http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/redSox.bg?articleid=343
Is escobar close to signing with the angels? Click my name to find out.

Actually, reports in this area are that the Yankees are one of three teams hot on the trail of Rafael Palmeiro, who would play 1B, and Nick Johnson would be part of a Javier Vasquez deal.

I'll go on record right now, as a Yankee fan, as hating this plan.

So what picks would the Jays receive if the Angels sign Escobar. 1st round, 2nd round or sandwich picks? I can never fully comprehend the compensation picks.

Three years at almost $19 million? Too rich for my blood. That's an average of about $6.3M a season, though had the Jays offered that amount, it would probably have been backloaded slightly. If that's the offer, Kelvim's gone. As someone mentioned earlier, Anaheim is one of the worst teams that could sign Escobar in terms of draft-pick compensation -- they pick 12th, so the Jays would get a sandwich choice between the 1st and 2nd rounds and then the Angels' 2nd-round pick. Eh bien. If the Jays get another David Bush or Josh Banks -- for 2nd-round money, no less -- I'll be happy enough.

Palmeiro has one foot off the cliff already, and whatever team signs him this off-season will get to experience the plunge. But while Johnson is a remarkable talent, still Vazquez is one of the few guys I'd deal him for. It would depend on who else is in the deal, of course, but young aces rarely come available on the market.

http://economics.about.com
Of course, if the Yankees wait a year they wouldn't have to give up any talent to get Vazquez (though they'd probably have to give up draft picks).

As an Expos fan, I like this trade, just because I can't see Vazquez being in a 'Spos uniform for '04 and Omar could do a heck of a lot worse.

In primer the other day, someone (ESPNerik?) suggested that instead of spending money on a top closer, the Jays might be better off finding a mediocre starter and converting him to a closer. Anyone think this is a good idea? Any ideas on what starters out there might come cheap, and could be converted to a closer?

Sorry, I somehow double-posted the thread. Paul, I moved your entry down here and deleted the other one. I have no idea how that happened. Gremlins, I suppose. Where's Zack Galligan when you need him?

http://www.aaronreynolds.ca
Some totally OT Bauxite miscellany: I'm participating in a charity art show to benefit Second Harvest on Friday the 28th. Click on my name and go to the info page for details.

I have four or five free tickets remaining, if anyone wants one. Drop me a line at aaron@bluejayscheerclub.com .

1st round, 2nd round or sandwich picks?

If Kelvim went to Boston, it would have been the Red Sox' first-rounder (because they pick in the bottom half) and a sandwich pick. Assuming (OK, I'm hoping) this rumour is true, and presuming the Angels pick in the first half, it will be their second-rounder and a sandwich pick. The Jays don't improve on their 16th overall pick, but they get two more before their second rounder. That's four of the top 50 or so; we don't know how many sandwich picks there will be.

The most interesting points from today's typically excellent Around the Majors Report by Lee Sinins (if you don't get this free e-mail, you SHOULD). Comments are direct quotes from Lee's two-part newsletter today. (Parentheticals are my own commentary and should not be attributed to Lee.)

According to the Boston Globe, the Redsox plan on nontendering 1B-OF Jeremy Giambi. (Does he end up back in Oakland "competing" with Scott Hatteberg for playing time? With the loss of Terrence Long and Ted Lilly, would the return of Little G make John Gizzi's ESPN column writing that much easier?)

According to the Kansas City Star, the Royals have contacted free agent 2B Todd Walker, to see if he's interested in moving to 3B. (Where have you gone, Joe Randa?)

According to the North County Times, assuming the Padres-A's trade is completed, the A's plan on shopping Terrence Long. (Hahahahahaha ... whew. I'm thinking back to the Mets.)

According to the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles may be close to trading for Richie Sexson or Derrek Lee. (Would you not get Lee much cheaper and at a much better value?)

The Cardinals signed 37 players to minor league contracts, including 1B Kevin Witt. (The only real Blue Jay-related note today.)

According to the New York Times, the Yankees plan on going into spring training with 7 starting pitchers. They already have Mike Mussina, Jose Contreras, Jeff Weaver and Jon Lieber, would like 2 from a group of Andy Pettitte, Bartolo Colon and Javier Vazquez and are interested in David Wells. Yankees GM Brian Cashman says free agent RF Vladimir Guerrero's asking price is too high for them to be interested. (YES, BECAUSE THE SEVEN-MAN ROTATION WON'T COST MUCH!!!)

Orange County Kelvim is so much more appealing than Fickle Fenway Kelvim. Miguel Batista, come on down...

Jordan, that's an incredibly scary Yankee lineup. Happily, though, that's a squad with no defence, no depth and most importantly, no payroll room to sign Vladimir Guerrero.

Even assuming they add a topflight starter, the Yankees don't look invincible to me. For that to be the case, I think they'd need two more topflight starters.

I assume...if the Angels sign Escobar AND sign another Type A free agent who is rated higher then Esobar then the Jays would receive the 1st round supplemental and a 3rd round pick...lets hope the Angels are finished signing Type A free agents (probably not)...

It would depend on whether the other Class A free agents were offered arbitration by their previous clubs. With the market being what it is now and arbitration being somewhat dangerous, it's possible the Angels could sign a few more top players and not have to forfeit any additional picks.

lets hope the Angels are finished signing Type A free agents (probably not)...

Would they be considering anyone besides Tejada?

Agreed but one of the bigger players rumored to be heading to the Angels is Miguel Tejada...Sure he will be offered arb by Oakland.

Escobar : if three years at $18.75 is true, congrats to Kelvim, that's a great contract and I hope he enjoys L.A. It really pushes up the market for starters though! Not good for a team trying to shoehorn a starter, Roy Halladay, and some bullpen help into $15 million or so.

Omar could do a heck of a lot worse

Has done before, and will do again. Montreal need some guys who can put the bat on the ball, Johnson might work out, especially if someone like Jorge DePaula (or anyone who can pitch a tiny bit) came in the deal to soften the blow.

