I like Jason Schmidt, but I've got to say HLH and Gagne.

AL:

1. Roy Halladay
2. Tim Hudson
3. Pedro Martinez
4. Mike Mussina
5. Esteban freakin' Loaiza

NL:

1. Jason Schmidt
2. Eric Gagne
3. Mark Prior
4. Livan Hernandez
5. Javier Vazquez

The race among these 5 is extremely close IMO.

AL:

1. Roy Halladay
2. Tim Hudson
3. Johan Santana
4. Pedro Martinez
5. Esteban Loaiza

NL:

1. Eric Gagne
2. Jason Schmidt
3. Russ Ortiz
4. Mark Prior
5. Javier Vazquez

I'm probably giving Ortiz too much credit, but he filled some big shoes admirably. Likewise, I don't think Santana is "better" than Pedro, but his team's fortunes turned around when he became a starter.

I think the AL Cy is still completely up in the air among the top 3... so much so that it's going to come down largely to last starts.

I think Halladay has the lead, it's his to lose.

For the NL Cy, I don't think that Eric Gagne has been the most *valuable* pitcher, but he has been lights-out and deserves the award on sheer insane dominance. I'd say that Schmidt, Prior, and Mota are also worthy candidates, and Livan Hernandez and Javier Vazquez and Billy Wagner as well... I don't know how I'd vote down from Gagne yet.

Opponents are hitting .136/.199/.181 against Gagne in 265 at-bats. Lefties strike out against Gagne in about 60% of their at-bats.

AL:

1. Tim Hudson
2. Esteban Loaiza
3. Roy Halladay

NL:

1. Eric Gagne
2. Mark Prior
3. Jason Schmidt

Boo, Gizzi. Third place is just gratuitous.

Hey, I think Schmidt is having a great year, but I think Prior and Gagne have been better.

Gitz, I think the "boo" was for your AL picks.

But I'm on board with your three.

AL:
Tim Hudson
Roy Halladay
Pedro Martinez
Mike Mussina
Esteban Loaiza

I think Halladay will win, and that doesn't bother me a bit. It's pretty close. I think Pedro has been the best pitcher, but having only 183 innings hurts him.

NL:
Mark Prior
Jason Schmidt
Eric Gagne
Javier Vazquez
Kevin Brown

Any of the top three, really.

AL
1. Roy Halladay
2. Tim Hudson
3. Esteban Loiaza

NL
1. Eric Gagne
2. Jason Schmidt
3. Brandon Webb

AL: Hudson/Halladay/Loaiza
NL: Prior/Schmidt/Can'tBringMyselfToVoteForACloser

AL Top 5
1) Hudson
2) Halladay
3) Pedro
4) Mussina
5) Actually, I'll leave it at a top four listing, because I can't avoid putting you know who up here any longer

NL Top 5
1) Gagne
2) Prior
3) Schmidt
4) L.Hernandez
5) For the sake of uniformity, I'll stop here.

Ben and Scott, are you kidding me? Your dislike of Loaiza runs so thick that you all have Pedro and his 183 innings over Loaiza? Nobody would ever claim that Loaiza is the better pitcher, but the Cy Young is not a lifetime achievement award. Esteban has been better, overall, than Pedro this year, whether you like him or not.

Really, as Scott says, as long as Hudson or Halladay wins, I'll be OK. I am not on board with Pedro, though, and if he or Mussina or Foulke wins, that blows.

Oh, and Mick: yes, I know what Mike D. was referring to ... my response was my attempt to be "clever."

Your dislike of Loaiza runs so thick that you all have Pedro and his 183 innings over Loaiza?

I agree with this point. With all due respect, the most puzzling Pedro tribute in today's threads is Scott Lucas' MVP list, which lists Pedro at #8 (with Vernon at #10 and Doc off the list). Even if we set aside the fact that the criteria specifically calls for longevity, there is just no way that Pedro's 183 innings were of such value to the Red Sox that he's meant more to his team's success than have Halladay and Loaiza -- or any number of excellent everyday position players -- to theirs .

