Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Farm Report 2003: Syracuse (Hitters)

Farm Report 2003: Syracuse (Hitters)

The 2003 Syracuse SkyChiefs will be the last team of their type during JP's tenure in Toronto. Very few of Syracuse's position players this year were young prospects who had been drafted by the Blue Jays and advanced through the system. Most of the promising players that Gord Ash drafted or signed in the latter years of his tenure have either moved up to Toronto (Phelps, Wells, Hudson, Johnson, Woodward) or been traded (F-Lop). Gabe Gross and Kevin Cash were the only Ash draftees, undrafted free agents, or international signings to make a significant impact with the bat in Syracuse this summer; they'll be followed by Alexis Rios, Guillermo Quiroz, and Dominic Rich next year, who pretty much represent the end of that cohort. Russ Adams, Aaron Hill, Jason Waugh, Vito C, and other Ricciardi draftees will reach Syracuse in the next year or two, but the only three of Ricciardi's men to swing the bat in the Almost-Show this year were the immortal Scott Dragicevich, Brian Patrick, and Michael Galloway, who compiled 76 plate appearances in late-season call-ups.

So who filled in for the missing homegrown players? The plurality of SkyChief hitters were minor league veterans in their mid-twenties to early thirties who had been in one or two other organizations before landing in upstate New York. These guys are like the indigenous fauna of South America just before the Panama land bridge was formed. They're about to face massive competition from a horde of invaders, and they won't all still be around when the dust settles. In years to come, the minor-league vets will dwindle and be replaced by the patient (even zombie-like) college hitters coming off the Ricciardi drafting treadmill.

On to the player comments!

A note on statistics

Two sets of batting statistics are employed throughout this article without annotation:

1. The traditional BA/OBP/SLG
2. Robert Dudek's $H/$BB/$K/$P. (I've invented the notation "$P" for consistency.)

Metric How to read it in English How it is calculated
------ --------------------------------- ----------------------
$H "batting average on balls in play" (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR)
$BB "walk rate" BB/PA
$K "strikeout rate" K/PA
$P "power rating" (2*HR+2B+3B)/(AB-K)

Sets of three numbers represent BA/OBP/SLG; sets of four numbers represent Robert's stats. The latter are sometimes explicitly called "Dudek numbers" for clarity; Robert, I apologize for any embarrassment.

Player ages are as of July 1 and are given in the form years.months.

The 2003 International League

International League batsmen hit .265/.327/.401 in 2003 with a .340 batting average on balls in play, a .077 walk rate, a .179 strikeout rate, and a power rating of .134. The average IL team scored 625 runs.

The 2003 Syracuse Skychiefs

Without adjusting for park effects, Syracuse's 2003 offense was just slightly below league average. The SkyChiefs scored 598 runs while hitting .260/.327/.396; their Dudek numbers were .336/.082/.184/.136.

Statistics and comments are provided for those players who spent a substantial amount of time in Syracuse and didn't lay a firm claim to a job in Toronto. Therefore, this report includes Jayson Werth (whose future with the Jays is quite uncertain) but not Reed Johnson (who has fourth-outfielder tenure), Howie Clark (who made a good bid for a backup infield job) and Kevin Cash (who hit spectacularly badly in Toronto but will nevertheless probably start 2004 with the big club.) You'll have to get your fix of those guys elsewhere.

Alvarez, Jimmy SS/2B, age 23.9, bats B, throws R, 5'10", 168 lbs
AAA: 342 AB, 45 R, .257/.342/.371, 13 2B, 7 3B, 4 HR, 45 BB, 92 K, 11 SB, 5 CS, .358/.116/.237/.112

Sequea, Jorge 2B/SS/3B, age 22.9, bats B, throws R, 5'10", 165 lbs
AA: 111 AB, 17 R, .342/.400/.459, 7 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 11 BB, 21 K, 0 SB, 4 CS, .309/.097/.146/.111
AAA: 271 AB, 43 R, .255/.341/.373, 15 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 30 BB, 45 K, 7 SB, 5 CS, .432/.088/.168/.122
Total: 382 AB, .280/.358/.398, .344/.095/.152/.114

Since 2001, Jimmy Alvarez has advanced a level a year while putting up pretty good numbers for a middle infielder. At 21 years of age plus a full-term pregnancy, he hit .283/.351/.392 in Dunedin (Russ Adams, anyone?); last year, he bumped those numbers up to .278/.383/.402 in the more hitter-friendly Southern League. In Syracuse this year, he carbon-copied a .273/.363/.414 line ... that is, if you ignore the .211/.278/.245 tailspin in August and September. All in all, it wasn't a great season for Alvarez. He isn't very old and he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses at the plate, but neither does he really stand out from the crowd of middling infielders. Alvarez's future will likely be determined by greater powers than he can contradict: if he catches a break, he could be Dave Berg; if he doesn't, he could be Moonlight Graham. Finishing your first AAA season 18-for-86 tends to put you on the latter career path, small sample size or no.

