That's very cool, Gwyn. Can you teach the rest of us how to do it?

Yup - I'll send out an email with the instructions.

It will only let one poll run at a time which is a bit of a pain. It's a teaser free version of a commercial program. It's not bad until something better comes along though.

Just to make my prediction known and to let all redicule me when it proves false, I went with the A's.

Great idea Gwyn.

I can just feel the love for the Yankees. 101 wins is not enough to win over the ZLC.

Yankees. Makes me ill to say so, but that's who I think will win.

If I vote for the Yankees for anything, I am convinced that a bolt of lightning will strike me dead on the spot.

Boston's a better team on paper, and what should be a good, dominant bullpen can't continue to be that shaky--and Jeter can't keep up those Ozzie Smith playoff acrobatics.

The clever chaps in Vegas, have the ALCS lined up this way:

Yankees 2.3-1
Red Sox 3.5-1
A's 4-1
Twins 7.75-1

No respect for those Twinkies....

http://economics.about.com
The sports futures trading market at TradeSports gives the following probabilities of winning. I took a linear combination of the "Bid" and "Ask" so the probabilities add up to 100:

Yankees 40.44%
Red Sox 28.33%
A's 20.89%
Twins 10.33%

So you're right.. the market doesn't have any love for the Twinkies.

Mike

Vegas have the Twins at 31-4 to win?

I'm getting on the phone. No playoff team is *ever* 31-4 to win an LCS unless they've got the '98 Yankees in round one.

Geez, William Hill have Minnesota at 3.20 to beat the Yankees. A lot of money is going to ride on the Yankees at 1.38. So to bet the Yanks, you need to think the Yankees are 73% likely to win a five-game series from Minnesota. Wow.

But even if you have Minnesota at 3.20-1 to beat the Yankees, you'd still have to think they were nearly 5-2 against in the LCS versus Boston or Oakland not to take the 31-4 bet in Vegas.

http://economics.about.com
TradeSports gives the Yankees around a 69% chance of winning against the Twins and gives Oakland around a 44% chance of beating the Red Sox.

Cheers,

Mke

If I were a betting man I'd take Oakland against Boston. Besides Pedro, Boston's pitching is really thin.

DYK -- In the last eight playoff series involving the Yankees, the "better" team (i.e. the one with more regular season wins) has lost every one.

So, the evil ones can't possibly win it this year. :)

Geez, William Hill have Minnesota at 3.20 to beat the Yankees

Sports Interaction had the same line yesterday. Hence I am a Twins fan for for the next few days for solid financial reasons

Minnesota over the Yankees. Red Sox over the As. Red Sox over Minnesota. Stars of the AL post-season: Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez and Manny Ramirez. You read it here first.

There's no NLCS post, but for what it's worth. Cubs over Braves. Giants over Marlins. Giants over Cubs. Stars of the NL post-season: Sidney Ponson, Barry Bonds and Carlos Zambrano. I know I'm out on a limb with the Bonds selection, but why not live dangerously?

very much in the Mike Green bandwagon.
Just that the red Sox will need some pitching behind Pedro, if Wakefield knuckleball do not butterfly away and in the zone in the cold winds of Oakland, and if Lowe...
we could have an improbable twins-A's ALCS, but I am not confortable with Lilly pitching under pressure.
One thing is certain it will be FUN to watch...

The thing about the playoffs is that it's such a crapshoot that there's not much point in figuring odds when making your predictions. What I do is to figure out what I'd rather be right about. Well, for the American League, anyway. In the National League my policy is to pick the Braves. I always pick the Braves. Until they stop making the postseason, I will pick the Braves, and eventually, I will be right. (And the Giants will beat the Marlins.)

In the AL? Ah, I don't know. Boston over Minnesota, and then the Braves beat the Sox in the Series.

baseball prospectus are doing the odds thing as well. Here is their take:

Playoff Odds Report by Chance to win World Series

Team, Div, LCS, WS
New York Yankees, 69%, 40%, 27%
Boston Red Sox, 59%, 32%, 22%
Atlanta Braves, 63%, 43%, 18%
Oakland Athletics, 41%, 19%, 11%
San Francisco Giants, 56%, 24%, 7%
Chicago Cubs, 37%, 17%, 6%
Florida Marlins, 44%, 15%, 4%
Minnesota Twins, 31%, 10%, 4%

When the playoffs involve teams that I don't particularly care about, then I root for the team that either has never won it all or has gone the longest since they won it all. (The Angels winning last year was a very nice surprise)

Therefore I am rooting for a Cubs/Red Sox World Series.

With the Cubs as World Champions, of course. :)

I want to see an A's/Marlins World Series, not only because I'm an A's fan/Giants disliker (hate is such a strong word), but also because I want to hear the collective shriek coming out of Fox's corporate headquarters.

Robert, I have no feeling one way or another about the Red Sox/A's series. Either today or Tuesday I'll post a "How to beat the A's/How the A's can win," where I will give a little more analysis than one would hopefully find on ESPN.com, Primer, or Baseball Prospectus. Hey, I said "hopefully."

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/fantasy/bracket_challenge/index.jsp
MLB.com has a free-entry contest to predict the entire playoffs. While the bragging rights are somewhat less than those awarded for making the correct predictions here in the Box, they will grease your palms with $4,999 if you win. COMN to enter.

$4,999? Forget it. I enter no contest with a prize less than $5,000.

Also, it appears that my "How to beat the A's" will not go forward. I know how sorry you all are to hear that ...