I'll take exception to the idea he won't help sell any extra tickets. Even when he's not on his game he's a pleasure to watch compete. He puts his heart into his work and it shows..to me his kind of dedication and effort is the thing that attracts fans. Win or lose you know you'll come away from a Hentgen start knowing he busted his ass out there. Ass busting = entertainment = value for your money.

I think this is absolutely great from this fan's standpoint. And at $2.2MM, it makes sense from a financial standpoint as well.

Even if he struggles, I won't mind as much as I did with a Cory Lidle or a Tanyon Sturtze. The difference? I have invested in Pat Hentgen. I have cheered for him in the past and he has repaid with performance on the field. I am willing to cut him more slack.

That said, I don't expect him to struggle. He should put up decent, above-average numbers. We can't expect that 3.10 ERA he put up the last 3 months of last year though. Part of his second half success was due to giving up fewer hits and some of that you can chalk up to randomness. But his control also improved as last season wore on and he struck out more guys. Both are good signs that his elbow is getting back to normal. If he gives the Jays 190 innings with an ERA around 4, that should be 16 or so wins on this club and I'll think that's just ducky.

This is what JP was looking for when he traded for Lidle last year. The bonus is that he costs less and no prospects were traded. Another good move, JP. I would say he's 3 for 3 so far this offseason. Now if he could only get that number 2 starter....

100% agreed. I love to watch Hentgen work and I appreciate his intensity. In all honesty, I'm more likely to go to the park to watch Hentgen than someone like Sturtze, who (aside from his poor performance in 2003) is frustrating to watch.

I don't think it makes a big difference, but it makes some.

http://economics.about.com
I like the signing, but I think you guys are a little too optimistic.

Post All-Star break he had an ERA of 3.10, but his DIPS ERA for that period was around 4.90.

This is one signing where I think traditional scouting is more important than "statistical" scouting. If Pat comes into 2004 completely healthy, I could see him putting up some decent numbers. If not, then it could get ugly.

I'd say an ERA of 4.70 is more likely with 170 innings and a 15-11 record. Obviously that's just an educated guess and I wouldn't put any money on it.

Is that worth $2.2 million? Given the potential upside and the fact that Hentgen is a name, I'd say it is. It's not a steal and it's my least favorite of the three deals this off season, but it's still a good move.

So, Craig, what does the Jays payroll situation look like now?

Cheers,

Mike

I'm with Mike on this one. I love Pat but, while I think all in all this is a good baseball move, I don't think its a homerun. It's great from a PR perspective and that obviously has merit. I'm not expecting anything better than a mid to high 4 ERA and a good number of innings. If that's the result then the 2.2 million is definitely not wasted but it's not a steal. In sum, there's a number of things to like about the deal (most notably that its for one year) and I think JP gets a thumbs up for this but not "way up".

If you want to include DIPS numbers in your analysis of Pat's 2nd half, then I think its fair to also mention that he had zero second half starts against DET, KC, ANA and only 1 against TBAY - he pitched plenty against NYY, BOS and TEX - and of course he didnt pitch at all against his own team BAL

I think he's likely a 4-4.5 ERA but I do believe he'll top 200 innings - he's healthy, he's a workhorse and I do believe the Jays will throw him out every 5th day (as opposed to every 5th game)

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On Primer, someone mentioned that most of Hentgen's starts in the last three months came against good teams. He wasn't kidding. Here's who Pat faced:

Oakland (in Oakland)
Texas (in Baltimore)
Toronto (in Toronto) 2ER in 6 innings
Boston (in Baltimore)
Minnesota (in Baltimore)
Tampa Bay (in Tampa)
Yankees (in Baltimore)
Yankees (in New York)
Oakland (in Oakland)
Oakland (in Baltimore)
Seattle (in Baltimore)
Toronto (in Toronto) 5ER in 6 2/3 innings
Yankees (in Baltimore)
Boston (in Baltimore)

In those 14 starts, he faced the three best offenses in the AL (Toronto, Boston, New York) 7 times! Plus 5 more starts against pennant contenders (Oakland, Minnesota, Seattle). Only 2 of the 14 starts came against bad teams (Tampa and Texas) and Texas has a lot of power.

