I'm going to be a mean vindictive little bugger and say this, I hope Reed Johnson gets traded and I could barely care less for who? He had the season of his life, is way over-hyped, over-loved, over-whatever? And at times this annoys me.

He doesn't walk, and Tosca seemed to lose his better judgement and developed a man-crush on him and i fear whose development time could come at that expense in the future. Reed Johnson would have been a blessing in the Ash years, but we should expect more now. No more Phelps on the bench, figure out what the heck you're doing with Werth, who is also turning into nothing quick, and let's get on with the real prospects.

from the Baltimore article on the previous HC:
The Tejada situation is equally complex. The Detroit Tigers were rumored to have offered him a five-year, $50 million contract, but Tejada's agents got back to them with a counterproposal today, and the negotiations screeched to a halt.

"The difference is immense," Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski told reporters.

Waitaminute. If that's true, the Tigers offer is roughly 80% higher than any other deal I've heard of that mentioned him (which tend to max out around 3 years and 30 million). And then, Tejada responds to that already far above-market value offer with a counterproposal so high that it causes the Tigers to stop negotiating? What did he ask for, the Crown Jewels, Eliza Dushku and an island in the South Pacific?

I imagine he asked the Tigers for 15+ million per (ridiculous money noone in their right mind would pay him), and if he doesn't get it he'll sign with a contender.

Will Tejada be this year's winner of the annual "Oh, bugger, I should have taken that contract when it was offered" award?

Or is he just playing hardball because it's the Tigers and no sensible player would want to play in Detroit?

Only his agent knows for sure.

Will Tejada be this year's winner of the annual "Oh, bugger, I should have taken that contract when it was offered" award?

Isn't this award called the Juan Gonzalez award? Ironically, Juan's offer came from the Tigers as well.

Ironically, Juan's offer came from the Tigers as well.
After two prominent names looking for big dollars on the open market turn down the same club who is willing to pay more than any other team for their services, I have to think that there is serious questions about how the club is run throughout MLB player circles. In contrast, JP, Tosca and the existing roster have put together an image that attracts players without paying more than any other club would have and, in some cases, it seems as though it got them a discount.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1071361745303&call_pageid=968867503640&col=970081593064
Whew...

"The Jays have a minor-leaguer in Justin Singleton they could offer, but would likely have to give up a major leaguer as well. However, Ricciardi said the team will not give up Jayson Werth or Reed Johnson."

Also Bob Elliot talks about Hendrickson possibly going the other way for Speier.

This is not New Orleans related, but Rios popped another home run yesterday--his eighth. Also drove in 5 runs.

Correction: Rios hit two home runs (3 in two games) and now has nine HRs in 102 ABs.

Rumours are fun, aren't they? If Hendrickson is slotted for the Syracuse rotation, and is really unsuited for relief work, I'd rather part with him than Reed for Speier, who I like quite a bit. Matt Riley looked terrific in September. Both his starts came against the Jays, and because he was on a pitch count, he left early. Still, the O's won both games. He's not worth Phelps, but as a young lefty starter, he'll cost more than Werth.

I'm not trying to diminish what Rios is accomplishing in Puerto Rico, just giving it some context. His teammate, aging (and as far as I know, MLB-unemployed) utility infielder John Valentin, has 8 HR in 91 AB (297/407/648) and our own LF/1B/3B/DH Simon Pond, yet to sip SkyDome coffee, is tied for the league lead with 10 HR in 112 AB (286/355/607). It makes a guy wonder if all the estadios are as hitter-friendly as Hiram Bithorn, and question the depth of the pitching staffs.

Speculation is that Speier will cost about $1.6 million in arbitration next year. The arbitration panel takes the last three years performance into account. I thought it might be worthwhile to take a look at some of the numbers that the arbitration panel will look at and compare them to Politte's to see what he'll get in arbitration.

ERA WL SV G IP HRBB K BAA
Politte 4.11 6 11 13 145 149.0 18 53 135 .238
Speier 4.32 14 5 10 189 212.1 33 62 175 .242

Speier probably gets the edge because of the IP difference but they're really not all that different. My guess is Politte gets about $1.4-1.5 million. If they're willing to pay Speier that much, they may very well be considering paying Politte as well (unless it's an attitude problem or some other problem that we're not aware of with Cliff).

http://www.sports-wired.com/players/profile.asp?Name=FFD
Ever write a long post, only to forget to put your name in, hit the back button and find that there's nothing there?

Yeah, that just happened to me. Oy.

Long post summarized in short post:

1. Hendrickson for Spierer is fine with me.

2. Cash or Quiroz for Spierer wouldn't have a chance of happening (apparently Keith Law is a Cash fan, and Quiroz for a setup man is a joke).

3. Phelps for Riley? I'd consider it, and perhaps I'd pull the trigger. COMN for Riley's stats.

Essentially, while Phelps has a big upside the Jays have: many prospects that could fill the spot in the lineup (Gross, Werth, Rios), Phelps is a DH who K's a lot, you can acquire a really good hitter on a limited budget (but is much, much harder for pitching) and the Jays offense is really strong with or without Phelps

Riley's recovered nicely from a 2001 injury and I would probably rank him as the Jays #2 pitching prospect if he were acquired (behind McGowan). He might even be ready for a role in the Jays pen this year, although I assume he'd be on the half season in the minors & half year in Toronto that the Jays like to do with their prospects.

I'd be interested in Greg - O's fans thoughts on the rumored deal.

Ryan - you need to consider Spierer has pitched in Colorado.

Spierer - ERA+
2001 - 109
2002 - 113
2003 - 118

Politte - ERA+
2001 - 176 (in only 26 innings)
2002 - 118
2003 - 83

I don't think there's a big difference, but I'd take Spierer.

Of course, I don't think that acquiring Spierer means you need to get rid of Politte. With those 2 and AL and KL you could have 4 pretty good righties in the pen.

