You know you're getting old when players whose rookie seasons you followed show up on the Hall of Fame ballot. This year, as you may have heard, Toronto World Series heroes Joe Carter and Paul Molitor are eligible for Cooperstown, though Carter's chances are very slight and Molitor, while a favourite for first-ballot admission, will almost certainly enter the Hall as a Twin or a Brewer. Chime in with your thoughts on whether these two should or will become Hall of Famers, and on whether former Jays such as Roberto Alomar, Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez belong in the Hall as well.
Alomar, McGriff, and Fernandez--tough choices all!
The last couple seasons have tarnished Alomar's all but guaranteed HOF status. A comeback would etch it back in stone, or at least, wood!
McGriff: Very Very consistent over the years with those steady HOF numbers. I would say he is deserving. His overall quietness may result in him being overlooked
Tony Fernandez: In my eyes, he was the best defensive shortstop I have even seen. However, his prime as a shortstop was relatively short. In fact, he would not play a defensive position at all during his last go-around as a Jay.
Fernandez changed his main strengths as the years rolled by: (Gold Glove SS, Good 3B, Solid 2B, and then pinch-hitter supreme). I think Tony deserves to be in the hall, but the uniqueness and the quirks in his career may hurt him.
These are my opinions, based on being a Jays fan since 1977. Sometimes, mere numbers do not tell the story.
The last couple seasons have tarnished Alomar's all but guaranteed HOF status. A comeback would etch it back in stone, or at least, wood!
McGriff: Very Very consistent over the years with those steady HOF numbers. I would say he is deserving. His overall quietness may result in him being overlooked
Tony Fernandez: In my eyes, he was the best defensive shortstop I have even seen. However, his prime as a shortstop was relatively short. In fact, he would not play a defensive position at all during his last go-around as a Jay.
Fernandez changed his main strengths as the years rolled by: (Gold Glove SS, Good 3B, Solid 2B, and then pinch-hitter supreme). I think Tony deserves to be in the hall, but the uniqueness and the quirks in his career may hurt him.
These are my opinions, based on being a Jays fan since 1977. Sometimes, mere numbers do not tell the story.
Carter will get more than he deserves, 'cause he has lot of yummy RBIs. Mmmm... shiny...
Don't get me wrong, I loved watching him, but there is no universe in which he's a HoFer.
Alomar should be a sure thing, especially compared to other 2B. He was the dominant 2B of his era, and probably (without checking) among the top 10 of all time. There were a few years in the early 90s where people made serious arguments that he was the best player in the league (he wasn't), which only a few other 2B have ever even come close to.
McGriff seems like the most interesting case. The career numbers are there: 500HR, 2500 Hits, 134 career OPS+. But he never won an MVP, rarely led the league in anything, and couldn't sell jeans. There are a few guys coming along soon like this - Palmero is the most obvious comparable - and I think we're going to start seeing HoF voters re-defining what a HoF career looks like in the high-offence era, and I think McGriff, Palmero, Edgar Martinez, Juan Gonzalez, and a few others are going to get left out.
It may take more like 550 or even 600HR for Thomas, Griffey, Rodriguez, et. al. Or voters might just look for overall dominance - leading the league in key categories, winning MVPs, etc.
Not saying right or wrong (tentatively I'll go with "right"), but I think it's what's likely to happen.
Don't get me wrong, I loved watching him, but there is no universe in which he's a HoFer.
Alomar should be a sure thing, especially compared to other 2B. He was the dominant 2B of his era, and probably (without checking) among the top 10 of all time. There were a few years in the early 90s where people made serious arguments that he was the best player in the league (he wasn't), which only a few other 2B have ever even come close to.
McGriff seems like the most interesting case. The career numbers are there: 500HR, 2500 Hits, 134 career OPS+. But he never won an MVP, rarely led the league in anything, and couldn't sell jeans. There are a few guys coming along soon like this - Palmero is the most obvious comparable - and I think we're going to start seeing HoF voters re-defining what a HoF career looks like in the high-offence era, and I think McGriff, Palmero, Edgar Martinez, Juan Gonzalez, and a few others are going to get left out.
It may take more like 550 or even 600HR for Thomas, Griffey, Rodriguez, et. al. Or voters might just look for overall dominance - leading the league in key categories, winning MVPs, etc.
Not saying right or wrong (tentatively I'll go with "right"), but I think it's what's likely to happen.
Isn't Steib on the ballot as well?
I would think that Molitor is a lock to make it, although I haven’t looked that closely so maybe I’m mistaken.
I used to think Joe Carter had a pretty good shot at the Hall of Fame. Then in about 1999 I discovered Rob Neyer on ESPN, and soon thereafter discovered Baseball Primer, Baseball Prospectus, and sites like these and soon learned that Joe Carter was not quite the player I thought he was when he had all those 100+ RBI seasons.
