My choices would be Ken Macha in the AL over Joe Torre, and Jack McKeon over Bobby Cox in the NL.

Tony Pena has pieced together some very good results, but his inability to put a decent bullpen together from quite reasonable talent has cost the Royals the AL Central.

Macha has been terrific. The A's have the best defense in the AL, Macha has picked the right players to play, they are winning close games. Torre has been the steady hand again.

Jack McKeon has been amazing. The Marlins are 69-48 under McKeon... the man is a genius at handling pitchers (Tim Spooneybarger's complaints notwithstanding perhaps). Generally, I don't like picking a mid-year hire but he has been terrific. Bobby Cox has done it without the big-name starters this time. Other deserving guys are Felipe Alou and Jim Tracy.

If I had to vote:

AL

1. Macha
2. Torre
3. Lou Piniella

NL

1. McKeon
2. Cox
3. Jim Tracy

http://economics.about.com
AL

1. Ken Macha
2. Tony Pena
3. Joe Torre

NL

1. Jack McKeon
2. Frank Robinson
3. Felipe Alou

Without a single known quantity in his starting staff, Pena led the Royals to meaningful ball in September. Macha has so much more talent to work with that he gets edged out here...I don't like the way Torre handled his bullpen. We'll see if everyone's healthy in the playoffs. With the "talent" they have in their pitching staff and infield, the D-Rays only win when they play smart and hard. They've won more than anyone could have reasonably expected.

AL
1. Tony Pena
2. Ken Macha
3. Lou Piniella

Ranking the top three in the NL is pretty easy, I think.

NL
1. Jack McKeon
2. Felipe Alou
3. Bobby Cox

AL

1. Tony Pena
2. Lou Piniella
3. Joe Torre

NL

1. Felipe Alou
2. Frank Robinson
3. Jack McKeon

Pena and Piniella inspired their teams to overachieve. Ken Macha and Bob Melvin have both had fine rookie seasons, but were blessed with better rosters. I put Torre ahead of them because Joe's had to juggle around injuries and overcome the distractions of a nasty public squabble with his Boss.

My NL vote is for Alou, because I thought the game had passed him by while he was napping as the Tigers' bench coach, but he proved me completely wrong. Robby has dealt with impossible working conditions, earning him the slight edge over McKeon.

Considering the ages of my NL picks, there may be hope for me yet.

AL:

1. Tony Pena
2. Grady Little
3. Jerry Manuel

Admit it: what Manuel has done with the White Sox has been nothing short of amazing. It takes real talent for that team to have missed the playoffs so adroitly.

NL:

1. Felipe Alou
2. Frank Robinson
3. Tony LaRussa

I loathe Larussa, but they've been ravaged again by injuries -- part of the game, I undertstand -- and he's kept 'em in the race.

AL: Pena, Torre, Trammell

KC is seven games over .500 despite a -2 run differential AND despite a -.029 OPS differential that indicates the run differential should be much worse than it is. Extraordinary good luck? Probably. But I'll give the manager credit because I'm feeling generous. Congrats to Torre for putting up with all the bs, and to Trammell because he deserves better.

NL: McKeon, Cox, Robinson

Carlos Tosca...just kidding, please, stop hitting me!

I think Frank Robinson deserves the award. He was absolutely despised by everyone except may the batboy but should get credit for keeping a team in contention through the dog-days with the adverse conditions they were repeatedly met with. But he won't win it. The Expos have faultered greatly in the last month and their preformance on the road has been god awful, some of that blame (probably deservingly) has to fall on the manager.

Felipe Alou, come on down!

Carlos Tosca...just kidding, please, stop hitting me!

I think Frank Robinson deserves the award in the NL. He was absolutely despised by everyone except may the batboy but should get credit for keeping a team in contention through the dog-days with the adverse conditions they were repeatedly met with. But he won't win it. The Expos have faultered greatly in the last month and their preformance on the road has been god awful, some of that blame (probably deservingly) has to fall on the manager.

...Felipe Alou, come on down!

While there is no doubt Pena has faltered with his bullpen handling over the last month, what he was able to do over the first five months of the year with a team that many expected to be, maybe, 20 games under .500, is quite phenomenal. It's doubtful the Royals would have won even if Pena hadn't made some poor decisions over the last few weeks. While the Royals success is largely a product of their hitting with RISP, and just pure luck, it's hard to say that Pena has not had a role in that. Additionally, if you're not going to credit a manager there, it's hard to come up with another basis for deciding the award.