On another board, one guy posted that the proposed deal was Berg and Singleton for Speier. Do it in a heartbeat. The Fighting Jays could slip out of the FA market for pitchers (well, maybe just one more), save a little compared to the FA's, get comparable performance and not be locked in to multiple years. With Politte, that's four guys who could finish games.
If it's Hendrikson, I wouldn't mind either - he'd get lit up like a Christmas tree at Coors.
Riley for Phelps - this year this deal sounds a little lopsided in Balt's favour, but a year from now, might not seem so. Might be a deal you'd regret not making.
Guys coming back from elbow surgery often do fine, and he seems back on track. Projects as a better rotation option than Arnold does right now.
I wouldn't be opposed to moving Werth/Johnson and Arnold for Riley. Still not sure on Phelps, but Pistol makes a convincing case. The Jays don't have a LHP in AA or AAA who's close to him.
Can't blame Tejada for asking the Tigers to grossly overpay...in fact, it would be foolish to not ask considering that the press
has reported that Illitch has instructed his GM to overpay.

Oh I realize that Speier pitches in Colorado, but as far as I know the arbitration committee doesn't go that deep into the statistics to consider park effects, ERA+ etc. The point of my post was simply to try to get a better estimate of what Politte would get in arbitration.

Ever write a long post, only to forget to put your name in, hit the back button and find that there's nothing there?

Pistol, I hate it when that happens. Once in a while you can salvage it by hitting the forward button (depending on your browser, you might even have to refresh) then you can either click Post or, if it's not finished, copy it and paste it into a new comment. But sometimes, Greymatter just eats them.

The difference between Phelps and the prospects behind him is 2005 readiness. Though we're all wishing, hoping and praying that Delgado wants to stay so much he takes a 50% pay cut, it may not happen. Josh isn't irreplaceable for '04, but he might be essential in '05. Having Riley in the rotation would be great (158 K, 56 BB in 152.2 IP over three levels last year suggests to me that he can start) but especially considering the injury risk, I wouldn't part with Phelps for him.

Oh I realize that Speier pitches in Colorado, but as far as I know the arbitration committee doesn't go that deep into the statistics to consider park effects, ERA+ etc

Yeah, I realized after posting you were making an arbitration argument.

The arbitration panel would consider whatever you presented to them. It's just a matter of how much weight they would put on it.

so what is this deal for a reliever that JP is talking about? he's quoted as saying on torontobluejays.com that the team would be taking on salary which in turn would mean they would have no money left to sign another reliever ... this leads me to believe he's talking about something a little bigger than Speier -- i guess i could be wrong here, but that's the vibe i get ...

I usually check out Mike Berardino's stuff in the Sun-Sentinel, and today he calls baseball's economics seriously wacky. He expects another 40 or 50 arbitration-eligible players to be non-tendered.

That will flood the market with another four dozen or so bargains, thus further driving down the price of similar free agents.

That's why the agents are already carping about the need to move up the non-tender date and possibly the Dec. 7 date as well in the next Basic Agreement. Free agency used to be essentially done by the holidays; now it's just starting.

The agents are carping about a lot of things these days, and the "C" word is never far from their lips, but the landscape has changed, and this is a good point. All the more impressive that J.P. has done almost all of his Christmas shopping early.

Wilner said the trade is done and it appears to be Werth for Speier. Announcement is expected in 25 minutes.

Wilner reports that Jayson Werth has been traded for Justin Spierer

ESPN reporting different. Hendrickson to Tampa, Kennedy to Rockies, Speier to Toronto.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1686109
Interesting. ESPN is saying that it is a three team deal with Hendrickson going to Tampa, and Kennedy going to Colorado.

Wilner reports that Jayson Werth has been traded for Justin Spierer

As one of the bigger Werth supports around these parts I'm obviously not a big fan of this trade if it goes through.

I realize the Jays have OF depth, but it still seems too much for my taste. You should be able to pick up a reliever just as good as Spierer for the amount he's going to be paid next year, without having to give a player up.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1686109
Done Deal

Speir to TO
Hendrickson to TBay
Kennedy to Col

If it is Hendrickson going the other way, I'm a big fan of this deal. I was finding it hard to believe that Hendrickson was going to make the 25 man roster anyway, so trading him before teams start to think he has less value makes sense. I'm glad Tampa took the bait.

Interesting. ESPN is saying that it is a three team deal with Hendrickson going to Tampa, and Kennedy going to Colorado.

Now that's more like it!

This is great.

Quite aside from the addition of Speier and the fact that I think Hendrickson was the most expendible of the players being talked about as trade bait, Jay-killer Joe Kennedy's now in the NL West, where he can't hurt the Jays any more.

Huzzah!

Initial reaction ... why isn't this deal simply Kennedy-for-Hendrickson? If the Jays are looking for left-handed arms, why not just take notorious Jay-killer Kennedy and leave Colorado out of it? And why are the Rays taking a clearly inferior LH starter in exchnage for a potentially dominant one? Very strange.

Here's a question:

Would anyone be in favour of a Hendrickson-Kennedy swap between the Jays and Rays? It seems it could have happened, but in my opinion, it shouldn't have.

Dammit Jordan! We think too much alike.

From Jerry Crasnick's Insider Report on ESPN.com (freely available):

NEW ORLEANS -- Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi copes with severe financial limitations in his quest to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. Rumor has it that he's begun shoveling snow off neighborhood driveways at $20 a pop to earn some spare free-agent spending money.

But Ricciardi is never too busy conversing with agents or fellow executives to keep his constituents informed. He even set up a Hot Stove hotline in his office this winter. When Cy Young winner Roy Halladay and outfielder Vernon Wells wanted updates on the team's off-season agenda, Ricciardi gave them the blow-by-blow.

"Vernon Wells called me a month ago out of the blue," Ricciardi said Friday. "I said, 'What's going on, Vernon -- you need something? He said, 'No, I just wanted to call and see how it's going.' "

The answer, judging from winter meetings lobby banter at the New Orleans Marriott, is pretty well, thanks. While the Yankees and Red Sox continue to dominate the seam-head chat rooms, Ricciardi has made several stealth acquisitions to elevate an 86-win team from intriguing to borderline dangerous.

And why are the Rays taking a clearly inferior LH starter in exchnage for a potentially dominant one?

Besides having age on his side I don't see much with Kennedy. He only strikes out 5 per 9.

Of course, I'd take him over Hendrickson.

