I think Thomas is a bargain too, but who else would be willing to sign a DH for more than $6 million? Seattle is the only team that comes to mind.

Yeah, Thomas is a good deal at $6 million for the White Sox. A lot of teams could use Thomas, but with the market tight, and a DH usually a team's very last positional priority, I think he saw the writing on the wall.

Frank Thomas is one of the game's most intelligent hitters and will, I think, make someone a terrific hitting coach one of these days if he so desires.

Why would Quantrill blow off $3.1 mil per? Is the market that good for a middle reliever?

This could mean he wants out of LA, and might take a hit to do so.

I commented on Quantrill in another thread; the compensation issue, his age and his salary expectations will keep him from being a sought-after commodity. In this winter's tight market, I think he'll soon regret his decision.

The Big Hurt and his advisors made a much better choice. Thomas can get $8 MM and $10 MM the next two years by staying put, so the $24 million total "package" is much more than he'd receive anywhere else.

Seattle is a great spot for Molitor. With nothing to lose, he should enhance his qualifications as a potential manager and might actually have a positive impact on the M's anemic hitting numbers.

The outrageous trade rumours for Nomar notwithstanding, it seems that Texas is serious about getting out from under A-Rod's contract and retooling. Just like Manny, Alex may be traded -- for prospects, if some team can agree on how much cash the Red Sox or Rangers must kick in to make the deal feasible. It will make the Winter Meetings more interesting, for sure.

it seems that Texas is serious about getting out from under A-Rod's contract

Even if they lower their payroll to mid-low 80s they still have $55-60 million for non ARod players. $55-60 million is plenty to have a competitive team if you are run well - hell, the Marlins won the WS this year in that range.

A-Rod's contract is not the problem in Texas.

This could mean he wants out of LA, and might take a hit to do so.

Quantrill wants out of LA so that he can return to Toronto at a hometown discount, joining Aquilino Lopez and, yes, Mike Timlin, as a part of the Fighting Jay closing committee. Left-handed backup is provided by Trever Miller & Jason Kershner. Another bullpen spot is filled by a Rule V pick, the 7th by a 6 year free agent or one of the usual suspects: Pete Walker, Mark Hendrickson, Josh Towers, Vinnie Chulk. Pat Hentgen also returns to Toronto and joins the re-vamped rotation.

Oh wait, Gordo isn't in charge anymore is he...

Seriously though, the more I look at the budget room for 2004, the more excited I am about the possibility of a Wild Card push. There's very realistically $9M to spend on 3 starters and $4M to spend on two relievers. This is assuming $6M to Doc, which I think is entirely plausible - He likes Toronto enough to agree to a back-loaded deal, and this works well for the Jays as 1B becomes a lot cheaper in 2005.

Joe Morgan's Words of Widsom Today:

Joe (St Paul, MN): Hey Joe! I was wondering where you see the Twins next season with the free agent struggles that are ahead of them? If you were Pohlad, would you shell out the extra money (which you have) to keep Stewart or Hawkins, or do you let them go, rely on some of your farm talent (too bad Mauer is a year off) and then try to put some of that money towards a big bat on the market?

Joe Morgan: (11:30 AM ET ) I think they need to keep Shannon Stewart. He's the reason they got to the playoffs. I would keep him. The rest is a matter of how much you can spend. But Shannon kept that team together.

http://economics.about.com
It's funny how when a falsehood is repeated enough times, it becomes more true than the truth.

Frank Thomas is one of the game's most intelligent hitters and will, I think, make someone a terrific hitting coach one of these days if he so desires.

I remain highly sceptical that a great hitter has a good chance of becoming a good hitting coach. Here are my reasons:

1) Great hitters are famous and make lots of money - why then would then want to take a low-paying job when they could easily live off their fame (appearances, card shows, sponsorship of various products) until they get bored and decide to play golf. Managing I can see (though very few great players have gone on to be successful managers), because you are in a position of power and some people get off on that.

2) A great hitting coach has to be a great communicator. Things that Frank Thomas knows about hitting are not necessarily things he can easily communicate.

3) An approach that works for a great hitter may not work for a less talented player. Frank is a great hitter because of his batting eye and power. It's possible to refine these skills if a player has them, but a great hitting coach has to bring out the best of whatever the hitter has to offer. This requires a hitting coach to be perceptive and non-dogmatic. I think ego intereferes with that and I think most great hitters have massive egos.

That said, Paul Molitor might break the mold: he wasn't a great hitter until the late middle of his career and seems like a humble guy.

Darn, I was looking for some piece of nonsense on Mike's About.com website to skewer, but nothing came readily to hand.

Good job, Mike.

