JP was on the FAN in Toronto this morning. I only caught the last half of it though. He suggested that Escobar is still a possibility, even with Hentgen and Lilly joining the team. If he signs, the rotation would then be HLH, Hentgen, Lilly, Escobar and Josh Towers. Nothing big there.

He also said that if Escobar signs somewhere else, Toronto will get two draft picks, inferring that they will indeed offer arbitration.

JP was on the Fan this morning. He was saying that they wanted to keep Escobar, that Escobar wanted a two year contract at a higher salary, that he likes Toronto, that he likes the way the club is going, that he likes the pitching coach. So he was, publicly at least, hopeful that Escobar would be back.

Then he said that if Escobar was going for the money, that Toronto would not be the highest bidder. So he positioned it that if Escobar left it would be because he wanted the money more than a good opportunity. He added that the if Escobar did go, the Jays would get two extra picks and would have 4 of the top 50 picks.

Marsden asked him about Griffin's column which stated that JP made the trade to build up goodwill before Escobar leaves town. As part of his predictable response JP added "I don't have all the right answers, unlike Richard Griffin".

Spicol, my understanding is also that if Escobar signs somewhere before Dec. 7, the compensation picks become automatic -- in other words, the Jays don't need to offer arbitration before then in order to ensure they'll get the draft picks.

Jordan...true enough. But the inference was more, "we're going to get the picks no matter what" than "we're going to get them if..."

After reading Griffin's column, it can be concluded that he is truly an idiot. He conveniently omits mentioning the money still available to address holes in the rotation and pen and somehow makes getting Hentgen and Lilly for no more than 4mil + Kielty sound like a bad move. Oh no, but he traded with Beane, it doesn't count!

God forbid we have a GM with the ability to have good relationships with other GMs so he can make deals that benefit the team. Something tells me that if we aquired Rich Harden for Josh Phelps, Griffin would be squealing about how Beane did it because J.P. pleasures him so well in bed. Really Richard Griffin, you get paid to be a hack? Nice work if you can get it.

Let's face it, it can't hurt the jays even if escobar accepts the arbitration. He made 3.9 M last year, and arbitration is going to net escobar 5.5M at most, and probably only 5M. While escobars performance was pretty good as a starter, the arbitration people would at the very least look at the full years performance, and likely last year aswell. This past season his record was 13 - 9, with 4 saves and a blown save also. his era for last year was 4.29 almost matching his era from the year before. The year before he had 8 blown saves and 38 saves. No better than decent numbers if you ask me. There is nothing there to merit a huge award, so really there is no reason to not offer arbitration. I think the reason it hasn't been offered yet, is because they would rather have Kelvim for 2 years at 5M per, knowing they have till december 7th( i think) before it has to be offered.

A late entry from Richard Griffin, who might or might not be in favour of the deals; it's really hard to tell. Rich is in a particularly negative state of mind today, framing the Hentgen and Lilly deals as simply pre-emptive PR to guard against Kelvim Escobar's departure. Funny, I just assumed JP was upgrading the rotation like the press kept complaining he should do, but I guess I'm insufficiently Machiavellian in this respect. Griff also twice makes puns on Ted Lilly's name, another egregious transgression. Overall, I think we can safely say that Christmas cards will not be exchanged between the Griffin and Ricciardi households this winter. Or next. Or the one after that.

I know Boxers love to bash R-Griff, but were you reading the same Griffin column I was?

Seemed pretty even-handed to me.

And there was this from Griffin:
Lilly to pad the rotation

Tee-hee. Man, how did the headline writers miss that for at least a subhead?

My "were you reading" comment was to Lurker's post, not Jordan's -- looks like we were writing at the same time.

If it is possible to dispassionately hate someone's guts, then yes, the article is even-handed.

All last year, Ricciardi told media and fans that he does not expect his team to reach the post-season until '05. But to some friends in the media, he extended that prediction of mediocrity to '06.

I would ask Griffin, if they get 95 or more wins and miss the post season, does that still make them mediocre?

I don't know if anybody was listening to the Fan590 last night, but they did have Wilner on (who made a great call on the Hentgen signing about a week ago--that it would occur following the AL MVP announcement) and he mentioned again that JP was looking at Ben Sheets of the Brewers.

An earlier guest also said that he was hearing that the Angels would probably have Kelvim signed within the week.

Although it sounds like Escobar might be signing in the next week, the Jays have to allocate about $5 million of their money to him until a decision is made one way or another.

If the Jays were to sign a pitcher, say Batista, for $4 million, and offered Escobar arbitration and he accepted they'd be in a bit of a pickle in terms of both # of starters and with their budget.

So it doesn't look like the Jays will be making another move for a starter until the earlier of Escobar signing with a team or accepting/declining arbitration. This could drag out until Dec 20th, which may or may not be a good thing depending on what else happens in the market.

Pistol, if (as in your example) Batista were signed for $4 million and Escobar accepts arbitration and is awarded $5 million, the solution will be to trade one of them, which should not be difficult. They could also potentially keep both and trade Ted Lilly, for example.

