there will probably be a hundred or more non-tendered players

Really? Over 3 a team seems high to me.

The Expos' situation is a sad one, but Minaya has proven to be excellent in these backs-to-the-wall situations. I look for him to come out of this offseason with a competitive Spos team for 2004. It is quite a conundrum for the Spos. Trading Vidro and Vazquez could help them reverse the effect of having given up those great prospects (Phillip's struggles notwithstanding) for Bartolo Colon. On the other hand, they could be competitive now. It's a toughie, but something tells me that Minaya will come through.

Really? Over 3 a team seems high to me.

There were around 50 non-tenders last year and it seems to be even more en vogue this time around for clubs wanting more financial flexibility. I think Coach's number is on the high side but not unrealistic at all.

Time is running out for the Expos. Whoever buys the team will find an utterly depleted farm system and a major league club that will struggle to avoid 100 wins by 2005.

Since MLB revenues as a whole seem to be stagnant, the Montreal franchise is actually losing value at this time because of the dwindling player assets. And yet, Bud is angling for stadium subsidies when he should be concentrating on finding any reliable owner who will take the team.

Maybe Selig is aiming to contract the team when the agreement with the players not to do so runs out, at which time he'll award an expansion franchise to Washington or Portland and collect a fat expansion fee. The number of teams would remain at 30.

I don't expect much free agent signing before December 20th, the deadline date when teams have to decide whether or not to offer arbitration. Only the big names will receive offers before then.

I do think there will be several trades made before then, I'm hoping the Jays can either land Ted Lilly or Byung-Hyun Kim. Oakland will have to shed some payroll so I think Lilly is the odd man out and Kim has worn out his welcome in Boston

Really? Over 3 a team seems high to me.

Not my guess, Pistol, and I was surprised too. It came from a reliable source:

"I think there will be a lot of non-tenders," Ricciardi said. "There are 210 free agents right now and I think there will be another 100 non-tenders."

That's from Mike Rutsey's article in the Toronto Sun this morning, where J.P., who said there are about 30 guys the Jays like in their price range, didn't sound too optimistic about making deals.

"Our best bet (to improve the team) may be the free agent route as opposed to the trade route because trades are getting harder and harder to make," Ricciardi said yesterday. "I know we're willing to make trades but you need someone else to do it with."

I'd be wary of acquiring Kim right now. He seems to have lost about 3-4 MPH on his fastball compared to 2001 (when he was the hardest throwing side arm/underhand pitcher I had ever seen).

I am a bit concerned with Kim's drop in K/inning ratio, however he did hold opponents to a .224 average in 2003 with and impressive WHIP of 1.12 (which is slightly better that his career average of 1.16). I don't think he would cost much and is worth the risk in my opinion.

I would use him as a starter if he was aquired.

Question: if a team signs a free agent before December 20, does that team automatically have to provide draft-pick compensation to the player's original team?

Also, how does the free-agent compensation scheme work? Are players classified as type-A/B/C, or tier 1/2/3, etc, with different levels of compensation mandated? (If so, what determines how players are classified?)

If a player signs before December 20th, only a team run by fools would not offer that player arbitration. Since you can still offer a player arbitration after he has already signed with someone else, there is no risk to that team and they will be guarenteed to receive compensation.

As for what the compensation is, people at Elias Sports rank all baseball players and I believe there ratings are based over the past two years. Roy Halladay has the #1 rating in baseball, these ratings decide what compensation a team has to give up for signing a player. Someone here may have a link to these rankings, I know it is out there somewhere.

Greenfrog - here's my understanding

Teams have to offer free agents arbitration before December 7th...if they don't offer arbitration they don't get compensation...however, free agents can sign with new teams before December 7th - and if they do, then teams can offer arbitration knowing the player won't accept it (since he already has a new team) so it basically amounts to free compensation

Players are classified as type A (signing team loses pick (1st rnd if you pick 15-30, 2nd round if you pick 1-15) and team losing player also gets a sandwich pick between the first and second round), type B (just the pick from the other team) and type C (just the sandwich pick)

They are classified based on their performance in I believe the last two years, could be three, definitely not one - type A is top 30%, type B is top 50% and type C is top 60% (maybe not 60, but defnitely not all remaining)

Hope that helps

Does anybody know of a list of all arbitration-eligible players?

