Made these comments on another thread (Hijack Central) already, but the ramifications immediately seem to be ...

- Kendall stays in Pittsburgh.
- The All-Star catcher market (Hernandez, Pierzynski) is starting to close up. Uh-oh, Pudge ... looks like you're staying in Florida after Piazza moves to Baltimore!

The only reason I can think San Diego has for T-Long is that he has a better arm than Drew Brees.

I don't think any team would actually *want* Long, San Diego or otherwise. They just had to take him if they wanted Hernandez.

The last paragraph of the ESPN.com story on the trade reads:

"Oakland is still looking for another outfielder, Gammons reports, and general manager Billy Beane has long sought Bobby Kielty, now with Toronto after being traded by Minnesota last season. The Blue Jays want left-hander Ted Lilly in return."

http://economics.about.com
Strange deal.

Kotsay will make 5.5 per year in 2004, 2005, 2006 (16.5 million total).

From what I gather Long + Hernandez will make 16 mil in total between 2004 and 2005. I'd guess 7 million in 2004 and 9 million in 2005, but that's just a guess.

I'm not sure what to make of it. This could end up being one of those win-win deals.

Mike

Does anyone know what Lilly's contractual status is. How many years to UFA, what he is due next year, etc... .This sounds like the Lidle deal of last year, where we gave up 2 so-so prospects and took on the salary due. Not that I have an issue with Lilly or Lidle, they are both deemed to be serviceable ML SP, which we have a need for but not at the cost of Kielty. Is there a chance Lilly would be non-tendered and we could pick him up later in the off-season after the market shakes out a bit? Would we (i..e the Jays) want more to even things out, like an IF prospect - can German play SS?

How about Lilly and German for Kielty and Werth?

Who is the real Ted Lilly? The guy who was lights out in the playoffs? Or the guy who is posting not-star like numbers in the regular season? I don't think Beane is willing to give up on his arm quite yet. There is TINSTAPP and Lilly is a proven arm now. And would you, as a Jays' fan, be willing to sell out on Kielty before seeing him get higher up in the value scale?

When looking at the money, you have to consider that a roster spot has been opened up on the A's. Oakland will pay at least the minimum in 2004 and 2005 to the guy who takes Henandez' spot. So, Beane gets rid of the $15.865MM he had to pay Long and Hernandez over two years and gets Kotsay's and Player B's $17MM and change over three years. This is cheaper on a year by year basis for Oakland. Hernandez would have likely hit better than Melhuse and company but Kotsay will hit better than Long. I guess this is more even than I thought at first glance.

I can't say for certain, but it looks like it may be Lilly's first arbitration year.

It would be vastly amusing if the Jays ended up with Ted Lilly, Jason Arnold and John-Ford Griffin, while the Yankees eventually dumped Jeff Weaver. Vastly.

I'm not huge on Lilly -- he hasn't really shown anything on a consistent basis to excite me -- but still I would support a straight Kielty-for-Lilly deal, or one that involved expendable prospects. The Jays have no shortage of outfielders at or near the bigs, and young lefty starters are hard to come by, even if they're just #3 guys. Bobby has a pretty good ceiling, true, but the Jays need pitching now.

http://economics.about.com
Count me out on a Lilly-Kielty deal.

I can't imagine Kielty's value being any lower than it is right now? Why sell? He's a good player coming off of a bad year.

Secondly, why would you want Ted Lilly when you can have Glendon Rusch without giving up players? Heck, Lilly wasn't all that much better than Darren Oliver last year, who apparently scares the heck out of Mick and Mr. of the Corput.

Cheers,

Mike

How about Lilly and German for Kielty and Werth?

I'd be up for that.

Trade Kielty and all of a sudden, you have Gross as next years starting right fielder with Cat in left, Wells in center and Johnson there to play any of those positions when the other guys get off days.

I think Kielty for Lilly would be great. Obviously JP isn't so sure or it would have happened by now.

I just saw the trade after coming here and to me it makes absolutly no sense at all. I know Long had to be traded to someone but it seems bizarre that Hernandez would be the player that would be traded with him. Oakland's big three are always raving about how he handles them, and he was considered the reason Lilly turned it around this year. So now they the A's have Kotsay who is an upgrade over anyone in their outfield right now (but anyone is!). What it seems to me is that Long actually had NEGATIVE trade value so Beane needed to throw someone in with big trade value to balence this out. The salaries also worked out but I think there could have been many other player who could have gone in instead of Hernandez. Basically I have no idea why this deal was done and I'm a tad ticked as Oakland is one of my favorite teams.

We may make dislike Long and see him as a chink in Billy Beane's armour. However, what gets forgotten is that this trade is made possible by one of Billy Beane's most underrated moves---picking up Adam Melhuse as a six-year free agent.

As for Lilly for Kielty? I'd do it in a heartbeat. He may be Lidle version 2.0 but he won't be paid like it. I for one, would like to see Reed Johnson as a full-time outfielder. I understand the argument that Kielty is an on base machine. However, the dropoff from a Kielty to a Reed Johnson won't be as large as the upgrade from a Hendrickson to a Lilly.

Besides, the Sparkplug is the type of player that makes it fun to watch baseball. A guy who may not have all the talent in the world but who busts his butt and makes the most of what he has. If clubhouse chemistry exists, then this is the type of guy who you want on the team.

Actually, after reading the ESPN article, it sounds more like Beane isn't so sure he wants to trade Lilly yet. I hope he changes his mind.

I guess Weaver's coming here too... ;->

But back to the Pads trade (couldn't agree more with Ben) : the money is a wash ($6M per side after adjustments) so ignore the 2 OFs bad salaries...OAK loses a good #4 OF and a good starting C and gets a mediocre RF and needs to find a catcher...what's in it for them?

Would you trade Kotsay for Hernandez straight up if their salaries were the same? Cuz that's what happened...

Seems very odd to me

Giles in CF, eh? That should work out well.

Hey, If the Yanks wanted to trade Weaver, I think he would be a good pickup for the Jays. He just has to get out of the Bronx.

OAK loses a good #4 OF... and gets a mediocre RF

What trade are you talking about?

Oakland gets the ability to have a bit more spending cash over the next couple of years that they can use to try and put a winner out on the field while Hudson, Mulder and Zito are still on the team

If the Yanks wanted to trade Weaver, I think he would be a good pickup for the Jays

I think the Jays' focus on chemistry would preclude picking up a guy like Weaver. I could be wrong, but it strikes me that it would be a counterproductive move from that standpoint whatever skills he might bring - and he's also due $15.5 million over the next two years.

He is owed 15.5 million that you get the Yanks to pay.

Giles in CF, eh? That should work out well.

You know, the Padres could do worse than signing Jose Cruz Jr. for centrefield. He can handle the position defensively, and everyone knows what to expect from him with the bat by now. He's basically a Kotsay clone, but should come way cheaper.

Cruz probably would be a good pickup for the Padres but then what do you do with Nady? I guess what happens is that Giles plays left, Nady is right, Cruz in center and Long sits on the bench. Perfect scenario

Chris, look at every past thread that includes the name WEAVER. You'll notice a gag reflex that accompanies such a name. And for good reason too, he can have a high ceiling but he'll never reach it with that attitude. Would you want him in your clubhouse? He wouldn't make my little league team.

Since I know votes are being recorded, I am very supportive of the bloc that would welcome a Lily for Kielty trade. Mainly because a reasonably good pitcher who will sure up a number 3 spot in an otherwise shakey back-end is more valuable than an OF on a team with a log jam of corner outfielders. That's not even taking into consideration the fact that he's left-handed and likely to command a fair salery.

I think Weaver is a lot better pitcher than he has been the past couple of years. I don't know if the clubhouse is really an issue. The players and manager are supposed to police that and I think both could do a good job of making sure Weaver's head was in the right place. Besides, with the Yanks paying the way, if it doesn't work out, you just drop him. Just make sure you don't give the Yanks anything good for him.

Kielty for Lilly? That's bordering on a high price to pay. Werth and an additional almost prospect seems more appropriate to me.

Oh, I think the Jays have to deal for Ted, just so the headline writers can tag a Geoff Baker article on the trade "Lilly White Jays."

(Just kidding, Geoff.)

The question will be whether the A's *need* to move Lilly's contract. With Tejada almost certainly leaving and Foulke maybe not coming back, I don't think they'll be in a position where they have to non-tender him.

