Yes, I'm hurting for good headlines today. The Globe & Mail's Jeff Blair chimes in on the Jays' recent flurry of pitching acquisitions with an interesting article and chat with JP Ricciardi. It's quite good, but for a brain cramp that led him to call Adam Peterson a southpaw, and includes this insight from JP: "We were four wins from 90 [last season] with what was, let's face it, a Band-Aid staff." He's right about that, and if a legitimate #2 can be added (names tossed around here have included Kelvim Escobar, Ben Sheets and, if you really stretch the definition, Miguel Batista), the Jays could catch fire. But the article spends more time talking about the help on the way from the minors. JP makes the interesting assumption that while David Bush will open the season at Syracuse, Dustin McGowan should start at Double-A and quickly move up. It's a good reminder that McGowan's just 21 and needn't be rushed. I have a feeling that there's at least one big trade in store for the Jays this winter, and that it will send some prize minor-leaguers out the door. But if such a trade brings back that #2 guy, it's more than worth it. That's why you collect prospects, after all.
I wonder if John Thomson would consider signing with the Jays. Texas is a tough place to hit (hitters' park, poor defence) and JT put up very good numbers last year. I would take him ahead of Batista and Sheets (especially since you'd have to give up some talent to get Sheets).
FWIW....
Player
K9 / BB9 / HR9
Escobar
7.9/3.9/0.7
Sheets
6.4/1.8/1.2
Batista
6.6/2.8/0.6
Thomson
5.6/2.0/1.1
Lilly
7.4/2.9/1.2
Anyone have park effects handy?
Player
K9 / BB9 / HR9
Escobar
7.9/3.9/0.7
Sheets
6.4/1.8/1.2
Batista
6.6/2.8/0.6
Thomson
5.6/2.0/1.1
Lilly
7.4/2.9/1.2
Anyone have park effects handy?
Robert, are you saying that if Thompson and Sheets were both FA's, you'd choose Thompson? Interesting. Quickly why?
Surley by Dec. 7 Escobar will have signed wherever his wallet desired, and if Ricciardi doesn't feel confident in the 'who's who' of Dec. 20 non-tenders, you'd have to think he'll still swing a deal for another Ted Lilly type. A younger, cheap, building block type. I for one would be startled at the idea of JP going to a GM Winter meeting and not coming out of there without making at least one deal. That'd be like walking by the buffet table and not eating any of the shrimp wouldn't it?
Surley by Dec. 7 Escobar will have signed wherever his wallet desired, and if Ricciardi doesn't feel confident in the 'who's who' of Dec. 20 non-tenders, you'd have to think he'll still swing a deal for another Ted Lilly type. A younger, cheap, building block type. I for one would be startled at the idea of JP going to a GM Winter meeting and not coming out of there without making at least one deal. That'd be like walking by the buffet table and not eating any of the shrimp wouldn't it?
No, I'd choose Sheets (given equal salary demands, which is an assumption that doesn't hold). But Milwaukee is going to ask for some serious talent in return in a trade. It looks like Sheets is arb-eligible this year as a super 2, so he might have a higher salary than Thomson this year and almost certainly will in 2005.
I wonder if John Thomson would consider signing with the Jays.
There were serious rumours a year ago about the Jays' pursuit of Thomson; I'm not sure if his eventual decision to sign with Texas was a case of dollars or geography.
If someone considers Toronto "foreign" and prefers a U.S.-based team, there's not much J.P. can do about that, but with open-minded players, he's quite persuasive. Joe Christensen reports in the Baltimore Sun that Bob LaMonte, Pat Hentgen's agent, said his client had other offers that would have paid him up to $1 million more. Whoever becomes the last piece of the rotation puzzle will be someone who really wants to be here.
Whether it's Sheets or someone even closer to free agency, a trade remains an interesting possibility. Waiting to see who is non-tendered makes the most sense, as the anticipated departure of Escobar will give the Jays four of the top 50 or so draft picks, and they don't want to give away their 16th overall selection as compensation for an "A" or "B" free agent.