Cheers,

Mike

I'm with Mike M on this one.

As I said in the Hijack thread:

Hentgen wasn't dominant in the second half, he just had a low ERA.

In the 2nd half of the season, in 87 innings (13 starts) he had 5.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. Or said another way, that's essentially what Cory Lidle gave up this year for the Jays while being injured part of the time.

It's hard for any 1 year, low $ starter to be a bad signing, but I'm not overly excited about the signing.

Is this the first FA signing over $1 million of a player that switched teams? At $2.2 million are the Jays overshooting early like they did last year with Tam, Creek and Sturtze?

Glad we got him ,although $2.2 million sounds a little high. No matter, it's only for a year, so it can't be too big a mistake, and Hentgen is flippable at the deadline if need be.

What decides this acquisition for me is whether we lose any draft picks. Anyone know?

I don't think this is overshooting at all - Hentgen is an good bet to eat up 200 innings at an average level, and that's easily worth 2.2 million.
Add that to the non-objective factors (fan favorite, mentor, etc), and I think you have a great move.

Hentgen's agent, told Crasnick, "Pat's pitched in a lot of places where he hasn't had much run support. We want him in a place where he's not always dragging a 1-0 lead into the ninth. That wears on you after a while."

That's great to see. It's a shame the Jays aren't opening the purse strings a little bit more because Toronto is an enticing destination for pitchers.

http://economics.about.com
What decides this acquisition for me is whether we lose any draft picks. Anyone know?

They don't.

Craig posted the Elias rankings here.

For whatever reason, Hentgen didn't even warrant a "C". I guess he didn't play enough.

Cheers,

Mike

Post All-Star break he had an ERA of 3.10, but his DIPS ERA for that period was around 4.90.

His dERA is so high in the second half primarily because he gave up a lot of home runs (13 in 87 IP and 25 in 160.2 IP for the year). The question is, will he continue to give up that many home runs? We don't know the answer I suppose, but consider that he didn't start giving up a lot of HR until 1998, which was when he started playing hurt. Before that time, he was giving up HR at about 1.0 per game instead of 1.4 per game.

According to Michael Wolverton's numbers at Baseball Prospectus, Hentgen's Support-Neutral Wins Above Replacement was 1.9 -- for comparison purposes, at or around the number posted by Tim Wakefield, Tom Glavine and Jeremy Affeldt. That's not so bad, and barring injury, he should do about that well again. Camden Yards played as a slight pitchers' park last year, but Pat's home/away splits were negligible. As a starter, he was 7-8, 4.28, averaging 6 1/3 innings per start. If he starts just 25 games for the Blue Jays (I'll assume he misses 7 starts with injuries), that's 160 innings right there (if he makes all 32 possible starts, that's 200 IP; query whether that's realistic for a post-surgery 36-year-old).

In terms of his good second half, it's quite possible that it was just a good streak aided by positive DIPS totals. However, it was also (IIRC) 18 months after his TJ surgery, which is usually when a pitcher finally gets his groove back. Also, consider this very small but intriguing sample:

vs. NYY: 1-0, 2.89, 18 IP, 16 H, 6 BB, 13 K
vs. BOS: 2-0, 3.26, 19 IP, 16 H, 3 BB, 14 K
vs. OAK: 0-1, 3.20, 19 IP, 12 H, 8 BB, 14 K

He wasn't just piling up good innings against the softies.

If Pat does start 25 games, he ought to come away with wins in at least half of them; given a better bullpen (and Baltimore's was worse than Toronto's last year), 15 wins is a reasonable target, as is a mid-4.00s ERA. I agree that $2.2M is about as much as I'd have paid here, but I don't think that amount will suffer by comparison with salaries given out to comparable players later on. I'd advise caution in signing anyone else right away, though: I do think that market is going to drop some more. Getting Hentgen now was important for both planning reasons and to beat the crowd, but I don't see anyone else out there who needs to be inked before Dec. 7. I still say: very good move.

