Jordan, I was just about to link to the same piece; glad I checked first. Agreed, Stewart is a good guy who appreciates his family and friends, and apart from balking at hitting third or being the DH, never made waves in Toronto.

The (MVP) talk grew in media-wild New York, when Stewart had a pair of hits in Game 1 of the division series against the Yankees and made a leaping catch in the ninth inning to rob Hideki Matsui of a possible home run.

Is Baker trying to tell us that playoff performances influence the voters? I thought it was a regular season award, and a guy who missed 26 games and finished 32nd in the league in OPS is hardly a contender.

Anyway, on a day without a ball game, we need something to talk about, and predicting where Shannon will end up, on what kind of contract, is an interesting diversion. My admittedly fuzzy crystal ball says the Dodgers, at $14 million over two years, plus an option.

If he goes to the Giants though where does Bonds play? Maybe San Diego but then where does Nevin play? Possibly Los Angeles...they have money and goodness knows they need hitters. Maybe the Mets for the same reasons.

Or if he decides money isn't that important and/or Twins ownership decides to break the bank a little maybe he stays right where he is. He's a very good fit for that stadium but I doubt the Twins will afford him with Hunter already signed long term and Jones due a raise.

The MVP stuff is ridiculous, but hey Suzuki won it for a lot of the same reasons (i.e. the perception that he made the whole team better). Boone or A-Rod seem like the logical choices to me but difficulty of position played is rarely taken into account in these things. If he does win it though I'll be happy for the guy...he's just honest effort and a humble hitting talent as a player.

I'm not sure where he'll end up, but I think Shannon will be one of the true tests to see where the "market" is going on players. If there is really a reversal in the market then Stewart will not get $6-7 million/year. More in the $4-5 million/year range seems likely. I have a strange feeling that he might end up in Milwaukee with Gordo. I'm just not sure whether Jenkins can really play right field on a regular basis.

Los Angeles is an option. Baltimore is another, if the O's can't lure a bigger name. Shannon is the type of hitter the Yankees like - line drive guy who can hit over .300, but it would necessitate a shifting of Bernie or Matsui or both. The New York Mets should have some openings in the outfield. Colorado is interesting - Shannon might win a batting title if he went there. Seattle may lose Cameron and could decide to move Winn to centre, opening a spot in left.

I don't see the Giants as a possibility because they will be reluctant to put Shannon in rightfield and Barry isn't going anywhere.

Predicted deal: 3 years, 17 million total, team option for 6 million for 2007 which vests if Shannon gets 600 PA in 2005 or 2006, or a 500.000 dollar buyout.

BBWAA voters must turn in their ballots the day after the regular season ends. His playoff performance is irrelevant in theory and in practice.

I read numerous columns extolling the virtues of Stewart as MVP, and every one of them was nauseating. Some writers seem desperate to prove their own cleverness, crediting the entirety of Minnesota's second-half surge to Stewart's hustle and intangibles while blissfully ignoring the concrete achievements of several superior players and the cold fact that the Twins' second-half ERA was nearly a full run per game lower than in the first half.

So that sentence was too long. Okay. Stewart is a good player, maybe a very good one. But that's all. Raul Mondesi had a higher OPS for Arizona than Stewart did for Minnesota. Carl Everett's OPS for Chicago was only .004 lower than Stewart's in Minnesota. Stewart's season-long OPS of .823 is tied with... Frank Catalanotto. Are Everett and Cat MVP candidates? Of course not.

Oh, well.

I'm not sure where he'll end up, but I think Shannon will be one of the true tests to see where the "market" is going on players. If there is really a reversal in the market then Stewart will not get $6-7 million/year. More in the $4-5 million/year range seems likely.

I agree. When total salaries are constant or declining it's the middle players that'll get squeezed.

While Stewart is a nice player, I don't see any team that would view him as a must have player. Really, what does he do to help you besides a .370 OBP? Not much. (I realize a .370 is good, just not $6 million good) If you factor in defense and injuries he may be hurting you outside of his OBP.

If I were his agent I would get a deal as quick as possible before the money started drying up. He could turn into quite a bargain for a team if he waits too long looking for a big deal.

http://economics.about.com
Some writers seem desperate to prove their own cleverness, crediting the entirety of Minnesota's second-half surge to Stewart's hustle and intangibles while blissfully ignoring the concrete achievements of several superior players and the cold fact that the Twins' second-half ERA was nearly a full run per game lower than in the first half.

It's just some sort of McLuhanesque law where perception becomes reality and beliefs are more important than facts. Just like the belief that Mike Harris slashed the health care budget despite the fact government spending on health care kept increasing every year. Since it happens so often in economics and politics, it's not surprising that baseball isn't immune to this kind of non-logic.

Mike

If I were Shannon, I'd take less money and a shorter contract to play in Colorado. As Robert says, he'd have a good shot at a batting title or two.

