Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Pennant Crunch: Sunday, September 21st, 2003

Pennant Crunch: Sunday, September 21st, 2003

Good morning all! From here on in, I'll be providing daily updates on all the pennant races.

AL West/Wildcard
Team	Wins	Losses	Remaining	Yesterday	Schedule	Elim
Oakland	92	63	7	Sea 3-9	Sea, Tex 3, @Sea 3	__
Boston	90	64	8	Cle 4-13	@Cle 1, Bal 4, @TB 3	__
Seattle	89	66	7	Oak 9-3	@Oak 1, @Ana 3, Oak 3	7

The Mariners made it two impressive performances in a row in Oakland, and with Boston getting hammered in the late innings, Seattle has renewed hope for a playoff spot. Their patient approach at the plate should help them against Rich Harden, who has great stuff but hasn't quite harnessed it yet. They are slight favourites for the sweep, which would cut the Athletics' division lead to 2 games. The wildcard lead is likely to remain at least 1.5 games, as Pedro takes the mound in Cleveland.

NL Wildcard
Team	Wins	Losses	Remaining	Yesterday	Schedule	Elim
Florida	85	69	8	Atl 6-5	@atl 2, phi 3, nym 3	__
Philadelphia	85	70	7	Cin 0-2	cin 1, @fla 3, atl 3	8
Chicago	83	72	7	Pit 2-8	@pit 1, @cin 3, pit 3	6
Los Angeles	81	72	9	SF 0-6	sf 1, @sd 4, @sf 4	6
Arizona	81	74	7	Mil 10-4	@mil 1, @col 3, stl 3	4

The NL wildcard is very nearly a two-team race, with Florida and Philadelphia at 85 wins (the Marlins are a nose in front with one loss fewer). One of those clubs is guaranteed a minimum of 87 wins, since they have an upcoming head-to-head series. The Cubs have their ace on the hill and remain possible Wildcarders if they can't catch the Astros for the Central division lead (the Astros have a tough schedule). The Dodgers seem likely to fold - they've lost 2 at home to the Giants and have to turn it around in a hurry. The D-backs are just about eliminated, only a perfect record here on out and lots of luck can save them.

NL Central
Team	Wins	Losses	Remaining	Yesterday	Schedule	Elim
Houston	84	70	8	Stl 2-3	@stl 1, sf 3, mil 4	__
Chicago	83	72	7	Pit 2-8	@pit 1, @cin 3, pit 3	7
St. Louis	80	76	6	Hou 3-2	hou 1, @mil 2, @arz 3	3

Chicago's lacklustre play in Pittsburgh must be a concern. They edged the Pirates 10-9 in the first game of a double bill on Friday before badly losing the next two. If they continue their uneven play in Cincy, the Astros might limp to another Central division title. Saint Louis has a faint hope if they win all their remaining games, but all the Astros need to do to eliminate the Cardinals is win 3 of their remaining 7.

AL Central
Team	Wins	Losses	Remaining	Yesterday	Schedule	Elim
Minnesota	86	69	7	Det 7-3	det 1, cle 2, @det 4	__
Chicago	81	73	8	KC 1-7	kc 1, nyy 3, @kc 4	4

The AL Central is a done deal. Minnesota has the easiest remaining schedule and needs to win only 4 out of 7 to take the crown no matter what the White Sox do. The South Siders are up against it: they play the Yankees and Royals. The Twins should take care to set up their rotation for the ALDS (hint - use the lefties).

AL Homefield
Team	Wins	Losses	Remaining	Yesterday	Schedule	Elim
NY Yankees	96	58	8	TB 7-1	@tb 1, @cws 3, bal 4	__
Oakland	92	63	7	Sea 3-9	sea 1, tex 3, @sea 3	4

NL Homefield
Team	Wins	Losses	Remaining	Yesterday	Schedule	Elim
Atlanta	96	59	7	Fla 5-6	fla 2, mon 2, @phi 3	9
San Francisco	95	58	9	LA 6-0	@la 1, @hou 3, la 4	9

It looks like nothing can stop the Yankees from clinching homefield advantage for the playoffs. Oakland is looking in the rearview mirror and the softish schedule for the Yanks should mean another 100+ win season. The Giants and Braves are now in a virtual tie for NL homefield. The Giants are playing better right now, so I'll go with San Fran to nip the Braves for the honour.