To the best of my knowledge, the Blue Jays who are eligible are:

Roy Halladay - Will definitely by offered arb, hopefully signs multiyear extension
Cliff Politte - Made $845K last year, likely non-tendered
Chris Woodward - Not a slam-dunk, but I expect him to be offered arb.

I don't know about Trever Miller, but having made $325K last year while doing a reasonable job, I expect him to be back. Pete Walker is another question mark as far as eligibility, I don't see him being offered more than last year's $425K.

There were around 50 non-tenders last year and it seems to be even more en vogue this time around for clubs wanting more financial flexibility. I think Coach's number is on the high side but not unrealistic at all.

I would think most of the bad contracts that faced arbitration were non-tendered last year, and/or players that would be non-tendered are UFAs now.

So while I think more teams will consider it this year, I don't think there are as many non-tendering candidates.

I don't expect much free agent signing before December 20th, the deadline date when teams have to decide whether or not to offer arbitration.

The 19th is when players have until to accept arbitration. Teams have to offer arbitration by the 7th.

I have found this in an article in the Toronto Star:

while the best player in all of baseball, according to the annual statistical rankings released by the Elias Sports Bureau, was none other than Toronto right-hander Roy Halladay.

The Elias rankings, based on statistical analysis of the past two seasons, are used to determine whether players are Type A, B or C free agents and what draft picks their former teams receive in compensation should these players sign elsewhere.

Someone want to tell me how to highlight a word so that it takes you to the link rather than posting the link itself?

Hey Jays1Fan1,

Have you figured out why we can't post on ESPN anymore?

Jays1fan1, I edited your comment (#14) because that very long URL was messing up the page width. To create a link, use "angle" brackets <> instead of the square ones in the following example:

[A HREF="http://www.battersbox.ca"]Batter's Box[/A]

You can copy and paste an URL but it must be between quote marks, and don't forget to close the tag after the text you want highlighted as the link.

Bold is [B]text[/B] and italics is [I]text[/I] -- again, substitute < and > for the square brackets.

By the way, I linked to the article about Doc topping the Elias rankings back on October 30, and included links to the entire lists of AL and NL players in a comment on that thread.

Test:

I can now post on ESPN and think I may drop the Jays1fan1 handle despite having over 7000 posts under that name here is my new name.

I think they were just having problems on the site that morning. I'm not sure they have resolved all there problems yet.

Here's an interesting article, ESPN predicts where the top 50 free agents will end up.

Gotta love Elias. Arrogant boobs. Nothing has changed since the 80's when they were attempting to rip off Bill James, denying it all the while.

Their rankings are pure silliness... and to 3 decimal places no less!

Hijack- Berroa and Willis won the RoY awards according to espn.com. Berroa won narrowly over Matsui. Webb came 3rd behind Podsednik in the NL race.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1658488
Hijack: Royals shortstop Angel Berroa and Marlins Pitcher Dontrelle Willis win the Rookie of the year awards for the Al & NL respectly.

Click on my name for ESPN story link.

Hey Mike ,

Sorry I did not see your post. I took to long posting. :-)

Jeff

Berroa! Good job, writers.

Webb was robbed. Bad job, writers.

Webb was robbed. Bad job, writers.

It's interesting. By Win Shares, Podsednik lapped the field with 22, to 17 by Webb and 14 to Willis. I'm not sure I agree with that; I think it was much closer, but still close.

Willis isn't a terrible choice, by Rookie of the Year standards, and Webb did go just 10-9 - a pretty tough row to hoe for a major award. I don't like judging guys by W-L records either... but is sure will help a certain Batter's Box deity in the AL Cy Young voting.