Anyway ... Speier is an excellent pickup for Hendrickson, and would've been a justifiable return even for Werth (though I'm glad Jayson is apparently still in the fold). Speier has accomplished something unusual in Colorado these past 2 1/2 years -- he's pitched well: fewer hits than innings pitched and a roughly 3-1 K/BB ratio. Like Batista, he has a low 90s fastball complemented by a good splitter; despite that, though, he's a flyball pitcher (and has been even before moving to Coors), so Vernon and friends will continue to get a workout. He's averaged about 70 IP the last three years and is good for slightly more than an inning per outing. His LH/RH splits are very good, practically even; he's not a one-batter-and-out kind of pitcher, which in ToscaLand is critical.

I'm quite happy with this deal. Hendrickson had no future with the Jays, not with an improved rotation in 2004 and an even better one coming up in 2005. He was also pretty clearly not suited for the pen. So in exchange for a Syracuse rotation stalwart, the Jays get a solid veteran bullpen arm who can provide 70 medium- to high-leverage innings for about a million plus. That's some nice work.

Jordan, Brent;

I don't know if that would have been a great trade for the Jays. I don't know if Toronto wanted a left-hander, they didn't get one, since Speier is right-handed. And while Kennedy, as we all know, has been murder on Toronto, he was putrid otherwise last year and his stats don't look all that promising; less than a strikeout every other inning. He could well be an average starter over his career, but I don't see incipient dominance.

Why not Hendrickson for Kennedy? I can think of a few potential reasons:

a) The Jays think there's something seriously wrong with him after last season. He threw nearly 200 innings as a 23 year-old and came back utterly dreadful.
b) J.P. was serious when he said he thinks the bullpen may be more important than the rotation.
c) J.P. really wants to give Josh Towers the last starting spot.

Done Deal

Speir to TO
Hendrickson to TBay
Kennedy to Col

I agree with Jordan and Brent. This seems very strange. My gut reaction is that Kennedy is probably worth both Hendrickson and Speier. Also, Blue's link works but when I try to find the story by going through ESPN first I can't find a link to it anywhere. Doesn't seem to be anything wrong with my browser.... Weird.

Pistol, it's true that Kennedy hasn't shown much in the majors yet, and 2003 was a total disaster for him (3-12, 6.13). But he's only 24, and his minor-league totals look like this: 380 IP, 329 H, 94 BB, 369 K. He made his ML debut in 2001 at the age of 22: he started the year in the Double-A Southern League with a staggering 47-29-3-52 line. I think he was rushed to the big leagues in a moronic organization that didn't help him grow up (remember that beanball incident with the Jays a while back?) and allowed him to flounder in the majors. It's a shame he's going to Colorado; it's quite possible he'll never reach his potential now. Good deal for the Rox, great deal for the Jays, another unfathomable deal for the Devil Rays. If Tim Wilken was even partly responsible for talking Chuck Lamar into this, JP should send him a fruit basket and a bottle of champagne.

So the bullpen is now:

Lopez
Lightenberg
Miller
Kershner
Speier
Walker

The bullpen looks pretty complete. Politte must be getting non-tendered, and the Jays must not be picking up a Rule 5 pitcher. I can't see there being that much of a budget crunch though. Speier, even if he doubles his salary, is only going to make 1.7 million. Politte made 845,000 and Hendrickson made 300,000 last year. That's only an increase of approximately 500,000, if you assume last year's salaries.

Here's the link from ESPN.com

Johnny, try hitting Refresh -- I also couldn't get the ESPN story the first time, but I managed it after Refreshing.

I did say "gut reaction." Ignore my post.

D'oh.

Do people think the Jays will carry eleven or twelve pitchers? I seem to remember starting with eleven last year, and rapidly going to twelve as Tosca began his year-long pitching bacchanal. I'd like to see an eleven man staff, but will it happen?

Good deal for the Rox, great deal for the Jays, another unfathomable deal for the Devil Rays

If you'd rather have Kennedy, wouldn't it be the best move for Colorado?

The bullpen looks pretty complete. Politte must be getting non-tendered, and the Jays must not be picking up a Rule 5 pitcher.

Towers isn't a certainty to be successful in the 5th spot so Walker may need to fill in there creating a spot in the pen. Plus, I believe the Jays carried 12 pitchers last year?

I wouldn't rule out a Rule 5 pitcher, Politte, or another signing for the pen just yet.

i think jp has been making deals this year based on performance over potential. bullpen looks pretty good although i would have liked the reliver to be lefthanded. kershner is not a lefthanded specialist. in fact, he does not even have the plus hard breaking ball. miller might run out of gas in the second year after a very long first for him.

If you'd rather have Kennedy, wouldn't it be the best move for Colorado?

I should clarify -- given the choice between Speier and Kennedy, I won't second-guess JP's decision: if he think he needs bullpen help today more than rotation help a year or two from now, I won't argue; he does need bullpen help today. And maybe there's stuff about Kennedy we don't know.

I think Colorado and Toronto are both winners here, but I think the Jays are the bigger winners, because they took a commodity that seemed to have very little value and turned it into a major-league reliever and possible closer. The Rockies got a great deal of raw potential, but they did give up a useful item to do it. Still, were I in Denver, I'd do Speier-for-Kennedy all week long and twice on Sunday.

Dan O'Dowd should, IMO, send Kennedy to the minors to start 2004 and let him get himself straightened out again. The guy needs a break from the pattern of losing and failure he's been subjected to in the Devil Ray organization. His upside is very intriguing.

Welcome aboard Justin Speier (or Spierer or Spier) as some in this thread have called him. He's pitched awfully well during his stint in Coors and largely in anonymity.

With Speier, there is a Canadian connection. He is the son of Chris Speier, a Montreal Expo in the 70's and 80's who I believe also played some major intercountry ball in London (not 100% sure).

Hendrickson will not be missed. Precious few Mark Hendricksons grow up to be Jamie Moyer. More often than they not, they become Dave Fleming/Allan Anderson flame outs. There may be a loogy rule in Hendrickson's future, but I can't foresee much success as a SP.

This was a nice move by Ricciardi and company.

But at this point, does Toronto really need any more starters? The rotation is pretty set for next year, with only Hentgen signed for one year. Halladay, Batista and Lilly should all be here for multiple years. The Jays have several options to round out the rotation: Towers, Justin Miller or Walker. I think it would be pretty safe to assume one of Arnold, McGowan and Bush should be in the rotation by 2005. Kennedy is almost redundant, which is a shock considering the state of the pitching staff at the end of the season.