I think one reason that Lilly and Hentgen were brought in early, is to give the Jays better leverage in their bargaining position. A player negotiating with a team that has three open slots in their starting rotation is going to take a very different attitude to negotiations than he will with a team that has one place open. It's another reason why I think the early splash of signings and trades by Toronto (four good players... far more than what any other team has done) is shrewd... it maximizes the team's negotiating position, and strengthens the perception of the team around baseball.

I don't expect further moves until after the Dec. 20 deadline, unless something too good to pass up comes along. The Jays are likely to sit on the $15 million or so currently in the budget for now and work with Roy Halladay's people on a long-term deal, so that they can get a firmer understanding of where they will end up on the budget front before plunging back into the free-agent market.

I would ask Griffin, if they get 95 or more wins and miss the post season, does that still make them mediocre?

Unfortunately, in Toronto, yes.

No time for a detailed comment, but I'm a happy camper this morning. Though I know Gitz is not a Lilly booster (understatement intentional) this could work out very well for the Jays. Both Hentgen and Lilly enjoyed remarkable turnarounds in the second half, one (probably) because he was fully recovered from elbow surgery, the other (maybe) because he stopped butting heads with his coaches. That may sound like Lidle 2.0 and 2.1, but there's reason for optimism. The Jays don't need four 20-game winners, they need league-average pitching, and they are getting there.

The idea that these moves were strictly to pacify fans about the impending loss of Kelvim the Underachiever smacks of paranoia. In the Globe and Mail, Jeff Blair breaks down the acquisitions without the sarcasm and innuendo that is the trademark of Mr. Griffin. Blair also reports that Roy Halladay has new representation.

"We're still in the talking stage with Doc, but talks have gone well and I'm hoping we'll get a better chance to talk to ownership early next month," Ricciardi said.

From the Griffin article:

"Ricciardi, a creature of habit, tapped into his two favourite sources of talent: (a) the second tier of free agency, for Hentgen, and (b) A's general manager and best friend Billy Beane for Lilly.

Hentgen, a former Cy Young winner and SkyDome fan favourite, overcame several Jays trends in signing with Toronto: (a) he's not from Worcester, Mass; (b) he's never led his league in losses and (c) he has never been a member of the A's."

"There is a reason Ricciardi was in a hurry to sign the popular Hentgen and the yet-to-flower Lilly, who earned $335,000 (all figures U.S.) last season. Call it a pre-emptive strike against impending bad publicity over the loss of Escobar.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. As such, Ricciardi was forced to think about the fan reaction after the talented free-agent starter opts out. The Jays have a two-year deal for $10 million on the table for Escobar. They're finding it's not nearly enough."

"The Jays will now head to the winter meetings, the second week of December in New Orleans, with a rotation of Roy Halladay, Lilly, Hentgen, Josh Towers and Mark Hendrickson. The closer heading south is Aquilino Lopez. Hmm!"

It's not difficult to spot the agenda in an article littered with so many baseless cheap shots. His tone is obvious.

Yes Richard, J.P. is friends with Beane and trades with him. Last time I checked trades involving Beane brought us the ROY, Arnold and Lilly and sent out Koch, Lopez and Keilty.

Yes Richard, Hentgen is not from Massachusetts, very alert of you to notice. And no, he isn't Tanyon Strurtze and hasn't played for the A's! Brilliant.

Richard, I was under the impression the reason to improve the rotation was to improve the rotation, not to prevent backlash from losing Escobar. I guess if Escobar signed we wouldn't have aquired Hentgen and Lilly at low cost, because that makes sense.

Richard, I didn't know the organization was desperate considering we're in good salary position with a young winning team and great farm system.

Richard, hmm! There's still ample money available to address rotation and bullpen issues. But your harping on how J.P. and Beane are lovers must have put you over your copy limit...we know if it hadn't you wouldn't have forgetten to mention this.

Richard, you are a giant hack.

Well, Lurker, he's nothing if not consistent...

Pistol, if (as in your example) Batista were signed for $4 million and Escobar accepts arbitration and is awarded $5 million, the solution will be to trade one of them, which should not be difficult. They could also potentially keep both and trade Ted Lilly, for example.

I could be wrong, but I thought that you couldn't trade a player you signed as a free agent for a certain amount of time (few months?)?

I could be wrong, but I thought that you couldn't trade a player you signed as a free agent for a certain amount of time (few months?)?

I believe you have to keep a free agent for 6 months, although I think if the player agrees to a deal, he could be moved before then

Again Griffin fails to do some elementary research,

"The timing of the moves might seem unusual to some observers. Hentgen reportedly had more than a dozen teams interested and could have waited for a two-year offer."

The timing isn't unusual at all, Hengten's agent wanted only a one year deal as he feels his client's value will rise considerably given a healthy year of pitching.

Griffin also seems to casually dismiss(depending on the structure of Halliday's long term contract) the remaining 7-9 million alloted budgetary dollars if Escobar does not re-sign.

I wish JP would say in public what he most certainly says in private, that Richard Griffin is an idiot with an agenda.

if (as in your example) Batista were signed for $4 million and Escobar accepts arbitration and is awarded $5 million, the solution will be to trade one of them, which should not be difficult.

