Thanks to Gerry McDonald for this timely pinch-hit about the plethora of pitching prospects in the Blue Jays' minor-league system. All those talented arms need a place to go, but there are only so many rotation spots in the full-season leagues. Gerry gives an intelligent, well-reasoned explanation of which pitchers should start where and why. Thanks, Gerry!
While General Managers are putting together their rosters in the winter and early spring, their minor-league farm directors are doing the same. Team rosters at the upper levels of the minor leagues have a mix of prospects and veterans. At the lower levels, teams include prospects and fillers. Syracuse's 2003 roster had veterans like Doug Linton, Bruce Aven and Gary Burnham filling out the lineups, with Jason Arnold, Jason Werth and Gabe Gross representing the prospects.
The winter of 2003 presents a nice problem for Dick Scott, the Blue Jays' Farm Director. He has too many starting pitchers. That's right, too many. Scott will have a tough task to fit them all in. Some pitching prospects who have been featured in the Batters Box minor-league summaries will not be able to find a rotation spot.
I'm going to play Farm Director and help Dick do his job. Then you, the reader, can make your suggestions too. Who says a bunch of guys trolling the internet while ignoring their real jobs can't do Dick Scott's job for him?
In 2003, the Jays' full-season teams (Syracuse, New Haven, Dunedin, and Charleston) had 23 pitchers who started ten or more games. At five starters per team, that means the base requirement is 20 starters, with a few swingmen required to cover for injury, promotions, etc. Four of those 23 are unlikely to be starting for the Jays teams in 2004. They are Corey Thurman (gone), Doug Linton (gone), Evan Thomas and Mike Smith. I am assuming the latter two will be in the bullpen at Syracuse.
That leaves 19 returning starters. But the Jays have Justin Miller coming back from surgery (isn't Justin Miller always coming back from surgery?) There is also the possibility that either Mark Hendrickson or Josh Towers could drop down to AAA. Then I have to remember the Auburn pitchers who are due to move up to full-season teams. At Auburn, the Jays had three pitchers who started more than ten games, plus five others who split their time between starting and relieving. Finally, I have to remember Francisco Rosario and Chris Leonard, who were injured last year.
That gives Dick Scott, and me, a pool of 30 starters for 20 spots. John Wesley, who made 8 starts for Charleston, is not included. I did not include part-time starters in 2003. Keep in mind, none of these 30 guys are stiffs. Only one had an ERA over 5.00 in 2003: Diego Markwell, who was a top prospect after 2002. Four others had ERAs over 4.00. So we have 25 pitchers with ERAs less than 4.00, fighting over 20 jobs. Some of them are going to feel robbed.
Who are the 30 candidates?
Jason Arnold
Vinny Chulk
Justin Miller
Mark Hendrickson/Josh Towers
Cam Reimers
Dave Gassner
Dustin McGowan
David Bush
Vince Perkins
Chad Pleiness
Jesse Harper
Chris Baker
Peter Bauer
Diego Markwell
Brandon League
DJ Hanson
Sandy Nin
Ismael Ramirez
Neomar Flores
Charles Talanoa
Josh Banks
Kurt Isenberg
Tom Mastny
Jamie Vermilyea
Shaun Marcum
Danny Core
Chad Mulholland
Justin James
Francisco Rosario
Chris Leonard
Who goes where to start the year?
First question: how should I allocate pitchers between teams? I could start at the top and look to move everyone up one level where possible, and leave some of the lesser prospects at the same level for a second year. This is the union way to go: seniority counts. Alternatively, I could determine who are the premium prospects, put them where I want them to start, and fill in around them with others. I will take this approach.
Who are the premium guys that I want to place?
The AAA level is easy. Jason Arnold and Vinny Chulk have to be in AAA. Similarly, Dustin McGowan and David Bush are premium prospects, as is Brandon League. Vince Perkins had a 2.45 ERA at Dunedin in 2003, allowing less than 0.7 hits per inning pitched. His problem is walks allowed, but if he can fix that, he would jump up to the elite list. From last year's draft, Jamie Vermilyea (assuming he is converted to the rotation), Josh Banks and Kurt Isenberg are key. That makes nine. Nine out of 30 is enough, an average of three pitchers from High A to AAA. Chulk is probably the least key here, but his proximity to the majors will let me keep him on the list. Just missing the cut are Jesse Harper (2.54 ERA at Dunedin) and Tom Mastny (2.26 ERA at Auburn).