And now for something completely different: Joel Sherman is reporting in the NY Post that Cashman may be done with the Yankees after this season.

Steinbrenner barred Cashman or any Yankee official from attending these meetings, which is viewed as another slap at his GM. When reached yesterday at his Connecticut home, Cashman refused comment on his long-range plans.

"I have no idea what my future entails. I will do the best I can to give advice to ownership while I am here. I will not predict the future. I'm fully committed to the job at hand and going forward day-to-day."

Informed what confidants of his were saying based on conversations with him, Cashman said he would not comment on private talks.

Ah, rumours. True, or not, Cashman has my sympathy and admiration. His job might be the toughest in baseball in some respects and the most rewarding in others.

Coors Effect: Justin Speier's home-road splits the last three years.

Home
4.98 ERA, 115 IP, 113 H, 40 BB, 111 K, 22 HR, .249 Opp. BA
Away
3.48 ERA, 94 IP, 80 H, 22 BB, 64 K, 11 HR, .231 Opp. BA

Interesting that his strikeout rate is markedly better at home. But the HRs, Opp. BA and ERA all drop considerably on the road. I think Justin will like Skydome just fine.

Personally, I'm disappointed by the trade. I felt that Hendrickson and Lidle were the pitchers most affected by the defensive failings of the left side of the infield, and that Hendrickson's poor statistics last year were not a reflection of either his ability or his effort.

Hendrickson's career line, adjusted for park, is about equivalent to Lilly's. Subjectively, you could like Lilly based on his performance at the end of 2003, but really it was little different from Hendrickson's performance at the end of 2002. I felt that prior to this deal, the Fighting Jays had 3 solid starters in Halladay, Batista and Hentgen and 3 starters who could be OK in Lilly, Hendrickson and Towers. This is a good position to be in.

Now, for the sake of a capable middle reliever, they have really no options if either Towers or Lilly does not perform at the beginning of the season (Bush, McGowan or Arnold are not likely to be ready until mid-season).

Speier is OK, but he's behind Lopez, Ligtenberg and Kershner, although generally of the same quality.

As a D-Rays fan, isn't it fair to assume that our organization facilitated this trade by offering Kennedy to Colorado in exchange for Hendrickson because the Rockies had zero interest in Hendrickson.

And if so, that would make the second middle relief pitcher we have given to our division rivals.

Please blow up my team and put me out of my misery. Thank you.

Yet another positive development.

I feel Speier has been typically under-valued ,( J.P. stated he's had his eye on him for awhile.)Hendrickson however, is a project. The Jays have moved to a spot on the competition curve where they can't afford such luxuries. Frankly I think Bruce Chen is as much a valid option as Hendrickson. With a nuetral 1.30 G/flyball ratio I'm not sure how much of a factor poor left sided infield defence was responsible for Mark's poor results.

Count my thumb as up too.

Hendrickson's career line, adjusted for park, is about equivalent to Lilly's.

Mike, can you please point out these stats to me? Seeing as neither Lilly nor Lurch was ever a rotation regular before last year, aren't last year's stats more relevant (such as 1.56 WHIP for Mark and 1.33 for Lilly)? Granted, this is not park adjusted, but Hendrickson simply never impressed me. He was always 1 start away from being dumped from the rotation, and never showed the consistent command or mechanics he needs to be anything more than a .500 pitcher. Good luck to him, but I would do this deal for Speier any day of the week.

Mike Green,

Lilly strikes out a lot of guys; Hendrickson doesn't. Thus ends any and all potential comparisons between these two pitchers.

maybe there's stuff about Kennedy we don't know

Maybe, just maybe, there's a lot of stuff we don't know, not just about Kennedy. Speier is the guy who J.P. wanted and needed, but he didn't want to give up anyone but Hendrickson. O'Dowd may have been asking for more, and who knows, said something like "He's almost 30, it's not like he's Joe Kennedy."

Tampa didn't like the guy they had; you can wear out a welcome in a town. Lurch impressed them enough as an opponent and as a good guy that they feel it's an upgrade. Everyone's happy. Colorado takes by far the biggest risk for by far the biggest potential reward.

There has been no greater supporter of Mark Hendrickson than yours truly. I own him in several fantasy leagues, and I have given him the benefit of the doubt on numerous occasions when others were writing him off. I hope he does very well for the Rays, except when he's facing the Fighting Jays. However, it's clear that he was viewed as a spare part, a AAA starter, so Speier is an excellent return.

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=mlb/news/AAN2951038.htm
More details on the trade.

The Sports Network is reporting Hendrickson and a player to named for Speir to Colorado then Rockies flipped Hendrickson to Devil Rays for Kennedy.

Click my name for link.

Another thumbs up from this guy. If only Sprint Training started, say, tomorrow.

Maybe we can non-tender Pollite and make a play for Ben Weber anyway. Then I'd be yet another step closer to happiness! Has there ever ben a better time for major Toronto sports? Raps 5-1 and averaging 101.8 PPG since the big trade, the Jays starting to look like a threat, and the Leafs having picked up 21 of their last possible 22 points and sitting second in the entire league? I don't live in Ontario, but those are the three teams I cheer for. I'm lovin' it...

Speier is OK, but he's behind Lopez, Ligtenberg and Kershner, although generally of the same quality.

Mike, how do you know who's "ahead" and who's "behind?"

Speier has a bit more experience than Lopez, and a splitter that may be a better pitch against lefty hitters than Aquilino's slider. I think one of those two will be the closer, if Tosca insists on making that designation. Ligtenberg and Kershner are, in my opinion, strictly viewed as setup guys, not in the ninth-inning mix. Miller, who could become more of a LOOGY, and Walker seem closest to the bubble if someone better becomes available and affordable.

From the story Jeff G. linked above, J.P. may or may not be indicating the RH pecking order:

"We feel like with (Aquilino) Lopez, (Kerry) Ligtenberg and now Justin we have three quality arms in our bullpen that can enable us to bridge hopefully the seventh, eighth and ninth together."

