Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Division Series: Saturday, October 4th, 2003

Division Series: Saturday, October 4th, 2003

Florida Marlins at San Francisco Giants, 1 PM ET (Game 4)

This is what I wrote earlier today:

Felipe Alou is taking the biggest gamble today - he's starting Jason Schmidt on 3 days' rest in Florida. The Giants have to win both of the next game, so the conventional thinking would have started Jerome Williams in game 4 today and saved Jason Schmidt for game 5. Two factors Alou might have considered.
1) Starting Schmidt today allows a little more flexibility in regard to the game 5 starter. It could be Williams or Ponson on 3-days rest. If whichever one he chooses struggles, he can quickly bring in the other guy.
2) He wants to maximize the edge in game 4 because he figures game 5 will be the easier one to win. The home crowd, and last at bat will help the Giants' chances in game 5. He may be worried that Jerome Williams, a rookie, will be bothered by the hostile crowd in Florida in his first post-season start.

Scratch that. The Giants will start Jerome Williams.

Jack McKeon wouldn't mind things either way. He would have had the edge against either Williams or Ponson with Josh Beckett pitching. Now, the Marlins have a better shot at winning it at home and the Florida ace will be well rested for game 1 of the NLCS.

Dontrelle Willis (2002/2003)
versus	AB	H	HR	TB	W	K	HBP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	K pct	W pct
right	515	129	12	205	48	114	3	3	3	.318	.398	.201	.085
left	88	19	1	27	10	28	0	0	0	.296	.307	.286	.102

Florida goes with another lefthander. The Giants left tons of people on base yesterday, and the Marlins will have to hope they do the same today.

San Francisco Giants versus Lefthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	W	K	SB	CS	HBP	avg	obp	slg
R Durham	245	74	16	2	4	26	38	6	1	3	.302	.376	.433
J Hammonds	109	34	6	2	3	15	23	1	1	0	.312	.395	.486
R Aurilia	228	59	13	1	10	19	33	1	1	0	.259	.316	.456
B Bonds	249	93	14	1	37	81	38	7	1	7	.373	.537	.884
E Alfonzo	227	69	13	0	8	42	19	1	1	2	.304	.417	.467
M Grissom	273	90	18	3	20	19	37	4	1	2	.330	.378	.637
JT Snow	179	54	7	0	7	17	34	0	4	2	.302	.369	.458
Y Torrealba	59	17	5	2	0	9	10	0	0	2	.288	.400	.407
pitcher

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

The Giants made some surprising choices, going with Torrealba behind the plate, Snow against a lefty, and Hammonds instead of the struggling Jose Cruz (not surprising, except that he's batting 2nd).

Jerome Williams (2002/2003)
versus	AB	H	HR	TB	W	K	HBP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	K pct	W pct
right	252	67	9	108	18	48	6	5	2	.330	.429	.174	.067
left	228	49	1	61	31	40	4	2	1	.312	.268	.154	.120

With all the great picthers starting over the last few days, only Jason Schmidt was able to toss a shutout. Apparently Felip Alou changed his mind and went with the "regular rest" option. Jerome Williams has been extremely effective against lefthanded hitters. Keep an eye on that next year to see if it will hold up.

Florida Marlins versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	W	K	SB	CS	HBP	avg	obp	slg
J Pierre	926	272	40	10	2	75	71	86	25	8	.294	.352	.365
L Castillo	871	265	21	7	1	90	103	56	26	2	.304	.371	.347
I Rodriguez	694	203	47	4	28	50	130	11	7	6	.293	.345	.493
D Lee	888	234	53	6	46	136	236	35	14	13	.264	.369	.492
M Cabrera	259	64	16	2	9	22	74	0	1	2	.247	.311	.429
J Encarnacion	935	258	48	10	36	63	159	32	13	7	.276	.326	.464
J Conine	789	217	51	6	26	47	92	11	0	7	.275	.321	.454
A Gonzalez	534	131	30	5	14	35	113	2	4	15	.245	.310	.399
pitcher

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

If the lefthanders are able to get on base, it could be a long day for the Giants. Jerome Williams has a reverse platoon split, so Florida's righthanded lineup works in their favour.

