Thanks to Andrew Edwards for this item at Baseball Prospectus about the top-of-the-line outfield at AA New Haven this past season. Most of what's there will be familiar to regular Bauxites, but writer David Cameron provides a detailed and intriguing breakdown of various stats, concluding that Gabe Gross, rather than Alexis Rios, is the safest bet for major-league success (though he readily admits that all three have terrific upside). It would be good to see someone tackle all the Ravens' stars in 2003, which included at various times these three players as well as Guillermo Quiroz, Russ Adams, David Bush, Dustin McGowan, and Tyrell Godwin. A more talented bunch the Jays' system may never see again on one roster.
I just noticed that Pistol referenced the same column in a different thread -- kudos to him as well! Batter's Box readers are some of the fastest news-breakers in the game.
Jordan, It might be quite a while until the Jays have three position prospects as good as Rios, Quiroz and Gross at a double A level team or higher. But, the way I see it, the 2005 Manchester ballclub should have some fabulous pitching prospects, with a rotation that should be better than McGowan, Bush, Gassner, Reimers and Baker.
One part of Cameron's analysis that I don't agree with is that he takes very little account of singles because "luck" is an important factor, and this is a large part of the reason that he rates Rios behind Gross. In Rios' case, his ability to hit singles is significantly affected by his speed.
And again, there was no discussion about the home park differences for right and left-handed hitters. I realize that minor league right/left splits are not easy to obtain.
One part of Cameron's analysis that I don't agree with is that he takes very little account of singles because "luck" is an important factor, and this is a large part of the reason that he rates Rios behind Gross. In Rios' case, his ability to hit singles is significantly affected by his speed.
And again, there was no discussion about the home park differences for right and left-handed hitters. I realize that minor league right/left splits are not easy to obtain.
Looking at the chart both JFG and Gross had spikes in their XBH% this year when both were 23. Rios' XBH% at age 22 were similar to both JFG and Gross at the same age. It'll be interesting to see if jumps up further again next year in Syracuse.
Even after reading that I would rate Rios higher than Gross. He's done a little bit more at an earlier age. At 22 Gross struggled in AA. At 22 Rios was MVP in AA.
I think the main difference between Gross and Rios is that Gross' future performance will be in a relatively small range, where Rios will have a much larger range, that includes a higher ceiling.
I think that may have been part of the reasoning for Gross over Rios -plus with the walks Gross is more of a BP player (plus he's killing the AFL).
Even after reading that I would rate Rios higher than Gross. He's done a little bit more at an earlier age. At 22 Gross struggled in AA. At 22 Rios was MVP in AA.
I think the main difference between Gross and Rios is that Gross' future performance will be in a relatively small range, where Rios will have a much larger range, that includes a higher ceiling.
I think that may have been part of the reasoning for Gross over Rios -plus with the walks Gross is more of a BP player (plus he's killing the AFL).
Ah, but through the magic of... well, call it magic... I managed to lay my dirty little hands on Alexis Rios' home/road splits for his mighty 2003.
If anything, Yale Field hurt him. That's a heckuva road line.
He had 26 more points of BA and 46 more points of ISO on the road.
G AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS GDP SLG
Home 62 .339 248 37 84 14 2 6 32 16 38 7 2 15 .484
Road 65 .365 266 49 97 18 9 5 50 23 47 4 1 7 .556
If anything, Yale Field hurt him. That's a heckuva road line.
He had 26 more points of BA and 46 more points of ISO on the road.
I think all three will be good major league outfielders, however if I had to pick one to keep it would be Rios. He is younger, had a fantastic year at New Haven, is the better outfielder and has yet to fill out thus could develop monster power.
I'm not sold that JF Griffen should be moved to 1st. I don't think he will put up the numbers you would like to see from a 1st baseman. Also going from Delgado to Griffen would be too great a drop off for me to take.
I'm not sold that JF Griffen should be moved to 1st. I don't think he will put up the numbers you would like to see from a 1st baseman. Also going from Delgado to Griffen would be too great a drop off for me to take.
Thanks, Keith, er Craig. I had the mid-term report courtesy of BA, and I knew from doing the regular minor league updates on the official site, that the final numbers would be about the same. But, your source is much more thorough than BA's. I had no idea that he hit most of his triples on the road (didn't notice it during the season), and I would have guessed that with the dimensions of Yale Field, more would have been at home than on the road.
Incidentally, I think the differential for Quiroz is about the same, and for Gross and Griffin, there were significant home-field advantages.
Incidentally, I think the differential for Quiroz is about the same, and for Gross and Griffin, there were significant home-field advantages.
Due to the presence of Vernon Wells, the Jays won't need to test Rios' range in center, and he should settle in comfortably as an above average corner outfielder with the glove.
Hey Mike Green:
That David Cameron sure doesn't know what he is talking about.
Hey Mike Green:
That David Cameron sure doesn't know what he is talking about.
Now, Devo had the legs of a centerfielder.
Anyways, I didn't say that Rios should be the centerfielder, just that by 2005, it would be wise to consider the matter. Cameron is just assuming that Vernon will be the centerfielder because he is there now, and he is a good one now.
My advice to ghost centerfielders on Halloween: carry a flashlight because you wouldn't want to be running into any walls.
Anyways, I didn't say that Rios should be the centerfielder, just that by 2005, it would be wise to consider the matter. Cameron is just assuming that Vernon will be the centerfielder because he is there now, and he is a good one now.
My advice to ghost centerfielders on Halloween: carry a flashlight because you wouldn't want to be running into any walls.
http://economics.about.com
Completely OT:
Someone e-mailed me regarding my "Baseball Players and Opportunity Costs" article, and he wants to know what he should use for replacement level ERA and AVG/OBP/SLG. He's going to use it as an assignment for a class.