This requires a hitting coach to be perceptive and non-dogmatic. I think ego intereferes with that and I think most great hitters have massive egos.

Yeah, I think in general that's a drawback. In the Big Hurt's case, I can see the problem... particularly if he wanted a player to do something that the player wasn't comfortable with.

But Thomas has worked so much at his hitting... in particular, he has had several changes of style over the years as he attempted to react to different circumstances. And he has learned at the feet of a great master in Walt Hriniak. It would be a shame if that accumulated store of knowledge went to waste.

Here's some nonsense...

From Mike Moffatt:
Economics can be much more than dry academic discussions on dynamic programming and yield curves. Economic laws can help us understand anything from the location of bathrooms in government buildings to successful dating strategies.

Yield curves aren't dry!

http://economics.about.com
Darn, I was looking for some piece of nonsense on Mike's About.com website to skewer, but nothing came readily to hand.

Keep looking. I could use the commission.

Good job, Mike.

Thanks, but it really has little to do with me. I've said a lot of stupid things on the site, though. My readers are really, really quick to point them out, so any errors get fixed pretty quickly.

Yesterday was a good day. I got about 20 e-mails from readers (which is a pretty slow day), and 19 of them were questions people thought I should answer on the site. The 20th was the only criticism; it was from some guy who wrote "Buy a better haircut".

Today I know I won't get any criticism or hate mail. Our e-mail server is down. :)

Mike

Robert makes good points about great hitters not necessarily being great batting coaches. Anybody who has been to university can probably relate: The worst profs I had were not bad profs because they didn't know their stuff, but because they were unable or unmotivated to communicate their knowledge in a way that a less intelligent person could understand.

http://economics.about.com
Yield curves aren't dry!

Yes they are. My undergrad thesis (and Master's Essay for Queen's) was titled "Predicting Inflation Using The Yield Curve in Canada". If I never see another yield curve in my life I'll be happy. Assuming of course the reason I don't see them isn't because I went blind or something.

I should really change that "From: Mike Moffatt" thing. The purpose of the site has changed a ton since I wrote that. For some reason, whenver I write an article on something I find interesting like the Softwood Lumber Dispute, nobody reads it, but if I write an article on something boring like how you can calculate marginal cost, it gets huge page views. I have no idea on why that's the case, but I've decided to write articles like that from now on. So no articles on bathrooms or dating anytime soon.

I also need to change my bio because my research has changed quite a bit.

--

So back on topic: Why would ARod for Nomar be such an absurd trade? It doesn't seem plausable, but it doesn't sound unreasonable.

Mike

at just $6 million next year, the Big Hurt (.267/.390/.562 in 2003) is a big bargain

He has player options for $8MM in 2005 and $10MM in 2006 with a $3.5MM buyout the last season so it's not really $6MM. He's essentially keeping the option open to make $17.5MM over the next two years or $24MM over the next 3. Considering he'll be 36 in May, he probably wouldn't make that on the open market. It's a smart move on his part.

Spicol, Thanks for the information on Thomas' options in 2005 and 2006. I was wondering why he would have exercised the 2004 option rather than testing the market, but that explains it.

I commented on Quantrill in another thread; the compensation issue, his age and his salary expectations will keep him from being a sought-after commodity.

To say nothing of the peril that lies ahead in another off-season of tobagonning... or was it truck washing?

I think its safe to say that the Jays have enough $$ that their problem revolves around finding someone worthwhile to spend (and not overspend) the money on

It's an interesting point that Robert makes about great hitters as hitting coaches. There are certainly some great hitters who studied hitting extensively, and might have made good hitting coaches. Rod Carew, Ted Williams maybe. I'd bet that Olerud would make a good hitting coach when he retires.

Frank Thomas has something of a reputation for being selfish, and I guess I sort of accepted it (this was before I began to understand the power of the mass media to disseminate half-truths), but I became impressed with him after I saw him stay literally two hours after a spring training game to autographs for a really, really long line of kids. Rightly or wrongly, much of our perceptions of people are based not only on their actions, but if we also happen to see for ourselves those actions.

I have mentioned too many times why I don't like Bonds the person -- while always qualifying that my dislike of him in no way interferes with my analysis of him as a player -- and that is because I have seen him, in person, from literally two feet away, be so surly to so many on so many occasions, especially during spring training. Really, Bonds is the excetion; most major leaguers are highly accessible during spring training. Bip Roberts is probably the nicest baseball player I have ever been around, and Trevor Hoffman, among countless others, really, is right there as well. Even Ken Griffey Jr, pre-surly days, signed autographs and talked to fans.

When March rolls around, I urge all those who can to get down to Dunedin; it's a magnificent experience, and you may just learn something good about a player that will take you off guard.