1. Tony Pena
2. Ken Macha
3. Grady Little

In the NL, there are a variety of candidates who deserve consideration. McKeon, LaRussa, Robinson, Alou and Cox are all viable candidates, and you could likely make an argument for Dusty Baker as the Cubbies are 3 games better than their expected record and are 27-16 in 1 run games. In the end, I have to give it to Alou. The Giants are surving despite the loss of Jeff Kent and the underperformance of Alfonzo and they are 7 games better than their expected record, which is the best mark in the majors. Robinson comes in second place, as he managed to keep the Expos in the race up until about a week ago despite a brutal schedule and no September callups. Third place is between Cox and McKeon, and while 12 division titles in a row is no easy feat, Cox is 17-24 in one run games while McKeon is 27-23 and has Florida in the thick of things, which noone expected at the beginning of the year.

1. Felipe Alou
2. Frank Robinson
3. Jack McKeon

I hope that Tosca doesn't win manager of the year. He's been all right, but he doesn't play Phelps enough and makes far too many pitching changes. If anything, JP shoul get exec. of the year.

The two rookies, Macha and Melvin, have both been very good--no worse in the win-lose categories than the more expensive men they replaced. Look for either of them to show up here in future years. As for this year, I give Torre credit for keeping up appearances despite Big Stein breathing down his neck more so than usual. And I didn't expect much from the Twins this year (despite some people picking them for the World Series), so I give Ron points for that. But Tony wins for surpassing all expectations.

AL
1. Pena
2. Torre
3. Gardenhire

In the NL, Dusty Baker deserves credit for his sensible handling of the Cubs' precious bounty of young arms. Honestly, if I were the GM I'd be having one of those J.P. style "we hired you to implement our plan" conversations. And if Prior and Wood were still throwing 130 pitches through 7 innings, I'd fire him. Seeing Jimy Williams continue to platoon Ensberg makes me think the club would be better off with not-a-brain-surgeon Dierker. And when will the Phillies ditch Bowa? This club has way too much talent to be struggling for a Wild Card spot. If the Boss does fire Torre, the Phillies should scoop him up.

NL
1. Alou
2. McKeon
3. Cox

Here are my belated thoughts:

I usually use three criteria when figuring out who I believe to be Manager of the Year. First, I narrow the field down to those teams who won more than they lost. My thinking is that a manager who leads a non-contending team can't be terribly valuable, can he? Second, I figure out what the team's Actual Winning Percentage - Expected Winning Percentage is, the latter determined by the Pythagorean formula. I think that some of the difference between these two numbers can be attributed to the skipper of the team (for any curious parties, the Jays' ExpWP is .534 and their actual WP is .519...what portion of that is Tosca's fault?) Lastly, I subjectively figure out which teams exceeded pre-season expectations.

I mashed those three together to determine my vote:

AL Manager of the Year:
1) Tony Pena...the Royals contended for much of the year and came out of nowhere to do so. They exceeded ExpWP by 24 points.
2) Joe Torre...the story here is the Yanks exceeding ExpWP by 31 points.
3) Ron Gardenhire...many figured the Twins would repeat their success from last season but they really had to turn it up in the second half to do so. They exceeded ExpWP by 28 points.

NL Manager of the Year:
1) Felipe Alou...exceeded ExpWP by an astounding 48 points.
2) Bobby Cox...many felt the Braves weren't supposed to win the NL East yet again. They exceeded ExpWP by 26 points.
3) Jack McKeon...would be MOY if he only managed for the entire season. Frank Robinson is also right there, with many analysts surprised by a .516 WP.

For fun, using similar criteria, my picks for worst manager of the year would be:

AL: Bob Melvin...with a lineup like that, the Mariners should have been much better. They are 32 points under ExpWP.

NL: Jimy Williams...some people picked them as possible WS contenders. They still might make the playoffs but Jimy's obsession with using the whole roster is costing them. How can he justify playing Geoff Freaking Blum over Morgan Ensberg for so long? They're under ExpWP by 57 points.

Spicol... look up, look waaaayyyy up.

By the way, a propos of nothing, the Jays are 140-126 under Tosca, a .526 winning percentage. If the Jays were to look elsewhere for some reason (maybe after the 2004 season?) down the road, I'd have to think he has guaranteed himself another shot at a job barring a disaster of Tim Johnson-like proportions.

Tosca has been smart, polished, and professional, and earned good reviews as a teacher. And won with a young team. That's a fine resume...