If someone has an answer, I'd really appreciate it.
Cheers,
Mike
Completely OT:
Someone e-mailed me regarding my "Baseball Players and Opportunity Costs" article, and he wants to know what he should use for replacement level ERA and AVG/OBP/SLG. He's going to use it as an assignment for a class.
If someone has an answer, I'd really appreciate it.
Cheers,
Mike
Mike, is he going position-by-position? I am assuming he wants one, league-wide figure for pitchers and hitters in each league in 2003.
A quote from Keith Woolner:
"using the 1998 season MLB statistics to date, a all-replacement-level team would hit about .235/.300/.356 and have a RA of 5.85".
That RA of 5.85 translates to an ERA of about 5.30.
A quote from Keith Woolner:
"using the 1998 season MLB statistics to date, a all-replacement-level team would hit about .235/.300/.356 and have a RA of 5.85".
That RA of 5.85 translates to an ERA of about 5.30.
http://economics.about.com
I imagine it's going to be a fairly simple exercise, so I don't think they'll want anything more complicated than that.
Thanks for the data. I'll pass it along.
Cheers,
Mike
I imagine it's going to be a fairly simple exercise, so I don't think they'll want anything more complicated than that.
Thanks for the data. I'll pass it along.
Cheers,
Mike
http://www.baseballprospectus.com
Thanks to Gideon for the link and you guys for the constructive responses. I'll attempt to answer a few of your questions, but am glad to defer to the BB as the closest thing to an authority on Blue Jays' prospects out there.
1. I was aware of Yale Field's park effects on Rios and Gross, but would warn about the trappings of reading too much into minor differences in home/road performances. Rios' numbers were certainly better on the road, but he was terrific in both places. We lack the evidence to say that his road numbers are a better indicator of future performance than his home or overall numbers. Yale Field was not Coastal Federal Field or Woolf Stadium, tough on hitters enough to the point where home numbers need to be severely discounted. Could his home park have deflated Rios' overall numbers? Certainly, but the discrepency isn't that large, and we lack the evidence to blame the entire difference on the stadium.
2. If it came across as dismissing singles as luck, than I worded the article poorly. My point, in reference to singles being effected the most by random occurrance, was more to explain why I wasn't overly worried about Gross' drop in batting average after the move to Triple-A. Rios' speed and contact ability certainly give him an edge in hitting for singles compared to his outfield counterparts, and he has shown the best bat control of the trio to date. I think it is entirely likely, even probable, that Rios will have a higher rate of hits via single than Gross or Griffin for the rest of their careers.
3. Pistol essentially hit the nail on the head in that I would choose Gross because of the more stable projection in lieu of Rios' potential. I have few problems seeing Gross developing into a .280/.370/.500 hitter, with potential to go beyond that if he continues to develop power. A good comparison might be Jay Buhner, with a slightly higher batting average and less strikeouts. Rios could easily match or best those numbers, but his plate discipline issues also leave open the possibility that he hits .290/.330/.460 for his career and becomes the second coming of Raul Mondesi. I don't believe the difference in potential is as great as people make it out to be, but the risk factor is exponentially higher with Rios.
4. Defensively, I don't see Rios staying in center field, regardless of the future of Vernon Wells. Rios has the range for center right now, but he's a relatively thin 6'6 22-year-old. He is certainly going to grow, and as he adds mass, I'd expect him to lose a step, possibly two, and make center field a bit of a stretch. I'd compare him defensive to Richard Hidalgo, who came up as a CF but was wisely shifted to a corner position after adding weight. Rios could be spotted in center in the future, and with hard work could pull a Jim Edmonds, but I think the position he adds the most defensive value will be left field.
Keep up the good work here fellas.
Dave
Thanks to Gideon for the link and you guys for the constructive responses. I'll attempt to answer a few of your questions, but am glad to defer to the BB as the closest thing to an authority on Blue Jays' prospects out there.
1. I was aware of Yale Field's park effects on Rios and Gross, but would warn about the trappings of reading too much into minor differences in home/road performances. Rios' numbers were certainly better on the road, but he was terrific in both places. We lack the evidence to say that his road numbers are a better indicator of future performance than his home or overall numbers. Yale Field was not Coastal Federal Field or Woolf Stadium, tough on hitters enough to the point where home numbers need to be severely discounted. Could his home park have deflated Rios' overall numbers? Certainly, but the discrepency isn't that large, and we lack the evidence to blame the entire difference on the stadium.
2. If it came across as dismissing singles as luck, than I worded the article poorly. My point, in reference to singles being effected the most by random occurrance, was more to explain why I wasn't overly worried about Gross' drop in batting average after the move to Triple-A. Rios' speed and contact ability certainly give him an edge in hitting for singles compared to his outfield counterparts, and he has shown the best bat control of the trio to date. I think it is entirely likely, even probable, that Rios will have a higher rate of hits via single than Gross or Griffin for the rest of their careers.
3. Pistol essentially hit the nail on the head in that I would choose Gross because of the more stable projection in lieu of Rios' potential. I have few problems seeing Gross developing into a .280/.370/.500 hitter, with potential to go beyond that if he continues to develop power. A good comparison might be Jay Buhner, with a slightly higher batting average and less strikeouts. Rios could easily match or best those numbers, but his plate discipline issues also leave open the possibility that he hits .290/.330/.460 for his career and becomes the second coming of Raul Mondesi. I don't believe the difference in potential is as great as people make it out to be, but the risk factor is exponentially higher with Rios.