I would think that Molitor is a lock to make it, although I haven’t looked that closely so maybe I’m mistaken.
I used to think Joe Carter had a pretty good shot at the Hall of Fame. Then in about 1999 I discovered Rob Neyer on ESPN, and soon thereafter discovered Baseball Primer, Baseball Prospectus, and sites like these and soon learned that Joe Carter was not quite the player I thought he was when he had all those 100+ RBI seasons.
Joe Carter's career in my opinion falls short of HOF standards. But, he might get in because of the impact of that 93 homer.
The list of comparable players to him on baseballreference.com is a very good list- Dale Murphy, Andres Gallaraga, Don Baylor, Jim Rice and Orlando Cepeda. These players are essentially on the fringes of the HOF. With the current understanding of the importance of getting on base (Carter's career OBP was .306), you'd have to place Carter behind each of them.
The list of comparable players to him on baseballreference.com is a very good list- Dale Murphy, Andres Gallaraga, Don Baylor, Jim Rice and Orlando Cepeda. These players are essentially on the fringes of the HOF. With the current understanding of the importance of getting on base (Carter's career OBP was .306), you'd have to place Carter behind each of them.
But he never won an MVP, rarely led the league in anything, and couldn't sell jeans
But he sure can sell instructional baseball videos!
But he sure can sell instructional baseball videos!
Complete list of eligible candidates here. Scroll down for full list.
Carter's impact on the Jays is undeniable - you need look no further than Game 6 in 1993 for proof of that. Hall of Fame voters will take that into consideration when voting. Remember also that the voters are not necessarily the cognoscenti, so Carter's lifetime .303 OBP isn't likely to hamstring him as much as it might seem.
That being said, Joe is not likely going to Cooperstown any time soon. The bat and/or ball which ended Game 6 in such an unforgettable fashion are already in the hallowed Hall, and he just wasn't the "among the greatest of his time"-type player that get into the Hall.
That being said, Joe is not likely going to Cooperstown any time soon. The bat and/or ball which ended Game 6 in such an unforgettable fashion are already in the hallowed Hall, and he just wasn't the "among the greatest of his time"-type player that get into the Hall.
I hope that Stieb gets at least enough support to stay on the ballot for another year. I don't think he should be in the Hall, but he was the best pitcher of the 80's (Morris be damned!), and I hope he gets some support.
There are at least 3,319 reasons why Molitor should get in, but I'm not certain he will on the first try, because some writers may hold the DH thing against him and others will "punish" him for admitting drug use once upon a time.
Stieb will hang around on the ballot for a long time, but he'll never make it. It's not easy to make a case for Dave ahead of Jack Morris, who also seems doomed to stay on the fringes. And of course, every year at this time, people debate the credentials of Bert Blyleven and even Tommy John, whose "fame" is partly due to a surgical procedure.
Sooner or later, relievers may get more respect. I hope Eckersley doesn't immediately vault ahead of Bruce Sutter and Rich Gossage, who are equally deserving but so far, denied election.
Among the best eligible hitters is Dave Parker, a perennial borderline candidate, along with Jim Rice and Andre Dawson. To anyone who thinks Joe Carter belongs with those guys, I suggest you read (or re-read) Craig's excellent Primer article on Parker from last winter.
If I had a vote, there's no way I'd name ten on this ballot. After the two automatics -- Molitor and Ryne Sandberg -- it's very tough. Keith Hernandez and Don Mattingly were personal favourites, but I can hardly make a case for them to be in the Hall without opening the doors to McGriff, so I have to pass. With some uncertainty, Gossage, Trammell and Blyleven would be my other choices.
Stieb will hang around on the ballot for a long time, but he'll never make it. It's not easy to make a case for Dave ahead of Jack Morris, who also seems doomed to stay on the fringes. And of course, every year at this time, people debate the credentials of Bert Blyleven and even Tommy John, whose "fame" is partly due to a surgical procedure.
Sooner or later, relievers may get more respect. I hope Eckersley doesn't immediately vault ahead of Bruce Sutter and Rich Gossage, who are equally deserving but so far, denied election.
Among the best eligible hitters is Dave Parker, a perennial borderline candidate, along with Jim Rice and Andre Dawson. To anyone who thinks Joe Carter belongs with those guys, I suggest you read (or re-read) Craig's excellent Primer article on Parker from last winter.
If I had a vote, there's no way I'd name ten on this ballot. After the two automatics -- Molitor and Ryne Sandberg -- it's very tough. Keith Hernandez and Don Mattingly were personal favourites, but I can hardly make a case for them to be in the Hall without opening the doors to McGriff, so I have to pass. With some uncertainty, Gossage, Trammell and Blyleven would be my other choices.
