Statistic  How to read it in English           How it is calculated
---------  ----------------------------------  --------------------
$H         "batting average on balls in play"  (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR)
$BB        "walk rate"                             BB/TBF
$K         "strikeout rate"                         K/TBF
$HR        "home run rate"                         HR/TBF

Intentional walks and hit by pitches are often removed from the denominators of these ratios, but I have not bothered with that correction here. In most cases the effect is quite small.

I have arbitrarily included rate stats only for pitchers who threw at least 20 innings for a given team.

Ages are of July 1 and are given in the form years.months.

The 2003 International League

IL pitchers allowed 4.57 runs (4.02 of which were earned) per nine innings in 2003. Out of every thousand batters they faced, 179 struck out, 77 walked, and 20 homered; out of every thousand batters who put the ball in play, 340 hit safely. The league K/BB ratio was 2.32.

The 2003 Syracuse Skychiefs

Without accounting for park factors, Syracuse pitchers were the worst in the International League this summer, allowing 5.03 runs (4.46 earned) per nine innings. The SkyChiefs didn't place last in the league in any of hits allowed, walks allowed, home runs allowed, or strikeouts, but they were below average in each category. For each thousand batters they faced, they struck out 168 while walking 83 and allowing 21 home runs; their batting average allowed on balls in play was .317. The low batting average allowed on batted balls may be attributed to park effects, to sheer luck, or to the soft hands of Simon Pond.

The only Syracuse pitcher who threw at least twenty innings and beat league norms in each of walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed was, surprisingly enough, John Wasdin. Josh Towers, Doug Linton, Jason Kershner, Corey Thurman, and Evan Thomas allowed fewer walks than league average; Scott Cassidy, Dan Reichert, Tim Young, and Corey Thurman struck out more men than league average; Brian Bowles, Jason Kershner, Dan Reichert, Scott Cassidy, Tim Young, and Josh Towers allowed fewer home runs than league average. Note the absence of the names "Jason Arnold," "Mike Smith," and "Vinnie Chulk" from all three of those lists.

I have included player comments for pitchers who threw a significant number of innings for Syracuse but not for Toronto. Thus, Corey Thurman is here, but Josh Towers, Jason Kershner, and Jeff Tam are not. I've also included comments on pitchers like Juan Pena, Kevin Frederick, and Bob File, who didn't pitch many innings but have attracted some interest, either on this board or elsewhere.

Arnold, Jason age 24.2, throws R, 6'3", 210 lbs
AA New Haven: 3-1, 0.75 ERA, 6 G, 6 GS, 35.1 IP, 18 H, 11 BB, 33 K, 2 HR, .193/.080/.241/.015
AAA Syracuse: 4-8, 4.33 ERA, 21 G, 20 GS, 120.2 IP, 121 H, 46 BB, 82 K, 16 HR, .288/.088/.157/.031

Next time a Toronto pitching prospect begins a season with six starts like Arnold's (or Vince Perkins'), we'll all be a bit more sanguine. While Arnold certainly pitched very well before getting the call to Syracuse, he was also the beneficiary of a good deal of luck: no one maintains anything close to a .193 $H over the long term. Arnold's performance in Syracuse was, plain and simple, a disappointment. He fell below league norms in walk rate, strikeout rate, home run rate, and earned run average. His batting average allowed on balls in play was .051 below league average and .028 below team average, so his hits allowed and ERA probably look a little better than they should. His performance was noticeably worse in his last eleven starts (62.2 IP, 60 H, 10 HR, 25 BB, 38 K) than in his first ten (58 IP, 61 H, 6 HR, 21 BB, 44 K).

Let's play Rob Neyer's favorite game. I'm going to give you the season-by-season minor league stats of two pitchers.

