And 2004 for Syracuse. What is your take about when they will be up?
Cash,Gross and Arnold start in AAA, and Rios and Bush get promoted, but Dustin and Quiroz ( isnīt he Guillermo? ) remain in AA seems to be logical.

I think Cash will be with the big club on opening day. They're going to give him 400 PA next year and then depending on what he and Quiroz do next year, they will adjust their plans for 2005 accordingly.

Jabonso, here's a dartboard guess at what Syracuse's lineup will look like April 2004:

C Guillermo Quiroz (I call him Gil mostly out of laziness)
1B Gary Burnham (or someone better)
2B Jorge Sequea (either he or Alvarez could make the Blue Jays)
SS Jimmy Alvarez (Russ Adams will either start at AAA or be here soon)
3B Tony Zuniga
LF Mike Colangelo (or another outfield placeholder)
CF Alexis Rios
RF Gabe Gross (until he's promoted)
DH Simon Pond

SP Jason Arnold
SP Corey Thurman
SP Dustin McGowan
SP David Bush
SP Cam Reimers

CL Adam Peterson
RP Brian Bowles
RP Vinny Chulk
RP Mike Smith
RP Dave Gassner
SP Scott Cassidy
RP Bob File
RP Juan Pena? (I have no word on his health)

This is a very rough sketch, of course -- I'm sure the Skychiefs would like to upgrade at first base at least. The pitching staff in particular is a shot in the dark -- Thurman, Bowles, Chulk or Smith could start the year in the Toronto pen. I'm pretty sure we'll see both Bush and McGowan start '04 at AAA. There's always the six-year free-agent route, though my sense is that the supply won't be as plentiful as it was last year. And I'm assuming that veterans like Jeff Tam, Doug Linton, Dan Reichert and John Freakin' Wasdin won't be back. But a whole lot can and does happen over the winter.

Where do you see Jayson Werth Jordan?

Geoff, I see Werth traded. But I shouldn't assume that, so I'll put him in LF instead of Colangelo. And you know, those three would make one hell of a good defensive outfield.

http://economics.about.com
Here's a related question: Who is JP going to keep on the 40 man roster?

I imagine he'll only keep 37 or 38 so he can pick up some Rule Vers. So who will he keep and who might not make it?

Cheers,

Mike

I'm not sure if we'll have room to take 2 or 3 picks this time. After you add McGowan, Arnold, Gross, Griffin and Gassner on there you're already up to about 36-37 with minimal offseason signings and several players taken off the roster. Then you've got guys like Godwin, Sequea, Harper, Reimers, DJ Hanson and possibly Vince Perkins dangling out there for the rule V.

I would like to see Werth as super utility ( catcher, 1st, Of ) with the Jays, but somehow this season was a black hole developmentally wise.
Syracuse shows our system weaknesses very well: Lefhanded pitchers, third basemen. And our strengths: Outfielders and good batters without a position. Which reminds me that Griffin will be in the mix at AAA. Do not think that he needs more AA time. Also Godwin and Singleton could be in the OF mix ( those names bring sheer speed evocations, don't they )

http://economics.about.com
Here's the 40 man roster as it currently stands. If I can count right, I think there's 39 guys on it right now.

Pitchers

26 Brian Bowles
50 Vinnie Chulk
* 39 Doug Creek
45 Kelvim Escobar
* 36 Bob File
32 Roy Halladay
43 Mark Hendrickson
46 Jason Kershner
21 Cory Lidle
44 Aquilino Lopez
* 49 Diegomar Markwell
* 34 Justin Miller
51 Trever Miller
19 Cliff Politte
54 Dan Reichert
* 37 Francisco Rosario
* 18 Mike Smith
31 Tanyon Sturtze
* 35 Corey Thurman
7 Josh Towers
41 Pete Walker

Catchers
29 Kevin Cash
28 Greg Myers
* 12 Guillermo Quiroz
9 Tom Wilson

Infielders
2 Dave Berg
16 Mike Bordick
6 Howie Clark
25 Carlos Delgado
11 Eric Hinske
3 Orlando Hudson
* 4 Dominic Rich
5 Chris Woodward

Outfielders
27 Frank Catalanotto
37 Reed Johnson
24 Bobby Kielty
* 15 Alexis Rios
10 Vernon Wells
* 13 Jayson Werth

Designated Hitters
17 Josh Phelps

Creek, Lidle and Sturtze will most certainly be off, so that brings it down to 36. You might be right.. the Jays might keep 39 or 40 guys.