Craig,

In my view, Brandon Webb clearly was the best rookie pitcher of the year. He pitched more innings and substantially more effectively (taking into account the park) than Willis.

Comparing Webb to Podsednik is harder. Podsednik had 600 PAs, and was a very effective top of the order hitter (.379 OBP)in an unfriendly park with some pop and some speed, and played well in centerfield. Webb pitched 180 innings very effectively in a really tough environment.

For myself, I would have chosen Webb. I suspect that the fact that Podsednik is 26, and this season is out of context with his minor league career, has some influence on my thinking. I will admit that it is closer than I thought.

I suspect that the fact that Podsednik is 26, and this season is out of context with his minor league career, has some influence on my thinking

Is there reason to believe that Podsednik is or isn't a fluke? I'm not sure what to make of his future (and as a potential keeper I need to figure that out!).

I thought Milwuakee was a hitter friendly park?

Depending on who else I had, I probably wouldn't keep Podesnick in a keepers league. I think he will have a sophomore slump.

Actually, you're right. Miller Park was a mild hitter's park this year, but on average over the last 4 years, it has been a mild pitcher's park.

Podsednik's season brought me back to Pat Listach, whose career was ended very early due to injury. While this probably won't happen to Podsednik as a centerfielder, I am highly skeptical that he can maintain the pace of his rookie season. Could he consistently go .270/.350/.400 with 30 steals for 3 or 4 years? Sure, although he's perfectly capable of regressing to the major league equivalency of his minor league performance, say .250/.320/.380.

Whether .270/.350/.400 would make him a keeper in your league, I don't know.

Something like 234 players were eligible for free agency (about 220 have filed). There are also 50 or so six-year minor league free agents, including Corey Thurman who is listed as a reliever.

As for there being 100 non-tenders, that seems optimistic, assuming we're talking about arbitration eligibles and not including free agents without compensation. There are 12 players with option years for 2004 (two or three have already been exercised) and 149 arbitration eligibles (some of whom have probably signed already).

So about two thirds of them would have to be non-tendered which seems doubtful. But it's probably a safe bet to say it will be more than last year's 50 and some of them will be players of consequence. I think JP just threw out a big number on the spot but maybe we'll all be surprised.

ESPN's Top 50 "predictions" page is pretty funny. Check it out if you haven't already. I wonder if the pressure to crank out content quickly is what makes these guys so sloppy sometimes. I mean, sure, it's going to pretty hard to peg 50 guys and where they're going and all that, but some of their predictions don't seem to be made with a lot of concern for context.

why don't the Jays go after Matsui? .917 OPS in Japan. 28 yrs old. I have heard he is good defensively. Probably worst case scenario is .800 OPS from SS which puts you in top 8 in majors at that position. Brings some people to the ballpark and gets the Jays on the radar screen (Sportscenterability). Sounds good to me at 6-7 million a year.

It may sound good but I think 6-7 million is a little much for an unproven player. You have no idea how he will turn out. Matsui was a 50 homer player in Japan and didnt come near that here. On the other hand Ichiro has been a pretty good player here. I also think the amount of people who will come just to see him wont be that many, more will come to see Wells and Delgado.

I disagree. Toronto has a pretty big Asian population, who might not be Blue Jays fans but may be Matsui fans. I don't think it would matter so much if he wasn't a huge star if he greatly improved the Jays relationship with the community.

http://economics.about.com
I don't really think a bunch of Koreans are going to care if the Jays have a Japanese player... and to my knowledge the Japanese population in Toronto isn't too big (though I may be wrong).

If they could get a Chinese player, that's a different story.

If they could get a Chinese player, that's a different story.
Case in point: Yao Ming's visits to the ACC vs. the Raptors.

"I don't really think a bunch of Koreans are going to care if the Jays have a Japanese player.."

The Jays would probably lose some Korean fans if a Japanese player were signed.

Is there reason to believe that Podsednik is or isn't a fluke? I'm not sure what to make of his future (and as a potential keeper I need to figure that out!).

