Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Thanks to Pistol for alerting us to Baseball America's ranking of the NY-Penn League's Top 20 Prospects. Non-subscribers can read this tidbit about the amazing Auburn Doubledays:

The Blue Jays stocked Auburn with a plethora of college talent, and the team went 56-18 to run away with the league's best record despite the promotions of first-round shortstop Aaron Hill and righthander Jamie Vermilyea. Hill ranked second in the top 20 on a list that included four of his teammates: righty Josh Banks, lefty Kurt Isenberg, shortstop Juan Peralta and first baseman Vito Chiaravalloti. Four other Doubledays -- Vermilyea, third baseman Ryan Roberts and righties Shaun Marcum and Bubbie Buzachero -- also received strong consideration.

I won't reproduce what BA says about each of these players in the subscriber-only section, of course -- though I do recommend buying such a subscription to anyone with a strong interest in minor-league and college baseball; it's an invaluable resource. But what I will do is reproduce the positions at which these junior Jays appeared on the Top 20, in order to vent a little about a publication I otherwise really like:

2. Aaron Hill, SS
5. Josh Banks, RHP
7. Kurt Isenberg, LHP
16. Juan Peralta, SS/2B
19. Vito Chiaravalotti, 1B

Now, does anyone else think it's strange that the guy who won the league's first-ever Triple Freakin' Crown ranks 19th on the list of league prospects? Behind 3B Claudio Arias of the Lowell Spinners, who batted a robust .262 with a 7/55 BB/K rate? Big Vito comes with caveats, of course: He's a big ol' slugger with questionable defensive skills who hasn't yet faced really sharp pitching. But the NY-Penn was the toughest hitters' league in all of organized baseball last year; its batters posted a circuit-average line of .245/.325/.348 (according to Mike Wolverton's minor-league EqA charts); Vito went .351/.469/.605. Don't you think that ought to be worth something more than 19th place?

The reason, of course, is that despite promising progress over the last couple of years, BA is still largely the domain of analysts who rate athleticism and potential equal to, if not higher than, performance. Chiaravalotti had a tremendous college career at Richmond; even in his injury-plagued senior year, he did very well. It's not like he came out of nowhere. But because he's not athletic, toolsy or a high draft pick, some folks are unable to look past their own assumptions and appreciate that this guy owns the strike zone and can mash the ball.

Vito will of course not carry a 1.074 OPS through his minor-league career, and maybe he'll only ever be a bush-league slugger who can't hit a AAA curveball. But I don't understand why his performance thus far doesn't rank him higher in the minds of prospect predictors. Tell you what, I'll take Vito against Claudio for the next few seasons and we'll see who does better.

Posted by Jordan on Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 01:32 AM EDT.

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Craig B - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#91064) #

By the way, Jordan, just to ratchet up your blood perssure another notch or two... Claudio Arias also made 23 errors in 46 games at third base for Lowell.

_Jordan - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#91065) #

Oy gevalt.

Craig B - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#91066) #

Arias is about 18 months younger than Chiaravalloti (b. May 1982 versus October 1980) assuming his papers are accurate and correct (Arias is from the Dominican Republic).

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#91067) #

In fairness, Arias is a one and a half years younger. Looking at all their selections, age seems to be an important factor, as it should be. On the other hand, as Gideon points out, Vito's performance was so far above league (and was consistent with his college performance), that he is better than the 19th best prospect in the league.

What it does mean is that Vito's time is now. He turns 23 this fall, and will hopefully start in Dunedin next year. If he can pull a Mark Teixeira and tear up the FSL and the Eastern League next year, he will have a shot. Otherwise, it will be an uphill battle for him to make it to the show.

Interesting that neither Vermilyea nor Marcum made their list. Both absolutely overpowered the league, but because they are relievers, they are not considered prospects by BA. I'd bet on either one of them having a major league career rather than Arias, for instance.