Good signing for all of the reasons given above, cautions duly noted. I see him as the Lidle replacement, and I think it's very reasonable to project him to provide better innings than Lidle did. At $3M less than Lidle and with vastly superior intangibles, it's easy to like this deal.

Here's where the payroll stands:

Signed
SP Hentgen, C Myers, 1B Delgado, 3B Hinske, LF Catalanotto, CF Wells, UT Berg

7 roster spots, $26.1M

Rights under control

SP Halladay, SP Towers, RP Lopez, RP Kershner, RP Miller, C Cash, 2B Hudson, SS Woodward, RF Kielty, DH Phelps, OF Johnson

I project Halladay at $6.0M in the first year of a new deal and I'm fairly generous with the rest.

11 roster spots, $10.85M.

Needed

2 x SP, 3 x RP, 1 infielder, 1 more reliever or a bat off the bench

7 roster spots, ~$13M available.

I haven't mentioned Politte, Walker, or Hendrickson, who are obviously candidates for pitching spots.

For whatever reason, Hentgen didn't even warrant a "C". I guess he didn't play enough.

Anyone have any idea what criterion Elias use to come up with the rankings the A/B/C designations are based on ?

$13 million?

You've gotta be tempted by, say, Tejada and six scrubs.

Although I think Halladay's probably going to get more than $6 million, unless the contract's back-loaded (which it might be).

I had heard estimates that Halladay would be at least 8 million.
Certainly he should be asking for around that amount for a long-term deal.

Speaking of which, I've heard lots of talk about Escobar... but what should we be offering Doc this winter? Whatever it takes?

Ive always thought 3 yrs at 29 mil (7, 10, 12) for Doc

The way I look at it, last year Lidle made $5.5M and Kelvim made $3.8M (I think those numbers are right), so flip performance and salaries and you get Lidle like performance from Pat for $2.2M which still leaves $6-8M for Escobar or his replacement. I doubt that JP will spend that much for a #2, as he is trying to cut payroll and he gave some minor increases to Meyers and the Cat and he still needs bullpen help, but at least he has the flexibilty to do so.

Also, most Bauxites had indicated a salary in the $1.5M to $2M range was realistic - well $200K in the larger scheme of things in baseball isn't that significant.

Man, that sure hits home. How many of us could consider $200K insignificant?

I'm assuming Doc's agents will be insisting on a four-year deal... and he has the leverage to make it happen.
I'd say 4 years at 40 mil or so would be a good price, but i'm not sure he'd go for it.

Rumour had it that Hentgen has a tatoo of the Jays logo on his but. May have been a factor in his return :)

Thanks for the breakdown, Jonny.

Do we know for certain what the payroll is budgeted to be? Spencer Fordin has reported $50MM. The FAN is reporting $52MM. Either way, there's well more than $10MM available for JP to spend, which is boatloads for a smart GM.

Since Elias uses the past two years to rate their players and Hentgen only pitched in 4 games in 2002 it doesn't surprise me that they would not have to give up any compensation for him.

It's hard to argue with the move, and reasonable to think Pat can give the team 175-200 decent innings. If his ERA is 4.50 or below that would be a much-needed boost to the rotation. Class guy; glad he is back and that 1 more rotation spot is settled.

I'm pleased that Hentgen is back - he's a classy guy, he's a tough competitor, and he enjoyed playing here. He'll probably put a few butts in seats, too - especially if the Jays' marketing droids use him in some of their promotions.

Having said that, I think he'll pitch better in the summer than in the spring. He's a bit prone to home runs, and the Dome in April is a bit prone to yielding home runs.

My guess on Doc's Deal is 4 years, $39M - 6 - 10 - 11 - 12. I think he's the kind of "team player" who would be agreeable to this kind of backloading, which works well for the Jays because of Delgado's contract. It's still a substantial raise for 2004 - his 2003 salary was $3.825M. And consider the structure of the Vernon's deal - .520 - .700 - 2.900 - 4.300 - 5.600 (very similar breakdown for Hinske).