I'll say Speier gets the job out of spring training and ends up with the most saves, but Lopez earns quite a few of the two-inning variety.

I think this is a solid trade as well. To me, we're giving up nothing for something. I was never high on Hendrickson. His numbers are terrible, and he's too old to be a prospect. If he wasn't a really tall lefty he wouldn't have a spot on anybody's roster (and might not be in baseball). The Jays, with their limited finances, need to reward performance in their contracts. High risk/high reward players (Escobar) just don't fit into our budget since we cannot afford to make the mistakes that some other teams can. I don't think we'll look back on Hendrickson as "the one that got away". I shudder at the thought of what his numbers would have looked like in Colorado...

I was hopeful we could convince a Benitez-type to come to toronto on a one year contract as a way of re-establishing themselves as a legit closer. This move suggests to me that that wasn't going to happen. Given that, losing Hendrickson is not a concern, and we've added another quality arm to the bullpen.

As an aside, I think Politte could, if healthy, bounce back and have a solid year as a 7th/8th inning guy. It doesn't seem like that is going to happen in toronto.

The PTBNL seems to confirm Jordan's view that the Jays were the big winners of the trade, though Colorado is the team receiving this player, so perhaps they come out on top, depending on who we are giving them. As has been mentioned, Colorado is clearly dealing for potential, not immediate performance.

I tend to agree with Coach that Hendrickson must have been viewed as a spare part by JP and co. Towers was impressive down the stretch and the 5th rotation spot was his. With that in mind, Hendrickson just didn't seem to be the type of player JP wanted in our revamped pen (let alone down in Syracuse).

When news of this trade for Speier or Weber first leaked, it was rumoured to have Reed Johnson going the other way. I for one am glad we are holding the fort with our current OF set-up. Perhaps Reed and Jayson end up traded or benched when Gross/Pond/Rios show up later in the year, but for now, we need the flexibility afforded us with Cat/Johnson/Werth occupying the corners of our OF.

A final thought: now that JP has worked his magic this offseason, I think we should start working on new slogans to bring fans back to the dome. How about: "2004 Fighting Jays - same great offence, and a pitching staff behind Doc that no longer blows goats".

Anyone who had Joe Kennedy on their roto/fantasy team knows why Tampa did this deal.

Speaking as one of those Joe Kennedy owners, he was certainly a disappointment last year. I think he may need to take the Roy Halladay route to AA/AAA to get things straightened out, and that may work in the end. But I'd still wouldn't draft him next year.

For those(like me)who've never seen Speir, here's a scouts take on him.

"He's got arm strength. He'll get it up there at 91-92 mph from a side armed angle. He's got a big slider to go with it. He's got a split for lefties. His success is predicated on pounding the ball low in the strike -zone."

Here's his 3 year splits.I like the fact he doesn't have huge platoon differentials(are you reading this Mr. Tosca).

Bronx Banter checks in from N'awlins. Alex Belth is rapidily becoming a staple of my baseball diet.

Perhaps the Ticker story summarizes the trade best: "The Toronto Blue Jays continued to revamp their pitching staff Sunday, while the Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Devil Rays just are willing to take a chance on a couple of struggling left-handers."

Meh.... not a bad trade, but nothing spectacular. I think Colorado made out very well in this deal. They had a guy that they were seriously considering non-tendering and turned him into a pretty decent young lefty. I wasn't as down on Hendrickson as others, and I do think he'll be a pretty decent LOOGY at worst for several more years, despite what Tosca thinks.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_news.jsp?ymd=20031214&content_id=617799&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor
Some notes from the cover story at bluejays.com:

Speier, who made $850,000 in 2003 and is arbitration-eligible, may have been non-tendered by the Rockies, meaning the Jays could have signed him as a free agent without having to give anything up after Dec. 20. But when presented with this opportunity, Ricciardi decided it was better to act now.

"Instead of waiting, and letting other teams get involved, we beat them to the punch," he said.

...

"If something's out there and we can afford it, we'll [do it]," said Ricciardi, adding anything new would most likely come via the free agent route. "We'll watch the non-tenders closely. We have the money in line and we'll use it the best way we can."

I concur with Coach's forecasted role for Speier. There's your saves leader, though not a guy who gobbles up all the saves.

As a "flat" pitcher (equal vs. LHB and RHB), Speier is the safest bet for the 9th inning, especially since this is when the LH pinch-hitters are most likely to emerge.

Lopez and Ligtenberg have shown a tendency to be "hard" righties, i.e., much more effective vs RHB than LHB. As such, if their weakness against LHB is more than a sample size illusion, they are better used in situational roles, matching up against sequences predominantly composed of RHB. I do have faith that Lopez can improve vs LHB, however.

Politte, another hard righty, may find himself out of a job due to redundancy alone.

Miller will be a middle inning LOOGY and with the three solid righties, Kershner may be reduced to a late inning LOOGY, though he did a decent job vs RHB last year.

With Speier, Lopez, Ligtenberg, Kershner and Lopez, the team figures to carry one more reliever (and hopefully not two). The loser in the 5th starter sweepstakes, likely Pete Walker, is my guess for the long man role.

depending on who we are giving them

As usual, I don't think J.P. is exposing anyone that figures prominently in his plans. It's being reported as another PTBNL or cash, with $100,000 or so my guess. Between Rule 5 and the various players without names, a few minor leaguers may be in new organizations shortly, but nobody who was likely to ever make the big club in this organization.

Do people think the Jays will carry eleven or twelve pitchers?

They were hoping for quality to emerge from quantity last year; they had a Rule 5 guy and a brutal early schedule against high-powered offensive teams. Eleven good pitchers makes the 12th guy even more unnecessary, and in 2004 they get two series with the Tigers and a few off days in the first month. I will be flabbergasted if they carry 12 pitchers.

I assume that the Jays have done their homework, know Justin wants to be with them, and have a ballpark idea of what he'll cost. This is one of those cases where both sides benefit from a one year deal. Instead of being locked into something like $4 MM for two years, if he gets 30+ saves and becomes a free agent Proven Closer, he could cash in somewhere else next winter and the Jays would score the draft picks. It's a potential win-win, as long as he does the job.