Since he'd have signed as a free agent, the CBA says that Batista couldn't be traded until June 15th, unless he gave permission. (Article XX.B(6)(a))

I'm not exactly clear on whether or not Escobar could be traded before the following June. My assumption is that he could, despite his being a free agent, because his contract has never been assigned to another club. Can one of you lawyer types clear that up?

Still though, Craig's right. Signing Batista and Escobar would lead to another trade and if a trade couldn't be made, the rotation would be HLH, Escobar, Batista, Lilly, Hentgen, which wouldn't be too shabby at all, despite having little money to improve the pen.

Halladay winning the Cy Young this year could literally cost the Jays millions. His agent would be a fool not to pimp that during the meetings. Let's hope Roy takes the home-town discount with the lure of playing for, eventually/hopefully, a contending team with a four-five year window of winning a WS title.

I should add that Halladay would play for a contender that would be assembled, essentially, from ground zero (or perhaps ground one or two), rather than a contender assembled greenly, such as our good friends the Yankees and Red Sox.

I have a much higher expectation from Hentgen than from Lilly. Lilly's ERA of 4.34 in Oakland with that defence behind him translates to an ERA of about 5 in Toronto. His hit, walk and HR ratios were consistent with his ERA of 4.34 in Oakland. Lilly's performance in Oakland was significantly behind Cory Lidle's and Oakland had an even better defence in '03 than in '02 courtesy of Mark Ellis and Eric Byrnes.

Like Hentgen, Lilly had a late season improvement in September and October. But I can't read too much into starts of six innings or less against Tampa Bay, Anaheim (two good) and Seattle (one good, one bad), and one fine 7 inning post-season start against Boston.

I know that Lilly has a reputation of being a pitcher with significant potential, but he really hasn't shown much at either the major or minor league level and he will be 28 shortly.

I do like Billy Beane's moves over the last 2 days. The biggest weakness on the team from last year was lack of offensive production from the outfield and first base. His team now looks like this: OF- Kotsay, Byrnes and Kielty, IF-Chavez, Crosby, Ellis and Hatteberg (?) DH-Durazo rotation- Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Harden and ?. Despite the loss of Tejada, I make them the early line favorite to win the American League pennant. It shouldn't be too difficult for Beane to acquire a first baseman to replace and improve on Hatteberg cheaply, and this might leave him with enough money to re-sign Foulke.

You forgot about Jermaine Dye.

Well Richard Griffin certainly lacks commen sense. If you are about to lose your #2 starter in Escobar of course JP is going to address pitching. Thats common sense. Does Griffin not realize that it is only November. Plenty of time to improve the bullpen see who is non-tendered and still improve the rotation. JP still has some great trade commodities in the minors and even at the big league level. As far as his comments that JP was forced to think about fan reaction if we lose Escobar, does Griffin not know its November and fans in toronto only care about the medicore Leafs!!! JP dosent strike me as a General Manager who does anything for the fans only for the team.

BB moves were okay but not spectacular. An outfield of Kotsay, Kielty and Dye still has many questions. Can Dye regain his form? Can Kielty finally prove he can put up numbers every day? They are currently weak at catcher and first base. Also Crosby might not be ready for the everyday job yet. If Foulke signs elsewhere that leaves a hole as well in the bullpen. Come December we will see who does what, Seattle still looks solid and is about to sign Ibanez, and the Angels are talking about making a big splash in free agency. Though no one has the Big 3.

I have the total reverse opinion. I never expected anything from Lidle and thought they should have traded him when he had early success. Lilly on the other hand I have been promoting for a long time. He had always had a decent K/inning ratio and those types of pitchers have always seemed to have the most success in Toronto (Clemens, Guzman, Ward, Henke, Halladay, etc.) also Lilly is a left-hander, we needed someone better than Hendrickson as a lefty in the rotation. I have high expectations on him and usually I'm the last one to put high expectations on anyone.

As for trading a player that agrees to arbitration, it can be done. Just think back to the Jays trading David Segui after he accepted arbitration.

As for trading a player that agrees to arbitration, it can be done. Just think back to the Jays trading David Segui after he accepted arbitration.

I think you're right...but did he have to agree to the trade?

Lilly's K rates are fine, but his BBs and HRs are a little cause for concern with me.

No Segui did not have to agree to the trade. He also did not have to sign the contract with the Jays.

As for Lilly, I don't think his K rates are a cause of concern, he walked only 58 hitters in almost 180 innings and with almost 150 k's thats a great K/bb ratio.

Lilly has also shown flashes of brilliance as shown in his 2 hit complete game against the Sox during the playoffs. And if I remember correctly the Sox have the best offence in baseball.

