Well seeing as how the raps beat NJ already this year i think they stand a good chance of beating them again. Bosh is coming into his own now, hopefully more minutes will be coming his way. Lamond Murray needs more game time in to get his shot back after missing an entire year, and davis can't go 2-13 from the field anymore. NJ isn't exactly on a roll right now, i can easily see the raps winning their first road game of the year. probably 83-79.

If you mean is there anything the Raptors can do to score more points, the answer is not really. Out of 80 possessions in a game, O'Neill wants the ball walked up the floor 74-75 times. There is no scope in a game like that to score 100 points, none whatsoever, unless you have Shaq or somebody who can score 25-30 points a game in the paint off simple entry passes. Those players are, needless to say, rare.

As long as the coach is content to play the opponents' game in their half of the floor, the Raptors won't be scoring. That doesn't mean they won't win games; they can certainly win games when the other team shoots poorly. Otherwise, I don't see it.

Also with the raps playing Philly tonight w/o AI,Big Dog and possibly Coleman, they'll be on a good roll going in to Jersey.

Lets see:

Alvin Williams is playing injured and his shot is gone
Palacio is a backup
Alvin Davis and Jerome Williams can score on some putbacks but they are not offensive options
Curry is there for his defense
Lamond Murray's shot is gone, maybe it will come back
Who is left?

Now that other teams realize that the Raptors offense is Carter they are double and triple teaming him. His shooting percentage is going down. So if someone else steps up (i.e. Chris Bosh) then the Raps can win. If not they don't.

The Raps beat NJ earlier this year. I do think the Raps will lose on the weekend, maybe not a bloodbath, but the odds would be 90/10 for the Nets.

Hey there BattersBox gang. A friend of mine (Young - he posts occasionally) put me onto this site recently, and I've been avidly keeping up with the flurry of discussion in recent days. I want to say to all of you guys, that it's great to read such knowledgable commentary, and the occasional fun disagreement over things.

Anyhow, as with most Toronto sports fans, I enjoy the Raptors a lot, and think by branching out to some NBA discussion we'd be filling a void in the internet community (there's no BattersBox equivalent for the Raptors, to the best of my knowledge). I'm all for chatting about the Raps with you guys here as well as the Jays.

As for the road game against NJ, I'm not much for predictions, but the Nets have yet to hit their stride, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Raps pulled off the upset, and grabbed their first road win (it's bound to happen sooner or later). They have 2 days rest after beating the Iverson/Robinson less Sixers tonight too.

I agree, Craig. The Raptors' defensive effort (which is so much better than last year) will make plenty of opponents shoot poorly. But if opponents have even an average day from the floor, the Raps are toast -- completely outgunned.

My problem is that Toronto has run some really beautiful set plays this season. Too often, though, they force jump shots far too deep into the shot clock. I understand that O'Neill wants to slow it down, but can there be a happy medium?

The Steve-Nash-to-Toronto rumours have heated up here in Dallas again. But what I can't figure out is who Dallas would want from the Raptors.

But what I can't figure out is who Dallas would want from the Raptors.


Why, Antonio Davis, of course!

Maybe it'll be Nash/Jamison for Davis/A. Williams :)

mathesond: If the Mavs would take Davis off of us for any combination of their big 5, I think the Raptors would have done so already. Davis has hit his wall, being an old man with a big contract for 2 more years after this current one.

Craig B: I disagree with Murray, I think he is a bum, a ballhog and hardly ever breaks a sweat on the defensive end relative to the rest of the team. What is O'neill's problem with Peterson? He takes charges and plays decent defense, yet it is "veteran" Curry who is starting and taking up PT. There has been rumours of Peterson coming into camp out of shape, but he looks fine on the court, just not enough playing time at this point.

Basically the team is screwed, Carter needs to sit out about 4 minutes each half to get his energy back for the rest of the game and any time he goes out, the team's performance runs empty in the tank. Perhaps KO can organize his rotation such that whenever Carter sits down he has his next best 5 on the court (Bosh, JYD, Davis, Palacio and Peterson), but that is hard, what with foul trouble and the like.

However, I think the team can still make the playoffs, the East is that weak, there are a number of teams who I would rank as below the Raptors right now. Cavs, Bulls, Magic (wow), Heat, Hawks and probably the Knicks.

Mike D, I totally agree with your assesment that the Raps take too many bad jump shots. Even VC seems to settle for the 12 footer rather than drive on the most part. The one game I saw live (vs. Denver) the only player that made any effort to penetrate other than Carter was Palacio. Davis used to nail his mid range jumpers with regularity, but they aren't falling this year, and he can't shoot from the free throw line either. I think he will right the ship eventually, but as Gerry said, unless a player other than Carter starts to score, the Raps will lose every night. I hope it can be Davis and Bosh that fill that void, but until either can prove more reliable, we will have Murray and Peterson taking a lot of shots off the bench, with their sub .400 shooting percentages.

Very happy about this new basketball outlet. Great idea.