Jim Rice is nearly as overrated as Joe Carter. During most of his career, Rice played in the best hitters' park in the majors, he didn't walk and he grounded into a ton of DPs.
There was a long long discussion on Primer eons ago about Roy White being better than Rice, pro and con.
There was a long long discussion on Primer eons ago about Roy White being better than Rice, pro and con.
Keith Hernandez and Don Mattingly were personal favourites, but I can hardly make a case for them to be in the Hall without opening the doors to McGriff, so I have to pass
You don't think McGriff should be in? I think he's way ahead of Hernandez and Mattingly. What about Palmeiro?
Gleeman had an article back when Palmeiro hit his 500th HR and the 2 were very similar.
You don't think McGriff should be in? I think he's way ahead of Hernandez and Mattingly. What about Palmeiro?
Gleeman had an article back when Palmeiro hit his 500th HR and the 2 were very similar.
But he sure can sell instructional baseball videos!
Hilarious, Pistol.
Bauxites in Canada (where ESPN isn't available) were denied the joy of watching Fred McGriff point at the camera and heartily endorse Tom Emanski's Defensive Drills video, in what was certainly the lowest-budget commercial featuring a professional athlete since Ken Baumgartner's Mr. Sub commercial or Kevin Lowe's "Stick Sac."
Even funnier than the commercial itself is Kenny Mayne's deadpan references to the ad whenever a player boots a ball during SportsCenter highlights: "He should have watched Tom Emanski's Defensive Drills...It's endorsed by Fred McGriff."
Hilarious, Pistol.
Bauxites in Canada (where ESPN isn't available) were denied the joy of watching Fred McGriff point at the camera and heartily endorse Tom Emanski's Defensive Drills video, in what was certainly the lowest-budget commercial featuring a professional athlete since Ken Baumgartner's Mr. Sub commercial or Kevin Lowe's "Stick Sac."
Even funnier than the commercial itself is Kenny Mayne's deadpan references to the ad whenever a player boots a ball during SportsCenter highlights: "He should have watched Tom Emanski's Defensive Drills...It's endorsed by Fred McGriff."
If Tony Fernandez gets into the HOF ahead of Alan Trammell, I will personally boycott Cooperstown forever. (I've only been there twice, true, but surely they will feel the financial impact. I'm big in the gift shop.)
If Dave Stieb gets into the HOF ahead of Jack Morris ... see above.
Note: I think Morris is a fringe candidate and Trammell is a lower-half of the Hall guy, ahead of Morris but not by much. But both are more deserving than Tony Shortstop and Mr. Tomorrow I'll Be Perfect.
If Dave Stieb gets into the HOF ahead of Jack Morris ... see above.
Note: I think Morris is a fringe candidate and Trammell is a lower-half of the Hall guy, ahead of Morris but not by much. But both are more deserving than Tony Shortstop and Mr. Tomorrow I'll Be Perfect.
Without actually having done any analysis...
Last year, my "ballot" was :
Blyleven
Carter
Dawson
Gossage
John
Kaat
Murray
Parker
Sandberg
Trammell
I "voted" for Kaat and John with some misgivings, but knowing that in my view it's better to vote for a guy if you're unsure, than not vote for him. I usually get to 10; sometimes I only have 9, I almost had 8 last year.
Carter, Kaat and Murray fell off the ballot... Kaat ran out of time, and Carter and Murray were elected.
Of the holdovers, I do think Tommy John deserves induction, I'm more sure this year. So my holdover list is seven, and I haven't changed my mind on any of them. Blyleven, Dawson, Gossage, John, Parker, Sandberg, and Trammell. I think Gossage is actually at the bottom of that list, but I still think he should go in.
The other holdover name who deserves more consideration from me is Jim Rice. It's hard to vote for Parker and Dawson, but not Rice. I thought it was justified last year; I need to question that again. None of the other holdover candidates (Concepcion, Garvey, Hernandez,
Mattingly, Morris, Murphy, Smith, Sutter, Valenzuela) are quite at that level, except Hernandez. Many are close. For now, Hernandez and Rice stay out, they may go in.
Out of the new guys, Molitor is a sure-thing. I don't know how Molitor is a "sure thing" when Sandberg and Trammell are not. 'Tis not for us to wonder why, I suppose.
That leaves Eckersley, Carter, Key, Fielder, and Stieb as the serious candidates. *Four* former Blue Jays, and Eck.
Eck : _two_ terrific five-year peaks. Third all-time in saves, AND 197 wins. He's right in for me.