*****************************

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, 1 PM ET (Game 3)

The Yankees are the better team, but they must win at least 1 game in the toughest place for a road team to win in the post-season. Lohse and Santana will be going against Clemens and Wells - that's a fairly evenly matched starting four. STill, the Yankees offence is always dangerous and I'm going to wager that they do indeed split in Minnesota, setting up a game 5 in their backyard with the pitching matchup solidly in their favour (likely a rested Mussina against Radke on 3-days rest.

Roger Clemens (2002/2003)
versus	AB	H	HR	TB	W	K	HBP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	K pct	W pct
right	676	193	21	314	37	172	7	15	7	.329	.464	.239	.052
left	818	178	21	278	84	210	5	28	6	.294	.340	.232	.093

Roger's splits really surprised me. The relative lack of success against righthanded powers for a power pitcher is extraordinary. Clemens seems willing to go after righthanders and the've hit him hard when they've gotten their bats on the ball. Although he walks lefthanded batters at a much higher rate, they haven't been able to make solid contact. We'll see how many good pitches to hit a lefty-stacked Minnesota lineup gets.

Minnesota Twins versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	W	K	SB	CS	HBP	avg	obp	slg
S Stewart	882	266	65	6	16	76	91	13	4	11	.302	.364	.443
L Rivas	554	153	31	10	8	32	74	20	6	6	.276	.323	.412
D Mientkiewicz	634	182	46	2	9	107	80	5	2	4	.287	.393	.409
M LeCroy	305	81	18	1	12	16	73	0	2	3	.266	.309	.449
J Jones	789	257	50	2	38	42	143	14	5	3	.326	.362	.539
T Hunter	806	215	46	5	40	52	158	16	10	9	.267	.318	.485
C Koskie	627	189	46	4	21	108	138	15	13	7	.301	.410	.488
AJ Pierzynski	703	222	54	7	11	34	79	3	2	16	.316	.361	.459
C Guzman	779	217	25	15	6	29	106	21	14	5	.279	.309	.372

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

I've discussed Gardenhire's lineup choices in previous entries.

Kyle Lohse (2002/2003)
versus	AB	H	HR	TB	W	K	HBP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	K pct	W pct
right	698	161	15	237	44	142	8	8	6	.284	.340	.189	.059
left	787	231	29	377	71	112	6	15	2	.356	.479	.130	.083

I don't like the decision to start Lohse, considering the Twins have lefthanders Kenny Rogers and Eric Milton available. Lohse in vulnerable to lefthanded batters and no one has more of these than the Yankees.

New York Yankees versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	W	K	SB	CS	HBP	avg	obp	slg
A Soriano	1107	322	67	5	62	40	230	60	12	22	.291	.330	.528
D Jeter	902	271	43	3	20	88	165	32	8	15	.300	.372	.421
J Giambi	795	236	45	1	67	185	167	3	3	21	.297	.442	.609
B Williams	761	226	41	2	26	105	116	9	4	3	.297	.384	.459
J Posada	735	192	42	1	37	133	197	3	4	10	.261	.382	.472
H Matsui	428	123	33	1	13	50	55	2	0	1	.287	.363	.460
A Boone	895	236	50	3	41	60	167	41	8	15	.264	.321	.464
N Johnson	568	153	27	0	25	99	117	6	5	13	.269	.390	.449
J Rivera	196	49	15	0	4	12	31	0	1	0	.250	.293	.388

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

**Probable Pitchers**


Saturday	NYY	Roger Clemens	at	MIN	Kyle Lohse	1:00 ET
...	SFG	Jerome Williams	at	FLA	Dontrelle Willis	1:00 ET
...	ATL	Russ Ortiz	at	ATL	Matt Clement	4:00 ET
...	OAK	Ted Lilly	at	BOS	Derek Lowe	7:30 ET

Sunday	NYY	David Wells	at	MIN	Johan Santana	t.b.a.
...	CHI		at	ATL
...	OAK		at	BOS

**Playoff Results**


Tuesday	MIN	Johan Santana	at	NYY	Mike Mussina	3-1 MIN
...	FLA	Josh Beckett	at	SF	Jason Schmidt	2-0 SFG
...	CHI	Kerry Wood	at	ATL	Russ Ortiz	4-2 CHI

Wednesday	FLA	Brad Penny	at	SF	Sidney Ponson	9-5 FLA
...	CHI	Carlos Zambrano	at	ATL	Mike Hampton	5-3 ATL
...	BOS	Pedro Martinez	at	OAK	Tim Hudson	5-4 OAK

Thursday	BOS	Tim Wakefield	at	OAK	Barry Zito	5-1 OAK
...	MIN	Brad Radke	at	NYY	Andy Pettitte	4-1 NYY

Friday	SF	Kirk Ruerter	at	FLA	Mark Redman	4-3 FLA
...	ATL	Greg Maddux	at	CHI	Mark Prior	3-1 CHI

2003 Playoff Series

New York Yankees
versus

Minnesota Twins

tied 1-1

...........|

|...........