For that matter, I know it sounds totally nuts, but if the Yankees are going to eat Drew Henson's contract, I sort of hope that the Expos can somehow wangle his rights and sit on them. He is too young and too talented to be completely done, and if he can't cut the NFL (which I think is likely) he may want to come back to baseball.

In primer the other day, someone (ESPNerik?) suggested that instead of spending money on a top closer, the Jays might be better off finding a mediocre starter and converting him to a closer.

That would be, in my view, the ideal situation. There are a lot of bad starters with good stuff that might prosper with a switch to the pen; bringing in two, trying them out as short men, and stuffing one at the bottom of the rotation or as a lnog man if it doesn't work out (or if one works out OK and the other works out as a starter) sounds OK to me.

Look at a guy like Todd Ritchie. Ritchie comes into games absolutely smokin'... in the last three years, he has a 709 OPS against in the first inning. He throws 92-93 on the gun, and has a good slider. His changeup is a crappy pitch that hangs up and gets pounded, he throws a curveball that he has no business throwing. He sounds, in fact, like the ideal short relief man if you cut off his bad pitches.

He's coming of rotator cuff surgery, so you 'll want to check him out before bringing him on, but otherwise he sounds like a great bullpen experiment. Todd Ritchie is available for no compensation, he made $1.15 million last year and will sign for less. Probably much less, like the minimum, or maybe $400,000, and would happily be an NRI.

Maybe you could try it with someone like Jamey Wright, who has a hard splitter that doesn't move *quite* like Rivera's, but is a real solid pitch nonetheless. Maybe if he only has to throw 16 pitches instead of 96, he can dial up the velocity from 90-91 to 92-94, suddenly he's that much harder to hit, and if you take two of his five pitches away maybe he'll find the strike zone. A guy like Wright, who is wild, also is that much more effective with the intimidation factor in a short relief situation.

There are lots of guys with so-so pedigrees and an excellent pitch or two that just make more sense as a closer. I mean, there's no great difference in pure stuff between Jimmy Haynes and, say, John Wetteland. Haynes is another guy who, like Ritchie, blows people away in the first inning, but Haynes can't go past three innings without getting killed. Wanna save 35 games, Jimmy? For a guy like that, becoming a closer is a key to a future $5 million contract. If you can get Haynes to throw that big, sharp hook and his good fastball, he could be effective in a short relief situation.

your probable 2004 New York Yankees starting lineup

That's a lot of designated hitters, weak up the middle. They will put up some football scores. It seems foolish to give up Nick the Stick for one year of Vazquez, but it's mandatory for Johnson to be mentioned in every trade rumour.

Any ideas on what starters out there might come cheap, and could be converted to a closer?

That was a better idea last year, when the "band-aid bullpen" underwhelmed AL hitters and for quite a while, nobody could keep a job. If Towers and Hendrickson are #5 and #6, Lopez, Politte, Miller, Kershner and Walker complete an 11-man staff. They're looking to upgrade, so I presume that's one RH stopper and a decision between Politte and Walker. If a lefty like Arthur Rhodes wanted a one year deal, you'd have to consider making Miller and Kershner compete for the other spot.

So the status quo isn't near as bad last year's model. I don't think the '04 Jays need to take a chance on a converted starter at the big-league level, but it's not a bad idea when you're signing minor-league free agents. If a former starter dominates as a AAA closer, they would get a quick promotion, but it's no easy trick to find a pitcher who is willing to make the change. Most guys who have closer stuff would prefer to start somewhere else.

I agree with Coach - last year was an important weeding-out year, when we found out which guys are worthy of being in a major-league bullpen and which are not. Options for this year's staff:
SP: Halladay, Lilly, Hentgen
back-end SP/long men: Hendrickson, Towers, Walker
Relief: Lopez, Politte, Miller, Kershner
That's 10 guys already, plus at least one SP we'll definitely be signing. Those are all major-league calibre arms, though there are obviously a little too many guys on the list who you'd rather have as your 10th or 11th man. That being said, with a few arms who could conceivably make the jump from the minors, and JP sure to sign a few bargain FA, I don't think anything drastic needs to be done. Say we sign one good SP (maybe not Escobar, but there are multiple options out there), one bullpen stopper, and one anonymous prospect/project for the pen. Then we'd have:
SP: Halladay, Anonymous SP, Lilly, Hentgen, Hendrickson/Towers
UT/Long Relief: Other of Hendrickson/Towers
Bullpen stoppers: FA Guy, Lopez
Short relief: Politte, Miller, prospect/project

This leaves Kershner and Walker as the odd-men out, though either could be fine replacing the prospect/project.

Anyway, 15 mil seems like plenty to me.

Ladies and gentlemen, your probable 2004 New York Yankees starting lineup:

That is a good lineup but let me go on record as saying Bernie Williams is just about done. The 70 point drop in batting average year over year, at age 35, without coming at the expense of increased power or plate discipline, should be pretty concerning.

http://www.yesnetwork.com/team/index.cfm?cont_id=215114&page_type=wide
Primer had an interesting article yesterday from Steven Goldman on the prospects of Jeter being moved - I'm really starting to like Goldman, he's a relentless Yankee-booster but he still tries to be fair and has some good insights.
Click on my name for the article.

Personally I don't care where Escobar ends up, as long as it is not with the Jays. I was disappointed when he got resigned last year. And surprized when he got one of the two biggest ovations on opening night. You never knew which Esobar would show up. He might blossom somewhere else, but I don't think it will here in TO

What about Justin Miller? Is he ever coming back? He might be a back of the rotation possibility if Towers blows up, which I think he might.

Proving once again that there's no organization better at pointless moves than Tampa Bay, the Devil Rays have acquired Tino Martinez and his $7.5M 2004 salary ($1M buyout in 2005) from St. Louis. At least the Cards are paying $7M of the total amount, but the fact remains that the Rays have him on their roster, and more problematically, will give him 500 ABs next year during which his .273/.352/.429 line can be expected to deteriorate further. None of this changes the fact that Walt Jocketty's original signing of Tino to a $21M contract two years ago was stupid even by the standards of 2001.

