...but I really think this team will blossom to its full potential in '07 and '08.

But where will Roy Halladay be then?

I mentioned elsewhere that Halladay's impressively low PAP and Stress Factor ratings these past two years, despite his massive innings, might merit him consideration for a four or five year contract. I'd consider it if it meant signing him for a little less per year ($40 M over 5 years?) than what he'd command for a three year contract ($30 over 3 years?).

Its been quite a roller-coaster ride for those who follow the Jays. A red hot May/June followed by a desultory summer,then here in Autumn(winter as 10 cm. of snow is on the ground in Calgary?)a promising finish.

An interesting trend appears to be evolving with this team as well post-all star game. Pre-all star the jugernaught Jays were second in the A.L. in runs scored,near the bottom 13th. in runs allowed. Post mid-season classic the team has morphed into 5th in runs allowed versus only 10th in runs scored. The shot-gun offence has been replaced by a relatively good defensive squad. Now granted sample size pre/post(95 games vs. 56)and depth of schedule are factors but,I think the character of this team has subtly shifted.

We've seen a substantial improvement in team defence accross the board, with the exeption of Hinske at third. Cash behind the plate,at second, O-Dog settling down after the yips early in the season,Bordick at short,Kielty and Johnson in the outfield. Not coincidentally the pitching appears to be sorting itself out as well. Escobar,Kershner,Miller,Lopez and even Towers have all have found a niche witin the team structure.

I find it interesting that a team can change its style too such a degree during the course of a season.

Wildrose, I think that the schedule does have something to do with the shift you are speaking about. There have been many fewer games against Boston and New York in the second half and all the games against the West and lesser Central teams have come in the second half.

However, the shift in offense has largely resulted from three factors which should be some cause for concern. 1. Creating a black hole at catcher with Cash catching for 25 games and the return to earth of Frankencather. 2. Creating a blackhole at one corner outfield position with the switch of Stewart for Keitly (Keilty's sub 700 OPS in the 60 odd games since the deal wouldn't cut it at short let alone a corner outfield spot) and the morphing into a blackole of Johnson (659 OPS since the All-Star break wouldn't cut it at catcher, unless your name is Cash). 3. The return to earth of Delgado (890 OPS since the break.

The question is which of these factors will continue next year. If you want defense at catcher, then Cash will have to stay. Myers is not signed for next year. This should be a top priority for next year. In my opinion, Johnson is basically playing at the level he will play at (i.e. 4th outfielder/valuable agains lefties) and not much more should be expected from him. Keilty is the X factor. I do not really have a good handle on what you will get from him next year. Carlos had to return to earth to some extent. His current production is more in line with historical results.

Bottom line, the Jays need more offense out of corner outfielders to improve or maintain the offense for '04.

I think the offense should remain roughly constant from this year to next. I think it's likely that Kielty, Phelps, Hinske, Cash and perhaps Hudson can do better than they've done this year, and that should balance out likely declines from Myers and, plausibly, Delgado. In any case, I don't see Ricciardi ever presiding over a team with a bad offense; it'll never be worse than average.

Matthew, over the course of the year, you may be right, but looking over the period in which they have had the 10th best offense, I do not think it is reasonable to expect the offset you mention. I agree that you cannot help but get more from Cash, but purely subjectively he looks overmatched. As I said above, Keilty - who knows.His career record batting lefthanded worries me. As for Phelps, Hinske and Hudson. Only Hudson is a candidate to give you much more:

Since the All Star break:

Phelps 990 OPS
Hinke 840 OPS
Hudson 700 OPS

The only thing you can say is that Phelps may give you more in sum if he played every day.

I agree with your view that if there is one thing JP has shown, that is an ability to put an offense together. I remain confident he will do so. I just think they may have to find a corner outfielder(s) to do so because the offset you mention will not provide all the answers.

The question is which of these factors will continue next year. If you want defense at catcher, then Cash will have to stay. Myers is not signed for next year. This should be a top priority for next year. In my opinion, Johnson is basically playing at the level he will play at (i.e. 4th outfielder/valuable agains lefties) and not much more should be expected from him. Keilty is the X factor. I do not really have a good handle on what you will get from him next year. Carlos had to return to earth to some extent. His current production is more in line with historical results.


