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Boston at Oakland, 8:00 PM ET (Game 5)

First, let me commend Robert, whose playoff work to date has been terrific, but I thought I would lead the game thread tonight, though I will be too nervous and involved with the game to comment on it while it is in progress. I’ll leave the various pre-game machinations and statistical innuendo to ESPN.com and other sites, and instead I will ask one question: Just what is at stake here, as the A’s try—for a ninth time—to close out an ALDS? In short, everything.

OK. Maybe that’s hyperbolic. But this is an absolutely critical game for the A’s, for more than the obvious must-win-to-advance scenario. If they manage to lose this series—during which they have, quite frankly, played some seriously bad baseball—it will be awfully difficult to dismiss four straight opening round losses as simply being bad luck. Has there been some dumb luck the last four seasons? Of course. This year alone the A’s lost Mark Mulder, they lost Tim Hudson, and Jose Guillen is playing with half a wrist. But I don’t know if Mark Mulder could have done much to prevent Jeremy Giambi’s spirit from possessing Eric Byrnes and Miguel Tejada during those abominable base-running gaffes. No matter whether Tejada was obstructed or not, there is no excuse for him not running the play all the way through. I don’t know if Tim Hudson could do much to persuade Eric Chavez or Miguel Tejada to quit trying to pull every pitch or to take a strike now and then. Erubiel Durazo, one of the most patient hitters in the game, nonetheless hacked at the first pitch from Scott Williamson in the top of the ninth inning Sunday, popping out meekly to third. Bad luck? No. Bad base-running, attempting to do too much at the plate, or moving away from what you know and preach are not products of bad luck. What they are products of is unclear. If I knew, I would dispatch the info to the A’s right away.

We all know luck, or lack thereof, is a factor: the fat slider missed by a millimeter and fouled off the screen; a deep drive to the warning track brought back by the wind; the injury suffered late in the season to key players (see Mulder, Mark). But all teams are subject to the cruel demon known as random chance: the Marlins did not have one of their best hitters—Mike Lowell—but still managed to defeat the Giants, thanks in part to Barry Bonds not getting a chance to hit (a different subject altogether)—but also in larger part to some seriously bad baseball played by the Giants.

The Red Sox are a terrific, if flawed, team and they deserve credit for not quitting and for forcing this final game. But they are professionals; should we not expect every team to play hard to the end? (I could mention the listless/choking Braves here, but I will save that for another time.) So if Boston wins tonight, kudos to them, and good luck versus the Yankees. We must remember to give teams credit for winning a series, even—or perhaps especially so—as we acknowledge that they didn’t quite so much win as the other team lost.

And if the A’s do in fact lose tonight, I will not accept that they are victims of the system—i.e. the five-game series where anything can happen. Is luck a huge factor during four losses in a row in games when they can clinch the series? Sure. Five? OK, but getting a bit iffy. Six? I’ll allow it, but barely. Seven? Hmmm. Eight? No chance. And nine? Sorry, but that’s not bad luck. That’s simply not getting it done when you need to.

And if the A’s win? I don’t care how or why—I’ll just be happy.

I’ll have more after the game.
Division Series: Monday, October 6, 2003 | 86 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Shrike - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#88895) #
God job with the italics! ;)

Enjoy the game, John. Personally, I have to root for Pedro Martinez. I have no favoritism for either team, but I've been a huge Pedro fan ever since he first excelled with the Expos. I always cheer for ex-Spos in the playoffs, which is one reason I'm more than a little miffed that the Giants blew it vs. the Marlins.
robertdudek - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#88896) #
Great into, Gitz!
_Lefty - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#88897) #
Other than the Jays being in the playoffs I,

1)always cheer for the westcoast based team in ALCS or playoff,
2)always cheer for the American League team in WS

This time however I am cheering for the Bo-Sox. Nothing would be sweeter than a Sox win over the Yanks for the ALCS. Even if the percentages are slim at the moment, I've still got to hope for the set-up and that means the Redsox tonite.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#88898) #
Much is being made in some quarters about the matchup between two Cy Young winners. I don't think the pitchers' duel will materialize. Zito is bucking the "short rest" odds, and Martinez, who battled without his best stuff in Game One, is coming off an unusually high pitch count. Pedro is 4-1 with a 1.45 ERA in six regular-season starts at the Coliseum, but that loss occurred just two months ago, when the patient A's made him throw 101 pitches in five innings.

