Part 1 of the Mike Wilner Interview
Part 2 of the Mike Wilner Interview
Mike Wilner, one of the voices of the Blue Jays on the cross-Canada Fan Radio Network, was kind enough to sit down with Batter's Box a few short weeks ago to share his insights into the broadcasts and the ballclub.
Last time out, we got Mike to open up regarding the Jays' managerial and coaching staff. But Mike has a lot to say about this year's players as well. A whole lot. In fact, he’s provided us with a player-by-player rundown on the most significant Blue Jay player contributions from 2003. Fasten your seatbelts; this will be quite a ride.
First, a brief word on his analytical approach. Mike is a pretty sophisticated evaluator, smart enough (a) to know what OPS is, and (b) not to put too much weight on it. "Kenny Lofton and Vernon Wells had almost the same OPS last year, and their games are completely different,” he points out. “I think on-base and slugging have to be looked at as separate entities to give a real picture. Batting average has to be mixed in there as well,” he adds, “as part of the trifecta.”
How about pitching stats? “I think strikeout-to-walk ratio is overrated,” says Mike. “If you strike out 10 guys a game, but walk 5, you're probably not as effective as a guy who strikes out 6 but walks 3. Yet the ratios are the same.
“I firmly believe that if you had to pick one number, it would be on-base percentage for hitters, and WHIP for pitchers. To me, those are the most telling."
So now, in Mike's own words, here are .... yoooooooour 2003 Toronto Blue Jays:
The pitchers
Roy Halladay
“Roy has continued his ascent to the upper echelon of major-league starters and as I write this, should be the favourite to win the AL Cy Young Award (ERA almost a run higher than Loaiza, but he's faced .550+ clubs 14 times to Loaiza's 5, and he's faced .450- clubs just 6 times to Loaiza's 11, as of 9/9). He has become a true ace, and will remain in Toronto as long as the Jays can afford to keep him. Hopefully, he signs a three-year contract in the off-season.”
Kelvim Escobar
“Still hasn't quite gotten over the good Kelvim/evil Kelvim thing, but has been a lot more reliable since moving into the rotation. At his best, he's 1-A with Halladay, but his best doesn't come to the park too often. Would be a solid second starter for the Jays in 2004, but the team doesn't have the financial resources to compete with the big spenders, at least one of whom will give Escobar a four-year offer in the $30M neighbourhood, a place where the Jays absolutely will not go.”
Mark Hendrickson
“Despite the fact that he has a chance to be a 10-game winner as a rookie, I'm not particularly impressed. We've seen glimpses of greatness, but too many mediocre to poor outings. It's important to bear in mind that even though he's older and a polished pro athlete, he's still a rookie with minimal baseball experience, let alone major-league experience. I see him as a solid, unspectacular 4th or 5th starter who could really emerge well down the road.”
Josh Towers
“I'm a little afraid of a fly-ball pitcher at the Dome, but I love this guy's attitude. He's a real bulldog, and it doesn't take much for him to get his back up. [This was to be prophetic... Mike said this about two weeks before Towers contributed a pitch behind Aubrey Huff to the tilt between the Jays and Rays.] He throws strikes, which not enough guys do, and he's proven able to go deep into games. I think he fits in well as a 4th or 5th guy next year, and we have to wait and see from there. Remember, though, this is a guy who was 0-12 last season, and can sometimes be his own worst enemy. He hurt his hand punching a dugout wall after a bad outing. I hope he keeps his edge, but tones it down a little.”
Cliff Politte
“His overall year wouldn't have been bad had he not kept quiet about the arm trouble that wound up putting him on the disabled list a month too late. I'll never understand how athletes think that 50% or worse of them is better than their potential replacement, even though they keep going out there and getting lit up or taking oh-fers. I don't believe last year was a mirage, and I have loved Politte ever since he was in the minors in the St. Louis organization. I think he can be a dependable late-inning guy in the future.”
Aquilino Lopez
“Stunning surprise. He's been the best pitcher out of the bullpen this season by leaps and bounds, and could be the closer of the future. The only thing I don't like about him are his splits. He dominates righthanded hitters, but is below-average against lefties. Given that his killer pitch is the slider and given his delivery, I feel he'll always be a guy (like Mark Eichhorn, for example) who destroys righties but who lefties light up. A guy like that can be an extremely effective reliever (and yes, it's fine to leave him in against a lefty if there's a righty coming up, he'll still get him out at least 65% of the time), but he's not the type you want as your stopper.”
