Thesis :

The next five years of Derrek Lee should reap 125-150 home runs at a cost of about $25-35 million.

The next five years of Hee Choi should reap 125-150 home runs at a cost of about $16 million.

What I love about this trade is, it's a "challenge trade"... two guys who are starters at the same position. We'll get a real good handle on how this trade pans out just by looking at the stats over the next 2-3 years.

If I'm a Marlins fan I'm hoping that the team doesn't do anything stupid like put Jeff Conine at first.

I don't think this is a bizarre trade at all, if a bit unexpected as Lee was rumoured to be dealt elsewhere, for the simple salary reasons Craig lucidly described above. The Marlins simply don't want to allocate that much money at the first base position. Although he works for an owner I despise, I strongly believe that the Florida GM, Beinfest, is very underrated. That being said, I like this deal from the Cubs' perspective. Like the Giants with Barry Bonds, the Cubs have to make a strong effort to contend while they have Sosa, Wood, and Prior under contract. Sosa, for one, is due to decline very soon, so they'd better do what they can to get to the WS now.

It's funny, looking at the Marlins line-up, you have to be really charitbale to think they stand a chance, but their personnel moves have really proven wise in hindsight, and you can't knock the WS victory. Lee was on the way out, and Choi seems like a fair return, both in terms of potential and dollars/cents. Give the Cubs credit, Lee could be solid for them, and is theoretically entering his prime. I guess I am a bit less optimistic about Choi's potential to hit 125-150 homers over the next five years, and definitely give the nod to the Cubs in the short term. And as you said Craig, it's clear from a productivity and performance standpoint who the winner will be, as they both play 1B. One other thing to consider, is Lee's defence - he did win a gold glove this year after all. The intangible of this deal is what the Marlins do with the money they save. I wouldn't say this is a win/win trade so quickly, but I do see where both teams are coming from.

http://economics.about.com
Derrek Lee - 2003
271/379/508 31HR 539AB

Derrek Lee - 2003 BP Projection
278/369/507 25HR 544AB

Hee Choi - 2003
218/350/421 8HR 202AB

Hee Choi - 2003 BP Projection
249/348/444 11HR 235AB

It looks like Choi underperfomed his projection and Lee slightly overperformed. It could be that the projection system is off, or it may be that the Florida marlins sold high and bought low. I think it's the latter, so this looks like a good deal for the Fish from where I'm sitting.

Cheers,

Mike

Is it fair to project Choi at fewer than 250 AB again?

That aside, I agree with David: will Choi really hit 30 bombs?? I just don't see it.

However! If Craig is right, this is clearly a steal for the fish if they can take those extra dollars and spend them on the valuable young arms that won them a world championship.

http://economics.about.com
Is it fair to project Choi at fewer than 250 AB again?

That was his projection for 2003, not 2004.

Cheers,

Mike

I think Choi is more of a lock to hit his OBP projections. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a similar OBP to Lee (circa 2003) next year. The power will probably be dampened, given the nature of the Marlin's homepark, and also the uncertainty towards Pudge-Marlins marriage (I've read he wants a 5 year 50 million deal? I don't think so...)
In that light, I think this is a good challenge trade, I can see what both sides want. The cubbies have to satisfy their manager in getting a "proven" talent (and Lee now has a World Series Ring, that can't be said for most of the Cubs players right now). The marlins get cheaper, though not neccessarily better, I also heard that they are also getting a prospect in return? Is this false?

But "little" trades like this one can have rippling repercussions. (Nice alliteration, that.) Do the Fish now have enough dough to re-sign Pudge? With a return to Wrigley now out of the question, whither Rafael Palmeiro? Who is the minor leaguer that will be heading to Florida from the Cubs? (Remember, the last time these two teams traded, the unknown minor leaguer added was Dontrelle Willis.) Will Ugueth Urbina follow Lee to the Windy City? Does this sound like the end of the old "Batman" series? Tune in next week, same Cub time, same Fish channel!

Derrek Lee's performance this year and last year were remarkably consistent. He's moving to a more favorable ballpark. The odds that he will go .280/.380/.520 this year and next are quite good.

The major league equivalency of Hee Seop Choi's performance in triple A in 2002 is pretty much the same. But, in my view, Lee's odds of doing it again in 2004 at age 28 are better than Choi's of recouping lost ground. On the other hand, there is reason to believe that Choi will be as good or better over the long haul.

I see this as a "present for future" challenge trade. I prefer the Fish's side of that trade, but it is easy to see where the Cubs are coming from.