4. Defensively, I don't see Rios staying in center field, regardless of the future of Vernon Wells. Rios has the range for center right now, but he's a relatively thin 6'6 22-year-old. He is certainly going to grow, and as he adds mass, I'd expect him to lose a step, possibly two, and make center field a bit of a stretch. I'd compare him defensive to Richard Hidalgo, who came up as a CF but was wisely shifted to a corner position after adding weight. Rios could be spotted in center in the future, and with hard work could pull a Jim Edmonds, but I think the position he adds the most defensive value will be left field.
Keep up the good work here fellas.
Dave
Dave,
Thanks for coming on here to follow up on your article; I enjoyed both the original work and your reply. Somehow I suspect that JP and Co. would be willing to live with a Jay Buhner-like player. I haven't heard that comp before, but I can't say I mind it.
Thanks for coming on here to follow up on your article; I enjoyed both the original work and your reply. Somehow I suspect that JP and Co. would be willing to live with a Jay Buhner-like player. I haven't heard that comp before, but I can't say I mind it.
How high are the jays on Gross. I know that he had a pretty good year with New Haven and Syracuse and is currently ripping it up in the fall league hitting around 340 for team USA. How good are his chances of becoming a future all-star and is there a good possibility that we have not just one(Rios) but 2 terrific future all-star outfielders in the minors.
Thanks to David Cameron for responding. Yale Field has a short right field porch and is long to left and centre. Kind of like Yankee Stadium, but perhaps a bit more extreme. The right-handed power hitters Rios and Quiroz hit much better on the road than at home, whereas the left-handed power hitters Gross and Griffin hit much better at home than on the road. I think you have to take into account the park in evaluating the relative abilities of the players.
David, I think you're right that Gross' projection is probably more stable, but that is purely an instinctive guess based on impressions about their maturity levels. Gross' college and minor league career has been erratic, mixing in great seasons with poor ones. In his junior year in Auburn, he had probably the 2nd best season in the college's history (between two of Frank Thomas' seasons), but fell off considerably as a senior. His 2002 season in double A was quite poor.
However, if Gross' ceiling is .280/.370/.500 in Skydome, I'd say Rios' ceiling is .320/.420/.600 in Skydome. I'm not saying that he will do this, just that you can see the potential for this in his performance and his physique. Rios' offensive performance at New Haven was substantially better than Gross' and he was a year and some younger.
David, I think you're right that Gross' projection is probably more stable, but that is purely an instinctive guess based on impressions about their maturity levels. Gross' college and minor league career has been erratic, mixing in great seasons with poor ones. In his junior year in Auburn, he had probably the 2nd best season in the college's history (between two of Frank Thomas' seasons), but fell off considerably as a senior. His 2002 season in double A was quite poor.
However, if Gross' ceiling is .280/.370/.500 in Skydome, I'd say Rios' ceiling is .320/.420/.600 in Skydome. I'm not saying that he will do this, just that you can see the potential for this in his performance and his physique. Rios' offensive performance at New Haven was substantially better than Gross' and he was a year and some younger.
if Gross' ceiling is .280/.370/.500 in Skydome, I'd say Rios' ceiling is .320/.420/.600 in Skydome
Mike, your ceiling projections estimate that Rios's OBP will be better than Gross's even if batting average is discounted (assuming they both perform to this level). Considering that over the past 3 years Gross has walked at roughly double the rate Rios has, what would indicate to you that Rios might be able to post an OBP 100 points higher than his batting average? Even a continued improvement in plate discipline isn't going to add that much to Rios's OBP.
Mike, your ceiling projections estimate that Rios's OBP will be better than Gross's even if batting average is discounted (assuming they both perform to this level). Considering that over the past 3 years Gross has walked at roughly double the rate Rios has, what would indicate to you that Rios might be able to post an OBP 100 points higher than his batting average? Even a continued improvement in plate discipline isn't going to add that much to Rios's OBP.
You know, I'm a New Haven resident who just found out about the Ravens and just started following minor league baseball this fall. I read that Prospectus article, was incredibly, incredibly excited, and run to the Ravens website -- only to find that they shut down and moved out on September 15th.
Do you have any other recommendations for minor league teams to watch in this area?
Do you have any other recommendations for minor league teams to watch in this area?
Joyce - Your best bet for minor league baseball around New Haven would be New Britain and Norwich. Both are AA teams; New Britain is the Twins affiliate and Norwich is the Giants affiliate.
Both are considerably nicer parks than Yale Field, although further away from you.
Thanks to Dave for stopping by and following up on his column.
Both are considerably nicer parks than Yale Field, although further away from you.
Thanks to Dave for stopping by and following up on his column.
You've also got to think that at some point somebody is going to get traded -- for Griffin's sake, let's hope it's not him. How many times does a prospect have to get traded before he starts to doubt his abilities? Mr. Chen? Answers?
Both Rios and Gross got into the action yesterday on the first day of the Americas Pre-Olympic Qualifying Tournament: Rios homered in PR's loss to The Good Guys, and Gross (getting the unexpected start) came through with an RBI double in USA's 7-0 shutout over Nicaragua.
On a separate note, theDenver Post reports the Jays have shown interest in acquiring the services of ex-closer Jose Jimenez.
On a separate note, the
If it came across as dismissing singles as luck, than I worded the article poorly.
Not at all, Dave. Keep in mind that Mike Green is a contrarian who should start his own blog called "You're Wrong," which I'm sure would blow Batter's Box out of the water. In fact, points 1, 2 and 4 in your clarification are in response to MG's knee-jerk negativity and nitpicking, not to the 99.9% of Box readers and 100% of authors who appreciated and understood the original article. Sure enough, he was compelled to reply to your third point, and guess what? He disagrees.
That John-Ford Griffin is the odd man out of the group is more a testament to the Blue Jays' depth than to his failings as a prospect, and I would imagine 29 other major league franchises would love to have Griffin in their system.