Jason Kershner
“Stunning surprise. He has come almost completely out of nowhere to be a dominant lefty out of the pen. They say he doesn't have enough pitches to become a starter, but I'd love to see him given a shot at the rotation. If not, though, he, Miller, Politte and Lopez can be a hell of a bridge to whatever closer the Jays bring in in the off-season (Keith Foulke, anyone? Matt Mantei? Ugueth Urbina?)”
Trever Miller
“Stunning surprise. It's amazing that three stunners have been in the bullpen, which is where the Jays have been worst this year. Miller fits best as a lefty specialist — he and Aquilino could be a killer combo for one inning (like the Jays hoped Creek and Tam would be).”
Tanyon Sturtze
“Colossal waste of a million dollars, even though he could wind up doubling his win total of last year. A solid gamble, I guess, but one that couldn't have turned out worse. Check that, actually. Luke Prokopec was a solid gamble that turned out worse.”
The hitters
Greg Myers
“Didn't quite make the same pact with Satan that Esteban Loaiza did, but it was close. He's never had a year like this before, and never will again. Great guy to have on a team regardless. He won't be available for $800,000 again, and therefore won't be back.”
Kevin Cash
“May or may not become a major-league hitter, let alone a Blue Jay-type hitter. I believe in his defensive reputation even though he hasn't lived up to it this season, because I've seen him play up to it before, in a couple of spring trainings. Guillermo Quiroz will pass him on the depth chart within a year or two, I believe.”
Carlos Delgado
“No complaints at all. His defense has been a pleasant surprise — it's been above-average, when he used to be barely adequate afield. Playing hurt has cost him in the second half, as all the numbers are way down, but the lack of on-base threats in the top two spots in the order in July and August hurt his RBI totals as much as his lack of second-half homers. He's still getting on base like a machine. By the time he's done, probably the best Blue Jay ever, but I don't see him staying beyond next year unless he's willing to take a pay cut of at least 1/3. Don't bet on it.”
Orlando Hudson
“Defensive improvement has been amazing. He's making Alomar-type plays semi-regularly now. I'd like to see him abandon switch-hitting and see what happens; he's been abysmal as a righty for his entire big-league career. I don't see him as a major force in the Jays' future — I believe he's the one most likely to be moved in the off-season, along with one of the prospects, for pitching. Frank Catalanotto can play second until Adams or Hill is ready.”
Chris Woodward
“Disappointment. I love the guy, but even he has admitted to problems with focus and the rigours of playing every day. He was given the shot this season to prove that he could handle an everyday job, and instead proved that he couldn't, at least not this year. Those who expected him to double last season's 13 HRs and 45 RBIs given double the playing time were terribly disappointed, but nobody really thought he'd be that good, did they? I think he can be a productive major-leaguer if he gets the opportunity again next year. Remember, he was asked to play every day after not doing so for almost five years. Also, I'm willing to give anyone in his first full major-league season a mulligan.”
Mike Bordick
“Not part of the future at all, but a very key piece to this year's puzzle. I've been amazed at how a lot of the young guys (Hudson, Hinske, Woodward, Wells) just flock to him. A bona fide professional, in every sense of the word; his influence on the clubhouse has been huge, in an extremely positive way. No complaints about what he's done on the field, either — still one of the best defensive shortstops in the league (with some highlight-level defense at second as well!), along with a surprisingly solid bat.”
Eric Hinske
“Huge disappointment. Granted, he did play the first six weeks of the season with a broken hand, and then sat out five more while it healed. I'm willing to give him a mulligan on the offensive side, while being impressed as hell by the maybe 50 doubles that he'll wind up with. But his defense has been deplorable. Every throw is an adventure, and the occasional ground ball is, too. He has terrific range at third, but that is completely nullified by the fact that, given more than two seconds to get a throw off, he will either bounce it or sail it more than half the time. I wish that was an exaggeration. It's almost as though the last four months of last season were a dream. He's regressed right back to the days of Buck and Garth.”
Reed Johnson
“Stunning surprise. He came out of nowhere and doesn't look as though he's going to wind up back there. Second only to Vernon Wells as a defensive outfielder on the Jays, Johnson can handle all three outfield positions very well, and he has a gun for an arm. Miscast as a leadoff hitter, I think, because all the pieces aren't there. He doesn't walk enough, though he makes up for some of that by being a human pin cushion, and he's proven to be a streaky hitter. I still think he's best suited to be the Jays' 4th outfielder for a long time to come.”
