Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Division Series: Friday, October 3rd, 2003

Division Series: Friday, October 3rd, 2003

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, 8 PM ET (Game 3)

We've had so many great pitching matchups these playoffs, and this is right up there with the best. Greg Maddux is a shadow of his former self - but that shadow is still capable of shutting down the opposition. Here's an in-game contest - predict the number of pitches Mark Prior will throw tonight: my guess is 127.

Mark Prior (2002/2003)
versus	AB	H	HR	TB	W	K	HBP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	K pct	W pct
right	679	156	16	254	35	220	7	12	6	.275	.374	.305	.049
left	548	125	13	191	53	172	8	9	6	.305	.349	.282	.088

Mark Prior is a pitcher virtually without weakness. In his rookie year base-stealers were 14 for 17 against him; this season they were 7 for 16. He pitches north-south better than any young pitcher I've ever seen.

Atlanta Braves versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	W	K	SB	CS	HBP	avg	obp	slg
R Furcal	1031	299	46	16	17	76	148	45	15	6	.290	.342	.415
M Giles	595	181	54	3	20	65	94	13	5	11	.304	.383	.506
G Sheffield	858	273	50	1	52	120	94	25	4	16	.318	.411	.561
L Jones	879	277	57	3	47	162	139	7	4	3	.315	.423	.547
J Lopez	639	179	31	3	41	47	119	0	2	11	.280	.340	.531
A Jones	943	259	50	2	58	104	214	11	4	14	.275	.355	.516
R Fick	739	203	52	2	21	72	94	1	0	5	.275	.343	.436
V Castilla	885	223	45	5	27	34	134	5	3	10	.252	.287	.406
pitcher

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

This is going to be quite a test for the majors best offence.

Greg Maddux (2002/2003)
versus	AB	H	HR	TB	W	K	HBP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	K pct	W pct
right	877	237	23	350	31	134	26	8	6	.315	.399	.143	.034
left	718	182	15	273	47	108	16	13	5	.314	.380	.138	.061

Maddux doesn't cut off the running game that well, but he makes you earn everything else. He's a great fielder and doesn't give up many free passes. A playoff game in his first major league home will provide ample motivation. I look for Maddux to go 7 innings and limit the Cubs to 2 runs or less.

Chicago Cubs versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	W	K	SB	CS	HBP	avg	obp	slg
K Lofton	835	241	49	12	22	101	95	53	14	1	.289	.366	.455
M Grudzielanek	807	232	45	1	9	27	125	9	2	12	.287	.320	.379
S Sosa	867	232	35	1	71	111	240	2	0	8	.268	.356	.556
M Alou	807	210	41	0	29	84	104	10	1	6	.260	.334	.419
R Simon	699	208	32	1	30	25	54	8	0	1	.298	.329	.475
A Ramirez	868	216	45	2	26	56	153	4	2	16	.249	.306	.395
A Gonzalez	811	193	49	3	29	62	211	4	4	9	.238	.299	.413
D Miller	449	104	23	1	18	45	135	4	1	0	.232	.307	.408
pitcher

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

Randall Simon gets his first start of the series. Simon rarely walks, so he seems a good choice against Maddux. Sosa is the only real danger slot in the lineup.

Posted by robertdudek on Friday, October 03 2003 @ 08:28 AM EDT.

Division Series: Friday, October 3rd, 2003 | 4 comments | Create New Account

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_Scott Lucas - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#89196) #

Prior will throw 120 pitches. It'll be a tight game, and Baker will have to remove him for a pinch-hitter before reaching the 135-140 pitches Baker seems to want him to reach.

That "L Jones" guy is a pretty good hitter.

_Sean - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#89197) #

Mark Prior is a pretty good hitter... I can't see him going for less than 130. The game has started but Im nowhere near a TV. Assuming he's still in, I'll say 132.

Mike D - Friday, October 03 2003 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#89198) #

G-man reaches on a bunt. On a wet field, the risk of errors -- always relatively high on bunts -- is even greater.

Not an argument that bunting was the right play; under these conditions, however, it wasn't necessarily the wrong play, either.

_Mark - Saturday, October 04 2003 @ 02:13 AM EDT (#89199) #

Give that man a prize! 133 pitches for Prior.

Simon looked terrible before the two-run single. He was hacking ridiculously, fouling off a number of seemingly obvious balls before looping a single into right.

Interesting stat they showed on the broadcast, Maddux has given up 31% of his runs in the first inning. This would be about double the expected number (36 GS, therefore 36 first innings pitched out of 218 1/3 innings total is 16.5%). The first inning has more runs scored due to the batting order, which would account for some, but not all of the difference.

Division Series: Friday, October 3rd, 2003 | 4 comments | Create New Account

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