I don't think Kelvim ever got a fair shake as a starter in Toronto. Way too much shuffling him around. When he was putting up 5.00 ERAs and throwing tons of pitches as a 22-24 year old starter the Jays kept throwing him out there instead of letting him spend the required innings in the minors to work on his game and mindset and be taught instead of being consistently ragged upon for failing to live up to his potential and shuffled endlessly between the pen and rotation. Halladay basically suffered the same types of problems at a similar age but the organization eventually did the right thing with him.

Of course $18.75 million is a heck of a lot to pay and I completely understand that the Jays wouldn't want to go there. I still think their offer was designed to be good but safely short of what other teams would likely offer; in other words they liked the two extra picks better. No matter as they weren't ever going to offer near $18 million over three years anyway and two more good prospects in the draft and around $9 million or so to spend between a second starter and bullpen help who might be much better financial risks. In the long run, the Jays will make up for it assuming they continue to draft the way they have recently (and aren't shy of spending money on those extra picks). Their prospects for '04 aren't as good barring a major trade IMO, but they remain as solid as ever in '05 and beyond.

There have been an average of about 10 sandwich picks in the past 10 years, a high of 21 in 1999 and a low of zero in 1995. The 3 and 4 year average is around 10 as well so it's safe to assume it'll be somewhere around there again. Although more teams are becoming worried about losing draft picks and offering arbitration we've already seen two free agents signed who aren't even the best available and compensation surrendered. Assuming 10 sandwich picks that would place the Jays picking 16th, 35th, 52nd, and 56th overall (the last three estimated). Not a bad fate considering they would want to pay these guys more modest bonuses to fit their budget anyway.

I would take Derek Lee of Richie Sexson. And if anyone in the BBFL has interest in Sheffield or Giambi, I'm willing to talk.

At least the Cards are paying $7M of the total amount, but the fact remains that the Rays have him on their roster, and more problematically, will give him 500 ABs next year during which his .273/.352/.429 line can be expected to deteriorate further.

But why is this a problem? Tino Martinez isn't a bargain at $1.5 million ($500,000 in salary cost, $1 million for the buyout) but five important (I think) points:

(1) Tampa isn't going to contend, or even hit .500, no matter what sort of happy pills Lou Piniella might be passing around these days. So Tino isn't going to hurt you that way.

(2) There's nothing, I mean *nothing*, in the free agent market at first base. The best first baseman on the market might be Scott Spiezio. The alternative is bringing back Travis Lee, but Lee's destined to be non-tendered. At any rate, Lee will want a two-year deal, and with actual first basemen coming onto the market in 2004/05, the Rays only want to give one year.

(3) Tino will give you what Lee can.

(4) With Tino in the fold early, it's quite possible that Lee will sign with someone early and net you a sandwich pick (Lee is a type B)

(5) The alternative is signing some Ken Phelps All-Star, because there are no first-base candidates in the Tampa system that are ready for prime time. Tino will probably do with the bat roughly what one of the KPAS guys would, he has a good glove for first, and he's a good citizen and his leadership skills (and rings) are generally well-thought of.

It's not a slam dunk, because an OK glove at first, good citizenship, and leadership skills are not generally going to cost you $1.5 million, or two minor leaguers. Rust is a 25-year-old minor-league reliever who doesn't scream "prospect" (good K numbers, though) so the Rays haven't given up an arm and a leg. I think the move is defensible.

If Jonny Gomes wants to fast-track his route to stardom, by the way, he should be taking 500 grounders and 500 throws at first base every single day this winter.

Tino is from Tampa. He loves Piniella (though they've kept missing each other at Seattle and in New York). I think Ye Auld Skool GMs would see this as a potential bounceback situation.

Now, I don't think he'll outhit Delgado or anything, but .285/25/105 would make him the cleanup hitter there.

When I said Scott Spiezio might be the best 1B on the market, I kicked myself shortly thereafter, because I clean forgot Raffy Palmeiro.

Then I looked at Raffy's defensive numbers. His games played at first base in the last five years:

28
108
113
97
55

If you sign Raffy, you're getting a 60% DH. Minimum.

Hijack...

If you're going to have someone bumped off, don't leave a death threat by text message on their cell phone.

A sad story gets sadder. And dumber... much, much dumber.

Of course $18.75 million is a heck of a lot to pay and I completely understand that the Jays wouldn't want to go there. I still think their offer was designed to be good but safely short of what other teams would likely offer; in other words they liked the two extra picks better.

I disagree. I think their offer was as good as they felt they could go. I don't think the team is making phony moves to appear like they tried to sign him. If they really didn't want Escobar they wouldn't have had a 2 year offer on the table.

At best the draft picks are 3-4 years away from Toronto, and they're looking to be a player well before then. I'm pretty sure that the Jays would rather have Escobar today than 2 players that may or may not pan out several years down the road. It's just nice to get something rather than nothing.

I'll take a guess at 8 sandwich picks this year.

---

Regarding Martinez, it's not a move that's going to make them a championship team, but it's better than paying the minimum to someone that won't do anything. At least they are trying to improve, which a lot of teams can't say these days.

I do think they wanted Escobar back just like Oakland wants Tejada back. But if Oakland offered Tejada a 2 year 15 million contract claiming it's the best they could do they can't realistically expect him back. I mean there's something to be said for team loyalty and money not being everything but at the end of the day your offer at least has to *compete* with the other offers.

I can understand two years being an opening offer but if the Jays really felt that good about him adding the third year shouldn't have been a problem. Expecting to pay anything less for a young, high ceiling free agent starter is naive. I agree they'd rather have Escobar than two extra draft picks but for whatever reason they weren't willing to pay a reasonable price for him. A three year $15 million offer might have been accepted by Kelvim off the bat.

Miguel Batista and any other free agent starter of actual worth will get three year offers as well. I think the only chance of completing the rotation properly for 2004 is through trade. Unless you accept that Lilly is your #2 starter, sign veteran X for one year, and use the rest of the cash on the bullpen.