Career Minor League Stats, Jason Arnold

Age	Level		IP	H	BB	K	HR
----    ------------    -----   ---     --      --      --
22.2	Short-Season	 66	 35	15	74	 2
23.2	High-A		 80	 64	22	83	 2
	AA		 75.1	 59	29	71	 3
24.2	AA		 35.1	 18	11	33	 2
	AAA		120.2	121	46	82	16

Career Minor League Stats, Pitcher B

Age	Level		IP	H	BB	K	HR
----    ------------    -----   ---     --      --      --
22.9	Short-Season	 93	 80	26	77	 7
23.9	Low-A		 94.1	 78	21	85	 2
	AA		 51	 41	17	55	 1
24.9	AAA		121.2	106	43	76	10

Now, these pitchers aren't quite twins. Arnold is seven months younger than pitcher B at every level. Arnold's short-season numbers are somewhat better, although pitcher B might have a slight edge at the higher levels. Still, if you can find a better match, I'll be quite impressed.

Pitcher B is Mike Smith.

Am I trying to suggest that we should give up on Jason Arnold? No. But I do think that our best estimates of his probabilities of reaching various levels of major-league performance should be adjusted downwards. He still has an excellent chance of pitching in the major leagues for at least a season or two, a good chance of being a productive major league starter for several years, and a modest but not insignificant chance of being a very good starting pitcher with a long career. Nevertheless, an impartial assessment would have given him a better chance of doing any of these things back in May than it does now.

If you want to call this analysis a cop-out, feel free to do so. I don't have access to any privileged information, so all I can really do is deal in probabilities. Robert Dudek has already pointed out that 2004 will be a huge year for Arnold. If he pitches like Mike Smith v.2003, then his chances of making it as a starter drop to just about nil. If he strikes out a man an inning with a 4:1 K:BB ratio in his first ten starts, then he'll probably be in the Toronto rotation by July. And if you can predict with a high degree of accuracy which of these paths he'll follow, then you're wasting your time on this board; go to Vegas and make some money.

Bowles, Brian age 26.10, throws R, 6'5", 220 lbs
AAA Syracuse: 2-3, 14 SV, 2.66 ERA, 41 G, 0 GS, 47.1 IP, 47 H, 21 BB, 32 K, 1 HR, .307/.100/.152/.005
Toronto: 0-0, 0 SV, 2.57 ERA, 5 G, 0 GS, 7 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HR

I've been Bowles's Biggest Booster on this board all year, but let's call a spade a spade: the man simply didn't pitch well this year. From 1999 through 2002, he was a mildly interesting minor-league reliever who struck a fair number of batters out and kept the ball in the park but gave up too many walks. He's still stingy on home runs, and he's still giving out the free passes, um, freely, but his strikeout rate fell below the IL average this year. If Bowles wants to become major-league bullpen fodder, he'll have to substantially improve either his strikeout rate, his walk rate, or both.

Cassidy, Scott age 27.9, throws R, 6'2", 175 lbs
AAA Syracuse: 3-4, 4 SV, 3.24 ERA, 57 G, 0 GS, 80.2 IP, 75 H, 46 BB, 75 K, 3 HR, .329/.130/.212/.008

Cassidy, like Mike Smith, is a guy whose season-by-season stats are worth looking over if you fancy yourself an amateur minor-league analyst:

Season	Level	Age	IP	H	BB	K	HR
------  ------  ----    -----   ---     --      ---     --
1998	Rookie	22.9	 81.1	 71	14	 82	 4
1999	Low-A	23.9	170.2	151	30	178	13
2000	High-A	24.9	 88	 53	34	 89	 4
2000	AA	24.9	 42.2	 48	15	 39	 7
2001	AA	25.9	 96.2	 78	27	 81	10
2001	AAA	25.9	 63	 60	26	 48	 6

Fellows, I can guarantee you that if we had Scott Cassidy v.1998, v.1999, or v.2000 in our minor league system right now, we'd be excited about him. I do not mean to suggest that we shouldn't take minor league stats seriously, but rather that we should temper our enthusiasm about guys who have never hit AAA ball. There are some Mike Smiths and Scott Cassidys (Cassidies?) lurking in the current A-ball crop, too.

