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Archives Division Series: Tuesday, September 30th, 2003

This entry will be updated as necessary throughout the day.

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, 1 PM ET

Today is Minnesota's best shot. They have their ace going, a fireballing lefthander is Yankee Stadium. If Minnesota is to win this series, today figures to be a must win for them (although I thought the same thing in the 2002 ALDS between Anaheim and New York). The key to this game will be Santana's ability to throw strikes to a patient Yankees lineup. If he can walk fewer than 4 batters and go 7 innings, he should be able to limit the damage.

It seems like half the time Mike Mussina is unhittable; the rest of the time you can get 4 or 5 runs off him. Minnesota's lineup isn't very potent, so scoring 3 runs in today's game will more than meet my expectations.



Johan Santana (2002/2003)
versusABHHRTBWKHBPSBCSOBPSLGK pct
right7291621926475231243.297.362.287
left255495752175232.259.294.270

Santana isn't much worse against righthanders, though he walks a few more of them. I don't look for the Yankees to do much running against Santana/Pierzynski - they'll probably try the long sequence offense (walks and singles) and get his pitch count up.



New York Yankees versus Lefhanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
PlayerABH2B3BHRWKSBCSHBPavgobpslg
A Soriano268842021421561694.313.372.560
N Johnson131317041938007.237.363.382
D Jeter2217680828361105.344.429.489
J Giambi300741401553851015.247.386.443
J Posada25780220134156003.311.412.549
B Williams2969515184942403.321.422.459
H Matsui194559031331022.284.335.376
A Boone30368202942481433.224.325.393
J Rivera581940436100.328.361.603
              
R Sierra2285916041638110.259.307.382
K Garcia12527606535020.216.246.408

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

Johnson batting 2nd is a bit of a surprise. I like the decision to put Juan Rivera in the lineup instead of Sierra.

Mike Mussina (2002/2003)
versusABHHRTBWKHBPSBCSOBPSLGK pct
right76719022305261586117.278.398.198
left86321026335442192413.282.388.241



Minnesota Twins versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
PlayerABH2B3BHRWKSBCSHBPavgobpslg
S Stewart88226665616769113411.302.364.443
L Rivas5541533110832742066.276.323.412
D Mientkiewicz634182462910780524.287.393.409
M LeCroy30581181121673023.266.309.449
J Jones78925750238421431453.326.362.539
T Hunter806215465405215816109.267.318.485
C Koskie6271894642110813915137.301.410.488
AJ Pierzynski7032225471134793216.316.361.459
C Guzman779217251562910621145.279.309.372
              
M Ryan5518305510200.327.383.655
D Mohr4801322621532122622.275.323.431

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

Matt LeCroy starts instead of Mike Ryan, which is a mistake in my book. There's no way I would bat Rivas second, and batting Koskie 7th is a bit of a head-scratcher. I'd probably move Hunter down the order. The best #2 hitter of the team would be Doug Mientkiewicz, but because he's a first baseman it's unlikely he'll ever bat there for Gardenhire.


Playoff Schedule
       
TuesdayMINJohan SantanaatNYYMike Mussina1:00
...FLAJosh BeckettatSFJason Schmidt4:00
...CHIKerry WoodatATLRuss Ortiz8:00
       
WednesdayFLABrad PennyatSFSidney Ponson4:00
...CHICarlos ZambranoatATLMike Hampton7:00
...BOSPedro MartinezatOAKTim Hudson10:00
       
ThursdayBOSTim WakefieldatOAKBarry Zito4:00
...MINBrad RadkeatNYYAndy Pettitte8:00
       
FridaySFKirk RuerteratFLAMark Redman4:00
...ATLGreg MadduxatCHIMark Prior8:00

 



2003 Playoff Series
New York Yankees
versus
Minnesota Twins
ALDS
...........| |...........
Atlanta Braves
versus
Chicago Cubs
NLDS
 
ALCS
 
NLCS
 
Oakland Athletics
versus
Boston Red Sox
ALDS-WC
...........| |...........
San Francisco Giants
versus
Florida Marlins
NLDS-WC
Posted by robertdudek on Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 11:47 AM EDT.
Division Series: Tuesday, September 30th, 2003 | 31 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Named For Hank - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#86581) #
Is this game on Toronto-area radio?
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Craig B - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#86582) #
Aaron, I suspect it's not. FAN only mentions the Giant game tonight.
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_Scott Lucas - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#86583) #
Ah, the first-inning, none-out, runner-on-second bunt.