Moffatt, you don't even need to say outright that "Shannon Stewart was why the Twins made the playoffs." Insinuate it enough -- "The Twins made the playoffs, even though they were down and out until they acquired Shannon Stewart" -- and that will work just as well. Know any practical, real-world examples we could use to illustrate that point?

A-Rod for Nomar? Just think if the Red Sox made that trade and didn't trade Manny.

http://economics.about.com
Moffatt, you don't even need to say outright that "Shannon Stewart was why the Twins made the playoffs." Insinuate it enough -- "The Twins made the playoffs, even though they were down and out until they acquired Shannon Stewart" -- and that will work just as well. Know any practical, real-world examples we could use to illustrate that point?

I believe there's some unpleasentness around the Tigris and Euphrates that could be used to reinforce that point.

There was also something in Mein Kampf, but I threw out my copy as pre the request of a Jewish girl I was dating. She may have been related to Heather Reisman. I'm not sure.

There is absolutely no connection between the two examples I've cited.

Mike

Joe Morgan's Words of Widsom Today II:

Millwood wears down in second half, doesn't sustain first half efforts each year. Good in first half, average in second.

2003 Pre All-Star ERA: 3.60
2003 Post All-Star ERA: 4.58

A first! A fact to match Joe's opinion? Or...is it?

3 Previous Years:

Pre All-Star: 3.86
Post All-Star: 3.70

Even when Morgan is right, he's wrong.

I can't help but read Morgan, because it's fascinating how someone can be so respected as an analyst yet so consistently ignore the facts.

I find this Quantrill development to be very curious. Surely he and his agent realize that this years free agent relief market is quite bountifull and the chances of bettering on the open market the Dodgers 3.1 million for 2004 somewhat small. Does he have a 2 -3 year deal on the table from another organization giving up short term gain for long term security?

In June, Tom Mahoney the former National Post beat writer who is now the Calgary Herald's sports editor ran an exclusive Herald story with Riccardi. He asked J.P. what move he most regretted during his tenure with the Jays, his response...trading Quantrill.

It would not surprise me in the least if Q returns to his home and native land for 2004/05 with a 5 million dollar deal in hand. My only question is how can the Dodgers offer arbitration to someone who exercised his option to leave? By having used this "player option" does not the resultant free agent compensation become null and void?

Incidentally Quantrill's 3 year splits for the road verses home are quite good, 1.99 ERA vs 3.05 at home.

Rich, Joe Morgan is proof that there are several different kinds of baseball intelligence. While I certainly wouldn't want him to be a GM of my team, as a ballplayer and as an announcer, he has a keen appreciation of the nuances of what is going on on the field. He was the best player that I ever saw at reading the pitchout.

Mike, that is a very valid point and it is well taken. What I find unfortunate is that Morgan isn't able or willing to stick to commenting on the elements of the game that he really does know about, such as in-game strategy, technical "skills" of the game, and other nuances. When he starts evaluating player peformance, he is so far out of his depth it is frightening. A Hall of Famer he may be, but it doesn't help his credibility to be constantly making factually incorrect pronouncements (Billy Beane did NOT write Moneyball, Joe).

Since ESPN and Fox are the highest profile analyst jobs out there, could they not find the very best of the best - guys who know both the game inside the game as well as have their facts straight when looking at the big picture? Hell, they managed to poach Dan Shulman away...

Hi Wildrose,

I took a look at Paul Quantrill's 3-year split (from ESPN). The home and away ERA might be a bit illusory. All his numbers apart from ER/ERA are pretty much identical home and away (though ESPN does not give slugging percentages). HR, BB, SO, and AVG against are all pretty much identical whether he was home or away. There only two explanations; he was genuinely worse at home and was giving up a lot more doubles and triples, or that he was just a victim of bad luck.

One thing that surprised me was how *good* Quantrill's number's were. I always thought he was a bit over-rated because people didn't notice that he was getting thumped by lefties. He still has a bit of a platoon split but now, at worst, he is decent against lefties. All, that said, I can't understand *why* he would give up a guaranteed contract for $3M. That's real good money for a middle reliever. Yes, some clubs might pay big money for that, but he doesn't have that blazing fastball which makes those with big cheque books salivate. For the amount of money he turned down he's looking to play for the Yankees or Cubs.

Good points Dr. B and Wildrose about Paul Quantrill's regarding his reasoning for turning down his player option.

I think worse case scenario Paul accepts arbitration from the Dodgers and gets a nice pay raise.

If the Dodgers don't offer arbitration then he will make out like a bandit!

Paul a word of advice, I would sell your snowmobile right now!