Atlanta Braves
versus

Chicago Cubs

CHI leads 2-1

ALCS

NLCS

Oakland Athletics
versus

Boston Red Sox

OAK leads 2-0

...........|

|...........

San Francisco Giants
versus

Florida Marlins

FLA leads 2-1

Posted by robertdudek on Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 01:05 AM EDT.

Division Series: Saturday, October 4th, 2003 | 29 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike D - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#89145) #

Robert, your postseason work has been simply excellent. Great analysis, and I'm ready for some afternoon baseball!

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#89146) #

If you're in Toronto and don't have digital cable or satellite, you can't see the Giants-Marlins game at all. Dontrelle Willis pitched to Bonds, got squeezed on a couple of very close pitches, then retired him on a foul pop to third -- nice grab by Cabrera, who leaned into the second row.

Jeffrey Hammonds? I know Cruz is slumping, but that's quite an insult.

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#89147) #

Alou's decision to start Jerome Williams makes sense to me; the rookie would have been subjected to the pressure of Game 5 even if Schmidt had risen to the challenge of pitching on three days' rest. On the other hand, Hammonds in the two hole is a joke, and he's an accident waiting to happen in the outfield. Torrealba is another questionable choice; Felipe is playing random hunches in the biggest game of the year.

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#89148) #

Kyle Lohse might be in line for a very unhappy birthday. Bernie Williams led off the second with a double, and Matsui crushed a high fastball for a 2-run homer. The "Thunder Dome" turned into the "Whisper Dome" in a hurry.

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#89149) #

The latest brutal defensive play by the Giants: Rich Aurilia, thinking of the play at the plate, couldn't handle the most routine ground ball with a runner on third and one out. The run scored to tie the game (Giants had brought a walk around to score on a sac fly) and Aurilia made his second error on the play by throwing it into the dirt and pulling Snow off the bag.

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#89150) #

I can't imagine that Eric Milton would be having this much trouble. Lohse is walking a dangerous tightrope every inning, but was fortunate that Giambi lined out directly to Hunter instead of dropping a 2-run double in either gap. Bernie Williams then ripped a single up the middle to make it 3-0, and Gardenhire should get a lefty warm real soon...

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#89151) #

Pudge does it again -- an RBI double cashes Castillo, who was running from first. 2-1 Marlins, and the Giants' bullpen is getting busy.

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#89152) #

Aurilia (the Todd Walker of the NL?) bobbles the quick relay from Bonds on a Lee single, and Pudge scores easily. That's all for Williams, but it's not entirely his fault -- a decent shortstop would have cut two runners down at the plate already.

The TV crew reports that Schmidt told Alou he couldn't go, which confirms my impression that Jason is always pitching in more pain than most.

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#89153) #

The D-Train has helped himself by going 2-for-2, and he just scored the fourth run, closely followed by Juan Pierre, who beat the throw from Bonds on a broken-bat, 2-out single by Cabrera. 5-1 Marlins, and there's not much life in these Giants.

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#89154) #

Lohse has survived five innings on 105 pitches. Clemens is getting the Twins to hit everything in the air (Pierzynski's solo HR is one of just three Minnesota hits; the others were 2-out singles) and his pitch count is economical. He's used Mr. Splitty effectively as a strikeout pitch, but he's relying on the high heat.

Great hustle by Stewart to beat out an infield single when Boone had to wait for the second hop. With two away, Gardenhire pinch-hit Mike Ryan for Luis Oh-for-threevas, but the rookie looked at two strikes, then chased one a foot outside.

_Shrike - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#89155) #

Torrealba isn't chopped liver, in my opinion, and it's quite possible that Santiago is badly dinged up. And I doubt Cruz has *any* confidence right now. Whom else could Alou put in RF but Hammonds?

Either way, execution on the field will determine whether the Giants can complete their rally vs. Brad Penny.