Gitz, I think we need to consider that Pedro pitches in a hitter's park - that and he has had to face Toronto and New York quite often. Esteban has faced Boston and Toronto once each, and has had the weak hitting AL Central to beat up on. In fact I can't see how Loaiza would rank ahead of Pedro unless you put a lot of weight on close games and win-loss record.

Meant to say "durability," not "longevity." But you get the point.

AL:

1. Hudson
2. Halladay
3. Martinez
4. Loaiza
5. Mussina

The remarkable thing for me is how consistant the top 5 are. I believe I could turn 1 and 2 around twice before the season is over, that's how close it is in my opinion. Martinez is presenting his typical conundrum for CY voters: do you like a larger number of excellent innings or a smaller number of Pedro innings (I mean really, if he had piched anywhere in the neighbourhood of 220 innings we would not be having this debate). This year the innings differential is just too big for me.

NL:

1.Prior
2.Schmidt
3.Gagne
4.Webb
5.L. Hernandez

I should have said "consitant among the posters". I think it's a pretty unusual year where you can all agree on the top 5.

Goodness. Little did I know that people would be cross-checking my CY and MVP lists for consistency.

And I certainly don't hate Loaiza, though I wish he'd pitched this way while still in Texas. I originally had Loaiza ranked ahead of Pedro, then noticed that he had pitched 21% of his innings against Detroit. Back those out and Loaiza's ERA jumps to 3.37. Still good, but not "wow" good. And, he's pitched pretty terribly in September with a division title on the line. So I decided Loaiza's four extra starts weren't quite enough to top Pedro's general superiority. In retrospect, I might put Loaiza 4th. Feel free to disagree, but that was my thought process.

As for the inconsistency with my MVP list, I just didn't spend much time on the MVP list past the first three or four names. I should have reduced the number of names chosen.

Esteban has been better, overall, than Pedro this year, whether you like him or not.

The difference between Pedro and Loaiza is 30 innings... and 19 runs! (It looks worse for EL if you're only interested in Earned runs. The difference amounts to a 6.90 ERA -- Loaiza's actually allowed 50% more earned runs than Pedro).

Given that, I think -- by the numbers -- Pedro has been as valuable to the Sox as Loaiza, maybe more, and that's not even taking into account the other factors Robert references.

I don't really understand the justification for ranking Loaiza ahead of Pedro, based on Loaiza's extra 30 innings, but not ranking Halladay ahead of Loaiza, despite Halladay's extra *40* innings.

My AL picks:

Hudson
Martinez
Halladay
Mussina
Loaiza

I really wanted to put Halladay ahead of Pedro, and would have done so based on the argument that Pedro's (comparative) inability to go deep into games was a real drawback on a team with a shaky bullpen, just as it is for (say) Kelvim Escobar.

But, the 15 Unearned runs Halladay allowed jump off his statline at me. Looking back at the game log, should the Opening Day grand slam really "not count" just because he "should" have already been out of the game? Halladay has allowed *twice* as many runs as Pedro, 52 more runs in 69 more innings.

I do think it's really close, though, close enough for things like strength of opposition schedule, defensive support and what percentage of each's inherited runners were stranded to make the difference for any of my Top 5. (Are there stats out there that track the latter?). If Halladay's numbers are "skewed" a bit because he's forced to work out of jams that Loaiza doesn't have to because of guys like Marte and Gordon, that should be considered, too.

In any case, if Oakland really is, as suggested in the MVP thread, the best defensive team in the AL, I'd probably change my "vote".

Robert,

I think you overrate ball-park effects. So Pedro pitches in a hitter's park. Big deal. Hudson pitches in a pitcher's park. Big deal. This hasn't helped Aaron Harang or Kirk Dresendorfor or Willie Adams turn into one of the best pitchers in the league. Specious? Probably. And pitching at Fenway didn't seem to prevent Clemens from pitching lights out while he was there. So Loaiza faced the Tigers a bunch of times. Big deal. He still had to beat them. (And it should be noted he lost two 1-0 games.)