As for Lilly, I don't think his K rates are a cause of concern

That's supposed to read I don't think his BB rates are a cause for concern

Congratulations to the Blue Jays! As I said yesterday I dont think Kielty represents the same value as Lilly. I guess the 'dealing from strength' premise is what migth convince me of the sanity of the trade. With Harden, Mulder, Zito and Hudson, Lilly could end up as a fifth strater which even if he pitches great would leave him less valuable and needed. Dye finally fully healthy and in a contract year might actually wake up (but I said that last year as well...) and I guess Kotsay will be average offensively and not a sinkhole. I am not too up on Kielty. Any of you Toronto fans impressed from seing him play for half a year?

Note for Batters Box fantasy players? You wanna trade for Lilly as a keeper now that he is a Jay?

I think, not sure, that you can trade a player who has accepted arbitration, but you can't trade a player you've signed from another organization as a free agent, unless that player consents. Craig's the rulebook guy; he should have a better idea.

I should add that Segui-for-Fullmer (via the Expos) was one of Gord's really good moves.

I forgot about Jermaine Dye, and perhaps more importantly, I forgot about his salary.

Just so you know, I don't think the Kotsay trade actually happened. As Moneyball suggested I think Billy Beane used the media (Peter Gammons) to put out a false rumour. Don't expect Kotsay to be an A, especially now that they have Kielty.

You know if the Jays had traded Kielty for Tim Hudson then Richard Griffin would complain that Hudson only had two years to go until free agency and that the Jays could have signed Escobar to about the same dollars without giving up Kielty. This is his act and it's just best to smile and nod and read it for the entertainment value.

By the way, Spicol, I think Jordan is right about Escobar. I think Article XX(6) applies to players who sign as free agents only... in other words, those who achieve free agency. If Escobar is offered arbitration and accepts, he is not a free agent since he has been reserved.

Whoops... that's actually not right. That'll teach me to go and read the damn thing before I talk about it.

The June 15 restriction applies to all free agents who elect within the election period. Spicol is right. Escobar is currently a free agent regardless of whether he chooses to accept arbitration, so it would apply now that the period has passed.

However, a trade could be made with the player's consent.

The hold-up in the Kotsay trade might be that the A's are working on getting Kendall with the Pirates picking up 22 million of the contract (according too Lee Sinins). If that happens I gues Billy is a genius again.

Just a few comments...

First off, the day Toronto actually cares about baseball is the day Toronto gets decent baseball writers. Griffin isn't even a hack, he's the lowest of the low, he's a baseball writer in Toronto. On the other hand, I do not mind Mr. Baker. What completely surprises me is that Richard is a PR man himself, maybe not a good one as he is a Toronto baseball writer with a hardon for hate, but still a PR man who is saying that the Lilly/ Hentgen moves are public relation moves.
Maybe we are all niave to think Toronto HAD a serious pitching problem and some major holes have been filled? Only Griffin knows.

Second, I feel the Doc has a very good chance of remaining a Jay and signing on the cheap(er). One has to remember that he admits he would not be where he is today without Toronto and the whole three years from Single A to Cy Young experience. Maybe this may help sway him? I mean, come on, its all about the memories man, its all about the memories! Unfortunately, this is just one man who is sitting at home playing GM's opinion.

It shouldn't be too difficult for Beane to acquire a first baseman to replace and improve on Hatteberg cheaply

I'm not sure that he intends to (though of course he should), having re-signed Hatteberg to a two-year extension late last season.

Griffin's 'work' deserves neither to be read, nor to be commented on, in my view. I know I didn't bother reading his keen insights this morning.

Even if the Kotsay deal goes through, I still think the A's offence is lacking:

• Byrnes is a terrific 4th outfielder in my view, but not more
• Dye hasn't had a fully healthy, productive season since the A's acquired him


• Kielty and Kotsay are question marks offensively, and the former in particular is going to an inferior hitter's park. The both could be decent, but I don't see either one putting up an OPS much above .820 or so


• Tejada and Hernandez are gone and replaced by inferior hitters

I have as much respect for Billy Beane as anyone, but he has not done a good job of rebuilding this offence thus far (granted you don't just replace Giambi and Tejada like that). His 2002 draft, which was heavy on college hitters, has also largely disappointed up until now. Would Gitz or any other A's fans more in the know than I certainly am care to comment?

Nick Swisher who was taken in that draft is a hot prospect who is likely to get a call up at the end of this year and hopefully be ready to start by next year. Jeremy Brown Time looks to be almost upon us if indeed Hernandez is gone, whether this is a good thing or not no one can really tell since he is said to be in better shape than he was in college but is still a downgrade over Hernandez defensively. I hope for everyones sake that Byrnes isnt pressed into full time duty again, he seems to be a not as good Darin Erstad - he plays full out but is prone to hurting himself and unexplainable slumps. Dye has the potential to be the biggest A's dissapointment after Long, he's the highest paid player on the team and produced almost nothing last year. Kotsay is an improvement over Singleton which isn't saying much either and our new stud SS went about 1-15 in September. The A's offense is going to be horrible unless Dye turns it around and some people seriously step up (*ahem* Mr. Chavez). Look for the A's to be and AL version of the Dodgers or some such

You know. I'm going to have to disagree with the Griffin-bashers here. That's not going as far to say that I agree with Griffin but I can't agree with those in here calling Griffin a 'hack' or this article 'tripe.' I read enough Griffin articles that when presented with a new one, I'll already be angry before getting to the heart of his argument. For this article, I've tried to parse his argument and look at it objectively. Here's a bit of what Mr. Griffin writes:

...J.P. Ricciardi has replaced 40 per cent of his '03 starting rotation...In so doing, he is admitting through actions rather than words that he considers free agent Kelvim Escobar already gone.