Jorge Sequea came over from the Tigers in the offseason; when you have Omar Infante and Ramon Santiago around, what need could you have for a middle infielder who hit a respectable .267/.343/.380 in AA at age 21? Sequea hit over his head in New Haven until mid-June (c.f. Pond, Simon) and played Staples Delivery Truck Race with Alvarez after being promoted to Syracuse. Although the two players finished the season in a virtual dead heat, you have to call Sequea the better prospect at this point simply because he's a year younger. Alvarez may be a better fielder; over two-thirds of his starts were at shortstop, whereas Sequea played mostly second base after his promotion.

While Alvarez and Sequea hit for the same batting average and displayed similar power and patience at the plate, there is one important difference between their batting styles. Alvarez struck out once more every eleven plate appearances than Sequea did, but compensated by getting one extra hit on every 21 balls in play. Does this observation predict greater success for one player than for the other? If I had to put money on it, I'd say that it's more likely that Sequea will boost his $H than that Alvarez will slash his $K, but I'd like to see the evidence, too.

Aven, Bruce OF, age 31.4, bats R, throws R, 5'9", 180 lbs
AAA: 192 AB, 21 R, .214/.309/.286, 26 BB, 44 K, .283/.118/.200/.074
Colangelo, Mike OF, age 26.8, bats R, throws R, 6'0", 185 lbs
AAA: 310 AB, 42 R, .281/.375/.413, 37 BB, 74 K, .377/.103/.206/.140
Ryan, Rob OF, age 30.0, bats L, throws L, 5'11", 190 lbs
AAA: 181 AB, 30 R, .249/.333/.442, 21 BB, 24 K, .298/.101/.116/.185

Although none of these guys has a stellar minor-league track record, there was some talk in the offseason that one or more of them would head north with the big team. They all played themselves out of a job in spring training and were kicked off the team bus a few hours before it pulled into T.O. Rob Ryan hit pretty well for the SkyChiefs in the early going but was released on June 19 in anticipation of Bruce Aven's return from the DL. Well, you can't win 'em all. Mike Colangelo hit better than either of the other two; he's also by far the youngest, and his name is just priceless. He was something of a hot prospect back in 1999 with the Angels, but he missed all of 2000 with injuries and didn't do much at the plate the next two years. If the Jays gave out a Minor League Comeback Player of the Year Award, Colangelo would have to be in the running; more to the point, however, his chance of making it past Wells/Cat/Kielty/Sparky/Gross/Griffin/Lexi/Werth and grabbing a fourth outfielder's job is comparable to the Tigers' chance of making the playoffs in BP's latest Postseason Odds Report. Mike, you're in the wrong organization.

Burnham, Gary 1B, age 28.9, bats L, throws L, 5'11", 200 lbs
AAA: 349 AB, 44 R, .269/.328/.424, 25 BB, 54 K, .326/.065/.141/.149

Baseball Prospectus 2003 made the caustic remark that Burnham fits the first two-thirds of the phrase "freely available talent" but comes up short in the remainder. Unfortunately, their assessment is largely accurate. After being stuck in AA for three years in the Phillies' organization, Burnham hit well for Syracuse in 2002 but didn't manage to push past Brian Lesher and Pedro Swann in the Let's-Acquire-Major-League-Service-Time Sweepstakes. In 2003, Burnham's walk rate fell and his strikeout rate rose; more importantly, Simon Pond has passed him in the ranking of guys who can hit AAA pitching but don't have any defensive versatility. The Jays are willing to give AAA veterans a chance, but they've got an enormous backlog of guys who can hit a little and have more upside, so Burnham really needs to find another organization that's just as open to minor-league vets but doesn't have as much talent at the higher levels. Either that, or he'll spend the next few years playing a pretty good first base in the IL and PCL; it's probably not such bad work.

Gross, Gabe OF, age 23.8, bats L, throws R, 6'3", 205 lbs
AA: 310 AB, 52 R, .319/.423/.481, 23 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 52 BB, 53 K, .396/.141/.144/.156
AAA: 182 AB, 22 R, .264/.380/.456, 16 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 31 BB, 56 K, .397/.144/.259/.222
Total: 492 AB, .299/.407/.472, .396/.142/.186/.178

