I applaud this move by JP et al.

The Jays get back an affordable Cat, recently cured of his vision problems, for a one-year deal that doesn't appreciably impact the playing time of the Jays' OF prospects. Given that none of them is ready for The Show just yet, this is the best of both worlds for Cat & the organization. Cat gets a good opportunity to play a lot in an environment he likes, while the Jays aren't starting the service time clock for some of their young players who aren't quite ready for the majors. Moreover, Cat can and should be platooned vs. LHP, giving some valuable AB's to Werth, etc.

On balance, I like this move. It's not quite as simple as the decision to bring back Myers and because its for more money its a more important decision.

Last year F-Cat was clearly the second best outfielder for the Jays and was one of their top 4-5 hitters. To be able to bring him back for 2.3 million makes sense. However, I think this clearly suggests that Gross and Werth are unlikely to see Toronto until the trade deadline at the earliest. It's this issue that worries me slightly. Given my view that '04 is going to be something of a "treading water year", I wonder if playing Gross and Werth in '04 to find out what you have, isn't the right move. However, my sense of things is that one of JP's strengths is assessing when young players are ready so I'll leave that call to him. The other issue is whether you should drop the 2.3 million into pitching. While that's my preference, I'm not sure that 2.3 million buys you much more than a slightly sportier model of Tanyon Sturtze.

This is awesome. All of my boys are coming back. JP, I know you read this. Please give me a call. No seriously. Call me. If we can just sign everyone again, we may be able to repeat last year's third place performance again.

BLUE JAYS IN 2008!!!

Considering that Frank Catalanotto = Shannon Stewart, how many MILLIONS of dollars are the Jays going to save over the team that eventually signs Stewart? Three? Four? Five?

http://economics.about.com
Wow! I thought Cat would fetch 3.5-4 million. Great signing by the Jays. The Jays should have a great bench since they'll only play 3 of Wells, Cat, Kielty and Reed Johnson at any given time. A terrific deal, though one that probably means Gross and Werth start the season at AAA.

Does anyone have an updated budget for the Jays?

Mike

Another free agent coming off a successful year, another $100,000 raise. Considering the fine overall season Catalanotto had, it's amazing he re-signed for such a small increase, especially considering his playing time may actually decrease. That, folks, is what a hometown discount and a good organization will get you.

I've said elsewhere that I would give Cat 400 ABs exclusively against righties in 2004, 300 in left field and 100 at DH. If the Jays do that, I think a .310/.380/.480 line is quite reasonable (he's averaged an 870 OPS against RH the last three seasons). So long as he doesn't crowd out (a) Josh Phelps, (b) Bobby Kielty and (c) Gabe Gross, in descending order of importance, he is a tremendously useful player to have around. JP's 2-for-2 in the early going.

Jordan, I think it's almost certain that he will crowd out Gross (otherwise one of Johnson or Keilty will have to go). It's also fairly likely that he will take some AB's from Kielty (not that that is a problem if Keily hits righthanders the way he did this year). To my mind if Phelps is losing AB's to F-Cat or Myers on a semi-regular basis (as he did this year), then we have a big problem.

This is a great deal, though it presents what what John Cerutti called, "a gluttony of outfielders."

If Bobby Kielty or Reed Johnson isn't traded, there is no way for any of the almost-ready AAA guys to get substantial playing time. I've expressed the concern before that Josh Phelps' AB will also get squeezed, as Tosca has frequently tabbed Cat or Crash to DH against righty starters. Is it possible that Phelps is the one on the trading block?

Hey "Cory," you know how some things are funny once, and others are funny all the time? No, I guess you don't.

Bah. Good signing. I was hoping the Rangers could get him back, even with their overabundance of 1B/DH/bad-OF types.

I wonder if we'll be seeing a lot of signings like this (I mean all teams, not just the Jays). With the FA market expected to be glutted with non-tendered players again, players like Cat might be deciding to get what they can now rather than risk settling for less later.

I'm just happy you thought I was funny the first time.

Does anyone have an updated budget for the Jays?

Delgado: $18.5M
Catalanotto: $2.3M
Myers: $0.9M
Hinske: ~ $0.8K
Wells: ~ $0.8K
Woodward: ~ $0.7K
A whole lot of guys: $0.6K or less

More to come, of course: Escobar or his replacement at ~$5M, for starters. But there's the beauty of what the Jays have done: assembled an 86-win-and-counting team with no albatross guaranteed contracts. Three years from now, their biggest outlays will be in the $6-$8M/yr range for cornerstones Halladay, Hinske and Wells, plus any free agents they've brought on board. Pretty cool.

Scott, you took the words right out of my mouth. I can understand F-Cat taking this deal early in the process. Last year the market for "average" outfielders went south pretty quickly (see: Jose Cruz; Reggie Sanders, etc.) and the list of FA outfielders this year is pretty long with some decent talent on it. I think its possible that come February we will look back on this signing and say that it was done at about "market" rates (it would still be a good deal in my books).

Nigel hit it on the head. My concern would be that the signings both of Myers and Cat will take ABs away from Phelps. He needs to get some significant ABs against the righties to see if he can hit them at the ML level. I don't dislike the signings but Tosca seems to fall back to the vets, when it comes time to make up the line-ups.

The other thing that this signing might indicate is a trade of a young OF (i.e. Kielty if I have to hazard a guess).

The other thing about the amount of this signing is that I'm not sure F-Cat was a FA. I think that he was missing a few days of service to be eligible. I think this just avoids the arbitration process (I'm sure the Jays would have tendered him an offer). My guess is that there are now a number of comps out there for "average" outfielders that make arbitration a bit of a crap shoot for both sides in the process (i.e for every Matsui out there with an .775 OPS making 6-7 million you can find a Jose Cruz putting up similar numbers making 1 million).