X-Factor indeed.

Kielty needs to completely overhaul his lefthanded batting stance, or just abandon it and learn to hit righthanded against righties. He looks completely lost up there right now, and there has been little improvement since the trade. Earth to Mike Barnett, Kielty calling!

Dunno about resigning Myers or Wilson. Lightning rarely strikes twice -- Myers should use his career season to get a big contract out of someone else. There's probably some defensively sound minor league free agents who can caddy for Cash next year while Quiroz is mashing up AAA.

Because he hits from the left side, Myers would make a good platoon partner for Cash, but I just can't see him hitting this well again, and he could end up being an expensive mistake if resigned.

http://economics.about.com
(Keilty's sub 700 OPS in the 60 odd games since the deal wouldn't cut it at short let alone a corner outfield spot)

OPS is a really bad measure of the worth of a guy like Kielty because it drastically undervalues walks. At the same time, Kielty hasn't performed this year.

Here are the EQAs (Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching), and the RARP (Runs Above Replacement Position) for all Jays with over 80 plate appearances:

PLAYER PA EQA RARP
Delgado, Carlos 656 0.332 60.4
Wells, Vernon 682 0.299 47.1
Myers, Greg 356 0.298 25.2
Phelps, Josh 419 0.284 15.8
Catalanotto, Frank 520 0.278 16.6
Stewart, Shannon 332 0.272 7.8
Hinske, Eric 472 0.269 18.7
Johnson, Reed 403 0.258 4.5
Wilson, Tom 275 0.252 6.4
Bordick, Mike 343 0.251 7.7
Hudson, Orlando 487 0.251 9.5
Kielty, Bobby 183 0.244 -0.5
Berg, Dave 153 0.243 0.9
Woodward, Chris 371 0.239 5
Cash, Kevin 82 0 -8.1

I wouldn't be surprised if Delgado and Wells performed a little under those levels next year. There's no way Myers has a .298 EqA next year. I could see Phelps, Hinske, Hudson, and Kielty picking up some of the slack. Cash has an EqA of 0.000, which is pretty much unheard of.

Johnson has played slightly over replacement level, which is probably about at his talent level. Kielty has played slightly under, and Cash has been 8 runs worse than a replacement level catcher, which is shocking considering he's only had 82PAs.

I'm pretty sure other metrics would show roughly similar results. I just use these stats because they make sense to me, and more importantly they're available in an instant. These numbers, like any other, should be taken with a huge pile of salt.

Cheers,

Mike

Because he hits from the left side, Myers would make a good platoon partner for Cash, but I just can't see him hitting this well again, and he could end up being an expensive mistake if resigned.

I think the interest in Myers at the deadline is a pretty sure sign that he won't be signing an expensive contract.

I expect Myers to return next year at a similar cost with Cash catching 60% of the time. I suspect that Wilson won't be on the team next year.

If the Jays cannot muster a good outfield out of Wells, Johnson, Kielty, Gabe Gross, Alexis Rios and Jayson Werth by middle of next season, I would be very surprised.

Kevin Cash's minor league record is consistent with a .240/.300/.400 offensive line, and seeing as he is turning 26 in December, there is no reason to expect more. If the Jays play Cash most of the time next year, it is pretty much assured that they will score and give up fewer runs.

The one caveat is this. Guillermo Quiroz will be catching Dustin McGowan, David Bush and Jason Arnold to start the season in Syracuse, after doing the same at New Haven at various points this past one. It is certainly possible that Quiroz and two or all three of the pitchers play at the beginning of next year in Syracuse at the same level as they performed in New Haven. We might then see the lot in Toronto in July, in which case the team offence might be as good next year.

My questions for next year:

1. will Eric Hinske's defence improve as his hand completely heals?
2. who will play short- Bordick is probably not coming back, but is playing short most of the time these days?, and ho hum
3. who will fill out the pitching staff after Halladay, Trever Miller, Kershner and Lopez?

1. Let's hope so. It's plausible that it will.
2. I bet it'll be Woodward. To start the year, anyway.
3. I assume Politte will be there too. They probably sort of have to give Towers a shot to start the year, anyway, after how he's performed. I think they'll give Corey Thurman every chance to win a spot in the rotation in spring training, and I expect Chulk to be in the bullpen.

