh. There go TWO of my favourite prospects...where did you hear it?
I realize that Nin ranked a little lower than many other pitchers in the system, but from a performance standpoint, he was really quite good. His K rates have never been "high" (around 6-6.5 per nine) so maybe his stuff is average all round, but he's always had very good control and never been outmatched - and he was moved along pretty conservatively. I see him being very similar to Jesse Harper, overall, who I also like. Mostly I'm being sentimental, since I first spotted him on the DSL roster, and watched him pretty closely since. In fact, I thought he would have been a good choice (along with DJ Hanson) to start the year in the Manchester rotation - because of his age, so the more heralded guys wouldn't have to be rushed, and because I thought he could reproduce what he did in Charleston.
I don't see Tree Thorpe having too much of a future, regardless of his good fastball or not. Another case of too much depth. I can't wait to see Rosario up and running again.
To Thomas:
Gassner to Minny? Argghh. There go TWO of my favourite prospects...where did you hear it?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1686868
I posted this also on the Hijack thread.
John Sickels on the Jays Rule 5 pick RHP Talley Hanines.
"Toronto: Talley Haines, RHP, from the Devil Rays: A 25th-round pick in 1998 from Freed-Hardeman University in Tennessee. Haines, 27, posted a 2.53 ERA and 64/11 K/BB ratio in 68 innings for Triple-A Durham. He owns a 3.41 career minor-league ERA in 404 innings. Doesn't have awesome stuff, but throws strikes and keeps the ball down. He could fit in well as a bullpen utility pitcher."
Click on my name for the Full Rule 5 review.
I posted this also on the Hijack thread.
John Sickels on the Jays Rule 5 pick RHP Talley Hanines.
"Toronto: Talley Haines, RHP, from the Devil Rays: A 25th-round pick in 1998 from Freed-Hardeman University in Tennessee. Haines, 27, posted a 2.53 ERA and 64/11 K/BB ratio in 68 innings for Triple-A Durham. He owns a 3.41 career minor-league ERA in 404 innings. Doesn't have awesome stuff, but throws strikes and keeps the ball down. He could fit in well as a bullpen utility pitcher."
Click on my name for the Full Rule 5 review.
Ainge_fan
I rated Nin lower becuase of the strikeouts. His K/9 dropped from 7.4 to 6.0 this year as he was promoted to A from Low A. Generally as pitchers move higher in the system there is less chance to fool hitters so K rate has been shown to be a good indicator.
Harper had 6.9 K/9 at Dunedin. He ranked higher on two measures, first his performance was at one level higher than Nin, and secondly his K/9 was 15% higher.
Having said that Harper needs to improve his strikeouts to make it.
I know pitchers have made it with low K rates but they usually do not last long in the big leagues, or they are older so they have learned how to get by with "crafty" stuff.
I rated Nin lower becuase of the strikeouts. His K/9 dropped from 7.4 to 6.0 this year as he was promoted to A from Low A. Generally as pitchers move higher in the system there is less chance to fool hitters so K rate has been shown to be a good indicator.
Harper had 6.9 K/9 at Dunedin. He ranked higher on two measures, first his performance was at one level higher than Nin, and secondly his K/9 was 15% higher.
Having said that Harper needs to improve his strikeouts to make it.
I know pitchers have made it with low K rates but they usually do not last long in the big leagues, or they are older so they have learned how to get by with "crafty" stuff.
Fan 590 reports that Cliff Polite has been designated for assignment to make room on the 40 man roster for Haines.
Hope this doesn't come back to bite them. Politte was very good in 2002, and a lot of his ineffectiveness in 2003 was due to injury. Guess they figure he's a bit too pricey to bet on a return to 2002 form.
Hope this doesn't come back to bite them. Politte was very good in 2002, and a lot of his ineffectiveness in 2003 was due to injury. Guess they figure he's a bit too pricey to bet on a return to 2002 form.
Yes, Grilli was a can't miss prospect, first, I think, with the Giants, then with the Marlins. Live arm, injury problems, ineffective in his first few MLB trials. A fairly common story-line for pitching prospects.
What's bizarre about the M's off-season moves so far is that they have some cash to work with. I'm not suggesting the Mariners should have thrown $72 million at Miguel Tejada -- $72 million! just think how much he would have gotten if he had been a free agent after the 2002 season -- but surely they could have done better than Raul Ibanez and Scott Spiezio, two useful players but hardly impact players. It's looking more and more like 2004 may be the Year of The Angels, at least in the AL West, particularly if they can add another bat.
What's bizarre about the M's off-season moves so far is that they have some cash to work with. I'm not suggesting the Mariners should have thrown $72 million at Miguel Tejada -- $72 million! just think how much he would have gotten if he had been a free agent after the 2002 season -- but surely they could have done better than Raul Ibanez and Scott Spiezio, two useful players but hardly impact players. It's looking more and more like 2004 may be the Year of The Angels, at least in the AL West, particularly if they can add another bat.
This is possibly the first move that the Toronto manangment team has made this offseason that I do not agree with. Politte by all accounts had an off year, but I think he will bounce back in 2004 and I had hoped it would be with the Blue Jays.
The decision to non-tender him could be put down to the belief that JP is impatient, maybe he is, but I don't think patience was the overriding factor here. Like Gitz said in another thread about Beane, there has to be something JP knows that we don't.
I doubt that there is. The organisation must have seriously soured on Cliff, whether it was because of the injury or something else. Let's hope Haines does well because at this moment he seems to be Politte's replacement. It will be very interesting to see who has a better year.
I really think we should have kept Politte, someone comfort me with a good reason for letting him go.