Gross's 2002 was about as big of a disappointment as one could have imagined. I recall Baseball America claiming that he made a lot of loud outs early in the season, got frustrated, and lost his stroke. Considering that Gross's year by year $H numbers for 2001-2003 are .403, .298, and .396, the theory certainly seems plausible. Anyway, Gross had an excellent year in 2003; repeating AA, all four of his Dudek numbers improved. He demonstrated excellent plate discipline and good gap power; one hopes that some of those two-baggers will turn into four-baggers down the road. After a July 10 promotion to Syracuse, Gross continued to hit well, and his power jumped markedly. A note of caution: so did his strikeouts. In fact, Gross's numbers in AAA are reminiscent of Jayson Werth's numbers the previous year (insofar as one can really reminisce about such things):

Player Year Level Age $H $BB $K $P
Jayson Werth 2002 AAA 23.1 0.380 0.128 0.239 0.198
Gabe Gross 2003 AAA 23.8 0.397 0.144 0.259 0.222

Both players hit for a high average on batted balls and demonstrated power and willingness to take a walk. Oh, and they both struck out an awful lot. I don't mean to suggest that Gross is no better of a prospect now than Werth was a year ago. However, I hope that he gets sent back to AAA for a few months to start the year with instructions that he is expected to cut his strikeout rate before getting called up. As we are all aware, strikeouts qua strikeouts aren't very damaging, but a high strikeout rate at one level is often thought (based on admittedly sketchy evidence) to be a negative indicator of success at the next level. Anyway, Gross has an excellent and well-deserved chance to seize the right field job sometime next year, and he could hit like Eric Hinske v.2002. The comparisons to Shawn Green are more than a tad ridiculous, but Gross should be a good right fielder for years to come.

Huckaby, Ken C/1B, age 32.5, "bats R," throws R, 6'1", 205 lbs
AAA: 267 AB, 24 R, .292/.326/.378, 15 BB, 30 K, .333/.053/.105/.084

If Colangelo and Burnham are in the wrong organization, Huckaby's in the wrong era. He doesn't have a great arm, but he has a reputation for calling a good game and framing pitches better than just about anybody. He doesn't walk or hit for power, but he hardly ever strikes out, so his batting average is respectable. He could have been Brad Ausmus if everything had broken his way. Huckaby and Simon Pond are working on a scheme for getting called up together to play on days that Mark Hendrickson pitches: Hendrickson will bat for himself and Pond will DH for Huckaby.

Keene, Kurt OF/3B/2B/SS/1B, age 25.10, bats R, throws R, 6'0", 190 lbs
A: 135 AB, 20 R, .341/.388/.467, 7 BB, 19 K, .404/.048/.129/.121
AA: 153 AB, 18 R, .281/.327/.366, 10 BB, 12 K, .309/.060/.071/.078
AAA: 140 AB, 20 R, .236/.299/.314, 13 BB, 28 K, .297/.084/.182/.080
Total: 428 AB, 58 R, .285/.337/.381, .335/.064/.126/.092

In 2001, Keene hit .179/.216/.211 in 190 AB for Charleston and Dunedin, so he's actually improved a great deal in two years. Check back in two more; if he's improved again by the same amount, he could be the second coming of Luis Sojo, and sit on the end of Joe Torre's bench for several years collecting World Series rings.

Combining his totals over all three levels, Keene played 26 games at second base, 30 at short, and 19 at third, as well as 32 in the outfield and 4 at first base. You have to figure he knows how to field a baseball pretty well.

Moriarty, Mike SS/3B, age 29.4, bats R, throws R, 6'0", 195 lbs
AAA: 176 AB, 25 R, .233/.317/.318, 21 BB, 30 K, .287/.106/.151/.082

In five previous AAA seasons, Moriarty showed patience at the plate and not a great deal else. His numbers slipped in 2003 and the Jays released him on June 20, whereupon he was signed by Houston and sent to New Orleans for the duration.

Pond, Simon 3B/1B, age 26.10, bats L, throws R, 6'1", 190 lbs
AA: 228 AB, 44 R, .338/.440/.513, 17 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 39 BB, 33 K, .410/.143/.121/.164
AAA: 248 AB, 33 R, .306/.353/.460, 21 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 16 BB, 42 K, .378/.060/.158/.155
Total: 476 AB, 77 R, .321/.397/.485, .393/.102/.139/.160

Much as I hate to do this, here are Simon Pond's month-by-month 2003 hitting stats:

Month AB BA OBP SLG BB K Comp (by OPS)
April 74 .378 .516 .622 18 7 Albert Pujols
May 112 .357 .438 .518 16 19 Richard Hidalgo
June 86 .291 .358 .500 8 13 Steve Finley
July 84 .298 .337 .452 4 8 Angel Berroa
Aug./Sept. 120 .292 .346 .383 9 28 Mark Kotsay

I haven't seen anyone decline that much in six months since I took a half-year Latin course. Don't get me wrong; the June/July version of Simon Pond is still a valuable organizational soldier; however, he won't be getting the call from T-dot anytime soon. Pond was on the disabled list for a brief period in June, so it's possible that he was playing hurt the rest of the year. In its totality, Pond's 2003 season should not really have been so surprising; the man hit .321/.378/.473 in the FSL in 2000, .268/.321/.443 in the EL in 2001 and .284/.357/.479 back in the FSL last year. The FSL is a poor hitters' league, so those batting lines are actually quite good.