**Today's Probable pitchers**

SEA	Gil Meche	at	OAK	*Ted Lilly*	4:05
BOS	Pedro Martinez	at	CLE	Cliff Lee	1:05
HOU	Jeriome Robertson	at	STL	Sterling Hitchcock	2:10
FLA	Carl Pavano	at	ATL	Greg Maddux	1:05
CIN	Aaron Harang	at	PHI	Vicente Padilla	1:35
SF	Kevin Correia	at	LA	Kazuhisa Ishii	4:10
CHC	Mark Prior	at	PIT	Oliver Perez	1:35
KC	Darrell May	at	CWS	Jon Garland	2:05
DET	Gary Knotts	at	MIN	Brad Radke	2:05
NYY	Roger Clemens	at	TB	Jeremi Gonzalez	1:15
ARZ	Curt Schilling	at	MIL	Wes Obermueller	2:05

Posted by robertdudek on Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 01:51 AM EDT.

Pennant Crunch: Sunday, September 21st, 2003 | 22 comments | Create New Account

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robertdudek - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 02:05 AM EDT (#91457) #

Florida's extra-inning victory over Atlanta mathematically eliminated the Expos. Montreal has 76 losses, while the NL Wildcard can end up with no fewer than 87 wins.

Craig B - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#91458) #

And Boston's win on Friday, for those who had missed it, had mathematically eliminated the Jays...

Coach - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#91459) #

This is great, Robert.

Gardenhire doesn't know who he's setting up the rotation for -- if Boston hangs on, Minnesota will play the Yankees. If the Red Sox stumble, the Twins will visit the West winner. It hardly matters; I'd want Santana to get two starts against anyone, and Milton looked strong the other night. Radke's been terrific lately, too. Not that I'd advocate betting on baseball, but for the second straight year, I have a feeling they are a "live" longshot. Momentum would be a wonderful thing for chemistry, if either existed.

Is it just my AL bias, or do others get the impression that nobody really wants to win (or deserves) the NL Central and the WC? I'm hoping for the Astros and Phillies, because I'm not a big Cubs fan and I hate Jeffrey Loria. Regardless of who their first-round opponents are, I'm sure most people are expecting a Braves-Giants collision in the NLCS.

Whoever survives the more competitive AL tournament will be my choice to win the Series; if it goes seven games, they should award a partial share to Hank Blalock.

Pepper Moffatt - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#91460) #

http://economics.about.com
Whoever survives the more competitive AL tournament will be my choice to win the Series; if it goes seven games, they should award a partial share to Hank Blalock.

According to an article on Primer, the NL has a 60% chance of winning the series, even without home field advantage. I'm still scratching my head about that one.

Mike

_Grimlock - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#91461) #

Is it just my AL bias, or do others get the impression that nobody really wants to win (or deserves) the NL Central and the WC?

Yeah, but that's because all those teams are really a tier below the other contenders. Grimlock is old school, there are too many playoff spots and not enough really good teams. And so, from time to time, you get an NHL-style playoff race where no one seems to want to win it.

Gerry - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#91462) #

I think the Cubs are one of the more interesting teams left. Their schedule should have given them an advantage, but they lost 2 out of 3 to Pittsburgh. They play Pittsburgh and Cincinatti the rest of the way so they should/could win the division or the wild card.

The other interesting aspect is the manager, who is highly regarded, managing a young rotation and old position players. Dusty has been riding his young pitchers pretty hard so there could be some arm troubles show up next year. He also has a surplus of speedy guys, discussed earlier here.

robertdudek - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#91463) #

The Cubs could be dangerous in the playoffs: with a rotation of Prior, Wood, Clement and Zambrano they'd have the starting pitching edge over just about everyone in the NL.

Their chances for the wildcard are not good. It's likely that one of Florida/Philly will end up with 89 or 90 wins: the Cubs need to win all their remaining games to reach 90 wins. They have a much much better shot at the NL Central crown.

At this point I'd bet that an Atlanta-Chicago pairing in the NLDS is the most likely scenario.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#91464) #

Robert, I'm sure it was a brain cramp, but don't you mean a Cub rotation of Prior, Wood and Zambrano (with Clement if necessary only).

Note to those who claim baseball is 75% pitching. If it were that high, the Cubs would not be in second place in a weak division.

robertdudek - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#91465) #

I guess I was just assuming a 4-man rotation for the first round, not giving too much thought to the order.

robertdudek - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#91466) #

Boston is up 2-0 in the bottom of the 7th, but Cleveland has the bases loaded with 2 outs against Pedro. Atlanta is up big against Florida.

robertdudek - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#91467) #

Pedro gets out of it, but he's close to 120 pitches so it's likely the bullpen will have to get 6 outs to preserve the win. Arizona has the basesloaded with 1 out, but they are down 5-2.

robertdudek - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#91468) #

Minnesota is up 4-1; the White Sox trail 7-2. Turn out the lights, the party's over.

robertdudek - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#91469) #

A 2-run double by Edgar Renteria ties the game: Houston 4 St Louis 4 in the bottom of the 5th. In the 8th, the Pirates are fighting back: a two out infield single by Jason Kendall loads the bases with two out. The Pirates are down 4-1 and Mark Prior, after over 130 pitches, has been knocked out of the game. Old reliable, Mark Remlinger, is in.

robertdudek - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#91470) #

Ted Lilly is starting in place of Rich Harden today for Oakland.