The other thing about the amount of this signing is that I'm not sure F-Cat was a FA.

No, he wasn't, but avoiding arbitration is key.

Whether you like the moves or not, the speed with which this and the Myers signing were done has to be a good sign for Blue Jays fans. Players have to really want to be here and must respect the front office to sign so quickly.

Spicol, no disputing your point.

My only point was that I think that we should be careful about thinking that the salary number was a masterstroke. As I mentioned above, I like the move.

I doubt Kielty sits very much since his platoon splits in the past haven't been quite as extreme as they were in 2003 and the front office seems to regard him quite highly. Last season the Blue Jays thought he could turn things around, so I expect them to give him every opportunity to do so in 2004.

I think Johnson is going to get squeezed the most here. He'll still get a decent amount of playing time by platooning with Catalanotto or playing when one of the starters is given a day off or suffers an injury, but I doubt he'll get the same number of at-bats he did in 2003. I predict he becomes a fourth-outfielder-plus next season.

Unless there's a trade at some point, Johnson seems to be the one most vulnerable.

Ryan, the situation you described makes sense and I think accurately reflects Johnson's future big league role. I think he's going to make the ideal 4th outfielder. Having said that, Tosca clearly fell in love with Johnson (or the idea of Johnson - the hustling,little ball, dirt on his uniform, player) and I doubt we've seen quite the demise of Johnson you predict.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with Johnson being a 4+ OF, IMHO.

I too am a bit surprised that the increase was so modest but not overly so. If he was good enough to spend $2.2 million on last year then he's certainly good enough this year now showing how well he can hit.

I would be concerned if Myers or Cat took too many turns at DH...but Josh has a chance to be a 40 homer guy with a well above average onbase %. If the Jays are smart they will give him every opportunity to be so, even if it means downgrading left field defence slightly by platooning Cat with Johnson and/or Kielty. More likely Johnson unless off-season conditioning does nothing to improve Kielty's limited strength from the left side.

What this does do is give them Cat as a trading chip once again as Stewart was this year. Gross and Rios will likely play at least half the season at AAA even if they tear the cover off the ball (same as Josh and Orlando did).

This gives them some flexibility to deal either Johnson or Kielty before the season, or Cat and/or one of the others at mid-season, depending on how ready Gross and Rios prove themselves to be.

I'll say this...to get both Cat and Myers back at just $250K more is a huge accomplishment. Now if Halladay can be brought under contract for around his expected price then the Jays still have a good $12 million or so to spend on free agents.

No problem ... Kielty plays first after Delgado is traded to the Dodgers, right?

Catalanotto has played some secondbase in the past. I wonder how the O-Dawg would feel about Shortstop?

What a team---we have a dog, cat and pimp!

Blue Jays rule!

I disagree completely with this signing. I like Cat, and I think he's a fine hitter, and worth 2.3 million or more to some team. It just shouldn't be the Blue Jays.

At this point in their careers, Rios and Gross are already better outfielders (slightly better offensively and significantly better defensively) than Cat. Kielty is a fine player, Vernon is great, and Reed Johnson is a terrific 4th outfielder at worst. Why in the world would you want to spend 2.3 million on another outfielder even if he's worth that money?

If the Blue Jays had the Yankees' budget, this would be a brilliant signing. As it stands, this signing will stand in the way of the acquisition of the talent that the team truly needs. The only circumstance in which it makes sense is if the Jays have some blockbuster deal on the front burner involving Josh Phelps, and Cat is going to be their full-time DH in 2004.

Catalanotto was asked about playing second base during a Blue Jay-a-Day interview and sounded less-than-enthusiastic about playing second base. He didn't rule it out, but it's something he'd need to prepare for.

Back to the current outfield situation for a moment, I personally like having a little extra depth. Catalanotto is still an injury risk, and both Delgado and Phelps have issues with their knees. Even if he's reduced to a 4th+ outfielder role, Johnson will still going to get in the lineup frequently.

Jordan has the contracts situation down, and I'm going to be keeping a spreadsheet from here on out to keep track of the contract situation.

The Jays have six guys on guarantees, for a total of $23.9 million committed... the six Jordan mentioned above (Delgado, Cat, Myers, Berg, Wells, and Hinske).

In addition to those three, three other players (Halladay, Politte, and Woodward) are certainly arb-eligible. Halladay's salary will skyrocket, but hopefully he will be signed longterm over the winter anyway.

Politte isn't likely due for any raises. Woodward will probably get one after being a starter.

There are a couple of possible arb-eligibles, who I just don't knoe about. Bobby Kielty is a possible (but very unlikely) super-two. Trever Miller might be a super-two as well; I'm pretty sure he's under three years' service time. Pete Walker might be as well, but again he sure doesn't have three years' service time.

Everyone else on the roster is going to be making less than $500,000. The 2004 minimum salary is going to be $300,000 again, and most of the Jays will be within $50,000 of that minimum.

Anyway, if you pencil in a very pessimistic $2 million for Woodward and Politte, and an average of $350,000 (on the high side) for 16 other guys, that's $7.6 million to add to the $23.9 million. Assuming the budget is the much-trumpeted $50 million, that leaves $18.5 million now, with which the following things must be done:

-Pay Roy Halladay
-Replace Mike Bordick (unless you replace Bordick with Berg and Berg with Howie Clark)
-Sign your free-agent pitching - starters, relievers, what have you.

I think that's a very reasonable goal with $18.5 million.

I disagree completely with this signing.

Of course you do.

At this point in their careers, Rios and Gross are already better outfielders

Rios has yet to play a game above AA. Gross is nearly as inexperienced. They may be better than Frank, and as soon as next year, but to suggest that both are obviously ready to play in the majors in 2004 is overstating things. It's a one year deal for a reason.

With Cat's back, a one-year deal is enough. The signing is OK as long as Reed Johnson's playing time isnt diminished too much.