Scott, you're preaching to the choir on this particular Web site. I really, really, really don't think Stewart will win, but if he does, Jordan is spot on. Let's clean up (read: eliminate) the BBWAA voting process and hand the job to people who can decide elections fairly and squarely: the good residents of Florida. (Yuk yuk yuk)

Here’s a list of potential 2004 free agent outfielders (this may have changed since the Website I stole it from was last updated). The “x” means there’s a club option; Sammy’s “v” means he can void the contract, though I’ve heard no indication that he plans to do so.

Eric Owens
B.J. Surhoff
Carl Everett
x-Ellis Burks
Raul Ibanez
Mike Tucker
Rondell White
Shannon Stewart
Ruben Sierra
Jose Guillen
Mike Cameron
x-John F. Mabry
Mark McLemore
Ben Grieve
Al Martin
Ron Gant
Chris Richard
Juan Gonzalez
Raul Mondesi
Darren Bragg
Gary Sheffield
Doug Glanville
Tom Goodwin
Chris Singleton
Kenny Lofton
Troy O'Leary,
v-Sammy Sosa
Mark Sweeney
Todd Hollandsworth
Orlando Merced
Jeromy Burnitz
Rickey Henderson
x-Brian Jordan
John Vander Wal
Wil Cordero
Vladimir Guerrero
Reggie Sanders
Matt Stairs
Orlando Palmeiro
Marvin Benard
Jose Cruz Jr
Jeffrey Hammonds

You know, that's a lot of outfielders. Most of these guys are filler; of the rest, you can put Guerrero and Sheffield in a league of their own at the top (along with Sosa, should he become available). That leaves a pool of pretty darn good players in the next tier:

Juan Gonzalez
Mike Cameron
Jose Guillen
Carl Everett
Raul Ibanez
Reggie Sanders
Shannon Stewart
Kenny Lofton
Jose Cruz Jr.
Brian Jordan
Raul Mondesi
Jeromy Burnitz

This is a pretty impressive group; it may well be difficult for Shannon to pull down anything top-of-the-range. But he has excellent buzz following his half-season in Minnesota, and if the unthinkable does happen, an MVP award will drive his price even higher.

I note with no small amusement that the Jays’ entire 2002 starting outfield are all free agents.

Speaking of free agents, I have to reproduce this quite amusing article by Jim Caple, calling George Steinbrenner a tightwad for not spending any money on a decent bench and bullpen. It's tongue-in-cheek, of course, but it does make the point that George sometimes makes the mistake of spending tons of money on stars and next to nothing on the 20th through 25th guys who often improbably make an impact in short series. Win or lose this World Series, I wonder if he'll keep adding Guerrero-level stars this off-season, or let Brian Cashman make the calls -- if there even is a Brian Cashman. Thanks to Jeff (aka torontonorth47) for the link.

It would be nice to see Stewart go to a team that will give him the green light--so he can run.

Do we know how hamstrung Brian Cashman is with respect to assembling the team's roster? There's no doubt that Steinbrenner has a say when it comes to deciding on the frontline talent (and his old buddy Boomer) and that Torre has a say when it comes time to patronage assignments (like Zeile), but surely Cashman, as GM, must have some say in who occupies roster spots 21 to 25.

Why does he get off the hook for what is, ostensibly, his job?

Who's idea are the Luis Sojos, Enrique Wilsons, Alberto Castillos, and John Flahertys of the world?

Los Angeles is an option. Baltimore is another, if the O's can't lure a bigger name.

Baltimore isn't really an option. Melvin Mora can do everything that Stewart and can do, and is cheaper. The Os brass seems to be lusting after "sluggers".

If the Os fail to sign Vlad or Sheffield (??), I wouldn't be surprised if they go into next season with an outfield of Mora, Matos and Bigbie. They can blow the big bucks on a 3B and a catcher. Maybe they'll sign Ibanez as a OF/DH.

It would be nice to see Stewart go to a team that will give him the green light--so he can run

The Twins run plenty. It's Stewart who doesn't run, these days. Bobby Kielty stole more bases than Stewart in about the same time on the Twins. When Stewart did run, he did it badly: He was 3 for 7 with the Twins, 4 for 10 on the year. Even in 2002 with the Jays, he only stole one more base than Eric Hinske (and I don't think there's much question who's faster).

I always thought the Deivi Cruz...Shortstop experiment could be ended and Mora could move back to the infield. If so, it's possible that Shannon could go to Baltimore. A team that seems a natural fit, however, is Anaheim. They are a team that values the high average and could use a leadoff hitter. Of course, this would mean that Garret would have to move over to right and that Salmon would be pushed into a DH role.

Oh yeah, that pushes Fullmer to first and makes Spiezio a fulltime Sandfrog. By the way, I'm sure everyone checks ESPN on a daily basis but they have a good free agent list

http://economics.about.com
Baseball Prospectus just announced that A-Rod is the AL MVP. Well, the internet version of the award, at least. Shannon Stewart finished 17th.