There's a strategy I can do without.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#86584) #
Robert, you are absolutely right about Gardenhire's lineup selection. "Bizarre" is the best word I can think to describe it.
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_Mick - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#86585) #
I love Nick hitting second. I think Jeter should lead off and Soriano hit fourth or fifth. Jeter-Johnson-Giambi-Williams-Soriano. Mmmmmm.

But Joe Torre doesn't take my calls.

I have a feeling that this is the Cubbies' year. That rotation is scary in a short series.
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_Scott Lucas - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#86586) #
Does Bernie Williams have bursitis or something? That throw had nothing on it.
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_Jurgen - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#86587) #
I have a feeling that this is the Cubbies' year. That rotation is scary in a short series.

A patient team (like, say, the 544 BB/.349 OBP Braves or the 591 BB/.338 OBP Giants) can knock Wood or Zambrano out of the game early, and expose that weak bullpen.

For anyone getting all misty-eyed over the idea of a Cubs World Series, recall this little tibit about Tribune Corp.'s dedication to the fans.

Man, listening to Joe Morgan is pretty funny. "Derek Jeter, one of the best defensive shortstops in the game"? "The [Shannon Stewart in LF] Twins have the best defensive outfields in baseball, leading the league in fielding percentage."
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robertdudek - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#86588) #
After an infield single, the much-maligned Guzman insulted Matsui's arm and just barely got into third on a ground single by Shannon Stewart (it looked like he was out on the replay). Guzzie scored on a soft liner to shallow centre, but everyone knows that against Bernie, that's plenty deep for a sac fly.

The Twins, no doubt, are anticipating a low-scoring game.
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robertdudek - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#86589) #
Another angle showed that Boone missed the tage - great call by the ump and great slide by Guzman. Little ball lives!
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_Jabonoso - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#86590) #
Godzilla's throw was even worst. Distance was like SS ( in the grass ) to first. And he was charging...
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_gid - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#86591) #

The [Shannon Stewart in LF] Twins have the best defensive outfields in baseball, leading the league in fielding percentage.

Even better was when Miller say that Stewart "had all the tools" or something very close to that. This is 4 words with two obvious errors -- tools = not the way to evaluate guys, and even if it were, everyone knows Stewart's arm is messed up.

And then there was the following exchange, which I swear took place twice in the first two innings:

Miller: "Gee, Giambi hit only .250 this year"

Morgan: "Yeah, but he got 100 RBI's, which is the important thing".
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Gerry - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#86592) #
What happened to Santana. Rick Reed....duck!
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_Gwyn - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#86593) #
Gameday says Santana was only at 59 pitches ? Is he hurt ?
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Mike D - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#86594) #
Gid, I agree that RBIs aren't the "important thing," but the fact that a stat is overrated doesn't make it useless. RBIs reflect power, RISP average, and avoiding K's with RISP, all of which are valuable.

Of course RBI are, to a significant extent, dependent on the ability of those in front of you to get on base. But if everyone simply falls ass-backwards into RBI, then why can't Raul Mondesi ever get any?

I can't wait until RBI Efficiency tables become a commonplace stat in the sabremetric universe (see Batter's Box entry entitled "Plenty Of Ink.") Then we'll be able to properly assess a hitter's ability to drive in runs -- which somebody has to do.

Oh, and go Twins!
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_Scott Lucas - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#86595) #
Twins message board says Santana has leg cramps.
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_Jabonoso - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#86596) #
And Gardenhire brain cramps but Twins still 1-0
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Craig B - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#86597) #
Santana was cramping in his right leg.

Can I just say that that is weird, given that he's a lefty? If he cramps, I thoguht it would be on his pushoff leg. Must just be a freak thing.
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_Jurgen - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#86598) #
Watching Moose pitch, and the Yankees' defense botch play after play after play makes me think that he really should be the Cy Young runner up. (And in a perfect world, he'd be the winner. Thank goodness we don't live in a perfect world!) His DIPS are lower than Hudson, Loaiza, and Halladay, and, according to BP's quality of batters face, he's faced tougher lineups than all of them.
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_Jurgen - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#86599) #
That's supposed to be "quality of batters faced". I have no idea whether Mussina has faced more handsome players than the other guys. (Anyone have a quick stat for that?)
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_Matthew Elmslie - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#86600) #
Jurgen: the stat you want would be the GqA. Sorry, I don't have a formula.
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_gid - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#86601) #

Gid, I agree that RBIs aren't the "important thing," but the fact that a stat is overrated doesn't make it useless. RBIs reflect power, RISP average, and avoiding K's with RISP, all of which are valuable.