Matthew, I agree that Towers, Politte, Thurman and Chulk will probably be on the staff, along with Hendrickson.

The curious thing is that if you're going to start next season with Woodward, why wouldn't you start him most of the time in September? I agree that Woodward is the obvious choice, and personally, I'm skeptical that there will be any realistic alternatives before 2005.

I hope that next year's schedule is kinder to the Jays than this year's. Why, exactly, do the Jays never play Baltimore early in the year? And why were they forced to make three West Coast swings this year (including two separate trips in the space of a week), when they used to only need two swings for a balanced schedule?

And why, oh why, are the Jays always on the road on Victoria Day and Canada Day (and at home on Memorial Day)? The owners are leaving several tens of thousands of dollars on the table when they do that - why do they do that?

http://economics.about.com
Having only a few pitching roster spots sewn up at this time of the year isn't unusual for the Jays. Consider who was on the staff this time last year.

Consider the pitchers on the opening day roster this year:

Halladay (holdover)
Hendrickson (came up late in 2002)
Lidle (new)
Sturtze (new)

Creek (new)
Escobar (holdover)
Linton (new)
Lopez (new)
Miller (new)
Politte (acquired mid 2002)
Tam (new)
Walker (holdover)

There's 3 guys on that list that were there for most of 2002, and 2 more who showed up near the middle-end of the season. Out of the 12 guys on that list, 7 of them were new. So the Jays don't seem to be in any different shape this year.

(Note: Justin Miller would have been on the roster if he had not been injured).

Halladay, T. Miller, Politte, and Lopez seem like locks. Kershner almost certainly will make the team. So that's 5 there. It wouldn't surprise me if Chulk and Hendrickson made the team. Thurman will probably come up near the start of the season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Arnold up by August. Pete Walker could be back in the number 5 slot. If Justin Miller is healthy, he should be back.

So it would seem that you have:

1. Halladay
2. ?????
3. ?????
4. ?????
5. Walker/Miller

1. Lopez
2. Politte
3. T. Miller
4. Keshner
5. Chulk
6. ?????
7. ?????

Leftover: Hendrickson, Thurman, Towers, Reichert, Arnold, one of Walker/Miller.

So really the Jays only have 5 or 6 slots to fill. Unfortunately 3 or 4 of them are in the rotation. To be honest I'd rather see the Jays lock up Phelps and O-Dog to make a run at the WS in '05 or '06 than spend a lot on pitching. If they were in the Central, I'd say go for it, but I don't seem them beating the Red Sox and Yankees.

Cheers,

Mike

My questions for next year:

1. will Eric Hinske's defence improve as his hand completely heals?

I never got the impression that Hinske's hand affected his defense. I thought it was only his swing that bothered him, no?

Could Hinske's defense get any worse? I expect to see a turnaround next year, Hinske should be close to his late '02 form. I hope that Tosca doesn't feel the need to move him to first because of Phelps, but then big Josh isn't a defensive wizard either. Any solutions?

Ben

What's the latest on Bob File... can we expect to see him back any time soon?

File was doing rehad assignments not too long ago, I think.

What'll happen if all east coast games get canned because of Isabel? Will they extend the season to play them all? Could they move the series to Toronto, put it indoors and call Baltimore the home team? Something tells me ownership wouldn't go for that because of lost revenue on the Oriels' side and a lack of potential ticket sales in a city where baseball draws poorly to games that have been scheduled for months.

File was doing rehad assignments not too long ago, I think.

What'll happen if all east coast games get canned because of Isabel? Will they extend the season to play them all? Could they move the series to Toronto, put it indoors and call Baltimore the home team? Something tells me ownership wouldn't go for that because of lost revenue on the Oriels' side and a lack of potential ticket sales in a city where baseball draws poorly to games that have been scheduled for months.

Justin Miller update?

Apologies for the double post

Apologies for the double post

Cash has been a non-entity at the plate this season. But I think we've uncovered a wee problem with the metric when his EqA comes out at .000.

In an average era, in an average ballpark and against average pitching...Kevin Cash would never get a hit???

" What's the latest on Bob File... can we expect to see him back any time soon? "

I understand he went through his rehab fine and was not called up for monetary reasons. I think Sturtze and Lidle should have been released and File and others brought up.