I will grant that I did not realize how well Pedro has pitched, but I just cannot get past the fact that, as a starter, he has logged around 60 innings fewer than Hudson and Loaiza, and 90 fewer than Halladay. That number is too large to make up, in my mind, and if you're going to use the number of games played by Pujols as a rationale for giving him the MVP over Bonds, then it seems you should apply the same formula here, regardless of pitcher's parks, hitter's parks, light schedules, etc.

Pedro has pitched only 30 fewer innings than Loaiza, Gitz. You can still make your point; just saying the inning differential is less than what you stated.

I just cannot get past the fact that, as a starter, he has logged around 60 innings fewer than Hudson and Loaiza, and 90 fewer than Halladay

Not true. See above.

D'oh! Stop pointing out the facts to me!

To add to my last post (hit the button too quickly), I can understand (while disagreeing with) the argument that Loaiza ranks ahead of Pedro because of the innings difference. The same argument, though, "should" rank Halladay over Loaiza, because Loaiza's IP total is closer to Pedro's than it is to Leroy's.

Oh, yeah: from the beginning (well, about a week ago), I said I don't mind if Halladay, Hudson, or Loaiza wins. I sure wish Foulke hadn't blown those saves for Huddy; if Hudson wins his final start, he'll have 16 wins -- not the 20 he would if Foulke hadn't blown the saves.

George, you make an excellent point, especially since I remind Robert to be consistent with his use of games/innings.

Therefore, I hereby amend my official non-offical Cy Young ballot:

1. Tim Hudson
2. Roy Halladay
3. Esteban Loaiza

That is all.

Cannot argue with that assessment, Gitz.

I really like Ron Shandler's BPV. This formula takes account of dominance, command, opponent's batting average [barely] and homeruns allowed.

I also believe that it is important to use innings pitched in any assessment of potential Cy Young candidates. So, I have multiplied the pitchers BPV score by (IP/200). 200 innings is just a number pulled from the air, so I am not proposing this as a metric. I do, however, think that it is a decent benchmark. For example, if a pitcher has 220 innings pitched, I multiply his BPV score by 1.1. Here are the top 15 in each league, by my count:

NL
1. Prior 158
2. Schmidt 148
3. Schilling 143
4. Vazquez 135
5. Brown 117
6. Wood 107
7. Gagne 103
8. Hernandez 92
9. Webb 91
10.Sheets 87
11.Maddux 84
12.Millwood 83
13.Zambrano 80
14.Williams 78
15.Smoltz 73

AL
1. Halladay 182
2. Martinez 139
3. Mussina 138
4. Loaiza 120
5. Hudson 99
6. Clemens 96
7. Pettitte 96
8. Wells 93
9. Santana 88
10.Mulder 81
11.Radke 80
12.Colon 79
13.Timlin 66
14.Wakefield 66
15.Pineiro 62

Take it for what its worth, I guess.

That number is too large to make up, in my mind, and if you're going to use the number of games played by Pujols as a rationale for giving him the MVP over Bonds, then it seems you should apply the same formula here, regardless of pitcher's parks, hitter's parks, light schedules, etc.

If you're going to be taking credit for my points, Gitz, at least have the good sense to post it where I can't find it.

Jamie Moyer got his 20th win last night. His numbers now stand at:

20-7, 209 IP, 3.27 ERA

And _nobody_ is talking about him as a Cy Young candidate.

Weird.

Well, his ERA numbers are helped immensely by the huge park and fleet outfield in Seattle. But he is certainly one of the top pitchers.

I actually might put Moyer ahead of Loaiza, looking at him again. He's helped by the park and defence, but has been outstanding in September, trying to keep his team in the race. I think that the way he shuts down the opposition, as a really soft-tossing Lefty, also gives him extra value -- I suspect he makes his reliever like Benitez and Rhodes better, because of the contrast in styles.

Neyer gave Moyer "props" in his column yesterday, though he again mentioned the thing about him becoming the oldest player to win 20 games for the first time. Neyer's mentioned that before as being remarkable, but the previous "record" had been set the year before by David Wells, who was only a year younger...