Pistol - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#91471) #

Ted Lilly is starting in place of Rich Harden today for Oakland.

I saw earlier that Lilly was originally scheduled to start on Tuesday. Did 2 consectutive losses bump him up or is something wrong with Harden?

robertdudek - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#91472) #

Gil Meche couldn't get anyone out in the 2nd. Mateo had to come in and before it was over Oakland had scored 5 runs. A great play by Ichiro and Boone on a double cut down Mark Ellis at the plate or else the damage might have been much worse.

robertdudek - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#91473) #

Mark Ellis hit a grand slam and the Athletics have added 2 runs and lead 12-0. Oakland needs only 1 win in Seattle next weekend to wrap up the division, maybe not even that much.

robertdudek - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#91474) #

Bob T noted on Primer that Harden has had back spasms.

Thomas - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#91475) #

Yeah, I read that Harden had spams too, and they are tentatively pushing him back to Tuesday's game vs. Texas. Lilly pitched a great game on short notice though.

_Ben NS - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#91476) #

Any '04 projections for Harden?

Coach - Sunday, September 21 2003 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#91477) #

Oakland needs only 1 win in Seattle next weekend to wrap up the division, maybe not even that much.

Yeah, that was huge for the A's. Anything less than a sweep had to be a disappointment for Seattle, especially combined with Pedro's gem. The Mariners will be feeling the pressure now, knowing they have to run the table.

Dusty has been riding his young pitchers pretty hard

Say, that Prior kid is pretty good. He'll be even better when he doesn't have to strike out 14 or throw 131 pitches. If he lasts.

I know the Dodgers aren't really in the race, but this seems like a good place to mention "Cy" Gagne's 53rd save.

Gitz - Monday, September 22 2003 @ 01:38 AM EDT (#91478) #

Any '04 projections for Harden?

Projecting pitchers's statistics is, at best, a fool's errand. So it sounds like the perfect job for me!

Assuming Harden stays healthy, here's my super-duper-non-scientific gut feeling: 195 innings, 174 hits allowed, 184 strikeouts, 15 home runs allowed, 95 walks, 4.01 E.R.A. My hunch is that he'll be similar to what Barry Zito did: he'll get cuffed a bit in the first half, find the strike zone in the second half, and take off, priming him for a great 2005. That's a fairly standard growth chart for young pitchers -- Mark Prior, Roy Oswalt, and a few others notwithstanding.

I am a bit concerned about Harden's poor command, as I and a number of others commented on before Harden got the call. I maintain that he was brought to the majors too soon, though Robert shrewdly points out that this won't hurt his long-term prospects. On the other hand, it may hurt the A's short-term if they a) rely on Harden to pitch in the post-season, where the pressure is tighter or b) rely on Lilly to pitch in the post-season, where the pressure is tighter. Mulder's loss cannot be overstated.

Incidentally, here's what I said about Harden in my A's column, right after he got called up. (Please forgive me for quoting myself; I really try to avoid it, even on the occasions I'm right.)

Assuming Harden gets around 14 starts, here's what I expect: 84 innings (the A's will baby him and he will most likely rack up high pitch counts), 83 hits, 44 walks, 70 strikeouts, an E.R.A. over 4.00. Wins, as Tim Hudson will attest, are capricious; I won't project them. So ... I would not use the high waiver pick in AL-only leagues; Harden's more likely to damage your E.R.A. and ratio numbers than give you six points in those categories. In mixed leagues I might risk it, because I don't see anyone coming up and because Harden has considerable trade value due to his hype. There is, of course, a chance he'll have the same impact as Prior -- or Dontrelle Willis -- but don't count it, because, as I've said ad nauseum, rookie pitchers will break your heart far more often than not.

So far, Harden's done this: 66 innnings, 65 hits, 35 walks, 62 strikeouts. There's a phrase that belongs here, and I believe it's something about blind chimpmunks finding broken pretzels.

Pennant Crunch: Sunday, September 21st, 2003 | 22 comments | Create New Account

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