While I don't agree that the signings raise a white flag on signing Escobar, it is true that it is no longer as imperative to sign him. It is also likely that he'll find a 3 year contract for more money elsewhere.

Ricciardi...tapped into his two favourite sources of talent: (a) the second tier of free agency, for Hentgen, and (b) A's general manager and best friend Billy Beane for Lilly.

This is true. You can read this as a Griffin attack on Ricciardi, as I did initially, or you can read it objectively. JP has traded with Billy more often than with any other GM and sees value in certain second-tier free agents.

Hentgen...overcame several Jays trends in signing with Toronto: (a) he's not from Worcester, Mass; (b) he's never led his league in losses and (c) he has never been a member of the A's.

Here, (a) and (b) obviously refer to Tanyon Sturtze. The signing of one player can't seriously be called a trend. (c) however is undeniably a trend of the JP Blue Jays.

There is a reason Ricciardi was in a hurry to sign...Hentgen and...Lilly. Call it a pre-emptive strike against impending bad publicity over the loss of Escobar.

Hentgen and Lilly create a bit of good publicity while Escobar leaving will create bad publicity--at least among casual fans. JP's reasons aren't primarily PR. However I'd be surprised if it didn't cross JP's mind that people in Toronto want to see Hentgen again. I don't understand why Griffin thinks a sports team playing the PR game is a bad thing.

The Jays will now head to the winter meetings...with a rotation of Roy Halladay, Lilly, Hentgen, Josh Towers and Mark Hendrickson. The closer heading south is Aquilino Lopez. Hmm!

Again this is true if Escobar doesn't sign. I don't know what the Hmm is about. I could make a crack that 75% through an article is when Richard Griffin begins to think---but I won't. I suppose Griffin doesn't see the existing pitching staff as good enough going in the winter meetings and you know what? It isn't. However, it's lucky for us that no regular season games are scheduled around the winter meetings.

Some think Griffin has an agenda. I think this is true. Griffin demands more from the team. Sometimes the demands are unreasonable but as a fan we should be demanding more. Bauxites however often take the team's word as the truth. JP says the payroll will be 52M next year and we put on our stathead hats and try to devise the best team possible with that constraint. Why as fans, can't we demand more? Why can't we demand a Bartolo Colon as a co-ace? Is it because the team says it's losing money? Do we believe this and why? I've probably lost all of you two tangents ago. So I'll end this with my original point. There is more truth in what Richard Griffin has written here than what he has been given credit for.

Nick Swisher appears to be far from the finished article to me. He hit .296 / .418 / .550 in the California League, but .230 / .324 / .380 after being promoted to the Texas League. Seems like a 2005 ETA at best.

On another note...Why as fans, can't we demand more? Why can't we demand a Bartolo Colon as a co-ace? Is it because the team says it's losing money? Do we believe this and why?

1. Because the payroll will be $52 million whether we like it or not.
2. Because we can never know what the books actually look like.
3. Because we don't care if Ted Rogers loses money or not. The point is, HE cares, and it's his club.

I'm not interested in complaining about the team's budget. I have much more fun ways to waste my time and my breath.

Griffin has launched so many below-the-belt attacks and papers his columns with so much innuendo and outright lies that he has no credibility left, even if he actually writes something with a hint of logic or truth to it. How many times do you return to a business that you feel has repeatedly lied to you? There are enough good baseball analysts out there (or on this site, for that matter) that I have absolutely no use for Richard Griffin whatsoever.

Griffin demands more from the team

I'm sorry, this isn't the case. When his buddies were in charge, Griffin praised the front office even though the team was not as good or as promising as it has been since.

Is it because the team says it's losing money? Do we believe this and why?

The team is losing money, hand over fist. This isn't accounting tricks... though the extent of the real dollar losses isn't known precisely. But they certainly are losing money, and one look at the Rogers annual report will convince you of that.

They have a terrible relationship with a stadium that is a long way from ideal, they inherited a high payroll of nonentities, ticket revenue is way down from the salad days.

As for Griffin's article, I'll just say that in saying this : "he is admitting through actions rather than words that he considers free agent Kelvim Escobar already gone" he's calling Ricciardi a liar.

By the way, if Griffin was so concerned about the state of rotations going into the winter meetings, wouldn't he have pointed out that his Halladay-Lilly-Hentgen-Towers-Hendrickson rotation is better than what the Yankees have?

