A Happy Thanksgiving to all our readers in the United States.
Manny years ago, Bill James looked at various indicators of speed in a typical stat line and decided to combine them to derive a number which would roughly indicate the speed of the player on a scale of 1 to 10.
I've done something similar with minor league stats, but I've left out the position component that James used (centerfielders and middle infielders were given high ratings in the category). I've tweaked some of the criteria and weighted them a bit differently than James did. Here are the 4 categories I used:
1) Triples as a percentage of double and triples - the idea being that a fast player can turn a double into a triple more often than an average one, while a slow player will almost always stop at second;
2) Stolen Base attempts (weighted 2*SB + 1*CS) per estimated times on first base - the idea being that fast runners are allowed to attemp a steal and so even a caught stealing is an indication of speed;
3) GIDP per out in play (AB-H-K), adjusted for estimated runners on base. To adjust for runners on base, I look at actual RBIs in relation to expected RBI, given the particular combination of hits the player produced. A batter batting in the middle of the order will likely get more actual RBI than would be warranted by his combination of hits, thus he ought to hit into more DPs than his speed warrants;
4) Runs scored in relation to expected runs scored (based on hits and walks etc), excluding homeruns;
The 4 categories do not have an equal weight in the composite measure: the SB Attempts category is weighted at roughly twice the others (which are nearly equally weighted).
The resulting composite speed score is divided by the league median to produce the final speed ratio. It is a rare player exceeds 2.0 or goes below 0.5.
Here are 2003 speed scores for all Toronto farmhands with 200+ PA for a given team:
Syracuse (AAA): Wise 1.68, Werth 1.67, Alvarez 1.36, Sequea 1.36, G Williams 1.14, Moriarty 1.11, Ryan 1.11, Colangelo 0.94, Pond 0.85, Aven 0.85, Clark 0.81, Gross 0.76, Burnham 0.73, Huckaby 0.70, Cash 0.67, Zuniga 0.66
New Haven (AA): Thompson 1.62, Adams 1.20, Singleton 1.19, Rios 1.08, Fagan 1.01, Logan 0.92, Rich 0.86, Solano 0.84, Chiaffredo 0.84, Pond 0.83, Gross 0.82, Quiroz 0.64, Griffin 0.64
Dunedin (A+): Godwin 1.54, Adams 1.30, Mayorsan 1.11, Tablado 1.01, Jova 0.96, Davenport 0.82, Snyder 0.77, Waugh 0.74, Whittaker 0.74, Whittaker 0.74, Cosby 0.73, McEachern 0.66
Charleston (A): Medina 0.96, Jova 0.95, Smith 0.91, Tablado 0.91, Dragicevich 0.87, Rivera 0.82, Owens 0.78, Hassey 0.75, Corrente 0.70, Schneider 0.64, Zinsman 0.54
A few tentative conclusions may be drawn from these numbers. While Gross' speed is a little below a typical corner outfielder's, Griffin's very low score suggests that he won't be quick enough to play a corner OF slot in the majors and will likely be moved to 1B or DH. Rios' score is near average, which indicates that he's in danger of being shifted to a corner slot when he makes the majors (with Vernon Wells in Toronto, that seemed likely anyway). Russ Adams is quick enough to be a middle infielder in the majors, but so are Jimmy Alvarez and Jorge Sequea. Jayson Werth ought to be shopped to organisations that value speed-power outfielders.
Some readers may wonder why I ignored position in calculating speed scores. The reason is that I use speed scores to adjust the defensive position factor used to adjust batting component stats. It's difficult and time-consuming to evaluate minor league fielding stats, so I decided to incorporate speed as a factor in determining future defensive value. Minor league stats list the number of games played in the outfield, but do not break that down by left, centre and right. Speed scores can remedy that by adjusting the overall outfield position factor: the fast guys are more likely to play centrefield now and in the future and therefore are expected to have more defensive value.
Speed scores can help with infielders too. A middle infielder has to be agile, and while speed and agility are not the same thing, one may note that most good defensive middle infielders stole lots of bases when they were in the minors. Even at first and third base, a higher speed score might indicate quicker reactions.