Does anybody have a list of who needs to be added?

Cheers,

Mike

I compiled this list a little while ago. Some things have changed since. (Politte is apparently on the bubble, Cat and Myers will likely be back)

1) Halladay
2) Hendrickson
3) J. Miller
4) Towers

5) Lopez
6) Bowles
7) T. Miller
8) Politte
9) Kershner
10) Chulk
11) Rosario
12) Arnold
13) Gassner
14) McGowan
15) Thurman

16) Delgado
17) Hudson
18) Hinske
19) Woodward
20) Berg (signed through next year)
21) Phelps

22) Quiroz
23) Wilson or Myers
24) Cash

25) Wells
26) Kielty
27) Werth
28) Johnson
29) Gross
30) Griffin
31) Rios

Bubble: Catalanotto, Reichert, Sequea, Rich, Godwin, Pond, Harper, Smith, Clark, Reimers, Perkins, Hanson, Chacin, Alvarez, Comolli, Negron, File, Walker, Creek (option)

9 spots open:
FA's Needed:
- Minimum 2 starters. (Maybe a third via minor league FA.)
- Minimum 1 bullpen guy
- Infielder/Woodward insurance. Bordick or other.

That leaves 5 spots.

Maybe needed:
- Catcher/Cash insurance. Myers type or move Werth back to C (but I've been saying that ever since they moved him to the outfield) Using Werth, Huckaby or other minor league FA temporarily opens up a spot
- Rule 5 pick. Do we go for another Lopez or Thurman? I think so.
- Another bullpen guy.

So we have between 2-5 spots for the guys on the bubble.

My Opinions:

Cat - I'd like to see him stay but there isn't really much room for him. There will have to be some trades this offseason for him to stay until Gross/Rios arrive.
File - He keeps his spot. We've waited two years for him to get healthy. Would be a shame to lose him on waivers now that he finally is.
Godwin - A lot of teams will look very closely at this guy. Two time first round pick with loads of tools. Did pretty well at AA. Depends on what happens in the AFL but I think he falls in the 2rd spot.
Sequea - I like this guy a lot, he might fall in my 3rd spot.
Harper, Reimers - TOUGH decisions here. May just be a couple more Chris Baker's here. Not that these types of guys don't ever make it, it's just that so many of them don't. They would be my 4th and 5th pick pending Reimers performance in the AFL.
Rich,Alvarez - Rich can hit, but doesn't have a whole lot of power and poor defense, I think he gets taken off the 40 man. Alvarez is a little older and should make it through the rule 5.
Pond - He really has shown he can hit. But older 1B/DH types really are a dime a dozen. I think he's left off and we try to re-sign him to another minor league deal.
Smith - Been a big Mike Smith fan, but he just hasn't performed consistently. Some extremely good outings
littered amongst the poor ones. He should slip through waivers.
Clark - Meh. Maybe if Berg weren't signed to a 2 year deal but he is, so Clark is pretty redundant.
Perkins - Just isn't ready for the majors. He could be picked but I have a hard time seeing him make
it past spring training.
Hanson - Too far away as well. I think he could be a big sleeper pick though and reward a team who's
willing to take a gamble.
Chacin, Negron, Comolli - Nothing really special at this point.
Reichert - Doesn't have much you couldn't find on the minor league FA market.
Walker, Creek - Two aging, injured mediocre vets. Thanks for all you've done guys but it's just not worth the risk right now.

I can see brewing vultures flying around...
It is a good a idea to knock out of the list guys like Walker et al
But I would not gamble with Perkins.

http://economics.about.com
I'm trying to compile a list of which minor leaguers need to be added to the 40 man or else they'll be eligible for the 40 man. Is the following list complete and accurate?

