the John Olerud of Colorado

Hi, I'm Todd Helton. You may remember me as the third-best hitter in the NL last year, *after* park adjustments.

Or, you may think of me as a John Olerud clone.

From Blair: "The resolve to test the market of first-time free agents such as Escobar is understandable — he wants $21-million (all figures U.S.) over three years; the Blue Jays would prefer $10-million over two years"

The soft market notwithstanding, I have to think Escobar can get $21MM over 3 years from someone. If not, or if he really wants to stay in Toronto, those two opposing offers seem made for negotiating something in the middle, say $17MM over 3 years.

Is Escobar worth $17MM over 3 years?

To some team he probably is. To the Blue Jays it all depends whether their payroll will increase or not. Spending under $6 million a year on an experienced and serviceable 2nd or at worst 3rd starter isn't terrible if you're good at filling out the rest of the staff with affordable solutions or young blood.

But the Jays will need more than $50 million if they want to keep Halladay and Escobar and Delgado and Wells and Hinske after 2004. I just don't see how that payroll will support everyone even with the large number of younger position players.

I'd feel much more comfortable with two years and $11 to $12 million than I would with three years at $17 million. If you're the Yankees or Padres or even the Orioles then why wouldn't you spend $7 million of your vast discretionary fund on a guy like Escobar? IMO, he's the most projectable guy out there outside of Colon or Millwood and his ceiling is equal to those guys.

Is there any place out there that has an educated guesstimate of what each team is likely to spend this offseason, and what positions they are focused on?

For instance, we know the Jays have $10-12 million, and they primarily need a couple starters and a couple relievers. But what about the other 29 teams?

It sounds like the Yankees and Orioles will be the biggest spenders, and a couple more teams may increase payrolls (like the Phils and Pads). Then there's teams like the Rangers that are cutting payroll. The other teams in between I haven't followed closely enough to know how much they'll have to spend, even if they keep the same general payroll amount.

What I'm getting at is that while everyone is in agreement that the market will be soft for hitters, I also think pitching will be below people's expectations as well.

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A few questions:

Is Monday the first day FAs can sign with teams, or is that just when they can discuss $?.

I know teams have until early December to offer arbitration, and players have until mid December to accept. If a player signs before they are offered arbitration is the former team out of luck (in terms of compensation)?

When can teams start offering arbitration?

I really wonder if Escobar will get that kind of dough. There are lots of arms available as good or better than him, even though some are much older:

Colon
Millwood
Pettite
Maddux
Wells
Hentgen
Ponson
Smoltz

Others who could be dealt include:

Vasquez
Garcia
Weaver
Schilling

Is $7 million a year for Kelvim a better value than what most of these guys will cost and deliver performance-wise? To me, he certainly belongs in this group, but teams have lots of pitching options this winter. I still think he'll be here for 2 years and $12 million.

I think for Escobar the length of the deal more than the dollars per year might be the more important factor. I doubt if the jays want to give hom three years and I do think he will find someone who will - even if its not for quite as much as he wants.

Teams can start offering contracts and even signing players on Monday. However the team previously owning the player doesn't have to offer arbitration until some time in December I think. If the player is signed before the team offers arbitration then compensation still must be paid.

That's why you might see a large number of free agents have to wait until the non-tender date because compensation might affect their attractiveness. Guys like Guerrero won't be an issue but guys like LaTroy Hawkins or David Wells may be if their current teams don't want to risk a large one year arbitration award.

If anyone knows when all the important dates fall this off-season it would help.

So any word if JP will offer Escobar arbitration? It doesn't seem to hurt the team that much to offer it to him and pay him 7 mil or so for this year, if indeed teams such as the Padres/Yanks can pay him 7 mil per. The draft pick compensation is nice, and this isn't the same situation as the Loaiza thing last year.

I really wonder if Escobar will get that kind of dough. There are lots of arms available as good or better than him, even though some are much older:

I forgot Pettite. He's probably the best free agent starter available taking everything into account. When you compare dollars to typical performance though, I think a lot of teams will like Escobar even more than Colon or Millwood. Escobar is willing to take $7 million a year and could probably approach the production of those two (look at the numbers this year, it's not out of the question). Add in that he's just 28 years old and Colon has already turned down $11 or $12 million for three years. Some teams might *prefer* Colon but enough to spend nearly double the money on him?