I think Lilly for Kielty is a fair move for both sides although I wouldn't mind seeing what Kielty can do after an off-season of conditioning. I might even expand the deal to see if the A's would part with a young prospect like Blanton or Rouse, either of whom would give the Jays better depth at key positions.

You know the Jays traded Rouse to the A's for Lidle last year

making sure Weaver's head was in the right place.

The right place for Weaver's head is anywhere but Toronto. Great stuff, though. What a waste of talent.

Ted Lilly for the difference between Bobby Kielty and Gabe Gross is fine with me. Putting to rest questions about his "coachability" and work ethic, Lilly improved dramatically in August, stepped it up another notch in September and was lights-out against Boston in the playoffs. He's a lefty coming into his own at 28, and Halladay-Lilly-Hentgen-Hendrickson-Towers (assuming no additional moves) would give teams a different look every day. It may be Lidle v. 2.0 -- Oakland's #4 becomes Toronto's #2 -- but if Ted stays healthy, it should turn out better.

I think Beane might want a pitching prospect and J.P. might want an infielder, so maybe they are working on a larger deal, and we know they like to involve other teams, but the straight swap works. For Jays fans, it amounts to Lilly for Stewart, who was leaving anyway. If you're not a Lilly fan, I suppose it may not seem like "enough" for Kielty, but for both teams, I think it's trading from strength to fill a need; a win-win.

Of course, it's all speculation. The real Oakland trade is hard enough to decipher, let alone the rumoured ones. Seems to me that the Padres got Hernandez for the difference (albeit considerable) between Kotsay and Long. They must be happy. Meanwhile, the A's get rid of Long, upgrade in CF and commit to more AB for Adam Melhuse, who helped his career with a 364/451/682 second half and that 3-for-4 against the Red Sox. If Kotsay stays healthy, it's a great deal for them too.

Kevin Towers called the shot in his BP interview; when he said a catcher with an AL playoff team, I was sure he was going after Pierzynski.

You know the Jays traded Rouse to the A's for Lidle last year

Yeah. Who knew he'd hit .300 with a .390 obp in AA this year?

Yeah, who knew he would have a great run with the US Olympic team too. Batting .414 and an OBP of .500

http://www.baseballamerica.com/cgi-bin/statsfindplayer.pl?player=Rouse

It's a great move for the Padres, assuming they get a real CF to complete the deal. (Whatever Hernandez brings to the Padres in his ability to call a game would be thoroughly undermined by Giles' inability to field the ball in CF.)

But it's another genius move for cash-strapped Beane, since the difference between Hernandez and Melhuse/Brown shouldn't be as big as the chasm between Kotsay and Long. Kotsay's a very solid CF with great on-base skills--assuming he can stay healthy.

The big question for the A's in 2004, especially with the inevitable loss of Miguel Tejada, is whether Jermaine Dye can revert to pre-injury form.

Coming from the A's side of things I would not do a Lilly-Kielty trade. Kielty is unproven and reminds me of Cust-type hype player. Lilly would be worth more in a mid-season trade when Blanton might be ready for a prmotion from AAA (and when Billy knows what his team needs...).

I am not too excited about Kotsay but it does free up $4-5 million (in addition to the end of Dye's $10 million contract) in 2005 which will hopefully go to signing Chavez.

Oakland was already 9th in the AL in runs scored and OPS in 2003, and they'll be without Tejada, Hernandez and Jose Guillen next year. Not having Dye at full speed could be disastrous:

CF Kotsay
1B Hatteberg
DH Durazo
3B Chavez
C Melhuse
LF Byrnes
2B Ellis
RF McMillon?
SS Crosby

That lineup would be plenty of incentive to go get a Bobby Kielty.

Holy! I guess I know where to come to get some love. Not even I believe Bill Beane is going to plug me into the everyday catchers spot. But, thanks for the fantasy wishes though, now let's all return to reality.

Rouse hit .260 with .341 OBP at AA last year with a LOT more power. Considering he was repeating the level, .300/.390 with less power isn't all that impressive.

He was never the non-prospect that some painted him out to be last year, but whenever a player repeats a level, you can't take the numbers at face value.

Considering how Oaklands pitchers raved about Hernandez and his game calling skills I am not sure about this trade. Jeremy Brown looked pretty poor last year and then got hurt and he will never be mistaken for a good defensive catcher. I think this deal hurts Oakland and Melhuse hasnt proven he is an everyday catcher. Maybe Beane has a cheap free agent signing in the works but I would shudder if Oakland has only Brown and Melhuse as their catchers next year.

According to Blue Manc, Lilly received $325K last year and I would guess-timate that would end his 0-3 years. He probably becomes arbitration eligible this year and would probably receive in the range of $1-$2M. If, and that's a big if, the Jays control Lilly for 3 more years then a Lilly for Kielty deal is a fair exchange of talent. It becomes a prime example of dealing from strength for both organizations.

http://economics.about.com
Apparently the A's need another catcher. How about Tom Wilson for Ted Lilly?

No, you're right. That'd be lopsided. They should through in Mark Mulder. :)

I didn't think I'd be in the minority RE: Lilly for Kielty. Wonder what Gleeman thinks.

Cheers,

Mike

Coach -- that reminded me...

I predicted this trade!

There are a lot of catchers who are replacement level free agents on the market so the A's can probably find someone to fill in for a year. There's also reason to believe Melhuse would do alright as a regular catcher. It makes sense from an Oakland point of view because they needed a good centerfielder which Kotsay should be and they needed to somehow lose Terrence Long whose salary was making him a way too expensive 4th outfielder. They can now focus Tejada's salary on outfield improvement and hope that Crosby and Melhuse can take up much of the slack at SS and C.

There's also reason to believe Melhuse would do alright as a regular catcher

Where is this reason?? He had 77 at bats last year. In 2001 he had 71 at bats and and the year before he had 24. There is absolutely no reason to think that he will do allright has a regular because he has yet to be one. I do think the A's did very well to get rid of Long and I predict a signing of a free agent catcher in the near future. I wouldnt mind seeing if JP can get Blanton with Lilly for Kielty and maybe another prospect.

Melhuse hasnt proven he is an everyday catcher

How can someone prove to be an everyday catcher if he isn't given the chance to catch everyday?

By the way, is there no love for Reed Johnson here? Everyone has assumed that if a Lilly/Kielty deal is made, Gross would become the everyday rightfielder.

If this deal happens it would be a good trade for the jays. We have 3 other premium outfield prospects in AAA next year, each with huge upsides. Werth(slugging,defence), Gross(OBP, average),
and Rios( All star talent) have a higher or equal ceiling compared to kielty. We could easily start the year with cat, johnson, and werth ... and call up rios/gross when need be. Moreover, our main weakness is left handed pitching, and this trade allows us to get this at a very low price. There is however a risk -- lily might get injured (I heard he had tj surgery), which would bring us all the way back to square one. However, I think this is a reasonable risk to take, and this trade frees up money to resign escobar on his terms -- with change to spare on some real closer. Hence, we could actually contend if our starting pitchers remain healthy ... which would beat looking at a team with hendrickson,towers, and wasdin getting a chance to brake some futility records.

I doubt oakland would do this deal though ...

p.s. anyone heard rumours florida might trade a.j. burnett, or penny --- their needs (2b, catcher) are in line with our strength and this guy has a huge upside and might be able to contribute right away. thoughts ?

(hudson + cache for penny) or hudson for burnett ...

Considering how Oaklands pitchers raved about Hernandez and his game calling skills I am not sure about this trade.

Losing Rick Peterson will hurt more than Hernandez. But at least Oakland has established a culture throughout their entire system that will enable their AAA coach to fill in in the big leagues.

And in terms of offense, Hernandez is a good catcher with a good bat, but he's not Posada or Piazza. Heck, he's not even A.J.

Kotsay is a huge offensive improvement over Singleton, and should provide similar defense. This is a good deal for a no-money club like Oakland, although picking up another OF bat would certainly help keep the offense in good shape.