Cassidy had a very Brian Bowles-like season in 2003. Come to think of it, Cassidy's 2002 performancee in Toronto and 2003 performance in Syracuse make an excellent counter-argument to my monthly call-up-Brian-Bowles diatribes. This just in from the Department of Pointing Out the Obvious: just like Bowles, Cassidy won't make it back into a major league pen unless he can improve his strikeout rate and/or walk rate.

Chulk, Vinnie age 24.6, throws R, 6'2", 185 lbs
AAA Syracuse: 8-10, 4.22 ERA, 23 G, 21 GS, 119.1 IP, 118 H, 46 BB, 90 K, 14 HR, .291/.088/.172/.027

Hands up everyone who thought that Vinnie Chulk would be the ace of the 2003 Syracuse staff. Nobody? After Towers got the call from across Lake Ontario, Chulk was the most dependable starter around. He tied Mike Smith for the team lead in wins and edged out Corey Thurman in ERA. Chulk is essentially the same age as Jason Arnold, and he was ever-so-slightly better than Arnold in Syracuse this year. As a soft-tossing righty, however, he'll have done well if he lands a major-league middle relief job for a few years. Chulk's strikeouts rose ever-so-slightly from 2002, but his walks slipped a touch and his home runs rose a fair bit.

Season	Level	Age	IP	H	BB	K	HR
------  -----   ----    -----   ---     --      ---     --
2002	AA	23.6	152	133	53	108	12
2003	AAA	24.5	119.1	118	46	 90	14

All in all, anyone who thinks that 2003 was a disappointing summer for Chulk must have had unreasonable expectations to begin with.

Colangelo, Mike age 26.9, throws R, 6'1", 185 lbs
AAA Syracuse: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 G, 1 IP, 2 H, 1 K, 1 HBP

Our own Brooks Kieschnick!

File, Bob age 26.5, throws R, 6'4", 210 lbs
A Dunedin: 0-0, 3.00 ERA, 3 G, 2 GS, 3 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HR
AAA Syracuse: 0-0, 4.22 ERA, 11 G, 0 GS, 10.2 IP, 10 H, 2 BB, 7 K, 0 HR

The jury is still out on File's rehab. Bear in mind that his 2001 peripherals with the Blue Jays weren't all that impressive and he fell off a lot in the second half. I'd be as happy as the next guy to see File make it back to The Show, but I'm not holding my breath.

Frederick, Kevin age 26.8, throws L, 6'1", 210 lbs
AA New Haven: 2-2, 7 SV, 3.38 ERA, 25 G, 0 GS, 29.1 IP, 32 H, 14 BB, 27 K, 3 HR, .330/.104/.200/.022
AAA Syracuse: 1-3, 2 SV, 8.06 ERA, 24 G, 0 GS, 25.2 IP, 40 H, 12 BB, 20 K, 5 HR, .402/.093/.155/.039

A converted first baseman from the Twins organization, Frederick has good heat and a hard slider. His high-water mark was 2001, when he struck out 109 versus 28 walks and 5 round-trippers in 82-plus innings for New Britain (AA). He didn't impress in the PCL in 2002, and the Jays picked him up during the offseason. Frederick didn't pitch particularly well for either New Haven or Syracuse; as a 26-year-old reliever who hasn't figured out AAA hitters yet, you have to figure he's nearing the end of the line.

Linton, Doug age 37.10, throws R, 6'1", 190 lbs
AAA Syracuse: 2-10, 5.28 ERA, 31 G, 13 GS, 109 IP, 133 H, 19 BB, 79 K, 13 HR, .347/.041/.169/.028
Toronto: 0-0, 3.00 ERA, 7 G, 0 GS, 9 IP, 7 H, 4 BB, 7 K, 2 HR

I hope this isn't the end for Linton, but his chance of sticking in the majors seems to have passed. Linton wasn't all that bad in a brief stint with Toronto in April (as compared with, oh, say, Jeff Tam), but he was said to have difficulty adjusting to pitching out of the pen and he was sent down in the middle of the month, never to return. In Syracuse, Linton wasn't quite as bad as his 2-10 record and 5.28 ERA would suggest, but he wasn't all that great either. Corey Thurman and Jason Kershner were the only Syracuse hurlers (minimum 40 IP) whose K/BB ratios approached Linton's excellent 4.16:1.