Also, Cat cannot play second base well and he is a lousy first baseman.

Mike G...not bringing back Cat makes sense if you think spending that $2.3 million differently will make the difference between making the playoffs or not.

The Jays owned Cat's rights and unlike Cruz he agreed to a modest contract and didn't force arbitration. Not only does Myers and Cat coming back insure important insurance but it also means Halladay sees that the Jays are commited to keeping people who contribute.

And that's even ignoring the fact that Gross and Rios will spend half of 2004 in AAA anyway and will only be candidates for promotion if they tear the cover off the ball. In that case, Cat becomes a significant tradeable commodity mid-season.

More importantly, unless Gross hits major league pitching right off the bat, without Cat the outfield production against righthanded pitching would be ghastly. Reed Johnson (.274/.348/.383) and Bobby Kielty (.216/.328/.328) are your starting corner outfielders? I don't think so, although I'm more confident Kielty can improve that split next year.

That $2.3 million could buy a decent reliever or even two but I think you vastly underestimate the hit the corner outfield offence would take without a solid lefthanded bat.

What a team---we have a dog, cat and pimp!

Two cats actually.

Quick hijack: Gross made the final roster for Team USA. The qualifying round begins Friday in Panama--I wonder if the games are on the internet anywhere.

Anybody else think the Jays should make a run at Billy Wagner, assuming he could be had in the $6-$8 million range? Yes, that is a ton to pay for a relief pitcher, but if it's one thing the Jays need more than Coach to step into the front office, it's an ace reliever. Billy Beane has not been shy about paying big money for closers -- Foulke and Koch, for example -- and though J.P. should not be expected to do everything his mentor did, perhaps this is one area where he should take a look. There is ample evidence to suggest that closers are made, not born, but there is also evidence to suggest that a "proven closer" is a valuable commodity worth investing in. The Jays have the prospects to trade -- especially hitters, something the Astros like to collect but not play (see Lane, Jason, and Ensberg, Morgan) -- to the Astros, and they do have some salary room.

But that is shrinking. I like the Myers signing, but, with more immediate needs, Catalanatto is a luxury the Jays perhaps can't afford. No doubt he's worth the money, as Mike Green indicates, but I wonder how much worse any of the cabal of outfielders the Jays have in the minors would be.

I stand corrected, Ground Chuck!

I like F-Cat, as a player and a person (great for a clubhouse) so I'm glad he was re-signed and the price is a bargan. Where I see this becoming most relevant is that Johnson, Kielty or Cat could easily come out this year and blow chunks from April through June. On the other hand we could have four brilliant outfielders but regardless, the team is presented two fairly attractive possibilities. First scenario, one of the four loses their job and we send up Gross or Werth for a real shot sometime around midseason, after they've settled into AAA (who ever's having the better season gets the call). Or, in the second scenario, we have four strong outfielders who cost peanuts that would look attractive to many fringe contenders searching for a slight upgrade. Either way, Gabe or Jayson get their opportunity to win a spot with the big club...those boys need to prove whether or not they're the real deal this season or else AAA will no longer be productive (not suggesting that if they don't hit with astronomic numbers they get cut; they just need show the expected progress at a higher level).

At this point in their careers, Rios and Gross are already better outfielders.

Mike, I fully disagree with you here. Consider the EqA and ML-equivalent EqAs for these three guys in 2003:

Cat------>.279
Rios----->.255
Gross---->.254

Now, EqA isn't the end-all of stats, but it serves as a very handy way to compare offensive production across different levels. And by any definition, Cat is way ahead of the two young studs at this point. I'm not even sure I'd give the prospects the defensive edge: while there's no doubting their tools, there's also a substantial adjustment period in the majors, getting used to the corners in Fenway and the gaps in Safeco. Over a full season, I might give Gross or Rios the edge, but only barely. Gabe has only 100 ABs at Triple-A, and Lexi has spent only one year above A-Ball. They are simply not ready to be thrown to the lions -- not when there are cost-effective and productive alternatives like Catalanotto.

It's quite possible that Cat will be in Toronto only until the trading deadline, when he can be moved for bright shiny objects and either Gross or Werth can come up to fill his roster spot. Cat, Kielty and Johnson can all get 400 ABs next year without any difficulty, while still giving Phelps 500 ABs at DH, which we all agree he absolutely needs. Injuries, ineffectiveness and hot streaks will cause those numbers to rise or fall, and that's fine too. Gross should certainly be ready by the end of July, which makes a Cat deal all the more likely.

Finally, don't overestimate the importance of a veteran bat on a young team like this. Outside of Frank, the only guys in this lineup with more than 1,500 major-league ABs are Myers and Delgado. That's pretty stunning, when you think about it:

Phelps: 674 AB
Hudson: 666 AB
Woodward: 854 AB
Wells: 1,472 AB
Hinske: 1,105 AB
Kielty: 820 AB
Johnson: 412 AB
Cash: 120 AB

Young hitters slump, struggle, adjust and fight their way through a variety of learning curves; a lineup full of young hitters, no matter how talented, is going to have numerous stretches where they score just 1 or 2 runs a game. You need the veteran guys in there to steady everyone down, give advice, show how to minimize the length of slumps and adjust more quickly. Carlos can't do all that himself; Cat is needed on the bench between innings as much as he's needed at the plate 400 times a year. He'll be an important part of this team next season.

http://economics.about.com
Gross has 182 career AAA at bats. Rios has *none*.

It seems a little presumptious to give them starting jobs out of spring training. Particularly when it means starting their arbitration clocks up earlier than necessary.

The player who is most hurt by this signing is Jayson Werth. Given his poor 2003, he certainly won't make the team out of camp. Reed Johnson is a useful player, but I see him as the Benny Ayala to Cat's John Lowenstein and Kielty's Gary Roenicke.