I really think Escobar is in a unique situation. The demand for frontline starters goes well beyond Pettite, Colon, and Millwood. Even if the Orioles are the only ones left with money to spend, $6 million over three years might be enough to get Kelvim. Which is a relative drop in the bucket given what they potentially have to spend this year.

Yeah, Pistol, my understanding is that any Free Agents who sign before that December date lead to free, no-strings attached compensation for the former team. For that reason, if anyone signs Cory Lidle within the next month we all should be doing some sort of dance of joy.

So any word if JP will offer Escobar arbitration?

I haven't heard, but I'd be astonished if JP didn't offer it. If Escobar goes, the team gets a sandwich pick after the first round and an additional late first/early second round pick, as well as $5M to spend on one of the array of pitchers available. If he stays, then an arbitrator sets his rate, which will probably be in the neighbourhood of $5M maximum for just one year anyway. It's a true no-lose proposition for the Jays.

I'd expect Escobar to be signed in November, which makes the arbitration question irrelevant

I'd be surprised to see Sheffield get a huge contract; certainly not a long-term one. He's a big bat, yes, but he's 34, a bit fragile, and may still have a reputation as a bit of a bad apple.

On the other hand, I can see several teams offering embarrassing contracts to Miguel Tejada. He's clutch, you know.

The other thing about Pettitte is that he's supposedly leaning towards the Astros, who are hoping to get him at a hometown discount. The union wouldn't be happy if Pettitte went that route, especially since he's one of the highest-profile starter available. I'm also cheered by Jeff Blair's thought that losing Pettitte may be enough to send Steinbrenner into Self-Destructive Overcompensation Mode (otherwise known as the Contreras-Weaver Effect).

I think JP will offer arbitration to Escobar. He will then see if anyone will sign him. If the above report/ rumour/conjecture is true, some team will have to pay $21 over 3 years plus lose some draft picks (as I understand it). In this day and age the draft picks are important to most teams as they allow them to keep costs down. They therefore may find it hard to match T.O.'s offer (?)

I think JP will then have the luxury of offering Escobar something like 5.0/5.5/6.0 over three years on the eve of the arbitartion hearing.

The downside is getting whacked with a bad hearing result for 1 year. If you couldn't live with it you just trade him after the all star break

If you could get this done it would be an increase in payroll of about 2 million. Add in another increase of 4 - 5 million this year (maybe less if its the first year of a long term deal) for Halladay and the Jays would still have about 4 million to play with this year and a lot more next year once they clear up Delgado's bloated salary.

Make any sense?

I don't think there's much danger at all in giving arbitration to Escobar. You're prepared to spend at least $5 million on him with a contract extension in any case and I doubt he'd get more than $6 million in an arbitration hearing. He's more likely to be considered an average closer since only about a third of his playing time has been as a starter over the past two years (the two most relevant to arbitrators).

A $6 million one year deal is just fine for the Jays. Instead of having $9 million locked up between Escobar and Lidle this year they'd have $6 million locked up in Escobar and another $4 to $6 million to spend on other pitchers. Plus they get the security of only being committed to the contract for one year. I don't see a downside.

Offer him the arbitration and since he wants a multiyear deal so badly it's very unlikely he'd go to a hearing anyway. The Jays will either have Escobar for one year, two years, or two extra picks and a different pitcher. Sounds good to me.

I'd expect Escobar to be signed in November

I don't think that Escobar's going to be at the top of anyone's pitching list. If the Jays don't sign him the team that does will be a team that misses out on the top FA pitchers and settles for Escobar.

Escobar is the type of player that I think teams will be scared off by because of compensation.

I expect Escobar not to get offers in the range he is looking for, accept arbitration, and then settle for 2 years, $11.5 million.

Hunsicker implied yesterday that the Astros still need to clear payroll (likely by moving Hidalgo - good luck) to make a play for Pettite.