The Jays told him to be ready for Spring Training.

But I think we've uncovered a wee problem with the metric when his EqA comes out at .000.

In an average era, in an average ballpark and against average pitching...Kevin Cash would never get a hit???

Actually, that's not what the EqA metric means... it's just a representation on a logarithmic scale of EqR per Out. Cash checks in below the baseline for the measue.

I think Sturtze and Lidle should have been released and File and others brought up.

I think one of the reasons they haven't released Sturtze and Lidle is that it wouldn't send the best message to free agents considering Toronto in the future. This organization is deliberately building a reputation as a good place to play. When guys like Josh Towers and Trever Miller have success, and all the minor league free agents are treated with respect, word gets around.

In the case of File, my impression is that they were very pleased he got as far back as he did this year, and didn't want to push him too hard until the spring.

I don't think Justin Miller will be ready for spring training, dp. He could be back in the mix by 2005.

Thanks Coach , that makes a lot of sense in building a good reputation with Players.

My hat goes off to you Coach , all of ZLC and to all of the great Posters. This is the Best Blue Jay Fan site with Great quality.

I think a reasonable goal for next year will be 88-92 wins. I doubt that that will be enough for a wildcard, but it might set up some interesting September games next year (I'd prefer it if the scheduler gave us an easy August and more difficult September).

I understand he went through his rehab fine and was not called up for monetary reasons. I think Sturtze and Lidle should have been released and File and others brought up.

Well if Sturtze and Lidle were released it wouldn't have saved any money, they have guaranteed contracts.

http://economics.about.com
RE: Jays projection.

The one reason I wouldn't be too optimistic about the '04 Jays is that the Orioles should be a heck of a lot better next year than they were this year. That'll take a few wins away from the Jays, all else being equal. Tampa will probably continue to improve. I could see the Red Sox and Yankees declining a little.

If the Jays were in the Central, I'd say they'd win 95 games next year. But unfortunately they're not.

Mike

It's tough to make 2004 projections right now. Look how many bodies JP brought in last winter: Myers, Bordick, Sturtze, Cat, Lidle, Lopez, Miller, Tam, and Creek. A few really good or really bad moves this off-season will have a big impact. I'm pretty confident the Opening Day roster will have a number of new faces.

What colleges did Vernon Wells, Roy Halladay and Carlos Delgado attend?

What colleges did Vernon Wells, Roy Halladay and Carlos Delgado attend?

I don't believe they did, Johnny.

I know that Barry Bonds went to Arizona State, Roger Clemens to Texas, Randy Johnson to USC and Albert Pujols to Maple Woods Community College. I know that Todd Helton went to Tennessee, and Frank Thomas went to Auburn, where both were two-sport stars. Jim Thome, on the other hand, chose the small-school experience of Illinois Central College in Peoria (yeah, he'll play in Peoria all right). Jorge Posada went to Calhoun Community College; his batterymate Mike Mussina was a perennial All-America at Stanford. Kevin Brown's a Rambling Wreck from Georgia Tech... Mark Mulder is a Mchigan State Spartan, Matt Morris a Seton Hall Pirate, Woody Williams a Houston Cougar. Marcus Giles went to Grossmont JC, and Curt Schilling spent some time at the rather exotically-named Yavapai Junior College in dusty Prescott, Arizona.

Some other junior college pitchers? Mark Buehrle and Andy Pettitte come to mind. Oh yeah, how about Cy Young winner Eric Gagne? Billy Wagner? Brendan Donnelly? Roy Oswalt? Aaaagh! I'm drowning!

Oh, you want *four-year* college pitchers. Paul Quantrill, Wisconsin. Keith Foulke, Lewis & Clark State. Brandon Webb, Kentucky. Tim Hudson, Auburn. Barry Zito, Southern Cal. Kip Wells, Baylor. Jamie Moyer, St. Joe's. Mark Redman, Oklahoma.

Naw, let's get back to the hitters.