One thing the Raps can do to improve their offensive flow is insert Lamond into the starting lineup. I understand why O'Neill wants Curry in there to start the game: he is intelligent and sets the tone for their perimeter defense. Nevertheless, Curry has lost a step (i.e. he is not the defender he once was) and his presence on the court really allows his defender to cheat, usually towards Vince.

Curry has no offensive game whatsoever.

I suspect that when O'Neill is convinced that a defensive identity has been ingrained (maybe 25 games in), he will make such a switch. At least I hope so!

As for the Nets game, it will be another interesting clash of styles, at least in terms of tempo. As long as the Raptors don't quit (eg. the Sac game), I think they will be able to control things to the extent that it will be a 5-point game, one way or the other.

Maybe it'll be Nash/Jamison for Davis/A. Williams :)

If so, I'm callin for a Lakers-Raps final ! Of course, that isn't gonna happen. I agree that Lamond Murray should be starting at small forward. I think once Murray and Bosh get going, and (let's hope) Williams and Mo-Pete get going again the Raps can move up behind New Orleans, New Jersey, and Indiana as the second tier of the Leastern conference.

What does everyone think of the style that the Raptors play? It seems like the Eastern conference is turning into the NHL. If you play a slow boring game you have a chance to win the game. I appreciate that the Raptors are ocassionally winning. It disapoints me that they only have about a 50% chance of scoring more than 70 points on a given night. :)

Kind of off on a tangent but did anyone realize Batter's Box over took Aarons blog sometime within the past few days? This is now potentially the most visited baseball blog on the web now. Sorry....back to hoopball!

Ben, that may have changed again but I believe Da Box did that around 50,000 hits ago.

Vince Carter's scored the first 9 pts for the Raptors. Can he score all 65? Would that count as impressive?

The difference between slow basketball and slow hockey is that slow hockey means like 1 or 2 goals a game, while slow basketball means 70 points a game. Because there is so much scoring in basketball, to a certain extent I prefer low scoring in basketball. The more precious a basket seems the more inclined I'll be to watch a whole game. Meanwhile, there is too few scoring. It's getting to the point where a two goal lead is insurmountable. That's not good.

The flip side of the coin is that basketball's baskets are like a whore giving it away. I totally disagree with the whole one goal is boring mentality. Not that basketball isn't fun, it is an exciting game mind you, but games like hockey and soccer, there is a certain achievement being made whenever you score a goal, and there are subtler things going on in those games. Just my two cents on that matter.

I'd be scared to put Lamond Murray in the starting lineup. That would mean he would take 25 shots a game instead of Carter. Mix in his non-chalant defense, it's like Walt Williams all over again. For those of you that think he'll 'find his shot', remember the Cavs traded him after a 15 ppg season for Yogi Stewart. They did it because his shot selection and decision making are both poor.

One thing I've noticed this year is that people outside the Toronto area, like Windsor where I unfortunately find myself right now, don't have the chance to watch as many Raptor games because they're only being shown on Toronto 1. I have no idea whether this will change anytime soon, but from what I understand the basic cable channel spectrum is as full as the FM bandwidth range.

The only solution I could see would be to show the games on Raptors/ NBA TV, logistically I'm not sure if that's possible. I sure hope that Toronto 1 doesn't start grabbing Jays games as well. And if they do, I hope they get a restraining order placed on Faulds and Cerutti.

Go to a basketball site if you are going to talk hoops!

A decent place for raptors discussion is www.raptorblog.com - the blog isn't updated often enough, but the forum is pretty busy. I get frustrated with the apparent average age of 15 though (basketball has a much younger (and therefore less educated) fanbase than baseball.

Anyway, as I commented there earlier today, I think the Raptors are a perfect example of how the Moneyball revolution could work wonders in the NBA. In a league with a salary cap, which is so much more dependant on athleticism (and therefore youth) than baseball, why do GMs continue to lavish longterm deals on replacement level players? Antonio Davis had one all-star season with the Raps and got rewarded with a 4-year contract for 50 million. It is now an albatross with 3 horrible years left. Alvin Williams, Jerome Williams - one good season, locked up for long years at significant dough. Both contracts are now dragging the team down.

The route to success is the one that the Lakers and San Antonio have taken - sign a superstar or two forever, and toss replaceable parts in around them as warranted.

Sorry for the long post, but I've been thinking about this for awhile.

Yeah, the raptors are buried under those contracts. I'd trade any one of Davis or the Williamses for nothing. Does anyone know if the budget plays as big a factor in trades in the NBA as it does in MLB or NHL. Would we have to pay part of Davis' contract to trade him. If we can get rid of the three average players were paying big money, we can build the team around our star (Carter) and future star (Bosh). And I think Nash would like to come to Toronto next season, but I'm not sure we can afford him as it is.

We would have a better chance of getting rid of one of those contracts if we would take someone back. Salery plays a massive role in the NBA because of such strict salery cap rules. Davis is drastically overpaid and there aren't many who would be willing to take that mess on without dumping considerable salery back on the Raps.

Generally speaking, with smart management and an owner who's willing to spend near the salery cap, it isn't hard to become a good NBA team because of the cap and an effective draft system. Unlike baseball, a good draft is noticeable right off the bat so significant change can occur in one year.