Speaking of Wells, does anyone else find it amazing he's on the verge of picking up his 200th career win? He'll wind up with more wins than Stieb, Key, Stewart, Alexander, Hentgen... I hadn't realized he was anywhere near that level.

Gitz,

I don't think I overrate the influence of park factors.

I also don't believe my rationale for Pujols over Bonds is inconsistent with my assessment of Pedro Martinez. Boston is a really good hitters park and Pedro has the best ERA in the league, but Halladay has him beat by a considerable margin in IP (Loaiza does not). Hudson I put second on the strength of his great performances versus seattle, Boston and New York (which I noted in a recent entry).

I'm sorry but the Tigers have one of the worst AL offenses in recent memory. Starting against them 6 times has to affect a pitcher's ERA - 6 out of 32 is almost 19% of his starts. It's hard to estimate, but I think Loaiza's ERA would be about 3.50 (conservatively) if he pitched in Fenway with Pedro's start schedule.

That's a massive difference, and compared to the relatively small difference in batting efficiency (Adjusted Base Runs per PA) between Bonds and Pujols, is more than enough to put Pedro ahead of Loaiza.

As educated baseball fans, we should resist the temptation to see ERA (or RA) as an absolute reflection of performance. We ought to think about all the factors that went into creating that number; we can help ourselves by measuring as many of these factors as we can.

Loiaza vs. DET: 4-2, 1.21 ERA, 44.2 IP, 24 H, 9BB, 35K

Moyer @ home: 11-2, 3.26 ERA, 96.2 IP, 90 H, 27BB, 64K
Moyer on road: 9-5, 3,29 ERA, 112.1 IP, 102 H, 37BB, 62K

1. Somehow Loaiza managed to lose _twice_ to the Tigers.

2. Moyer did not take full advantage of the friendly confines of Safeco. Even his HR rate is almost identical.

One last thing -- HLH _really_ likes pitching against the Tigers :)

Halladay vs. DET: 3-0, 0.69 ERA, 26.0 IP, 18 H, 1BB, 15K

Win Shares says Hudson should win. SNWAR says Loaiza and Hudson should win. But as I've said many times before, I'm more interested in trying to get into the minds of voters to figure out who will win and voters aren't the most objective bunch. So, here goes:

AL Cy Young:
1) Halladay
2) Loaiza
3) Pedro

Obviously, Pedro doesn't deserve to be 3rd but some voters are going to be swayed by leading the league in ERA and Ks.

NL Cy Young:
1) Prior
2) Gagne
3) Schmidt

This is going to be very close, and deservedly so.

1. Somehow Loaiza managed to lose _twice_ to the Tigers.

Both times, he lost 1-0. That is some *hard* luck.

Robert Dudek wrote:

AL Cy Young:

1. Roy Halladay
2. Tim Hudson
3. Pedro Martinez
4. Mike Mussina
5. Esteban freakin' Loaiza

Spicol wrote:

"Obviously, Pedro doesn't deserve to be 3rd but some voters are going to be swayed by leading the league in ERA and Ks."

Ouch, that smarts!

Ouch, that smarts!

Let me edit for purposes of clarification:

Obviously, to the voter relying on the traditional criteria for Cy Young candidates, Pedro doesn't deserve to be 3rd due to his relatively low Win and IP totals but some voters are going to be swayed by leading the league in ERA and Ks.

You're swayed, Robert, but likely for entirely different reasons than those I touched on.

My bad, Jurgen. Whenever I see Robert D. and M. Moffatt alternating comments, I get dizzy, so I missed that you said exactly what I did up above. Happens to me all the time, what with trying to come up with ideas for my fiction.

"Well, maybe it was for the best. Now I finally have time to do what I've always wanted: write the great American novel. Mine is about a futuristic amusement park where dinosaurs are brought to life through advanced cloning techniques. I call it Billy and the Cloneasaurus

Joe Morgan thinks Roy should be the Cy Young winner.

"Ben (Syracuse NY): Do you think halladay should be the cy young?

