Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, 7 PM ET (game 2)

A must-must-win game for the Braves. Facing Prior in Wrigley in Game 3 down 2-0 would just about spell curtains for the top regular season dog in the National League. If the Braves lose this series, it won't be a big upset in my book. But it will add just a little bit of spice to the "Bobby Cox can't manage in a short series" broth that's been simmering for almost 20 years.

Zambrano's problem has always been control and the Braves are a patient ballclub. The number of runs the Braves score depends on how well they do with men on base, because I'm confident they'll have plenty of those situations.

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

The Braves weren't able to handle Wood's stuff last night, but Zambrano's is ever so slightly less potent. Working the count is going to pay off aginst Zambrano - I don't think he'll be effective past 110 pitches tonight.

Mike Hampton's game is controlling the running game and getting the ground ball double play. He'll give up a bunch of walks, but isn't less effective against righthanders than lefthanders. The Cubs don't run anyway, so the key to their offence in this game will be avoiding the GIDP.

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

Kenny Lofton leading off for the Cubs against a lefthander is a bad idea. He's the only lefthanded batter in the lineup and should be batting 8th. I'd lead off Grudzielanek, followed by Ramon Martinez. The Cubs offence against lefties is potentially as good as the Braves versus rightahnders. This game will come down to how much command Zambrano has. If he walks too many guys, the final score might be something like 7-4 for the Braves.