Alvarez
Arnold
Chacin
Comolli
Gassner
Godwin
Griffin
Gross
Harper
Hanson
McGowan
Negron
Perkins
Pond
Reimers
Sequea

Cheers,

Mike

Jabonoso, I strongly agree about Werth as a super-utility OF/C/1B and have for quite a while now. He's not worth much in a trade right now.. and he's not likely to beat out any of the other OF. But a good hitting, speedy bench guy who can play 5 positions can be very useful. He'd still get 400-500 AB a season, particularly under Tosca.

Ryan01, I agree with a lot of your list. If it were up to me though, I would look at the on-the-bubble choices with a view to overall system composition (strengths/weaknesses). For that reason, I would be reluctant to add Godwin (particularly due to his age) and Sequea ahead of Hanson and Perkins. I agree that both pitchers are probably 2 years away, but both showed signs of being dominant during the year. Hanson, in particular, is a special case due to injury issues since being drafted. The Jays are generally stocked with middle infielders and outfielders and not pitchers. Given the risks associated with pitching prospects I think you can never have too many.

The other change is that I would be surprised if Bowles held onto his 40 man spot above a few of the names listed. I say this even though he really has done nothing at AAA or the majors to suggest that he shouldn't get a fair shot (I know his control isn't great). However, I think he is 27 (?) and is a reliever. He probably is running out of time in TO.

I think JF Griffin will start the season in AAA, infact I'm almost certain he will.
The only debate in my opinion is his position, he could play LF depending on Werth and to some extent the spring performance of Gross, or more likely he will play 1B/DH.
If Griffin's power continues to improve he looks to be a good major leaguer, and he needs to be tested in AAA at the start of the season given that he will be 24 (i think) at the start of the 2004 season.

Syracuse is going to be a very good team next year.

Yes Mike I think that's about everybody. (Of course there are plenty others but none worth putting on the roster (Burnham, Snyder, etc).

Perkins I'm not entirely sure if he's eligible or not. He was drafted at 18 but signed the following year as a 19 year old so I'm not sure if he has 3 or 4 years before needing to be added. I thought that the date of signing was what mattered but according to another fan, Perkins himself believes that he is not eligible yet.

Sorry Mike, I forgot about Sandy Nin. He's probably pretty safe but he does deserve to be mentioned at least.

The rule : Players who were 18 or younger on June 5 preceding the signing of their first contract must be protected after four minor league seasons. Players 19 and older must be protected after three seasons.

Perkins was signed before June 5, 2001, and on June 5, 2000 he was 18 years old. He doesn't need to be protected until after the 2004 season.

Sandy Nin is exposed to the Rule 5, yes. As has been pointed out, there is no risk of him being taken in the ML draft anyway, and I'm sure he'll be on the AA reserve list for the minor league portion.

I would echo the suspicions that Bowles may have greased his own skids. There is, at this point, no particualr reason to protect him ahead of the young players.

With a very large number of teams trying to put their financial house in order, the Rule 5 faces two contradictory pressures. First, there will be considerable pressure not to blow even the $25,000 on making choices who are just blind tosses at the dartboard. Second, though, there will be more teams actually looking to use the Rule 5 to fill a roster spot, trying to pick up some cheap talent.

It's obvious that with the sharp and aggressive front office they have, the Jays would love to take a swing at one Rule 5 pick at a bare minimum. This is the problem with a deep farm system... you can picked pretty clean if you're not careful. But I see few names on that list that would be able to stick in the majors for a full year.

Craig, the guys who have the best shot to stick for a full year (unless you have a situation like Matt Ford, where a team sticks a pitcher at the end of the bullpen for a full year as a sunk cost) are Alvarez and Sequea because of their ability to play a back-up/utility infielder role. I would worry about losing Sequea but not Alvarez. Sequea essentially put up identical numbers to Adams this year, is basically the same age as Adams and did it at a higher level. The scouts may say that Adams has the higher ceiling and they may be right, but based on this year, if Adams is a prospect then so is Sequea. Alvarez's age plays heavily against him.