So where does he go from here? If he hits .290/.350/.460 in Syracuse next year, I don't think he'll be able to crack the 25-man roster -- the Jays have loads of cheap guys who can hit a little, and many of them are younger than Pond and better fielders to boot. Even if he hits .320/.400/.500 for the SkyChiefs, it's hard to see what role the Jays would have for him.

"A patient hitter with a sweet line-drive swing and good but not great power. Stuck in the minor until his late 20s. Played a rotten third base (with some first base on the side) before becoming a full-time DH." I remember once reading of a certain hockey player that "if Mike Foligno is a poor man's Mark Messier, then this guy's a poor man's Mike Foligno." I'm not sure who the poor man's Edgar Martinez would be, but Simon Pond is the poor man's version of him. Cheap jokes aside, Seattle could do worse than taking a flyer on a guy like Pond if Edgar retired.

And no, in case you were wondering, I never actually took a half-year Latin course.

Werth, Jayson OF/C, age 24.1, bats R, throws R, 6'5", 190 lbs
A: 62 AB, 10 R, 23 H, .371/.388/.645, 5 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 3 BB, 14 K, .523/.045/.209/.271
AAA: 236 AB, 37 R, 56 H, .237/.285/.441, 19 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 15 BB, 68 K, 11 SB, 1 CS, .352/.059/.266/.226
MLB: 48 AB, 7 R, 10 H, .208/.255/.417, 4 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 22 K, .417/.059/.431/.308
Total: 346 AB, 54 R, 89 H, .267/.300/.474, 28 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 21 BB, 104 K, 13 SB, 1 CS, .392/.057/.283/.244

While Werth modestly boosted his power in 2003, he slipped in every other hitting category, most noticeably walk-drawing:

Year Level $H $BB $K $P
2001 AA .407 .146 .215 .217
2002 AAA .380 .128 .239 .198
2003 AAA .352 .059 .266 .226

Werth has several things going for him: speed, athleticism, power, defence, and positional versatility. However, it's unclear what role he might have in the Jays' plans. He's not ready to grab an outfield job right now, and he's not going to bump Wells, Gross, or Rios in the medium to long term. He's several inches above the Ricciardi/Law height limit for catchers, and Quiroz is a better hitter to boot. Reed Johnson soundly thrashed Werth in the 2003 Fourth Outfielder Sweepstakes. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Werth really needs to get out of Toronto. There are lots of teams that could use a fourth outfielder and backup catcher with some pop in his bat; hell, there are lots of teams that could do worse than to give Werth a shot as their starting catcher. Maybe we can get John Bale back for him.

Williams, Glenn 3B/1B/OF/2B/SS, age 25.11, bats B, throws R, 6'1", 190 lbs
AAA: 210 AB, 27 R, 49 H, .233/.277/.352, 12 BB, 56 K, .325/.054/.250/.123

Williams came over from the Braves after the 1999 season. He hit well in Dunedin the following summer (.261/.318/.448), had an off year in 2001, and made himself mildly interesting in 2002 by hitting .274/.319/.478 in Syracuse. After last year's implosion, it's hard to imagine him ever making it to T.O. His BB/K ratio has worsened in each of the last two years. Williams, like Keene, is another guy who played all over the diamond in 2003.

Wise, DeWayne OF, age 25.4, bats L, throws L, 6'1", 180 lbs
AAA: 285 AB, 37 R, 62 H, .218/.262/.389, 11 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 17 BB, 72 K, 11 SB, 3 CS, .305/.056/.236/.164

The Jays took Wise in the Rule 5 draft after the 1999 season, and he spent all of 2000 on the major league roster (apart from a brief "rehab assignment" to Tennessee.) Needless to say, this experience did nothing for his development as a baseball player. Wise did nothing with the bat in 2001; the following summer, however, he put together a very creditable .297/.350/.471 batting line in Tennessee. The 2003 debacle has probably ruined Wise's chance of making it back to Toronto.

Zuniga, Tony 3B, age 28.6, bats R, throws R, 6'0", 185 lbs
AAA: 261 AB, 33 R, 77 H, .295/.362/.510, 20 2B, 0 3B, 12 HR, 27 BB, 47 K, .381/.093/.162/.206

Syracuse's best hitter in 2003, and the only one to beat league norms in all four Dudek numbers. This was probably Zuniga's career year, so it's kind of a shame that he only piled up 261 AB and never got called up to The Show.

Posted by Anonymous on Friday, October 17 2003 @ 09:47 AM EDT.