I agree with that. I guess my complaint is, if they're going to keep mentioning RBI, at least they could explain where they come from. Offhand I would think in Giambi's case it's just from hitting behind Jeeter and Soriano. Looking at the numbers, I guess that combined with 41HR would explain it. But, 140 strikeouts makes you wonder how many RBI he missed out on.


I can't wait until RBI Efficiency tables become a commonplace stat in the sabremetric universe (see Batter's Box entry entitled "Plenty Of Ink.") Then we'll be able to properly assess a hitter's ability to drive in runs -- which somebody has to do.


Thanks, I'll take a look.
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_Andrew Edwards - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#86602) #
Mike:

[stathead dogma]

Thing is, any studies I've seen say that there's no significant year-on-year skill associated with driving in runners, even once they're on base. Of course, Derek Jeter is better than Rey Ordonez at driving in runners, but that's just because Jeter is better than Rey at everything. Jeter, nor Rey, nor Barry, nor anyone else seems to show a consistent ability to hit better with RISP than they do without RISP.*

The handful of players who do consistently (i.e. year-to-year) hit better with RISP than without can be explained (using Occam's razor) by luck. Just like if you flip a coin a whole bunch of times, you'll eventually get 12 heads in a row, so too there will occasionally be players who hit better with RISP 12 seasons in a row.

Studies show there's still no reason to believe they'll do so again in the 13th, any more than there's reason to believe that your 13th coin flip is more likely to be another head.

RBI is just: skill as a hitter + teammates' skill + luck
1.7OPS, say, is: skill as a hitter + luck

Why not use 1.7OPS, and extract teammates' skill? Or even BA & HR, for that matter.

[/stathead dogma]

Oh, and...

Go Twins!

* With the caveat that all hitters improve slightly with runners on base, because of changes in pitching and fielding patterns.
[ Reply to This ]
_EddieZosky - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#86603) #
Acccording to ESPNRadio, Pat Gillick stepped down as GM of the Mariners today.
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_Matthew Elmslie - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#86604) #
Acccording to ESPNRadio, Pat Gillick stepped down as GM of the Mariners today.

I guarantee you we're going to start hearing whispers about him coming back to run the Jays. Maybe just from Those People on Those Other Message Boards, but we'll hear it.
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_Jabonoso - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#86605) #
La Troy will be a very good closer.
Wow super Shannon just had the catch of the day!
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_R Billie - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#86606) #
Eddie G makes it interesting in the 9th but the Twins take Game 1 from the Yankees 3-1! Congrats to Shannon on a good game.

Santana could have a cramp in his landing leg as well...there's as much strain on that leg when the pitcher comes down on it and follows through. If he landed funny on one of his pitches that could account for it.
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_Cristian - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#86607) #
You have to love the Yankees shoddy defence being exposed. How there was no error on Bernie for turning a single into a triple I'll never know. If only Jeter was given the chance to mess up a few plays, the day would have been perfect.
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_StephenT - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#86608) #
I thought it was a very good broadcast by Miller and Morgan (ESPN) today. e.g. Great analysis by Morgan of Mussina's pitch selection on Mientkiewicz in the 1st inning, good coverage of the sun and shadows by Miller, etc. I think this is the best crew were going to get in the next month. Next chance to hear them is tomorrow night's Braves/Cubs game.
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Craig B - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#86609) #
How there was no error on Bernie for turning a single into a triple I'll never know.

MLB Rules, Part 10

You can run at full speed toward second base on a ball hit deep into the rightfield corner, and not be given an error. Rule 10.13, Note 3 : "Mental mistakes or misjudgments are not to be scored as errors unless specifically covered in the rules."

Except where stated otherwise specifically, errors are only given for fumbles, muffs, or wild throws.
[ Reply to This ]
_Cristian - Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#86610) #
Thanks Craig. If I want to call myself an educated baseball fan I should really dust off that rulebook.
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_graded_card_sal - Thursday, November 06 2003 @ 01:45 PM EST (#86611) #
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Division Series: Tuesday, September 30th, 2003 | 31 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.