Where will I put them?
Arnold and Chulk go to Syracuse, while JP has suggested Bush may start at AAA too. Last year, Bush and McGowan spent the first half at Dunedin and the second half at New Haven. The Jays like to split the seasons of their top prospects, half a year at a lower level and the second half one level up. Last year, Russ Adams, Gabe Gross, Aaron Hill, Jason Arnold, Dustin McGowan, Dave Bush, Jamie Vermilyea, and Brandon League all followed this pattern. The team wants players to have a strong first half to build their confidence; then they have the opportunity to experience the higher level for two and a half months. If they play well, they are set for next year. If they struggle at the next level, it will only be for a half season; then they have the winter to work on their game for the higher level of competition. Following this pattern, I would have expected Bush and McGowan to start at Double-A and move up mid-season. But for now, let's go with JP and say Bush will go to AAA, McGowan to AA. As Farm Director, I have to follow my boss's "suggestions."
League was promoted to Dunedin in mid-2003. As a 20-year-old, he was young for the league and it showed, with an ERA over 4.00. I will leave him there to get off to a good start in 2004. Perkins could follow the same path, but the Jays have a logjam at Dunedin; so I will push him up to AA. Last year's draftees (Banks, Vermilyea and Isenberg) jump two levels to Dunedin. This bypasses Charleston, but if you are on a fast-track, you have to move up quickly (Bush skipped Charleston last year). So I have placed my nine premiere prospects, three at AAA, two at AA, and four at High-A.
Who else starts at AAA Syracuse?
Arnold, Chulk, Bush, and maybe Towers or Hendrickson. Justin Miller could start here if his arm is OK, or he could go to a warm-weather team if there are concerns about his arm. If Miller cannot go, or if Towers/Hendrickson are not here, then the candidates to fill the last spot are Dave Gassner, Cam Reimers and Chris Baker. Gassner would be the number-one backup. Cam Reimers is older than the others and his numbers are average at best. Gassner had a 2.79 ERA at AA, Baker 3.90. They still deserve a shot. However, they do not have great strikeout numbers. This often indicates that they would struggle in the major leagues. As first backup, Gassner has some hope of getting to start. For now, though, I have him in the pen with Baker and Reimers.
Who starts at AA Manchester?
McGowan and Perkins are #1 and #2. Then I have the AAA bullpen guys who could repeat AA. Diego Markwell started at Double-A last year, but did not pitch well enough to keep his spot: an ERA over 7.00 means Diego gets bullpen duty. There are other guys due to move up as well: Chad Pleiness, Neomar Flores and Jesse Harper each spent most of 2003 at Dunedin and are due to move up to the Eastern League. So we have seven candidates for three spots. Gassner, Reimers and Baker are out: they don't need another year of Double-A. Markwell has to prove himself again, in the bullpen. The three guys moving up will push the others out of the way. So my rotation is McGowan, Perkins, Pleiness, Harper and Flores, with Neomar (4.78 ERA at Dunedin) the one on the bubble. If Markwell regains his form, or if Gassner or Baker stay at AA, or if someone else moves up, Flores would the one to be dumped.
Who starts at A-Ball?
Future stars League, Banks, Vermilyea and Isenberg are in the rotation. DJ Hanson, Sandy Nin and Ismael Ramirez each started all of 2003 at Charleston and are due to move up to Dunedin. Their ERAs were 2.54 for Hanson, 2.89 for Nin and 3.02 for Ramirez. Hanson was the best of them and has the better peripheral numbers, so he gets the last spot. Also not making the cut are John Wesley (3.48 at Charleston) and Charles Talanoa (3.71 at Charleston).
Charleston gets the remaining members of the Auburn crew: Tom Mastny, Shawn Marcum, Justin James, Chad Mulholland and Danny Core. Marcum, Core and Mullholland could come out of the bullpen. Marcum had great bullpen numbers in Auburn, but the Jays had too many starters there: Marcum could be converted to starting. Core and Mullholland's numbers were only average. Rosario or Leonard could get their starts here, as the others go to the pen. Nin or Ramirez could stay at Charleston for another year.