If it does come down to the bullpens, lesser lights like Bradford and Timlin may have to shine. Kim is unavailable (it's a shoulder problem, we're told) and Foulke might be out of gas.

Jays fans should be thrilled that our team is on the right track. Despite the budget disparities, the three remaining AL teams are built on the same principles, and it's a shame one of them has to lose tonight. It should be a classic; let's hope it's not decided by another brain cramp.
_Shrike - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#88899) #
The A's are going to have a really tough time of it vs. Pedro tonight if his economy of pitches in the first inning continues throughout the next few frames. Chavez and Durazo were overmatched by Martinez's control in their first at-bats.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#88900) #
Both pitchers worked fast and threw strikes in the first. Home plate ump Tim Welke gave Pedro a generous amount of "black" on the outside corner against Chavez. After those first two pitches, Varitek set up a foot outside, and Eric, obviously feeling he had to protect out there, chased the third strike.

Welke has been equally generous with Zito, giving him the ankle-high "strike" with his curveball. It's not quite Eric Gregg giving Livan Hernandez a 30-inch wide plate, but so far, it looks like a tough night to be a hitter.
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#88901) #
http://economics.about.com
I've been having trouble connecting to site. Is BBox having technical problems or do I have to yell at my ISP?

Or is Coach banning my IP for my pro-umpire, anti-player stance. :)

I'm listening to the game on the radio... as much as I disliked having Buck manage the Jays, he really is a great colour guy.

Mike
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#88902) #
Mike, I think we had a server hiccup sometime between 7:30 and 8:00.

I'm not anti-umpire; I just hate it when they ruin perfectly good games. Jerks like Phil Cuzzi and Kerwin Danley don't deserve to work at this level, because they're as arrogant as they are incompetent. Welke seems to be equally generous for both pitchers, so he's not affecting the outcome, but between the big zone, the glare and the shadows, it's shaping up as a quick, low-scoring affair.
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#88903) #
http://economics.about.com
I'm not anti-umpire; I just hate it when they ruin perfectly good games. Jerks like Phil Cuzzi and Kerwin Danley don't deserve to work at this level, because they're as arrogant as they are incompetent.

I agree, and I think I was as critical as anyone on Cuzzi. My musician friends are probably more critical of other musicians than the general population would be. I think the same thing is true with umps. If an ump makes a habit of screwing up, it makes all umps look bad, and we'll be the first to jump all over him.

The big problem with MLB umpiring, as with academia, is the tenure system. Too many guys still have a job because they had the job last year.

Mike
_A - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#88904) #
Did this thing start at 8? They're through 4 and it's only 9pm. This is an outstanding pace!
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#88905) #
The more I watch Welke, it seems like he's not extending the plate on the first base side, only on the third base side. As a result, the pitchers have less margin for error against righty batters, but they have lefty hitters pretty much at their mercy. As long as he's consistent, and the strike zone stays the same throughout, I'll have no complaints.

Sometimes, in unusual circumstances, the first team to adjust will win. Right now, it looks like neither pitcher is going to have to use the middle of the plate, so playing for two walks and a three-run homer might not work. I'd be trying to scratch out a run, so I thought the Damon steal was a great call.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#88906) #
Ramon Hernandez clearly thinks Manny Ramirez is peeking, or at least listening for where he sets up. On the two-strike pitch, he made quite a show of reaching his right leg inside as a decoy, then jumped outside at the last minute. Manny, geared for something inside, waved pathetically at a wide one.
_A - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#88907) #
Walk=Run and A's take the lead.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#88908) #
First blood -- Pedro was falling behind hitters in the fourth, walked Hatteberg and gave up an RBI double to Guillen, who was thrown out at third. Again.
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#88909) #
http://economics.about.com
First blood -- Pedro was falling behind hitters in the fourth, walked Hatteberg and gave up an RBI double to Guillen, who was thrown out at third. Again.

Is there anywhere you can get stats on how many times a year each team gets thrown out trying to take the extra base? Do the A's get thrown out at third this much in the regular season?