That said, I hate the game in general because there's no way someone can be blown for a foul if all they did was touch the other person's hand. As well, next to soccer, it includes the most dramatic preformances in sport.

That said, I hate the game in general because there's no way someone can be blown for a foul if all they did was touch the other person's hand. As well, next to soccer, it includes the most dramatic preformances in sport.

Not even close.

There's a diving penalty in hockey! The way some of those cupcakes (a Don Cherry term) go down, you would think they were shot.

You'll have over-acting in any fluid sport, but you can't tell me there's more embellishment in basketball than there is in hockey.

I'd be scared to put Lamond Murray in the starting lineup. That would mean he would take 25 shots a game instead of Carter. Mix in his non-chalant defense, it's like Walt Williams all over again. For those of you that think he'll 'find his shot', remember the Cavs traded him after a 15 ppg season for Yogi Stewart. They did it because his shot selection and decision making are both poor.

NDG, This is false.

The Cavs traded Murray (a former 7th overall pick) because despite his 16.6 PPG in only 32.6 average minutes, they figured he would be squeezed out of PT with Davis/Miles/Wagner coming up. They needed size and considered his contract a 'bad' one. It was a terrible call on their part, because size is the only thing Yogi has.

Lamond Murray has never even averaged 14 shots per game, even as a primary scorer. I think your paranoia of him going crazy is unfounded, especially in highly structured system deployed by Kevin O'Neill.

"MR OCTOBER", don't you dare come on to my site and tell people what they can and can not discuss. This is a hoops topic, if you don't want to talk about it go to another topic.

Excellent discussion here, with some good points.

Firstly, I am no friend to AD. I didn't like his game when he came here, and when he re-signed after Chicago changed their minds, I was especially embittered. So I'd drop him in a heartbeat.

I think JYD is an excellent change of pace guy off the bench, which is rare for a 4. I think if he can control his foul-tastic ways, he's an eminantly helpful player. And you can't deny he rebouds well.

That said, the Raptors, in their current situation, have offensive black holes from 4 of the 5 starting positions. Lamond has a decent J, but from what I've seen (and that's pretty limited), he doesn't have the ability to create his own shot. A healthy Alvin would do absolute wonders for this team.

I think Alvin was overrated due to his 'intangibles'... I love the guy, just like JYD, but the fact is that they would be at best the 5th and 6th best players on a championship-level team. They should not have been signed to long-term deals.

This will thrill the rest of you about the raptors, the TV (and since TV is always right) says a deal is close between the Raptors and Bulls. Oh great, we get Jalen Rose for the Williamses and Mo Pete. I'm sure Grunwald missed the memo when the Bulls were ripped off when acquiring Rose in the first place. Rose is a ball hog, a locker room cancer and a maximum contract for the next 3 years at the least.
Imagine it, Carter, Davis and Rose will take up the entire cap room for the Toronto Raptors!

The rumour I heard on the FAN was that Davis was going too. And it sounded a little stronger than a rumour.

JYD, Alvin, AD & Mo Pete

for

Jalen Rose, Donyell Marshall and Eddie Robinson.

That's a whole lot of horrible contracts.

There's also another rumour that Davis will go to Dallas for Jameson. I don't see how that could possibly be true, but keep your fingers crossed.

JYD, Alvin, AD & Mo Pete

for

Jalen Rose, Donyell Marshall and Eddie Robinson.

Can't stand Jalen Rose, and Robinson is a zero, but it wouldn't be the worst deal talent-wise.

I'll use John Hollinger's PER to represent player's overall skill. PER measures a player's overall skill, including steals/blocks (i.e. some aspects of help defense) but not positional defense. (Incidentally, if you don't have either of John's _Pro Basketball Prospectus_ books, RUN to your bookstore and get it.)

PER is calibrated so that 15.00 is a league-average player, and the positional rank includes all players with 500 minutes at the position, starters and backups. PER is a rate stat... so a player isn't hurt by lack of minutes.

Player             Age   PER(01-02)       PER(02-03)


Jerome Williams     30   15.73 (20th PF)  15.61 (25th PF)
Alvin Williams      29   13.79 (36th PG)  16.69 (16th PG)
Antonio Davis       35   14.83 (25th C)   14.46 (31st C)
Morris Peterson     26   15.25 (21st SF)  12.63 (34th SF)     


Jalen Rose          30   16.73 (15th SF)  14.83 (21st SF)
Donyell Marshall    30   19.17 (7th PF)   18.44 (11th PF)
Eddie Robinson      27   12.71 (42nd SF)  11.54 (45th SF)

Rose plays no defense at all, so that hurts him a little bit. I find it curious that GG would consider shipping out Peterson and bringing in Rose, given the night-and-day difference between their defensive abilities. But that's just me.

I also wonder who the hell is going to run the point, because Rafer Alston is in Miami for some reason (aaaggghhh) and Milt Palacio is only good for demonstrating the true meaning of suck. (A guy who can't create his own shot, is brutally turnover-prone, and doesn't stop the ball on defense or contest shots. Sad.)