Mike

We can bring back Lou Thornton and Ron Shepherd as backup outfielders!

Whatcha think???

JP has already said he won't be spending $6 million on a proven closer. I think he's much more likely to take a BoSox type approach and bring in 3 or 4 pitchers with experience for that price.

Although after what I witnessed at times this year, I would consider spending a bit more to get a more bankable relief ace. If for instance the Astros agree to pay a sizeable part of Wagner's salary, which is $8 million in 2004, $9 million with a $1 million buyout in 2005, then I think about it. But it's very likely going to cost you Alexis Rios or Dustin McGowan to bring in a name that big. Heck, the Brewers asked for Rios for Ben Sheets.

I think the Jays should sign or trade for two or three starters with about $8 million of their discretionary fund and two or three relievers with the remaining $4 million or so. Now hopefully the targets will be someone with a far better track record than the likes of Tanyon Sturtze and Doug Creek.

Anybody else think the Jays should make a run at Billy Wagner, assuming he could be had in the $6-$8 million range?

Mick, only on a one-year deal, which I doubt he'd accept; the Jays have enough fast-track relief candidates in the system that they can fill the role in-house by April '05. And Wagner's made $8M each of the last two years; after maybe his best season ever, I can't see him going anywhere for less than $9M a year, which some team definitely will pay. I'd love to see him coming out of the Jays' pen, but I don't think he'll be close to affordable.

Whatcha think???

coliver, I think you should stay indoors and play soothing music until the drugs wear off.

Catalanotto has played some secondbase in the past.

He was younger, and didn't have a bad back. He's most comfortable in left field, where he did make a few spectacular plays.

What this does do is give them Cat as a trading chip once again as Stewart was this year.

For sure, R Billie, if they aren't in the race. With the vision problem solved, Frank could be a .320 hitter again. Moving him at the deadline lets them wait on promoting Gross, who may not have a higher upside than Rios but is probably closer to being ready. Werth, if he starts hitting, could still surprise. It should be a healthy competition in AAA for the first promotion.

Kielty plays first after Delgado is traded to the Dodgers, right?

Mick, you're such a kidder. Even if Carlos waives his no-trade a couple of months short of free agency, and L.A. is where he wants to go, Kielty should stay in the outfield. Phelps has waited a long time, like a few other sluggers before him, and deserves his turn at first.

E-Jordan: I thought Wagner was a free agent. Disregard my post.

Jordan, I once confused you with Coach, which is indeed a compliment. However, you confusing with me that bearded fellow from Texas -- also known as "Mick" -- is a down-and-out calumnation. If I had a glove, and if you were within glove shot, I'd challenge you to a duel.

Argh. It must have been the Texas-based subject matter. I'm going home now and staying away from sharp things with Internet connections.

The player who is most hurt by this signing is Jayson Werth. Given his poor 2003, he certainly won't make the team out of camp. Reed Johnson is a useful player, but I see him as the Benny Ayala to Cat's John Lowenstein and Kielty's Gary Roenicke.


I'm probably the biggest Werth apologist on Da Box, and even I find myself liking the Catalanotto signing. Werth did _nothing_ in 2003 to indicate he's ready for a full or part-time role on the Jays. Had he posted a .300/.400/.500 line at Syracuse, I would be howling for the Jays to promote him. Instead, only managed a .237/.285/.441.

There's some power potential there, but Werth has to show some consistency before he'll be given a shot on the big club.

BTW, if the Jays do end up with an embarrassment riches in the 2004 Syracuse outfield, it gives them a lot of flexibility at the trading deadline.

Good idea Coach, but now I will be serious:

Wagner would be great, but there is no way that J.P will pay the bucks for a closer. Remember MONEYBALL, the philosophy is that closers are overvalued.

Mick, you're such a kidder. Even if Carlos waives his no-trade a couple of months short of free agency, and L.A. is where he wants to go, Kielty should stay in the outfield. Phelps has waited a long time, like a few other sluggers before him, and deserves his turn at first.


If the Jays intend to use Phelps at 1B eventually, then maybe they ought to give him more than _8_ games there in 2004. Unless he was injured and unable to play, he should have gotten at least 40-50 games at 1B in 2003...

The Jays have six guys on guarantees, for a total of $23.9 million committed... the six Jordan mentioned above (Delgado, Cat, Myers, Berg, Wells, and Hinske).

Craig, do you know for sure what Berg's contract calls for next year? I've got a spreadsheet of my own and I haven't been able to confirm whether Dave is due $700K or $800K.

Count me in as a supporter of this deal and a believer that there's a positive message attached to both the expediency and the fact that it's a guy who buys into Toronto in every way. It does look like the at-bats are going to be spread a little thin, but I don't see Kielty or Johnson being dealt - the return just wouldn't be good enough at this point. I think one of the three - Cat, Kielty, Johnson - is gone at the trade deadline next year to make room for Gross.

Werth-Rios-Gross in Syracuse. How many teams would trade their major league outfield for that?

The AAA outfield situation is really interesting to me. There seems to be four candidates: Rios, Gross, Werth and Griffin. Given that Griffin isn't the best defender of the group, I'd wager that if he was promoted to AAA, he would be the DH, which in turn would move Pond to 3B. Perhaps with Griffin's late season injury, he might stay in Manchester for a month or two while the rest of the bunch fight for "first promotion" as Coach put it.

My guess: Werth is traded at some point during this wacky off-season and Griffin roams LF in Syracuse.

http://economics.about.com
Syracuse looks to have a starting outfield of Werth-Rios-Gross. WBut where does that leave Griffin? Does he stay in AA, or does he go to AAA to play DH/1B and backup OF?

So I guess Colangelo, Ryan, and Aven won't be returning.

The 2004 Skychiefs team looks like it could be pretty stacked, with those 3 outfielders, Griffin at 1B or DH, Sequea at 2B, Pond at 3B, and Q catching.