I wonder if the A's will be able to convince Foulke to stay for a reasonable amount of money. Usually spending big dollars on a closer isn't a good idea, but Keith is one of the few exceptions. And who else is in the market for a great reliever that can assure him that he won't lose his closer job like he did in Chicago? Not NYY. Not BOS.

this trade frees up money to resign escobar on his terms

How so? Kielty is making peanuts for the foreseeable future. That is a main reason why he was more valuable to Toronto than Shannon Stewart. Lilly will be making more than Kielty next year.

anyone heard rumours florida might trade a.j. burnett, or penny --- their needs (2b, catcher) are in line with our strength

While Florida will be losing Luis Castillo, how can you suggest that this is an area of strength for Toronto? If the O-Dawg goes down who plays second? Dave Berg? I like the middle infield prospects that the Jays have but they aren't ready to play at the major league level.

As for Florida being weak at catcher. Even if they don't sign Pudge they have Mike Redmond and Ramon Castro who are adequate catchers. In fact, last spring I was arguing in the Box that the Jays should liberate Castro or Redmond from Florida...then Greg Myers went and made me look stupid with his tremendous play.

No more T-Long! Woohoo! I'll have one less stiff to scribe about if I keep doing the A's gig, but who cares?

Bobby Kielty will not help the A's. His numbers, already mediocre to begin with, will look worse playing in Oakland. Getting rid of Long is the right place to begin, and I really like Mark Kotsay as an ancillary/complementary player on a real offense, but the A's are going to be desperate for runs if they think Kielty is the answer to their need for a big bat. Jermaine Dye may or may not be the answer, either, but I know for certain Kielty is not.

How so? Kielty is making peanuts for the foreseeable future. That is a main reason why he was more valuable to Toronto than Shannon Stewart. Lilly will be making more than Kielty next year.

It's a question of opportunity cost. If we don't get lily we have to sign a third starter. It can cost 3-4 million, which we mostly save by getting lily to pitch for much less (savings 3 million this year).
Add this money to the 2 year deal esc. was offered and you meet his terms.

While Florida will be losing Luis Castillo, how can you suggest that this is an area of strength for Toronto?

Last year we wanted to trade hudson to KC since we thought cat could play 2b. Besides that, the jays have howie clark, dave berg, and russ adams will be in AAA by the middle of next season (and I am not mentioning alvarez who slid this year). Hence, this year we could use a platoon to replace hudson, and next year we will pick between russ adams, dominic rich, etc -- or convert the pitcher we get into a 2B (if he does well ... ).

And the Lilly deal is official.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/11/18/sports1917EST0434.DTL

Trading Kielty for Lilly is a no-brainer. I'd bet the reason this trade hasn't gone through yet is that it's actually

Kielty + big name prospect for Lilly + lesser prospect.

Well not really,

Kielty + propect for Lilly

This is my first post, but have been a long time lurker. It's now official, Lilly is now a member of the Jays rotation. Click here to read more. Kielty and a PTBNL or cash for Lilly.

Holy crap, Lurker is right.

Who wants to bet that the chances of resigning Escobar have now dropped to 0?

Kielty, Kotsay (although SF Gate reports that it's not yet official), Dye in the OF.... that leaves money to resign Foulke.

The Jays have so much depth in the outfield in the minors and with Johnson, Wells, and Cat that I think this is a great move. Lilly, Hentgen and Halladay is a great start to the rotation. Who knows what other moves might come next.

Jurgen smile ... the jays have more money for escobar now.

Great deal as long as the ptbnl isn't a top prospect ... I would rather give up cash (though I am not the jays management)

So is Oakland saving money for Foulke? Tejada? My own unsubstantiated rumour is they make a run at Sexson. They need power in a big way and Richie seems like Beane's type of player.

Lilly, Hentgen and Halladay is a great start to the rotation.

It still sounds like exactly where we were last year: Halladay and a bunch of high risk scrubs. Don't get me wrong, I like the trade. But without a Millwood-type signing to solidify the #2 spot, the Jays are just treading water until the New Haven kids show up.

the jays have more money for escobar now

I don't see how that's possible, Lilly makes more than Kielty (I'd guess) and cash may be going to Oakland. I'd also guess that the prospect is pretty decent as cash is king in todays market hence for PTBNL = cash, PTBNL must be pretty good.

NDG, Tejada is as good as gone. No way will Beane put himself through the headache of watching Tejada swing at pitches in the dirt on a 0-2 count anymore.

Closer or not, Foulke's a great pitcher and Beane knows it. He's that rare closer (Gagne, Wagner, Smoltz, Hoffman, Rivera are the few others) who actually deserves the hype the role often garners. I bet Billy's trying to convince Keith and his agent that he won't see any Chicago-like headaches if he stays with the A's.

If they can't sign Foulke, and this Kotsay deal falls through, Billy should join the bidding for Mike Cameron. How much will he cost? $6 M/yr?

As for Sexson, Richie don't walk much for a corner IF. I'm sure Beane would take him, but I doubt he covets him. (And with Milwaukee's uncertain roster plans, goodness knows what they want in return.)

http://economics.about.com
Meh.

A lot smart people on here like it, so I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt. For what it's worth my Dad likes the trade as well.

Cheers,

Mike

From espn.com: lilly earns 335,000 ... since cash can't exceed more than 1 or so million (or so I heard) lilly costs 1.335 million per year. Moreover, when it is a good prospects usually it is phrased "The prospects is likely ... x ...".

If that is so, than we addressed the #3,#4 needs with 3.5 million - 4 million dollars. The jays can now easily afford to keep escobar ... and why not. Millwood, colon, petite, and anyone else worth having will be out of our reach. Everybody is looking for pitchers. Escobar will at least be a good #4, with the potential of a #2 and we don't give up any draft picks. And, he said he will take a 2 year deal (we can no go to 7 or mil/year). Think about it this way, we trade lidle and sturtze to obtain lily, hentgen, and escobar this year. What a bargain!

Who wants to bet that the chances of resigning Escobar have now dropped to 0?

Considering Lilly won't make that much, and the Jays still have a need for a front of the rotation starter I would not make that bet.

--

Well, the FCat signing makes a lot more sense now.

Kielty for Lilly is a good risk for the Jays considering their OF depth and need for pitching, but I don't look at Lilly at anything more than a '3' starter.

I had really high hopes for Kielty with the Jays so it's a little disappointing to see him go, but the team should be better overall because of the trade.

I was getting antsy for things to happen, and now the Jays get 2 starters in one day. Certainly didn't expect that when I woke up.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sexsori01.shtml
Jurgen, check out Sexson's BBref page (homepage link). His walk rate gets better year by year, 98 of 'em in 1993.

I have no doubt that Beane covets Foulke. I think though that Foulke:

a) is also coveted by saber teams Toronto and Boston who have a lot more money than Oakland.
b) has had enough high save years that even the non-saber GM's will offer him something decent.

I think Foulke will get 7-8 million a year. I just can't see Beane putting that much coin in 80-90 innings a year.

I believe Sexson is owed 8.5 million for 2003. I think Beane would be willing to pay that for 700PA out of his cleanup spot.

I don't know why I'm making supporting arguments for something I just made up 15 minutes ago. I must be bored.

By the way Sexson had 98 walks in 2003 ;)

This trade totally depends on the player to be named. It's hard to go far wrong trading a cheap outfielder for a relatively cheap left handed starter (both with 3-4 year left before arbitration). Kielty was displaying every sign of having platoon issues. If so, he and Johnson would offer similar lefty mashing skills. If the prospect is marginal then there is serious risk of this blowing up on JP. If not, its a reasonable risk reward trade. Both guys are cheap and both have upside.

And is owed 8.5 million for 2004

I don't Milwaukee will ask for much in return because they are desparately trying to reduce payroll, Sexson's a FA in 2005, and they have this GM ......

Kielty's ceiling, IMO is much higher than Lilly's. On the other hand, right now, for the Blue Jays I think this is for the best. The rotation is looking solid, and if they can add one good reliever to go with A-Lo, Pollite, and Kershner along with even a 3-4 starter I think they are a wild card contender. I mean, they would usually be but with Boston/NYY int heir division it is always tougher. If they sign one top reliever (Hawkins comes to mind) or two solid ones (I've tooted the horn for Leskanic and Fox already) that's a good start. An Escobar resigning, or someone of similar value and I'm callin for 94 wins.

I usually don't post here, but I thought I should tell you that Lilly is arbitration eligible.

The Associated Press says it's either a player or cash (currency, not the catcher). If it could also be cash, that more than likely means it would be a long-shot prospect if the two teams were able to agree on a player. I wouldn't lose any sleep over the PTBNL.