Mike
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#88910) #
If Millar didn't dog it two-thirds of the way to first, he's in there with a double instead of getting thrown out by ten feet. Sad.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#88911) #
Zito fell behind Varitek 3-0, but battled back to a full count; Jason jumped all over the fastball and it's all tied up.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#88912) #
Fatigue? Zito's taking a lot more time between pitches, and the curve is bouncing. Another full count, Damon walks, and Rick Peterson comes out to discuss it. Nomar had a good hack at the first one, then popped foul for the first out. Damon should be running again.
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#88913) #
http://economics.about.com
It's funny.. normally with the Red Sox playing in a deciding game, I'd be waiting to see how they'd blow it. But all this game I've just been waiting for the A's to implode.

I like watching the market at Trade Sports to see how an event like a home run effects the probability of a team winning. The Bo Sox went from 40 to 60% after the home run. To be honest, I'm surprised they're that low.

Mike
_Shrike - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#88914) #
Zito's pitch count had been slightly more efficient than Pedro's. Somewhat odd that he'd tire more quickly. Not having expert knowledge, I'd be curious to know whether the wicked curve Zito throws so often could be more taxing than Martinez's assortment of harder pitches.
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#88915) #
http://economics.about.com
Up to 68% with the HBP.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#88916) #
Barry, worried about the runner, hit Walker. Then he bounced another one to Ramirez. Manny didn't miss the first 2-2 fastball by much, and crushed the next one. 4-1 BoSox.
_A - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#88917) #
Not familliar with "Trade Sports", a brief explanation?
Mike D - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#88918) #
I'm beginning to come around to Chuck's point of view on the insufferability of Red Sox Nation. Let's go, Oakland!

(But I'm pulling for Boston in the ALCS, if applicable.)
_R Billie - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#88919) #
I'm not sure exactly what was going through Barry Zito's mind there. It's one thing to groove a 3-2 fastball to Jason Varitek...but to Manny Ramirez? After he just fouled the last one straight back and hasn't touched your curveball all day? I just don't understand the pitch selection. You cannot ever let Manny be the guy that beats you.
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#88920) #
http://economics.about.com
Not familliar with "Trade Sports", a brief explanation?

It's a futures market where you buy contingent contracts. One contract of the Red Sox was selling for 60 cents. If the Sox win the game, your contract pays a dollar. If they lose, it pays nothing.

The really nice thing about contingent contracts is that they give you a probability of an event occuring. They're also usually more accurate than forecasting systems because they contain the collective information of all the traders in the market.

The website is at www.tradesports.com. I don't actually participate in the market because I think their transaction costs are too high.

After the homer, the market has settled at around 87 for the Sox.

Mike
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#88921) #
Shrike, this was the first time in Zito's career he worked on short rest. These guys are creatures of habit (except for Roy Halladay, who is probably a cyborg) and there's a lot of psychological stuff at work, not just pitch count. Carrying the team on your back is a lot of pressure, and even he didn't know how long he would last, so an element of doubt crept in. It was a great performance, but you could tell early in the inning; Barry hit the wall.
_Scott Lucas - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#88922) #
It'll be interesting to see what the A's do with Durazo. I'd guess they'll let him hit again even though he's gimpy, then pull him for a PR if he reaches base. Depnds on who's pitching, I suppose.
_Grimlock - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#88923) #
The Sox are bush-league hot dogs. LI-L-L-Y on their jackets; Ramirez' HR trot (it's only the 6th inning Manny!), Pedro's big mouth. The stupid "Cowboy Up!" gimmick. Should Oakland lose, go Yankees.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#88924) #
The A's get one back, as Durazo doubles (though he appeared to pull up lame) and Tejada, belatedly joining the party, cashed him in. Pedro is human, too, and Grady has a tough decision to make about how long to leave him in. Shaping up as a great finish; there's no quit in either team.
_Jacko - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#88925) #
Wow, Macha brought Lilly in. Ballsy.

He looks sharp so far -- given that he pitched 48 hours ago, how long can they leave him in for?

Also, given that Foulke/Bradford/Rincon are pretty well gassed, who comes to pitch the 9th? Halama?
Lucas - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#88926) #
Also, given that Foulke/Bradford/Rincon are pretty well gassed, who comes to pitch the 9th? Halama?