Mike

Ha! Mike, I beat you to it.

http://economics.about.com
Jeez, Brent, you beat me to it. I must be getting old.

Mike

A-HA!!!

You have to be careful not to overestimate Werth-Rios-Gross in Syracuse. I was joking about Shepherd and Thornton eariler, but remember how Ducey, Thornton, Campusano, and Hill were considered sure bets as major leaguers when they were in Syracuse.

That was my whole point-be very careful!

http://economics.about.com
OKAY, THAT'S TWICE IN A ROW. THAT'S SERIOUSLY NOT FUNNY!

Okay, yes it is. :)

If you're into hockey, we should watch a game at the Spoke sometime. (I can't for the next couple weeks, though). You know how to reach me.

Cheers,

Mike

Griffin is probably going to spend a lot of time next year learning to play first base. He should still spend some time in left field to make sure he doesn't forget how to play it but his likely position in the majors is LF/1B/DH. Now if he can bump his average closer to what was expected of him and maintain his power then he hits enough to be at least the lefty half of a 1B/DH platoon.

I'd want all four of Rios, Gross, Griffin, and Werth getting regular at bats in AAA. Especially Werth...I don't believe he just fell off the map hitting wise. He still has standout potential.

Jonny, I'm assuming it's $700,000; it could just as easily be $800,000. Terms were never disclosed.

Perhaps with Griffin's late season injury, he might stay in Manchester for a month or two...

That makes perfect sense, and it's a good time to start using JF more at first base. Truth is, the outfield competition will be from the first day of spring training. Reed Johnson will be going all-out (he knows no other way) to keep his job, and a lot of talented kids will be trying to take it. I'd guess that the pecking order is Gross-Werth-Rios-Griffin right now, but it can certainly change in Florida. The idea that not all of them will reach their potential is valid, but just like with the pitchers, the odds are very good that some of them will.

This is a fine start to the offseason. Two talented free agents don't even bother to test the waters, they sign up with the Fighting Jays at the earliest opportunity for reasonable salaries. Both Myers and Catalanotto could be packaged in July if the Jays are out of contention, but as veterans, they will be especially valuable if the team does surprise. When they don't start, they're great pinch-hitting options.

Reed-Wells-Kielty against lefty pitching and Cat-Wells-Kielty/Reed against righties is a very solid outfield. To me, the battle for playing time may be decided by whether Kielty, who has vowed to return bigger and stronger, rediscovers his stroke from the left side. If he does, Josh Phelps will have to earn every at-bat; Tosca will always be tempted to play Reed-Wells-Kielty (his best defensive OF) and use Cat at DH against righties.

This Plan will come to fruition. Delgado to either the Cubs, Angels or Dodgers for two prospect pitchers and one other prospect. Jays' pick up 5-9 million of contract. Reed Johnson and Woodward to someone for a decent reliever prospect that is undervalued at present. Matsui the miniature for 5-7 million per. Kelvim signed at 5 or 6. Halladay signed at 9-11 per year (7-8 is a ridiculous thought, he is BETTER than Colon and will be paid comparably) See if you can parlay one of the prospect pitchers and Kielty for Lilly. If not just get another starter at 5 or 6 maybe do that anyways. Offense will decrease some. Pitching should be significantly better. If you are on pace to win 88 games or so come July add a strong pitcher or OF and hope the Yanks or Sox are having a bad year. I see a Matsui the miniature dynasty brewing.

http://economics.about.com
Can someone create a site FAQ, that has as the first question "Can Delago be traded?" It seems like it'd be useful.

Mike

Jordan, I'm sorry but I don't buy the mlEqa in Rios' case. A very poor translation has been done. You will note how far it is from Sickels' numbers. This does not account at all for right/left park differentials in New Haven.

In a previous post, you indicated that you would forgo signing Cat and give Gross 400 ABs if it was necessary to sign the pitching that you wanted (Escobar, Ohka and Batista). What changed? Do you believe that the Jays can re-sign Halladay long-term plus pay for these three pitchers with the 18.5 million left?

I was ecstatic about the signing of Cat last year, and said so on the official site. This time, it just does not make sense.

Gitz, when you write (after your drunken stupor-induced rips at me) "If I had a glove ..." are you pretty much owning up to why Cirillo beat you out at USC? No leather?

And since we're speculatin' on the little righty from Houston who throws darts in the ninth, I've sort of assumed all along that Wagner would end up in Boston. Williamson follows Lowe into the rotation. Kim is traded to, uh, probably Seibu or Chiba Lotte. Timlin sets up Wagner. And the "see, you really do need a closer!" faction in Boston gets to celebrate.

And since we're speculatin' on the little righty from Houston who throws darts in the ninth, I've sort of assumed all along that Wagner would end up in Boston. Williamson follows Lowe into the rotation. Kim is traded to, uh, probably Seibu or Chiba Lotte. Timlin sets up Wagner. And the "see, you really do need a closer!" faction in Boston gets to celebrate.


That should be "little lefty".

Jordan, I'm sorry but I don't buy the mlEqa in Rios' case. A very poor translation has been done.

Why - because you don't agree with it?

Logan,

Sickels has Rios' MLE at .310/.360/.460, which is modestly better than Cat's figures. Here's the link: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1638235.

Rios went .352/.402/.520 in a double A pitcher's league in a ballpark that's real tough on righties (both he and Quiroz had much higher OPS on the road).

I'm not saying that Rios should be immediately installed as the Jay centerfielder or leftfielder; I would start him in Syracuse. I am saying that right now, he is a better ballplayer than Cat, and that the last thing the Jays need is another outfielder blocking his way for more than about 2 months, and worse yet taking ABs away from Phelps and dollars away from pitching talent.