There were serious rumours a year ago about the Jays' pursuit of Thomson; I'm not sure if his eventual decision to sign with Texas was a case of dollars or geography.
If someone considers Toronto "foreign" and prefers a U.S.-based team, there's not much J.P. can do about that, but with open-minded players, he's quite persuasive. Joe Christensen reports in the Baltimore Sun that Bob LaMonte, Pat Hentgen's agent, said his client had other offers that would have paid him up to $1 million more. Whoever becomes the last piece of the rotation puzzle will be someone who really wants to be here.
Whether it's Sheets or someone even closer to free agency, a trade remains an interesting possibility. Waiting to see who is non-tendered makes the most sense, as the anticipated departure of Escobar will give the Jays four of the top 50 or so draft picks, and they don't want to give away their 16th overall selection as compensation for an "A" or "B" free agent.
The question mark with Sheets right now, of course, is his health: his last two seasons have both been interrupted by arm injuries. So obviously you'd give him the Full Sirotka before signing off on any deal. But making the large assumption that he's sound, I think he'd be the best investment going forward. He's got the best K/BB rate of any of the five Pistol listed, he's still very young (not 26 until July), and he's still improving: he actually performed better against lefties than against righties last year, a switch from 2002. He's primarily a groundball pitcher, and the Brewers were second-last in range factor in the NL (for what that's worth). And because he's arb-eligible, he'd not likely cost much more than Lilly next year; if he blossoms, you consider something longer-term.
Robert's right that the Brewers would demand the moon, though (especially with a guy named Ash in the front office), but they also need to cut salary and collect as many cheap close-to-the-majors players as possible. I'd start with names like Cash, Werth and Sequea and see if quantity could outweigh quality.
Robert's right that the Brewers would demand the moon, though (especially with a guy named Ash in the front office), but they also need to cut salary and collect as many cheap close-to-the-majors players as possible. I'd start with names like Cash, Werth and Sequea and see if quantity could outweigh quality.
I forgot to add that I still like Thomson, but I think the Jays would prefer that a Towers or Hendrickson man the 5th spot in the rotation at close to the league minimum.
I can tell you from where I stand that Ben Sheets is sound. Of this there can be no doubt. Take my word for it.
The Ben Sheets rumor just won't go away, so you'd have to think there's some measure of truth to it,(I believe the Sun had J.P. talking with both the Brewers and Royals last week).
The cost when all is said and done...will be Alex Rios. The question,would you do that deal?
Tough call, as the Marlin's ,Angel's, and A's show great young pitching goes a long way. The fear off-course is an injury to Sheets. It would take a lot off moxie to make this deal. I'd prefer the bulk vs. sheer talent move as well, but I'm not sure that would get it done.
The cost when all is said and done...will be Alex Rios. The question,would you do that deal?
Tough call, as the Marlin's ,Angel's, and A's show great young pitching goes a long way. The fear off-course is an injury to Sheets. It would take a lot off moxie to make this deal. I'd prefer the bulk vs. sheer talent move as well, but I'm not sure that would get it done.
The "Full Sirotka" and "premature optimism" in the same thread. I think I better see my urologist.
I like the decision to put Bush in Syracuse and McGowan in Manchester to start the season. McGowan does need a little more time there, and Manchester does need the starters, after Jesse Harper, at least until somebody emerges from the Dunedin logjam.
Personally, I prefer Batista to Thomson. Batista's road ERA over the last 4 years is 3.4 (3.26 last year); Thomson's is 4.6 (4.68 last year). Arizona might have a better defence than Texas and Colorado, but I don't believe that the difference is that large.
I like the decision to put Bush in Syracuse and McGowan in Manchester to start the season. McGowan does need a little more time there, and Manchester does need the starters, after Jesse Harper, at least until somebody emerges from the Dunedin logjam.