One player to talk to before December 7 is Tony Graffanino. Other than that I agree with Jordan, wait to see where the market is going and who will require compensation (Graffanino does not, and there aren't a lot of decent SS options out there).

I like this signing, essentially for the reasons that Jordan gives. Hentgen's strikeout rate has improved significantly since his TJ surgery. He may have a little further improvement left, and if he can strike out 7/game, he could be quite effective. Even if he doesn't improve further, he should be an adequate no. 4 starter. And the price is reasonable.

For whatever reason, Hentgen didn't even warrant a "C".

The ratings combine the last two seasons. He pitched 22 ineffective innings in September 2002 and wasn't much better in the first half of 2003. But as Jordan points out, it takes a while to "get the groove back" after TJ surgery, and his second half was excellent. Considering that Cory Lidle is an "A" pitcher, it's a break for the Jays that Pat is compensation-free, making a good deal that much better.

Others have mentioned how many tough opponents Hentgen held in check down the stretch. I was impressed when he got 11 groundouts against the Jays at the end of July -- prior to that start, I had assumed that he didn't have "stuff" anymore and was trying to reinvent himself as a finesse guy. I was wrong; he went on to shut out the Red Sox for eight innings, beat Boomer in the Bronx, matched zeroes with Zito through eight, and was in a 1-1 duel with Mussina in the hurricane-aborted five-inning fiasco.

he had several suitors but chose the Blue Jays

This is significant. I'm sure that Hentgen is well respected, and I'm sure that he could have signed with a dozen other teams for similar money. His choice is a ringing endorsement of what J.P. is trying to do here. Instead of instructing his agent to conduct a bidding war, Pat enthusiastically enlisted as a Fighting Jay, and the timing couldn't be better. Other players will notice, and let's hope his decision influences his friend Roy Halladay to sign that extension.

Cheer Club approves of the move. ;)

First written-in-stone must-be-done gigantic sign for next season: Welcome home, Pat.

http://economics.about.com
I like it, Aaron!

For the signs next year, have you considered punching a couple holes in the top and tying them to the railings with cable ties? It might be easier than trying to unroll them all the time.

I can't wait until the opener. I haven't found a big obnoxious drum yet, but I figure there's still lots of time.

Cheers,

Mike

great signing. Soild pitcher, and more importantly will help out the young pitching prospects that might be called up next year ie Arnold or maybe even Bush and he will also help Halladay and give him advice and take some pressure of him. By doing that we might see Halladay get even more dominant than he already is. If Esco gets signed I know Hentgen will also be crucial in helping Esco possibly take it to the next level. Obviously we should not get ahead of ourselves cause with pitchers u jus never know but I will be more than satisfied if he can win some games and more importantly keep our team in the game when he is pitching so that our offence has a chance to win. Lets hope J.P. is creative enuff to get another good pitcher.

I'm sure the main thing that Hentgen can mentor Halladay on is how to handle the post Cy Young pressure. Other than that, I think Halladay has it pretty much figured out.

Coach, I think it's very likely that Hentgen's signing will have significant impact on Doc's decision making process. It was a virtual love in when Pat came through town and Doc was right there at the front of the parade. This is a great signing for team building purposes alone. Credit to Pat for signing on.

Hope I'm wrong but I have feeling this signing means Escobar is as good as gone which should mean that JP could have between 4-5 million for a no. two starter. The team should be able to fill the 4-5 rotation holes from within the current list of suspects. That would suit me just fine as long as the team addresses the closer situation.

For the signs next year, have you considered punching a couple holes in the top and tying them to the railings with cable ties? It might be easier than trying to unroll them all the time.

Yeah, but you have to be in the front row for that. The good news is that the Season's Pass now counts for front row of the SkyDeck, so it's actually possible.

Remember, volume is more important than sound quality when choosing a Cheer Club drum.

http://economics.about.com
Remember, volume is more important than sound quality when choosing a Cheer Club drum.