"Joe Morgan: At this point, it appears that way. I think he's definately pitched well enough to win it. I'm not sure if Loiza is going to get his 20th win. Pettitte has 20 wins. If they all end up with the same amount of wins, you have to look at other things like innings pitched, ERA. But he has pitched well enough to win. Unlike the MVP, it doesn't matter that his team isn't winning. It doesn't say most valuable pitcher, just best pitcher. "

He's the ONLY guy who would actually consider Pettitte to be a Cy Young candidate.

Useless Trivia (please no complaints about end-points etc.)

The first 62 winners of the Cy Young Award had an average won-lost record of 21-8 in their award years. In the follow-up seasons, their average record was just 13-11.

Danger Roy Halladay, Danger!!

(Courtesy of MLB Desk Calendar)

That means Lidle (12-14) is in line to win the 2002 award, right? Or does it not work that way?

in the NL , isnt it clear:
1. Prior
2. Schmidt
3. Gagne - BLEW the all- star game, can only pitch to 3 batters per outing. i cant believe anyone compares him to starters who have to go through the order 3 or 4 times. Gagne would get bombed.

i cant believe anyone compares him to starters who have to go through the order 3 or 4 times. Gagne would get bombed.

Yeah, but I don't give awards on woulda/coulda/shoulda.

Gagne has done *two* things this year no pitcher has ever done... strike out fifteen batters per nine innings (I don't think anyone else has ever come really all that close, have they?) and save 55 games without blowing a single chance. And no, the All-Star Game doesn't count.

You can't wave that away and say "he's a reliever". Yes, he is... and he's not as valuable as a top starter logging 200+ innings as a result. But he's certainly been the best pitcher in the NL this year, in my view, and that's all I would care about in voting for the Cy.

Your right Gagne is not as valuable as a top starter logging 200+ innings as a result. which is why he shouldnt win. isnt the Cy Young award considered the MVP for pitchers. Ive never seen a pitcher win the MVP award, so until one does Gagne shouldnt win this year. I understand that hes had a tremendous season, and yes relief pitchers can win the Cy Young, I know this but if Prior(who should win) or Shmidt(close but no Prior) hadnt had the spectacular seasons they had or any other starting pitcher for that matter, then yes I would say that Gagne deserved it. When the Cubs beat the Dodgers twice when Prior pitched against Kevin Brown, Prior didnt give Gagne a chance to even come out. That was because Prior was just too increadible to fall behind against Brown, who at the time was in the top three for the Cy Young Award.

Oh Yeah about the 15 strikes per nine innings. Just because his stats show that he has 15.1 strikeouts per nine innings doesnt really mean all that much. Lets remember here, Gagne doesnt pitch nine straight innings. Its not hard for him to come out with all he's got because he only pitches one maybe two innings per game. If Prior only had to pitch one inning per game with who knows how many days rest, because as we all know closers dont pitch every game, then Prior would have way more than 15.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The way he pitches on a regular basis and the number of strikeouts he has per game lets us know that if he was a closer, than he would probably strike out the side in order almost every time.

isnt the Cy Young award considered the MVP for pitchers.

No, it's not. It may be by some, but generally it is considered to be given to the best (I believe the proper term may be "most outstanding") pitcher.

I've never seen a pitcher win the MVP award

New fan? Dennis Eckersley won the AL MVP in 1992, Roger Clemens in 1986, Willie Hernandez in 1984. Pitchers have won 22 MVP awards.

If Prior only had to pitch one inning per game with who knows how many days rest, because as we all know closers dont pitch every game, then Prior would have way more than 15.1 strikeouts per nine innings.

No.

Look, Mark Prior is a great talent. But there is simply no evidence to believe that you could pick just any good starter out of a rotation, throw him in the bullpen, and get 15 K per 9 innings out of him. That doesn't happen.

What Gagne has done is unprecedented for a reason. If just any top pitcher could do it, it would have been done before.

Since John Smoltz started closing, his K rate went from 8.41 (last 3 years as a starter) to 9.99 (first 3 years as a closer). I would suspect that Mark Prior would see a similar jump given the freedom of one-inning appearances, a jump of less than 20%.