Vernon Wells
“Superstar. Will take the mantle of ‘Best Blue Jay Ever’ from Carlos Delgado. The guy can do it all. Gold Glove defense and a tremendous bat. Doesn't walk enough, but neither would you, if you had Carlos Delgado hitting behind you. The best part about Vernon is the fact that he's always having a great time out there. Say what you will about Delgado's smile — to me, Vernon is the one who truly enjoys what he's doing, all the time. From cutting off Catalanotto in the gap to make a catch right in front of him earlier in the season just for the hell of it, to putting a pair of ‘Bubba’ teeth in his back pocket and sticking them in when he got to second base to tease his former roommate Michael Young, to the high-fives he gives his fellow outfielders after they make a great catch, Vernon (though he doesn't always show it to the media) seems to just be a little kid out there, loving every minute of it. And he's unbelievable.”
Bobby Kielty
“I still think he's going to be a big piece down the road, despite the fact that he's been disappointing since that first week after coming over from the Twins. He hasn't hit (or walked) nearly as much as the Jays expected him to, and he's been a big bust from the left side. But last year, he had a .405 OBP as a lefty, so we know it's there. His defensive play, while better than Shannon Stewart's, has been suspect at times. He tends to occasionally take very odd routes to the ball. I think he's still a work in progress, but again, he hasn't had a full season as an everyday major leaguer yet. I see him as the 2 hitter of the future, and a very good one.”
Josh Phelps
“Love him. A tremendous talent as a hitter, and I was very outspoken about the way he was handled earlier in the year. When the Jays went to Cincinnati and St. Louis for their interleague series, they lost the DH, so no Phelps, and then when they got back, it was as though Carlos Tosca just forgot about him.
“Remember, Phelps didn't get hurt until early July. I think that Tosca (who is at heart, a small-ball guy) was just so enamoured of all the little things that Reed Johnson can do that he felt as though he had to have him in the lineup every day. He also often felt that Greg Myers needed to get at-bats at DH, since he was having such a good year. You can almost see the logic in that — almost — but giving Tom Wilson and Dave Berg starts at first over Phelps? Ridiculous.
“At the time of his ‘benching,’ Phelps had a better on-base percentage than Wells or Catalanotto, but he strikes out too much and the power wasn't there early in the season. I'd love to see what kind of year he would have had with 500 at-bats Let's get this straight — Josh Phelps may well set a new single-season strikeout record before he's done. He'll also have a 50-homer season. I don't care if you strike out 200 times if you also hit .280 with a .380 on-base and 40 homers. This ain't Alex Gonzalez we're talking about.”
Thanks, Mike. Come back to Da Box anytime, and we'll be listening through the playoffs.
Part 2 of the Mike Wilner Interview
Mike Wilner, one of the voices of the Blue Jays on the cross-Canada Fan Radio Network, was kind enough to sit down with Batter's Box a few short weeks ago to share his insights into the broadcasts and the ballclub.
Last time out, we got Mike to open up regarding the Jays' managerial and coaching staff. But Mike has a lot to say about this year's players as well. A whole lot. In fact, he’s provided us with a player-by-player rundown on the most significant Blue Jay player contributions from 2003. Fasten your seatbelts; this will be quite a ride.
First, a brief word on his analytical approach. Mike is a pretty sophisticated evaluator, smart enough (a) to know what OPS is, and (b) not to put too much weight on it. "Kenny Lofton and Vernon Wells had almost the same OPS last year, and their games are completely different,” he points out. “I think on-base and slugging have to be looked at as separate entities to give a real picture. Batting average has to be mixed in there as well,” he adds, “as part of the trifecta.”
How about pitching stats? “I think strikeout-to-walk ratio is overrated,” says Mike. “If you strike out 10 guys a game, but walk 5, you're probably not as effective as a guy who strikes out 6 but walks 3. Yet the ratios are the same.
“I firmly believe that if you had to pick one number, it would be on-base percentage for hitters, and WHIP for pitchers. To me, those are the most telling."
So now, in Mike's own words, here are .... yoooooooour 2003 Toronto Blue Jays:
The pitchers
Roy Halladay
“Roy has continued his ascent to the upper echelon of major-league starters and as I write this, should be the favourite to win the AL Cy Young Award (ERA almost a run higher than Loaiza, but he's faced .550+ clubs 14 times to Loaiza's 5, and he's faced .450- clubs just 6 times to Loaiza's 11, as of 9/9). He has become a true ace, and will remain in Toronto as long as the Jays can afford to keep him. Hopefully, he signs a three-year contract in the off-season.”
Kelvim Escobar
“Still hasn't quite gotten over the good Kelvim/evil Kelvim thing, but has been a lot more reliable since moving into the rotation. At his best, he's 1-A with Halladay, but his best doesn't come to the park too often. Would be a solid second starter for the Jays in 2004, but the team doesn't have the financial resources to compete with the big spenders, at least one of whom will give Escobar a four-year offer in the $30M neighbourhood, a place where the Jays absolutely will not go.”