Me, too. In the BBFL, no less. Posednik's an oddball. As a Ranger prospect, he hit a gigantic wall in AA, then performed respectably in AAA for other organizations, then performed fabulously in the Majors. Posednik has career lines of .217/.292/.292 in AA and .283/.339/.419 in AAA, then batted .314/.379/.443 for Milwaukee. What in the world is that?

Anyway, ESPN speculates that Kelvim Escobar will become a Ranger. Considering the money he's shooting for (as discussed on BattersBox), I doubt it. If Texas plans to hold to a $75 million budget, they have only about $17 million for free agents and all their unsigned players. Most of those unsigned players will be near the minimum, but even that adds up.

There are a couple of interesting articles in this morning"s press. JP told the Sun he is interested in both Hentgen and Quantrill and has talked to the latters agent. There is a good article at Bluejays.com about Adams. JP still sees him as a shortstop although Frank white prefers him at 2b. As well, I saw the Atlanta Braves released Stubby Clapp yesterday--it has been a busy 24hrs for him.

http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/TorontoSun/Sports/2003/11/11/253106.html
The Sun article is linked if you click on my name.

The Jays interest in Quantrill is interesting, or rather that they think he's someone they can sign is interesting considering that Quantrill turned down a $3 million option with LA.

The Quantrill issue is interesting. He declined his $3 mil option with LA. Why would he do that when it appears as though the market is softer than that? I see two possibilities. He will either return to Philly for a chance at post season and probably get close to the $3 mil, or he will move back home, take a hometown discount, and sign with the Jays for between $1 and $2 mil.

I vote for option #2

As we wait for confirmation of Roy's (lopsided, perhaps even unanimous) Cy Young victory, here are a few good articles about the Doctor, written both from Toronto and Denver perspectives:

Here's the Globe&Mail article, in which Gord Ash weighs in heavily (pun definitely intended)!

The Toronto Star column is beautiful, with a nice Rocket/Doc comparison.

Denver Post's Mike Klis writes about Doc's soon-to-be status as Colorado's first Cy Young winner and the Rocky Mountain News has an excellent piece as well.

There were way too may great quotes about Halladay to list here!

And then there's Mike Celizic's column, with a sub-headline: "Halladay should easily win award, but who cares?"

Nonetheless, we have three hours to go until the announcement...!

He will either return to Philly for a chance at post season and probably get close to the $3 mil, or he will move back home, take a hometown discount, and sign with the Jays for between $1 and $2 mil.

I vote for option #2


We can vote on this? Cool! I like option 2 as well.

Realistically, though I don't think anyone is taking a 67% cut in pay to live close to home.

And I don't see why the Jays wouldn't pay him in the neighborhood of $3 million if he'd be their best reliever and can pitch 80 innings.

I don't think Paul declined his option to take a pay cut. There will probably be at least one 3 year offer on the table for a guy with his track record and I doubt he'd take less than the $3 million he got.

The Jays might offer something like $6 million over two years and I think that's as low as Quantrill is going to consider. Of course the Yankees or Phillies could just step in and say $12 million over 3 years and that would be the end of that. Unless Paul is more motivated by the situation than by the money.

I think that's the only thing the Jays have in their favour. They have the big trio of stars in Halladay, Delgado, and Wells and a number of talented supporting cast like Catalanatto, Myers, and younger guys like Hinske, Phelps, Hudson, Kielty, Johnson, Cash, Woodward etc. And it's a club full of good personalities and one where a couple of key arms could make a huge difference.

You wouldn't be going to the Yankees or Phillies where you're a $4 million cog in a $100 plus million dollar machine. You have a chance to be a difference maker with the Jays. At least that's the appeal the Jays will need to sell. By the way, it's great that Halladay went to instructional league to talk to the young pitchers. I really hope he chooses to commit for the long term with the Jays.

I don't think the Jays will pay Quantrill $3 million for one season let alone $6 million for two. Ricciardi will offer him a contract at no more than $2 million a year hoping he will take a home town discount. If he wants more he is out of the Jays price range.