Hitting prospects are much different than pitching prospects. Dominating double A, like Cabrera and Teixeira and Rios did, usually means the hitter is ready or very close to it.

What a dumb move ... simply idiotic if we don't trade one of outfielders for pitching.

Signing an outfielder is like eskimos buying ice. Completely pointless unless a trade of an outfielder for a pitcher is made. All you who think cat is valuable are right ... but he is simply superfluous. Kielty, Johnson, Werth, and to a lesser degree gross could fill his spot. And think about the jays signing a sturtze equivalent when this money could be used (with a bit extra) to lure batista here.

If we give jp some credit, and assume he did some thinking about this given that he has "a very rigid budget", I guess an outfielder is about to be traded for pitching. Since this signing wouldn't be necessary if we traded one of our prospects (like rios) I guess this means kielty or johnson are on the bus out of town.

Let's assume for a moment Halladay makes about $7 million in the first year of a slightly backloaded deal. That's around what he can expect to earn in arbitration...possibly a bit more. The remainder of his years might be worth $8/$9/$11 million.

Halladay signed at 9-11 per year (7-8 is a ridiculous thought, he is BETTER than Colon and will be paid comparably)

You're making the mistake of comparing an unrestricted free agent to a guy who won't have that status for another 2 years. Halladay might earn up to $8 million from arbitration this year, maybe $11 million the following year. Then the sky would be the limit once free agency hits.

However, if the Jays offered a four year contract then Halladay would accept less per year money because of the security of a four year deal. Don't underestimate this...as good as Doc is even minor injuries can errode a pitcher's performance.

Let's assume Halladay earns $6.5 million in the first year of a backloaded deal. That's probably less than he'd get in arbitration but arbitration doesn't give him the security of another 3 years under contract right away. The following years he earns $8 million, $9 million, $10.5 million. That's a commitment of $34 million or an $8.5 million per year average.

Call me crazy but I think that would be hard for Doc to pass up considering he's said he likes Toronto, buys into the plan, and wants to be part of a winning team here. He could wait two years and earn more through arbitration and possibly a lot more through free agency if he continues to win 20 games. But that's not the same as having a contract in your hand right now guaranteeing you scads of cash. No-one else but the Jays have the right to make him any kind of offers for the next two years; so the Bartolo Colon comparison doesn't apply.

In a previous post, you indicated that you would forgo signing Cat and give Gross 400 ABs if it was necessary to sign the pitching that you wanted (Escobar, Ohka and Batista). What changed?

Nothing, really, Mike. As you say, I advocated against Cat's return only if he stood between the Jays and a good pitching staff. There's been no indication that these three guys are even going to be available, so we can't say that the money shouldn't be spent on Cat if we don't yet know what the money can be spent on. My hypothesis assumed that I could deal with pitching first and Cat later; in reality, though, Frank had to be dealt with first. If you want a guy to give you a hometown discount, you can't leave him on the line for a few months till you get the rest of your budget spent. So signing the pitchers first and Cat later, as I imagined, wasn't feasible, and that affects how you deal with the money. That said:

Do you believe that the Jays can re-sign Halladay long-term plus pay for these three pitchers with the 18.5 million left?

They're not far off. My sense is that Roy can probably be brought into the fold for 4 years at $32M; that's a reasonable compromise among his value, the security of a guaranteed deal, and the fact that if you want to play in Toronto, you need to accept a little less than market value. That $8M estimate could be wrong, but I don't think it's completely off the wall. Now you've got $10.5M. Set aside $5.5M of that for Escobar or a replacement starter (I don't really have a sense yet of who that might be). Now there's $5M left. I suggested in the GM thread that Batista would cost $4M, and I stand by that. That leaves a million left over. I had originally envisioned acquiring Ohka, who made peanuts last year, but I hadn't realized he was arb-eligible, and that would likely place his salary outside the Jays' orbit. So I'd probably revert to my original suggestion of John Thomson. He made $1.3M last year and I guessed, if he could be gotten, that he might command $2M per. If it's that close, maybe you backload Roy's contract a little to make it work. If not, then you slide a Towers or someone into the fourth spot and hold your breath. Even without Ohka or Thomson, a Halladay-Escobar-Bastista top three would be a vast improvement on 2003.

This isn't my recommended blueprint going forward, necessarily -- I only play a GM in these threads -- just an example of how a much-improved pitching staff can still be assembled following Cat's return. I hope I'm not coming across as disingenuous; I stand by my assertion that if Cat was all that kept me from a solid pitching staff, I could live with Gross in Toronto this season. But I didn't think Cat would return for such a small raise, I accept that he needed to be dealt with first, and in the end I have to think JP knows the market and his budget better than I do.

Cat is on the Fan. The announcers asked him why he signed for only $100k more. He said he understood the Jays did not have a lot of money for him, so he either could take the offer or take his chances as a free agent. It sounds like the Jays would not offer arbitration to him.

He really wants to be in Toronto. He likes the team, and he thinks JP is making all the right moves. He knows the Jays are allocating their dollars to pitching.

He is very encouraged by the playoffs. He said that the last two seasons have shown that if a good group of players get together and play well they can win without having a big budget.

As the announcers said, its great to have a player who wants to be here, and who takes less money to do it.

Trever Miller does in fact have three years service time (3.095 to be precise). Not that this is a great big deal or nothing...

Billy Wagner is due 8 million next year and either 9 million for 2005 or a 3 million buyout. In other words, the Jays can pay Wagner 11 million for one year or 17 million for 2 years.

No chance of the Jays acquiring him unless the Astros pick up a lot of the contract.

Thanks, Magpie.

If you can provide a source for major leaguers' service time, I will be forever in your debt.

So Miller is also arb-eligible, meaning he will get a raise from his current $325,000... that might double.

So, Mike G, why are Sickels' numbers OK but the EqA numbers aren't? Because Sickels' jibe with your own opinions?