Carter : sits behind Rice and probably Murphy. Overall, his candidacy is most similar to Garvey's, but Joe wasn't half the player Garvey was. No way.
Key : a fine pitcher whose career was too short, and without a sustained high peak. He wouldn't be the worst pitcher in the Hall, not by a *long* shot. Of the pitchers I didn't pick, I think Key and the next fellow are the best on the list.
Stieb : Jimmy Key, righthanded, but with an actual sustained high peak, 1980-85. Stieb is a marginally better candidate but his short career burns him. I can't vote for him (or Key), not yet, but I will probably be persuaded when the 70s pitchers drop off the list.
Fielder : A good player, nothing more. A very short career and a peak that's good, but not overwhelming. Stands behind Hernandez, Mattingly, and Garvey at first.
So my ballot (for now) is:
Blyleven
Dawson
Eckersley
Gossage
John
Molitor
Parker
Sandberg
Trammell
With more thought needed on Rice, Hernandez, Key, and Stieb. I'm actually starting to lean towards Hernandez, the more I look at him! The seven times in the top 3 in OBP, and defensive brilliance, looks better and better the more I come to understand the numbers.
Last year, my "ballot" was :
Blyleven
Carter
Dawson
Gossage
John
Kaat
Murray
Parker
Sandberg
Trammell
I "voted" for Kaat and John with some misgivings, but knowing that in my view it's better to vote for a guy if you're unsure, than not vote for him. I usually get to 10; sometimes I only have 9, I almost had 8 last year.
Carter, Kaat and Murray fell off the ballot... Kaat ran out of time, and Carter and Murray were elected.
Of the holdovers, I do think Tommy John deserves induction, I'm more sure this year. So my holdover list is seven, and I haven't changed my mind on any of them. Blyleven, Dawson, Gossage, John, Parker, Sandberg, and Trammell. I think Gossage is actually at the bottom of that list, but I still think he should go in.
The other holdover name who deserves more consideration from me is Jim Rice. It's hard to vote for Parker and Dawson, but not Rice. I thought it was justified last year; I need to question that again. None of the other holdover candidates (Concepcion, Garvey, Hernandez,
Mattingly, Morris, Murphy, Smith, Sutter, Valenzuela) are quite at that level, except Hernandez. Many are close. For now, Hernandez and Rice stay out, they may go in.
Out of the new guys, Molitor is a sure-thing. I don't know how Molitor is a "sure thing" when Sandberg and Trammell are not. 'Tis not for us to wonder why, I suppose.
That leaves Eckersley, Carter, Key, Fielder, and Stieb as the serious candidates. *Four* former Blue Jays, and Eck.
Eck : _two_ terrific five-year peaks. Third all-time in saves, AND 197 wins. He's right in for me.
Carter : sits behind Rice and probably Murphy. Overall, his candidacy is most similar to Garvey's, but Joe wasn't half the player Garvey was. No way.
Key : a fine pitcher whose career was too short, and without a sustained high peak. He wouldn't be the worst pitcher in the Hall, not by a *long* shot. Of the pitchers I didn't pick, I think Key and the next fellow are the best on the list.
Stieb : Jimmy Key, righthanded, but with an actual sustained high peak, 1980-85. Stieb is a marginally better candidate but his short career burns him. I can't vote for him (or Key), not yet, but I will probably be persuaded when the 70s pitchers drop off the list.
Fielder : A good player, nothing more. A very short career and a peak that's good, but not overwhelming. Stands behind Hernandez, Mattingly, and Garvey at first.
So my ballot (for now) is:
Blyleven
Dawson
Eckersley
Gossage
John
Molitor
Parker
Sandberg
Trammell
With more thought needed on Rice, Hernandez, Key, and Stieb. I'm actually starting to lean towards Hernandez, the more I look at him! The seven times in the top 3 in OBP, and defensive brilliance, looks better and better the more I come to understand the numbers.
Mick, all I can say is that Mr. Average Pitcher (Jack Morris) doesn't belong in the Hall. Dave Stieb, at least, was a legitimately outstanding pitcher for a while.
Craig, you have that backwards.
Of the 10 "Most Similar" players to Morris, six (*) are already in the HOF and another (Glavine) will get real consideration.
Dennis Martinez (903)
Bob Gibson (885) *
Tom Glavine (881)
Luis Tiant (873)
Red Ruffing (861) *
Chuck Finley (859)
Amos Rusie (859) *
Burleigh Grimes (855) *
Bob Feller (855) *
Jim Bunning (854) *
Of the 10 "Most Similar" players to Stieb, well, names like Viola, Hershiser, Sutcliffe and Valenzuela all had bright spots (and won Cy Young Awards, which Stieb did not, though that matters little) but I'd take the 10 guys similar to Morris against the 10 below in just about any situation.