Excellent, thanks Craig for the clarification on Perkins' status.

I check out the
ESPN Transactions Primer whenever I get confused about who needs to protected.

For the 2003 Rule 5 draft, they jays need to protect:

- any age 19+ signees from the 2001 draft and before (e.g. Gabe Gross)
- any age 18- signees from the 2000 draft and before (e.g. Dustin McGowan)

I think the Jays have some room for Rule 5 picks, but they're going to need to be brutally honest about who deserves to stay on on the 40-man. Here's my assessment:

pitchers-mlb(7)
Kelvim Escobar
Jason Kershner
Aquilino Lopez
Josh Towers
Pete Walker
Roy Halladay
Trever Miller

hitters-mlb(13)
Dave Berg
Kevin Cash
Greg Myers
Reed Johnson
Bobby Kielty
Vernon Wells
Jayson Werth
Josh Phelps
Carlos Delgado
Eric Hinske
Chris Woodward
Frank Catalanotto
Orlando Hudson

pitchers-min(8)
Jason Arnold
Dustin McGowan
Vince Perkins
Dave Gassner
Jesse Harper
Francisco Rosario
Mike Smith
Corey Thurman

hitters-min(6)
Gabe Gross
John-Ford Griffin
Tyrell Godwin
Guillermo Quiroz
Miguel Negron
Alexis Rios

GONE?
Brian Bowles
Vinnie Chulk
Doug Creek
Bob File
Cory Lidle
Diegomar Markwell
Justin Miller
Cliff Politte
Dan Reichert
Tanyon Sturtze
Tom Wilson
Mike Bordick
Howie Clark
Dominic Rich

Notes:

- 7+13+8+6=34, which leaves 6 slots.
- are any of the guys from the "GONE" list worth protecting?
- can they risk exposing Rosario, who is recovering from TJ surgery?
- have I missed anyone else from the minors who needs to be protected?

How are Sequea and Alvarez defensively? Maybe one of them would be a decent middle infield backup...

Godwin might be part of the bait for bringing in a #2/#3 starting pitcher. Gross and Rios appear to have the other two outfield slots completely wrapped up...

Jacko, from your list of "Gone" I would be protecting, Chulk, File, Miller and Politte. As noted above Perkins does not have to be protected. That still leaves you with 3 spots open (if Escobar does not resign you have 4).

I think all of Chulk, File, Miller and Politte deserve to stay until you know you have replaced the arms (through trades or FA) with something better. All have the chance to be better than the Sturtze type flotsam/flyer. It think you hold onto as much pitching as possible.

The interesting name on the list is Wilson. He definitely has some value, but maybe not to the Jays. If Cash stays, it's hard to see Wilson having a role in '04. I could definitely see Wilson being packaged in a trade. By himself he does not have great value, but a catcher that can give you mid 700's OPS with good OBP definitely has some value.

What's the latest status on Justin Miller? I haven't heard anything since he had surgery.

I'd be leery of leaving Rosario unprotected, and I'll be surprised if JP doesn't feel the same way.

The rule : Players who were 18 or younger on June 5 preceding the signing of their first contract must be protected after four minor league seasons. Players 19 and older must be protected after three seasons.


That's an interesting wrinkle -- I've never heard of this June 5th clause before. There is no mention of it in the Neyer transactions primer on ESPN. According to that source, it is completely based on the player's birthday. Though I can see the logic behind the rule.

Is there an official version of the rules on the MLB site?

I think all of Chulk, File, Miller and Politte deserve to stay until you know you have replaced the arms (through trades or FA) with something better. All have the chance to be better than the Sturtze type flotsam/flyer. It think you hold onto as much pitching as possible.

File, Politte, and Miller all have injury question marks beside them. Cut them and offer them minor league invites to spring training.

As for Chulk, is he really an different than Chris Baker, Cameron Reimers, or Scott Cassidy? Based on his 2001 and what I know of his "stuff", I think Mike Smith is a much better candidate than all of those guys to become a successful major league pitcher.