Personally, I prefer Batista to Thomson. Batista's road ERA over the last 4 years is 3.4 (3.26 last year); Thomson's is 4.6 (4.68 last year). Arizona might have a better defence than Texas and Colorado, but I don't believe that the difference is that large.
I like Batista as well. In an earlier thread I mentioned signability perhaps being an advantage for the Jays ,since he would know both Tosca and Patterson(former D-Backs),and being Latino would not have the preference to return to his "home town".
Question. Would you have to give up a draft choice if he had his option declined by his prior team? In essence has he been non-tendered?
Question. Would you have to give up a draft choice if he had his option declined by his prior team? In essence has he been non-tendered?
Question. Would you have to give up a draft choice if he had his option declined by his prior team? In essence has he been non-tendered?
If I'm not mistaken he can still be offered arbitration by the D'Backs, although given that they declined his option you figure that they wouldn't.
So unless someone pulls a Ibanez and signs him prior to 12/7 there won't be any compensation.
If I'm not mistaken he can still be offered arbitration by the D'Backs, although given that they declined his option you figure that they wouldn't.
So unless someone pulls a Ibanez and signs him prior to 12/7 there won't be any compensation.
Thanks.I guess since the cash strapped D-Backs would be afraid of arbitration that answers my question. I'd almost prefer to go the Batista route and let Escobar go,take the draft choices, and move on.The question off course is can we actually sign this guy?
Thomson turned down a two year $5 million offer from the Rangers so he won't necessarily come that cheap. And there's a pretty good chance they'll offer him arbitration on his $1.5 million salary so he might not be a valid target.
I think the Expos budget will once again play a large part in what happens in December. If they decide they can keep Vazquez then guys like Armas or Okha might hit the free market at the non-tender deadline.
I think the Expos budget will once again play a large part in what happens in December. If they decide they can keep Vazquez then guys like Armas or Okha might hit the free market at the non-tender deadline.
the Jays would prefer that a Towers or Hendrickson man the 5th spot in the rotation
The "tentative" April 2004 schedule has so many off days, the Jays won’t need a fifth starter very often -- not at all in the first ten games, and about three starts for the entire month. So all the candidates for swing man/long man will be in the bullpen for a while -- Towers, Hendrickson, Walker and anyone else who makes the 25-man roster. Though it's tempting to let Towers face Baltimore a couple of times in April -- he struck out nine Orioles last time -- a five-man rotation with two lefties is also a nice idea.
I know a lot of people completely dismiss Lurch, but I still think he's a special case who could be a late bloomer, and I'm not so quick to write him off after a rookie season where he was learning the hard way, and ran out of gas in September. If he doesn't show considerable improvement next year, the young guns in the minors will soon pass him, and Mark will either have to adjust to life as a reliever or consider calling it a career. I can't imagine he'd be content as a AAA starter after being a big-leaguer in two sports.
By the way, skipping #5 the first two weeks means Doc gets the Tigers and the Red Sox twice each, home and away, in his first four starts. Something tells me he won't have another winless April.
The "tentative" April 2004 schedule has so many off days, the Jays won’t need a fifth starter very often -- not at all in the first ten games, and about three starts for the entire month. So all the candidates for swing man/long man will be in the bullpen for a while -- Towers, Hendrickson, Walker and anyone else who makes the 25-man roster. Though it's tempting to let Towers face Baltimore a couple of times in April -- he struck out nine Orioles last time -- a five-man rotation with two lefties is also a nice idea.
I know a lot of people completely dismiss Lurch, but I still think he's a special case who could be a late bloomer, and I'm not so quick to write him off after a rookie season where he was learning the hard way, and ran out of gas in September. If he doesn't show considerable improvement next year, the young guns in the minors will soon pass him, and Mark will either have to adjust to life as a reliever or consider calling it a career. I can't imagine he'd be content as a AAA starter after being a big-leaguer in two sports.
By the way, skipping #5 the first two weeks means Doc gets the Tigers and the Red Sox twice each, home and away, in his first four starts. Something tells me he won't have another winless April.