For sure; especially the franchise that traded him, Jason Arnold and Ted Lilly away for Jeff Weaver. It's always great when an impartial and knowledgeable observer backs up what some of us say around here, only to be accused of misplaced optimism. Mostly because he hasn't had an injury-free pro season yet, JFG certainly "lags behind" Gross and Rios, but it could be his turn to break out in 2004. It's the depth, more than the progress or potential of any one of the three, that makes me hopeful about the Jays' future.
A good comparison might be Jay Buhner, with a slightly higher batting average and less strikeouts.
That would be just fine, as J.P. is unlikely to trade Gross for the next Ken Phelps. Gabe lacks the cool nickname and distinctive haircut, but Jays fans will settle for memories like these if he sticks around for a while like "Bone" did in Seattle.
Not at all, Dave. Keep in mind that Mike Green is a contrarian who should start his own blog called "You're Wrong," which I'm sure would blow Batter's Box out of the water. In fact, points 1, 2 and 4 in your clarification are in response to MG's knee-jerk negativity and nitpicking, not to the 99.9% of Box readers and 100% of authors who appreciated and understood the original article. Sure enough, he was compelled to reply to your third point, and guess what? He disagrees.
That John-Ford Griffin is the odd man out of the group is more a testament to the Blue Jays' depth than to his failings as a prospect, and I would imagine 29 other major league franchises would love to have Griffin in their system.
For sure; especially the franchise that traded him, Jason Arnold and Ted Lilly away for Jeff Weaver. It's always great when an impartial and knowledgeable observer backs up what some of us say around here, only to be accused of misplaced optimism. Mostly because he hasn't had an injury-free pro season yet, JFG certainly "lags behind" Gross and Rios, but it could be his turn to break out in 2004. It's the depth, more than the progress or potential of any one of the three, that makes me hopeful about the Jays' future.
A good comparison might be Jay Buhner, with a slightly higher batting average and less strikeouts.
That would be just fine, as J.P. is unlikely to trade Gross for the next Ken Phelps. Gabe lacks the cool nickname and distinctive haircut, but Jays fans will settle for memories like these if he sticks around for a while like "Bone" did in Seattle.
I had a feeling the Jays would be interested in Jimenez, though I hope it's as a fourth starter rather than as a short reliever. I just don't think he has the strikeout rate to be reliable as a short stint guy but seems to show a low walk rate over a large number of innings which isn't bad considering his home park. He could become a finesse starter but there is a considerable downside with him as well. His control should make him more useful than Tanyon Sturtze at any rate.
One oddity with Jimenez: taking a 3 year split his home/road ERA are fairly even although his control, strikeout rate, and opp avg are significantly better in Colorado (.277, 83/32 k/bb in 136.2 ip) than away (.310, 49/33 k/bb in 93.1 ip). I don't know what this means other than to say it's chance. Entirely possible since that's only one year's worth of innings for a workhorse starter. He is an extreme groundball pitcher with fairly good control so it's possible he could do the job as a 4th starter, assuming the left side of the infield is more stable defensively.
One bad thing about Jiminez as a starter though is his left/right splits are extreme. If you stack lefthanded hitters against him it could get ugly. Which would mean the only role he might be good at is a replacement for Jeff Tam as the "finesse groundballer" which I don't think is a priority role.
One oddity with Jimenez: taking a 3 year split his home/road ERA are fairly even although his control, strikeout rate, and opp avg are significantly better in Colorado (.277, 83/32 k/bb in 136.2 ip) than away (.310, 49/33 k/bb in 93.1 ip). I don't know what this means other than to say it's chance. Entirely possible since that's only one year's worth of innings for a workhorse starter. He is an extreme groundball pitcher with fairly good control so it's possible he could do the job as a 4th starter, assuming the left side of the infield is more stable defensively.
One bad thing about Jiminez as a starter though is his left/right splits are extreme. If you stack lefthanded hitters against him it could get ugly. Which would mean the only role he might be good at is a replacement for Jeff Tam as the "finesse groundballer" which I don't think is a priority role.
Not at all, Dave. Keep in mind that Mike Green is a contrarian who should start his own blog called "You're Wrong,"
I think Mike Green is great to have around. It's one thing to be a contrarian, but it's another thing to be a contrarian who can fully support his opinion like Mike does.
On a separate note, the Denver Post reports the Jays have shown interest in acquiring the services of ex-closer Jose Jimenez.
I can't get this page to load. Can someone post the highlites?
What are the contract issues, what level of compensation would be involved, how would the Jays use him, etc..
I think Mike Green is great to have around. It's one thing to be a contrarian, but it's another thing to be a contrarian who can fully support his opinion like Mike does.
On a separate note, the Denver Post reports the Jays have shown interest in acquiring the services of ex-closer Jose Jimenez.
I can't get this page to load. Can someone post the highlites?
What are the contract issues, what level of compensation would be involved, how would the Jays use him, etc..
Nevermind, Jiminez is a FA now. The Rockies designated him for assignment a few weeks ago.
Imagine it? Coach being judgmental, preachy and poster smothering when it comes to his widely popular public creation, Batter's Box? No, never. As far as Mike Green and others go, just because you don't particularly see the value in their diversity, a Mr. Green is every bit as valuable and interesting to the development of this site, as it is true for the longer mainstays like Pistol, Moffatt, Gitz and all the many many other wonderful contributors.
P.S. I'm not trying to be malicious, this needed to be pointed out long ago. We all have things about us that make us different. Kent can be critical of others, and it should only be fair and mature that he take criticism as well. Thank you for you're time, now back to the young studs of New Haven.