I hate the Yankees but I really liked the piece in the Bronx Banter about the winter meetings and how the Yanks are going back to 80's mode.

Keep going crazy George!

A must read as recommended by Johnny Mack!

130267 Posted 12/14/2003 02:09 PM by Johnny Mack:

Bronx Banter checks in from N'awlins. Alex Belth is rapidly becoming a staple of my baseball diet.

Click my name for the link or go up to Johnny Mack link.

It's quite possible the PTBNL is Singleton as his named was mentioned a few times. He might make a decent 4th outfielder some day, but had no future in Toronto. I believe once minor league rosters have been set then players who are not on a major league roster can't be traded until after the rule 5 draft, so that would be why he hasn't been named yet.

Coach it sounds like you're under the impression that Speier is a free agent next year. As far as I can tell he's still two years away from free agency or have you heard differently? He only made $310,000 in 2002 so 2003 was his first arbitration year. Meaning he's still got two arbitration years left.

Whew...I was another fan of Reed Johnson and didn't want to see him go. I thought losing Reed right now would really thin our OF (even though its deep in the minors).

The thing is, your options just become that much more limited when you trade Reed, and I really liked the nucleus we had last year in the OF. Mind you, we lost Bobby Kielty, but he was always the odd man out (4th OF at best) in our system. Reed fit in well and even though he doesn't draw a lot of walks, he has good speed and plays good defense. With Reed here, the prospects can be eased into the OF positions (and not just given the spot to succeed or fail). If, for example, Gross won over the RF position and struggles, it not only hurts his confidence, but we run out of options and 'test' another OF prospect. I don't like running this risk, I'd prefer they earn the position.

I had the same feeling about any other OF prospect (Werth, Gross, FordGriffin, etc) and would have been reluctant to trade any of them.

If I could pick 1 player on the 25 man roster I wouldn't mind parting with, it would be Hendrickson. He's the odd man out in our rotation, he never really fit into the bullpen (he was too inconsistent), and the Jays could be better off without him. I woulda forsaw Hendrickson go down to AAA and we just don't have the pitching spots to give him the light of day.

This trade worked out great. I am very pleased.

I assume that the deal was a three-way deal because Colorado didn't want Hendrickson, and Tampa Bay did.

I've never thought much of Hendrickson, and there really isn't a place for him in Toronto now, so getting anything for him is a plus. Better still, it looks like Speier is actually a serviceable reliever: his ERA the last two years is respectable, and he actually has some experience closing games. (Which gives the Jays three pitchers who have closing experience: Lopez, Ligtenberg, and Speier.)

J.P. is making out like a bandit in this off-season, isn't he? He's built a complete pitching staff at a decent price. While I think one of Lilly or Hentgen is likely to blow up in 2004, and I don't rate Towers much, it's definitely true that (a) the Jays are going into 2004 with a lot better pitching staff than in 2003, and (b) any pitcher is always putting his career at risk any time he goes out there. And Hentgen/Lilly are safer risks than Kevin Brown and David Wells.

Compare J.P. to the Baltimore front office: they have oodles of money to spend, and haven't done a blessed thing. My guess is that Flanagan/Beattie are bogged down by bureaucracy - they probably can't make a long-distance phone call without first clearing it with Angelos. Whereas Ted Rogers and Paul Godfrey, to their credit, probably have just said, "Here, J.P., you can spend this much. We don't know enough about baseball to figure out who to spend it on. Do what you think is best."

When the Yankees and Red Sox finish their dance of death, I am predicting that a certain team wearing spanking new blue uniforms is likely to make a significant impact on the AL East next year. Consider me a very happy camper.

Thanks, Johnny Mack, for the Bronx Banter link. I know exactly how Alex feels; his encounter with Howard Bryant of the Boston Herald, whose book Belth hadn't liked, reminds me of my first meeting with Geoff Baker in the SkyDome press box. After one awkward moment, where I almost hoped he'd never read Batter's Box, we found common ground, agreeing that his infamous "Rain Man" piece wasn't well edited.

When you're not a "real" reporter, with no deadline to meet and no editor to please, it's interesting just to watch the action unfold, and you can get a perspective that the working press takes for granted, but is fascinating to a fan.

The teams all set up shop upstairs in suites. It's like their own individual war rooms. They pour over data, scheme, and carry out their plan of attack. The general managers mostly remain upstairs, preferring to send out assistants to comb the lobby to see what is shaking down. Even if nothing is officially happening, the buzz is constant. Guys say, "Well, if this team makes this move and this guy signs with that team, then we are going to make this move and sign this player."

I'm glad that Alex found a way to post from New Orleans and is having such a good time.

I was wondering how likely it is that JP could find a backup SS in the Rule 5 draft. I'm guessing there are a truckload of no-hit, all-defence SS in the minor leagues. Finding the next Cesar Izturis but maybe a bit older and no longer sprinkled with prospect dust shouldn't be difficult. I'd rather take a chance on one of these players rather than spend 1M or more on a Graffanino or Sanchez. What does everyone else think?

Oh yeah, count me as another Bauxite in favour of getting rid of Hendrickson. It's not so much that last year's numbers were bad but that I saw no improvement as the year progressed.

That Bronx Banter article was great; thanks for the link. Like Kent, I've also had the painfully direct experience of realizing that what I write here is read by real people elsewhere -- and sometimes they don't like it, not at all. That odometer box over in the left-hand margin isn't just a bunch of numbers; it's a reminder that what we say at Da Box really does reach a wide audience. Someone once advised a seminar I attended, "Never put anything in an e-mail that you would be uncomfortable seeing published on the front page of the Globe & Mail." To that, I would add: whatever you write about someone -- a player, a GM, a reporter -- write it as if that person is going to be reading those words today. For many reasons, ranging from simple decency to self-preservation, it pays to be careful, measured and professional in your written Internet opinion.

In that vein, I'll offer this suggestion to the Bronx Banter gang: that's a terrific article, and I enjoyed it very much. But if you're going to be criticizing a sportswriter because his book was poorly edited, you need to make sure your own work doesn't have typos and errors as well.

My guess is that Flanagan/Beattie are bogged down by bureaucracy - they probably can't make a long-distance phone call without first clearing it with Angelos. Whereas Ted Rogers and Paul Godfrey, to their credit, probably have just said, "Here, J.P., you can spend this much. We don't know enough about baseball to figure out who to spend it on. Do what you think is best."