Trade rumours are exciting, but I wonder if this is just a lot of smoke blowing. I heard Kevin O'Neill interviewed tonight about the spat between Kenyon Martin and Alonzo Mourning in practice, and he said "I wish there was some of that on our team". He seems a bit exasperated with the current state of affairs on the Raps to say the least.

I know the Raptors aren't scoring, but Jalen Rose is not the solution if you ask me. My big question in all these rumours is: who becomes our Centre when AD gets inevitably shipped off?? I like the idea of getting Jamison into Raptor purple (or is that red?), but really, we have a big hole in the centre of our team, and Bosh's bird like physique is not ready for the big banging down low. I mean, I realize there are few true centres in the East, but we do have to face Shaq, Yao, etc on occasion.

If either of these trades go ahead, I'll be sad to see AD go from a standpoint of sentiment, but if I had to choose a bad contract, I think I'd take Rose's over AD's. Hopefully we don't have to give up MoPete, but evidently O'Neill favours Lamond Murray over him for a 6th man anyhow.

Should be exciting to see what comes of these rumours over the weekend...

The "not scoring" problem is much, much worse than I thought.

I thought the problem was the crushingly slow pace the Raps were playing at. It is slow, and will set a record for the slowest pace in many years if they keep it up.

That's not the only problem.

They aren't just record-setting slow, they can't score either. Their offensive efficiency is just 89.3 points per 100 possessions... which would be easily the worst in the past 15 years and even worse than last year's Nuggets, who were record-setters themselves.

Not a single Raptor is even league-average at converting possessions into points, except Chris Jeffreies who has played just eight minutes; that hardly counts. This problem is coming from the coach out... playing at a snail's pace makes it much harder to run an offense efficiently, because you are running into the teeth of the defense. This team sucks for playing a walk it up-and-down game, O'Neill doesn't recognize it, and he's in love with a godawful point guard. Help!

One final note before I tumble into bed...

Power Forwards With Most Similar Skills (2002-03) to Chris Bosh (03-04)

Overall Contribution : Christian Laettner & Kenyon Martin
Points Per Shot Attempt (i.e. scoring ability when he shoots) : Dirk Nowitzki & Carlos Boozer
Assists : Etan Thomas & LaPhonso Ellis (i.e. awful)
Turnovers : Al Harrington & Robert Horry
Usage Rate (i.e. creating shots) : Gary Trent & Gerald Wallace
Rebounding : Charles Outlaw, Malik Allen, Eduardo Najera (bulk up, Chris)

A strange mix of the excellent and the awful. Those numbers should balance out some as the year draws on.

I now have the spreadsheet to end all spreadsheets. I'm exhausted. The Raptors suck and are likely to lose 50 games again, dammit. Good night!

I'm hoping if Dallas is involved the Raps can get Danny Fortson. I know he was brought in to be the new Dallas 'big man', but he doesn't play much at all there, and would seem to fit the new Raptor style. Plus he'd probably be one of the five best centers in the East (man, the East is sad).

Fortson is a terrible fit, unfortunately. At 6-8, he's no center. He can't create shots and can't handle the ball - so in the halfcourt offense his role is to stand around and set an occasional screen, which the Raptors do too much of already. The only thing he does on offense is rebound, and while rebounding helps it doesn't solve the main problem which is that the Raptors can't create any offense to begin with.

The other problem is that he isn't quick enough to do anything on defense but rebound the ball. His man-on-man defense is bad and his help defense is non-existent, which was the Raptors' problem last year... no help defense at all.

For a team that needs to run, Fortson should work out because his ultra-intense and ultra-efficient rebounding lets you release three guys on the break. I don't see the point of bringing in the league's second-best defensive rebounder (Reggie Evans might be second, Fortson third) if all you're going to do is have him hand the ball to Milt Palacio to walk it over the time line.

All that said, if Fortson can get back a little of the fire that he had three years ago, you go after him in a heartbeat, contact be damned. He looked like an perennial All-Star in the making then, and if he can get back his legs and shot it would be a tremendous coup talent-wise. I'd love to get Fortson and Marshall both; it would be a tremendous boost for the weak, weak frontcourt.

Craig, your assesment of Fortson is pretty on, but I think if Davis gets traded, a tough inside rebounder will be needed (Donyell Marshall is not that guy). The one place where I disagree with you about Fortson is his on the ball defence. I thought it was quite decent (as long as he isn't playing anyone that is quick). He's strong enough to keep from getting backed down into the paint, and takes up enough space that he can keep guards from running in there at will.

I was probably overstating his importance (who me?), but I'd also love to see Fortson and Marshall as one can handle big guys and one is better with the quicker guys.

So it seems there's been no new news on the trade front today, which makes me think this whole thing might be a lot of smoke, although it could just be that they will wait to finalize the deal until the weekend is through. Young suggested it may be just a rumour started by O'Neill to deflect criticism for the team's poor play of late. It has certainly had that effect, though I wonder what Grunwald would think of such a brazen undermining of his hand if actual talks are taking place.