P.S. I'm not trying to be malicious, this needed to be pointed out long ago. We all have things about us that make us different. Kent can be critical of others, and it should only be fair and mature that he take criticism as well. Thank you for you're time, now back to the young studs of New Haven.
http://economics.about.com
Respectfully decline to "out" myself
Is that supposed to be some kind of Mike Piazza joke?
I think the problem is that no matter what the consensus position is, MG *always* takes the opposite. Without fail. So you begin to wonder if he's being honest or if he's just here to cause problems. At first I thought he was legit, but now I'm not so sure.
There's no problem with disagreeing with people. A healthy debate is good when you're here just to bait people into arguing with you, it's gone too far.
Mike
(who is more than willing to "out" himself)
Respectfully decline to "out" myself
Is that supposed to be some kind of Mike Piazza joke?
I think the problem is that no matter what the consensus position is, MG *always* takes the opposite. Without fail. So you begin to wonder if he's being honest or if he's just here to cause problems. At first I thought he was legit, but now I'm not so sure.
There's no problem with disagreeing with people. A healthy debate is good when you're here just to bait people into arguing with you, it's gone too far.
Mike
(who is more than willing to "out" himself)
(who is more than willing to "out" himself)
What?! I never signed up to be a beard.
What?! I never signed up to be a beard.
Please, let's not become inundated with Piazza jokes.
Unless they're baseball-related. After all, the Mets are pretty funny.
Unless they're baseball-related. After all, the Mets are pretty funny.
http://economics.about.com
What?! I never signed up to be a beard.
Don't worry dear. I'm hairy enough for both of us. :)
---
I agree with you 100% Mike D on the Piazza thing. I find Primer unreadable because of all the trolls, Piazza and Ackbar posts, etc. I really wish they'd institute a login system.
Mike
What?! I never signed up to be a beard.
Don't worry dear. I'm hairy enough for both of us. :)
---
I agree with you 100% Mike D on the Piazza thing. I find Primer unreadable because of all the trolls, Piazza and Ackbar posts, etc. I really wish they'd institute a login system.
Mike
Mike M,
I've been posting on the official site for longer than Battersbox has been in existence. You can check the archives on the site for my posts. You'll find that there are many on the official site who knee-jerk oppose everything JP does, and many who knee-jerk support everything JP does. I was one of many who were in neither camp- some other posters who gave intelligent reasons for their views were xerone, moqwai01, peiscooter, and for a time, spicol, before he arrived here.
I was very enthusiastically supportive of the acquisition of Cat in 2002, and to my shame, of the acquisition and promotion of Wasdin, for instance. I was opposed to the acquisition of Tam, Creek and Sturtze. As you know, I feel that JP's draft record is excellent, and again if you check the official site, you'll see that my posts promote that view.
As for Coach's assertion that I am disagreeing about BP's preference for Gross over Rios because I am a contrarian, this baffles me. Jordan listed Rios as the #1 prospect and Gross as #5 in his list. My sense was that was the majority view here.
I've been posting on the official site for longer than Battersbox has been in existence. You can check the archives on the site for my posts. You'll find that there are many on the official site who knee-jerk oppose everything JP does, and many who knee-jerk support everything JP does. I was one of many who were in neither camp- some other posters who gave intelligent reasons for their views were xerone, moqwai01, peiscooter, and for a time, spicol, before he arrived here.
I was very enthusiastically supportive of the acquisition of Cat in 2002, and to my shame, of the acquisition and promotion of Wasdin, for instance. I was opposed to the acquisition of Tam, Creek and Sturtze. As you know, I feel that JP's draft record is excellent, and again if you check the official site, you'll see that my posts promote that view.
As for Coach's assertion that I am disagreeing about BP's preference for Gross over Rios because I am a contrarian, this baffles me. Jordan listed Rios as the #1 prospect and Gross as #5 in his list. My sense was that was the majority view here.
Incidentally, Rios is playing RF for the Puerto Rican team.
Baseball America has a nice game summary from yesterday's "electrifying" game!!
Baseball America has a nice game summary from yesterday's "electrifying" game!!
I second mike Green, I've been a reader of his threads at the official site for a long time and he has both insight and passion for this. He forgot to mention aingefan another good poster overthere. i like Rios over all our position players in the minors, and Quiroz is also a great prospect. I do not agree that 99.9% of readers nor the authors would have the same opinion. it has been extensively disscussed here the Yale park and those three hitters in question. Conclusions where that the park does matters and affects the right hander hitters and that age finally worked against Griffin. We all hope that the three guys develop more power and there are many here who would love Rios and Gross as our corner outfielders, for many years...
I do not like reading Coach ousting a poster, and M moffat repeating after him something that is just not true. MG has had several very good post especially regarding minors and authors like jordan had been on the very same side.
Paz!
I do not like reading Coach ousting a poster, and M moffat repeating after him something that is just not true. MG has had several very good post especially regarding minors and authors like jordan had been on the very same side.
Paz!
While I think that Cameron's article was on the whole very good, I don't understand the use of XBH% to measure power. If you use just about any other reasonable metric (HR/AB, Isolated Power, Robert Dudek's Power rating, etc.), Rios and Gross come out almost even in 2003. Using XBH% as a power metric unfairly penalizes Rios for getting more infield hits and line-drive singles than Gross.
I'm not trying to dump on the article, but I did think this point needed to be made.
I'm not trying to dump on the article, but I did think this point needed to be made.
I came across the Rodriguez story, defecting Cuba at 24 , with this credentials: 482 strikeouts in his last 326 innings. WOW!
Wonder if he is heading to NY or if they are soured with Contreras...
Wonder if he is heading to NY or if they are soured with Contreras...
Dear Coach ,
I am a relative newcomer to posting on this board ( started posting in late summer ) and have been lurking since April/03 when I found your site from other ESPN Blue Jay Fan Board Posters. The Posters raved about how good this site is and I agree.