If the Jays could afford to spend $3 million on a reliever it would go to a closer, but I don't even think they can afford to do that.

I think you have to take Quantrill's ERA this past year with a grain of salt. Aside from it being in a small sample, he pitched in a very favorable environment for him, a great pitcher's park and a good defensive infield.

In Toronto, a reasonable projection for him is 80 IP and an ERA of 3-4. I have no idea what the market will be for pitchers of this quality. However, it seemed to me that there wasn't room for a $3 million middle reliever in the Blue Jay budget.

Well this year his ERA was just as low on the road, but definately the quality of the defenders has to be taken into account. LA plays the pitching/defence strategy to an almost ridiculous degree; Izturis at shortstop and Beltre and 3B being the huge difference between the Dodgers and the Jays.

I don't think it would necessarily be a big deal though. Halladay is an extreme groundballer and it doesn't hurt him much. Granted he strikes out more guys but the key as with Quantrill is he doesn't walk people and limits homeruns against to acceptable levels. I have no doubt that JP and Keith Law both understand fully the implications of environment and context on Quantrill's stats.

I think just as valuable to them as the raw ERA is the fact that Paul can work 80 games and throw 100 innings if you need him to. Being able to project a guy to do that is important. 90-100 innings of ERA between 3.00 and 4.00 would be worth a heck of a lot to an offensive team like the Jays. That's half of a high quality starter's innings. I think after two years of running into walls with low cost alternatives the Jays are ready for a known quantity whom they can be confident will stay healthy and effective through heavy use. They definately need a workhorse who will take the pressure off Miller, Lopez, and Politte to make so many appearances.

So is he worth $3 million? That depends on the budget. The Jays have a low budget but they have quite a bit of spendable cash to focus solely on the pitching staff. If I had $10 million to spend and the best reliever that would consider my team is Paul Quantrill at $3 million for two years, I'd take that risk. Granted I'd rather have Hawkins for $4 million but I'm sure the Yankees will offer him $5 million.

In Toronto, a reasonable projection for him is 80 IP and an ERA of 3-4. I have no idea what the market will be for pitchers of this quality. However, it seemed to me that there wasn't room for a $3 million middle reliever in the Blue Jay budget.

Nothing like playing it safe with the projection, huh? Over the last 3 years Quantrill has pitched 83, 76, and 77 innings and his road ERAs have been 1.38, 3.11, and 1.63. I'd expect his ERA to be under 3 as a Blue Jay.

My guess on budget room is as follows: $1M for a backup/platoon SS, $9M for 3 starters, $4M for 2 relievers. Not too difficult to see a $3M reliever fitting into that, but I've got my doubts that J.P. will choose to do so.

Here's Quantrill's career line: http://tsf.waymoresports.thestar.com/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?0919. You could infer that his improved hit and HR ratios in 2002-03 are related to his personal improvement or to the improved context. I think that it's almost exclusively the latter, but I suppose you could argue based on his limited road stats in 2002-03 that he did improve during that time.

Quantrill hasn't pitched 100 innings since 1997. He has significant platoon splits, and has faced left-handed hitters significantly less than right-handed ones over the last 3 years. I think Jim Tracy used Quantrill optimally, not letting him face several left-handed hitters in a row, and as a result pitching often but almost always for an inning or less.

One stat that is not reported, and would be very interesting in Quantrill's case, is double plays behind him. Paul Quantrill is exactly the kind of pitcher you'd want to come on with a right-handed hitter up, a runner on first and nobody on or one out. He doesn't walk many or give up many home runs, and he'll get the ground ball. The outcome in this kind of situation is very sensitive to the playing surface and the defence.

If the Jays could afford to spend $3 million on a reliever it would go to a closer, but I don't even think they can afford to do that.

Why is Quantrill being pigeon-holed as a middle reliever? Is there reason to believe Quantrill can't be as successful pitching in the 9th inning?