Totally. Particularly since we've seen that my voice is at half power by about the 6th inning. We gotta make up for the noise somehow.

A few nice loud horns would be great as well.

Next year is going to be a blast. I hope Jacko and Andrew Edwards can make a lot of the games. They're quite loud and enthusiatic.

Cheers,

Mike

Great news.

Pat was a fighting Jay before they became the Fighting Jays. He fits in perfectly to this team's redefined personality.

I know it's unrealistic, but LaTroy Hawkins would bring another constructive, competitive personality into the mix...

I hope Jacko and Andrew Edwards can make a lot of the games

I'm there, dude.

I second Jonny's interest in Graffanino - he could be very useful for the right price, especially if Bordick rides off into the sunset.

Anyone who's up for a Cheer Club Winter Meeting some time soon, drop me a line. Aside from the obvious talking about baseball and Cheer Club brainstorming, there's a very large TV at Cheer Club HQ and also an indoor grill. ;)

Not to go all Devil Rays, but I think a lot of how well the Jays pitch in '04 will hinge on putting a defensive wiz at SS. Hinske's clearly got problems defensively- I'd like to give him another year there to see if his bat can compensate for them, but if you do that you need a SS with great range. We've talked about the Dual Reys of (ops) Death, but there are younger and perhaps better options out there JP could dig up. Refresh me because I haven't been paying very close attention- JP has identified SS as an are he needs to address this winter, correct?

Hentgen seems like a good move, potentially a great one if he stays healthy and the Jays put good defense behind him. The risk is low enough. JP's 3/3 so far this off-season in my book.

http://economics.about.com
You had me at "very large TV". The indoor grill just sweetens the deal.

Who is next for a cheap signing for the Jays?

How about Glendon Rusch of the Sucktown Brewers?

Shane Reynolds or Darren Oliver would be interesting if they were to sign for almost nothing. Can't see that happening.

Cheers,

Mike

Darren Oliver would be interesting?

Not to go all anagramatic on you again, but ...
Darren Oliver = "I Love Earn'd RR" ("I Love Earned Runs")

Darren Oliver would be interesting only in the way "Hey, how ABOUT that Bucky Dent?" will start a friendly conversation in a Boston pub.

The Season's Pass now counts for the entire SkyDeck? Sweet.

http://economics.about.com
Mick, you forgot the "if". Maybe I should have wrote it "IF".

What I mean is he'd be interesting if he'd sign an Esteban Loaiza 2003 type contract. I know he's nothing more than a #4 at best.

Mike, not even then.

I admit I have DarrenOliver-phobia, but I've seen this guy get lit up time after time after time.

I can't believe he was a double digit winner in Coors Field.

I do think he has the potential to be an interesting situational one-batter lefty.

http://economics.about.com
Well, I don't see it happening, so it's academic anyway.

Are you going to create a thread for the Padres-A's trade? I could see it creating some discussion.

Cheers,

Mike

I think a lot of how well the Jays pitch in '04 will hinge on putting a defensive wiz at SS

Who is next for a cheap signing for the Jays?

Pokey Reese? Might not be a bad option for a backup MI spot if you want a glove.

The Season's Pass now counts for the entire SkyDeck? Sweet.

Yep. They're soliciting past Pass holders by phone and mail right now. I signed up pretty much instantly. Apparently they are keeping the pass around but not increasing the number of them out there, like "normal" season's tickets.

I'd say an ERA of 4.70 is more likely with 170 innings and a 15-11 record.

Mike, that's a ton of decisions in 30 5.7-inning starts!

I'm with Mike and others on this one. Hentgen's peripherals and injury history are definitely cause for concern. I think people's mistiness over the prodigal son's return are impairing their objectivity. I'm much less enthused about Hentgen 2004 than I was about Lidle 2003.

Mike's on his own when he starts talking about Darren Oliver, though.