My version of the 2004 Yankees lineup differs slightly from the posted in the original post - involving the signing of Mike Cameron and the trade of Soriano for Lowell and the Johnson for Vazquez trade

SS Jeter
CF Cameron
DH Williams
RF Sheffield
1B Giambi
C Posada
3B Lowell
LF Matsui
2B Boone

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=1667569
From Jayson Stark column. This is good for a laugh or a cry.

CLICK ON MY NAME FOR THE LINK. Go to very bottom of page !

Which leads us right into this week's big baseball headline from the brilliant online humor site, ironictimes.com:

"COMMISSIONER SELIG ADDS INCENTIVE TO STEROID BAN
League with fewest All-Stars testing positive gets home-field advantage in World Series."

That article brings back some memories...

Man, whatever happened to Chuck Knoblauck and Jose Offerman?

Am I just out of the loop or what?

And don't tell they don't play because of those bad last few averages, because if they let Felipe and Izturis play...

Sounds like the Expos are set to play 22 games in PR. The Jays will be going down there for a 3 game series.

Which of course makes no sense. You'd think Montreal would get a sizable crowd for the Jays games.

Hey at least Delgado will get a chance to play in front of his home crowd (presuming he isn't traded). I hope those games are televised.

Its a done deal. Escobar the Angel.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1668122
Yep...
Looks like Escobar gets $18.75 million over 3 years to go to the Angels.
Draft picks are a-coming, in the form of a sandwich and an early mid second round pick.
Does this mean the Jays will now go after Batista?

I am, for once, quite impressed with the Star article on the Escobar signing...of course, Mr. Griffin has yet to weigh in on the matter

Does this mean the Jays will now go after Batista?

As far as I know Batista is only spectulation on the part of the bauxites. For all we know the Jays don't want him at all.

Nothing will likely happen before Dec 7th.

Nevermind. The Star spectulated on the Jays going after Batista and Sheets.

Ricciardi said dropping Escobar from the payroll would leave the Jays about $8-million to get a starter or two, two pitchers for the bullpen and some help at short to play behind starter Chris Woodward.

FWIW - Elliot says that the Jays are interested in Tim Worrell as well.

There's now a new thread on the Escobar signing. I'll move all the comments from this thread over there.

Ted Lilly's full name?

Theodore Rooselvelt Lilly

Could someone edit Geoff's comment to include a link instead of just pasting in the long URL?

http://wfan.com/chrismikeaudio/
JP was on WFAN in NY today with Mike and Mad Dog according to some posters on Jays ESPN Fan Board.

Some comments from ESPN Jay Fan Board

1) J.P. was on the Fan here in NY talking to Mike and the Mad Dog I believe. I didn't actually listen to him, but when the sound byte gets put up on the website I'll be sure to post it up here.

2) How long does it take for the sound bite to get put up?

3) JP Said they want another starter and help in the bullpen. And have some interest in bringing Lidle back. And he hasn't heard for sure if Anaheim signed Escobar

Mike and Mad Dog Link on WFAN is http://wfan.com/chrismikeaudio/

WE will see tomorrow if there is a link for the J.P interview.

Click ON MY NAME FOR THE LINK ALSO!

Totally OT but Saturday Night Live just jabbed Don Zimmer in the ribs nice 'n hard. They had 'him' hosting a sports TV show and to prove he was over all his sour feelings towards Boston, he invited a BoSox ball girl (Halley Barry) onto the show. He ends up getting mad at the Sox again and decides to attack the ball girl, the ball girl pulls a Pedro and the skit ends with Zimmer looking like a turtle on its back.

A: this is actually a repeat SNL, from around the beginning of the world series.
And the zimmer sketch was pretty dumb, I thought - though Horatio Sanz does a great Zimmer.

Good to know, it did seem like a delayed reaction...I agree with you on the intelligence of it. I almost felt bad for Zimmer.

The Boston Globe reports the Jays are among the teams interested in John Burkett as well as Sterling Hitchcock. Also noted, the Jays are expected to be giving a workout to comebacking pitcher Kevin McGlinchey.

I found this quote pretty interesting

"According to one prominent agent, after the dust clears from the non-arbitration tenders, "You could put together a team that would be better than four or five teams in the league."

I can only assume the interest in Burkett and Hitchcock is conditional on them signing low dollars for one year. I don't really understand it myself. Those look like padding innings signings rather than quality signings. The potential for the 2004 version of Tanyon Sturtze is very high with these guys.

I think the Burkett and Hitchcock interest may be old news (that is- prior to Hentgen and Lilly). It doesn't make sense that the Jays would be interested in a bottom of the rotation player at this point.

It doesn't make sense that the Jays would be interested in a bottom of the rotation player at this point.

Exactly.

From Gammons' latest notes:

The Twins have to pare payroll so they can try to re-sign Shannon Stewart and either Everyday Eddie Guardado or Hawkins. They have talked to Toronto about Orlando Hudson, as have the Indians, Red Sox and several teams. The Jays have patched their pitching well with Ted Lilly and Pat Hentgen, but want more young pitching, even with Dustin McGowan, Jason Arnold and David Bush scheduled for September arrivals.

Hmm. When we're talking about Hudson to the Twins I can't think of any pitchers who would convince me to make that trade for sure except Johan Santana which you have to believe isn't happening. If it's to pare payroll then the only guy I can think of is Eric Milton who is due a full $9 million in 2004 and is then a free agent. I think that's a large one year risk with him coming off injury even if the Twins eat half the contract.

Hudson for Cliff Lee would be a great deal for the Jays if they can assume that Adams will be ready for 2B duty full-time in 2005. It'll be a pretty uninspiring infield defence in 2004 without Hudson though.

can't think of any pitchers who would convince me to make that trade for sure

I'd take a Juan Rincon with a side order of Jesse Crain or a helping of J.D. Durbin. If the Jays could get that, I might consider giving up Hudson. Not "for sure", though. For all three though? Yes, absolutely.