For a while this season after the Jays fell out of the race, I mused about the unlikely possibility of Linton being called up for one last start. (I'm still sentimental about 1992). Part of me thought it would be a nice gesture; the other part thought it would be an embarrassment on the scale of Jeff Frye being held at first base in a meaningless 2001 game in order to complete the cycle. I'm still not sure which instinct to trust, but if Linton had been called up to pitch, I would have gone out to cheer for him.

Pena, Juan age 26.0, throws R, 6'5", 215 lbs
AA Tennessee: 6-5, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 29 G, 14 GS, 95.1 IP, 101 H, 44 BB, 69 K, 7 HR, .328/.106/.166/.017
AA New Haven: 0-0, 5 SV, 2.45 ERA, 7 G, 0 GS, 7.1 IP, 5 H, 5 BB, 10 K, 1 HR
AAA Syracuse: 0-1, 3 SV, 7.56 ERA, 8 G, 0 GS, 8.1 IP, 7 H, 6 BB, 7 K, 2 HR

Pena was a good prospect for the Red Sox in the late 1990s. In 1999, he was called up at the end of the season; he made two excellent starts (one against the Blue Jays) and won both of them. He was injured in a freak spring training accident in 2000 and missed the entire season. After returning in 2001, he had two unimpressive seasons in the minors and made his way first to the Cardinals and then to the Blue Jays via a waiver claim in June. He only managed fifteen-plus innings for New Haven and Syracuse before going on the DL for good on July 21. Looking at his record since the 2000 injury, it's hard to see Pena making it back to the big leagues.

Reichert, Dan age 27.0, throws R, 6'3", 175 lbs
AAA Syracuse: 4-3, 3.57 ERA, 41 G, 58 IP, 55 H, 35 BB, 60 K, 2 HR, .344/.135/.232/.008
Toronto: 0-0, 6.06 ERA, 16.1 IP, 28 H, 8 BB, 13 K, 2 HR

Anyone who labors under the misconception that the Toronto Blue Jays are run by a zombie-like cult of statistical seamheads who enjoy spreadsheets more than baseball games need look no further than Reichert for refutation. Reichert has done absolutely nothing on a baseball diamond since 2000 to suggest that he might be a productive major-league pitcher. But if you've ever seen him pitch, you'll understand why Ricciardi and Law signed him. Reichert has Justin Miller's natural movement but throws about 5 mph faster. To tell you the truth, I have no idea how anyone ever gets a hit off the man. Still, statistics don't lie, and Reichert's career major league numbers are 391 IP, 441 H, 43 HR, 223 BB, 240 K. He was all right in Syracuse this summer; like Bowles and Cassidy, he keeps the ball in the park and strikes out a reasonable number of batters, but his walks are too high.

Smith, Mike age 25.9, throws R, 5'11", 195 lbs
AAA Syracuse: 8-9, 5.00 ERA, 26 G, 21 GS, 131.1 IP, 140 H, 58 BB, 89 K, 13 HR, .316/.099/.153/.022

Smith's 2002 season was a serious disappointment, and he pitched worse in 2003 than in 2002. Perhaps a move to the bullpen is in order. Smith was briefly called up to Toronto in 2003, but he didn't actually pitch in a game.

Thomas, Evan age 29.1, throws R, 5'10", 170 lbs
AAA Syracuse: 4-8, 5.15 ERA, 20 G, 18 GS, 94.1 IP, 108 H, 29 BB, 63 K, 11 HR, .321/.070/.153/.027

Like Linton, Thomas didn't pitch as badly as his win-loss record and ERA suggest. This was Thomas' fourth AAA season (the other three were spent in the Philadelphia organization), and he's essentially the same pitcher he was four years ago. He has good control and is only moderately tater-prone, but his stuff doesn't fool anyone.