Virgil Trucks (953)
Ken Holtzman (947)
Bob Buhl (943)
Rick Sutcliffe (938)
Tommy Bridges (932)
Kevin Appier (932)
Fernando Valenzuela (929)
Dave Stewart (928)
Frank Viola (925)
Orel Hershiser (917)
Of the 10 "Most Similar" players to Morris, six (*) are already in the HOF and another (Glavine) will get real consideration.
Dennis Martinez (903)
Bob Gibson (885) *
Tom Glavine (881)
Luis Tiant (873)
Red Ruffing (861) *
Chuck Finley (859)
Amos Rusie (859) *
Burleigh Grimes (855) *
Bob Feller (855) *
Jim Bunning (854) *
Of the 10 "Most Similar" players to Stieb, well, names like Viola, Hershiser, Sutcliffe and Valenzuela all had bright spots (and won Cy Young Awards, which Stieb did not, though that matters little) but I'd take the 10 guys similar to Morris against the 10 below in just about any situation.
Virgil Trucks (953)
Ken Holtzman (947)
Bob Buhl (943)
Rick Sutcliffe (938)
Tommy Bridges (932)
Kevin Appier (932)
Fernando Valenzuela (929)
Dave Stewart (928)
Frank Viola (925)
Orel Hershiser (917)
Questions about Molitor? He played in a tough hitters park most of his career and hit over .300 with good strike zone judgment and moderate power. His career was very long and tremendously productive. Bill James had him as one of the top 5 leadoff hitters of all time (that might be a little generous), and that was before his great 93-94 seasons.
Sandberg has a lot of backers, but personally if I had to pick a second baseman of the 80s, it would be Whitaker. There were two key factors: the park (Wrigley Field was almost as favorable in the 80s as Coors was last year, whereas Tiger Stadium was essentially neutral over the decade) and Whitaker's superior ability to get on base. Sandberg did have more pop, and was a better defensive second baseman, but not by a wide margin in my view. Whitaker had the longer career.
Frankly, I think both should go in. As middle infielders go, I think both Sandberg and Whitaker are probably among the top 25-30 of all time and that should be good enough.
Sandberg has a lot of backers, but personally if I had to pick a second baseman of the 80s, it would be Whitaker. There were two key factors: the park (Wrigley Field was almost as favorable in the 80s as Coors was last year, whereas Tiger Stadium was essentially neutral over the decade) and Whitaker's superior ability to get on base. Sandberg did have more pop, and was a better defensive second baseman, but not by a wide margin in my view. Whitaker had the longer career.
Frankly, I think both should go in. As middle infielders go, I think both Sandberg and Whitaker are probably among the top 25-30 of all time and that should be good enough.
You don't think McGriff should be in?
This is one of my quirks, Pistol. I'm not saying I'm right, or that more generous souls like Craig are wrong, but I've always favoured leaving the borderline guys out of Cooperstown. It's too bad a few undeserving ones are already enshrined, because it becomes more difficult to exclude similar players.
In my imaginary Hall of the Very, Very Good, the doors are open much wider. There's room for Parker, Dawson, McGriff, Palmeiro, Hernandez, Mattingly, several starters, a few relievers and lots of other personal favourites, like Tony Fernandez and Dave Stieb. I simply can't justify electing one or two of them to the HoF without including everyone.
This is one of my quirks, Pistol. I'm not saying I'm right, or that more generous souls like Craig are wrong, but I've always favoured leaving the borderline guys out of Cooperstown. It's too bad a few undeserving ones are already enshrined, because it becomes more difficult to exclude similar players.
In my imaginary Hall of the Very, Very Good, the doors are open much wider. There's room for Parker, Dawson, McGriff, Palmeiro, Hernandez, Mattingly, several starters, a few relievers and lots of other personal favourites, like Tony Fernandez and Dave Stieb. I simply can't justify electing one or two of them to the HoF without including everyone.
Backwards? Morris was an average pitcher. Stieb was legitimately outstanding for a while. There is absolutely no way Morris could ever have been described as "legitimately outstanding"... he was never one of the five best pitchers in his league, for example.
Mick, just because a guy has a long career doesn't make him a great pitcher. Morris pitched in pitcher's parks for teams with great offenses, and it doesn't make him any better than he was. Going 20-11 doesn't impress me much; an ERA a run better-than-league does.
In 17 seasons with 100+ IP, Morris did that once. Dave Stieb did it six times. Key did it five times.
Remember, Similarity Scores take career totals into account, but don't account at all for quality.
I think Morris is close to Key and Stieb; Key's career was only 2/3 as long as Morris, but Morris only brought about 2/3 the value per season of Key. Stieb is similar, but slightly better and a slightly longer career than JK.