Concerning Houston and Pettite...couldnt Houston just "back-load" the contract? Hidalgo comes off the books after 2004 ($12M in 2004, $2.0M buyout in 2005).

Apologising in advance for the hijack.

Was just on espn.com, and there award selections are up. There are seven anaysts with their picks posted. Doc for AL Cy Young was unanimous. Rob Neyer's picks were the best, as usual: Matsui, Podsednik, Halladay, Gagne, Pena, McKeon, ARod, Bonds.

Does anybody know what is up with Jayson Stark's backing of Stewart for AL MVP? Stark is a reputable guy. The pitfalls of "Shannon for MVP" have been well documented on batter's box, and are very obvious. Attributing the Twinkies surge to Stewart is clearly faulty, upon even a cursory glance at the numbers. Does Stark have a history of cooky award picks or prognostications? Is Stark's choice an attempt to gain publicity for himself by making a pick so crazy that people will remember who made it? Is Stark's pick some sort stickin-it-to-statheads thing? Why must a respected writer with such a huge readership propagate this stuff?

Rod Beaton also picked Stewart for MVP - 'The Twins wouldn't have made the playoffs without him'

I can't believe Neyer would pick Podsednik over Webb.

http://www.nationalpost.com/sports/story.html?id=4A907871-6465-40BC-B3AD-CF2E8AE66AD0
Here's an article on the Jays from the National Post (click on my name to read)

Ricciardi could not put a final figure on his shopping budget, saying it would depend on several variables, but said pitching, both starters and relievers, are his priority.

"Any way we can try to acquire people that can help us, that's our priority," he said, adding he feels good about the team's offence but he might seek a backup for Chris Woodward at shortstop.

While Ricciardi declined to discuss names of players he is targeting, some of the compelling low- to mid-range pitchers who might attract interest from the Blue Jays are starters Brian Anderson and Kenny Rogers, whom the team tried to sign before last season, and relievers Curtis Leskanic and Jason Grimsley.

What would happen if a team ( lets say the Yanks) sign more than one Type A Free Agent. Which team gets the first rounder? The team of teh player which was signed first?

[i]I can't believe Neyer would pick Podsednik over Webb.[/i]

Podsednik did out-winshare Webb, although Webb out-vorped Podsednik.

I still can't figure out how to make things appear in italics.

Leigh, use greater than/less than signs instead of square brackets.

Why don't the Jays try getting Curt Schilling off the D-backs? I know it sounds crazy but I think he'd be a perfect fit. First, he makes 12 mill next year but half of it is deferred, so he only adds 6 mill to the payroll this year, a bit more than they are offering Escobar and who would you rather have? Second, he's in the final year of his contract, so no getting stuck with anything longterm. Third, I think Gammons said he told Toronto coaches he'd be willing to come to Toronto and he likes the city, and while this is Gammons, there may be some truth to it. Maybe he'd be more willing to come here than to New York. Fourth, the D-backs are desperate to dump payroll, so it'd probably only cost 1 decent prospect - Maybe even John Ford or someone we don't really need in the system. Hopefully not a pitcher. But imagine a healthy Schilling and Halladay in the rotation next year. It would probably allow us to save Arnold for 2005, and give us Mcgowan, Bush and Arnold come 2005. Plus, the playoffs would be that much more attainable next year. 2 top tier starters plus an awesome offence and anything half decent from the 3 4 and 5 guys would probably get us there. Just a thought.

If the D-Back put Schilling up for trade he would be in pretty big demand. You can bet it's going to cost the Jays one of Rios, McGowan, Quiroz, and probably a second good prospect as well.

Tassle: Why would the jays want to sacrafice 6M of next years available funds for this upcoming season. Lets face it, we can get FA pitching for at worst a couple of next years draft picks and at best no body at all. While schiling had a decemt year last year, lets not forget he is getting on in years. If the jays were going to give up prospects for a pitcher on the diamond backs roster it would be Webb.

Third, I think Gammons said he told Toronto coaches he'd be willing to come to Toronto and he likes the city, and while this is Gammons, there may be some truth to it.