Farm Report 2003: Syracuse (Hitters) | 27 comments | Create New Account

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_Jeff G aka Toro - Saturday, October 18 2003 @ 01:48 AM EDT (#87397) #

A great read John , I would love to see Huckaby get a crack at getting back in the bigs somewhere. What a 1st Class Player he is and boy can he catch, if only he could hit.

I am looking for Gross to be up after the Allstar break !

You are right John , Syracuse is going to be a totally different type of Team next year. They will be Young ,Hungry and Talented.

I predict that Sequea is going to have a breakout 2004 year at Syracuse and turn into a very good prospect.

Coach - Saturday, October 18 2003 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#87398) #

I admit that I didn't follow Syracuse closely this year, but I did see them on TV a few times, thanks to the Rogers community channel in Ottawa airing some Lynx games. So I don't know why Zuniga didn't get more AB, but I'm guessing he was hurt. When you see Ken Huckaby playing third, it suggests there was no better choice. Pond, by the way, was in left field that game, and isn't much better out there than at the hot corner.

I liked the way you grouped Aven, Ryan and Colangelo. You're right; the plan was that one of those no-risk FA signings would have seized the opportunity to go north as the fourth outfielder, but they all had disappointing springs at the plate. Werth's wrist injury and Reed Johnson's spectacular play in the final week of the Grapefruit League sealed their fates, as Sparky passed them all on the depth chart. Colangelo can play all three OF positions very well, and would be nice to have standing by next year as insurance if the injury bug strikes. Along with the Incredible Huck, he's another positve veteran influence on the SkyChiefs, who will be much younger in the future.

Comparing Sequea and Alvarez, the deciding factor will be who continues to make adjustments and improve. We don't know yet who, if anyone, J.P. will sign to replace Mike Bordick. I've suggested Rey Sanchez, and the way Julio Lugo hits in SkyDome, he's another possibility, though I think the Rays have an option on him. Would the Jays go into '04 with Woodward, Hudson and Berg up the middle? I doubt it. Will either AAA "middling infielder" be the 25th man? Way too early to tell, but they will be competing with each other in Dunedin.

Pond's best chance to become the 25th man is to spray line drives all over the Bobby Mattick complex and prove that he's a more useful bat off the bench than Howie Clark. That is the only job he can win, but he could get a few starts at DH against righties that give Phelps trouble. If Simon hits like Albert Pujols again in April, I sure hope he's doing it with the Jays. I'm rooting for the guy; he's Canadian, with the same skill set as I had when I played -- not very good at a variety of positions, but comfortable at the plate.

Great work, John. Looking forward to your review of the pitchers.

_John Neary - Saturday, October 18 2003 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#87399) #

Coach,

Zuniga was on the DL from June 24 until August 4 and from August 6 until the end of the season. I'm not sure exactly what his injuries were. I didn't mean to imply that he was unfairly ignored by management or anything of that sort -- just that it's too bad that he didn't get to play more than he did.

I think you're dead on when it comes to Pond and Clark fighting it out for the 25th spot, together with Werth and (longshot) Colangelo. I'd like to see no more than eleven pitchers next year. That would leave room on the 25-man roster for:

Delgado
Hudson
Woodward
Hinske
Cat
Wells
Kielty
Phelps
Two catchers
Sparky
Berg
Sequea/Alvarez/Mike Bordick v. 2.0

with one spot left over for a bat off the bench. Personally, I'd like to have Howie Clark around whether or not Pond makes the team -- I think Clark should have a chance to win Dave Berg's job.

John

Pistol - Saturday, October 18 2003 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#87400) #

Nice job with the report.

Gross is interesting. His BIP and BB rate were almost identical from New Haven to Syracuse. However, both of his K rate and power rate went up. Not quite sure what to make of that. Is it just a matter of swinging for the fences on good pitches?

I'm really high on Werth, but that's the amateur couch scout in me talking and not the amateur stat head.

It sounds like Cat will be back, and Wells, Kielty and Johnson are all likely to return as well, so there's not much room in the OF for Werth or Gross at the moment. Personally, I'd rather use Cat's money on pitching and put Gross or Werth in RF with Johnson as the 4th OF. Regardless, with Rios coming up hard as well, at some point an OF or two is going to have to be traded.

It'll be interesting what the organization has in mind for Pond since they put him on the 40 man roster. It looks like they expected that he would have been taken in the rule 5 draft but they wanted to keep him (he could probably be a decent DH for several AL teams).

But given that the corner infielders and DH spots in Toronto are filled I don't see where he fits in. Is there a trade coming up that would move him, or open up a position for him in Toronto (Hinske or Phelps being traded)?

Mike Green - Saturday, October 18 2003 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#87401) #

Fine work, John. I agree completely with Pistol's comments about the return of Cat.