I have been Posting at the Official site for over 2 years and the same for Espn Jay Board. ( Yeah , Big deal ).
I feel though I have to come to the defense of Mike Green. In all my time on the ( nestorfalls) Jays Official Fan Board Mike Green has always been a professional poster. I have disagreed with him on some occasions regarding Jays minor league players but I have found him a hardcore intelligent Jays Fan. This year when xerone,aingefan ,others and myself could not keep up the Jays minor league updates , Mike Green posted updates nearly every day.
I find this Board to be one of the best baseball sites and the Best Jays info website. You have done a great job on with this blog and it is my first stop every day on the net.
I think it would be very boring if we all agreed with each other on Blue Jay matters and I think intelligent disagreement is healthy for this blog.
When it comes to Blue Jay Minor League Players , I would say that Mike Green among others have a excellent knowledge of Blue Jay Minor league players and can debate with anybody the merits , stats , performance of any particular player.
I am a hardcore Blue Jay Fan who has been a subscriber of BA for over 13 years. As , I mentioned in a email to you on Oct 15/03 "Coach someone else mentioned it , could we have a daily blog on Minor Jay topics and updates like the Dominican league ? Mike Green , Peiscooter, xerone and myself ( a little this year and a lot the year before ) among others had a daily minor league update and news at the Jays website . Getting to crazy their now ! Mike Green did a fantastic job with updates !"
Mike Green is a credit to the Jays minor league hardcore fans !
Jeff Geauvreau aka nestorfalls and torontonorth47
I am a relative newcomer to posting on this board ( started posting in late summer ) and have been lurking since April/03 when I found your site from other ESPN Blue Jay Fan Board Posters. The Posters raved about how good this site is and I agree.
I have been Posting at the Official site for over 2 years and the same for Espn Jay Board. ( Yeah , Big deal ).
I feel though I have to come to the defense of Mike Green. In all my time on the ( nestorfalls) Jays Official Fan Board Mike Green has always been a professional poster. I have disagreed with him on some occasions regarding Jays minor league players but I have found him a hardcore intelligent Jays Fan. This year when xerone,aingefan ,others and myself could not keep up the Jays minor league updates , Mike Green posted updates nearly every day.
I find this Board to be one of the best baseball sites and the Best Jays info website. You have done a great job on with this blog and it is my first stop every day on the net.
I think it would be very boring if we all agreed with each other on Blue Jay matters and I think intelligent disagreement is healthy for this blog.
When it comes to Blue Jay Minor League Players , I would say that Mike Green among others have a excellent knowledge of Blue Jay Minor league players and can debate with anybody the merits , stats , performance of any particular player.
I am a hardcore Blue Jay Fan who has been a subscriber of BA for over 13 years. As , I mentioned in a email to you on Oct 15/03 "Coach someone else mentioned it , could we have a daily blog on Minor Jay topics and updates like the Dominican league ? Mike Green , Peiscooter, xerone and myself ( a little this year and a lot the year before ) among others had a daily minor league update and news at the Jays website . Getting to crazy their now ! Mike Green did a fantastic job with updates !"
Mike Green is a credit to the Jays minor league hardcore fans !
Jeff Geauvreau aka nestorfalls and torontonorth47
Back to the article and post script.
I liked to hear the prognostication about Rios fielding abilities.
Having a body like Hidalgo's or Juan Gone's does not fit with your idea of a Cf roaming around, but that much we do not know. Wells is getting pretty strong and still has the grace of a real Cf and projects as a Kirby's clone.
Well, i am still eager to hear more about the fielding abilities of Rios and Gross, and the confirmation that Griffin Of play is really bad ( i mean not even like Shanon or Cat? )
I liked to hear the prognostication about Rios fielding abilities.
Having a body like Hidalgo's or Juan Gone's does not fit with your idea of a Cf roaming around, but that much we do not know. Wells is getting pretty strong and still has the grace of a real Cf and projects as a Kirby's clone.
Well, i am still eager to hear more about the fielding abilities of Rios and Gross, and the confirmation that Griffin Of play is really bad ( i mean not even like Shanon or Cat? )
John Sickels at ESPN had a great article on Rios a while back in October/03.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1638235
Now to the Rios and Gross debate:
I feel that Rios could be very special but that right now Gross is knocking at the door for the Jays.
Gross has though showed a tendency to struggle when promoted from one league to another ( 2001 A to AA Ball , 2002 was a step backward when he went from Prospect to Suspect and 2003 AA to AAA Ball ). This of course is a small sample at Syracuse in 2003 and he improved as the year finished off to have a .264 average .They both have stepped it up this year! Gross has done very well with Team U.S.A. this fall and it will be fun to see how Gross and Rios progress in 2004.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1638235
Now to the Rios and Gross debate:
I feel that Rios could be very special but that right now Gross is knocking at the door for the Jays.
Gross has though showed a tendency to struggle when promoted from one league to another ( 2001 A to AA Ball , 2002 was a step backward when he went from Prospect to Suspect and 2003 AA to AAA Ball ). This of course is a small sample at Syracuse in 2003 and he improved as the year finished off to have a .264 average .They both have stepped it up this year! Gross has done very well with Team U.S.A. this fall and it will be fun to see how Gross and Rios progress in 2004.
I am a Jays fan from Germnay and I have to therefore rely on the net to get infos about the Jays. After finding this great site I only visted the mlb-site in hope Mike Green might post there cause he is by far the most informed poster over there. That he is nitpicking and only negative is just not true. I find it appaling that the coach has to diss the character of a poster when he doesnt have an argument to prove his point. A coach should lead by example not by calling names.