So here are your 2004 planned rotations:
Who are the tough-luck losers?
Dave Gassner would be one. He had a 2.79 ERA at Double-A, yet now does not have a job. Baker, Nin and Ramirez also had good numbers, but there is a surplus in the Jays' system. When I place starters, ERA is a valuable measure, but equally valuable is major-league potential. Nin had a good ERA, but he does not project to be a major-league starter; League struggled at Dunedin, but he has a major-league fastball.
We also have to remember that three players missed 2003 due to injury: Rosario, Leonard and Miller. Chances are the Jays will have between one and three pitchers miss most of 2004 with injuries, so that should give the hard-luck losers their opportunity to start.
Finally, you can see from this exercise that Dick Scott's job will only get harder. The Jays hope their pitchers continue to develop this year, and some will be promoted mid-season. The Jays will select another batch of hurlers in June who will be pushing their way up next year. In 2004, there are eight pitchers moving up to full-season teams. In 2005, if we have eight more looking to move up, the same number of our 2004 starting pitchers will have to be moved out to make room. The Jays also hope that one or two of the 2003 draftees, who are starting at Dunedin, follow in Bush's footsteps and start in Triple-A in April 2005. By 2005, JP's dream will come true: a fully-stocked minor-league system with a surplus of pitching to trade or insert into the rotation.
The Jays' rotation in 2005 could include Arnold, Chulk or Bush. One or two of the Double-A pitchers (McGowan and Perkins?) could also push their way into contention by then. JP can pick and choose: it will be a nice problem to have.
So now you know what I would do if I were in Dick Scott's position. What would you do?
While General Managers are putting together their rosters in the winter and early spring, their minor-league farm directors are doing the same. Team rosters at the upper levels of the minor leagues have a mix of prospects and veterans. At the lower levels, teams include prospects and fillers. Syracuse's 2003 roster had veterans like Doug Linton, Bruce Aven and Gary Burnham filling out the lineups, with Jason Arnold, Jason Werth and Gabe Gross representing the prospects.
The winter of 2003 presents a nice problem for Dick Scott, the Blue Jays' Farm Director. He has too many starting pitchers. That's right, too many. Scott will have a tough task to fit them all in. Some pitching prospects who have been featured in the Batters Box minor-league summaries will not be able to find a rotation spot.
I'm going to play Farm Director and help Dick do his job. Then you, the reader, can make your suggestions too. Who says a bunch of guys trolling the internet while ignoring their real jobs can't do Dick Scott's job for him?
In 2003, the Jays' full-season teams (Syracuse, New Haven, Dunedin, and Charleston) had 23 pitchers who started ten or more games. At five starters per team, that means the base requirement is 20 starters, with a few swingmen required to cover for injury, promotions, etc. Four of those 23 are unlikely to be starting for the Jays teams in 2004. They are Corey Thurman (gone), Doug Linton (gone), Evan Thomas and Mike Smith. I am assuming the latter two will be in the bullpen at Syracuse.
That leaves 19 returning starters. But the Jays have Justin Miller coming back from surgery (isn't Justin Miller always coming back from surgery?) There is also the possibility that either Mark Hendrickson or Josh Towers could drop down to AAA. Then I have to remember the Auburn pitchers who are due to move up to full-season teams. At Auburn, the Jays had three pitchers who started more than ten games, plus five others who split their time between starting and relieving. Finally, I have to remember Francisco Rosario and Chris Leonard, who were injured last year.
That gives Dick Scott, and me, a pool of 30 starters for 20 spots. John Wesley, who made 8 starts for Charleston, is not included. I did not include part-time starters in 2003. Keep in mind, none of these 30 guys are stiffs. Only one had an ERA over 5.00 in 2003: Diego Markwell, who was a top prospect after 2002. Four others had ERAs over 4.00. So we have 25 pitchers with ERAs less than 4.00, fighting over 20 jobs. Some of them are going to feel robbed.
Who are the 30 candidates?