The interesting name on the list is Wilson. He definitely has some value, but maybe not to the Jays. If Cash stays, it's hard to see Wilson having a role in '04. I could definitely see Wilson being packaged in a trade. By himself he does not have great value, but a catcher that can give you mid 700's OPS with good OBP definitely has some value.

Because of the rapid development of Quiroz this year, there's no room for Cash at Syracuse (and therefore, no room in Toronto for Wilson).

I wonder if it would benefit Cash to play some winter ball this season to work on his hitting.

So, back to that starting pitcher we're supposed to trade for.

Godwin + Tom Wilson for...

Godwin and Wilson are practically freely available talent. The two together will get you a Darren Oliver and not much more.

Rosario won't be dropped for the simple reason that they put him on last year when they knew he would be having Tommy John surgery so for sure they won't drop him now. After all, they have already announced who they would be exposing.

Dan Reichert - Outrighted to Syracuse SkyChiefs
Michael Anthony Smith - Outrighted to Syracuse SkyChiefs
Tanyon Sturtze - Outrighted to Syracuse SkyChiefs
Dominic Rich - Outrighted to Syracuse SkyChiefs

Spicol, you may be right about Godwin being freely available talent (I can't say that I see anything to get too excited about in his numbers) but the Jays do get the Arizona Fall League season to pass final judgement. I cannot agree that Wilson is freely available talent (even though he clearly was that as of 2 years ago). The average american league catcher this year hit .256/.309/.401. Wilson hit .250/.330/.390. His defensive shortcomings may push him back to average or slightly below average, but this is still considerably more than freely available talent. I'm not trying to oversell Wilson's value, but he does have some.

Jacko, I copied that quote re June 5 from Baseball America's "Rule 5 Draft Primer".

Also, someone will give Politte a major league deal. Anyway, he's arb-eligible, so if you decline to offer him a contract, then you can't sign him to a major-league deal until May 1, so he's going to look to 29 other teams.

Also, someone will give Politte a major league deal. Anyway, he's arb-eligible, so if you decline to offer him a contract, then you can't sign him to a major-league deal until May 1, so he's going to look to 29 other teams


Throw him to the wolves then. In abitration, his agent will find some ridiculous comp involving saves and he'll end up costing the Jays way too much.

Scott:

Dan Reichert - Outrighted to Syracuse SkyChiefs
Michael Anthony Smith - Outrighted to Syracuse SkyChiefs
Tanyon Sturtze - Outrighted to Syracuse SkyChiefs
Dominic Rich - Outrighted to Syracuse SkyChiefs

What's your source for these? I can't find any mention of them on MLB.com, usatoday, or espn...

The average american league catcher this year hit .256/.309/.401.

It's not just his offense or below average defense that leads me to believe Wilson is no more than freely available talent...he'll be 33 this December. The downhill slide has begun.

Of course he has value. He wouldn't have been on the Jays this year if he didn't have value. But it's the kind of value that is easy to find, hence the "freely available talent" label. His value means that he'll be picked up if released but no one would or should give up anything of note for him in a trade.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/transactions/minors.jsp?maj_team=tor
If I did this right, click on my name for the link involving Sturze, Rich, Smithl, Reichert.

Jacko,

Go to MLB transactions and click on minor league for Toronto. I think quite a few teams have dropped players today.

I think Godwin would be taken in a second, regardless of age. His age only means he's more likely to be useful at the major league level and he has the type of blazing speed that a lot of teams like in the outfield. I think you try to include him along with Dominic Rich and Jayson Werth and even Tom Wilson in trades in the off-season.

Assuming no trades, here's how I think the 40-man should shake out.

Needed spots for current/replacement players (30):

Pitchers (12)

Halladay, Veteran Reliever, 2nd starter (Escobar?), 3rd starter, 4th starter, Kershner, Chulk, Lopez, Trever Miller, Politte, Rosario, Towers

Catchers (4)

Cash, Myers, Quiroz, Wilson

Infielders (7)

Berg, Veteran SS, Delgado, Hinske, Hudson, Rich, Woodward

Outfielders (6)

Catalanatto, Johnson, Kielty, Rios, Wells, Werth

DH (1)

Phelps

Needed spots for prospects who need to be added (9):

Arnold, Gassner, Godwin, Griffin, Gross, Harper, McGowan, Perkins, Pond

That makes 39 spots used with one free for a Rule V or additional free agent.