You just ruined Gitz's dinner.
_Jacko - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#88927) #

The A's get one back, as Durazo doubles (though he appeared to pull up lame) and Tejada, belatedly joining the party, cashed him in. Pedro is human, too, and Grady has a tough decision to make about how long to leave him in. Shaping up as a great finish; there's no quit in either team.


Looked like Durazo pulled something running down to 2B. However, he did manage to score on Tejada's hit (which somehow made it to the wall -- are Nixon and Damon that slow???)

I thought the A's were done after Pedro froze Ellis for strike three with a wicked curve ball to start the inning. Too bad Hatteberg could not bring Tejada home.

And why are the A's swinging so early in the bottom of the 7th? They should be working Pedro deep into counts, trying to get him out of the game. Easier said than done, but the man is tiring, and his control and is slipping a little.

Yow, Damon and Jackson just killed each other...
_A - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#88928) #
Why is Dye even trying to take second on a play like that? Down by 2, a runner at second is far less important than having a runner on base.

Couldn't see the play but two players coliding is never a pretty picture.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#88929) #
Wow. Damon really got the worst of it, and could have a concussion or other serious injury. It was a relief to see him wave as they put him in the ambulance.

Why is Dye even trying to take second on a play like that?

It's a contagious disease: trying-to-do-too-much-itis. Guillen making the first and third outs of different innings at third base in the same series is another symptom.
_Grimlock - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#88930) #
Is it me or is David Ortiz one UGLY mother?
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#88931) #
Maybe when you are used to playing with Todd Walker, you don't expect a second baseman to have that kind of range, but Damon never called for that ball, so you can't blame Jackson for making the play on it.

Tying run to the plate. When do you give Pedro the hook?
_Jacko - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#88932) #
Pedro looked gassed _before_ the start of the 8th.
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#88933) #
http://economics.about.com
Down to 67%. If I were on Trade Sports, I'd be betting heavy on the Sox right now.

Mike
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#88934) #
Huge emotional lift for the A's to get into the Boston bullpen, but they haven't capitalized yet. Embree threw some serious cheese past Durazo before popping him up to third, and got Chavez to loft a harmless fly to Ramirez. Now it's Timlin, who was brilliant in his latest, against Tejada. The at-bat of the series.
_Jacko - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#88935) #
Why do Durazo and Chavez bat back to back in the A's lineup? As Embree just demonstrated, they are both utterly helpless against lefties.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#88936) #
Fastball called strike, foul ball on a cookie, waste one low and away, feeble grounder to short. Sorry, Miguel.

If I'm Grady Little, I leave Timlin in for the ninth and have Williamson standing by.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#88937) #
Manny is absolutely helpless against Bradford. I agree with what R Billie said earlier -- Hernandez and Zito not throwing a 2-2 curve to Ramirez in the sixth, after he had ripped the heater straight back, was the dumbest of all the dumb things the A's have done this series.
_A - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#88938) #
I like Buck Martinez's observation of the first base umpire. He noted that after confirming the appeal and effectively striking out Ramirez, he ignored the body language of Ramirez and looked to the outfield. Any MLB umpires that read this site should take note of this action (or lack thereof), too many forget that their role isn't to protect any honour they supposedly have.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#88939) #
By pulling Timlin, Little has opened the door, and has nobody to close it...
_A - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#88940) #
Tying runner's on!
_A - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#88941) #
Coach, apparently Lowe and Sauerbeck (sp?) are up in the 'pen...Do either of them count for someone to close it? I think not.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#88942) #
Lowe can get a ground ball, so if Williamson walks Guillen, they have no choice.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#88943) #
Has a manager ever been fired in the middle of a game?
_Wildrose - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#88944) #
Do you bunt?
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#88945) #
Timlin retired ten in a row over his last two appearances, and got the MVP easily. Why in the world would you take the ball from him?
Mike D - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#88946) #
Take a strike. Bunt if you go 0-1.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#88947) #
Do you bunt?

For sure. Now, they have to issue an IBB to put the DP on.
_A - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#88948) #
Bunt again?...Even after an IBB?
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#88949) #
http://economics.about.com
For sure. Now, they have to issue an IBB to put the DP on.