As for Lurker's asssertion that Hentgen will mean ticket sales, I'd say maybe for his first start, but that's it. I don't recall Clemens being a better-than-average draw during his Cy Young phase for the Jays, or am I mistaken?

"Apparently they are keeping the pass around but not increasing the number of them out there, like 'normal' season's tickets."

Neat. I've already got mine--I renewed without hesitation--but I didn't know they'd made these changes. Do you have any idea how many passes are out there?

I'd like to see them sign Escobar, a reliever (I'd like to see Fox first, Leskanic second or possibly both if the budget allows) and Graffanino now ... and make a Kielty for Lill deal. That would be good, and i think we then legitimately have a shot at a playoff spot in '04.

I think 190 innings, 14 wins, a 4.60 ish ERA and 110 K's can be expected from Pat without holding our expectations too high.

Do you have any idea how many passes are out there?

Nope.

I would've renewed without any push, too -- the phone guy just launched into his little pitch. The biggies were that because of complaints of overzealous ushers, the passes were for full SkyDeck, and that opening day tickets will be mailed out beforehand so that pass holders are guaranteed a seat on opening day.

So, since you're coming to a bunch of games you're joining the Cheer Club, right? Gonna make some noise for the Fightin' Jays? ;)

I love this signing. I mean, Pat Hentgen is Pat Hentgen. It's like Roberto coming back, but that's never going to happen.

Anyways, just wondering where I should get my Season Pass for? Is there a specific section you guys sit in, or does it matter?

I will be at the home opener with my drum... and for as many possible games after that.

Now, the best part about our 2004 opener is that Halladay will be pitching against the Tigers. Let me show you a little equation I came up with...

Halladay + Tigers = Blue Jays Win.

I think it's a good low-risk signing. My predictions: 170 IP, 4.50 ERA, 10-14 wins.

I don't think the Jays can contend without a solid #2 starter, however.

Anyone know Hentgen's career numbers at Skydome?

I've already stated my positive feelings on this trade but one thing about having HLH is that he'll absorb a few starts from Hentgen when he goes on 3 days rest, if need be.

http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/4744/splits?year=career&type=Pitching
Anyone know Hentgen's career numbers at Skydome?

COMN to see 'em.

Pat at SkyDome is pretty much the same as Pat everywhere else. There's little split. He has given up slightly fewer HR at the Dome but slightly more runs.

make a Kielty for Lill deal

That would be awesome. I am sure that if there are any Jays/A's trade possibilities, JP and Billy will discuss.

Current Tally:

Eric Hinske and Justin Miller for Billy Koch
Both teams win, although the Jays win slightly more. Koch was pumped and dumped quite nicely for Keith Foulke. The difference is that Hinske is still a Jay and Foulke will be gone. Advantage: JP.

Cory Lidle for Chris Mowday and Michael Rouse
A's win, as Jays have to pay Lidle $5M for less than $5M worth of performance. So, even if the kids that the A's got for Lidle don't ever touch a big league field, this is still good for the A's. One advantage for the Jays here is getting the compensation pick when somebody signs Lidle (his A categorisation being based largely on his 2002), but still: Advantage Billy (because he didnt have to pay Lidle in 2003).

Tom Wilson for Mike Kremblas
Willy has been decent, no real advantage here.

Jason Arnold to Toronto
Erubiel Durazo to Arizona
Felipe Lopez to Cincinnati
Elmer Dessens to Arizona
JP and Billy absolutely hoodwink Zona and Cincy. Jays get a top notch pitching prospect, A's get an OBP machine, the two NL clubs get to transfer one crappy pitcher from one to the other plus Cincy get Felipe, upon whom the jury is still out (but it doesn't look good). Advantage: JP and Billy.

Scores
JP.................................................... 1.5
Billy................................................. 1.5
Clubs that Attempt to Tangle with the JP and Billy.... 0

Erubiel Durazo to Arizona

Sorry, that should say Erubiel Durazo to Oakland

Leigh, the Jays won't get compensation on Lidle because to do so they would have to offer him arbitration on a $5 million salary. Coming off the type of year he had that's just too big a risk to take. Someone is going to sign Lidle for cheap and he may actually pitch fairly well for them; but the Jays won't be benefitting from it. It's looking like a weak trade with Michael Rouse having hit the way he did this year as a shortstop, a position which isn't solid for the Jays in the near future.