Escobar is not a #2 starter--at least not on AL East clubs that considers themselves Wild Card contenders. Clubs like the Jays pay for results, not potential, and Kelvim just doesn't get it done on a consistent basis. Lillly's just as likely to "break out" this year as Escobar, and just as likely to fail (I can't wait to see BP's PETCO predictions).
If Kelvim was reasonable and would accept 2 yrs, $6 M, he'd be worth the risk. But I think he's a stretch even at the 2 yrs, $10 M contract he reportedly turned down.
If J.P. won't enter the Millwood or Vazquez bidding, I'd rather go the Batista route and secure a couple of good middle relievers instead.
If Kelvim was reasonable and would accept 2 yrs, $6 M, he'd be worth the risk. But I think he's a stretch even at the 2 yrs, $10 M contract he reportedly turned down.
If J.P. won't enter the Millwood or Vazquez bidding, I'd rather go the Batista route and secure a couple of good middle relievers instead.
I understand that the Jays number one priority is a number two starter, but what about the gaping hole on the left side?
We need a shortstop! Mr. Woodward is, for the most part, dependable defensively, but that bat is just awful. I guess it could be worse. I mean, if you really look at it we have one of the less average shortstops in baseball and we need someone like Bordick or a complete Woodward replacement to fill in when Chris decides to crank up the suck. There are Russ Adams and Aaron Hill. Of course, they're years away.
So, here is who I propose...
My first choice would be Rey Ordonez.
Then, if the Jays had a little money (7 mil ?)...
Rich Aurilia.
That is all about that.
As for number two starters...
Sidney Ponson? Wilson Alvarez? What are these two looking for?
We are so screwed for a number two its not even funny...
We need a shortstop! Mr. Woodward is, for the most part, dependable defensively, but that bat is just awful. I guess it could be worse. I mean, if you really look at it we have one of the less average shortstops in baseball and we need someone like Bordick or a complete Woodward replacement to fill in when Chris decides to crank up the suck. There are Russ Adams and Aaron Hill. Of course, they're years away.
So, here is who I propose...
My first choice would be Rey Ordonez.
Then, if the Jays had a little money (7 mil ?)...
Rich Aurilia.
That is all about that.
As for number two starters...
Sidney Ponson? Wilson Alvarez? What are these two looking for?
We are so screwed for a number two its not even funny...
one of the less average shortstops in baseball
What does that even mean?
If you think Woodward's D is ok and you want more offense, do you really feel that Rey Ordonez is going to bring that?
What does that even mean?
If you think Woodward's D is ok and you want more offense, do you really feel that Rey Ordonez is going to bring that?
No kidding, Ordonez usually makes everyone's HACKING MASS team.
I realize some of it is park effect, but in 2002:
Aurilia: 735 OPS
Woodward: 711 OPS
And Woodward was at a 798 OPS the year before.
The Jays have much more pressing needs than SS, and there aren't good alternatives anyway.
I realize some of it is park effect, but in 2002:
Aurilia: 735 OPS
Woodward: 711 OPS
And Woodward was at a 798 OPS the year before.
The Jays have much more pressing needs than SS, and there aren't good alternatives anyway.
Considering Toronto is protecting Woodward, Wilson, Berg, Clark and Pond on the 40man all the while looking for another shortstop buddy for 'Woody', i'm assuming Ricciardi et al are extremely confident they're not going to lose anyone valueable during the Rule 5.
http://www.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/team/tor_team_40manroster.jsp
The Blue Jays' 40 man roster gets finalized today. Link through homepage....
http://www.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/team/tor_team_40manroster.jsp
The Blue Jays' 40 man roster gets finalized today. Link through homepage....
http://www.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/team/tor_team_40manroster.jsp
It means at first I typed "one of the worst shortstops in baseball," but when I checked my facts I found that for one, defensively he's not only not Derek Jeter, but actually one of the best defensive SS in baseball.