Jason Arnold
Vinny Chulk
Justin Miller
Mark Hendrickson/Josh Towers
Cam Reimers
Dave Gassner
Dustin McGowan
David Bush
Vince Perkins
Chad Pleiness
Jesse Harper
Chris Baker
Peter Bauer
Diego Markwell
Brandon League
DJ Hanson
Sandy Nin
Ismael Ramirez
Neomar Flores
Charles Talanoa
Josh Banks
Kurt Isenberg
Tom Mastny
Jamie Vermilyea
Shaun Marcum
Danny Core
Chad Mulholland
Justin James
Francisco Rosario
Chris Leonard
Who goes where to start the year?
First question: how should I allocate pitchers between teams? I could start at the top and look to move everyone up one level where possible, and leave some of the lesser prospects at the same level for a second year. This is the union way to go: seniority counts. Alternatively, I could determine who are the premium prospects, put them where I want them to start, and fill in around them with others. I will take this approach.
Who are the premium guys that I want to place?
The AAA level is easy. Jason Arnold and Vinny Chulk have to be in AAA. Similarly, Dustin McGowan and David Bush are premium prospects, as is Brandon League. Vince Perkins had a 2.45 ERA at Dunedin in 2003, allowing less than 0.7 hits per inning pitched. His problem is walks allowed, but if he can fix that, he would jump up to the elite list. From last year's draft, Jamie Vermilyea (assuming he is converted to the rotation), Josh Banks and Kurt Isenberg are key. That makes nine. Nine out of 30 is enough, an average of three pitchers from High A to AAA. Chulk is probably the least key here, but his proximity to the majors will let me keep him on the list. Just missing the cut are Jesse Harper (2.54 ERA at Dunedin) and Tom Mastny (2.26 ERA at Auburn).
Where will I put them?
Arnold and Chulk go to Syracuse, while JP has suggested Bush may start at AAA too. Last year, Bush and McGowan spent the first half at Dunedin and the second half at New Haven. The Jays like to split the seasons of their top prospects, half a year at a lower level and the second half one level up. Last year, Russ Adams, Gabe Gross, Aaron Hill, Jason Arnold, Dustin McGowan, Dave Bush, Jamie Vermilyea, and Brandon League all followed this pattern. The team wants players to have a strong first half to build their confidence; then they have the opportunity to experience the higher level for two and a half months. If they play well, they are set for next year. If they struggle at the next level, it will only be for a half season; then they have the winter to work on their game for the higher level of competition. Following this pattern, I would have expected Bush and McGowan to start at Double-A and move up mid-season. But for now, let's go with JP and say Bush will go to AAA, McGowan to AA. As Farm Director, I have to follow my boss's "suggestions."
League was promoted to Dunedin in mid-2003. As a 20-year-old, he was young for the league and it showed, with an ERA over 4.00. I will leave him there to get off to a good start in 2004. Perkins could follow the same path, but the Jays have a logjam at Dunedin; so I will push him up to AA. Last year's draftees (Banks, Vermilyea and Isenberg) jump two levels to Dunedin. This bypasses Charleston, but if you are on a fast-track, you have to move up quickly (Bush skipped Charleston last year). So I have placed my nine premiere prospects, three at AAA, two at AA, and four at High-A.
Who else starts at AAA Syracuse?
Arnold, Chulk, Bush, and maybe Towers or Hendrickson. Justin Miller could start here if his arm is OK, or he could go to a warm-weather team if there are concerns about his arm. If Miller cannot go, or if Towers/Hendrickson are not here, then the candidates to fill the last spot are Dave Gassner, Cam Reimers and Chris Baker. Gassner would be the number-one backup. Cam Reimers is older than the others and his numbers are average at best. Gassner had a 2.79 ERA at AA, Baker 3.90. They still deserve a shot. However, they do not have great strikeout numbers. This often indicates that they would struggle in the major leagues. As first backup, Gassner has some hope of getting to start. For now, though, I have him in the pen with Baker and Reimers.
Who starts at AA Manchester?