I think a mild or even major shake up of the team could be beneficial, but should not occur at expense of the future. Rose's contract seems like it would do more harm than good to the team, but I am not really in much of a position to evaluate which burden is worse (AD for 2 more years or Rose for 3). I really like the idea of getting Jamison, but I wonder if that would hinder the development of Bosh, which I completely agree with peteski who says he and Carter are the keys to the team. From Mark Cuban's "no way" remark when asked to comment on the potential deal, I really doubt Jamison is coming to Toronto though, which would confirm most people's feelings of this deal being too good to be true (and getting Delk no less).

Craig - I was wondering if you could post a link to those PER rankings you discussed - they seem very interesting, and worthy of some examination by Bauxites (unless of course it is personal/private or otherwise not for public consumption).

Nice to see a win today in Jersey, though the wheels fell off the train in the fourth quarter, with the Raptors coming back to earth after shooting over 60% well into the 3rd quarter. And good to see a road win too, to shake those demons before they go on a four game road trip next week.

David... PER is a stat invented by John Hollinger, author of Pro Basketball Prospectus - a sister publication to Baseball Prospectus. It's sort of like the venerable "Tendex rating"... except instead of a bunch of weightings pulled out of someone's butt, John goes about building an overall rating systematically. It's an excellent system.

PER isn't available online in any complete form as far as I know, though I now have a spreadsheet to calculate it after a long night's work. But John's site, alleyoop.com, has tons of info.

Sample size warnings apply (we're only 10-13 games into the season), and sorry about the size of the file. These PER numbers are after Friday's games.