_John Neary - Saturday, October 18 2003 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#87402) #

Pistol: I wouldn't discount the amateur scout in you. The consensus among amateur statheads a year ago was that Rios and Quiroz were busts. I agree with you that Werth might turn out to be a pretty good player -- especially given that his 2003 numbers were dragged down by a wrist injury. I just don't think the Jays will have room for him. 2003 was his chance to play himself into their long-term plans and he didn't capitalize.

Personally, I'd like Cat to be back next year. While I'm probably higher on Werth than a lot of other people are, I won't discount the possibility that he might hit .220/.270/.390. As I said in the article, I think Gross needs a little more time. At the risk of opening up a can of worms, I'm a little anxious about Bobby Kielty's .229/.345/.365 batting line from May through September. And I love Reed Johnson as a fourth outfielder, but I don't want him to be handed a starting job. Cat is a pretty safe bet for good production at a reasonable price, and he might fetch prospects or draft picks depending on when he leaves. He also makes it a lot easier for the Jays to trade Orlando Hudson should the right offer present itself.

robertdudek - Saturday, October 18 2003 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#87403) #

Sets of three numbers represent BA/OBP/SLG; sets of four numbers represent Robert's stats. The latter are sometimes explicitly called "Dudek numbers" for clarity; Robert, I apologize for any embarrassment.

Of the 4 stats, only the Power Rating is an invention of mine (as far as I know). It's a spiritual descendant of the Isolated Power conecpt that was put forward by Bill James (and perhaps others before him). The original Isolated Power was SLUGGING PERCENTAGE minus BATTING AVERAGE or (TB-H)/(AB).

I believe that Power Rating is an imporovement on Isolated Power because it better estimates what we're interested in: how hard the batter hits the ball.

The walk and strikeout rates have also been around for some time, though I don't know who was the first to use PA in the denominator. The versions I use are a little different than the ones John uses here. Walk rate is (W-IW)/(PA-IW-HBP); Strikeout rate is K/(PA-IW). Intentional walks are not a function of a batter's command of the strikezone, but rather a function of how much the opposing pitcher/manager avoid pitching to the batter in the given circumstances.

Ball in play average was popularized by Voros McCracken in his studies on the relationship between pitching and defence. Of course it can be turned around to analyze hitters too. Preventing hits on balls in play has been found to be somwhat within the pitcher's control, but this influence is generally not very strong. Batter's BIP AVG varies to a much greater degree, and so we can surmise that the batter has a more significant effect than the pitcher in a given batter-pitcher confrontation on BIP AVG. I think that hitters who tend to hit line drives and/or run fast and hit many ground balls are going to have a higher BIP AVG than average.

Pistol - Saturday, October 18 2003 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#87404) #

Pistol: I wouldn't discount the amateur scout in you

Oh, I would. Even if he does work out like I expect it doesn't make me a good observer of players, just lucky.

When I see Werth I see a more athletic, strong-armed Sexson. Looking at Sexson's minor league numbers he's slugged for a much higher average (mid 500s) however.

Looking back at the JP interview he said Werth reminds him of a less powerful Dale Murphy.

Coach - Saturday, October 18 2003 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#87405) #

Clark should have a chance to win Dave Berg's job

I've heard others compare Berg to Clark, and I don't get it. Despite the mysterious dizziness that cost him a lot of playing time, Dave hit lefties well this year and is a solid platoon option at 2B if the O-Dog continues to be a one-sided switch-hitter. Howie hits from the other side, and doesn't field as well at any of the several positions they have in common. He is strictly a lefty bat, and as such, his competition is Pond, but there probably won't be room for either once Gross arrives.

Nobody outside his immediate family likes Frank Catalanotto more than me. I'm very happy with Cat, Kielty and Sparky sharing the 2004 corner OF spots, though it would be difficult to break Gross into that rotation. The only thing that concerns me about Cat coming back is the effect it would have on Josh Phelps' playing time. Unless there's a trade (say, Kielty to Oakland for a pitcher) there will be too many days for my liking when Phelps sits against a righty and Cat is Tosca's DH.

It's almost amusing that the Jays' offensive "problems" involve having too many good hitters and not enough AB to go around. Their bench will be as good as any in the game next year. If the temporary rotation and bullpen patches work out a bit better, 2004 could be a lot of fun.

_Jabonoso - Saturday, October 18 2003 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#87406) #

John N, I enjoyed your report a lot, the only single thing I did not like was the Bale joke. After a too good to be true 2002 affair with young players, 2003 left me with a bitter taste: Phelps, Werth, Cash, even Kielty and O'dog did not seem to be played to their potential, which, I think, could be above average players-hitters for all of them ( well in Cash case just average hitter...)
Well, I just hope that the rigth decisions are in place to let time sift the chaff from the wheat and do not waste good players for dubios reasons.
Coach, hitting wise the bench is solid, but many have expressed their concern for the glove work needed to sustain a solid rotation.
Third, Shortstop and corner OF�s need to be adressed with defensive replacements, before the platoons with Hudson, Phelps, Cat etc.