That leaves exposed the following players:

Pitchers: Bowles, File, Markwell, Justin Miller, Reichert, Smith, Thurman, Walker, Chacin, Comolli, Hanson, Reimers

Infielders: Clark, Alvarez, Sequea

Outfielders: Negron

It's a tough choice to expose Thurman, File, Justin Miller, Walker, and even Reimers. I just don't think these players are likely to be taken. You'd rather not lose any of the infielders either but the Jays obviously have to prioritise to keep their best pitchers.

No way I would expose Thurmasn and Walker to protect Gassner, Pond and Harper.

I'm with Robert on that. I like Gassner, but he's nowhere near a major-league pither yet... he has a lot of development to do to get there. Thurman and Walker are already there.

Well Thurman was outrighted yesterday so he will be exposed. Pond shouldn't be on there for sure, and Jesse Harper is very unlikely.

Gassner I think is very close to the majors. He comes with 4 years of polish at Purdue. Though his college career wasn't particularly outstanding he has put up excellent numbers at every level in the minors. (ERA under 3.60 at every level) Excellent K/BB. K's are high enough considering he's a lefty... and well... he's a lefty. Teams will definitely look at him in the rule 5.

Where did you get that Thurman will be exposed as well?

nevermind

No surprise on Markwell, Bowles, and Creek. But Thurman is a bit of shock. He was awful in the majors this year, but looked solid at Syracuse. At the very worst, he would be a good guy to round out the bullpen with.

I think he's a pretty sure bet to be picked up by a team desperate for pitching.

Wait a sec -- aren't the Jays desperate for pitching?

Well Thurman was outrighted yesterday so he will be exposed.

I've gotta admit...this surprised me too.

Of the prospects whose service time dictates they be added or else exposed to the Rule V draft:

Dave Gassner will be 25 in December and has pitched 2 games above AA. He might be drafted but even if he were, it's doubtful the selecting team would keep him. He doesn't deserve a 40-man spot.

Ty Godwin is 3 years older than Miguel Negron but they have a similar skill set and project to be similar players (notice that I said "skill set" and not "performance" before you flame). I'd protect Negron before Godwin but I don't even protect Negron. No one would pick him up.

Simon Pond = Howie Clark + a bit of power - any glove of any kind. He's not worth protecting.

File and Miller...you have to hold on to these guys, especially the latter.

It's not as if you have to make all of these decisions now though. The Jays can keep all of these players that are on the bubble, like Negron for example, until after the draft, and then jettison them in reverse order of their worth as free agents are signed.

It's tough to talk about the 40 man roster without an updated minor league report. I did a prospect summary for the official site at the end of the minor league season, but I'm sure Gideon will outdo me.

Anyways, my opinions for what their worth about 8 players who have been mooted about:

(1) not including Thurman on the list was to my mind an obvious mistake,
(2) Ty Godwin is 24 with no power and no strike zone judgment, and he's just played a bit of double A. He should clearly not be protected,
(3) Jorge Sequea hit double A pitching very well and held his own against triple A pitching at age 22, and he's a middle infielder. He should clearly be protected,
(4) Simon Pond should clearly be unprotected (as Reed Johnson was last year); he might have a future as LH pinch-hitter, but he's just too old and hasn't performed exceptionally so you can't expect more,
(5)The double A pitching prospects are difficult- Gassner has a significantly better record than Reimers; I would definitely try to make a spot for Gassner
(6)I'd generally be reluctant to protect Single A pitching prospects -Harper's record is fine, but I couldn't justify a roster spot; Perkins on the other hand presents a dilemma, discussed below.

Should you have Vince Perkins on your 40 man roster? If other teams behaved rationally, one would not. If he's picked up in the Rule V, he will be spending a year in the majors that he desperately needs to spend in the minors to work on his control. The odds that he will succeed if he's picked up in the Rule V are low.