This trade totally depends on the player to be named

In a cash or PTBNL move it seems to me that the player is never a significant prospect. Probably similar to the players the Jays gave up for Lilly. Maybe they show something, but you're not counting on it, and you won't miss them if they do turn out.

What Beane can offer Foulke that none of the other bigger clubs, saber-friendly or not, can offer is job security--what happened in '02 in Chicago will not happen in Oakland. That might be worth a discount to Keith. (And I think he'll sign for closer to $5 M, given the current thinking is that Wagner is overpaid at $7 M.)

Given Beane's recent acquisitions, I think it's clear Beane covets the ability to get on base (Hatteberg, Durazo, now Kielty) over raw power (Sexson) all things (ie. salary) being equal.

As for Kelvim, signing Escobar to a multi-million deal would be foolish since the Jays are essentially getting the same risky upside for much less money with Lilly. (In the words of ING direct, "Save your money".) Rather than resign Escobar, J.P. and Keith now either need to pony up and get a good pitcher for around the $8 M+ mark, or try some more no cost options like Lilly and Hentgen.

Just read an interesting report on the ESPN insiders which had the Jays shopping Hudson to Cleveland for Cliff Lee but the Indians said no thanks. I guess this trade nixes any that deal.

BP's Jonah Keri in a chat:

Obviously the A's have Rich Harden to fill the number four slot, and they may not lose a beat with Justin Duscherererererer a good bet to grab the #5 slot. But I'm still a little surprised Lilly couldn't have netted more in trade. For what the Jays and A's both have and need, this could be a win-win, but I like the deal from Toronto's perspective a lot.

Sorry about the poor grammar on the previous post but can you imagine if the Jays were to trade Hudson for another good cheap young starter how solid the rotation might look for next year and years to come. I just dont think JP likes Hudson that much which has been the skuttlebutt for the last 2 years. He is very good defensively but had a poor OBP and looks more and more like a platoon guy.

Zonk is right Lilly is arbitration eligible see the following link:

http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/sports/baseball/mlb/oakland_athletics/7113980.htm

I still like the deal but now I am wondering how much this deal will end up costing the Jays next year....

I said Kielty for Lilly is a high price to pay earlier and nothing has happened in the last 4 hours to change my mind. Moffatt was right when he said his value is lower than it will be at any other time. You don't sell Nortel at 67 cents.

Oh, well. What's done is done.

What does Lilly get? 2.5 mil? 3? Halladay agreed to a 3.825 mil contract coming off a 19 win season so I'd imagine Lilly is worth at least a million less

I can't imagine Lilly getting any more than 2.5 million.

his value is lower than it will be at any other time

Not true. Kielty is an OBP guy, so the best buyer is Beane (because other GM's don't realize his true value), but Beane is too smart to be swayed by Kielty's poor performance this year because he is smart enough to chalk it up to inadequate sample size. Essentially: Kielty's low value now is only perceived, not actual; Beane is smart enough to know this; Beane is the Kielty buyer, no matter how high Kielty's stock is; Beane is impervious to misleading fluctuations in performance.

Wow, that was convoluted. Sorry. What I mean is that Beane is the buyer, and to Beane, Kielty is as valuable now as he would be if he would have hit .320 in 2003. You can't buy low sell high with Beane. So you sell at real value, which is what happened here.

I said Kielty for Lilly is a high price to pay earlier and nothing has happened in the last 4 hours to change my mind. Moffatt was right when he said his value is lower than it will be at any other time. You don't sell Nortel at 67 cents.

But I don't think JP sold Kielty at 67 cents here. If there's one team that's going to value Kielty over all other teams it's Oakland, and I don't think JP is so desperate for pitching that he would 'sell' Kielty at less than JP's perceived value.

D'oh!

Leigh beat me to the punch.

Yeah, but if he HAD hit .320 in 2003, there would be about 20 GMs interested in him instead of just Beane.

http://economics.about.com
The trade took two years to complete, involved 8 teams, but once Oakland chooses their player to be named later, it will finally be over.

Here's the trade, for those of you keeping score:

TORONTO GETS
Arnold
Griffin
Lilly

YANKEES GET
Weaver

DETROIT GETS
Pena
German
Bonderman

OAKLAND GETS
Durazo
Kielty
Venafro
Perry

MINNESOTA GETS
Stewart

CINCINATTI GETS
Lopez

ARIZONA GETS
Dessens

TEXAS GETS
Hart
Ludwick
Laird
Ramos

I think I've gotten everyone. *WHEW*

Cheers,

Mike

Where's the new thread?

From where I sit here is our current 24 man payroll (minus a closer)

Guaranteed Contracts:
Cat - 2.3
VW - 0.7
Hinske - 0.8
Delgado - 18.5
Myers - 0.9
Berg - 0.7
Hentgen - 2.2
Total - 26.1 million

Not-Arbitration Eligible
Rookie group ($300,000) - Reed, Cash, Howie, Towers, Kershner, Rule 5
Raise to get to (350,000) group - O-Dog, Phelps, Wilson, Hendrickson, A-Lo)
Pete Walker gets $450,000 because he made 425,000 last year

Total - 4.0 million

Arbitration Eligible (estimated contract)
Woodward - 1.0
Doc - 7.0
Lilly - 2.5
Politte - 1.0
Trever Miller - 0.4

Total - 11.9 million

Full Total 42 million

Needs (In order): Closer, SS Help (replace Howie Clark), Starter (Replace Hendrickson or Towers), 4th Outfielder (replace Tom Wilson)

Jurgen, I'm not sure a new thread is a good idea at this point -- we've had at least 30 posts on the deal already and there's more to come. The best discussion is taking place here already, ao I'm inclined to leave it as is. But I will update the intro paragraph so that people know where to find the thread. More comments soon.

Anyone else think grabbing Hentgen and Lilly gives the Jays more leverage in resigning Escobar? Not as much of an air of desperation...?

Good deal IMO. JP moves to 4/4 in the dp scorebook.

Anyone else think grabbing Hentgen and Lilly gives the Jays more leverage in resigning Escobar? Not as much of an air of desperation...?

No. There's plenty of teams interested in Escobar, and at worst he could always accept arbitration.

given the current thinking is that Wagner is overpaid at $7 M

I thought the thinking is that Wagner is overpaid at $11 million.

The limit on cash transactions is $2 million not $1 million. Hence, I still think the PTBNL is going to be a mid-level prospect (Brandon League?) which is going to upset a lot of people on this board.

From the Blue Jays homepage:

All offseason, the prevailing wisdom surrounding the Blue Jays was that they wanted to upgrade their pitching staff. On Tuesday, they added two key arms in one day, turning their rotation from a question mark into an area of strength.
An area of strength? Is that THE overstatement of the century or what? Steinbrenner would be in panic mode at this point with the rotation we have.

NDG:

According to MLB Player contracts, Wagner's due $8 M in 2004 with a $3 M buyout (or $9 M team option) in 2005. Not quite the same thing.

What the story on Lilly's health--anyone?

Someone mentioned TJ surgery; ESPN's player description (following the 2002 season) says "Everything looked so promising as the 2002 season progressed, but it got away from him when he developed a sore shoulder. During his rehab, Lilly worked with Oakland pitching coach Rick Peterson to change his delivery and reduce the strain on his shoulder. Lilly should add another quality arm to the best rotation in baseball in 2003."

I'm not sure it's that Beane prefers OBP to power; it's just that generally OBP guys (Cat, Durazo, Kielty, etc) are cheaper than power and average guys. He's just trying to stretch his dollars as far as they can go and still keep Hudson, Mulder, Zito, and a relief ace intact.

Damn I go away to snowy Banff for a few days hiatus...come back and check the box and find out J.P.'s Jays have the makings of a legitimate rotation.

I'm utterly amazed we got a solid MLB veteran left handed pitcher for Kielty. Now until we hear who the PTNL actually is , I can't make any definitive comment, but boy this looks good to me.Both teams traded from a strength to patch a weakness.

Lilly was very strong down the stretch and looked very solid in the play-offs, he's not Barry Zito, but given the Blue-Jays offence I think he can be fairly successfull.

As for Hengten also big thumbs up. He only signed for 1 year since he feels he'll establish a higher contract in 2005 after a strong 2004 campaign. I think he's right in his positive outlook which bodes well for the team. I have no qualms about his injury status as T.J. surgery is almost always successfull.