Leaving aside the question of service time (why start Rios' clock early?), you're oversimplifying on whether Rios is even ready. You mentioned a few hitters who jumped from AA to the majors successfully, but anecdotes are not data. After all, Hank Blalock dominated AA in 2001, and flopped in a brief trial in the majors to start 2002. It goes both ways.

The Eastern League isn't a pitcher's league.

Gitz, when you write (after your drunken stupor-induced rips at me) "If I had a glove ..." are you pretty much owning up to why Cirillo beat you out at USC? No leather?

My glove was, and is, quite solid. My throws were, and are, quite erratic. Jeff Cirillo was, but is no longer, better than me.

And at any rate Cirillo played second at USC when I tried out; third base was manned by a stiff named Kevin Farlow, and I assure you I WAS better than him. Since Bret Boone was at second, and since Cirillo could really hit but was not a great fielder in college, most of the time he DH'd, since coach Gillespie loved Farlow's glove at third. Farlow certainly didn't play because of his stick.

Thanks for the contract info on Wagner, Robert. You're right: Houston would have to take at least $7 million of that, and I'm not sure Gabe Gross and John-Ford Griffin is quite worth that, especially when Houston would be trading Wagner to, presumably, save money.

Robert: If Gomez and Jose Hernandez have the same price tag (and it's under $1M), which one do you sign?

I like Cat, but I personally would have allocated that money towards pitching.

Even if Gross, Werth and Rios aren't ready for the Big Show the Jays could live with Kielty, Johnson, and Wells in the OF until the AS break (or all season if necessary). I think the difference between Kielty or Johnson and Cat isn't as large as the difference between a $2.3 million reliever (or 2 relievers) and who will be in the pen now that Cat is on the team again.

So what this signing might be telling us indirectly (but not necessarily all points):

1. Gross, Werth and Rios all won't be ready for the majors in April
2. The Jays think they can find a couple bargain relievers that can contribute next year
3. The Jays may have a good indication that they can trade one of the OFs for help in other areas
4. The Jays aren't sold on Kielty as a full time OF

Robert,

Team ERAs in the Eastern League run from 3.1 to 4.7. By the standards of 2003, that's a pitcher's league, moderately so I will grant you. For comparison, team ERAs in the AL in 2003 run from 3.6 to 5.7 and in the NL from 3.2 to 5.2.

Count me in as a supporter of this deal and a believer that there's a positive message attached to both the expediency and the fact that it's a guy who buys into Toronto in every way.

This was the signpost I was looking for -- another guy who wants to stay in Toronto because he believes that the team is going in the right direction.

I think that this is tremendously important: I am certain that at least a few Cubs and Red Sox players were convinced that the Curses would hold and that they wouldn't make it to the World Series, and as a hardcore believer in the power of positive thinking, I am also certain that they, at least to some extent, sabotaged their own chances by thinking that way.

If your team is on board and believes, that is a lot of power.

Plus, I love the Cat. When the Deacon referred to him as a fan favourite this morning during the little highlights summary on The Fan, I said "Damn right" out loud. Standing on the subway platform. Listening on headphones. With a hundred people looking at me like I'm a freak.

http://economics.about.com
Plus, I love the Cat. When the Deacon referred to him as a fan favourite this morning during the little highlights summary on The Fan, I said "Damn right" out loud. Standing on the subway platform. Listening on headphones. With a hundred people looking at me like I'm a freak.

They were staring at you before you said anything. It's the orange shoes.

Mike

Those shoes make me a lot of friends. And they're comfy, too.

If your team is on board and *believes*, that is a lot of power.

Aaron, you are completely right about the power of a group of people pulling in the same direction. By the way, TTC riders aren't the only people who think you're a freak, and I mean that in the nicest possible way. If the Jays had a hundred more fans like you, the Dome would rock.

Check out Spencer Fordin's report on Cat's signing from the Official Site:

The outfielder said that watching an unheralded team like the Florida Marlins go all the way to glory has pumped him up about next season.

Last year was his first run with a winning team, which only succeeded in whetting his appetite. Catalanotto said he doesn't see any reason why the Jays can't pick up where the Anaheim Angels and Marlins left off. More to the point, he said he's never been in a more fun-filled clubhouse. Those reasons -- and several others -- explain why coming back to Toronto was his best-case scenario.

Frank also noted that most players on the open market last year settled for less than they thought they were worth, and a lot of talented guys were non-tendered.

"If I would've gone to arbitration, there's no doubt I would've done better monetarily. But I don't know whether I would've made it to arbitration," he said. "[That's] a lot of money. I'm not going to complain about it. I'm just happy to be back with the Jays."

"If I would've gone to arbitration, there's no doubt I would've done better monetarily. But I don't know whether I would've made it to arbitration,"

It amuses me that arbitration, which is supposed to be in place to determine fair market value, seemingly always ends up being in excess of what a player would make as an UFA.

It'll be interesting to see how long it takes for the 2 to come back in line.

It amuses me that arbitration, which is supposed to be in place to determine fair market value, seemingly always ends up being in excess of what a player would make as an UFA.

I think Cat meant that arbitration would have helped him do better than this deal, and he's probably right.

Whether he would do better or not as a UFA, I think he'd do better as a UFA except for the compensation issue, as he would likely be a Type B at least.

If the Jays had a hundred more fans like you, the Dome would rock.

Heh, thanks. Last night I lent the old Cheer Club pipes to one of my wife's hockey games. Seeing as how it was an away game and I was the only fan travelling with her team, I got a similar reception from the crowd to the one I usually get at SkyDome. ;)

Got a call this morning from the Jays sales force -- the Season's Pass is available again for next year, apparently in limited quantities, and with a pair of upgrades:

1) you can sit anywhere in the SkyDeck, not just above row 11 (the guy said there were some complaints about overzealous ushers guarding rows of empty, unsold seats)

2) opening day tickets will be mailed out to Season's Pass holders a month in advance to avoid the chaos of this year's opening day.