Yeah. Even Earl Weaver would bunt in that situation. See Game 1 of the 1979 ALCS in Weaver on Strategy.

Mike
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#88950) #
I don't get it. I guess they're pitching around Melhuse, hoping he strikes himself out.
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#88951) #
With Terrence Long on deck and a base open, I'm not challenging Singleton on 3-2. What a finish!
_A - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#88952) #
Red Sox Win!
_Shrike - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#88953) #
Sorry Gitz.

You know how to reach me if you want to vent.
_Wildrose - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#88954) #
Great series! Maybe its time to wonder if the A's are hexed ...curse of the Giambino?
_StephenT - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#88955) #
The A's losing streak in situation C really is just bad luck -- a classic case of a hypothesis suggested by the data. For predictive purposes it's as meaningless as when Randy Johnson lost a record seven playoff games in a row.
_Jacko - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#88956) #
_Great_ pitching by Lowe to seal the deal.

With the infield playing back, I was half expecting Long to lay down a bunt like Ramon Hernandez in Game 1.

A few questions:

1. Why hasn't Lowe eaten up lefties all year long with that cut fastball?

2. Replaced by Melhuse? Jermaine Dye must be pissed.

I really wanted Oakland to win, but Boston will be easy to cheer for against New York.
Mike D - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#88957) #
Wildrose, they lost with Giambi too. The fact is, unless you have a '93-Jays-type lineup, you need offensive depth in a postseason series. Being the "unfair game" that Michael Lewis describes, depth is what the A's sadly cannot afford. Hence T-Long, hitting for McMillon, hitting for Ellis, with the season on the line.

Having said that, J.P. beat Beane to some pretty damn good, and cheap, offensive talent this year...
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#88958) #
Those were two spectacular pitches by Lowe. Melhuse thought the same thing I did -- they wouldn't throw him a strike -- and that tailing two-seamer froze him. To nobody's surprise, T-Long was caught looking on the very same pitch.

Call me crazy, but I like the Red Sox and the Cubs. I wouldn't bet on either of them winning the first game, but if Pedro and Wood can pitch the third (or fourth) and seventh games, anything's possible.
Mike D - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#88959) #
StephenT, would you bet on the A's if they did this game over again? "Luck" is not a synonym for "not much hitting."

Anyway, with Oakland's injuries, Boston's the club with the best shot of beating New York. And except for Mick, isn't that what we all are really after?

Let's Go Cubs!
robertdudek - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#88960) #
The Cubs ought to be prohibitive favourites in the NLCS. Prior and Wood could start 4 games, 2 going to Zambrano and 1 to Clement. They've got the HFA too. If the Fish don't win the first game it will probably be a short series.
Mike D - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#88961) #
I want to start a letter-writing campaign to extend this series to a best-of-7. Who's with me?
_Andrew Edwards - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#88962) #
What a game. Wow. Too bad the A's lost, but at least pundits can't spend hte next week talking about 'pitching and defence'.

Incidentally, was it not insane to pitch to Melhuse? Worked out and all, but setting up a double play with Lowe on the mound is usually a good idea, and it's not like the runner on first meant anything. Either the runner on third scores, or he doesn't. Nothing else really mattered.
_Wildrose - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#88963) #
Curse of Prieto?
Coach - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#88964) #
I want to start a letter-writing campaign to extend this series to a best-of-7. Who's with me?

Can we make the regular season 154 games, with a balanced schedule and no interleague play while we're at it? There would even be time to have an extra wild-card team and play a little mini-series so the division winners would have a bigger first-round advantage.
_Ryan - Monday, October 06 2003 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#88965) #
If there's a bright side from Oakland's standpoint, it's the fact that the A's still have another 70 years to go before they match Boston's ineptitude.
_StephenT - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#88966) #
I like the best-of-5 format (go through the rotation once with a lot riding on each game). I'd prefer 2-3 to 2-2-1 (and give the higher-seed team their choice of where to start).

Mike, would you bet the A's will lose their next 4 playoff series? With 9 chances to clinch? Personally, I was in suspense for all of their past 4 series.
_Jacko - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 12:07 AM EDT (#88967) #

Incidentally, was it not insane to pitch to Melhuse? Worked out and all, but setting up a double play with Lowe on the mound is usually a good idea, and it's not like the runner on first meant anything. Either the runner on third scores, or he doesn't. Nothing else really mattered.