abdur-rahim,shar	atl	19.88
terry,jason	atl	19.80
nailon,lee	atl	17.49
glover,dion	atl	14.84
mohammed,nazr	atl	11.95
jackson,stephen	atl	11.86
ratliff,theo	atl	11.67
vaughn,jacque	atl	9.26
hansen,travis	atl	6.07
diaw,boris	atl	5.76
crawford,chris	atl	-1.93
dickau,dan	atl	-7.13
pierce,paul	bos	18.58
baker,vin	bos	18.41
lafrentz,raef	bos	18.16
williams,eric	bos	17.46
blount,mark	bos	15.45
james,mike	bos	12.68
brown,kedrick	bos	12.41
battie,tony	bos	10.54
banks,marcus	bos	8.99
welsch,jiri	bos	8.07
jones,jumaine	bos	7.97
mccarty,walter	bos	3.86
johnson,linton	chi	23.83
chandler,tyson	chi	21.33
crawford,jamal	chi	16.26
marshall,donyell	chi	15.92
fizer,marcus	chi	14.91
gill,kendall	chi	14.73
curry,eddy	chi	13.20
rose,jalen	chi	12.45
pippen,scottie	chi	11.96
blount,corie	chi	11.95
robinson,eddie	chi	8.83
baxter,lonny	chi	4.63
hinrich,kirk	chi	4.55
mason,roger	chi	-5.30
mihm,chris	cle	25.17
boozer,carlos	cle	19.79
ilgauskas,zydrun	cle	17.88
james,lebron	cle	17.27
davis,ricky	cle	14.99
ollie,kevin	cle	12.82
diop,desagana	cle	12.20
miles,darius	cle	11.85
sundov,bruno	cle	9.83
kapono,jason	cle	9.71
bremer,j.r.	cle	5.85
stewart,michael	cle	-0.34
newble,ira	cle	-0.51
mccoy,jelani	cle	-3.71
daniels,marquis	dal	28.35
nowitzki,dirk	dal	21.24
bradley,shawn	dal	20.83
nash,steve	dal	20.15
jamison,antawn	dal	19.54
delk,tony	dal	18.79
walker,antoine	dal	17.76
finley,michael	dal	14.61
howard,josh	dal	14.00
najera,eduardo	dal	13.68
fortson,danny	dal	12.87
best,travis	dal	7.43
boykins,earl	den	18.41
andersen,chris	den	18.33
miller,andre	den	17.11
barry,jon	den	15.15
elson,francisco	den	14.66
anthony,carmelo	den	14.48
hilario,nene	den	14.06
camby,marcus	den	12.95
bowen,ryan	den	12.21
tskitishvili,nik	den	10.26
white,rodney	den	9.80
lenard,voshon	den	8.25
billups,chauncey	det	24.49
wallace,ben	det	19.16
okur,mehmet	det	18.40
campbell,elden	det	16.25
fowlkes,tremaine	det	15.55
hamilton,richard	det	15.43
sura,bob	det	14.27
williamson,corli	det	13.77
prince,tayshaun	det	11.57
atkins,chucky	det	9.89
hunter,lindsey	det	5.96
rebraca,zeljko	det	5.23
ham,darvin	det	0.00
milicic,darko	det	-12.72
lampley,sean	gsw	24.39
richardson,jason	gsw	21.51
cardinal,brian	gsw	21.07
pietrus,mickael	gsw	19.45
dampier,erick	gsw	18.14
dunleavy,mike	gsw	14.43
robinson,cliff	gsw	12.52
johnson,avery	gsw	12.46
cheaney,calbert	gsw	12.23
vanexel,nick	gsw	11.36
parks,cherokee	gsw	11.14
claxton,speedy	gsw	9.60
foyle,adonal	gsw	0.00
langhi,dan	gsw	-1.67
jones,popeye	gsw	-9.71
ming,yao	hou	21.90
ford,alton	hou	18.59
francis,steve	hou	18.02
padgett,scott	hou	17.89
mobley,cuttino	hou	15.20
cato,kelvin	hou	13.10
wilks,mike	hou	13.07
taylor,maurice	hou	12.56
jackson,jim	hou	10.39
braggs,torraye	hou	10.30
norris,moochie	hou	8.75
nachbar,bostjan	hou	8.36
o'neal,jermaine	ind	21.83
artest,ron	ind	19.01
foster,jeff	ind	18.79
miller,reggie	ind	17.62
johnson,anthony	ind	16.26
harrington,al	ind	13.70
croshere,austin	ind	10.65
anderson,kenny	ind	9.49
pollard,scot	ind	8.40
brezec,primoz	ind	4.40
jones,fred	ind	3.62
tinsley,jamaal	ind	-2.80
brand,elton	lac	37.85
zhizhi,wang	lac	28.68
wilcox,chris	lac	20.01
maggette,corey	lac	18.05
drobnjak,predrag	lac	17.88
richardson,quent	lac	17.82
jaric,marko	lac	17.37
house,eddie	lac	14.02
dooling,keyon	lac	11.32
ely,melvin	lac	8.59
simmons,bobby	lac	6.67
kaman,chris	lac	6.29
rice,glen	lac	-2.67
o'neal,shaquille	lal	23.39
bryant,kobe	lal	22.34
malone,karl	lal	19.01
payton,gary	lal	18.48
george,devean	lal	14.86
sampson,jamal	lal	14.85
fisher,derek	lal	10.64
walton,luke	lal	9.98
russell,bryon	lal	9.03
grant,horace	lal	8.34
pargo,jannero	lal	5.63
rush,kareem	lal	-3.56
battier,shane	mem	20.24
swift,stromile	mem	20.08
gasol,pau	mem	19.73
tsakalidis,jake	mem	18.75
williams,jason	mem	18.62
wright,lorenzen	mem	15.88
posey,james	mem	15.04
outlaw,bo	mem	14.30
miller,mike	mem	12.77
watson,earl	mem	10.58
person,wesley	mem	4.51
jones,dahntay	mem	-2.95
smith,theron	mem	-8.05
jones,eddie	mia	19.60
wallace,john	mia	15.69
woods,loren	mia	14.62
walker,samaki	mia	14.45
odom,lamar	mia	14.03
haslem,udonis	mia	13.07
alston,rafer	mia	12.31
wade,dwayne	mia	11.20
grant,brian	mia	10.88
hill,tyrone	mia	8.41
beasley,jerome	mia	6.72
allen,malik	mia	4.30
butler,caron	mia	2.00
coles,bimbo	mia	-0.06
penney,kirk	mia	-6.79
haislip,marcus	mil	26.87
redd,michael	mil	22.44
gadzuric,dan	mil	18.04
strickland,erick	mil	17.73
smith,joe	mil	17.37
thomas,tim	mil	17.36
kukoc,toni	mil	16.88