One advantage for the Jays here is getting the compensation pick when somebody signs Lidle (his A categorisation being based largely on his 2002)
I don't think the Jays are going to offer arbitration. No pick.

DOH!

OK

Leigh, I have to disagree that as of today's date JP and Billy are even on the Jason Arnold/Durazo swap. Billie got a decent (not great) year out of Durazo for cheap he will be with the A's next year again at modest prices. Arnold did not pitch for T.O. last year and by all indications his chances of seeing T.O. before Sept. this year are pretty low. Frankly, based on his AAA performance, Arnold's future productivity is in doubt. I recognize that Arnold has time to turn it around so that 2 years from now we might call it even or even a win for JP, but not now. As of now, Billie has a clear win of Durazo for Arnold. JP at best breaks even, Lopez for Arnold.

Great signing today of Hentgen. The fans love him and he can teach our youngsters quite a bit. Now lets see the Jays get a reliever and maybe Chris Gomez. Then a trade for a starter and I think the could be a real darkhorse for the wildcard next year. Lilly and Hentgen would add stability to the rotation if not a #2. Fox, Leskanic, Hawkins or Benitez can help out the pen and Chris Gomez can play 2nd or short and should come cheap. Great job again JP.

Great signing today of Hentgen. The fans love him and he can teach our youngsters quite a bit. Now lets see the Jays get a reliever and maybe Chris Gomez. Then a trade for a starter and I think the could be a real darkhorse for the wildcard next year. Lilly and Hentgen would add stability to the rotation if not a #2. Fox, Leskanic, Hawkins or Benitez can help out the pen and Chris Gomez can play 2nd or short and should come cheap. Great job again JP.

I think 190 innings, 14 wins, a 4.60 ish ERA and 110 K's can be expected from Pat without holding our expectations too high.

Except that he hasn't thrown 190 innings in any of the last three seasons. He certainly could, if he truly is in fact healed, but my mama always warned me about pitchers with arm problems (she also didn't let me grow up to be a cowboy).

From the Canadian Press report:

The 35-year-old right-hander seriously considered another offer from a team he wouldn't name, but ultimately decided with his family that Toronto was the best place for him both personally and professionally.

"They got the best pitcher in the league (Roy Halladay), they have arguably the best hitter in the league (Carlos Delgado), I started there, I'm comfortable there, I love the spring training area, I live and was born and raised three hours from the SkyDome," Hentgen, a Detroit native, said during a conference call.

"It has a lot of advantages from a personal standpoint for my family."

Ricciardi sees Hentgen in the fourth spot of a starting rotation still full of question marks behind Halladay, who won the Cy Young Award last week.

Ricciardi sees Hentgen in the fourth spot of a starting rotation still full of question marks behind Halladay

i.e., there are at least two more starting pitchers who will be signed.

Thank you, J.P. and the Blue Jays. This is awesome news.

My rough spreadsheet indicates that with a $50 million budget, the Jays still have $9.6 million left to spend on free agents. That is assuming a $8 million salary for Halladay, which would be higher in arbitration.

Most of the numbers are estimates. The Jays have only committed to $25.4 million in salaries so far, with Dave Berg's salary (he has a guaranteed deal but his 2004 salary hasn't been disclosed anywhere) needing to be added to that figure, so roughly $26.1 to $26.2 million. Other salariesm including likely settlements or arbitration awards, push that figure to $40.4 million.

Craig - does that include Lilly?

Anyways, just wondering where I should get my Season Pass for? Is there a specific section you guys sit in, or does it matter?

We usually figure out a meeting spot by e-mail pre-game and just show up there. It's not like the place is ever full, except on opening day.

Hrmm, maybe we should try to get a block of good seats for a Cheer Club Opening Day Rally or something?