I'm also pretty high on Kyle Lohse. A 3-1 K/W ratio in 200 AL innings tends to get my attention.

I'm very intrigued by Lohse as well. He hit 200 innings last year for the first time but pitch counts look pretty reasonable. Hard to say if Minnesota would give him up, but I believe he's arbitration eligible and they look like they're trying to squeeze every dollar they have right now. (I have seen conflicting reports on whether he's arby eligible or not, but I believe he is). Looks like a good match to me.

On a completely different note, MLB is apparently trying to make inroads into China: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1669099.

With a presidential election coming in November 04, wouldn't it be funny if America's attitude to Cuba changed to one of acceptance? If it did, I think Castro would make a helluva Commissioner, and the ideal ambassador for MLB in China. He was apparently a fine left-handed pitcher, and he's autocratic enough to deal with wayward owners and union representatives.

If the Americans can learn to forgive for Pearl Harbor, surely the Bay of Pigs is next.

Lohse is a good #3 finesse type innings eater who won't hurt you too badly and probably win 15 games for the Jays. And that's certainly valuable. I don't think his minor league numbers or major league numbers (low K rates) suggest a significantly higher ceiling than what he's giving the Twins now and he may actually have some downside when moved to a slightly worse defence in Toronto (one without Hudson or Bordick). In other words, isn't this the type of pitcher you can fill in through short term free agent signings (read Pat Hentgen)?

I would hope if the Jays trade Hudson it's for a guy who has a chance to be up near the front of the rotation. Maybe that's a lot to ask for a second baseman that probably doesn't have a much higher ceiling than he has now but from the Jays' standpoint, Hudson helps all of their pitchers look better and putting aside his batting against lefties he's above average offensively for the position. He hit about as well against righthanded pitching as Todd Walker. Of course there's that horrid .410 ops against lefties but that can only go up no? Even with that his overall OPS is 6th in the AL which is great combined with his defence and at least another two years before arbitration.

If Lohse is the best they can get for him I might be more inclined to hold on to Hudson. I think by the end of '04 if he'll be one of the top 5 in the AL offensively. Considering that three of the top five from '03 are Young, Walker, and Kennedy, all of whom with significantly more experience, I think he has a decent chance of finishing the year third behind only Boone and Soriano (who may not even be at second this year).

Lohse is a good #3 finesse type innings eater who won't hurt you too badly and probably win 15 games for the Jays.

My impression is that the stats are misleading when it comes to Lohse. Aside from Santana, he's probably got the best "stuff" on the Twins starting staff and he throws much harder than you'd think given those K-rates (94mph fastball). This might be a situation where he has all the talent but hasn't been able to put it together in a performance that translates to nice numbers. Given that he'll only be 25 next year, I'd take that in a heartbeat.

Straight up for Hudson though? That I'm not so sure about. The guy has great D and his bat will get better with age. I can see Hudson having a career similar to this guy, with the gap in walks being made up by Hudson having more hits.

I agree. Lohse's major problem is not his K rate (about 6 per 9IP over his major league career), but his home run rate (more than 1 per 7IP). It would not be better in the Skydome than it is in the Metrodome, and could very well be worse. His ERA, both last year and over his major league career, is about 4.6.

The interesting thing about Lohse is that he is 24 years old only, and has 2 average ML seasons under his belt without injury (he did pitch 170 innings in A and AA ball at age 19 and 20, so that is a risk factor). Assuming he can avoid injury, he has a good chance at being able to improve from his current level within the next couple of years.

But, trading Hudson would be a mistake. An infield of Hinske, Woodward, Catalanotto and Delgado is a recipe for a run prevention disaster, including for a pitcher such as Lohse. And, if I were Roy Halladay, I wouldn't be enthusiastic about re-signing with that infield behind me.

Lohse certainly has a fast fastball but Tanyon Sturtze can get his pitches up to 93 with fair consistency and he hasn't improved in striking out people with time. That's why historical stats are just as telling as scouting reports. The reports can tell us a pitcher looks good throwing his pitches but not how well the batter is picking them up. Don't forget that Lohse pitched in the Central as well which meant more innings against the Indians and Tigers (a combined 33:5 k/bb and 3.30 era against those two over 46.1 innings).

In fact I think Sturtze/Lohse profile fairly similarly. They can throw a lot of innings but they'll seldom dominate. Lohse does have control in his favour and he did great in that respect this year. I'm just saying I'd rather sign another Hentgen type than trade an important piece of the present day infield for him. Talent for talent it might be an ok deal for the Jays. I just think it's not a necessary one for them to make at this time.

Would we traded Hudson for Lilly? I would say Lilly has as much or better upside than Lohse at the moment, save perhaps for innings. Now if we're talking about a Cliff Lee who has a decent chance to be a dominant lefty I think that's different. Otherwise I don't see why the Jays would need to make that type of trade.

From Rotoworld.com:

WFAN in New York is reporting that the Diamondbacks will trade Curt Schilling to the Red Sox for Casey Fossum and two prospects.

Yikes.

I guess I don't really appreciated "O-Dog" as much as the locals who see him every day. (By the same token, I do see former Jay property Michael Young in Texas play almost every day and wouldn't trade him for Hudson even up ... ever. Which I suspect will raise some howls.)

Anyway, is this possibly a case of overvaluing the home guy? I know you can't completely trust the comps available at BaseballReference.com, but if the best "most similar" guys to Hudson are Ron Oester and Tim Teufel while the best "most similar" guys to Lohse guys like Jason Jennings, Jason Bere and Jaret Wright ... well, that seems like a pretty even one-for-one deal.

I guess I just like Lohse a little better than everyone else. I certainly don't see him being anything like Sturtze who has never exhibited the type of control that Lohse has. He's already exceeded anything Sturtze has done and is 8 years younger. If anything his profile is closer to Halladay's than Sturtze's. (Note: I'm not saying he'll ever be anywhere near Halladay, just that he's nowhere close to being like Sturtze). If you can find a healthy young starter who can put up 200+ above average innings for $2 million next year then by all means go for it. But I really think Lohse has some upside. I like Hudson, but trying to be subjective I don't think we can do much better than a guy like Lohse. If we could get somebody like Cliff Lee, or a Fossum/De La Rosa package then sure, go for it. But I just don't see that being realistic.