New York's "winter meetings rotation" is

Mike Mussina
Jose Contreras
Jeff Weaver
Brandon Claussen
Jorge DePaula

Of course Escobar isn't coming back, however I don't think that these signings emphasize this fact. I think we knew all along the Kelvim was long gone and the following were the clear signs:

- Kelvim in the past only ever wanted to sign one year deals so that he wouldn't risk missing a big payday.
- Kelvim and the Jays tried to work out a deal and it became apparent that the Jays offer wasn't enough money or long enough. Talks broke off and Kelvim became a free agent.
- The Jays management doesn't overpay for players and also pays based on performance rather than potential.
- Many teams have expressed interest in Escobar.

Also I'm not sure what kind of bad PR will be created if Escobar leaves. I mean aren't we talking about the guy who never lived up to his potential and who is routinely involved in shady activities off the field?

Craig, I agree with your take on the Griffin article. One small nit. Did I just dream that Claussen went to Cincy? That's a serious question and not a shot. I was out of the country for a stretch around the trade deadline.

WOOOOO! Go Jays! Lighten up, Jays fans, you just added two real starters to a staff that had *1*. Down with the Evil Empire! Jays in '04!

And if the Red Sox hire Terry Fing Francona as manager the Jays will have second place (at a minimum) locked up!! Heck, my Os will finish ahead of a Francona-led Sox team.

Right you are, Nigel. The one credible Yankee pitching prospect was swapped for Aaron Boone.

However, the Yankees *could* have a healthy Jon Lieber for 2004.

And I would add that Pettitte looks very likely to return. But until he signs, that's a weakish rotation.

Claussen is now with Cincinnati. Replace in rotation with Jon Lieber.

Absolutely right, everyone.

Well really the Jays had two real starters for the last 4 months of the season. Escobar counts as a real starter posting a winning record, high strikeout rate, and an ERA under 4.00 on a team that didn't have the best pitcher's park or defence going. He's a rung or two above either Lilly or Hentgen though obviously still a couple of rungs below Doc. So rather than going from 1 real arm to 3 real arms, I think it's more like going from 1 real ace and a #2 to 1 real ace, a #3 and a #4.

Acquiring Hentgen and Lilly will mean a lot less for the Jays win total if Escobar's slot isn't adequately replaced. Hentgen and Lilly together might provide enough of an improvement to the middle and backend slots to make up for losing him but that would only place the Jays at treading water rather than improving. They need one more starter of considerable significance, whether that's Escobar or someone else, before we can say they're really better.

If adding a third year to the deal means Escobar stays then I would seriously consider doing it; I think it would sew up 90 wins for the Jays in '04 and provide enough experience in the front three (Hentgen, Escobar, Lilly) that the prospects can be eased slowly into the back of the rotation over the next two years and not be relied upon to pitch above the expectations of rookie hurlers. I also don't think any free agent or trade acquisition the Jays are likely to make by spring training is going to have the current ability or the high ceiling that Escobar has.

The only problem I have with Toronto's current stance is that they've put their foot down and pretty much said they aren't going over two years and $10 million, despite indications that other teams will do so. That to me IS kind of like letting him go on purpose. If your offer is 2 years at $10 million and other offers are 3 years at $18 million then it's not that Escobar is money motivated; it's that the offers aren't in the same ballpark. At the very least an attainable option for the third year (a certain number of innings pitched) should be added to the deal and then I'd be convinced they really tried for him. $11 million for two years plus a $6 million option is very reasonable for a solid starter. If he stays healthy he'll be winning 14 to 16 games for some team out there.

Rich and Craig have hit the nail spot on.

I feel the majority of us are just pissed that we must read Griffin's biased, anger-filled, 'articles' if we want any sort of opinion based reading material concerning the Blue Jays. In fact, the only other regular sources that I've come across that's not primarily based on some Associated Press report is what I get on Batters Box and Sportsnet.

The fact still remains that Griffin is a hack and that although filled with 'facts,' the article is still tripe.

I say 'facts' because in reality, none of us, nor Griffin know the truth. I mean, it is a fact that the Toronto Blue Jays pitching this past season was just dreadful to watch. Over the past few years I've only grimmiced when the Jays closer came out of the bullpen, but this season I can honestly say I had anxiety attacks no matter who came out of the gate.

However, when JP makes TWO great moves considering our ball clubs cash restraints, JP and the moves are attacked by a creditable Toronto writer as strictly PR moves and not moves that are going to GREATLY improve the Jays largest weakness, the pitching.

Out of the entire article the only see a few facts. (Not including JP trends, because in reality JP really only does sign players who were once involved with the A's) What I do see are a few of educated guesses...

1. Escobar is gone. As far as I am concerned Escobar is still a free agent and although RUMOURS say otherwise, could still resign. And although we did sign two decent starting pitchers, we still need a number two starter. That starter may or may not be Escobar, but whoever it is they will recieve much praise for coming to or sticking with Toronto, equaling positive PR for the Jays.

2. The A's are JP's favourite sources of talent. My favourite place to sit at Skydome are the red seats behind home plate where you get free hotdogs. However, I feel more comfortable sitting in the Skydeck due to both pricing and that I know more people there. My point being that I am sure if JP had a choice he would make a club richer in prospects then the A's his feeding ground. However, he's friends with Beane and the players that Beane offers are not only decent, but cheap. My point, just because he trades with the A's, doesn't mean that it was his first choice.