The Jays will not resign Escobar. Billy and J.P. have clearly been talking about this deal for as long as us BB readers, and my guess is that J.P. finally got the vibe that Escobar didn't want to sign for what J.P. was offering and excepted the trade. With Lilly, that's money they should now devote to improving the bullpen (which doesn't necessarily mean blowing it all on a "closer"--I have enough faith in Lopez should the Jays get another couple of good arms to help get that far on non-Halladay starts).

I said Kielty for Lilly is a high price to pay earlier and nothing has happened in the last 4 hours to change my mind. Moffatt was right when he said his value is lower than it will be at any other time. You don't sell Nortel at 67 cents.


Yah, but Ted Lilly is a pretty damned good pitcher. Potentially dominating. I think he might be worth a lot more than Kielty. Which is why there is a PTBNL going to the A's.

Jurgen,

Thanks for the info on Wagner, I didn't realize that. Every report I've seen has said $11 mil for 2004. Is it a forgone conclusion that his option won't be picked up? That doesn't make any sense to me as while $9 mil is too much, the $3mil buyout means that it's really just a $6 mil marginal cost.

The limit on cash transactions is $2 million not $1 million. Hence, I still think the PTBNL is going to be a mid-level prospect (Brandon League?) which is going to upset a lot of people on this board.

Eh? A bit of a leap in logic I think. A PTBNL later could be anyone and most likely it's one of the players that the Jays will expose to the Rule V draft; that's the only reason not to announce the player right now unless it is a player who was drafted in 2003 (similar to Jason Perry being the PTBNL in the Griffin trade).

If it was a prominent prospect like a Brandon League there would be no reason for it not to be announced since there are no Rule V protection issues and he was drafted back in '01. It could very well be a player on the bubble like Godwin, Rich, Chulk, Reimers, Gassner or any of the extra guys the Jays have kicking around between AA and AAA. It could also be one of the well-performing pitchers or hitters the Jays drafted in '03.

If it's a guy the level of Brandon League I'll eat my hat.

The Jays will not resign Escobar. Billy and J.P. have clearly been talking about this deal for as long as us BB readers, and my guess is that J.P. finally got the vibe that Escobar didn't want to sign for what J.P. was offering and excepted the trade. With Lilly, that's money they should now devote to improving the bullpen (which doesn't necessarily mean blowing it all on a "closer"--I have enough faith in Lopez should the Jays get another couple of good arms to help get that far on non-Halladay starts).

I'm not sure that's true. If Kelvim tested the market and was willing to sign for close to what the Jays offered, I think they'd consider it. Halladay/Escobar/Lilly/Hentgen/Towers is a lot more sound than Halladay/Lilly/Hentgen/Pitcher X/Towers.

If the Jays can't bring back Escobar, I hope they go hard after Miguel Batista, assuming he's not offered arbitration by Arizona. I'd be almost as happy with that rotation. That might actually be the better option for them as they can get the draft picks and probably have more money left to spend on the pen than if they re-signed Escobar.

Oops, the limit is $1 million not $2 million.

Given Billy Beane's track record, it wouldn't surprise me if the PTNL is a significant part of this trade. Remember, BB is one of, if not the best GM in the game. He's a very smart cookie who is skilled at buying low, selling high (think Lidle, who also came off a stellar finish the season before being traded to TO. Even Arnold and Ford-Griffin may be guys who don't quite have what it takes--and which was perceived by BB ahead of everyone else).

The advantages for Beane of Kielty-for-Lilly:

- A solid 27-year old OF (high OBP, decent power, speed, defense) who will remain cheap for the next few years. Kielty may consolidate into a .280/.380/.440 player)

- An interesting PTNL (or cash)...

Lilly, on the other hand, has a respectable but not stellar track record (career ERA: 4.68), is a flyball pitcher relocating to cosy Skydome, is arbitration eligible, has a history of arm troubles (which, it's true, may no longer be a factor), and is sometimes viewed as a pitcher who doesn't quite get it (Gammons described him as "hardheaded" last summer).

Not to put too much of a damper on the deal. Lilly may do well as a #4 in Toronto. I just don't think he should be viewed as a saviour. We've definitely had enough of guys "who will give us innings"--Sturze, Lidle, Tam, Creek, etc.

If it was a prominent prospect like a Brandon League there would be no reason for it not to be announced since there are no Rule V protection issues and he was drafted back in '01. It could very well be a player on the bubble like Godwin, Rich, Chulk, Reimers, Gassner or any of the extra guys the Jays have kicking around between AA and AAA. It could also be one of the well-performing pitchers or hitters the Jays drafted in '03.

Of course you could be right, but I don't see what Beane would do with any of these guys, which is why I think it'll be a high risk/high reward kind of guy. The reason for the PTBNL could simply be there may be a choice of guys and JP gets a chance to finish his roster tinkering before he decides who he's gonna give up (or if he doesn't want to give up anyone, go with the cash). League may be too much but the guys you mention would be too little.

It's tough to fill that niche of experience, upside, and affordability and Lilly is the type of guy that fills it. And so is Kielty which is why the deal makes so much sense for both teams.

I wouldn't every presume Lilly was a saviour but Kielty wasn't necessarily one either. And with the excess the Jays have in the outfield I just see this trade as a no brainer. It's a hard trade not to make because Lilly has a higher ceiling than he's shown so far and he'll probably be at least average as long as he's healthy. If you can get a pitcher like that who's only entering his first year of arbitration, I think you're doing well.

Lilly will cost between 2.5 and 3.0 million in arbitration IMO...Matt Stairs for instance would at least replace Kielty's production at 0.5 million more than Kielty (as might Gabe Gross for even less) - we never needed Kielty beyond 2004 anyway - and the PTBNL I guess has a max value of 1.0 million

So, if we signed Lilly for 1 year at 4.0 million today as a Free Agent, how would everyone feel? - considering everyone is jumping for joy over Batista at between 5 and 6 and Escobar as a possibility at 6.0 - I think if Lilly was a free agent and we signed to such a deal most would be happy

I don't agree that Escobar is gone for sure. Once the Jays offer him arbitration, the draft pick compensation will deter a lot of teams from offering him a contract. Losing draft picks for a mediocre starters isn't the best idea in any market, especially in our down FA market.

I like the deal. As I've mentioned before, I'm not a huge Lilly booster -- Toronto is his fifth organization (Dodgers, Expos, Yankees, A's, Jays), and pretty soon you have to accept that what you see is what you get. In his case, that's a mid-4.00s ERA, a hit an inning, a lot of strikeouts, more walks than you'd necessarily like, and about 6 innings a start. I call that a sufficient #3 starter these days, somewhat ahead of what Pat Hentgen projects to be this year. Lilly did have a great second half and playoff run -- but so did Cory Lidle in 2002. He's your basic mid-rotation guy, with the added advantage of being youngish (28 next year) and lefthanded (that is a real plus). There is always the chance he could break out -- though it's a myth that lefties develop later, so I wouldn't invest heavily in that chance.

To my mind, though, Lilly was still easily worth Bobby Kielty. BK was an interesting commodity, to be sure, and could someday develop into a potent corner outfielder. But he had no place in Toronto with Johnson and F-Cat here next year, and a Rios-Wells-Gross outfield all but assured by April 2005 onwards. Would he have had more value after 400 good at-bats next season? He might've, but he might also have had another uneven season -- his performance didn't exactly blow anyone's doors off during his Toronto stint -- and the Jays would've had to put up with 30 starts' worth of Mark Hendrickson while they were watching for a Kielty resurgence. Bobby's primary value to the organization was that today, he could bring in an established lefthanded starter. The Jays essentially dealt a guy who would have been a part-time outfielder in 2004 for a guy who will start 30 games in 2004 and win 10-15 of them; that's a trade you make every time. At a certain point, you have to make deals that are based more on necessity than on talent or potential. The Jays didn't need Kielty next year -- but they sure needed Lilly. That, more than anything else, is I think why Oakland also gets another player.

We'll wait and see who the PTBNL is -- but just the fact that he could become cash indicates to me that we're not talking about anyone terribly special. I very much doubt it's Brandon League -- Beane probably has as little interest in gambling on high school pitchers as JP does. And these guys have no interest in ripping the other off.

In terms of money, $2.5M is a reasonable assumption for Lilly's arbitration-based salary, though he hasn't been all that exciting the last three years. But even if that's the amount, that's still manageable; bringing in a John Thomson would have cost you around the same or slightly less, and I think Lilly is a better investment. There's still money available; put differently, Lilly and Hentgen together will both cost almost $1.5M less than what Shannon Stewart made last year.