Everybody seem to be clamouring for Sheets but is he really that much better than Lohse? At the same age their numbers are extremely similar. Sheets has a slight edge but not really that much. They both throw low to mid 90's fastballs, great curves and mediocre-to-poor changeups. Though Lohse has a slider included in his mix.

They can throw a lot of innings but they'll seldom dominate.

You have Sturtze's number but as far as Lohse is concerned, I disagree. He pitched very well for most of the season. He went through a bad streak from mid-June to mid-July where his ERA over 8 starts was 11.27. The other 25 starts, his ERA was 3.42. Obviously, you can't simply take out the starts you don't like to get to a palatable ERA but you have to consider that the starts were all in a row and at mid-season, as opposed to the end of the year. Did he correct a flaw in his delivery? Was it something coachable? He was only 24 so it's very possible that it was. And if it was and it's been corrected, what's Lohse's future look like?

Historical stats are a great predictor of future success...absolutely. But if the guy was pitching in AA at 20 years old, you have to take the numbers with a grain of salt.

Anyway, I got off topic. The original point I wanted to make is that Lohse isn't a finesse guy. Soft-tossers don't improve at the same rate that hard throwers do and usually don't stay at a high level of success for as long so it's an important difference. Plus, JP doesn't seem to like soft-tossers...he's more the kind of pitcher that JP would be interested in then your original report made him out to be.

(By the same token, I do see former Jay property Michael Young in Texas play almost every day and wouldn't trade him for Hudson even up ... ever. Which I suspect will raise some howls.)

I'll bite on that... sort of.

Age 24 MLB stats
Hudson .276 / .319 / .443 in 192 ABs
Young .249 / .298 / .402 in 386 ABs

Age 25 MLB stats:
Hudson .268 / .328 / .395 in 474 ABs
Young .262 / .308 / .382 in 573 ABs

Based on those numbers and the fact that Young is a year older than Hudson, I'd prefer Hudson. But in his age 26 season, just concluded, Young went .306 / .339 / .446. Is it a fluke, a career year, a breakout? Will Hudson also become a significantly better hitter in the next couple of years? Young had a more consistent minor league career, but Hudson was better in AA and AAA. It's a tough call right now, should be much easier in a year.

Mick,

Similarity scores do not take into account defence. Orlando Hudson was at least an above average defensive second baseman (Win Shares had him as the top-rated defensive player at any position in the league; I don't know about that, but he's certainly very good). Tim Teufel was a fine hitter for a second baseman for many years, and Ron Oester was not bad. If you include very good to great defence, you've got a real nice and hard-to-replace package.

Mike Young is 27, and over his 3 year career in Texas has gone .277/.318/.412. He actually was more or less a contemporary of Hudson's in the Blue Jay minor league system, but did not perform anywhere near as well.

HIJACK!

One year ago who in the Box would have guessed this. It appears that Cory Lidle is a HACKING MASS all-star. Here's hoping we have better luck with our #2 starter in 2004.

In fun news, MLB.com has some interesting awards to hand out. Today they are taking votes for Bizarre Moment of the Year. Even if you don't care about voting, if you have Real Player on your computer you can still relive memories of Jack Cust falling down twice in the same play, the Expos botching the infield fly rule, and Ozzy's rendition of 'Take Me Out to the Ballgame'.

Hijack Alert as the Cubs have traded heralded prospect Hee-Sop Choi to Florida for Derrick Lee. This maybe clears the way to get Pudge resigned

Today's column from Richard Griffin is here... apparently the Red Sox's potential deal for Schilling is proof that every team except for the Jays are not happy with standing still. This is even though the Jays have already acquired 2 starters:

Meanwhile, the Jays are, once again, being fiscally responsible, to the delight of brainwashed fans. Even after adding Pat Hentgen and Ted Lilly to offset the losses of Kelvim Escobar, Cory Lidle and Tanyon Sturtze, Carlos Tosca has a grand total of just 70 returning major-league wins on his 40-man roster — 22 by one man, Roy Halladay.

Jason

http://economics.about.com
What a load of shit. Why does Griffin mention JP but not Rogers? It's obvious that JP is doing the best he can with the budget he has.

If his beef is with Rogers for not giving JP more to work with, why not write that in the article? Why slag JP?

Mike

I've found it's easier and less aggravating to just not read Griffin at all.

Re Griffin: If I'm not mistaken, isn't it late November? Is success measured by how fast a team signs players, rather than the quality of those players? Would he be happier if Toronto pulled a head-spinner like Seattle's signing of Ibanez (and lost their #1 pick in the bargain)?

Carlos Tosca has a grand total of just 70 returning major-league wins on his 40-man roster — 22 by one man, Roy Halladay

Can I point out how idiotic this is?

Returning Wins on ML Roster

Toronto Blue Jays 70
New York Yankees 39

Richard Griffin is dumb as a weathervane, and twice as shifty.

I hope Griffin realizes that casual fans will read his article and believe the Jays aren't doing their best to win. This will have the effect of keeping the fans away from the ballpark, which keeps revenues down, which keeps the team from increasing his budget...Maybe Rich should be looking in the mirror rather than taking potshots at J.P. if he wonders why the Jays can't spend money

I wonder: if we wrote a letter to the sports editor debunking Griffin's claims, would he publish it?

I think Griffin is great. His columns are some of the funniest baseball writings around. They're illogical and single-minded to the point of self-parody, as though the Star has just been running Griffin satires for the past year or so.

I mean, sure, it might be nice to have someone who actually retained some credibility, but why be greedy?

I think the only way to stop Griffin would involve some sort of a one-man show a la Kathy Griffin on Seinfeld

I'd be interested to know if the Star asked him to put a Jays spin on this article. It almost seems like the last few paragraphs were slapped in there with something out of the Griffin archives. It could have been a halfway decent piece if he had just stuck with the Schilling/MLBPA angle, but I guess halfway decent is too much to ask for.

