Aaron Gleeman has been examining the free agent crop all week. His first two installments dealt with outfielders, then infielders and catchers. Even though the Jays aren't shopping in those aisles, except for a clearance sale on a shortstop, I've been enjoying the series. Today, in The Meat Market (Part Three: Pitchers), Aaron takes a look at Toronto's #1 need. He calls Kelvim Escobar the potential sleeper among available starters, and is bullish on another soon-to-be-ex-Jay, Cory Lidle.
I think the thing that really hurt Lidle last year was his defense. In Oakland, he had one of the best defenses in the league at converting balls in play into outs playing behind him. In 2003, the Blue Jays finished 11th in the AL in "defensive efficiency" and Lidle allowed a hit on 30% of the balls put in play against him. I think he's a good bet to bounce back in 2004 and at least be a league-average pitcher.
While I'm not going to apologize for the shaky infield play, what hurt Lidle a lot more was his groin. After that very respectable May, Cory pitched in pain for months, and didn't shut it down until his shoulder started feeling the strain of his altered delivery. I agree that he should bounce back, if he's 100% healthy. Unfortunately, I don't think it will be in Toronto -- 2003 wasn't the best experience for Lidle and his family. If J.P. could convince him to return at about half last year's salary, I'd applaud the move, but it seems unlikely to happen.
So Lidle, and possibly Escobar, who will simply be too expensive for the budget-conscious Jays, could both go elsewhere and do well. Teeth will be gnashed, and Esteban Loaiza comparisons will be made. The fact is, sometimes a change of scenery is inevitable, and often it's necessary. Instead of lamenting the wouldas, couldas and shouldas in advance, I'm more interested in who's coming than who's going.
As a Twins fan, Gleeman saw a lot of Kenny Rogers last year, and the Jays seemed to be interested in him before. He'd be a nice fit. Among "the huge group of pitchers who have a lot of question-marks attached to them," Aaron likes Jeff Suppan and John Thomson, and I concur. I'd also welcome Wilson Alvarez, and of course, Pat Hentgen, to Toronto.
Last winter, J.P. identified the bullpen guys he wanted at the price he could afford, and signed them early. As we know, neither Jeff Tam nor Doug Creek worked out. This year, I'm wondering if the Jays wouldn't be better off waiting. With so many big name Proven Closers and veteran setup men on the market, there's a good chance that some talented relievers will still be available in January, at reduced rates. To speculate on who they might be is pure guesswork, but then, so is predicting a reliever's success from year to year.
I thought Arthur Rhodes was the best lefty setup man in the league at this time a year ago, and I'm certain that he pitched with injuries in 2003. My crystal ball isn't precise enough to know whether he'll be a huge bargain who returns to his previous form, or an expensive bust. A Gleeman favourite, Latroy Hawkins, has devastating stuff, which he has just begun to harness the last couple of years. His previous failures as a starter and closer might mean that he's pigeonholed by most clubs as a setup man, but I would love to see him in a Fighting Jays uniform, as the ace reliever, which would not mean working the ninth with a three run lead against the Tigers, but would mean two-inning saves against the Red Sox.
By the way, if you're interested in predicting where free agents will end up, the annual contest is under way at Baseball Primer. I have to agree with post #26 there; "Default Prediction Man" has everyone signing with their current team, except for all the relievers, who he has going to the Phillies.
I think the thing that really hurt Lidle last year was his defense. In Oakland, he had one of the best defenses in the league at converting balls in play into outs playing behind him. In 2003, the Blue Jays finished 11th in the AL in "defensive efficiency" and Lidle allowed a hit on 30% of the balls put in play against him. I think he's a good bet to bounce back in 2004 and at least be a league-average pitcher.
While I'm not going to apologize for the shaky infield play, what hurt Lidle a lot more was his groin. After that very respectable May, Cory pitched in pain for months, and didn't shut it down until his shoulder started feeling the strain of his altered delivery. I agree that he should bounce back, if he's 100% healthy. Unfortunately, I don't think it will be in Toronto -- 2003 wasn't the best experience for Lidle and his family. If J.P. could convince him to return at about half last year's salary, I'd applaud the move, but it seems unlikely to happen.
So Lidle, and possibly Escobar, who will simply be too expensive for the budget-conscious Jays, could both go elsewhere and do well. Teeth will be gnashed, and Esteban Loaiza comparisons will be made. The fact is, sometimes a change of scenery is inevitable, and often it's necessary. Instead of lamenting the wouldas, couldas and shouldas in advance, I'm more interested in who's coming than who's going.
As a Twins fan, Gleeman saw a lot of Kenny Rogers last year, and the Jays seemed to be interested in him before. He'd be a nice fit. Among "the huge group of pitchers who have a lot of question-marks attached to them," Aaron likes Jeff Suppan and John Thomson, and I concur. I'd also welcome Wilson Alvarez, and of course, Pat Hentgen, to Toronto.
Last winter, J.P. identified the bullpen guys he wanted at the price he could afford, and signed them early. As we know, neither Jeff Tam nor Doug Creek worked out. This year, I'm wondering if the Jays wouldn't be better off waiting. With so many big name Proven Closers and veteran setup men on the market, there's a good chance that some talented relievers will still be available in January, at reduced rates. To speculate on who they might be is pure guesswork, but then, so is predicting a reliever's success from year to year.
I thought Arthur Rhodes was the best lefty setup man in the league at this time a year ago, and I'm certain that he pitched with injuries in 2003. My crystal ball isn't precise enough to know whether he'll be a huge bargain who returns to his previous form, or an expensive bust. A Gleeman favourite, Latroy Hawkins, has devastating stuff, which he has just begun to harness the last couple of years. His previous failures as a starter and closer might mean that he's pigeonholed by most clubs as a setup man, but I would love to see him in a Fighting Jays uniform, as the ace reliever, which would not mean working the ninth with a three run lead against the Tigers, but would mean two-inning saves against the Red Sox.
By the way, if you're interested in predicting where free agents will end up, the annual contest is under way at Baseball Primer. I have to agree with post #26 there; "Default Prediction Man" has everyone signing with their current team, except for all the relievers, who he has going to the Phillies.