Mick, just because a guy has a long career doesn't make him a great pitcher. Morris pitched in pitcher's parks for teams with great offenses, and it doesn't make him any better than he was. Going 20-11 doesn't impress me much; an ERA a run better-than-league does.
In 17 seasons with 100+ IP, Morris did that once. Dave Stieb did it six times. Key did it five times.
Remember, Similarity Scores take career totals into account, but don't account at all for quality.
I think Morris is close to Key and Stieb; Key's career was only 2/3 as long as Morris, but Morris only brought about 2/3 the value per season of Key. Stieb is similar, but slightly better and a slightly longer career than JK.
I absolutely think Stieb deserves serious consideration for the Hall. He's not going to get in, because he didn't get the wins or win a Cy Young (he should have one at least one if not a couple more), but he was definitely one of the two or three best pitchers of the 80's.
This is one of my quirks, Pistol. I'm not saying I'm right, or that more generous souls like Craig are wrong, but I've always favoured leaving the borderline guys out of Cooperstown.
That was my perception until I read Gleeman's article on it, and I was surprised at just how good McGriff was. His best HR years (relative to the league) were prior to the juiced ball era (1994-present) so it doesn't look quite as impressive.
That was my perception until I read Gleeman's article on it, and I was surprised at just how good McGriff was. His best HR years (relative to the league) were prior to the juiced ball era (1994-present) so it doesn't look quite as impressive.
I'd love to see Jimmy Key eventually get into the HOF but I'm not gonna hold my breath. Jimmy was Mr. Consistent throughout his career. He was runner up for CY twice I believe ('87 & '94) losing to Clemens & Cone respectively. I'm probably the biggest Key fan alive, but I know that he has a very slim chance of making it. But I will say this...Jimmy Key was the glue that held together every single rotation he's been in.
*Little bit of history*
1992 World Series Game 6:
Jimmy Key was set to face Otis Nixon in the bottom of the 11th inning when he called out Cito Gaston from the dugout. Key suggested that he bring in Timlin to face Otis because Otis was a slap hitter, and had had success against Jimmy, not to mention the defensive improvement of Timlin (righty) versus Key (lefty) against a drag bunt from Otis up the 1st base line. And we all know what happened next. The rest is history...by the way, Key won two games in the '92 World Series...and I will never forget game #4 when he tipped his cap for the 1st and last time to the Blue Jay faithful.
*Little bit of history*
1992 World Series Game 6:
Jimmy Key was set to face Otis Nixon in the bottom of the 11th inning when he called out Cito Gaston from the dugout. Key suggested that he bring in Timlin to face Otis because Otis was a slap hitter, and had had success against Jimmy, not to mention the defensive improvement of Timlin (righty) versus Key (lefty) against a drag bunt from Otis up the 1st base line. And we all know what happened next. The rest is history...by the way, Key won two games in the '92 World Series...and I will never forget game #4 when he tipped his cap for the 1st and last time to the Blue Jay faithful.
http://www.aarongleeman.com/2003_05_11_baseballblog_archive.html#94310822
Here's the Gleeman article on McGriff/Palmeiro I refered to earlier:
http://www.aarongleeman.com/2003_05_11_baseballblog_archive.html#94310822
Here's the Gleeman article on McGriff/Palmeiro I refered to earlier:
http://www.aarongleeman.com/2003_05_11_baseballblog_archive.html#94310822
Lee, loved the bit of history. I was watching, but didn't notice that Key made the indication to the dugout. But, it fits. He was a great and smart pitcher almost from day one until he left the league.
Where's the love for Lou Whitaker, I ask? He may have dropped off the ballot last year--inexplicably--but if you look at the second base position, he ranks easily with Sandberg in the top ten at that position all-time. He's just as much a HoF shoo-in as Sandberg and Trammell, in my opinion.
Regarding Morris, Stieb, and Key:
The BP player cards give Morris the lead in pitching runs above replacement:
Morris, 916
Stieb, 823
Key, 817
and Key the lead in pitching runs above average:
Key, 195
Stieb, 176
Morris, 27
If you take away Morris's last two seasons (1993 and 1994), he gains 43 PRAA, bumping him up to 70. Stieb had more PRAA than that in the first four and a half seasons of his career.
I don't think that Morris's marginal edge in value above replacement level (assuming that the BP definition of replacement level is accurate) comes close to overcoming the fact that he was never really an outstanding pitcher. No number of years of roughly league-average pitching should by itself get someone into the Hall of Fame. And yes, I know that Morris's case isn't quite that simple, but it's not especially far off.