This was a very shaky rumor. Schilling supposedly said he wouldn't mind playing for Toronto, but we don't know what exactly he did say or what kind of context it was in. We don't even know if he made those statements to begin with (Schilling denies it and the Blue Jays coaches haven't said anything publicly on the subject).

After those rumors surfaced, Ricciardi quickly quashed any idea of Schilling coming to Toronto by saying the team couldn't afford his contract. There hasn't been anything in the past several months that would lead me to believe the situation now is any different.

If Schilling is available, I think you at least have to inquire what it would take to get him. There are only a handfull of pitchers in his league in baseball.

That being said, Toronto is one of the cities listed in his no-trade clause, therefore I really question the comments about him wishing to play in Ontario's capital city.

Anyone else wonder if Schilling is available, then maybe Johnson is available? Not that I think for a minute that either of them are coming to Toronto, but it's a pitcher like that that could put the Jays over the top. Otherwise I expect another season similar to last year.

According to the Sporting News, the Jays have signed Josue Matos<*/a> away from the Mariners as a six year free agent. His career numbers don't look very impressive until this past year where he was moved into the bullpen. He put up great numbers in San Antonio of the Texas League. This guy looks like a cheap player who could figure into next year's bullpen if he impresses during spring training.

P.S. I stumbled upon this by accident. Does anyone have a good source for this type of signing?

Ouch, I really ought to preview my posts.

Is San Antonio a pitchers park? I guess it doesn't really matter much when you strike out that many people.

2003: 88IP, 37BB, 104SO.

Nice. (assuming the acquisition true). It looks like Seattle have so many good pitching prospects they can't protect them all.

On Escobar: I'd be inclined to pay him more than the $10Million 2yr deal assuming you have the budget. Kelvim's demands seem vaguely reasonable. Dominating pitchers don't grow on trees unfortunately, and the Jays have a *gaping* hole that they sometimes call a rotation. Of course there is a chance that you flush your investment down the toilet when Kelvim turns into a pumpkin, but you have to take some risk sometime. What I see more likely happening is the Jays filling their rotation with Hentgen's and Batista's etc. who in the best world are solid, but you really want someone other than Halladay who will actually *win* games for you, rather than just hope the offence does it every time.

As another suggestion, given that the current market favours starters and not relievers, you might be better off spending money on a reliable reliever and press one of your relievers (either the one you just hired or one of the oft-mentioned suspects) into the rotation. I don't imagine you'll be getting a number one starter out of the deal this way but you might get a cheap back end of the rotation that's actually quite good. (So it still doesn't solve the front of the rotation problem.)

The Jays trading for Schilling has about the same chance of happening as Delgado being traded away. Schilling has a no trade clause and will refuse any trade unless he gets a contract extension out of it. In regards to his deferred money, why do you think the Snakes are trading him? They deferred so much in previous years they can't keep anyone around now.

Matos seems worth taking a flier on, but he doesn't look like anything more than a longshot reliever. He spent 2002 in AAA as a starter and got knocked around (25 HR in 135 innings, 95 K/35 BB). In 2003 he went back to AA as a reliever and put up strong numbers (88 innings, 8 HR, 104/37 K/BB).

On the San Antonio park: it is actually an extreme pitcher's park, or was in 2001. Don't know about since then.

Matos, though, is apparently a very impressive pitcher. He better be; Puerto Rico are starting him in the all-important semifinal of the Olympic Qualifying tournament.

Yeah, I went back and checked on the San Antonio park after posting. It is a pitcher's park. Dr. B is right though. It doesn't really matter when you strike out that many players in what I thought was a good hitting leageue. In any case, I suspect the Jays will use Matos in Syracuse initially.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_press_release.jsp?ymd=20031105&content_id=599822&vkey=pr_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor
Hijack:
Jays hire 9 new scouts !

From the Jays official site > news > press release on left hand side of page >under Huff promoted.

Click my name to go directly to story on Jays website.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_press_release.jsp?ymd=20031105&content_id=599822&vkey=pr_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor

Here is Matos home/road splits

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/minors/stats/2003/texsanantoniohmrd/

And here is Matos Lefty/Righty splits

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/minors/stats/2003/texsanantonioltrt/

Nothing that is an extreme outlier here which is a good sign