My greatest concern is that Griffin just doesn't mention the positive aspects of Tuesdays events and in a city that doesn't need baseball, that's just dreadful. He's basically telling the average sports fan to get pissed at Jays for letting go of Escobar. That's my take on it.

On a lighter note, here's a challenge for Bauxites. Bill James said in about 1984 that Bill Russell would play shortstop for the "all-initial" team. The Babe would pitch and bat clean-up. He also thought that the JC team would be awfully good.

Now, it looks to me like the RC team would pretty tough: Clemens, Campanella, Carty, Carew, Ray Chapman, Cey, Colavito, Clemente and Roger Cedeno (I guess).

The BB team would have Bonds, Bonds, Bobby Bonilla and Bill Buckner, and a heckuva GM, but I can't fill out the rest of the lineup off hand.

Any other nominations for the all-initial team?

I was upset by Griffen's article but also can see Christian's point. I think the problem is not that Griffen challenges Jays management. Certainly any good journalist should do so. Our media is awash with carefully drafted sound bites given by the protagonists of our world and our media does little to analyse them. There is not enough critical analysis.

Having said this I think Griffen is out of line not for the issue he raises but for the way he does so. It is really the difference between sitting around the table with some friends or on this site talking about baseball or having one of your friends reach across that table and whack you in the head in due to you negative personal comments. In Griffen's case I can only assume he has little choice but to ask for a table for one because noone would put up with his act in person.

I suggest we not put up with him in the media either. I have emailed the editor at the Star and idicated I do care for Griffen's comments, that they were unfair and accordingly I will not be buying their rag as long as he is around. I suggest others fed up with him do the same.

http://economics.about.com
LINEUP

C Mike MacFarlane
1B Mark McGwire
2B Mark McLemore
SS Marty Marion
3B Marty McManus
OF Minnie Minoso
OF Mickey Mantle
OF Mike Marshall

BENCH

C Milt May
UT Melvin Mora
UT Mike Mordecai
UT Mario Mendoza (I had to include him solely on notoriety)
PH Manny Mota
OF Matt Mieske
OF Mike Mitchell

PITCHING

SP Mike Mussina
SP Matt Morris
SP Mark Mulder
SP Mike Morgan
SP Mike Moore

RP Mike Marshall
RP Matt Mantei
RP Mike Maddux
RP Mike Myers
RP Mike Magnante

I'm probably missing some decent guys, but there's my team.

MM

The only problem I have with Toronto's current stance is that they've put their foot down and pretty much said they aren't going over two years and $10 million, despite indications that other teams will do so. That to me IS kind of like letting him go on purpose. If your offer is 2 years at $10 million and other offers are 3 years at $18 million then it's not that Escobar is money motivated; it's that the offers aren't in the same ballpark.

Just because someone else offers Escobar more doesn't mean he's worth that much.

And if Escobar signs with someone else for more money or more years there's no reason to say he's selfish, etc.. because of it. It's one of my pet peeves about the average fan.

The question is how much is he worth to the Jays. Not $7 million or $8 million per season for 3 years to be sure. But the guy is a free agent; you have to expect to pay some premium for his services.

I will defer to JP in matters of handling the budget because he seems quite good at it and if he and Law firmly believe that's as much as Escobar is worth to them then I will trust that it's true. That money being saved on Escobar then had better be spent well because the market for pitchers who will fit the Jays' needs beyond him is rather sparse to say the least.

On a funny note, Tom Gordon is looking for $5 million per year. He reportedly turned down $8 million over two years from the ChiSox. How can a 35 year old reliever with a large history of health problems possibly afford to do such things?

At first blush, I'd say that the JB's, JM's and HW's look promising.

I never read any of Griffin's articles during previous ownership. So it's news to me that he treated the old ownership as his buddies. From postings from other Bauxites I was under the impression that Griffin was never happy with the way the team was run. I can only judge Griffin on his recent work so I don't expect him to praise the Jays at every turn. Heck, I don't even expect balanced coverage. If I want to know what great moves JP made I'll read every other paper. The lack of balanced coverage is probably a failing of Griffin but he does remind me that it isn't wrong to expect more and it isn't wrong to expect it now--not in 2005.

Craig,

I'm pouring over the Rogers annual report and while it's been been 5 years since business school, I'm making some sense of it. However, I also know that just because a number appears on a financial statement, it doesn't mean the number is accurate. Numbers can be fudged. Sportsnet can lowball the money it gives the Jays for broadcasting rights making the Jays seem less profitable. What's going to ensure that the numbers are accurate? GAAP? I don't think so.

Common sense tells me that it is a smart business move for a sports team to whine about losing money and then impose a ridiculously low payroll. Fans who see the players as overpaid will usually side with management. We can be grateful that the Blue Jays aren't the Brewers. The Jays have capable management and in baseball, as opposed to different sports, you can win with a small payroll and competent management. However, growing up in Edmonton I've grown tired of owner's crying poor.