The other side of the coin for the trade, which others have pointed out, is salary. The Cubs might have decreased the likelihood of them signing pudge, what with some money going to Lee now, whilst the Marlins have some extra cash to float around for holes in their lineup, maybe it is at catcher, maybe it is at RF (I don't think it is in their interest to use cabrera at RF for a whole season).

Well I guess this spells an end to the rumours that the Cubs were interested in Delgado. I really didn't think they had the room to add his salary anyway. It would have been nice for the Jays to get a guy like Choi considering the uncertainty with Delgado after 2004.

If the Marlins can't keep Lowell for salary reasons, they might as well trade him, put Cabrera at third, and get a decent hitting outfielder which should be easier to find or even get in a trade return for Lowell.

I agree with Mike Green for once - I think the Marlins are clear winners here. I might take Choi over Lee for 2004 - his production will be a bit lower, but he's a lot cheaper. In 2005, I'd definitely take Choi - and the gap between him and Lee will widen every year. Add into this the fact that the Cubs might not even resign Lee, and I think they got rooked. The fact that the Marlins get a PTBNL as well is just gravy.

This seems like the kind of deal I could see Beane or JP making.

Derek Lee is very consistent and quite good, but he's no Delgado or Helton. This trade is about the Cub's (Dusty Baker's?) lack of confidence in Hee Choi. I expect the Cubs to look silly on this one in a few years.

ESPN quotes Larry Beinfest as saying that part of the reasoning behind this trade is "to make sure we have the appropriate allocations to retain our core pitching".

This trade is about the Cub's (Dusty Baker's?) lack of confidence in Hee Choi

Let's not forget that Baker was probably afraid that Choi would wilt if left in the sun all summer.

If Hendry made this deal knowing Baker had no intention of playing Choi until Choi could prove himself (the old "you can't get a job without experience, but you can't get experience without a job" quagmire facing so many young people), then he made a bad deal. (And I like Derrek Lee, and I think he'll do great in Wrigley. Lee had 25 WS last year, 11 more than Karros and Choi combined for the Cubs. That's 3-4 more wins in 2004--all else being equal.)

As J.P. will tell you, it's crazy to let middle management dictate executive decisions.

This trade could be a "win-win," albeit a very expensive win for Chicago.

Anyway, Mariotti weighs in:

"Choi was the mandate [in 2003]. As we suspected, he wasn't worthy of the assignment, striking out with alarming frequency and fading away (.218, eight homers, 28 RBI) after his June collision with Kerry Wood."

Yeah, Choi struck out an awful lot. But he also was batting .244/.389/.496 in 50 games played prior to said collision. As to why he had only 22 RBI over that span, ask his teammates.

Let's not forget that Baker was probably afraid that Choi would wilt if left in the sun all summer.

Nice one, Cristian -- if a pun can be called nice.

Good deal all around. The Cubs get somebody Baker will be willing to play, and the Marlins get somebody they'll be willing to pay. For now.

I've never been sure whether the Fish were lucky or smart getting the D-Train in the Clement deal, but this one is a no-brainer. They got Lee the last time they broke up a championship squad, he produced very well for them, and now they've flipped him for another cost-effective 1B who could turn out just as good, if not better. Plus they freed up cash to throw at Pudge, A.J. and/or Lowell.

I hate Loria. Have I mentioned that? It bugs me that his team won, because he deserves to suffer for what he did to Montreal. But he does seem to have a very sharp man running the show in Beinfest. Nobody's perfect -- Larry overpaid to rent Urbina -- but he was clever enough to steal Mark Redman from Detroit, landed Encarnacion for a broken-down pitcher, and got out from under some terrible contracts in the three-cornered deal with Colorado and Atlanta.

For 2004, it's a bit much to expect Choi to outperform Lee, while the Cubs may take a run at the pennant. I don't expect the Marlins to make the playoffs; that Wagner guy alters the division a little. But in 2005 and beyond, the scales should tilt southward.

Choi's forte really isn't pure HR power; it's his sillygood propensity to get on base at a Nick Johnson-ian clip that makes him a keeper...$5 says his EQA beats Lee's in '04. Yeah, Derek's walk total took a sizeable leap in '03, but prior to that, he'd never been considered an exceptionally patient hitter or an exceptional anything, really: 30 HR power is hardly noteworthy these days, nor is a .820 lifetime OPS from a first baseman.

Choi's HR power hasn't seemed great so far and it won't get better in Florida's stadium but his numbers actually seem quite promising as far as future power output goes. Lee's three year split shows his isolated power at .218 and it goes up to .251.