Mark Hendrickson
“Despite the fact that he has a chance to be a 10-game winner as a rookie, I'm not particularly impressed. We've seen glimpses of greatness, but too many mediocre to poor outings. It's important to bear in mind that even though he's older and a polished pro athlete, he's still a rookie with minimal baseball experience, let alone major-league experience. I see him as a solid, unspectacular 4th or 5th starter who could really emerge well down the road.”
Josh Towers
“I'm a little afraid of a fly-ball pitcher at the Dome, but I love this guy's attitude. He's a real bulldog, and it doesn't take much for him to get his back up. [This was to be prophetic... Mike said this about two weeks before Towers contributed a pitch behind Aubrey Huff to the tilt between the Jays and Rays.] He throws strikes, which not enough guys do, and he's proven able to go deep into games. I think he fits in well as a 4th or 5th guy next year, and we have to wait and see from there. Remember, though, this is a guy who was 0-12 last season, and can sometimes be his own worst enemy. He hurt his hand punching a dugout wall after a bad outing. I hope he keeps his edge, but tones it down a little.”
Cliff Politte
“His overall year wouldn't have been bad had he not kept quiet about the arm trouble that wound up putting him on the disabled list a month too late. I'll never understand how athletes think that 50% or worse of them is better than their potential replacement, even though they keep going out there and getting lit up or taking oh-fers. I don't believe last year was a mirage, and I have loved Politte ever since he was in the minors in the St. Louis organization. I think he can be a dependable late-inning guy in the future.”
Aquilino Lopez
“Stunning surprise. He's been the best pitcher out of the bullpen this season by leaps and bounds, and could be the closer of the future. The only thing I don't like about him are his splits. He dominates righthanded hitters, but is below-average against lefties. Given that his killer pitch is the slider and given his delivery, I feel he'll always be a guy (like Mark Eichhorn, for example) who destroys righties but who lefties light up. A guy like that can be an extremely effective reliever (and yes, it's fine to leave him in against a lefty if there's a righty coming up, he'll still get him out at least 65% of the time), but he's not the type you want as your stopper.”
Jason Kershner
“Stunning surprise. He has come almost completely out of nowhere to be a dominant lefty out of the pen. They say he doesn't have enough pitches to become a starter, but I'd love to see him given a shot at the rotation. If not, though, he, Miller, Politte and Lopez can be a hell of a bridge to whatever closer the Jays bring in in the off-season (Keith Foulke, anyone? Matt Mantei? Ugueth Urbina?)”
Trever Miller
“Stunning surprise. It's amazing that three stunners have been in the bullpen, which is where the Jays have been worst this year. Miller fits best as a lefty specialist — he and Aquilino could be a killer combo for one inning (like the Jays hoped Creek and Tam would be).”
Tanyon Sturtze
“Colossal waste of a million dollars, even though he could wind up doubling his win total of last year. A solid gamble, I guess, but one that couldn't have turned out worse. Check that, actually. Luke Prokopec was a solid gamble that turned out worse.”
The hitters
Greg Myers
“Didn't quite make the same pact with Satan that Esteban Loaiza did, but it was close. He's never had a year like this before, and never will again. Great guy to have on a team regardless. He won't be available for $800,000 again, and therefore won't be back.”
Kevin Cash
“May or may not become a major-league hitter, let alone a Blue Jay-type hitter. I believe in his defensive reputation even though he hasn't lived up to it this season, because I've seen him play up to it before, in a couple of spring trainings. Guillermo Quiroz will pass him on the depth chart within a year or two, I believe.”
Carlos Delgado
“No complaints at all. His defense has been a pleasant surprise — it's been above-average, when he used to be barely adequate afield. Playing hurt has cost him in the second half, as all the numbers are way down, but the lack of on-base threats in the top two spots in the order in July and August hurt his RBI totals as much as his lack of second-half homers. He's still getting on base like a machine. By the time he's done, probably the best Blue Jay ever, but I don't see him staying beyond next year unless he's willing to take a pay cut of at least 1/3. Don't bet on it.”
Orlando Hudson
“Defensive improvement has been amazing. He's making Alomar-type plays semi-regularly now. I'd like to see him abandon switch-hitting and see what happens; he's been abysmal as a righty for his entire big-league career. I don't see him as a major force in the Jays' future — I believe he's the one most likely to be moved in the off-season, along with one of the prospects, for pitching. Frank Catalanotto can play second until Adams or Hill is ready.”
