The end-of-season minor-league wrap-ups continue, and today's contestant (thanks to Jonny German!) is an interesting site called On Deck Baseball Prospects. The site rates organizations from top to bottom, which is very unusual: most places don't pay attention to any teams below High-A (here are the league rankings), let alone go into the depths of each organization (I mean, that's more than 200 individual clubs to keep track of). The site also has the right idea about contextualizing the results: players receive bonuses or demerits if they're young or old for the league, account is taken for leagues that are more power-friendly than others, strikeouts for hitters are not punished, and extra points are awarded if the player is close to the majors. All sensible approaches to incorporate into a minor-league review.
However, I think there are still some problems with On Deck's system. For one thing, the tools they've chosen to use are questionable: AB, R(?), H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI(??), BB (no K at all?), and SB (no CS?) for hitters, IP, H, ER, BB, and K (no HR or KBF?) for pitchers. These are very traditional stats to use in an exercise that usually demands more sophistication. For another, the points totals seem arbitrary; I'm not suggesting that they release their formula, but it's hard to know how seriously to take the points totals when you have only the faintest inkling how they were arrived at (e.g., are doubles worth more or less than walks? Are ratios like BB/K and K/IP being used?). To evaluate the evaluation, you need to know more about how the various factors and varaiables are being crunched together. Finally, I have to wonder about the system if it's producing results in the Blue Jays position player rankings like these:
7. Luke Hetherington, Pulaski
10. Gabe Gross, Syracuse
5. Nick Thomas, Pulaski
13. John-Ford Griffin, New Haven
9. Carlo Cota, Auburn
20. Russ Adams, New Haven
15. Yuber Rodriquez, Pulaski
34. Tyrell Godwin, New Haven
And so forth. The rankings, far from favouring players close to the majors, seem to do the opposite. I'm the biggest Vito Chiaravalotti booster out there, but in no way is he the #2 hitting prospect in the organization (and ditto for Robinson Diaz at #1).
Similarly for the pitchers:
3. Vince Perkins, Dunedin
7. David Bush, New Haven
6. Jesse Harper, Dunedin
9. Jason Arnold, Syracuse
I like On Deck's approach and I admire anyone who'll go into this much detail in ranking all of an organization's players. But as someone who's relatively familiar with the Jays system, I can safely say that reality simply isn't according with many of the results produced by the formula. I would encourage On Deck to keep refining their approach and their tools, because the more good information we have about prospects, the better; but right now, it surely needs some work.
However, I think there are still some problems with On Deck's system. For one thing, the tools they've chosen to use are questionable: AB, R(?), H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI(??), BB (no K at all?), and SB (no CS?) for hitters, IP, H, ER, BB, and K (no HR or KBF?) for pitchers. These are very traditional stats to use in an exercise that usually demands more sophistication. For another, the points totals seem arbitrary; I'm not suggesting that they release their formula, but it's hard to know how seriously to take the points totals when you have only the faintest inkling how they were arrived at (e.g., are doubles worth more or less than walks? Are ratios like BB/K and K/IP being used?). To evaluate the evaluation, you need to know more about how the various factors and varaiables are being crunched together. Finally, I have to wonder about the system if it's producing results in the Blue Jays position player rankings like these:
7. Luke Hetherington, Pulaski
10. Gabe Gross, Syracuse
5. Nick Thomas, Pulaski
13. John-Ford Griffin, New Haven
9. Carlo Cota, Auburn
20. Russ Adams, New Haven
15. Yuber Rodriquez, Pulaski
34. Tyrell Godwin, New Haven
And so forth. The rankings, far from favouring players close to the majors, seem to do the opposite. I'm the biggest Vito Chiaravalotti booster out there, but in no way is he the #2 hitting prospect in the organization (and ditto for Robinson Diaz at #1).
Similarly for the pitchers:
3. Vince Perkins, Dunedin
7. David Bush, New Haven
6. Jesse Harper, Dunedin
9. Jason Arnold, Syracuse
I like On Deck's approach and I admire anyone who'll go into this much detail in ranking all of an organization's players. But as someone who's relatively familiar with the Jays system, I can safely say that reality simply isn't according with many of the results produced by the formula. I would encourage On Deck to keep refining their approach and their tools, because the more good information we have about prospects, the better; but right now, it surely needs some work.