SS Nomar Garciaparra, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
LF Lance Berkman, Rice Owls
DH Aubrey Huff, Miami Hurricanes
1B Jeff Bagwell, Hartford Hawks
RF Luis Gonzalez, South Alabama Jaguars
3B Mike Lowell, Florida International Golden Panthers
2B Jeff Kent, Cal-Berkeley Bears
CF Kenny Lofton, Arizona Wildcats
C Paul LoDuca, Arizona State Sun Devils

Bret Boone went to USC. Jody Gerut went to Stanford. Nevertheless, they'd probably like each other if they got to know each other.

Marlon Byrd went to Georgia Perimeter JC. Edgar Martinez went to American University in San Juan. Placido Polanco, Miami-Dade Commmunity College. Moises Alou to Canada College. Jason Isringhausen to Lewis-Clark Community College. Shea Hillenbrand to Mesa Community College. Joel Pineiro to Edison Community College. Reggie Sanders to Spartanburg Methodist Community College. Tim Redding to Monroe Community College. Erubiel Durazo to Pima Community College. Yes, I can confirm, the state of Arizona has a very well-developed community college system.

Where are my manners? I forgot Kevin Millar of Lamar, Tino Martinez of Tampa U, Rich Aurilia of St. John's, and John Olerud of (of course)Washington State. Adam Kennedy (Northridge State). Tim Salmon (Grand Canyon). Chad Bradford (Southern Miss). Brad Wilkerson (Florida). Mark Kotsay (Fullerton State). Troy Percival (UC-Riverside). Bernie Williams (U-Puerto Rico). Aaron Boone (USC). Mark Teixeira (Georgia Tech). Eric Hinske (Arkansas). David Eckstein (Florida). Wade Miller (Alvernia). Zach Day (Cincinnati). Russ Ortiz (Oklahoma).

There are many, many more fine players who were drafted out of college.

The old Blue Jays regime preferred to pick high school players and watch them develop, and invest in Latin America. Latin America is more expensive now (though still very viable) so it's less of an issue, and this regime prefers to pick college players, who are closer to the majors and require less development time. It's a sensible choice; not the only choice, but a sensible one. We're used to seeing guys in Toronto like Shawn Green and Roy Halladay and Tony Fernandez and Carlos Delgado and Alex Rodriguez, guys who were drafted or signed early and then developed in the low minors. Some of that development time now will be spent in college instead. It's a different style, it will take some getting used to, and it's not necessarily a bad thing.

And I liked Baseball Prospectus's comment that they were "going to go out on a limb and flatly state that [Bob] File is the best big leaguer ever to emerge from the Philadelphia College of Textiles."

Or at least File was the best third baseman ever produced by Philadelphia College of Textiles.

File pitched 13.2 innings this year between Dunedin and Syracuse, with ok, but not sensational results.

Hey, he's better than Alan Wawrzyniak. But "Alan Wawrzyniak" is a much, much cooler name.

The one reason I wouldn't be too optimistic about the '04 Jays is that the Orioles should be a heck of a lot better next year than they were this year.

Mike, I'm not sure if this comment stems from a belief that their young players are improving or that they will spend their way to deeper talent, especially given the widely held belief that Angelos is poised and ready with the cheque book (or check book, in his case).

If it's the latter, (a) it's not clear that Baltimore is somewhere any self-respecting FA wants to end up and (b) I'm not convinced in the two-headed beasts' ability to spend money wisely.

Now, Guerrero is a no-brainer. If he winds up in Baltimore, that obviously hurts the Jays.

And if the market is depressed again, Baltimore may be more appealing to FA's than it has been in the past.

"But "Alan Wawrzyniak" is a much, much cooler name."

The approximately correct Polish pronunciation for this surname (I'm not necessary saying the guy himself would pronounce it like this) in English phonetics would be:

vav - ZHY - nyak

The "ZHY" consists of a heavily aspirated Z followed by a vowel as in the English word "bill". The "ny" is a softened n, similar to that in the Spanish "Peņa".

Wasn't there a Homer and Jethro song "We are the Poles from Rancho Cucamonga?"

(Too many hours listening to Dr. Demento in my youth.)

I hope that next year's schedule is kinder to the Jays than this year's. Why, exactly, do the Jays never play Baltimore early in the year?

It was mentioned on the broadcast last night that the Jays are going to start the 2004 season against Detroit (the subject was Halladay's domination of the Tigers, and how it'll get an early chance to continue next year).

Has anyone seen the 2004 schedule anywhere?