The way I think about it is this: The Jays are almost to point where they can contend for the AL East. We can either go the cheap route and hope that the minors will produce by 2005/2006 or we can spend an extra 10M in payroll and contend from 2004 and beyond. What could JP do with an extra 10M? I'd like to see, wouldn't you?

http://www.oaklandtribune.com/Stories/0,1413,82~10835~1776362,00.html
I read an interesting article from Oakland Tribune about the Kielty/Lilly. This article brings an interesting twist on the Trade.
Money, Money, Money!

CLICK ON MY NAME FOR LINK TO STORY !

The A's needed some Payroll flexibility with Lilly expected to get 2-3 million in arbitration vs. Kielty not eligible for arbitration.

Excerpt from Oakland Tribune:
On one hand, the Kielty-for-Lilly deal was made to add a patient switch-hitting outfielder. But on the other hand, it gave the team what Beane called "considerably more payroll flexibility."

That flexibility came at some cost, Beane acknowledged.

"It's not a painless trade, being as Ted obviously was a major part of the team, and he was going forward." Beane said. "He's going to be missed."

But Lilly is eligible for arbitration and would command between $2 million and $3 million, and Kielty, with less than three seasons in the majors, is not eligible for arbitration.

Bravo, MM. Nice club.

Anyone care to help me fill out Bill James' BR team. Aside from Russell at short, and Ruth pitching and cleaning up, I've got Bill Robinson in LF, Bob Robertson at 1st base and Brian Roberts at 2B. Bob Roberts (aka Tim Robbins) will sing "The Times are Changin' Back" during the 7th inning stretch.

Griffin Schmiffin. It's not so much what he says as the manner in which he says it. The snide condesending tone which has become his trademark is wearing thin - he's a one hit wonder (at least when writing about the Jays) and in that respect a hack. Maybe he thinks he's being clever or iconoclastic, but really Rich, give it a rest.

I'm a big fan of this trade, regardless of public relation machinations, hidden agendas or diabolical schemes designed to dupe the fans, which only Mr. Griffin can save us from. The only qualms I have regards the weak defence on the left side of the diamond, and how Lilly's stats will tranlate in the Skydome.

As for the for the raising of the payroll, I think we are all forgetting one thing; J.P. sold himself to the organization with the promise that it was possible to create a competitive team within the confines of a budget of $50 million. Yes, getting to the playoffs in this division may require more $ - as well as luck with prospects, a healthy ballclub and the demise of the competition among other things - but until that time lets strive for competitiveness.

Cheers
jason

I can only judge Griffin on his recent work so I don't expect him to praise the Jays at every turn. Heck, I don't even expect balanced coverage. If I want to know what great moves JP made I'll read every other paper.

Griffin's problems go far beyond his biases. He is sarcastic and snide, and never lets the facts get in the way of his opinions.

There are plenty of writers around who are less than overly positive about JP: Scott Carson, Geoff Baker, Bob Elliot (on a lengthy personal crusade regarding JP's overhaul of the scouting staff) to name a few. All in all there is a lot of positive coverage of JP because he has lopped 30% off of the payroll while improving the club and retooling the farm system. He deserves a lot of good ink, but to say that everyone except the Star is unfailingly positive about JP is complete and utter nonsense.

It is fair to expect an owner to pony up the cash when a team is making boatloads of money like the Leafs. Now, even though we may not know precisely whether the jays make or lose money or how much they make or lose, I think it is generally accepted that they have lost money, and a lot of it, over the last few years. Even if MLB and Rogers have fudged the numbers, they still had the Blue Jays losing more money than any other team in baseball. Like I say, it is fair to expect an owner to pay when a team is making money, but it is nonsensical to expect an owner pay more when he is losing money, and I think it is reasonable to assume that the Jays lose money. Now, if MLB would just get their act together and install a salary cap with appropriate revenue sharing, then every team would reasonably be expected to spend a competitive amount of money.

While I agree that we should expect our management to put in their best effort to be competitive as soon as possible, I also think that most fans don't have enough patience. Everyone expects their team to be great all the time. That's just not going to work. If you're not going to be a championship calibre team now, then why not sacrifice the present to get a championship calibre team in the future. Most fans are simply not willing to wait, and that's too bad, because it often forces the hand of (foolish) managements who listen to the fans who get worried about PR, and decide to sacrifice a future awesome team to be a consistently mediocre to good team. An example: Toronto Maple Leafs

The clamouring for a higher payroll makes no sense on another level as well: many teams have made the playoffs recently without large wage bills - Florida, Minnesota, Anaheim, and of course, Oakland. JP understands this, and it's fun to watch him work.

One factor to take into account over the next couple of years: the strengthening Canadian dollar. If the buck continues to rise, it will make a big difference to the Jays.

I think the budget for this year - at 50 million is more than adequate. But I also think that if the Jays are near a wild-card berth at mid-season (which I expect them to be), they ought to consider adding some payroll to upgrade the team. I'm confident that an expenditure of 2-4 million on mid-season acquisitions would boost attendance and ratings and essentially pay for itself. If the Jays made the playoffs, it would be a net gain on the bottom line.