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#89156) #

Wow, I couldn't have been more wrong about the Giants. It's all tied up.

Oddly enough, Dontrelle's prowess with the bat may have hurt him. He legged out a triple -- his third hit of the day -- in the bottom of the fifth, and was gassed when he returned to the mound. Edgardo Alfonzo hit a long double that was almost a game-tying homer, and made it 5-4, with Brad Penny on in relief. A J.T. Snow single, right under the glove of Alex Gonzalez, cashed in Fonzie.

_Jacko - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#89157) #

Freaking MLB.

Did it occur to them that people in Canada might want to watch the Giants game?

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#89158) #

Jacko, it's on Sportsnet Pacific if you have digital and subscribe to their regional service. I'm wearing out my "last" button trying to watch both games.

Hard to believe the Marlins could come up empty with the bases loaded and none out. Cabrera's going to be a good player, but he's had a horrible afternoon.

Mike D - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#89159) #

It sounds kind of doltish to say...but man, I love baseball. What a day this is, and will continue to be!

Barry due up third...

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#89160) #

Tony Gwynn just said, "It's going to come down to who wants it." He does a nice job dissecting people's swings, or discussing strategy, but he does babble quite a bit.

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#89161) #

What a play by Pudge! The man has simply done it all. The kid, Cabrera, redeemed himself with a single to right, and Rodriguez, out by ten feet on the Cruz throw, knocked the ball out ot Torrealba's grasp for the go-ahead run. Lee alertly scored all the way from first to make it 7-5.

Coach - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#89162) #

Ugueth U. Urbina served meatballs to the first two hitters, and with two outs, hit Ray Durham to move the tying run to scoring position. Then he gave up a single, but more than 65,000 fans (a week's worth during the season) breathed a simultaneous sigh of relief when Pudge -- who else? -- made the final play at the plate.

_Jacko - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#89163) #

Huh?

Snow is approximately as fast as John Olerud.

Why the hell didn't Felipe pinch run for him? Even using a pitcher would have been better than Snow...

robertdudek - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#89164) #

Those are probably the two best games I've ever seen a catcher play. It's a pleasure watching a Hall of Fame catcher play baseball.

Pepper Moffatt - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#89165) #

http://economics.about.com
Why the hell didn't Felipe pinch run for him? Even using a pitcher would have been better than Snow...

Why the hell did the 3rd base coach send him? In late innings you play for the win on the road and the tie at home.

Mike

_Brent - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#89166) #

Holy cow! What an ending!

This is a good day to be a baseball fan...unless you live in San Fransisco that is.

_S.K. - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#89167) #

Wait - the Giants are out? Damnit.

_Donkit R.K. - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#89168) #

Pudge is absolutley amazing. To think the Rangers thought he was done and he couldn't get a multiyear offer this offseason. When the Marlins win the WS this year (yes, yes I jumped on the bandwagon that quickly) and Pudge has a MVP round or two (or three) it'll be interesting to see what kind of offers he gets.

Craig B - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#89169) #

My god. He did it all. If you weren't an Ivan Rodriguez fan before that, you damn well are one now.

Mike D - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#89170) #

I liked how he held onto the ball throughout the celebration. As a matter of fact, he likely still hasn't let go of the ball.

_Donkit R.K. - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#89171) #

After watching the game, then watching the Leafs, and the Holyfield-Toney fight, I'm still in awe of Pudge's performance throughout the NLDS. I liked the announcers quote that Pudge significantly improves Florida's ERA, offense, and defense. With all the talk of definitions of MVP and value, I think Pudge v.03 defines value.

_Jacko - Sunday, October 05 2003 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#89172) #

Why the hell didn't Felipe pinch run for him? Even using a pitcher would have been better than Snow..

Without tying the game, there is no bottom of the ninth.

The chances of getting another hit off Urbina were low.

I don't think regular season cliches applied in this case...

jc

_Jacko - Sunday, October 05 2003 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#89173) #

Whoops, I meant to respond to this :)

Why the hell did the 3rd base coach send him? In late innings you play for the win on the road and the tie at home.

Without tying the game, there is no bottom of the ninth.

The chances of getting another hit off Urbina were low.

I don't think regular season cliches applied in this case...

jc

Division Series: Saturday, October 4th, 2003 | 29 comments | Create New Account

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