Everyone seems to be focusing on the fact that Toronto doesn't yet have a #2 guy to back up Doc, and I agree that the rotation is shaky without that kind of secondary anchor. Neither Lilly nor Hentgen are close to #2 status. But I think we should safely assume that that #2 guy is coming: the money is there to be spent on one, and it seems pretty clear that this is a priority for the Jays. I still think it'll take until well into December before that gets settled away, though. But in the interim, I'll take Ted Lilly and Pat Hentgen in the #s 2 and 3 slots over Cory Lidle and Tanyon Sturtze, last year's Opening Day solutions. This is a better starting staff already: adding an Escobar or similar pitcher and it's suddenly legitimate.

Final side note: Josh Phelps just got his 500 ABs guaranteed.

this deal (lilly - kielty) is a great deal for toronto if only b/c they need a lefty starter in the worst way -- not saying he's a front end of the rotation guy, but he will help this team ... too many good-to-great OF prospects in the jays org. not to pull the trigger on this one ...

I am assuming we are definatly going to offer Escobar arb.

Are we now in a situation where we cannot sign another 'high price' pitcher (ie. the #2 we'd like), as if Escobar accepts arb we will be over budget ?

My understand would now be that we will have to wait to see if Esc accepts arb before we make another move. Else we could be, like Atlanta last season, forced into trading someone we dont want to so we can clear budget.

The Jays will not resign Escobar. Billy and J.P. have clearly been talking about this deal for as long as us BB readers, and my guess is that J.P. finally pulled the trigger because he sensed Escobar would never sign for the amount J.P. was proposing.

With Lilly, that's money they should now devote to improving the bullpen (which doesn't necessarily mean blowing it all on a "closer"--I have enough faith in Lopez should the Jays get another couple of good arms to help get that far on non-Halladay starts).

Escobar will be offered arbitration. In the unlikely event he accepts it and comes back next year, there's your #2 starter, for something in the $5M+ range.

Yah, but Ted Lilly is a pretty damned good pitcher.

No, he isn't. Today, he's above average at best. In terms of performance, his 2003 was very similar to Pat Hentgen's according to a number of measures. To get a pitcher of that caliber for free (Pat) is easier to swallow than getting a pitcher of that caliber for a cost (Ted).

But I fully admit that Ted still could become a good pitcher and factors like youth and length of contract mean that some sort of compensation, in terms of players given up, is an acceptable price to pay for Lilly. I believe that Bobby Kielty will be a pretty good hitter as well though, and that's why I'm not as sold as others.

Is this a horrible trade? No way. JP is trading a strength to fill in a weakness, as others have said. It's not my favorite but it's fine.

You do have to hand to JP. He isn't shy about making deals, and this one does make sense. (Of course, if he had accepted Gagne instead of Prokopec for Izturis a couple of years ago, he would be an absolute superstar GM, but hindsight is 20-20...)

Exactly Jordan, Ricciardi has already stated that he's offering Escobar arbitration, so when he doesn't sign, Toronto get's the picks, of this there is no doubt.

Kielty's a sabermetric favorite, even though many of us are tempered by the results, minus all the hype. But my golly, I love Reed Johnson as the eventual fourth OF guy, but he's no building block, and I for one hope he's no starter for 140+ games.

Of course, if he had accepted Gagne instead of Prokopec for Izturis a couple of years ago, he would be an absolute superstar GM, but hindsight is 20-20

Salamander, I'm all but convinced that this is an urban myth. The Jays tried to acquire Gagne on more than one occasion, including under Gord Ash, but the Dodgers just weren't letting him go. I don't think there's any truth at all to the rumour that the Jays had the choice between Prokopec and Gagne; I think Prokopec was the only one on the table. And at the time, it was indeed a fair deal; injuries can't be predicted. Or put differently: had Prokopec been healthy and Izturis torn an ACL, Dan Evans would still be trying to live down that trade.

I love Reed Johnson as the eventual fourth OF guy, but he's no building block, and I for one hope he's no starter for 140+ games.

I expect the Jays will be in the market for a fourth outfielder later this winter. Neither F-Cat nor Sparky are 150-game players, and I don't think Gabe Gross would be well served by a bench role (and the Jays need a righty outfielder anyway -- Werth's a possibility if he's still around).

http://economics.about.com
No, he isn't. Today, he's above average at best.

I think that's being really generous.

Here's the facts:

He's 22-24 in his career with a 4.68ERA. Over the last four years he's 22-23 and all four years his teams made the playoffs! The two teams he played for in that time (Yankees and Oakland) play in stadiums which are generally pretty kind to left-handed pitchers.

Lilly has the potential to be quite good, and showed it for a period late last year, so it's not a bad trade. But he's no better than a #4 on a good team right now.

Cheers,

Mike

The trade took two years to complete, involved 8 teams, but once Oakland chooses their player to be named later, it will finally be over.

Doesn't Minnesota also have to choose their PTBNL?

I figure they'll give Werth the righty part of a platoon role with Cat. It's make or break time for him. I don't know if another OF is necessary with Werth, Cat, Wells and Reed Johnson around. Maybe they'll throw Howie Clark out there in a pinch. But I figure they'll stick with the status quo until mid season where one of Gross or Rios will get the callup.

As for the trade itself, I'm all for it. I was never that big on Kielty after he arrived in Toronto. He seemed lost batting left-handed. He might break out, but chances are he won't. The Jays' need for ML quality pitching was far greater than another OF. He would have been redundant on this team by next year anyway. And to think half a season of Stewart plus two lesser prospects for 3 years of Lilly. Well done, JP!

Jordan, thanks for the urban myth clarification. You may well be right--although the rumour that Gagne was available was noted well before he took off as a closer, which would seem to lend it some more plausibility.

This isn't a dig at any Bauxites, but if we all think back a while, wasn't I the toast of TO trade-ville not so long ago? That's alright. If you read my quotes over at ESPN, you'd almost think I was traded straight from Minnesota to Oakland.

"I feel like this is my opportunity," Kielty said from his offseason home in Canyon Lake, Calif. "I didn't feel like I had a really huge opportunity with the Twins. This offseason, I've felt motivated that this is my chance to have an everyday job."

Bobby, I think we were all thrilled that the Jays got someone so promising in exchange for half a year of Shannon Stewart. But you didn't do too much after your arrival to sustain the optimism -- though that catch in Fenway was something special -- and the window of opportunity on this team can close pretty fast, especially when there's a GM out there who likes you even more than JP did.

One more thing Bobby. Just before Stewart was traded, there were numerous Stewart-for-Lilly rumours floating around, though some of us couldn't see Oakland taking on the extra salary.

It turns out the Stewart-for-Lilly thing happened after all, just on a slightly delayed basis.

Good luck as the A's new leadoff hitter. Your OBP skills will serve you well.

I suppose it doesn't hurt to have a decent lefty to face the Yanks 4-5 times a year.

Gee, any guesses as to how Mr. Griffin will view the latest Oakland-Toronto deal?

I don't think Lilly's second half was a fluke. He dropped his curveball(?) from his arsenal which was ineffective/tipped(?), and was effective from then on. It seems akin to (but not exactly equal to) Loiaza developing a cutter -- some adjustment that sets aside past performance. Suffice to say, I love the hell out of this trade.

Kielty again, has always had a lot of good OBP press but he doesn't seem to fulfill it with the best results. A repeated observation I had during his Kielty's Jays stint was that he hit a lot of 280 foot fly balls, and not hit terribly hard at that. I wasn't 'seeing' a whole lot of power there.

Gitz, will re-affirm this if it's accurate, but Lilly throws a lot of pitches. His pitch count gets high pretty quick, resulting in more often than not, short outings. A lot of his other 'flaws' are afore mentioned by others.

Stewart was a chit. Kielty was chip. And now he's turned himself into a cost effective-young-lefthanded-pitcher of promise, whatever that means.

John-Ford, Alfredo, or Richard?

I think you've got to like the deal. Kielty is a good fourth OF, but I don't think he'll blossom into a superstar in Oakland. Even if Lilly is an absolute bust, the Jays won't have lost too much (unless of course the dreaded PTBNL comes back to haunt).

I read somewhere that last season Lilly had his delivery altered at least slightly to prevent the arm injuries that kept re-occuring. Is this the nagging injury still a problem for him?