For more informative writing, try http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/TorontoSun/Sports/2003/11/26/268551.html. Apparently Carlos Delgado expects contract extension talks to occur after 2004 (rather than this off-season).

I don't think does the Jays much good to extend him right now...he's coming off a near MVP season and we have yet to see what the top tier of free agents are going to end up getting. And just like he says, a lot of what the Jays plan to do for 2005 through 2007 is going to depend on what their team shows by the end of 2004 and perhaps what their AA and AAA teams show.

I think the Jays would entertain trade offers but it would be much like the Schilling situation. The other team would have to convince Carlos to accept the trade, likely through a pricey extension. And even then it would have to be a half-way decent trade for the Jays to think about it.

Then there's the issue of the Jays likely not wanting to offer more than a three year extension, maybe four at most for the type of dollars Delgado will get (though JP has already said he won't sign anyone past 2007). There will be the issue of another no-trade clause being requested.

The Jays can't really win in this situation. Delgado is extremely important to the team and yet his salary is restrictive. His salary and no-trade clause also make it extremely difficult to make a good trade with him. If they sign him up at a big price for more years then it still significantly restricts them from adding more players without more payroll room what with the inevitable raises for Halladay, Wells, Hinske, Lilly, and others. I think given the circumstances the best they can do is see how he and the team do this year and hope for the best, being prepared to lose him for nothing but the immense salary relief they would get.

Griffin may have come up with "zombie-like cult of statistical seamheads" before he even knew Da Box existed. Not long afterward, he directed a crack at "J.P.-worshippers," which I'm pretty sure was intended to provoke Bauxites. Now, if you don't agree with his perspective, you've been "brainwashed". What else is new?

Why slag JP?

Jealousy. When you think you're the smartest baseball guy in the press box, if not the entire country, then people show up who contradict so much of the foolishness you thought was gospel, and the team improves dramatically, it's much easier to attack straw men than admit you were wrong.

There's another possibility; especially if you begin with an anti-Jays perspective, J.P. would be in the cross-hairs because you'd see Rogers using him as a human shield to deflect criticism.

Of course, even Rich doesn't take his nonsense seriously. Last time he claimed the Orioles were about to pass the Jays, I offered a gentleman's wager, but he wasn't interested.

Click my name for a link to the globe and mail, who are claiming the Jays have signed bruce chen to a minor league deal.

The Kotsay deal was completed today, as originally reported, according to Sportsticker on the espn.com wire. Kotsay to the A's and Hernandez and Long to the Padres is the deal.

Here's the correct Chen link. Not sure what to make of this. He's certainly been with many a team.

Here's Chen's career numbers.Is he Wasdin # 2 or still a legitimate back end rotation candidate.Has always had pretty good SO ratios. You have to wonder about his attitude given the number of teams he's been with.

He's had two sraight bad years, but the sum total of reasons for Chen's lack of success is:

(1) he gives up too many home runs

That's it. He *should* be able to do something about that, and even if he can't, he still could wind up being Rick Helling. That has value.

I agree with Craig; I like the acquisition quite a bit. Chen's record from 96-00 was that of a coming fine pitcher. He's only 26, and he's a lefty. And the price is right.

I'd put him in Syracuse as a starter at the beginning of the year to get him to work on his focus and confidence. If he succeeds there, then I'd put him in the bullpen in TO, and so on. I'd say that he has a 20-30 per cent chance of success in the majors, but if he does, he could be very good.

I also like the Chen signing. It's a pretty low-risk move. As long as there isn't a clause in his contract that allows him to become a free agent at the end of spring training if he doesn't make the major league roster, the Blue Jays will have plenty of time to work with him and see if they can turn him into a serviceable pitcher. Points in his favour are that he's still young and he hasn't had a significant history of injuries.

Here's an amusing sidenote to the Chen signing. Chen is 26 and now with his eighth organization. Mike Morgan is usually the name that comes to mind when talking about well-travelled pitchers, but he didn't join his eighth team until he was 35.

I ended up sitting near Chen at a Lynx-Pawsox playoff game last year. (Being the next game's starter, he was charting the game in the stands) I didn't say anything to him, though he seemed to find my carrying on about the "God of Walks" kind of amusing in a geeky sort of way.

He responded politely to the "Are you a player?!?!" questions from the people in front of him, but I guess if he didn't want attention, he would've worn something other than his Pawsox jacket... (I doubt many in the park would've known who he was)

Seems like a decent signing, though... I don't really see the downside. I remember his K/IP and K/BB numbers being good at AAA next year... at worst, he's a decent starter for the Skychiefs if he sticks around.

It seems like Bruce Chen has been around for 10 years but he's still just 26. I think it's a good gamble but I'm hoping he isn't guaranteed a spot on the strength of 12 or 15 strong spring innings. That's not going to be enough time to see if he's over his homerun problems. And those problems are so bad at this point that they more than cancel out anything good he does in terms of strikeouts.

http://economics.about.com
This has nothing to do with anything, but if you're a computer nerd like me, you might soon have to change the way you refer to hard drive placement. See the CNN story.

Maybe the Jays should try a Halladay II and send Chen down to Dunedin and try and rebuild his confidence. What a HR column in his stats line!

http://economics.about.com
New signings:

Sandy Alomar Jr. - White Sox - 750K

Kansas City Signs Three

• Brian Anderson
  
• Curtis Leskanic
  
• Joe Randa
  

I can't seem to find the terms of the deal anywhere.

Cheers,

Mike

So what if Chen and Hendrickson both have amazing spring trainings? Are they actually considering 3 lefties in the rotation? I don't like the sounds of that experiment...

Great moves from KC the terms of the deals are Leskanic 1 year at 1.375 million with an option, Anderson is 2 years at 6.5 million, and Randa signed for one year plus an option at 3.75 million. Nice to see a small market that suprised last year make some moves to stay competitive.