Mike

Hijack
Baseball America has the list for the 6 year free agents available on their website.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/031024sixyearfa.html
The Jays have 17 players from their system on the list. Most significant arw Bowles, Markwell, Sturtze, Thurman, and Jimmy Alvarez.

Dylan, thanks for the tip. There was an interesting name on the list. A lefty pitcher named Andrew Lorraine who came up in the Angels system in the mid 90s, and looked very good, failed at the major league level, ended up in the Dodger system this year and actually pitched quite well in Triple A Las Vegas. I'd be interested.

Who's idea are the Luis Sojos, Enrique Wilsons, Alberto Castillos, and John Flahertys of the world?

I think Torre gets a lot of input on those players.

Fullmer was released by the Angels I think, but he might re-sign with them.

I think Baltimore will go with Roberts and Hairston as their DP combination. Mora might be a good as a third baseman - Tony Batista might be moving on.

""Dylan, thanks for the tip. There was an interesting name on the list. A lefty pitcher named Andrew Lorraine who came up in the Angels system in the mid 90s, and looked very good, failed at the major league level, ended up in the Dodger system this year and actually pitched quite well in Triple A Las Vegas. I'd be interested."

Mike, I've kind of lost track with Lorraine over the yr.s but this is a guy who was labeled can't miss coming into AAA Vancouver. Seen him pitch a few times and he could throw smoke. I kind of like your idea of taking a flyer on him. Worst case is you have a veteran in Syracuse.

""Dylan, thanks for the tip. There was an interesting name on the list. A lefty pitcher named Andrew Lorraine who came up in the Angels system in the mid 90s, and looked very good, failed at the major league level, ended up in the Dodger system this year and actually pitched quite well in Triple A Las Vegas. I'd be interested."

Mike, I've kind of lost track with Lorraine over the yr.s but this is a guy who was labeled can't miss coming into AAA Vancouver. Seen him pitch a few times and he could throw smoke. I kind of like your idea of taking a flyer on him. Worst case is you have a veteran in Syracuse.

I think Baltimore will go with Roberts and Hairston as their DP combination. Mora might be a good as a third baseman - Tony Batista might be moving on.

I think it's certain that Baltimore has seen the last of Tony B. Hopefully they'll give Roberts the SS job, but they may blow big money on a name. Mora's been mentioned for 3B, but the brass is making noise about filling 3B with a free agent also. Beatagan is totally unpredictable. They'll probably do someting stupid (begining with hiring Terry F****** Francona).

Here's a list of FA pitchers. I believe it's pretty accurate.

Starters:
Wilson Alverez
Brian Anderson
Andy Ashby*
Pedro Astacio
Miguel Batista*
Jason Bere
John Burkett
Chris Carpenter*
Roger Clemens
Bartolo Colon
Jeff D'Amico
Scott Erickson
Kelvim Escobar
Shawn Estes
Jimmy Haynes
Pat Hentgen*
Sterling Hitchcock*
Cory Lidle
Esteban Loaiza*
Jose Lima
Greg Maddux
Kevin Millwood
Hideo Nomo*
Robert Person
Andy Pettite
Sidney Ponson
Luke Prokopec
Rick Reed*
Shane Reynolds**
Todd Ritchie
Kenny Rogers
Glendon Rusch
Jeff Suppan*
John Thomson
Ron Villone
David Wells*

___________________________________________________________

Closers:
Rod Beck
Armando Benitez
Mike DeJean*
Keith Foulke
Eddie Guardado
Tom Gordon
Trevor Hoffman*
Jose Jimenez
Curt Leskanic
Jose Mesa
Ugueth Urbina
Mike Williams
Tim Worrell

________________________________________________________________

Middle relievers:
Juan Acevedo*
Terry Adams
Antonio Alfonseca
Steve Avery
Hector Carrasco
Doug Creek*
Vic Darensbourg
Joey Eischen*
Cal Eldred
Jeff Fassaro*
John Franco
Mike Fetters
Chad Fox
Jason Grimsley
Mark Guthrie
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
LaTroy Hawkins
Felix Heredia
Roberto Hernandez
Bobby Howry*
Darren Holmes
Mike Jackson
Todd Jones
Eric Knott
Al Levine
Graham Lloyd
Jim Mecir
Kent Mercker
Brian Moehler
Mike Myers
Jeff Nelson
Darren Oliver
Antonio Osuna*
Authur Rhodes
Steve Reed
Carlos Reyes
Jesus Sanchez
Danny Serafini
Steve Sparks*
Russ Springer
Scott Sullivan
Julian Tavarez
Mike Timlin
Turk Wendell
Gabe White
Matt Wise
Mark Wohlers

* - Team Option, ** - Mutual option, *** - Player option