skinner,brian	mil	14.72
santiago,daniel	mil	13.44
mason,desmond	mil	12.40
jones,damon	mil	11.55
ford,t.j.	mil	10.20
przybilla,joel	mil	6.89
garnett,kevin	min	26.69
sprewell,latrell	min	16.75
trent,gary	min	16.38
cassell,sam	min	16.35
hoiberg,fred	min	15.81
mcleod,keith	min	11.52
madsen,mark	min	11.22
olowokandi,micha	min	8.82
lewis,quincy	min	7.78
hassell,trenton	min	4.98
johnson,ervin	min	-4.47
ebi,ndudi	min	-5.20
kidd,jason	njn	20.71
martin,kenyon	njn	19.98
jefferson,richar	njn	14.54
kittles,kerry	njn	13.67
slay,tamar	njn	13.12
scalabrine,brian	njn	12.10
mourning,alonzo	njn	11.77
collins,jason	njn	10.33
overton,doug	njn	9.79
williams,aaron	njn	9.17
rogers,rodney	njn	8.40
armstrong,brando	njn	8.01
planinic,zoran	njn	5.50
pack,robert	njn	0.00
davis,baron	nor	26.51
armstrong,darrel	nor	18.12
smith,steve	nor	18.06
wesley,david	nor	17.27
brown,p.j.	nor	15.31
traylor,robert	nor	14.85
drew,bryce	nor	13.99
west,david	nor	13.95
magloire,jamaal	nor	13.28
lynch,george	nor	12.32
augmon,stacey	nor	4.51
rooks,sean	nor	4.22
ward,charlie	nyk	18.39
houston,allan	nyk	16.75
thomas,kurt	nyk	14.66
mutombo,dikembe	nyk	13.22
weatherspoon,cla	nyk	13.17
vanhorn,keith	nyk	12.58
eisley,howard	nyk	12.31
harrington,othel	nyk	9.66
doleac,michael	nyk	9.61
williams,frank	nyk	5.22
anderson,shandon	nyk	4.91
sweetney,mike	nyk	0.27
mcgrady,tracy	orl	24.15
dial,derrick	orl	16.13
lue,tyronn	orl	15.06
gooden,drew	orl	13.39
howard,juwan	orl	13.06
hunter,steven	orl	12.69
giricek,gordan	orl	10.73
williams,shammon	orl	9.64
pachulia,zaza	orl	9.37
declercq,andrew	orl	8.42
bogans,keith	orl	6.90
harvey,donnell	orl	6.14
johnsen,britton	orl	5.68
garrity,pat	orl	0.73
gaines,reece	orl	-0.34
iverson,allen	phi	23.27
dalembert,samuel	phi	17.97
thomas,kenny	phi	17.32
salmons,john	phi	17.10
mckie,aaron	phi	15.09
robinson,glenn	phi	14.07
jackson,marc	phi	13.98
snow,eric	phi	13.16
coleman,derrick	phi	11.84
mccaskill,amal	phi	11.25
green,willie	phi	1.95
korver,kyle	phi	0.73
marbury,stephon	pho	20.63
marion,shawn	pho	18.92
williams,scott	pho	18.82
stoudemire,amare	pho	16.98
white,jahidi	pho	16.88
cabarkapa,zarko	pho	13.69
johnson,joe	pho	12.42
knight,brevin	pho	12.27
jacobsen,casey	pho	10.65
hardaway,anferne	pho	10.22
voskuhl,jake	pho	10.20
barbosa,leandrin	pho	7.14
gugliotta,tom	pho	4.29
trybanski,cezary	pho	-36.91
randolph,zach	por	23.72
wallace,rasheed	por	19.37
mcinnis,jeff	por	16.12
patterson,ruben	por	15.47
davis,dale	por	14.50
stoudamire,damon	por	14.40
wells,bonzi	por	13.41
carroll,matt	por	11.69
boumtje,ruben	por	11.14
stepania,vladimi	por	11.02
woods,qyntel	por	9.42
murray,tracy	por	2.73
outlaw,travis	por	-24.65
anderson,derek	por	-37.00
stojakovic,predr	sac	23.53
bibby,mike	sac	22.05
miller,brad	sac	20.73
jackson,bobby	sac	18.71
divac,vlade	sac	18.67
peeler,anthony	sac	18.28
songaila,darius	sac	17.24
christie,doug	sac	11.07
massenburg,tony	sac	10.74
wallace,gerald	sac	9.88
smith,jabari	sac	6.11
buford,rodney	sac	0.68
duncan,tim	san	29.99
ginobili,emanuel	san	20.53
parker,tony	san	17.45
mercer,ron	san	15.35
rose,malik	san	13.94
horry,robert	san	13.86
brown,devin	san	12.82
nesterovic,rados	san	12.64
turkoglu,hidayet	san	11.74
hart,jason	san	10.08
bowen,bruce	san	8.06
heal,shane	san	5.46
willis,kevin	san	5.25
carter,anthony	san	0.53
murray,ronald	sea	25.16
lewis,rashard	sea	21.52
daniels,antonio	sea	20.12
booth,calvin	sea	17.78
barry,brent	sea	16.48
radmanovic,vlad	sea	14.44
frahm,richie	sea	12.28
sesay,ansu	sea	10.78
evans,reggie	sea	9.55
ridnour,luke	sea	9.02
james,jerome	sea	6.58
potapenko,vitaly	sea	-3.13
jefferies,chris	tor	35.47
carter,vince	tor	21.49
brunson,rick	tor	19.49
bosh,chris	tor	16.14
peterson,morris	tor	16.13
williams,jerome	tor	13.20
davis,antonio	tor	11.24
moiso,jerome	tor	10.54
murray,lamond	tor	9.73
palacio,milt	tor	7.90
bateer,mengke	tor	5.83
curry,michael	tor	4.45
williams,alvin	tor	3.54
handlogten,ben	uta	30.58
kirilenko,andrei	uta	25.16
arroyo,carlos	uta	22.51
harpring,matt	uta	18.01
ostertag,greg	uta	13.14
lopez,raul	uta	12.59
stevenson,deshaw	uta	12.46
bell,raja	uta	10.95
borchardt,curtis	uta	9.81
williams,maurice	uta	9.74
clark,keon	uta	9.01
pavlovic,aleksan	uta	8.82
collins,jarron	uta	8.32
arenas,gilbert	was	20.31
thomas,etan	was	19.11
hughes,larry	was	18.41
dixon,juan	was	17.58
laettner,christi	was	17.37
whitney,chris	was	13.35
haywood,brendan	was	11.28
hayes,jarvis	was	10.96
brown,kwame	was	10.54
jeffries,jared	was	10.40
blake,steve	was	5.38