The decision to non-tender him could be put down to the belief that JP is impatient, maybe he is, but I don't think patience was the overriding factor here. Like Gitz said in another thread about Beane, there has to be something JP knows that we don't.
I doubt that there is. The organisation must have seriously soured on Cliff, whether it was because of the injury or something else. Let's hope Haines does well because at this moment he seems to be Politte's replacement. It will be very interesting to see who has a better year.
I really think we should have kept Politte, someone comfort me with a good reason for letting him go.
Too bad about Nin, but hey. I actually think he could be a useful major-leaguer someday, but only in a middle relief role. His strikeouts did indeed decrease drastically this year, and it's pretty clear that he was going to get passed by a number of better prospects very soon. It's a good pickup for Colorado -- they really did well on this trade, assuming Kennedy's healthy -- but Nin is one of those guys who you keep around in an organization for just such a purpose: good, but not so good that you can't let go of him. At least he wasn't wasted like Rich Thompson, whom I'm very glad to hear will probably get a shot at a job in Kansas City.
I'll also be sad if Gassner goes, but it's also only a matter of time with him too. Again, although he could've been a helpful relief pitcher at some point down the line, I'd be quite happy if he was part of the mix that brought Bobby Kielty (and hence Ted Lilly) to Toronto.
There's one more PTBNL left, to Oakland to complete the Lilly trade -- I wonder who Billy's got his eye on. Seeing as how he hasn't exactly had a great off-season, there's reason to hope the Jays could emerge from Rule 5/PTBNL Day relatively unscathed. So far, so good.
I'll also be sad if Gassner goes, but it's also only a matter of time with him too. Again, although he could've been a helpful relief pitcher at some point down the line, I'd be quite happy if he was part of the mix that brought Bobby Kielty (and hence Ted Lilly) to Toronto.
There's one more PTBNL left, to Oakland to complete the Lilly trade -- I wonder who Billy's got his eye on. Seeing as how he hasn't exactly had a great off-season, there's reason to hope the Jays could emerge from Rule 5/PTBNL Day relatively unscathed. So far, so good.
I don't see Nin as a huge loss for the jays. There is no way that his departure "opened" the door for Harper or Rosario. Rosario will be brought back slowly this year and will be in AA as soon as he is ready. Next to McGowan , Harper is the only sure thing in the rotation. I don't see how a guy on the 40 man had to worry about a guy that the Jays did not see fit to protect. I do believe that you will see a more powerful Harper this year. Remember, he pitched all of 2002 with bone chips in his elbow and still put up a 2.16 era. He then went to Dunedin and went 13-4 with a 2.54 era with over 130 innings.This was done while he was on a strict pitch count and still recovering from elbow surgery to remove the bone chips. This will be our first chance to see him at full strength.This guy doesn't walk you and he doesn't let you get hard licks on him(11 HR's in three seasons).
What Baseball America has to say.
Talley Haines, rhp
For the third straight year in J.P. Ricciardi's tenure as GM, the Blue Jays have drafted and carried a righthander from the Rule 5 draft. Two years ago Corey Thurman turned in a solid rookie performance and last year Aquilino Lopez emerged as the closer. Though not as well known as his two predecessors, Haines has the ability to land a spot in the bullpen. He was 5-3, 2.53 for Triple-A Durham, striking out 64 against 11 walks in 68 innings. Haines offers two important ingredients for Rule 5 success: command and one potential out pitch (a splitter). His fastball is just average, though.
Seems quite a bit like Aquillino Lopez in his age, numbers and stuff. Lopez of course has that amazing slider, and somewhat pedestrian fastball, similar to Haines with his splitter.
Talley Haines, rhp
For the third straight year in J.P. Ricciardi's tenure as GM, the Blue Jays have drafted and carried a righthander from the Rule 5 draft. Two years ago Corey Thurman turned in a solid rookie performance and last year Aquilino Lopez emerged as the closer. Though not as well known as his two predecessors, Haines has the ability to land a spot in the bullpen. He was 5-3, 2.53 for Triple-A Durham, striking out 64 against 11 walks in 68 innings. Haines offers two important ingredients for Rule 5 success: command and one potential out pitch (a splitter). His fastball is just average, though.
Seems quite a bit like Aquillino Lopez in his age, numbers and stuff. Lopez of course has that amazing slider, and somewhat pedestrian fastball, similar to Haines with his splitter.
Dave Gassner as a PTBNL to Twins??
This has been mentioned off and on today, but yet to be offically anounced yet, I believe. For what it's worth, a fellow at a different site says he actually knows Mr. Gassner, spoke to him, and confirmed that Dick Scott has called him to let him know he'd been traded to the Twins.
This has been mentioned off and on today, but yet to be offically anounced yet, I believe. For what it's worth, a fellow at a different site says he actually knows Mr. Gassner, spoke to him, and confirmed that Dick Scott has called him to let him know he'd been traded to the Twins.
I was listening to BA radio on MLB.com, and since they are in Durham, e-mailed them a question about Talley Haines. To my surprise, it was answered. He's not as promising as Corey Thurman or as talented as Aquilino Lopez, I was told. They compared him to Jeff Tam; the good version that J.P. once found for Oakland. So they understand why Toronto took a flyer on him, but don't think he'll make the Jays. They did have nice things to say about Justin Speier earlier in the program.
Jeff Tam had himself a nice little run in his Oakland days, not dissimilar to Paul Quantrill. If Haines does a Tam impression, I think the Jays will find a place for him. I think his spot depends on who else the Jays add from other trades and non-tender acquisitions this winter.