Manny years ago, Bill James looked at various indicators of speed in a typical stat line and decided to combine them to derive a number which would roughly indicate the speed of the player on a scale of 1 to 10.
I've done something similar with minor league stats, but I've left out the position component that James used (centerfielders and middle infielders were given high ratings in the category). I've tweaked some of the criteria and weighted them a bit differently than James did. Here are the 4 categories I used:
1) Triples as a percentage of double and triples - the idea being that a fast player can turn a double into a triple more often than an average one, while a slow player will almost always stop at second;
2) Stolen Base attempts (weighted 2*SB + 1*CS) per estimated times on first base - the idea being that fast runners are allowed to attemp a steal and so even a caught stealing is an indication of speed;
3) GIDP per out in play (AB-H-K), adjusted for estimated runners on base. To adjust for runners on base, I look at actual RBIs in relation to expected RBI, given the particular combination of hits the player produced. A batter batting in the middle of the order will likely get more actual RBI than would be warranted by his combination of hits, thus he ought to hit into more DPs than his speed warrants;
4) Runs scored in relation to expected runs scored (based on hits and walks etc), excluding homeruns;
The 4 categories do not have an equal weight in the composite measure: the SB Attempts category is weighted at roughly twice the others (which are nearly equally weighted).
The resulting composite speed score is divided by the league median to produce the final speed ratio. It is a rare player exceeds 2.0 or goes below 0.5.
Here are 2003 speed scores for all Toronto farmhands with 200+ PA for a given team:
Syracuse (AAA): Wise 1.68, Werth 1.67, Alvarez 1.36, Sequea 1.36, G Williams 1.14, Moriarty 1.11, Ryan 1.11, Colangelo 0.94, Pond 0.85, Aven 0.85, Clark 0.81, Gross 0.76, Burnham 0.73, Huckaby 0.70, Cash 0.67, Zuniga 0.66
New Haven (AA): Thompson 1.62, Adams 1.20, Singleton 1.19, Rios 1.08, Fagan 1.01, Logan 0.92, Rich 0.86, Solano 0.84, Chiaffredo 0.84, Pond 0.83, Gross 0.82, Quiroz 0.64, Griffin 0.64
Dunedin (A+): Godwin 1.54, Adams 1.30, Mayorsan 1.11, Tablado 1.01, Jova 0.96, Davenport 0.82, Snyder 0.77, Waugh 0.74, Whittaker 0.74, Whittaker 0.74, Cosby 0.73, McEachern 0.66
Charleston (A): Medina 0.96, Jova 0.95, Smith 0.91, Tablado 0.91, Dragicevich 0.87, Rivera 0.82, Owens 0.78, Hassey 0.75, Corrente 0.70, Schneider 0.64, Zinsman 0.54
A few tentative conclusions may be drawn from these numbers. While Gross' speed is a little below a typical corner outfielder's, Griffin's very low score suggests that he won't be quick enough to play a corner OF slot in the majors and will likely be moved to 1B or DH. Rios' score is near average, which indicates that he's in danger of being shifted to a corner slot when he makes the majors (with Vernon Wells in Toronto, that seemed likely anyway). Russ Adams is quick enough to be a middle infielder in the majors, but so are Jimmy Alvarez and Jorge Sequea. Jayson Werth ought to be shopped to organisations that value speed-power outfielders.
Some readers may wonder why I ignored position in calculating speed scores. The reason is that I use speed scores to adjust the defensive position factor used to adjust batting component stats. It's difficult and time-consuming to evaluate minor league fielding stats, so I decided to incorporate speed as a factor in determining future defensive value. Minor league stats list the number of games played in the outfield, but do not break that down by left, centre and right. Speed scores can remedy that by adjusting the overall outfield position factor: the fast guys are more likely to play centrefield now and in the future and therefore are expected to have more defensive value.
Speed scores can help with infielders too. A middle infielder has to be agile, and while speed and agility are not the same thing, one may note that most good defensive middle infielders stole lots of bases when they were in the minors. Even at first and third base, a higher speed score might indicate quicker reactions.