Choi hasn't had a lot of plate appearances, maybe half a season's worth in his whole career up until age 24. Which makes it difficult to put much stock in the numbers he's put up so far but what he's done is actually not bad. His .191 isolated power puts him within spitting distance of Lee and if he raises his .210 career average you would expect it to go up as he starts hitting more balls squarely and striking out less. His patience is already excellent as he's drawn walks in 23% of his plate appearances (Lee was at 14% for his career 2003 season).

All he needs to do is add hitting for average. He might not do it but even if he hits .250-.260 he can be a pretty big asset for a guy not making a lot of money. Sure he strikes out a lot but so do Josh Phelps and Eric Hinske and it's not a huge concern with them.

The Blue Jays have just signed left handed pitcher Bruce Chen to a minor league contract. Pitched last year with the Astros and Red Sox. He has a 4.59 career ERA. Click on my name for the link.

Looks like the Jays are starting to pick up the pieces...

The thing I like about this trade is how the media is painting it as the Marlins beginning their dismantling of a championship team. A fire sale. Wayne Huizenga part two.

It's pretty hard to blame them. Considering what they went through with Wayne Huizenga, I think it would pretty easy to be paranoid about it occuring again. Obviously, the Marlins will still be competitive next year, but overreacting in this case is understandable.

That was my take on the media coverage as well. You could see it coming, just as the Cleveland media portrays any efforts by management to further its rebuilding process (e.g., trading Colon) as some sort of rip-off of Cleveland fans.

Major media just doesn't have the time or energy to analyze these deals with any level of complexity. All they see is each guy's counting stats (ESPN emphasized Lee's HR-RBI totals last year vs. the Cubs' three 1B) and maybe that year's salary, and declare a "winner."

I like this deal from both sides. Cubs have money and need to take advantage of their core, and if Dusty's not going to play the young guys anyway, what good are they on your roster? Fish save the money they'll need to preserve their core. The one curiosity on their side of the ledger is what this means for uberprospect Jason Stokes. I would have thought he would be ready to go in 2005 at the latest. I guess the Marlins will just move one when the time is right. Never hurts to have prospects.

Do you guys have your own opinions or do you always have to reference BP OR ESPN?

Do any of you actually ever watch games?

No, I never watch any games. I like posting nonsense about issues I know nothing about, and I always parrot back what I read elsewhere.

Stupid troll.

we talk about the media...they talk about the money...the money talks about the players...the players talk to the media...

Mr October, I've seen maybe 10 posts from you on this site and not a single one made any actual points on any actual issues. You simply come here, yell an insult, and leave. It's idiotic, and therefore I conclude that you are an idiot.
At least Richard Griffin has the courtesy to put his real name beside what he writes so we can badmouth him properly.

Wait a minute... Griffin? Is that you?

This trade makes sense for both sides. The Marlins can move Conine to first if Choi dosent work out and it gives the payroll flexibility to keep their rotation intact. Lee leaves one of the worst hitting ball parks and should post even better numbers in Wrigley. Chen could be a real bargain so I think its a no lose opportunity to bring him in on a minor league deal. Leskanic's deal was one year 1.35 million I believe so one reliever is now off the market.

Lee's numbers, both minor league and 2003 look remarkably similiar to Choi's pre-injury stats. Now, it's possible that post-injury and Dusty being a dick was the real Choi, but if not, then basically the Cubs have traded a 24 year old (next year is his 25 year) for a 28 year old with the similar numbers and about $6 million more in yearly salary.

Oh, and they get to throw in a PTBNL. I don't get how it could be a win-win trade. I mean does anyone have comprehensive platoon splits on Choi in the minors? The partial ones I saw show him hitting lefties substantially better, but with seriously small sample sizes. But if that's true, then maybe Dusty was taking away his strength earlier in the year by platooning him. (Of course, more so later by just not playing him at all.) I mean .052/.478 is terrible, but he had what, 26 PA?

Regardless, I think Lee will remain a better player than Choi in the real world until sometime around March and in the minds of people who love Batting Average as a core statistic forever.

Also, is the park factor really that huge? Are the Baseball-Reference ratings accurate? I've got Pro Player as 96/96/97/94 since 2000 and Wrigley as 90/96/98/99. They don't look too different to me. Before 2000 Wrigley was more of a hitter's park, but Lee didn't get too many at bats back then. So what's the deal with the conventional wisdom that Lee's going to break out now that he's freed from his pitcher's park?

At any rate, I figure it's not the end of the world, it's just like groundhog day, Hendry looked out, saw his shadow and now it's 95 more years of winter for us in Cub Country.