_Jabonoso - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#91068) #

Who is Claudio?
I lean more over BA side ( how safe...) about some performances and the prospect projection from a multidimensional anlysis.
You can bring that John-Ford collegiate performance was Bondian, still I would not rate him as our best OF prospect and so on.
Don Vito rigth now is not much better as a prospect than Jason Perry, as they are projected as borderline major leaguers ( a spectrum from Kevin Witt to Paul Konerko, best case scenario... ).
From the Pulasky team they choose only Robinson Diaz a solid catcher prospect ( as solid as any short season player could be )

_Jabonoso - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#91069) #

Claudio Arias OK

_Jordan - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#91070) #

Because they are relievers, they are not considered prospects by BA. I'd bet on either one of them having a major league career rather than Arias, for instance

You ain't just whistlin' Dixie. (Forgive me; I've always wanted to say that). In fact, check out the Doubledays' complete 2003 relief numbers:

Jeremy Harper, RHP, 22
5-1, 3.79, 19 G, 1 GS, 40 IP, 28 H, 18 BB, 36 K, 2 HR, 21.6% KBF

Davis Romero, RHP, 20
4-1, 2 Sv, 2.38, 30 G, 0 GS, 41 IP, 31 H, 8 BB, 53 K, 1 HR, 32.1% KBF

Brian Reed, RHP, 22
1-2, 1 Sv, 1.99, 28 G, 0 GS, 40 IP, 29 H, 11 BB, 53 K, 0 HR, 32.3% KBF

Bubbie Buzachero, RHP, 22
1-1, 13 Sv, 1.54, 30 GH, 0 GS, 35 IP, 25 H, 7 BB, 47 K, 1 HR, 34.5% KBF

Shawn Marcum, RHP, 21
1-0, 8 Sv, 1.32, 21 G, 0 GS, 34 IP, 15 H, 7 BB, 47 K, 1 HR, 37.9% KBF

Jamie Vermilyea, RHP, 21
Auburn 2003
5-1, 0 Sv, 2.37, 9 G, 2 GS, 30 IP, 22 H, 5 BB, 53 K, 0 HR, 44.5% KBF

Auburn's bullpen was absolutely ridiculous this season. Like Vermilyea, it's be interesting to see some of those guys fast-tracked to Dunedin and even Manchester if they do well enough.

_R Billie - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#91071) #

I think with Vito (as with the entire Auburn team) we have to keep in mind his age/experience in relation to the entire league. On Auburn alone (which is virtually all college aged players) he's probably at least a year or two older than most. I think he's two years older than Aaron Hill or Josh Banks. When you consider that a lot of the teams in the NYP league employ high school draftees and are younger in general than Auburn, that compounds things.

It's a more impressive performance than Jason Perry in Rookie ball. But until we see the numbers against good inside fastballs and sharper offspeed stuff and better control then we can take it as a tremendous half season but not necessarily indicative of greatness.

I think it's an acknowledgement of Vito that he made the list at all considering that BA projects him as a DH. It's going to be up to him to prove himself at each level. We'll see how he and several others do for Dunedin in the first half of next season. If like Bush, Adams, and DeJong they prove enough to reach Manchester in their first full pro-season then we can start to take them more seriously.

Pistol - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#91072) #

Off topic again, but Gabe Gross was the Player of the Day at BP today. Usually they choose the player based on something they did the day before, which makes him seem like an odd choice. Did something happen with Gross that was missed?

_Nigel - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#91073) #

I take it as a huge endorsement of Big Vito's season that he made 19 on the list. Let's face it, as a 15th round draft pick, even the Jays clearly thought he was a longshot (something like the 450th overall pick). So, to have gone from remote prospect to 19th place in his half season at Auburn is pretty remarkable. As I said on another thread, Vito's made himself into a nice shiny object (at the very least) from a 15th round pick in a short period of time and that's remarkable. I think Vito's a tough ranking challenge in that two months ago, the market said he was a 15th round pick, and now after a monster season (albeit short season) mitigated by his age how do you rank that. I think 19 is pretty fair. Now, if he does this again at A,AA next year and he still gets a low ranking because of his lack of physical tools, well then let her rip!