Peterson helped rebuild Lilly's mechanics, yes. The theory wasn't that he was inherently horribly injury prone but that he just had a stupendously bad delivery.

If the Jays are vigilant, he should be fine.

And to anyone who thinks Escobar is anything more than a #2 starter in name only should decamp immediately to Colorado.

In the relievers section of the article Jurgen links to they mention Doug Creek as an option, AHAHAHA

With Lilly and Hentgen to replace Escobar and Lidle, I feel that the Jays are treading water performance wise (albeit saving a few bucks).

Now, should they spend those extra savings on a legitamite #2 starter (Millwood?) and/or some substantial upgrades in the bullpen (Hawkins? Leskanic? Rhodes?), I think the club jumps from an 88 game winner to a real Wild Card contender.

Mike,

First, what makes you think Rusch wants to sign with Toronto? Second, how does acquiring Lilly preclude the potential acquisition of Rusch?

Ted Lilly strikeout rates (K per BF):

(2001 AL) .209, (2002 AL) .186, (2003 AL) .190.

Note that AL starters' strikeout rates are lower than NL starters' because of the DH.

Glendon Rusch strikeout rates:

(2000 NL) .196, (2001 NL) .199, (2002 NL) .153, (2003 NL) .162

That's not a great trend.

Darren Oliver:

(2000 AL) .098, (2001 AL) .149, (2002 AL) .124, (2003 NL) .112

As a not so hidden A's fan here let me say that this is a great deal for both sides. The A's get a bat which they sorely need and the Jays get a hopefully cheap pitcher who can go 200 innings. That being said as an A's fan I would have traded Lilly for a bucket of spit (or maybe Ken Huckaby ~.^). He was awful for most of the year, totally inconsistent and a big baby. His turn around so to speak was because he was forbidden to shake off Hernandez anymore. Kielty is good not just cuz he's a living body who produces more than any stiff that was out there last year but because he's still 0-3. The only change I would have made to this deal was to try and give the Jays Long instead of getting a PTBNL :) I have no idea what they would have done with him though, maybe put him on a new team with Huckaby and send them to sabatoge other teams

No clue on the whole Italics thing, so here's a quote from Geoff on the amount we are estimated to be spending next year thus far, including arbitration cases (but not escobar),

"Full Total 42 million

Needs (In order): Closer, SS Help (replace Howie Clark), Starter (Replace Hendrickson or Towers), 4th Outfielder (replace Tom Wilson)"

So if the payroll is about 50 million, then there is 8 million to throw around. If we are lucky and can sign a Latroy Hawkins type player, thats a good fill-in (IMO) for a closer for around 4 mil per.

I really have no clue about the SS help, but I'm sure there is a veteran utility infielder willing to go for a mil ala Mike Bordick of last year.

The 4th outfielder is probably just Werth, as noted above in the thread. I guess he's making the minimum.

So that leaves between 2 and 3 million to spend on the last starter. Unless we can throw out 10 mil or something in that ballpark, we can give up on the whole established #2 starter thing, because there is no way a Millwood would come for a discount for the Jays.

I agree with the above postings, the Jays will most likely wait to see which of the arb eligible free agents get non-tendered before they (we?) make a move on a starter.

I was up at 3:30 Monday morning when I seen the Hentgen signing. Worked all day and came home to Lilly tonite. Wow! Excellent and balanced discussion on the thread guys.

My two cents worth? Put me in the camp of a very good deal for both teams and thats a credit to a real working all-be-it rival ralationship.

Its hard to be really excited about Lilly on the basis of his career stats but in stops in both NY and Oakland this is a pitcher who has shown extended flashes of brillance in virtually every season. When the Yankee's traded him I was scratching my head thinking they were taking a big risk, but hey its NY right.

I think this is a guy who has been just a step away for the past three seasons one of which was interupted by injury.

It is realistic to expect a sub 4.25 era and 12-16 wins with a chance of a splendid sub 4.00 era.

I'm starting to be pretty impressed by this yrs. roster management. Last off season I was freaking out with all the crap pitching aqquisitions, the results of which were predictable. JP might even be able to convince me yet that he does have a head for pitching instead of dreaming in technocolor.

Finally, I said in the Hentgen thread or was it the Highjack thread that I thought the signing of Hentgen was sign that Kelvim was a goner. I'll stand by that guess. My thought on it was that no matter how hard JP trys to portray the image of a cold just by the numbers guy their is still public politics and optics that need to be considered. Heck even a cable company knows that. By bring ole Patty home the team is able to deflect the lose of Escobar. It gives them something warm, comfortable and capable to point too. With the signing of Lilly and whatever else may be in store with 8-12 million or whatever left we might not even remember old whats his name is gone. The only way he comes back is if he puts on the "I just want to be part of something special" act. Probably not Kelvims style though.

I like the deal. We have a lot of good young OF talent that eventually need a place to play (Rios, Gross, perhaps JFG), and we have guys that can keep their spots warm for them (Reed, Cat, Werth). While we have some great young SP talent (Arnold, McGowan, Bush), we don't really have any starters to bridge the gap. Towers did well enough to earn another look, but Thurman didn't impress me, and I don't see much at AAA I like. The ETA on our young SP is late 2004 at the earliest, and even if one or two arrive, we still need other arms. Also, being realistic, we can't count on all our young SP panning out. So, we deal from our excess to get need. I like it (pending the identity of the PTBNL).

One other comment... Whenever I see people estimating what Halladay will earn next year, whether on this board or in the papers, I see people throwing out numbers in the 7-8 million range. I may be off base, but I could definately see a 4-year 44 million dollar deal getting done (and that might be optimistic). Even if they back end the deal a bit I think we can expect halladay to earn 9-10 million next year. If he ends up in arbitration, the number might be even worse. You know that the Hendricks brothers will trot out Millwood's 10 million award from last year, and given that Halladay was better than Millwood in both 2002 and 2003, I don't like our chances.

I have to agree with the 44 mil projection too. But just maybe it gets back loaded enough cover Dalgado's bloated other era contract. At the end of the day if it take 44 million for four yrs. then Doc gets 44. I don't think it matter much if he only takes 6 this yr. 8 in yr two and 15 in each of the 3rd and 4th yrs. He can take a mortgage on a nice pad in the Tampa Bay area to raise his family, it doesn't cost to much to go fishing in Colorado and he can't buy his plane till he retires. Yup I think he'll be ok

What do you guys think about speculation that the PTBNL will be JFG doing an about-face back to Oakland? Don't have his minor league numbers from this year at hand, but Kielty and JFG seems like a pretty steep price to pay for a pitcher carrying around Lilly's question marks.

With Long (presumably) and Lilly out of the mix, I suddenly have a lot less content to work with next year.

Why are all these people so relatively high on Kielty? Remember the last saber-freak Beane acquired? He was a disapointment, despite walking a lot, and Kielty will be the exact same thing, maybe even a little worse. Listen, if you're not going to hit for a high average -- one component of OBP, by the way -- playing in Minnesota and Toronto, two somewhat favorable hitting partks, what makes anyone think Kielty is somehow going to bust out in Oaktown? Kielty is what he is: a guy who will get on base around 35 percent of the time, hit between 15-20 homers, maybe slug .450, and play a passable corner OF position. Is an .800 OPS, if he gets it, such a great thing from a corner OF spot? It's funny, but Kielty is very much like Kotsay: a valuable complementary player on a team with a real offense. Hence, he's out of place in Oakland. Say what you want about Miguel Tejada swinging at 0-2 pitches in the dirt, but he's going to be missed. Until the A's address their true problems -- getting REAL power out of the 1B/DH/RF/LF spots in their lineup -- their 2004 team will closely resemble their 2003 team, if not be a little worse for the wear (though getting rid of Long is addition by subtraction).

As for Lilly ... the Jays can have him. He will not be missed in Oakland, certainly not by this hack analyst. Mike Moffatt has provided Lilly's career numbers somewhere on this page, but I will not even present that as evidence. In fact, I present zero evidence, though I could dig up some numbers if I wanted. My dislike/distrust of Lilly is based quite a bit on non-measurable assertions, which I repeated so many times in my column that I won't repeat them here. If you're really interested, hit me with an e-mail.

Mark my words, kids. Come June, you are going to rue the day the Jays acquired Lilly. I'll say no more about this, so scorch me to vapors, kids.