Brilliant, Dave. The Orioles aren't dysfunctional in exactly the same way as the Yankees, but there are a lot of similarities, including a boss that's a bit too involved, decisions being made by committee, and a lot of employees more concerned with covering their own backsides than doing what's best for the team.

he's still got two arbitration years left.

Thanks for the correction, Ryan. I just assumed, and didn't even check his status. If that's the case, and I was Speier, I'd still prefer a one year deal, but the team might try to tie him up for both years at setup money, or split the difference. If they do agree on just one year, and he does so well that he's going to get another substantial raise next winter in arbitration, the Jays will have three choices: cough up the cash, trade him or non-tender him. Letting him walk for "A" compensation picks might not happen until 2006, but it could still benefit both parties, and it allows one more year for Adam Peterson to grow into the role.

Most of us are wildly optimistic these days, but there's always the possibility that the Jays will be sellers instead of buyers at the July deadline, when Speier (along with Lightenberg, Cat, and Myers) might be a useful trade chip.

Speier can pitch. I haven't seen much of him since he left the American League (why is it that Colorado are never on ESPN or Diamond Surfing or anything? I find Coors games fascinating and never get to watch them) but statistically his numbers are excellent. Particularly his strikeout numbers; it is very hard to post high strikeout totals in Colorado, but Speier's are quite good.

His good ERA+ numbers the last few years are bolstered by the fact he has allowed very few unearned runs, so stat analysis shows to him to be a well-above-average pitcher (15 Runs Saved Above Average from 2001 to 2003). He's 47th among full-time relievers in that span, and add in his excellent 2000 and he moves to 35th... two spots below fellow Jay Kerry Ligtenberg.

Other full-time relievers with 28-30 RSAA in that span (like those guys) are Kaz Sasaki, Billy Koch, Jason Grimsley, and Scott Strickland. So clearly, Speier's results have been very good.

Getting him for Mark Hendrickson is a good deal. Hendrickson has some potential, but the Jays aren't in the business of trying to harness potential right now, they're in the business of winning ballgames, and the long and short of it is that Speier will probably win them more games than he loses, and Hendrickson won't. He's 29 years old and frankly, it's going to be very hard for him to have long-term success as a soft-tossing lefty, when he missed five-plus years of development time and experience - the exact thing a soft-tossing lefty needs to develop the necessary guile.

I was actually at the Raptor game today and they had the TSN update and I didn't quite make out who the Jays got so I just got home to find out :D

I don't know much about Speier tho it seems he's pretty good from what i'm hearing here. I didn't really think Hendrickson fit with the Jays longterm plans which is too bad cuz I personally liked him. I just hope he doesn't cave in to the pressure by Uncle Lou in Tampa. Nonetheless this should be a good trade for the Jays in that it gives them some depth at SP which they can exploit down the road.

Robert Dudek,

Yes, Lilly does strike out more than Hendrickson, and so he's the better long-term bet. But, I personally believe that Hendrickson will work his K rate up to the 5-5.5/9IP that he needs to succeed for the next 2-3 years. It is just a subjective impression, but my point was that I'd rather have the additional 5th starter option for this year and next, than another capable but not outstanding reliever. It seems that I'm in a minority of one.

The conventional thinking a few years ago was that a starter who could go 150-180 innings capably was at least twice as valuable as the 75 inning middle reliever. This thinking has, by looking at the comments above, and by the salaries that the middle relievers have obtained compared to the starters this off-season, changed. The funny thing is that at the minor league level, teams including the Fighting Jays, are making risky starter-to-reliever conversions (Bush, Maureau) on the basis that starters are much more valuable.

I hope that I am wrong about this one, and more importantly that Lilly and Towers pitch decently in the 1st half, so that the option was not required.

As Dave Till pointed out, I think that this is a good deal simply because I don't think Hendrickson would have made the Jays this year. To swap that for a member of your bullpen is a good move; to swap that for someone who has the potential to be your bullpen ace is outstanding.
I like Hendrickson but simply don't think he's talented enough to ever be more than a 5th starter. People comparing him with Jamie Moyer seem to forget how unusual Moyer's accomplishments are.

I didn't see any estimates as to how much Speier will be earning; but if he only got 310,000 last year, it has to be less than a million. From the most-recently quoted budget figures I've seen, this leaves us with about $2.5 million left. So, looks like we'll be going into the year about a million under budget - although I'm starting to get a funny feeling that JP's about to make a trade for a new starting SS and move Woodward into the bench role... anyone else get this feeling?

Looking at the Atlanta - St. Louis trade--

Coulnt we have swung a deal similiar to that for what atlanta gave up?

(this would be of course before aquiring so many relievers)

i really like king, as a lefthander who can pitch to anyone....plus adam wainwright would become one of our top pitching prospects...i guess jp wanted current production over future, but i wouldnt mind giving up cattalonatto, ford-griffin and another guy for the deal.

i dont understand why atlanta would trade all that for an oft injured .300 hitter with adequate defense and only 1 yr.

Looking at the Atlanta - St. Louis trade--

Coulnt we have swung a deal similiar to that for what atlanta gave up?

(this would be of course before aquiring so many relievers)

i really like king, as a lefthander who can pitch to anyone....plus adam wainwright would become one of our top pitching prospects...i guess jp wanted current production over future, but i wouldnt mind giving up cattalonatto, ford-griffin and another guy for the deal.

i dont understand why atlanta would trade all that for an oft injured .300 hitter with adequate defense and only 1 yr.

Mike Green,

The problem is that Hendrickson isn't very good. I don't see him getting much better, as a low k rate and his age indicate he will struggle to remain in the league. Josh Towers is younger and has a better K/W ratio. We've got guys in AAA that would have pushed Hendrickson aside by next year at the latest. What exactly was Hendrickson's value to the organisation in your opinion?

I would like to still have Hendrickson. If Towers fails, or a starter gets hurt, I think he has value in that we wouldn't need to rush, say, Jason Arnold. I don't have a problem with this deal though, I actually like it a lot. You have to give soemthing up to get something, and frankly Lurch isn't much (though I think he had more value to the '04 Jays than most seem to think).