Well, except for the guy on second, who was the winning run.

If they had gone by the book, and walked Melhuse intentionally, what would have happened if Lowe ended up walking Singleton? 4-4, bases loaded, and 1 out. Safety squeeze, A's win.

Grady was betting against a ducksnort line drive (like Luis Gonzalez against Rivera in the WS) or a ground ball finding a hole. It's hard to get the ball in the air against Lowe, and neither batter they pitched to managed to hit the ball. The gamble paid off.

The announcers correctly noted that Little was not interested in going to extra innings, and was not prepared to concede the tying run, at the risk of giving up 2 to lose the game.

Really ballsy managing by Little, and it ended up winning him the game. Though yanking Timlin for a tired Williamson almost cost him the game :)
_Jacko - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#88968) #
One last thing:

I wonder if Macha considered a suicide squeeze with Melhuse at the plate?
Mike D - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#88969) #
Mike, would you bet the A's will lose their next 4 playoff series? With 9 chances to clinch? Personally, I was in suspense for all of their past 4 series.

Depends on the odds...In all seriousness, I thought a three-game sweep by Boston was likely. It's to the Athletics' credit that they put up the fight they did.

But A's fans can't have it both ways. They got beaten, fair and square, by an apparently inferior Twins team last season, and it was macro-bad luck: none of their losses were unlucky, but anything can happen in a short series. This year, they stretched an apparently superior Red Sox team to the limit, and it's micro-bad luck: they were unlucky to lose the individual games they lost.

Yeah, Mulder and Hudson got hurt. Bad luck, I agree. But the A's pitching and fitness regimens have been taken the credit -- as opposed to "good luck" -- for their tremendous run of good health in recent years.

Personally, I believe that the A's had too little pitching at the start of their amazing run, and now have too little hitting. It's not "bad luck," other than the significantly unfortunate handicap of playing in the Oakland market, that the likes of Gil Heredia, Eric Byrnes and Terrence Long are losing these key games. They're not championship-calibre ballplayers.

I feel awful kicking the A's while they're down -- this was really a great series, and their player development model is outstanding. But rather than "data suggesting the hypothesis," let's be frank: it's unfavourable outcomes begging an explanation. I truly believe that it doesn't do us much good in our search for baseball truths to write off every Oakland failure to the great unquantifiable of "luck."

And don't you agree that had the A's won back-to-back-to-back world titles in 2000-02, Billy Beane and his admirers would not be saying that playoff success was entirely about "[bleep]ing luck"?
robertdudek - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#88970) #
I am vehemently against the intentional walk with runners on 2nd and 3rd no matter how many out there are. I think you try to make great pitches and if you do you've got a good shot at getting the hitter. If you walk the bases loaded, the pressure shifts to the pitcher - not only does he have to throw strikes, but he can't pitch inside with abandon for fear of the HBP.

It really isn't easy to get a flyball or hit a grounder through a drawn-in infield when the pitcher is going for the corners.

Bringing in Williamson wasn't a good idea, but everything Little did after he took him out was correct.
robertdudek - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 12:51 AM EDT (#88971) #
Mike, would you bet the A's will lose their next 4 playoff series? With 9 chances to clinch? Personally, I was in suspense for all of their past 4 series.

I wouldn't. But I'd bet they'd win less than half. Which means that I think they have some kind of problem handling these sitautions. Game 3 in Boston was inexcusable - the kind of game the '03 Tigers might be expected to play.
Gitz - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 12:53 AM EDT (#88972) #
Well, at least I finally know why Billy Beane likes Scott Hatteberg so much: he's the only player on the team who embodies what the A's are supposedly all about. For as much as I am down on Hatteberg, I love his approach to the plate; he's Jim Thome without the power. I hope the A's keep him as a coach, if not as a manager, because he's bright, articulate, and knows the game.