Stieb, to me, was clearly on a Hall of Fame career path before his 1991 injury. His peak value meets HoF standards but his career value, IMHO, falls a little short. Same with Key.
The BP player cards give Morris the lead in pitching runs above replacement:
Morris, 916
Stieb, 823
Key, 817
and Key the lead in pitching runs above average:
Key, 195
Stieb, 176
Morris, 27
If you take away Morris's last two seasons (1993 and 1994), he gains 43 PRAA, bumping him up to 70. Stieb had more PRAA than that in the first four and a half seasons of his career.
I don't think that Morris's marginal edge in value above replacement level (assuming that the BP definition of replacement level is accurate) comes close to overcoming the fact that he was never really an outstanding pitcher. No number of years of roughly league-average pitching should by itself get someone into the Hall of Fame. And yes, I know that Morris's case isn't quite that simple, but it's not especially far off.
Stieb, to me, was clearly on a Hall of Fame career path before his 1991 injury. His peak value meets HoF standards but his career value, IMHO, falls a little short. Same with Key.
No number of years of roughly league-average pitching should by itself get someone into the Hall of Fame.
Longevity is itself rare. I've never understood why people don't think this should play a role in evaluating a player's career. It's why Kaat and John have always been on my "ballot" and why Sutton and Niekro are in the Hall.
And I know this argument was made by a different person earlier, but certainly if you're going to give any consideration to Carter's World Series-winning homer, equal if not greater consideration goes to Morris' 10-inning shutout in '91 ... and could there be a Toronto bias against Morris because (A) he won 18 games for Detroit in 1987 and (B) of his career 7-4 post-season win/loss mark, he was 0-3 with the Blue Jays?
Longevity is itself rare. I've never understood why people don't think this should play a role in evaluating a player's career. It's why Kaat and John have always been on my "ballot" and why Sutton and Niekro are in the Hall.
And I know this argument was made by a different person earlier, but certainly if you're going to give any consideration to Carter's World Series-winning homer, equal if not greater consideration goes to Morris' 10-inning shutout in '91 ... and could there be a Toronto bias against Morris because (A) he won 18 games for Detroit in 1987 and (B) of his career 7-4 post-season win/loss mark, he was 0-3 with the Blue Jays?
John neatly encapsulates the case for and against Jack Morris. I tend to favor the Hall candidacies of two different groups of players:
(1) players who were awesome or unstoppable for a period of several years (I like a five-year peak, but three or four excellent years interspersed with a few very good ones get my attention)
(2) players who were very good for a very long time.
Ideally, I like both. I don't have to have both. And players who fit criteria #1, I really only like them if they were also good players for a much longer period but it's a rare five-year superstar who isn't at least a good player for another five years. (Like Dave Parker... he was only a superstar for five years, but he was a good player for the next decade after)
Morris doesn't fit either. He was quite good for a few short bursts (most notably 85-87) though not awesome. And he wasn't very good for a long time... he was good, but not very good.
To put Morris in perspective for me, he had Dave Parker's career if you took off the three-year period (77-79) when Parker was the best player in baseball. He had Bert Blyleven's career if you take out the five-year run from 1973-77 when Blyleven was putting up superstar numbers. He had Keith Hernandez's career if you took away every single one of Hernandez's 162 home runs.
To put it another way, Tommy John is right on the cusp of the Hall of Fame for me, but John was 15% better than Morris was and pitched 1,000 innings more than Morris did.
(1) players who were awesome or unstoppable for a period of several years (I like a five-year peak, but three or four excellent years interspersed with a few very good ones get my attention)
(2) players who were very good for a very long time.
Ideally, I like both. I don't have to have both. And players who fit criteria #1, I really only like them if they were also good players for a much longer period but it's a rare five-year superstar who isn't at least a good player for another five years. (Like Dave Parker... he was only a superstar for five years, but he was a good player for the next decade after)
Morris doesn't fit either. He was quite good for a few short bursts (most notably 85-87) though not awesome. And he wasn't very good for a long time... he was good, but not very good.
To put Morris in perspective for me, he had Dave Parker's career if you took off the three-year period (77-79) when Parker was the best player in baseball. He had Bert Blyleven's career if you take out the five-year run from 1973-77 when Blyleven was putting up superstar numbers. He had Keith Hernandez's career if you took away every single one of Hernandez's 162 home runs.
To put it another way, Tommy John is right on the cusp of the Hall of Fame for me, but John was 15% better than Morris was and pitched 1,000 innings more than Morris did.
could there be a Toronto bias against Morris
I don't think so. It's certainly possible! But if there is, I'm not conscious of it.