However, Perkins is one of those pitchers with a very high upside. His performance in Charleston at the start of the season (15K and less than 5 hits per game) was much commented upon. The temptation for another team to pluck Perkins on a flyer will be very high, and then the Jays have truly lost something because if he starts next season in single A, and works his way through the system in the ordinary course, he does have a chance to be great in the long run. On balance, I'd try to protect him.

http://economics.about.com
Well Thurman was outrighted yesterday so he will be exposed. Pond shouldn't be on there for sure, and Jesse Harper is very unlikely.

Can they put Thurman back on before the Rule V draft? I'd be shocked if the Jays left him off. 26 walks to 72K's in 86 innings in AAA? You think someone would pick him up. I wouldn't be upset if the Expos picked him up.

Cheers,

Mike

Thurman making it through waivers means he probably has about a 95% chance of making it through the rule 5 draft. If a team had claimed him all they would have had to do is put him on the 40 man and they could option him to the minors if they wanted. In the rule 5 they have to keep him in the majors all year.

I think we've already established that Perkins does NOT have to be added to the 40 man since he's not eligible for the rule 5 yet.

http://economics.about.com
Thurman making it through waivers means he probably has about a 95% chance of making it through the rule 5 draft. If a team had claimed him all they would have had to do is put him on the 40 man and they could option him to the minors if they wanted. In the rule 5 they have to keep him in the majors all year.

Good point. I hadn't thought of that.

I'm kind of surprised nobody nabbed him, though. I guess most teams are taking a "wait and see" attitude. Can't say that I blame them; this look like it's going to be a really weird off-season.

This was in another thread, but I'll comment here. The D-Backs to me show why deferring money can be a dangerous idea, despite their World Series win.

Cheers,

Mike

Rich has been outrighted, too. Not entirely surprising, given that his offence is unspectacular and most defensive reports are fair to middling. He probably wouldn't take a job away from Hudson, Adams or Hill, and it looks like Alvarez & Sequea have the inside track on backup jobs.

I think the decision to expose Miller will depend on his health. He just had surgery in the spring, so if he's not even going to start rehab until the all-star break, Ricciardi might assume that other teams won't take a chance on an injured pitcher. Of course, Miller's injury wasn't a typical shoulder injury, so I'm not entirely sure what his recovery prospects are.

Bob File is probably in the same boat, though he's at least been pitching. If it looks like he can help the team he gets to stay on the roster; if not, there's probably no point using up a 40-man spot to protect a guy who might be passed by Peterson, Vermilyea, etc. by the time he actually pitches in Toronto.

Time for a recount!

Pitchers (12)

Halladay, Veteran Reliever, 2nd starter (Escobar?), 3rd starter, 4th starter, Kershner, Chulk, Lopez, Trever Miller, Politte, Rosario, Towers

Catchers (4)

Cash, Myers, Quiroz, Wilson

Infielders (7)

Berg, Veteran SS, Delgado, Hinske, Hudson, Rich, Woodward

...

Needed spots for prospects who need to be added (9):

Arnold, Gassner, Godwin, Griffin, Gross, Harper, McGowan, Perkins, Pond

That makes 39 spots used with one free for a Rule V or additional free agent.

...

Exposed guys:

Pitchers: Bowles, File, Markwell, Justin Miller, Reichert, Smith, Thurman, Walker, Chacin, Comolli, Hanson, Reimers

Infielders: Clark, Alvarez, Sequea

Outfielders: Negron

Delete Perkins (no protection needed)
Delete Rich(outrighted)
Delete Veteran SS (use some minor league contracts)
Delete Pond (nice bat, but no room)
Delete Wilson (redundant with Cash in majors)

That brings the count back down to 34.

Negron was ok this year, and he's still very young. He could pull a Rios and start hitting next year. I'm willing to use a spot on him (35). Pete Walker, when healthy, is a useful arm to have (36). Keep one of Sequea or Alvarez and let them compete with whoever else gets signed for the backup job at SS (37).