Chris Woodward
“Disappointment. I love the guy, but even he has admitted to problems with focus and the rigours of playing every day. He was given the shot this season to prove that he could handle an everyday job, and instead proved that he couldn't, at least not this year. Those who expected him to double last season's 13 HRs and 45 RBIs given double the playing time were terribly disappointed, but nobody really thought he'd be that good, did they? I think he can be a productive major-leaguer if he gets the opportunity again next year. Remember, he was asked to play every day after not doing so for almost five years. Also, I'm willing to give anyone in his first full major-league season a mulligan.”
Mike Bordick
“Not part of the future at all, but a very key piece to this year's puzzle. I've been amazed at how a lot of the young guys (Hudson, Hinske, Woodward, Wells) just flock to him. A bona fide professional, in every sense of the word; his influence on the clubhouse has been huge, in an extremely positive way. No complaints about what he's done on the field, either — still one of the best defensive shortstops in the league (with some highlight-level defense at second as well!), along with a surprisingly solid bat.”
Eric Hinske
“Huge disappointment. Granted, he did play the first six weeks of the season with a broken hand, and then sat out five more while it healed. I'm willing to give him a mulligan on the offensive side, while being impressed as hell by the maybe 50 doubles that he'll wind up with. But his defense has been deplorable. Every throw is an adventure, and the occasional ground ball is, too. He has terrific range at third, but that is completely nullified by the fact that, given more than two seconds to get a throw off, he will either bounce it or sail it more than half the time. I wish that was an exaggeration. It's almost as though the last four months of last season were a dream. He's regressed right back to the days of Buck and Garth.”
Reed Johnson
“Stunning surprise. He came out of nowhere and doesn't look as though he's going to wind up back there. Second only to Vernon Wells as a defensive outfielder on the Jays, Johnson can handle all three outfield positions very well, and he has a gun for an arm. Miscast as a leadoff hitter, I think, because all the pieces aren't there. He doesn't walk enough, though he makes up for some of that by being a human pin cushion, and he's proven to be a streaky hitter. I still think he's best suited to be the Jays' 4th outfielder for a long time to come.”
Vernon Wells
“Superstar. Will take the mantle of ‘Best Blue Jay Ever’ from Carlos Delgado. The guy can do it all. Gold Glove defense and a tremendous bat. Doesn't walk enough, but neither would you, if you had Carlos Delgado hitting behind you. The best part about Vernon is the fact that he's always having a great time out there. Say what you will about Delgado's smile — to me, Vernon is the one who truly enjoys what he's doing, all the time. From cutting off Catalanotto in the gap to make a catch right in front of him earlier in the season just for the hell of it, to putting a pair of ‘Bubba’ teeth in his back pocket and sticking them in when he got to second base to tease his former roommate Michael Young, to the high-fives he gives his fellow outfielders after they make a great catch, Vernon (though he doesn't always show it to the media) seems to just be a little kid out there, loving every minute of it. And he's unbelievable.”
Bobby Kielty
“I still think he's going to be a big piece down the road, despite the fact that he's been disappointing since that first week after coming over from the Twins. He hasn't hit (or walked) nearly as much as the Jays expected him to, and he's been a big bust from the left side. But last year, he had a .405 OBP as a lefty, so we know it's there. His defensive play, while better than Shannon Stewart's, has been suspect at times. He tends to occasionally take very odd routes to the ball. I think he's still a work in progress, but again, he hasn't had a full season as an everyday major leaguer yet. I see him as the 2 hitter of the future, and a very good one.”
Josh Phelps
“Love him. A tremendous talent as a hitter, and I was very outspoken about the way he was handled earlier in the year. When the Jays went to Cincinnati and St. Louis for their interleague series, they lost the DH, so no Phelps, and then when they got back, it was as though Carlos Tosca just forgot about him.
“Remember, Phelps didn't get hurt until early July. I think that Tosca (who is at heart, a small-ball guy) was just so enamoured of all the little things that Reed Johnson can do that he felt as though he had to have him in the lineup every day. He also often felt that Greg Myers needed to get at-bats at DH, since he was having such a good year. You can almost see the logic in that — almost — but giving Tom Wilson and Dave Berg starts at first over Phelps? Ridiculous.
“At the time of his ‘benching,’ Phelps had a better on-base percentage than Wells or Catalanotto, but he strikes out too much and the power wasn't there early in the season. I'd love to see what kind of year he would have had with 500 at-bats Let's get this straight — Josh Phelps may well set a new single-season strikeout record before he's done. He'll also have a 50-homer season. I don't care if you strike out 200 times if you also hit .280 with a .380 on-base and 40 homers. This ain't Alex Gonzalez we're talking about.”
Thanks, Mike. Come back to Da Box anytime, and we'll be listening through the playoffs.