Unless there are injuries it's unlikely that both Hendrickson and Chen will get a spot. They'll likely compete with each other and Towers for the fifth spot. But hypothetically, if both Chen and Hendrickson EARNED their spots in the rotation, I don't see any problem whatsoever with having three lefties in the rotation. Oakland didn't seem to mind (Mulder, Zito, Lilly), nor Minnesota down the stretch (Milton, Rogers, Santana) for that matter. How is it any worse than having three righties in the rotation?

Isn't having three lefties a GOOD thing? It forces teams to pull out their platoon lineups more often, and makes getting matchup advantages easier later on.

About the K.C. signings Anderson and Leskanic make sense, but doesn't the deal for Randa seem a little excessive, especially for a small market team. He could probably get that deal somewhere, but it seems to me that the Royals could use that money better elsewhere. That said, I don't know much about the Royals situation to be fair, but I'm not sure that was the smartest signing.

I remember when the Jays had four lefties in the rotation. (1988: Key, Flanagan, Musselman, Cerutti. Stieb was the righty. I guess Clancy had been released by then.) Didn't seem to hurt them any.

Hello, Bauxites.

I wish you a safe and happy Thanksgiving.

Okay, Canada's Thanksgiving Day was last month. I didn't even know that Canada had an official "Thanksgiving Day" until I Googled it just now. Sorry. I'm from Texas.

Well, whatever my Canadian friends might be doing over the next few days, I wish you well.

About the K.C. signings Anderson and Leskanic make sense, but doesn't the deal for Randa seem a little excessive, especially for a small market team.

I'm a bit more surprised at the signing of Anderson for two years to tell you the truth. Gambling for one year that his ERA was for real seems much more logical; is his leftiness really worth two guaranteed years at high dollars while they offer Jose Lima $500K plus incentives?

From the wire story:

"When he was coming up with Atlanta, he was untouchable," Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi said. "Sometimes pitchers are like field-goal kickers. They float around and then, all of a sudden it connects, and everything works out great and you've got something."

Toronto invited Chen to spring training. Ricciardi, who has tracked Chen since Double-A, says he has a chance to win a job in the bullpen.

"I've seen him pitch very good and I've seen pitch awful," Ricciardi said. "You just never know when pitchers are going to get it. He did pitch well in Triple-A his last month."

Ricciardi says he's looking for another starting pitcher and some bullpen help, as well as a shortstop to platoon with Chris Woodward or back him up.

"They [The Twins] have talked to Toronto about Orlando Hudson, as have the Indians, Red Sox and several teams. ..." -- Gammons (Nov. 23)

Who should we believe: PG or JP?

For those of you that have CNBC on cable or satellite, they will be airing an interview with Barry Bonds and Willie Mays today (US Thanksgiving) at 10am and again at 6pm.

The show is called "The Edge"; the interviewer is Carlos Watson.

Well, I don't entirely believe Ricciardi when he says he's no longer interested in trading for prospects. I don't think he's lying, or anything, but I'm sure we could all come up with trade proposals involving prospects coming Toronto's way that Ricciardi would bite on.

The New York Mets are changing. This article describes how: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=klapisch_bob&id=1671722. Jim Duquette, the new GM, seems to be of the Beane/Ricciardi/Sabean type. The immediate consequence for the Jays is that he seems to be interested in Batista and he has more money to spend than JP. In the long term, the Mets look like they will be a fine team in a couple of years, with the development of Reyes, David Wright and Scott Kazmir.

KC almost had to sign Randa has they have no replacement at third for him in their minors until Maier comes up probably in 2006. I think they overspent on Anderson though but they also have Appier signed and he should be ready in May. I dont think Toronto will trade any top prospects like Rios or Magowan but I could see Werth, Jon Ford Griffin or maybe a Chulk getting moved in the right deal. At the GM meetings I think Toronto will be a major player especially if they are shopping Hudson.

BTW, Duquette also has interviewed Bill Livesey, currently an assistant to JP, for the superscout postion left vacent by Bill Singer.

According to BP's new player cards, Carlos was an above-average defensive 1B for the second year in a row. His 'Rate' numbers the last three years (100 is average for position):
2001: 94
2002: 108
2003: 104

Pretty good... I knew he had improved defensively, but didn't think he'd be above average.
Anyone know how Carlos does in other newfangled defensive metrics?

Eric Hinske, on the other hand, had a Rate of 91 in 2002 and an awful 86 in 2003 (replacement level is 90). Ouch.
Other Jay results:
Orlando Hudson: 105 in 2002, 120(!) in 2003
Chris Woodward: 101 in 2002, 99 in 2003.

But look at this:
Vernon Wells: 99 in 2002, 97 in 2003
Shannon Stewart: 101 in 2000, 100 in 2001, 99 in 2002, and in 2003: 105 with Toronto, 102 with Minnesota.

These gave me pause. Keeping in mind that Vernon's being compared to other CFs and Shannon to other LFs, it still seems a little wacky. I'm not willing to discount this stat simply because it doesn't jive with what we thought was true, especially since other results (Hinske, Hudson) seem right in line with our perceptions. What do you guys think? Again, what do other defensive metrics say about these guys?

Thanks for telling us about the BP defensive numbers. These results are more or less consistent with Defensive Win Shares, and my own subjective impressions. I hasten to point out that Vernon Wells is in my view a little above average as a centerfielder, in the same way that Shannon Stewart is a little above average as a leftfielder because of his range.

As for Orlando Hudson, the disparity between his 2002 and 2003 scores is in my view a little off (although it is duplicated in the Defensive Win Shares). If the scores were 110 and 115, I would agree with the results subjectively. I agree with the Hinske ratings, and my impression of the Woodward and Delgado ratings is that they are both a little high.

To be fair, I don't see how Shannon's noodle of an arm can really be taken into account here, and that would certainly lower his rating a bit.
Now that you mention it, I don't think Vernon has done well (that is, significantly better than average) in any metric I've seen. Perhaps he's just so pretty out there that we're blinded to his shortcomings.