I'm a little perplexed by some of the names bandied about by Boyd in the column. After being signed as a 6 year minor league FA, isn't Matos protected from the Rule 5? And I thought Ryan Houston and Derrick Nunley might be two of the least probable Jays' pitchers to a)get selected, and b)to find success in the majors immediately. Gassner, Nin, Bauer, Chacin, and Reimers (all having had some success in AA, at least) seem to be more likely targets. All in all though, I'd predict Godwin as the first Jay departee on Monday.

What Boyd is saying is that pitchers with one plus pitch might survive in a bullpen. Without that one plus pitch forget it. He thinks Nunley and Houston have that with their fastballs. Gassner, Nin, etc. don't have that one pitch.

Ah, the price of a deep farm system. You can't keep everybody forever. Compared to last year, when Lopez began spring training with a real shot to stick, there just isn't room on the Jays' 25-man roster. Maybe they will select a pitcher to audition in spring training, but unless they can trade to keep him in the minors, I'm pretty sure he will be returned.

The losses are also inevitable as the organization gets stronger. If Rich Thompson hadn't been dealt for John Wasdin in a gamble that didn't pay off, he would be exposed as well. The point Boyd makes about ex-Jay staffers now being highly placed in other organizations, including weak big-league clubs like Tampa and Milwaukee, makes it almost certain that some claims will be made.

I say the more, the merrier. I agree with Jordan that nobody on the BA list is irreplaceable, though it would be a shame to lose Matos before he throws a pitch. The Jays might get some of them back anyway, or maybe J.P. can swing deals to acquire new longshot prospects in exchange for letting other clubs keep the guys they draft.

After being signed as a 6 year minor league FA, isn't Matos protected from the Rule 5?

Minor league free agents are draftable. It happened with Chad Ogea a few years ago.

I can't see why Boyd would question the Jays for leaving Gracesqui exposed last year. Sure, he's a lefty who throws hard but, if he's never going to make it to the majors (at least not with the Jays), then what's the point of keeping him. From what I can surmise based on his stats, Gracesqui is a strikeout machine with minimal control (58IP, 44H, 75K, 43BB, 11WP) - similar to a Rick Ankiel. Relievers who allow as many baserunners as Gracesqui seldom have very much success. And given the fact that he's not the youngest prospect (currently 24), I really can't see why losing Gracesqui was even worth mentioning. The only thing that interested me about Gracesqui was that fact the he is a switch-hitter. Can't say I've seen too many switch hitting pitchers. Imagine all the match-up problems opposing NL managers will be faced with if Gracesqui ever makes his mark with the big team in Florida!

If Gracesqui was a starter it would be different but a 24 year old reliever who can't throw a pitch consistently over the plate is not worth a 40-man roster spot, at least to the Jays.

I believe the Jays already have this year's Aquilino Lopez. Compare these two players:

Aquilino Lopez 2002 - Tacoma AAA
109.1 IP, 89H, 27BB, 103K, 2.39 ERA

Josue Matos 2003 - San Antonio, AA
88.1 IP, 58H, 37BB, 104K, 2.24 ERA

Matos walked and struck out more hitters in less innings than Aquilino. He also did this a AA whereas Aquilino played in AAA. That stated, Matos may not go north with the team but if he can refine his control in Syracuse he can be as useful as Lopez. It would be a shame if the Jays lost Matos in the Rule 5 draft.

"From what I can surmise based on his stats, Gracesqui is a strikeout machine with minimal control (58IP, 44H, 75K, 43BB, 11WP) - similar to a Rick Ankiel."

Whoa there. Pre-2000 playoffs, Ankiel had good control. In fact, I've been looking and I haven't found anybody that's put up better minor league number for age than Ankiel did.

Whoa there. Pre-2000 playoffs, Ankiel had good control.

In case it wasn't clear, I was referring to Ankiel's control circa 2003.

I remember Gracesqui as a St. Catherines Stomper in 1997 and 1998. He was skinny, he threw hard, he threw wild, and I remember him always in the line at the concession buying beaver tails (sometimes 15 minutes before game time). He did not seem to be the most disciplined player in the bunch.

I had the pleasure of meeting Dave Stewart in Buffalo when he was the Assistant General Manager. I remember asking him about Gracesqui and Stewart was quite high on him--even though he began the season (1999) in Medicine Hat. It looks like Gracesqui is living up to the expectations that Stewart had for him...good for Franklyn! He and Reed Johnson are the last 1998 St. Catherines Stompers standing, I think.

I wonder if any Stomper ticket holder would have predicted that Johnson and Gracesqui would be their prospects...

Did Aquilino turn out to be the best Rule 5 player last year? Was he the only one who worked out????

Just a tad of history:

Prior to 1985 the cost of drafting a Rule 5 was $25,000. However, it was raised to $50,000 after the Jays sucessfully drafted and kept both Manny Lee and Lou Thornton in the December 1984 draft. Remember, during that period, teams were using 24-man rosters.

In 2003, seven pitchers made the cut, and most of them were pitching in meaningful situations by season's end. Blue Jays righthander Aquilino Lopez and Tigers righty Chris Spurling earned stints as their team's closer, while righthander D.J. Carrasco led the Royals pen with 80 innings pitched. Relievers with plus pitches are likely to be the focus of the Rule 5 draft again in 2004. Much of Lopez' and Carrasco's success can be attributed to their above-average sliders.

That is part of the BA article

Another player it happened to was Adrian Brown, who was taken by Boston last year, after being signed by another team as a minor league free agent, I think Pittsburgh. At least, I think Brown was a minor league free agent, even though he was still with Pittsburgh. He resigned there, or something and than Boston selected him in the draft.

Gracesqui was available in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 draft, not the major league phase. Not protecting him meant, essentially, that the Jays viewed up to 78 players (up to 40 protected in major league phase, 38 in AAA phase) as being more worth protecting than him. I, for one, was surprised that Toronto made him available and think it was a miscalculation.

I don't think that any one Jay has more than a 50/50 chance of being selected but, as an aggregate, yeah, I think Toronto will lose somebody.

Godwin is the most likely to go, but he's less likely to now than when he was quicker and less bulky.

I don't think Matos will be selected, as it didn't seem like there was a tremendous amount of interest in him as a mlfa. I do think comparisons between he and Aquilino are apt, though Lopez, IMO, had more going for him than Matos does. Luis Ayala and Adrian Brown were two other mlfa's selected in the Rule 5, both last year.

The other guys are more in the "youneverknow" class...