_Andy Martin - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#91074) #

In regards to the Auburn team being old for the league. I was curious about this and so I calculated the average age of each teams roster. (This was based on end of season rosters and looking at the players age as of June 30th 2003.)

Team (Affiliation) - Avg Age of Roster
----------------------------------------------
Tri City Valley Cats (Astros) - 21.6
Mahoning Valley Scrappers (Indians) - 21.6
New Jersey Cardinals (Cardinals) - 21.6
Aberdeen Ironbirds (Orioles) - 21.5
Brooklyn Cyclones (Mets) - 21.5
Auburn Doubledays (Blue Jays) - 21.4
Batavia Muckdogs (Phillies) - 21.4
Williamsport Crosscutters (Pirates) - 21.4
Oneonta Tigers (Tigers) - 21.4
Hudson Valley Renegades (Devil Rays) - 21.3
Vermont Expos (Expos) - 21.3
Jamestown Jammers ( Marlins ) - 21.2
Lowell Spinners (Red Sox) - 21.1
Staten Island Yankees (Yankees) - 21.0
---------------------------------------------
League Average - 21.4

The NY-Penn is overwhelmingly a college oriented league or at least most players aren't straight out of high school. There are few teenagers, although those teenagers are more heavily represented in the BA list of top prospects.

In terms of age the Doubledays are exactly league average. The only thing exceptional about them was their performance.

Craig B - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#91075) #

So from that would deduce that Big Vito is about 14-15 months older than the average player in the NY-P league (Big Vito was 22 years 8 months on June 30, the average NY-P player 21 years 5 months)

_Jordan - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#91076) #

Not disputing that Vito was a little old for the league ... just saying that I don't think 15 months is enough of an advantage to produce a Triple Crown, or that it's a good enough reason to downgrade the guy so much.

Put differently, if Vito had been 21 and a half years old in June 2003, where would he have ranked on the list? BA didn't mention his age in putting him 19th; only his defence was cited as a negative.

Anyway, lists are subjective by nature, and I won't make a further deal out of it ... but I still wouldn't trade Vito for Claudio.

_Nigel - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#91077) #

Jordan, I agree to some extent about the age issue. In and of itself it does not bother me too much. I look more closely at the draft as an issue that tempers my enthusiasm. Everyone had a shot at Vito and he fell to the 15th round. Clearly all teams thought Big Vito had some limitations. I'm not saying that later round draft picks can't be great prospects, it's just that I need to see results over a longer period of time (particularly when the results we have seen are in a league where he is a little old).

_Orlando Hudson - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#91078) #

I look more closely at the draft as an issue that tempers my enthusiasm. Everyone had a shot at Vito and he fell to the 15th round.

Ahem.

_Mike Piazza - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#91079) #

um. hello.

_Nigel - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#91080) #

Orlando and Chris, as I said, I am in no way disparaging the possibility that later round draft picks can be great prospects. I think you need to be careful about saying that here given the small sample size and his age. To label him a top prospect right now you have to say that all major league scouting departments (including the Jays, I might add) pegged Vito wrong. That, in fact, may turn out to be the case, but I need to see more evidence before I leap to call all the scouts wrong.

_Scott - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#91081) #

Off topic--but for BA subscribers, the magazine also did a prospect showdown between Grady Sizemore and Alexis Rios. BA gave Rios the nod due to his projected power which got a 70 (on a 20-80 scale) compared to Sizemore who got a 60. Rios also got a 60 for throwing, doubling up the 30 for Sizemore. All other aspects of their game were similar.

robertdudek - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#91082) #

Nigel, they did (peg Vito wrong) to some degree. I'd bet that if they were redrafting 2003 with the benefit of the just completed 2003 season, Vito would go anywhere between the 4th and 8th round.

_Nigel - Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#91083) #

Robert, if Vito even holds his own next year at a level more appropriate for his age, say high A or AA then you're probably even selling Vito a little short with respect to how high his true draft position might be. As I said, I am totally prepared to accept (with the weight of enough evidence) that scouts can get it wrong. I'm only cautioning to be wary of doing so too soon based on Vito's circumstances.

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