Craig, just wanted to say thanks very much for the helpful info. I've done some quick reading on Hollinger's site, and it's very interesting to say the least. I think I've found a nice book to add to my Christmas wish list in his Basketball Prospectus...

Taking a quick glance at our Raptors in the rankings, it is nice to see them confirm what we already knew, namely Vince being head and shoulders above the rest, and Bosh and MoPete contributing nicely when they are on the court. I guess these stats don't really emphasize defence all that much, but Curry's low totals make his lack of contribution to anything but D even clearer. And as you have pointed out numerously, Palacio is not the answer at the point, even with the generous minutes he's been receiving... Now if we could only get that super stud Chris Jefferies and his 35 PER ranking on the court, eh?

The problem with a rating system in basketball is that a lot of the stats are meaningless. Assists are completely arbitrary, shooting percentage is highly situation-dependant, rebounds are as much a product of opportunity as skill... there's so much that doesn't show up in the boxscore. The way I see it, pure scoring skill (especially 3-pt shooting) shows up like offence in baseball, but the rest is like baseball's defensive metrics circa 1985 or so: there aren't many stats, and the ones we have don't tell us much.

(I'm not trying to badmouth PER, it is a nice step from what I've heard, I'm just saying that I don't see how we can get around the limitations of the basic stats.)

The problem with a rating system in basketball is that a lot of the stats are meaningless. Assists are completely arbitrary, shooting percentage is highly situation-dependant, rebounds are as much a product of opportunity as skill... there's so much that doesn't show up in the boxscore. The way I see it, pure scoring skill (especially 3-pt shooting) shows up like offence in baseball, but the rest is like baseball's defensive metrics circa 1985 or so: there aren't many stats, and the ones we have don't tell us much.

I don't think that's all true, although there is substantially *more* subjectivity in basketball statistics than there is in a static, Markov-type game like baseball or cricket (or go or chess or even tennis) where play halts at frequent intervals with the game in definable static states that allow for analysis.

Assists are at the dscretion of scorers, that much is true... but so are errors in baseball. It's glib to say that "errors are meaningless", it's a frequent complaint of sabermetrically-oriented folk, but it's just not true. Errors, like assists, are less meaningful than they could be given greater regularity among scorers. But that doesn't mean that they are arbitrary, or meaningless. There is a great deal of information to be gained from assist stats. Good passers and players who see a lot of the ball dominate assist totals; poor passers and players who never have possession have relatively few. That's trite, but it tells us that there is *some* information. In fact, I think that the lament that scorers aren't uniform in awarding assists is a bit overdone.

Shooting percentage is highly situation-dependent, but if you know what to look for (looking at points per possession or points per shot instead of straight %) and take a player's burden of the offense into account, you can get meaningful information out of it. A player who never shoots *should* have a high percentage, and knowing that we can account for it.

Rebounding is indeed a product of opportunity... one reason that rebounding should be measured as a percentage of missed shots rebounded rather than a straight total, and forwards should not be compared to guards.

As for what doesn't show up in the boxscore, it's a problem. One element where basketball still needs to do better is to measure plus-minus, like in hockey, and preferably positional plus-minus as well (what the other 2, 3, 5, etc. does while player is on the floor). We can get partway there through the judicious analysis of boxscores (Hollinger's book has a starting point, analyzing player positional defense almost in a Win Shares style, by looking at individual positional defense through a team analysis, like how a team does against the opposition's starting power forwards, backup power forwards, or starting point gurads, etc.)

Basketball studies is 20 years at least behind sabermetrics, as you indeed indicated. We *will* eventually get there, to the incredible levels of sophistication we have in baseball today (and beyond). For now, though, there is a lot that the numbers can tell us.

This year's abysmal ranking is nothing new for Michael Curry. Curry's been brutal for years, ranking 56th out of 59 small forwards last year, 65th in 2001-02, and 54th in 2000-01. He's the worst rebounding forward in basketball and has been for two or three years now.

He's a great passer for a forward, which doesn't matter much on the Raptors because he has no one to pass to. He doesn't use that skill overly much, because he never has the ball, and he's the most reluctant 2 or 3 in the league when it comes to actually shooting the ball. If you never shoot, shoot for a low percentage, and never rebound, you're not much good in the frontcourt. Curry's a good defender, but he'd have to be an All-World defensive player to justify his minutes, considering his suckage on the offensive half of the floor. He's not.

By the way... how bad a rebounder is Curry? Just taking 2002-03, John Stockton was a better rebounder. Nick Van Exel was better. Howard Eisley was better. Lindsey Hunter was better. Jalen Rose, who never rebounds the ball except by accident, was better. Out of 313 NBA players of all shapes and sizes who played 500 minutes, Curry was 295th in Rebound Rate, and last among forwards.

I hate to keep ragging on Curry, who never hurt a soul. It's not his fault that Kevin O'Neill completely misunderstands the relative importance of the offensive and defensive ends of the floor, or that the Raptors basically have no horses. So he has to play.