However, although Derek is defensively pretty much just a log between second and third that occassionally moves and stops a ball, his defensive defiencies are compensated with his bat. If my shortstop is going to truly be as sucky at batting as Woodward was this past season, I'd make sure I had a backup who could...
1. Play defense almost equally as well.
2. Bat moderately better then him, but someone who couldn't handle too much playing time in the case of Woodwards bat becoming increasingly hot and the fact that the trend in the majors is to go with a crappy defensive liability who can really wallop the ball.
That being said, for the Jays sake, I feel if your team has the offensive talent the Jays do, go with a defensive shortstop who can help insure outs.
Overall, I think you misunderstood that I don't like Woodward... which I can understand due to my lack of explanation.
The case is that I like him a lot, and feel he is truly a strong, well oiled sprocket in this machine we call the Toronto Blue Jays. However, he's only one sprocket and if this sprocket was to lose oil and crack, then I hope you'd want a replacement sprocket that is not cracked, and for the price, a short term replacement that is of even higher quality then that of the original sprocket, but is classified as a replacement sprocket and to only be used for short periods of time...
It's like that tiny replacement wheel that a car has for when you have a flat tire. We all know it can't be used for more then a few hundred km's, but I think we would all feel safer if that tire was a high performance tire with the same km rating as its counterpart.
However, although Derek is defensively pretty much just a log between second and third that occassionally moves and stops a ball, his defensive defiencies are compensated with his bat. If my shortstop is going to truly be as sucky at batting as Woodward was this past season, I'd make sure I had a backup who could...
1. Play defense almost equally as well.
2. Bat moderately better then him, but someone who couldn't handle too much playing time in the case of Woodwards bat becoming increasingly hot and the fact that the trend in the majors is to go with a crappy defensive liability who can really wallop the ball.
That being said, for the Jays sake, I feel if your team has the offensive talent the Jays do, go with a defensive shortstop who can help insure outs.
Overall, I think you misunderstood that I don't like Woodward... which I can understand due to my lack of explanation.
The case is that I like him a lot, and feel he is truly a strong, well oiled sprocket in this machine we call the Toronto Blue Jays. However, he's only one sprocket and if this sprocket was to lose oil and crack, then I hope you'd want a replacement sprocket that is not cracked, and for the price, a short term replacement that is of even higher quality then that of the original sprocket, but is classified as a replacement sprocket and to only be used for short periods of time...
It's like that tiny replacement wheel that a car has for when you have a flat tire. We all know it can't be used for more then a few hundred km's, but I think we would all feel safer if that tire was a high performance tire with the same km rating as its counterpart.
Young mentioned that the Jays have to finalize their 40 man today. If so I note they only have 32 on their roster now (per BlueJays.mlb) Does anyone know what the rules are as to who has to be on the 40 man roster or else is left exposed? Who then is on the bubble for the Jays now?
Some names from another site are--McGowan, Harper,Hanson,Arnold,Griffin.Sequea,Gross. I believe that these are the prime candidates to move onto the list.
Keep in mind also that further FA signings and trade acquisitions may be added to the 40-man in the weeks to come.
I'm surprised they left Berg on the 40-man. Couldn't they have exposed him and hoped someone picked him up? I never thought a million + backup infielder with a guaranteed contract fit our budget.
Young, you are mistaken; there are still 8 final additions to add to the 40 man roster. As of now it stands at 32 and some of these players on the 32 man roster might be non-tendered i.e... Politte, Wilson, Clark and maybe even Berg. The present 32 man roster includes Lilly and Hentgen.
Correction : Berg does have a guaranteed 1 yr contract left and could he not be put on waivers to clear room on the roster. I was not impressed with him last year.
As for the Rios/Sheets rumours, I think this would be a huge mistake. Would anybody trade Vernon Wells for Sheets? Obviously, Rios has a ways to go to get to Wells"s stature but that is the track he is currently on and JP could look mighty foolish doing that trade (possbily as soon as next season). If Rios go, he better bring somebody better and cheaper than Ben Sheets. BTW, he hit his third home run in his fourth game in the PR league yesterday so it appears his power is coming . . . and fast (Simon Pond is also on fire down there, hitting two home runs yesterday with a double i believe. he is batting .364).