So I lied. I should add that I very much want Lilly to succeed.

It's a PTBNL or $100,000, ESPN said so. I think I'd eat $100,000 in a second rather than giving away JFG - Even if we don't need him, if he has a decent year at AAA his trade value should net them much more than that.

David Cameron thinks J.P. made off like a thief.

Cameron, who likes Lilly's raw stuff and doesn't share Gleeman's enthusiasm for Kielty, also has these brilliant lines:

Toronto, on the other hand, traded an outfielder they did not need for a pitcher who could win 20 games next year. Now, as Esteban Loaiza shows us, every pitcher could win 20 games next year, and the odds of Ted Lilly doing it aren't very high.

And let's not forget where Esteban learned that 20 game winning sinker.

My dislike/distrust of Lilly is based quite a bit on non-measurable assertions

Gitz, do you recall Lilly not busting over to cover first?

http://economics.about.com
Doesn't Minnesota also have to choose their PTBNL?

Yep. Missed that one.

Here's a more complete view of the trade. I've ranked the teams from their outcome in the trade: best to worst. Not quite sure where to put Texas, tho:

DETROIT
ADD Pena
ADD German
ADD Bonderman
DEL Weaver

TEXAS
ADD Hart
ADD Ludwick
ADD Laird
ADD Ramos
DEL Pena
DEL Venafro

TORONTO
ADD Arnold
ADD Griffin
ADD Lilly
DEL Lopez
DEL Stewart
DEL Perry
DEL PTBNL x 2

OAKLAND
ADD Durazo
ADD Kielty
ADD Venafro
ADD Perry
ADD PTBNL
DEL Hart
DEL Ludwick
DEL Laird
DEL Ramos
DEL Bonderman
DEL German

MINNESOTA
ADD Stewart
ADD PTBNL
DEL Kielty

CINCINATTI
ADD Lopez
DEL Dessens

ARIZONA
ADD Dessens
DEL Durazo

YANKEES
ADD Weaver
DEL Lilly
DEL Arnold
DEL Griffin

I think I've got it right now. What a trade!

Mike

From the Star:

The Jays will also send a low-level minor leaguer or $10,000 to the A's.

That has to be a typo. 10 G's? Methinks it's probably 100 grand.

If I had to pick one "winner" in that mess of an extended trade, I admit I'd have to take Detroit. A starting 1B, SP and potential closer for Weaver?

I still think Weaver will be OK eventually, but that's a pretty good haul for what was really their one bargaining chip.

One semi-important consideration that had some impact on Kielty being traded: Jayson Werth is out of options. (Thanks to Jeff Blair for pointing that out.)

So, if I consider the trade to be Kielty and PTBNL for Lilly and Werth, it sounds a whole lot better to me.

I don't think $10,000 would be that unusual.

I have made a revised budget estimate, taking a pessimistic view of the potential arbitration awards to Lilly and Woodward. By my estimates, the Jays now have $7.2 million left to spend on free agents.

I'm pleased about the deal. Lilly is a gamble, for reasons Gitz has outlined and more...

1) His metamorphosis from strikeout king to control pitcher is not convincing yet, in my book. He still loves his stuff, and sometimes falls back into predictable patterns, something the A's apparently soured on.

2) He still has iffy mechanics, still gets sore easily because he throws across his body and strains his back.

3) When he does get hurt, he seems to have trouble adjusting when he comes back.

4) Even when he's healthy, you need a long bridge from the pen, because he's a six-inning guy. That means Tosca will be engaging a parade of relief men.

5) Gitz thinks he needs a fourth pitch. Well... OK. Most pitchers needs a fourth pitch like I need a fifth leg, but Gitz knows his stuff.

In the end, Ted Lilly is an average starter. The Jays need average starters desperately. It was a good deal, a very good deal... filling a hole without creating another hole. Werth and Johnson will share outfield time, Catalanotto will go back to hitting .320, and everyone will wait for Gabe Gross to arrive in June and start a ten-year career.

With Halladay heading the rotation, Lilly at 3, Hentgen at 4, and Towers or Hendrickson or somebody at 5, all that is missing is the #2 starter. With $7 million left to spend, an infielder to sign and a bullpen to stock, that #2 guy may not be a top-of-the-line pitcher, but if you can't sign somebody decent for $4-5 million in the market of massive non-tenders you're doing something wrong.

Re my budget analysis...

Any of these salary projections look that unusual to people?

Player      2003 sal   2004 sal - projected

Walker      $425,000   $425,000
Miller      $325,000   $375,000
Phelps      $320,000   $350,000
Wilson      $316,000   $340,000
Hudson      $303,000   $320,000
Lopez       $300,000   $315,000
Hendrickson $302,000   $310,000
Werth       $300,000   $303,000
Kershner    $300,000   $305,000
Towers      $300,000   $305,000
Cash        $300,000   $300,000
Johnson     $300,000   $308,000
Clark       $300,000   $300,000

I might be missing something crucial, if I am let me know.

Craig, what do you have Halladay slotted in at for 2004?

Jayson Werth is out of options

Another great benefit to drafting high school players. Not only do you get to add them to the 40-man before they are out of A-ball, you have the terrific opporunity of losing them on waivers before their 25th birthday.

Jordan, I have Halladay at $8 million. I think that's a reasonable amount for the first year of a long-term deal, I think it's also not too far below what he might earn in arbitration.

Craig I think your numbers are bang on. I could see J.P. asking RH to take only 6 million in the first year of a long term deal, making up the missing 2-2.5 million later on in the deal, thus making the available money closer to 9 million.With Delgado coming off the books next year I think there's all sorts of ways to be creative.

I have Halladay at $8 million.

Sounds right. I imagine the deal will be slightly backloaded to take advantage of the extra payroll available in 2005.

Well, I have already stated that I think projecting Halladay at around 7-8 million is wishful thinking. No need to go over that again. I want to point this out: why should the jays back end the deal? The only reason why I would consider it is so that we can actually afford him (i.e. if our budget for next year is strict and there is no other way to get him signed long term). But we have to remember that the years we hope to compete in are 2-3 years down the road. I don't want Halladay's salary to balloon in those years, since it would be harder to put together a full roster that would actually compete. I'd rather bite the bullet now, face the fact that we have to surround Roy with crap for a year or so, and then reap the benefits later. Maybe we use this year to develop another key player or two.

What I hope for is that we get Roy signed for 11 million for each year. Then, I hope Delgado's asking price falls into the Thome range, or maybe even a bit below, and we can sign him for a few years on an extension. Then, if you follow my dream world, one or 2 young pitchers come up and are good (perhaps one being very good). since they are cheap, and since Wells is signed long-term at reasonable dollars (the other big key player for us), then we should have a bit of money to spend on complimentary players to fill out the team. But I don't see what use it is to save money now on Halladay since we won't realistically be competing now anyways. Let's save that dollar until we're in a position to actually use it and use it well.

Craig, I'd say your projections look reasonable. You're not missing anybody that I can think of (unless Chulk counts), but I'm not convinced there's room for all of those guys on the 25-man. In my books Hendrickson, Walker, Wilson, and Clark are all on the bubble... keeping those four (and assuming Politte and Werth are on the team) would leave just 1 roster spot available.

Here's my roster / salary projection as of this morning:

Rotation		
SP1	Doc	6.000
SP2	FA	5.000
SP3	Hentgen	2.200
SP4	Lilly	2.500
SP5	Towers	.325
Bullpen		
Closer	FA	2.500
SetupR	Lopez	.315
SetupL	Kersh.	.310
Short	Politte	.900
Loogy	Miller	.375
RP	FA	1.000
Lineup		
C	Cash	.300
1B	Delgado	18.500
2B	O-Dog	.350
SS	Woody	1.000
3B	Hinske	.800
LF	Cat	2.300
CF	Wells	.700
RF	Sparky	.310
DH	Phelps	.350
Bench		
OF	Werth	.305
Utility	Berg	.700
C	Crash	.900
Glove	FA	1.000
RP/UT	Rule V	.300
-------	-------	-------
Total	Payroll	48.940

Of my total, $26.100M is committed (7 players), $13.340M is projected (13 players), and $9.500 is for free agents / Rule V guy (5 players).

Key question: When they talk about a $50M payroll, is that $50M on opening day, or is it more like $48M so that they can account for various minor-league callups? Or do minor league call-ups just make a pro-rated share of the minimum salary, therefore this is not an issue?