McGowan and Perkins are #1 and #2. Then I have the AAA bullpen guys who could repeat AA. Diego Markwell started at Double-A last year, but did not pitch well enough to keep his spot: an ERA over 7.00 means Diego gets bullpen duty. There are other guys due to move up as well: Chad Pleiness, Neomar Flores and Jesse Harper each spent most of 2003 at Dunedin and are due to move up to the Eastern League. So we have seven candidates for three spots. Gassner, Reimers and Baker are out: they don't need another year of Double-A. Markwell has to prove himself again, in the bullpen. The three guys moving up will push the others out of the way. So my rotation is McGowan, Perkins, Pleiness, Harper and Flores, with Neomar (4.78 ERA at Dunedin) the one on the bubble. If Markwell regains his form, or if Gassner or Baker stay at AA, or if someone else moves up, Flores would the one to be dumped.
Who starts at A-Ball?
Future stars League, Banks, Vermilyea and Isenberg are in the rotation. DJ Hanson, Sandy Nin and Ismael Ramirez each started all of 2003 at Charleston and are due to move up to Dunedin. Their ERAs were 2.54 for Hanson, 2.89 for Nin and 3.02 for Ramirez. Hanson was the best of them and has the better peripheral numbers, so he gets the last spot. Also not making the cut are John Wesley (3.48 at Charleston) and Charles Talanoa (3.71 at Charleston).
Charleston gets the remaining members of the Auburn crew: Tom Mastny, Shawn Marcum, Justin James, Chad Mulholland and Danny Core. Marcum, Core and Mullholland could come out of the bullpen. Marcum had great bullpen numbers in Auburn, but the Jays had too many starters there: Marcum could be converted to starting. Core and Mullholland's numbers were only average. Rosario or Leonard could get their starts here, as the others go to the pen. Nin or Ramirez could stay at Charleston for another year.
So here are your 2004 planned rotations:
| Teams | Syracuse | Manchester | Dunedin | Charleston |
| 1 | Jason Arnold | Dustin McGowan | Josh Banks | Tom Mastny |
| 2 | Vinnie Chulk | Vince Perkins | Brandon League | Shawn Marcum |
| 3 | David Bush | Chad Pleiness | Jamie Vermilyea | Justin James |
| 4 | Mark Hendrickson | Jesse Harper | Kurt Isenberg | Chad Mulholland |
| 5 | Justin Miller | Neomar Flores | DJ Hanson | Danny Core |
| Bullpen | Dave Gassner | Diego Markwell | Ismael Ramirez | Francisco Rosario |
| Bullpen | Cam Reimers | Sandy Nin (or Dunedin?) | Charles Talanoa | Chris Leonard |
| Bullpen | Chris Baker | Peter Bauer | John Wesley | ? |
Who are the tough-luck losers?
Dave Gassner would be one. He had a 2.79 ERA at Double-A, yet now does not have a job. Baker, Nin and Ramirez also had good numbers, but there is a surplus in the Jays' system. When I place starters, ERA is a valuable measure, but equally valuable is major-league potential. Nin had a good ERA, but he does not project to be a major-league starter; League struggled at Dunedin, but he has a major-league fastball.
We also have to remember that three players missed 2003 due to injury: Rosario, Leonard and Miller. Chances are the Jays will have between one and three pitchers miss most of 2004 with injuries, so that should give the hard-luck losers their opportunity to start.
Finally, you can see from this exercise that Dick Scott's job will only get harder. The Jays hope their pitchers continue to develop this year, and some will be promoted mid-season. The Jays will select another batch of hurlers in June who will be pushing their way up next year. In 2004, there are eight pitchers moving up to full-season teams. In 2005, if we have eight more looking to move up, the same number of our 2004 starting pitchers will have to be moved out to make room. The Jays also hope that one or two of the 2003 draftees, who are starting at Dunedin, follow in Bush's footsteps and start in Triple-A in April 2005. By 2005, JP's dream will come true: a fully-stocked minor-league system with a surplus of pitching to trade or insert into the rotation.
The Jays' rotation in 2005 could include Arnold, Chulk or Bush. One or two of the Double-A pitchers (McGowan and Perkins?) could also push their way into contention by then. JP can pick and choose: it will be a nice problem to have.
So now you know what I would do if I were in Dick Scott's position. What would you do?