Quantrill's IP and ERA+ as a reliever:
2003 - 77/231
2002 - 77/140
2001 - 83/156
2000 - 84/110
1999 - 49/148
1998 - 80/180
1997 - 88/238

Quantrill's splits:

2003
R - .243/.267/.306
L - .198/.279/.260

2000-2002
R - .249/.276/.326
L - .271/.344/.391

Baseball prospectus has Quantrill ranked the 11 th best reliever in the game. Honestly , I think the guy has improved a great deal since his tenure in Toronto,and not all of it can be attributed to "better defence" or "optimal usage" link

He's a solid reliever who's signable in Toronto's context. I see minimal downside.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=1659287
HALLADAY WINS CY YOUNG AWARD ! YES !!!!!!!!!!

CLICK ON MY NAME FOR THE NEWS STORY.

The BP list is very interesting. Three of the top 11 relief pitchers last year were Dodgers: Gagne, Guillermo Mota and Quantrill. All had dramatic improvements upon arrival in LA, with Mota's and Quantrill's being quite singular.

I guess we'll find out how much was context and how much was personal improvement if Quantrill signs with another team.

He can pitch 100 innings if you need him to. Los Angeles never did need him too because they have a loaded pen and decent starting rotation. There's only so many innings to go around. And even the Jays had a better pen back then with Koch, Plesac, File, and others providing at least adequate relief as opposed to the series of rookies and scrap-heap signings the Jays have gone through since.

For the Jays of 2004, I could definately see a guy like Quantrill being used to the extent that he sees 80 games and 90+ innings. They only have one sure thing in the rotation and a Rule V draftee was one of their top three relievers. Maybe 100 innings is a stretch but when guys like Trevor Miller are getting about 80 appearances and Lopez is up there as well, I think Tosca would work a guy like Quantrill for all he's worth.

For reference, here are the NL Win-Shares: http://www.baseballgraphs.com/winshares/nlwinpos.html. I had no idea that Lo Duca and Cora were about as good defensively for their position as Izturis and Beltre. That was some infield defence they had.

I really hope Toronto signs both Hentgen and Quantrill. And Timlin while they're at it. I admit I really like these guys from their time in Toronto and perhaps that clouds my judgement, but I also think I have every reason to believe they'll pitch well next year.

Mike Rutsey of the Sun reports that J.P. talked with the agent for Flash Gordon yesterday. As much as I agree that Quantrill would look good back in a Toronto uniform, he's not the only guy who can fill the role, and Gordon, despite his injury history, had a great 2003. Curtis Leskanic is another possibility; the Jays will explore them all, looking for the best fit(s) in terms of talent and salary.

Rutsey also talked to Pat Hentgen's agent, who claims interest in his client from 13 teams, but had encouraging news for Toronto fans.

"We think Pat's best thing is to sign a one-year deal," [Bob] Lamonte said. "It doesn't benefit him (based on his recent stats) to go long term unless it's an absolutely ridiculous offer. He hasn't had a full year back (from surgery). With his arm the way it is right now we think he'd be a hotter commodity in the following year."

Hentgen was one of the first people to call Roy Halladay with congratulations yesterday. Lamonte expects him to make a decision in two weeks, if not sooner.

Also from the article Coach pointed to:

Brewers general manager Doug Melvin has been asked to cut the team's payroll to $30 million next season, which could wind up as the lowest in baseball.

If I'm a taxpayer in Milwaukee, I want my money back from the construction of Miller Park.

Here's a good site if you like a quick place for rumors;

http://www.prosportsdaily.com/mlb/mlbrumors.html

Apparently the Mets have inquired about Escobar (who would only give up their 2nd round pick since they are in the top 15).

Let the Rumour Mill Begin:

- Jays have talked to the agents of Quantrill, Hentgen and Tom Gordon (twice)
- Jays are also apparently interested in bringing back Chris Carpenter
- A poster on the ESPN boards reports the Jays may have already signed Hentgen and are waiting to announce it, they are also trying to make a deal for Ben Sheet and may take a chance on Tony Armas Jr. This is probably more fictional than factual however it is the rumour mill.