I think Cat meant that arbitration would have helped him do better than this deal, and he's probably right.

Whether he would do better or not as a UFA, I think he'd do better as a UFA except for the compensation issue, as he would likely be a Type B at least.

But Cat, from what I read, didn't know if he would be offered arbitration. If he did get arbitration offered he would have a larger contract.

However, if he wasn't offered arbitration, like he wasn't offered last year, he wasn't likely to make as much as arbitration would have awarded him (apparently in the $3-3.5 million range).

http://economics.about.com
Got a call this morning from the Jays sales force -- the Season's Pass is available again for next year, apparently in limited quantities

Hannah and I are *so* going to buy them.. even if we can only make a couple dozen games next year. The Cheer Club needs someone who knows how to count to 3. :)

The 2004 pass is available here:

Toronto Star Season Pass.

Mike

About 70 posts ago Leigh mentioned Cat has played 2nd and wondered if Orlando could handle SS - now while I agree that Cat should stay the OF - the second part of the question is interesting - a platoon system where Orlando and Howie Clark are the double play combo against righties and Woodward and Berg take their spots against lefties could be higly productive - the only problem would be that either Howie or Orlando would have to play SS against righties - I don't think Howie could do it - but Orlando seems to have the capabilites

The Cheer Club needs someone who knows how to count to 3

HOW AN ECONOMIST COUNTS TO 3

0
n+1
$44,000,000
sum(n, t=1) C(sub t) / (1 + i)^t
B + (1/x)(R-B)
Turn to subsection 4.7.17
P1 = 1000
6.81%
For every n such that n<1000
0.00829
theta
SN(d1) - (Ke^-rT)N(d1-s(SQRT(t)))
C + I + G + X
105.0
R1, R2, R3, R4
equilibrium
3

Switching a middle infielder from 2B to SS usually has a negative effect on an infielder. Hudson, a good second baseman although prone to occasional throwing lapses, would only be hurt using this system. It is an entirely different throw. Manny Lee was the only Jays inflelder over the years to move back and forth effectively and I even think it affected him. Lee developed into a much better second baseman than he ever developed as a shortstop.

What can we say about Howie Clark. He did everything Tosca asked of him during the year. He is not, by any means, a shortstop, but he deserves a spot on the 2004 roster. He strikes me as someone you would like to keep in the organization--good role player, decent stick, and one who would make a fine coach in the future.

http://economics.about.com
HOW AN ECONOMIST COUNTS TO 3

Dude, that is so inaccurate.

Here's how an microeconomist counts to 3.

Conjecture:
X = (1, 2, 3)

Proof:
Suppose X does not = (1, 2, 3)

Define N as the number of agents, I_N of the number of possible strategies of player I, and F_N(I) be the strategy space of player N. Therefore the strategy space of the game F(I) is the cross-product of the individual strategy spaces and is of dimension N*I. WLOG we can suppose the number of possible strategies for player is finite and the same for each player. (See: Thomson and Chambers, 2002).

Since F is strictly quasiconcave in N, we can define a counting function C(F,(N,I)). For X to count to 3, the counting function must be in the nuceleolus of F(I).

Suppose player i counts to 4 by (1,2,Z), where Z is not 3. If that happens we cannot be in the nuceleous as player i+1 can strictly increase her payoff by switching to strategy (1,12,3). As this strategy is non-monotic, clearly we are neither at a Nash Equlibrium, nor in the set of second-best allocations. Therefore this strategy space is unstable and not in the core. (See figure 4 for a graphical representation).

Therefore (1,2,Z) is not a viable strategy for player i. Since the players are indistinguishable from each other, it cannot be a viable strategy for any i in I.

By similar reasoning (1,Y,Z) and (A,Y,Z) cannot be a Nash equilibrium due the convexity of the core and the upper-hemicontinuity of the counting function (Moulin 2000).

Therefore we have shown that Z=3. Trivially then A=1, and Y=2, as the counting function must be a series of monotonic strictly positive integers.

QED

- Mike

That was actually surprisingly cathartic. I'm really, really glad I'm work on a more applied topic this year. :)

Robert: If Gomez and Jose Hernandez have the same price tag (and it's under $1M), which one do you sign?

I know my name is not "Robert" but it is pronounced the same and I want to get in on this...

I don't think they would have the same price tag but let's assume they do for the sake of conversation.

Either could back up Hinske at third but so could Berg or Howie Clark or Simon Pond in a pinch so the primary need is someone who could play short. Gomez may be a slight defensive improvement over Woodward but his bat is awful and his splits don't complement the incumbent Jay shortstop.

I sign Jose Hernandez. He's good with the glove, would be a power source off of the bench and has traditionally been better vs. LHP, something the Jays might need due to the loss of Bordick and potentially, Tom Wilson.

I'd sign Royce Clayton before Chris Gomez. I'd probably also sign Tony Batista before Chris Gomez, if he can still play short.

One thing is for sure: Now I know how NERDS count to 3. NERDS!

1) you can sit anywhere in the SkyDeck, not just above row 11 (the guy said there were some complaints about overzealous ushers guarding rows of empty, unsold seats)

2) opening day tickets will be mailed out to Season's Pass holders a month in advance to avoid the chaos of this year's opening day.


I've already ordered mine (they called me late last week).

#2 is a very important point. Many torstar pass holders were denied an opening day ticket to the Yankees game because of all the walk-up sales for that game. I was forced to turn to a scalper. I'm not sure if this offer is being made to new customers or just people renewing their passes (there's nothing on the web form indicating an opening day ticket will be mailed out).

One other thing -- those tickets in the lower rows of the 500 level actually go for $9.00, so your break even point is now 9 games instead of 12...