Thurman, Corey age 24.8, throws R, 6'1", 215 lbs
AAA Syracuse: 6-4, 4.27 ERA, 17 G, 16 GS, 86.1 IP, 90 H, 26 BB, 72 K, 8 HR, .320/.070/.193/.021
Toronto: 1-1, 6.46 ERA, 6 G, 3 GS, 15.1 IP, 21 H, 9 BB, 11 K, 3 HR

Although Thurman imploded when given a chance to earn a starting job in T.O., he actually pitched rather well for Syracuse this year. Thurman is reputed to be too intense on the mound and to intermittently lose his focus. I'm not sure how much of that is truth and how much is exaggeration, but based on his minor league record Thurman should be able to hold a spot in the Toronto rotation. If he doesn't make it as a starter, he should be a useful reliever for a number of years. He holds a special place in our hearts as the first of JP's long line of Rule 5 claims. Aquilino Lopez has worked out better than Thurman so far, but Thurman may end up being more valuable in the long run.

Wasdin, John age 30.11, throws R, 6'2", 195 lbs
AAA Nashville: 8-4, 3.04 ERA, 18 G, 18 GS, 112.1 IP, 101 H, 24 BB, 116 K, 4 HR, .319/.052/.251/.009
AAA Syracuse: 2-1, 5.23 ERA, 10 G, 1 GS, 20.2 IP, 28 H, 1 BB, 21 K, 1 HR, .409/.011/.231/.011
Toronto: 0-1, 0-1, 23.40 ERA, 3 G, 2 GS, 5 IP, 16 H, 4 BB, 5 K, 2 HR

I imagine that 2003 will stick out in John Wasdin's memory as a year of especially high peaks and low valleys. In his first start of the season for Nashville, he threw a perfect game; 103 innings later, having seemingly tamed his tatterific tendencies (4 HR allowed), he was picked up by the Blue Jays for Rich Thompson. Wasdin lasted only one relief outing and two starts in Toronto; given a chance to claim his spot in a major league rotation full of holes, he couldn't capitalize. After being sent to Syracuse, Wasdin pitched quite well overall (21 K, 1 BB, 1 HR in 20-plus innings) but his ERA was ruined by a couple of bad outings. It's hard to imagine Wasdin getting another shot with the Jays; next to Doug Linton, he's probably the SkyChief for whom one most wishes things could have turned out differently.

Wiggins, Scott age 27.3, throws L, 6'3", 205 lbs
AA New Haven: 0-1, 0 SV, 4.00 ERA, 17 G, 0 GS, 18 IP, 19 H, 2 BB, 13 K, 1 HR
AAA Syracuse: 2-2, 1 SV, 6.62 ERA, 35 G, 0 GS, 35.1 IP, 47 H, 22 BB, 22 K, 4 HR, .355/.125/.125/.023

Although Scott Wiggins only pitched 2.2 innings for the Jays in 2002 and will likely never play at SkyDome again, he'll always be one of our favorite acquisitions, for he rid us of Raul Mondesi. Wiggins pitched quite poorly in 2003, but he may yet win the LOOGY lottery at some point down the road.

Young, Tim age 29.9, throws L, 5'9", 170 lbs
AAA Syracuse: 2-3, 1 SV, 6.75 ERA, 19 G, 0 GS, 26.2 IP, 23 H, 25 BB, 25 K, 2 HR, .292/.195/.195/.016
AAA Colorado Springs: 2-1, 0 SV, 2.49 ERA, 29 G, 0 GS, 25 IP, 21 H, 8 BB, 27 K, 3 HR, .290/.076/.257/.029

Young, like Thomas, signed a minor-league contract in the offseason, but was beaten out by Trever Miller in spring training. He proceeded to walk a batter per inning in Syracuse, and was released in June. After being signed by Colorado, Young turned things around, but I don't think we're going to look upon him as the one that got away.