The fact that Alan Trammell killed the Jays all year in '87 doesn't prevent me from voting for him and thinking it ridiculous he didn't get in as soon as he was eligible.
equal if not greater consideration goes to Morris' 10-inning shutout in '91
One of the greatest postseason games ever pitched, up there with Larsen's game, Seattle Bill James's two-hit 1-0 win against the A's for the Miracle Braves, and a few others.
It doesn't change the fact that Morris wasn't a great postseason pitcher... just like he wasn't a great regular season pitcher.
I don't think so. It's certainly possible! But if there is, I'm not conscious of it.
The fact that Alan Trammell killed the Jays all year in '87 doesn't prevent me from voting for him and thinking it ridiculous he didn't get in as soon as he was eligible.
equal if not greater consideration goes to Morris' 10-inning shutout in '91
One of the greatest postseason games ever pitched, up there with Larsen's game, Seattle Bill James's two-hit 1-0 win against the A's for the Miracle Braves, and a few others.
It doesn't change the fact that Morris wasn't a great postseason pitcher... just like he wasn't a great regular season pitcher.
players who fit criteria #1
criterion
Wow, do I feel like a loser for posting this.
criterion
Wow, do I feel like a loser for posting this.
Ooh, I'm on a roll...
OTHER GREAT WS PITCHING PERFORMANCES
Dave McNally's 1-0 shutout against Drysdale to clinch the '66 World Series. Or Moe Drabowsky striking out 11 in 7 shutout innings of relief in Game 1 of that Series.
Bob Gibson's 17-strikeout shutout against the Tigers and Denny McLain in '68. (Heck, almost any Bob Gibson WS performance)
Orval Overall's three-hit shutout against the Ty Cobb Tigers ito clinch the '08 Series (he struck out 10, a ton for those days). Three Finger Brown had a four-hit shutout the game before!
And a totally forgotten gem... Claude Passeau's one-hitter against the Tigers in '45.
OTHER GREAT WS PITCHING PERFORMANCES
Dave McNally's 1-0 shutout against Drysdale to clinch the '66 World Series. Or Moe Drabowsky striking out 11 in 7 shutout innings of relief in Game 1 of that Series.
Bob Gibson's 17-strikeout shutout against the Tigers and Denny McLain in '68. (Heck, almost any Bob Gibson WS performance)
Orval Overall's three-hit shutout against the Ty Cobb Tigers ito clinch the '08 Series (he struck out 10, a ton for those days). Three Finger Brown had a four-hit shutout the game before!
And a totally forgotten gem... Claude Passeau's one-hitter against the Tigers in '45.
Oooh, yeah, I want to slam Morris some more.
Charlie Leibrandt went 1-7 in his postseason career, and still had a better postseason ERA than Jack Morris.
Charlie Leibrandt went 1-7 in his postseason career, and still had a better postseason ERA than Jack Morris.
Just in case ...
The above comment was slathered in irony.
The above comment was slathered in irony.
There's no doubt in my mind that Molitor will enter the Hall of Fame through the front door via the BBWAA voting as opposed to Carter who I loved as a Jay but who i suspect is a notch below the line, so he will have to get in the back door as a Veteran. When all is said and done I think Alomar is front door guy and McGriff if he can play 1 or 2 more seasons.
For what it's worth (plenty, in my opinion), the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (2001) ranks Dave Stieb as the 74th greatest pitcher of all-time. The list goes to 100, and Jack Morris isn't on it.
Pitcher PRAR PRAA
Tommy John 78 1154
Jim Kaat -14 1039
Jack Morris 27 916
Phil Niekro 209 1385
Don Sutton 170 1354
Based on these numbers, Niekro and Sutton are a big step ahead of John, who himself is a big step ahead of Kaat and Morris. It's not hard to draw a line in the sand here.
It's true that Sutton and Niekro made the HoF more because of longevity than because of peak value, but they were still significantly above-average pitchers for a long time. I don't have a problem admitting them.
Has anyone every done anything to estimate the number of Runs and RBI lost by players who starred in low-offense eras?
I ask because a player like Joe Carter, who drove in a lot of runs, would probably have driven in even more had he played his prime in the juiced up late 90s. Then, instead of 259/306/464, 396 HR and 1445 RBI, he might have driven in 1700 RBI and have a greater chance of getting voted in by a group of people who rely heavily on conventional stats. It wouldn't be a justified election in my opinion. It's more of a curiosity than anything.
I ask because a player like Joe Carter, who drove in a lot of runs, would probably have driven in even more had he played his prime in the juiced up late 90s. Then, instead of 259/306/464, 396 HR and 1445 RBI, he might have driven in 1700 RBI and have a greater chance of getting voted in by a group of people who rely heavily on conventional stats. It wouldn't be a justified election in my opinion. It's more of a curiosity than anything.