_John Neary - Saturday, October 18 2003 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#87407) #

Coach, I'm going to have to respectfully disagree on Berg's platoon splits. Berg hit .304/.353/.506 against lefties this year in 79 AB and .207/.250/.256 against righties in 82 AB. Over the previous three years, however, his splits were practically identical: .264/.310/.384 against lefties (242 AB) and .256/.308/.372 against righties (508 AB). In either case, it's not like the Jays use him strictly as a platoon player, which kind of makes his platoon splits a moot point.

Berg is thirty-three years old and his last four OBPs are .340, .292, .322, .301. You're right that he is a better fielder than Clark, so it was incorrect of me to compare them, but if the Jays hold out any hope for Sequea or Alvarez, I'd like to see one of them plus Clark as the backup infielders next summer. I suppose that I should have said that I'd like to see Sequea or Alvarez win Berg's job, leaving an extra spot for a guy like Pond. Resorting to a tired old argument, I don't think Berg will be around for the next playoff team, although the same is probably true of Clark, Sequea, and Alvarez. In the end, though, it's clear that JP has a thing for veteran backup infielders, and one has to figure his reasons are good ones, so this whole post is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

***

This board is like a black hole; the only way to avoid spending your entire life on it is to go cold turkey, but I think I'm back on the wagon.

***

I am compulsive about not offending anyone, so:

Jabonoso, the Bale joke wasn't meant as a slight on Werth. I'm actually pretty bullish on him; I just don't think he's a great fit for Toronto right now. He'd be much more useful to a team without a glut of outfielders and catchers. His trade value is depressed at the moment, so he won't fetch what he's worth, which is kind of what I meant by the Bale joke.

[There are much more tasteless comments than that one if you look hard enough!]

Robert, I'm crediting you for the complete set of four metrics; I realize that the first three have been kicking around for a while. Regarding the definitions, I should have included a note to the fact that I'd left out the corrections for IBBs and HBPs. (As an aside, what do you think of removing sacrifice hits as well, at least for walk rate?)

robertdudek - Saturday, October 18 2003 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#87408) #

Yes, I myself flip flop between removing and leaving in the sac hit for the walk rate. On balance, it's probably a better idea to remove it. I'd leave them in for the strikeout rate, of course.

Pistol - Saturday, October 18 2003 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#87409) #

Clark should have a chance to win Dave Berg's job

Well, Berg has a contract for next season so it'll be tough for him not to be on the team. Signing Berg to a 2 year contract when there was little to no demand for him remains a curious decision to me. Granted it wasn't for a lot of money, but it takes some roster flexibility away. This is an organization that should be able to find someone in the minors just as good.

Thomas - Sunday, October 19 2003 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#87410) #

My theory is that JP likes to have veteran infielders off the bench, rather than younger players, or would like to have at least one veteran infielder on the bench. Bordick was talking about retiring after this year before his signed his contract last year, so JP could have been aware of that, and decided it'd be easier to give the known quantity an extra year, rather than potentially have to scramble this offseason to find someone with experience. I'm not quite sure exaclty what his reasons are; potentially he wants a steady veteran presence to tutor/keep in line Hudson and Woodward and Berg and Bordick both serve that purpose.

That's just a theory; nothing more than guesswork, but I think there must be a reason JP decided to give Berg two years, and not one and then resign him again if need be after the 2003 campaign.

Pistol - Sunday, October 19 2003 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#87411) #

Thomas - I could be mistaken, but I'm pretty sure Berg was signed prior to signing Bordick.

But you're probably right about wanting a veteran. I just don't see the need for 2 years for a player that has little demand, and is easily replaced.

_Jordan - Sunday, October 19 2003 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#87412) #

Count me among those who didn't really understand two years for Dave Berg. But if that's the biggest problem the 2004 Jays gave, it'll be a pretty good season.

John, sincere admiration for a job extremely well done. This is an excellent overview and analysis of a team that was difficult to review: a collection of recycled veterans and a few genuine prospects who mostly struggled. Very much looking forward to reading your takes on the pitchers.