That leaves 3 spots for Rule 5 picks...

Jacko, using your list:

a) I wouldn't waste a spot on Negron, he was in low A last year; I can't imagine him being picked and staying at the majors for a full year;

b) I agree on Walker;

c) as between Seguea and Alvarez, that's a no-brainer due to age (unless there's some issue with Sequea's defense that makes him a non-starter for playing either shortstop or second);

d) as I said yesterday, I think you should be protecting Hanson, File and Miller;

This still leaves you with 1 spot for a Rule V player. It's hard to imagine the Jays being able to keep more than one Rule V player on the roster next year. If you see someone you like better in the draft you can always drop someone later.

There's no way, in my opinion, that Negron gets put on there. He put up decent numbers in the Sally league in ONLY 109 AB in his third time around the league. Poor numbers in rookie ball. Scouts say he'll never hit for power. He doesn't have any plate discipline. He's in much more danger of being released than being claimed in the rule 5.

Delete Perkins (no protection needed)
Delete Rich(outrighted)
Delete Veteran SS (use some minor league contracts)
Delete Pond (nice bat, but no room)
Delete Wilson (redundant with Cash in majors)

Replace Perkins with your pitcher of choice...likely Walker.

Replace Rich with Sequea.

You can't delete Veteran SS. SOMEONE is going to take that 40-man spot as the Jays aren't going to go into the year with only one major league ready shortstop so a spot has to be allocated. We don't know if that's Sequea yet.

Pond and Wilson and bubble guys. If there's realistically something better you can do with those spots then that's fine. If you want to wait until after Rule V that's fine...Wilson at least has proven to be useful against lefthanded pitching and can catch or play first. Not a bad bench player to have around, considering he has two years in the majors now.

There's no way I think about protecting Justin Miller, Bob File, or Miguel Negron. If Miller is still hurt I just keep him on the 60-day DL until Spring Training breaks. Jesse Harper and DJ Hanson are also bubble guys so it's hard to say what to do with them. It's tough to protect a guy who was pitching in low-A in Hanson's case though.

The Jays have enough pitchers and outfielders that they're going to lose someone or other.

I did a prospect summary for the official site at the end of the minor league season, but I'm sure Gideon will outdo me.

Mike, don't be so sure. I could very well have a lousy post-season. :-) Could you send me the link to your article? I'd be quite interested in reading it. For those wondering, the minor-league reviews will begin next Monday.

Thurman being outrighted may have been a calculated gamble that paid off; his numbers in the majors and minors weren't overwhelming. I don't think I would've taken that gamble, but that's why they don't pay me the big bucks. For all I think highly of Thurman, he really does have to produce very soon to warrant the organization's further interest in him; JP is not known for limitless patience. If he's going to step up, it has to be this spring or early summer. Put it this way, I would have spent an AFL developmental roster spot on Thurman before spending it on Pete Bauer.

It's probably a little early to nail down a 40-man roster; there'll be more than one trade this off-season. But at the very least, I wouldn't protect Wilson, Pond, Rich, Negron, J. Miller, or File. Godwin gets one more year.

Here's the link, Jordan: http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/mb/message.asp?webtag=ml-bluejays&msg=5317.56&ctx=0. The year-end posts are items 62 and 64 on the thread.

I'm eager to read your take on the kids.

i was just wondering who you think has the best stuff in the jays minor league system. will peterson be in the skydome before the season is over, and will bush go back to the pen in the majors?

I think right now Magowan has the best stuff plus command to be a #1 or #2 starter. Pure stuff but not quite the command yet would be Perkins, and the reports lately on Rosario have him right up there with Magowan possibly. I think right now the hope is for Bush to continue to start and be a #3 or #4 in the majors.

David,

1. McGowan, Perkins, Rosario and League, in no particular order. Hanson and Peterson are close behind.
2. Probably not. The bullpen is fine for this year and Peterson needs the innings at AAA. He might be up in September.
3. Unlikely. He projects as a fine #3 starter at this point, and they're way more valuable than most relievers.

HTH.