As for the Rios/Sheets rumours
Besides spectulating who the Brewers would want for Sheets is there any reliable source that reported this?
Besides spectulating who the Brewers would want for Sheets is there any reliable source that reported this?
I can't believe this... the jays won't offer escobar an extra 2 million/year (7 mil total) and, would prefer to trade a guy that can give us wells like performance for 6 years cheaply for an injury risk. Cheap and stupid. If the jays are anyway spending 19 million dollars on keeping delgado here, they might as well go the extra mile and spend a bit more money to bring back escobar. This is so senseless to me --- If you are anyway spending a lot of money on a superstar for next season, and you can most likely contend by bringing escobar back, why not spend a bit more money.
If you say that there are other possibilities, what other free agent out there can be had for less than $8 Million that can be a #2 starter.
If you say that there are other possibilities, what other free agent out there can be had for less than $8 Million that can be a #2 starter.
"If you are anyway spending a lot of money on a superstar for next season, and you can most likely contend by bringing escobar back, why not spend a bit more money."
I think you answered your own question. The Jays have a very limited budget and have a huge contract in Delgado that they inherited from the previous organization. They can't afford to overpay a guy like Escobar who has definitely not proven that he's a solid number 2.
I think you answered your own question. The Jays have a very limited budget and have a huge contract in Delgado that they inherited from the previous organization. They can't afford to overpay a guy like Escobar who has definitely not proven that he's a solid number 2.
The jays would be stupid to overpay escobar like that. First of all, he isnt worth 7 million a year. Second of all, what are you gonna pay Roy if escobar makes that much cash. Thirdly, If you keep going "that extra mile" youre gonna be $10 million over budget in no time.
I've stated this before, but I think Escobar is an excellent candidate for a 3-year contract. He hasn't pitched a lot of innings in his youth and does not seem to have had any major injuries aside from the mysterious numbness that affected him in 2001. Every pitcher is an injury risk, but to win you have to take a few calculated risks.
If Kelvim wants security, I see no problem with giving him about 14 million over 3 years with a team option for 2007 at about 6 million or a modest buyout.
If he wants more than that, then it's time to offer arbitration. He may find that the offers on the open market aren't all that generous and he may ever accept arbitration.
If Kelvim wants security, I see no problem with giving him about 14 million over 3 years with a team option for 2007 at about 6 million or a modest buyout.
If he wants more than that, then it's time to offer arbitration. He may find that the offers on the open market aren't all that generous and he may ever accept arbitration.
Robert, I agree with you. I think even a three year, $15 million deal with innings pitched incentives added would be a very fair offer. The guy is a 28 year old free agent and just came off a year where he made $4 million. $10 million over two years isn't going to get it done and I'd much rather solidify a four man rotation than spend that money on bits and pieces that likely won't have near as much chance at success.
I think the way things are going though the Jays are going to take the draft picks (hoping Boston isn't the winning bid) and try to trade for someone using one of their top prospects as bait. Personally I'd rather keep all of our hitting prospects to mitigate the possible departure of Delgado and just offer Escobar a market value contract. And that could very well be the wrong decision but I think this team as composed with Escobar in the rotation and one or two good bullpen arms added has a realistic shot at approaching 93 or 94 wins without much sacrifice to the future other than Escobar blowing up.
I think the way things are going though the Jays are going to take the draft picks (hoping Boston isn't the winning bid) and try to trade for someone using one of their top prospects as bait. Personally I'd rather keep all of our hitting prospects to mitigate the possible departure of Delgado and just offer Escobar a market value contract. And that could very well be the wrong decision but I think this team as composed with Escobar in the rotation and one or two good bullpen arms added has a realistic shot at approaching 93 or 94 wins without much sacrifice to the future other than Escobar blowing up.