Regarding Catalanotto: his 823 OPS in 2003 ranked him fourth among AL left fielders (tied with some guy named Stewart), which is more than adequate for that position. But it's also a fact that he's not an everyday player -- not just because of his wonky back, but because of his platoon splits. Check out these quick OPS totals:

Year--------vs LH------vs RH
2003--------544----------869
01-03-------666----------868

It seems pretty clear that Cat is good for 400 AB a season against righties, and needs someone to spell him for those other 150-200 AB against lefties. Happily, the Jays have a fellow on the roster named Bobby Kielty:

Year--------vs LH------vs RH
2003--------967---------656
01-03-------919---------732

Now granted, Kielty hit righties pretty well in 2002 (912, as opposed to 842 against lefties), so I don't think he's necessarily destined for platoon status (his sample size is much smaller too). It would be nice to give him 500 ABs and see if he can post a 900 OPS against both sides. But if the Cat comes back, that's not going to happen, because there's a guy named Reed Johnson who's going to occupy the leadoff spot almost every day under Carlos Tosca. So that leaves you with ---- putting Cat in the DH spot 300-400 times a year, and there goes Josh Phelps' much-needed playing time.

So if Cat returns, I'd be inclined to try something like this (assuming 600 AB per position):

LF
- 300 AB, Catalanotto vs RH
- 100 AB, Kielty vs RH
- 200 AB, Johnson vs LH

RF
- 200 AB, Kielty vs LH
- 100 AB, Kielty vs RH
- 100 AB, Gross vs RH
- 200 AB, Johnson vs RH

DH
- 500 AB, Phelps vs all
- 100 AB, Catalanotto vs RH

Total AB
- Phelps, 500
- Cat, 400
- Johnson, 400
- Kielty, 400
- Gross, 100

You could adjust that to reflect emergent play by Kielty or Gross (who should certainly be ready for a big-league trial by June at the very latest), or a trade of Cat at the deadline. It's a thought.

Mike Green - Sunday, October 19 2003 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#87413) #

Nice thought Jordan, but I just don't see Carlos Tosca as able to manage this. Cat would end up with more of the DH at-bats and Phelps with fewer. This is not in the long-term interest of the team.

Coach - Sunday, October 19 2003 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#87414) #

Yeah, I like the Furlong plan too, and Tosca could follow it, but he probably won't. Carlos seems to like quick guys who get their uniforms dirty, and no doubt, he sees Phelps as one-dimensional. Actually, he is, but what a dimension!

I think if Cat and Kielty are both on the opening day roster, it's bad news for Josh. Remember, the manager is always more inclined to play whoever he thinks will give him the best chance to win that day's game, and long-term player development is far down his priority list. I'm sure that's a bone of contention between many dugouts and front offices; it's not exclusive to Tosca.

It's an issue even when you're both skipper and GM, as I am with my high school team. Every year, I select some Grade Nine and Grade Ten "prospects" for the roster, but once we're keeping score, I tend to play the veterans. Part of me knows the kids will benefit from more playing time (we did give a great freshman crop plenty of action last season) but when the game starts, I'm not thinking two years ahead, I want my best lineup on the field.

_Jabonoso - Monday, October 20 2003 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#87415) #

Jordan for Manager!

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#87416) #

Slight hijack- Gabe Gross has been added to the "Team USA" ballclub currently running a swath through the Arizona Fall League, along with notables like Joe Mauer, Grady Sizemore. Gross is tearing it up so far. All the details are on Baseball America's website.

Gerry - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#87417) #

http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00001021.shtml
Gabe Gross has been added to the "Team USA" ballclub currently running a swath through the Arizona Fall League

Gross was an original selection to the team back in September. See post #14 from the link.

_SteveZ - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#87418) #

Gross wasn't doing much at actually until the last two games, in which he's been an offensive machine. The only other Jay making an implact in the AFL of late has been DeJong, who's slowly bringing that ERA down. He pitched an inning of shutout relief the other day, striking out the side.
I'm going to have to temper any enthusiasm for Gross's current and future performance in the AFL and with Team USA, after prematurely joining the Hudson bandwagon in 2001 during his amazing AFL/TeamUSA campaign.

Gerry - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#87419) #

Cam Reimers has pitched well in only 2 starts.

_SteveZ - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#87420) #

I think I'll preview my comments next time!

Mike Green - Thursday, October 23 2003 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#87421) #

In the AFL, the Javelinas defeated Team USA yesterday 6-1. Russ Adams doubled and tripled, and Ty Godwin and Dominic Rich made contributions as well. Gabe Gross hit cleanup in the powerful Team USA lineup and went 0-4, after having 4 hits on Tuesday.

_SteveZ - Thursday, October 23 2003 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#87422) #

And Quiroz, our favourite "eaglet," continues to prey on Venezuelan League pitching, raising his average to .413 after a 3-4 performance yesterday:

http://www.lvbp.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=393

Does anyone have a full listing of all the Jays playing in the various winter leagues, and the various teams they're on?

Mike Green - Monday, October 27 2003 @ 04:26 PM EST (#87423) #

After a succesful Arizona trip, Gabe Gross has been named to Team USA according to Baseball America.

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