But it's all bad luck the A's keep losing all these games when all it takes is one win, that's for sure. It's bad luck Erubiel Durazo swings from his heels at the first pitch when the team most need him to get on base in the 8th inning. It's bad luck Eric Chavez tried to pull EVERY pitch he saw in the series, which was roughly 25 pitches in his 22 at-bats. It's bad luck that Miguel Tejada forgot for nearly five games that he's at his best when he drives the ball to right-center field instead of, like his teammate Chavez, trying to hit every pitch out of the stadium. It's bad luck when Barry Zito forgets that his best pitch is his curveball and then he gets beat after he throws two juicy fastballs to Varitek and Ramirez. It's bad luck when the A's are continually thrown out on the basepaths when base-runners against Pedro are notoriously hard to come by -- to say nothing of the absolutely dreadful base-running from the earlier games. It's bad luck that they have kept Terrence Long on the roster for four consecutively useless years, and then, sure enough, he's the only option left for you in the ninth inning with the game on the line. It's bad luck that Derek Lowe throws two tremendous pitches with the game in the balance. It's bad luck that Ramirez and Varitek took advantage of the fat pitches and hit them out. It's bad luck that Nomar Garciappara made a smart play by backing up the outfielders, then, with two teammates -- and friends, no doubt -- possibly unconscious, throws to second to finish the play. It's bad luck that Pedro was able to take advantage of the over-eager A's -- that is to say, all of them except for Hatteberg. It's bad luck that Trot Nixon hit a game-winning home run against a 21-year-old rookie pitcher who was shelled his only other appearance at Fenway Park.

Yup. Nothing but bad luck.
Mike D - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 12:57 AM EDT (#88973) #
I agree with you completely on Hatteberg, Gitz. I gained new appreciation for his skills this series. He's a legitimate on-base freak.
robertdudek - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#88974) #
To be frank, neither team impressed me with the kind of baseball savvy - an attention to detail or what Whitey Herzog called "playing the game right" - that many championship teams possess. Among these details are flawless baserunning and solid decision making and execution on the defensive end.

The Sox' bullpen made great pitches when the games were on the line, and overcame the sloppy baserunning; Oakland's wasn't as fortunate.

The only team that has really played good "fundamental" baseball this post-season has been the Marlins. I'm certainly not saying that that's enough to win - I think the Cubs pitchers will blow them away - but when you have two evenly matched teams (as I believe the Red Sox and Yankees are) the one that makes fewer mistakes will likely win.
Craig B - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#88975) #
the one that makes fewer mistakes will likely win

I agree wholeheartedly, an what's more I think the real key to avoiding mistakes is in avoiding mistake pitches, the kind that a team like Boston feeds off. The 1-1 curveball that stays up and gets hit off the wall, the 3-2 slider that starts outside and never comes back to give up the walk.

The Yankees just didn't make any mistake pitches against the Twins after getting touched up a bit in the first game. In the last three games of the series, the Twins had four walks and three extra-base hits.
Craig B - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#88976) #
Should Oakland lose, go Yankees.

Grimlock, I couldn't agree more. And I *HATE* the damn Yankees.
_John - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#88977) #
Does anyone else think that Moe Vaughn has come back to the Sox in the uniform of David Ortiz?

John
_Rich - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#88978) #
I know Terrence Long isn't much of a hitter, but what exactly was he looking at when Lowe threw that hellacious strike three to Melhuse? I know it was a fantastic pitch, but how on earth do you get fooled by the same pitch the last hitter did with your season on the line?

As good of a job as he's done, Beane should be able to find some more outfield production on the cheap than he has.
_Jacko - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#88979) #

I know Terrence Long isn't much of a hitter, but what exactly was he looking at when Lowe threw that hellacious strike three to Melhuse? I know it was a fantastic pitch, but how on earth do you get fooled by the same pitch the last hitter did with your season on the line?


I was kinda thinking the same thing.

If they've had done their homework, they would have known Lowe throws a cutter. And with two strikes, they shouldn't have be bailing out so soon, they should have been protecting the plate. If the pitch didn't break back, maybe it would have hit them, which would have also led to a good result.

Again, this is all easier said than done. But it was painful seeing 2 guys strike out looking with the tying run 90 feet away.

Also, Chris Singleton ain't exactly the world's greatest hitter, but he managed to work a walk.
_Rich - Tuesday, October 07 2003 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#88980) #
My memory may be faulty, but how many pitches in the strike zone did either Melhuse or Long see, other than the 2 third strikes? It seems to me a lot of those sinkers were low.
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