We think Pat's best thing is to sign a one-year deal," [Bob] Lamonte said

Isn't Lamonte also the agent for Chris Carpenter (and, IIRC, Dave Stieb), who stormed off in a huff with his client when JP refused to give Carpenter a guaranteed deal? If so, that could be a minor wrench in the effort to bring Hentgten back; then again, money heals nearly all wounds. I'd be surprised to see Carp back in the fold, myself.

I'm very encouraged by the reports about Tom Gordon. He was my early choice for a solid bullpen signing for Toronto. We'll see how that goes.

I expect the rumour mill is grinding up older grist at this point: the Jays had expressed interest in both Sheets and Armas in the past, so they seem like logical early rumour targets. Sheets in particular has the excellent BB/K rates Toronto likes, and Armas has a very live arm (or at least he did prior to his injury). I doubt there's much meat to these rumours yet. With the Brewers needing to cut salary, for example, low-cost stars like Sheets should be the last ones to go. I'll betcha that Alexis Rios (an Ash draftee) and a spare minor-league arm could nab Sheets and Luis Vizcaino, though.

With the Brewers needing to cut salary, for example, low-cost stars like Sheets should be the last ones to go

Sheets is first year arbitration eligible and so due for a nice raise. Even considering the $, he'd be an excellent pickup.

Vizcaino is arb-eligible as well. So, considering that he contracted Politte's disease and started giving up HR every 4 innings, he's a likely candidate for non-tendering.

Ben Sheets was pulled from his August 19 start after one inning with right rotator cuff inflammation. He did not miss a start, but was less effective from August 24 until the end of the season than he had been earlier. He last pitched on September 23. I'd doubly want to make sure that he's healthy before looking to acquire him.

Sheets is first year arbitration eligible and so due for a nice raise.

Spicol, that's true, but the arbitration amount shouldn't be more than a couple of million, which Milwaukee should be able to absorb for its ace; that would be excellent value for what he ought to produce in 2004. As Mike says, you'd need to confirm his health, but otherwise there aren't many arms this attractive. I think the Brewers would be mad to let him go, but I'm always happy to take advantage of anything Breweresque.

As for Vizcaino, I think he'd be a solid pickup; if he's a non-tendered FA so that he doesn't cost a draft pick, all the better. He pitched much better after the break (4.28 ERA vs 8.05 ERA, 5 HRs in 27 IP vs 11 HR in 35 IP), and maintained a strong BB/K rate throughout (25/61 in 62 IP). After his difficult season and only one really solid year in the last three, he's not going to get much more than the $370K he made this year. The downside, as the HR numbers indicated, is that he's a flyball pitcher, which can be problematic at the Dome. But overall, I think he'd be a very good low-cost gamble.

Do any of you Fan 590 listeners know if they are having scheduled reports from the GM Meeting this week in Arizona?

I listen only occasionally on the Internet and Live a 1000 miles away.

Any info on what shows to listen for Jays info or times would be great.

Thank You in advance for your help,

Jeff Geauvreau

I personally wouldn't consider dealing Rios and a good minor league arm for Sheets and Vizcaino. Sheets certainly shows good control but gives up a lot of homers and his long term prospects remind me of Chris Carpenter...right down to the inflamed rotator cuff which eventually tore in Carpenter. Vizcaino has a good arm similar to Politte but I wouldn't deal one of our good minor leaguers for him.

It's interesting that the Jays are going hard after potentially cheap candidates early. That's what they did last year and they probably ended up overpaying somewhat for what they bought. Hopefully they aren't afraid of paying a bit more for better options this time around. I like who they've talked to so far; with the possible exception of Carpenter. As much as I liked him I would hope he'd be a non-roster invitee...he has to prove his shoulder is sound. I'd rather St. Louis gamble a major league deal on him if they're so inclined.