Look, Mark Prior is a great talent. But there is simply no evidence to believe that you could pick just any good starter out of a rotation, throw him in the bullpen, and get 15 K per 9 innings out of him. That doesn't happen.

Indeed! Something else to consider when comparing starters to relievers -- especially in the National league -- is that closers are going to face tougher hitters, on the average than starting pitchers.

How many opposing pitchers did Prior strike out? I'd be surprised if it was less than 50. Meanwhile, a guy like Gagne probably didn't pitch to a pitcher all year.

Surprisingly, Prior only had 34 strikeouts versus the #9 slot in the order. Of course, that was in 76 AB.

Look, you can argue your case for Gagne all you want, the fact that you can consider the number nine order is interesting and everything, and you call me a new fan, did you even bother to think of how many sacrifice bunts there have been in that order. more than any other i bet. while pitchers can still strikeout on a bunt attempt, other pitchers know how to lay the bunt down. Your assumption on Prior's k rate going up (once again on your ASSUMPTION, which means nothing) is most likely completely off. I can sit here all day and write my assumption, but then i would have to go and look up all sorts of stats and make unnecesary calculations, all for probably nothing. because then u nerds would probably stay up all night trying to figure out something new to say and i dont have time for that, i have a life. BOTTOM LINE..............wheres GAGNE at now, probably getting ready to watch PRIOR and that Cubs take on the Braves.

Look, you can argue your case for Gagne all you want, the fact that you can consider the number nine order is interesting and everything, and you call me a new fan, did you even bother to think of how many sacrifice bunts there have been in that order. more than any other i bet. while pitchers can still strikeout on a bunt attempt, other pitchers know how to lay the bunt down. Your assumption on Prior's k rate going up (once again on your ASSUMPTION, which means nothing) is most likely completely off. I can sit here all day and write my assumption, but then i would have to go and look up all sorts of stats and make unnecesary calculations, all for probably nothing. because then u nerds would probably stay up all night trying to figure out something new to say and i dont have time for that, i have a life. BOTTOM LINE..............wheres GAGNE at now, probably getting ready to watch PRIOR and that Cubs take on the Braves.
Good Day

I think Moose deserves a shot, but he wont get it because he doesn't play to the press. Fact is he had less run support than Halladay, Loaiza or Pedro. He won more games than Pedro. And finished much stronger than Loaiza. And dont forget he suffered two (2) games being statistcally wiped out in the fifth innings of tied games on account of rain. Twice!!! in one season. Thats at least ten innings off the board, and eight fewer stirkeouts. Oh yeah, He just picked up his Sixth Gold Glove yesterday.

NL I have to go with Gange, because the name makes me think of gangrene, which is what batters have n their hands when they face Gange.

The Players Choice Awards will be announced sometime later today (I believe it's a televised event on ESPN2), and Halladay is apparently one of the finalists (duh) for "most outsdanding pitcher". I wouldn't be surprised if both Delgado and Halladay get honoured tonight! I don't get ESPN2 here in Jerusalem (let alone any TV stations) so can someone give me/us the highlights?

Separately, I noticed in the list of transactions that the Jays promoted Tim Huff to "national scouting cross-checker" as well as bringing a few new area scouts on board. I assume that his role will be completely separate from newly appointed (as of September) "national cross-checker" Tom Clark??!

Sure enough!

And it's of note that Vernon, not Carlos, was one of the three finalists for AL most outstanding player (which went to A-Rod).

http://cgi6.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewSellersOtherItems&userid=graded_card_sale&include=0&since=-1&sort=3&rows=50
CLICK URL:

http://cgi6.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewSellersOtherItems&userid=graded_card_sale&include=0&since=-1&sort=3&rows=50

I truly beleive that Loaiza should get the Cy, if you look at the numbers, he had a much better season than any american pitcher, you guys have to realize that this is not an award for a players carrer achievements,,, it is given in regards of what that player has done in that particular season, and Loaiza (after not even having a team in spring) came in and dominated teams left and right... I beleive that if he doesn't get it it will be just because he is Mexican born.

You don't get to make that argument if Hideki Matsui wins the AL Rookie of the Year at the same time.