Mike Green: can you really, in all honesty, sit there and claim not to be a contrarian? Let's face it, you like a good argument and you like baiting people into arguments. It insults the intelligence of the rest of the readers of this site when you claim innocence.
Not that I mind this; go ahead and say whatever you feel like. I'm all for differences in opinion and healthy debate. It just gets a little tiresome when everything you have to say is argumentative.
Not that I mind this; go ahead and say whatever you feel like. I'm all for differences in opinion and healthy debate. It just gets a little tiresome when everything you have to say is argumentative.
Let's face it, you like a good argument and you like baiting people into arguments.
My turn. IMHO Mike's writing style is very strong. Mike does not say "Griffins numbers might be inflated because of Yale field." Mike says "Griffins numbers were inflated by Yale Field." If someone disagrees Mike will defend his opinion. Mike B may be correct with his quote, or it could be that Mike G is very opinionated and writes in a way that suggests he knows more than you.
I think the posters here who are looking for updates value Mike G's ability to give them information. The posters here who believe themselves to be knowledgable can be turned off my Mike's style. His style comes across as "I know more than you". I think its the hard core boxers who have this opinion because they don't buy the "I know more than you" line. Remember its IMHO.
My turn. IMHO Mike's writing style is very strong. Mike does not say "Griffins numbers might be inflated because of Yale field." Mike says "Griffins numbers were inflated by Yale Field." If someone disagrees Mike will defend his opinion. Mike B may be correct with his quote, or it could be that Mike G is very opinionated and writes in a way that suggests he knows more than you.
I think the posters here who are looking for updates value Mike G's ability to give them information. The posters here who believe themselves to be knowledgable can be turned off my Mike's style. His style comes across as "I know more than you". I think its the hard core boxers who have this opinion because they don't buy the "I know more than you" line. Remember its IMHO.
A little Devil's Advocacy never hurt anyone, although it has annoyed many. It can't all be hearts and flowers; good can result from adversarial blogging.
Gerry,
My source for the comment on Griffin's and Gross' numbers being inflated by Yale Field was a Jim Callis article in BA in July (shortly before Griffin was injured). Griffin's OPS was about 100 points higher at home. I don't see how a simple statement of fact is adversarial.
The context for my comment was a response to Dave Cameron's view that there was not enough evidence to apply judgments about the park effect of Yale Field on Rios' and Gross' stats.
Nestorfall and others, thank you for the compliments and for remembering aingefan who did fine work on the minor league updates.
My source for the comment on Griffin's and Gross' numbers being inflated by Yale Field was a Jim Callis article in BA in July (shortly before Griffin was injured). Griffin's OPS was about 100 points higher at home. I don't see how a simple statement of fact is adversarial.
The context for my comment was a response to Dave Cameron's view that there was not enough evidence to apply judgments about the park effect of Yale Field on Rios' and Gross' stats.
Nestorfall and others, thank you for the compliments and for remembering aingefan who did fine work on the minor league updates.
As a preface, this thread has interestingly become a turning point in BB's aging process because of the power structure element that is underlaying. I am of the belief that Da Box community should be involved in that growth and as such I'll add the below comments:
I hadn't taken note of Mike Green's habitual disagreement with the mainstream, though upon reflection, I can't disagree with Coach's generalization. Yet I also don't see why this is a bad thing. At worst, Mike is challenging the community to (excuse the pun) think outside the box. Whether he is well intentionned or not is something only Mike Green knows. However, when he does contribute, he tends to post with distinct and clear arguements which provide for engaging debate.
I don't particularly understand (or wish to assume) Coach's intentions with the personalized remarks, but opening this 'issue' in a public forum may not have been the most productive way of approaching this, apparently sensitive, topic.
-Adam
I hadn't taken note of Mike Green's habitual disagreement with the mainstream, though upon reflection, I can't disagree with Coach's generalization. Yet I also don't see why this is a bad thing. At worst, Mike is challenging the community to (excuse the pun) think outside the box. Whether he is well intentionned or not is something only Mike Green knows. However, when he does contribute, he tends to post with distinct and clear arguements which provide for engaging debate.
I don't particularly understand (or wish to assume) Coach's intentions with the personalized remarks, but opening this 'issue' in a public forum may not have been the most productive way of approaching this, apparently sensitive, topic.
-Adam
I apologize for claiming to speak for "99.9% of Box readers and 100% of authors." I should have said "a vast majority."
Adam, though this has become a public forum, it began as my diary and it's still personal. I'm very grateful for all the new friends I've made in the past year because of this site, but if I also rub some people the wrong way, that's how it goes.
Maybe my impatience with Mr. Green is a flaw in my character. I still think his unique brand of analysis and insight deserves its own blog.
Adam, though this has become a public forum, it began as my diary and it's still personal. I'm very grateful for all the new friends I've made in the past year because of this site, but if I also rub some people the wrong way, that's how it goes.
Maybe my impatience with Mr. Green is a flaw in my character. I still think his unique brand of analysis and insight deserves its own blog.
Using XBH% as a power metric unfairly penalizes Rios for getting more infield hits and line-drive singles than Gross.
I believe that XBH% is XBH/AB, not XBH/Hits, so I don't think that it's being impacted by singles.
I believe that XBH% is XBH/AB, not XBH/Hits, so I don't think that it's being impacted by singles.
Pistol,
I'm going to have to stand behind my original point. Alexis Rios had 514 AB for New Haven this year, hitting safely 181 times with 32 doubles, 11 triples, and 11 home runs. His rate stats are:
XBH/AB = 0.11
XBH/H = 0.30
Cameron lists his XBH% as 0.30, so he's evidently using XBH%=XBH/H. Rios' XBH% is indeed being negatively impacted by singles.