Life in the AL East just gets tougher by the day ... according to Ken Rosenthal, the Orioles have signed Miguel Tejada to a six-year, $65 million contract.

http://economics.about.com
I would like to still have Hendrickson. If Towers fails, or a starter gets hurt, I think he has value in that we wouldn't need to rush, say, Jason Arnold.

The Jays will still have both Pete Walker and Bruce Chen they could use as starters. Plus I wouldn't be surprised if they signed another experienced guy as a minor league free agent.

I love this deal. Signing Chen made Hendrickson redundant as the "lefty who can't seem to put it all together".

Chen's career line is 251/324/463, whereas Hendrickson's is 298/338/468. Plus Chen is 3 years and 4 days younger.

Mike

Way to go, Mike (not that it was a tough assignment). I forgot about Chen (and to a lesser extent, Walker's ability to start). I now have zero difficulty with this trade, whereas before I was mildly concerned.

the Orioles have signed Miguel Tejada

Well, if the Orioles also add Vladimir Guerrero and a couple of starting pitchers, it might be time to get nervous. Sure, Tejada makes them better, but playing more than a third of their games against New York, Boston and Toronto, hard teams to outscore, they need a lot more help to become competitive. It might actually have been worse for the Jays' 2004 playoff chances, however remote they may be, if Miggy had ended up in Seattle or Anaheim.

Everyone knew they were going to spend, so this isn't a huge surprise, and while six years is a long time, they have committed to a very talented player. I'm hoping Javy Lopez is the only other big name Baltimore lands, because I don't envision him having a huge impact on the divisional standings.

Seeing as this is hijack central, the general populace has been discussing bullpen possibilities, and I’m too lazy to look up the answer, I’ll ask the friendly BB Bloggers:

What is the status of Bob File and Justin Miller? I was impressed by their cups of coffee in T.O. and am hoping to see them again.

Looking at Miggy's career numbers in the triple crown stats, and acknowledging his solid defense and MVP, the HOF seems very possible. If he can average 25 home runs until he's 35 (seems plausible with a few + years coming up) he'll be approaching 400 homers and possibly 1500 RBI with a .270+ average. Will the offensive exploits of A-Rod cheapen these numbers? A career like that from a SS ending a decade or two ago, I think, would land him in the HOF on the first ballot (especially if he reached the milestone 400th HR). Discuss.

Morty, I haven't heard a word about Miller's shoulder and am not holding my breath that he'll make a contribution anywhere in 2004. File's surgery was unusual (they removed part of his collarbone) and while he got back to AAA much sooner than anticipated, it remains to be seen how much of his former stuff he has left, and how durable he will be. I do expect him to start the year in Syracuse, where he'll be a phone call and a short limo ride away if help is needed and he's the best candidate.

Another rehabbing pitcher, far more exciting than File or Miller, is Francisco Rosario. After missing all of last year (Tommy John surgery) he'll be eased back into action, but if they decide his future is in the bullpen, he could move up the ladder swiftly.

The Orioles could invent a time machine and sign Babe Ruth circa 1920 and it wouldn't make me scared of them. Tejada or no Tejada, they're going to be a distant fourth unless they do a lot of smart things between now and April.

I'm very pleased with the Jays' moves this offseason, but I find it strange that so much emphasis has been put on acquiring established help in the 'pen when it is supposedly easy to find cheap arms who can work an inning at a time. I know the Jays tried this last year with godawful results, but I'm wondering if the problem was the way Tosca used the 'pen rather than the talent on hand. Is there a recognition by JP that his usage needs to change? Will we get more of the same this season? Thoughts?

http://economics.about.com
Hopefully I can get this formatting to work.

The pitching staff for the Jays looks quite a bit better than it did last year. I wasn't actually all that sure it would: I remember a lot of people were excited about Lidle, and I thought Sturtze was going to have a very good season.

If you look at the WARP3 stats for the Jays pitching staff at the start of 2003 and the WARP3 stats for the staff we can expect next year, there's really no contest. This doesn't even take into account that the Jays will probably carry a 12th guy for the pen.

Here's the WARP3 figures for the 3 years previous to 2003 for the Jays opening Day 2003 staff:

POSN	PLAYER	2000	2001	2002	TOTAL
-------	-------	----	----	----	-----
SP1	Doc	-1.9	3.5	9.7	11.3
SP2	Lidle	2.3	5.5	5.3	13.1
SP3	Sturtze	2.4	5.9	3	11.3
SP4	Lurch	0	0	1.6	1.6
SP5	Pwalker	-0.2	0.1	4.2	4.1
RP1	Creek	1.7	1.7	0.6	4
RP2	Escobar	4.1	4.7	4.3	13.1
RP3	Linton	0	0	0	0
RP4	Lopez	0	0	0	0
RP5	Politte	2.1	1.8	2	5.9
RP6	Tam	3.7	2.9	0.6	7.2
RP7	Tmiller	-0.4	0	0	-0.4
-------	-------	----	----	----	-----
TOTAL		13.8	26.1	31.3	71.2

And here's the stats for 2001-2003 of the Jays staff for next year:

POSN	PLAYER	2001	2002	2003	TOTAL
-------	-------	----	----	----	-----
SP1	Doc	3.5	9.7	10.3	23.5
SP2	Batista	4.9	3.6	5.2	13.7
SP3	Lilly	3.6	0.6	4.2	8.4
SP4	Hentgen	2.0	-0.2	4.3	6.1
SP5	Towers	3.6	-0.1	2.1	5.6
RP1	Kersh	0.0	0.2	2.3	2.5
RP2	Ligten	2.1	2.5	2.3	6.9
RP3	Lopez	0.0	0.0	2.8	2.8
RP4	Tmiller	0.0	0.0	1.3	1.3
RP5	Pwalker	0.1	4.2	1.2	5.5
RP6	Speier	2.4	1.9	2.1	6.4
-------	-------	----	----	----	-----
TOTAL		22.2	22.4	38.1	82.7

So the guys for the beginning of 2004 performed almost 7 games better the year before than the guys for the beginning of the 2003 season did.

Mike

Oh.. I didn't put the relievers in any coherent order, so you don't need to point that out. :)