Moreover, by Cameron's own logic, if Rios' rate of hitting singles may reasonably be expected to decline (the implication being that he was the beneficiary of a substantial amount of luck this summer), then his XBH% should be expected to rise.
John
I'm going to have to stand behind my original point. Alexis Rios had 514 AB for New Haven this year, hitting safely 181 times with 32 doubles, 11 triples, and 11 home runs. His rate stats are:
XBH/AB = 0.11
XBH/H = 0.30
Cameron lists his XBH% as 0.30, so he's evidently using XBH%=XBH/H. Rios' XBH% is indeed being negatively impacted by singles.
Moreover, by Cameron's own logic, if Rios' rate of hitting singles may reasonably be expected to decline (the implication being that he was the beneficiary of a substantial amount of luck this summer), then his XBH% should be expected to rise.
John
Coach:
Just a thought from someone older than you and that is not lucky enough to be able to go to the Jays games.
You started this snowball and we ( bj fans that come here regularly ) are grateful with you for that.
This blog has grown into a place that cannot belong to any individual and happily neither an institution.
Now is our place.
even if we are not actively into research, authoring, starting threads, etc.
Please sit down with the rest of the staff, and have a good chat about the direction this project should and could have from you, keeping in mind that right now is the best place for BJ related stuff, and that it could be somewhere else if that intervention grows into a manic mode.
Sip a beer on our behalf ( the readers ) and cheers...
Just a thought from someone older than you and that is not lucky enough to be able to go to the Jays games.
You started this snowball and we ( bj fans that come here regularly ) are grateful with you for that.
This blog has grown into a place that cannot belong to any individual and happily neither an institution.
Now is our place.
even if we are not actively into research, authoring, starting threads, etc.
Please sit down with the rest of the staff, and have a good chat about the direction this project should and could have from you, keeping in mind that right now is the best place for BJ related stuff, and that it could be somewhere else if that intervention grows into a manic mode.
Sip a beer on our behalf ( the readers ) and cheers...
I have to commend Mike G, though I frequently disagree with him. Being able to consistently discuss issues courteously with others who don't share your views is not an easy skill, and he has it.
You know I completely agree about welcoming opposing opinions but we should also be mindful about how we write things. As far as I know, Gross is capable of hitting the ball 450 feet when he connects right. So who are we to say that his handful of homeruns at home was because he benefited from a short porch or because he just happened to connect with more meatballs there?
3 months of stats isn't enough to decide that unless we know exactly where all of those homeruns landed and where all of Rios' extra base hits or flyballs landed in relation to a "standard park". How many of those would have been out of any park? How many came from subpar pitchers? We don't have enough info. The stats point to one direction but that direction isn't necessarily the truth. What if New Haven happened to face more lefthanders on the road and righthanders at home? That would be enough to throw things off. So Mike's evidence is fact but it's not (yet) conclusive without play by play info (which Callis may have looked at, I'm not sure).
What we do know is (A) Rios has the best bat control (B) Gross has the best patience (C) Rios' has the highest ceiling if his power and patience continue to grow (D) Griffin has a bit of work to do to catch up to either of the other two but his performance is still adequate and he retains solid hitting tools.
3 months of stats isn't enough to decide that unless we know exactly where all of those homeruns landed and where all of Rios' extra base hits or flyballs landed in relation to a "standard park". How many of those would have been out of any park? How many came from subpar pitchers? We don't have enough info. The stats point to one direction but that direction isn't necessarily the truth. What if New Haven happened to face more lefthanders on the road and righthanders at home? That would be enough to throw things off. So Mike's evidence is fact but it's not (yet) conclusive without play by play info (which Callis may have looked at, I'm not sure).
What we do know is (A) Rios has the best bat control (B) Gross has the best patience (C) Rios' has the highest ceiling if his power and patience continue to grow (D) Griffin has a bit of work to do to catch up to either of the other two but his performance is still adequate and he retains solid hitting tools.
Cameron lists his XBH% as 0.30, so he's evidently using XBH%=XBH/H. Rios' XBH% is indeed being negatively impacted by singles.
Huh. That does seem odd to analyze it that way.
Huh. That does seem odd to analyze it that way.
It's interesting... Cameron's article inadvertently opens my eyes to the possibility of what I previously thought impossible: maybe, just maybe J.P. should try to sell high on Rios before he begins a Mondesi-like slide, happily keeping Jay Buhner instead.
Giving our enthusiasm for him here, Rios has to be one of the most coveted prospects in MLB.
If I weren't just a little skeptical of J.P. and Keith's ability to pick good young pitchers out of a bag--hey everybody's got their weaknesses--I'd think more and more about making the deal to acquire a Kip Wells or two.
If Cameron's writing about it, I'm sure J.P. and Keith are thinking about it.
Giving our enthusiasm for him here, Rios has to be one of the most coveted prospects in MLB.
If I weren't just a little skeptical of J.P. and Keith's ability to pick good young pitchers out of a bag--hey everybody's got their weaknesses--I'd think more and more about making the deal to acquire a Kip Wells or two.
If Cameron's writing about it, I'm sure J.P. and Keith are thinking about it.
If I weren't just a little skeptical of J.P. and Keith's ability to pick good young pitchers out of a bag--hey everybody's got their weaknesses--I'd think more and more about making the deal to acquire a Kip Wells or two.
Well, if Rios turns out to be Mondesi I'd still take him over Kip Wells.
I don't doubt the ability of JP & Co to select pitchers - the draft is a good indication of that - it's just the price you have to pay to acquire good pitching these days makes it tough to get anything done.
Well, if Rios turns out to be Mondesi I'd still take him over Kip Wells.
I don't doubt the ability of JP & Co to select pitchers - the draft is a good indication of that - it's just the price you have to pay to acquire good pitching these days makes it tough to get anything done.