Here's the win shares for the Jays this year (if someone can format this nicely feel free to edit this).

Player Team Pos Hit Field Pitch Sum WS
-------- ----- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ---
C Delgado TOR 1B 26.34 1.51 0.00 27.85 28
V Wells TOR OF 18.73 3.80 0.00 22.53 23
R Halladay TOR P 0.00 0.00 19.03 19.03 19
O Hudson TOR 2B 7.02 7.65 0.00 14.67 15
F Catalanotto TOR OF 13.26 1.28 0.00 14.54 15
E Hinske TOR 3B 8.72 1.80 0.00 10.52 10

K Escobar TOR P 0.14 0.00 9.41 9.56 10
J Phelps TOR DH 9.30 0.05 0.00 9.35 9

I believe that Delgado is the Jays' best player. However, if you did a 'take this player off of the team & where would they be' you could argue that Halladay has been the Jays most valuable player given the team's lack of pitching overall. Halladay also contributes by giving the bullpen a rest, and being able to plan bullpen usage around his start since he always seems to go at least 7 innings.

Having said that, I'll still go with Delgado as team MVP.

Carlos' overall edge in hitting shows up almost entirely in the RISP category. Despite being pitched around, he's still slugged well over .600. Vernon has hit almost equally well in all situations, which may suggest that he hasn't been pitched differently based on MoB situation (and that would stand to reason because Delgado has batted behind him all year).

Sorry for the long quote but Robert, are you contending that there is such a thing as protection? I can't recall what your stance is on that issue.

Sorry...this seems like a set-up. It's not. So much has been written denouncing the idea of protection, I'd actually like to hear an intelligent argument for it, just so I've heard both sides.

I believe that the batting order influences how the pitchers pitch to batters. If a lesser hitter were batting behind Wells, Vernon would get fewer good pitches. He would likely draw more walks and have fewer hits. If Delgado and Wells were flip-flopped, Delgado's walks would probably go down, but he would get more hits.

RISP is the sitaution where a pitcher's willingness to pitch to a hitter is tested, I think. Pitchers will not semi-intentionallly walk Vernon because of the quality of hitter behind him. They will and do pitch around Delgado a lot in those sitautions.

Simple walk rate [W/(AB+W)] based on the above data:

Carlos
RISP ..... 48/190 = .253
R1(only).. 19/134 = .142
Empty .... 38/309 = .123

Vernon
RISP ..... 16/191 = .084
R1(only)... 5/135 = .037
Empty .....17/339 = .050

That data isn't conclusive because of the low walk total Vernon gets, but it suggests that Carlos experiences a greater increase in walks (in percentage terms) than Vernon does with men on base in general and RISP in particular.

If Delgado and Wells were flip-flopped, Delgado's walks would probably go down, but he would get more hits.

I’m not sure about this. I can see how Wells benefits from hitting in front of Delgado, but I don’t think the reverse is true to the same degree. I think how a team pitches to the best hitter on the other team is the same almost regardless of who is hitting in front of or behind him. (Although in the case of Delgado and Wells there may be some instances because of the handedness of the pitcher).

For instance, when Jeff Kent hit behind Bonds did Bonds get any fewer walks then when a lesser hitter like Benito Santiago hit behind him? I have nothing to back this up one way or the other, but I suspect that it’s pretty close to the same.

It depends on the difference in quality between the best hitter on the team and the one following in the order.

Kent is a fine hitter, but Bonds was/is so much better than anyone else that you'd have to put a Thome/Helton/Ramirez type behind him to significantly affect pitching patterns to him.

I would choose Carlos Deglado as the MVP of the team. I think Vernon Wells has a good case, and you can't go wrong with either guy (how much worse would this pitching staff look with Reed Johnson and Bobby Kielty in center field!?) but Delgado was the primary one rocking the house when the team was in contention. I think Delgado was the MVP of the entire league before the All-Star Break; I think he's done enough since then to at least remain MVP of the team.

Bonds was/is so much better than anyone else that you'd have to put a Thome/Helton/Ramirez type behind him to significantly affect pitching patterns to him.

DMB managers usually disagree... Bonds gets pitched around an insane amount, no matter if both Todd Helton and Miguel Tejada hit behind him... :)

http://somecalzoneforderek.blogspot.com/
Wells probably has a greater defensive value compared to a scrub-centerfielder than Delgado has compared to a replacement 1B. However, it's worth noting that fielding stats do not yet indicate that Vernon Wells is a Gold-Glove calibre centerfielder. Thus, we should resist the temptation to exagerrate Wells' defensive value.

If you look at where Wells stands in Zone Rating he probably isn't a gold glover in the AL with Hunter, Cameron, and Beltran all ahead of him but in the NL he would rank first in Zone Rating well ahead of Jim Edmonds the NL leader in that department. (Andruw Jones is next to last in that department by the way.)

So I think in the NL he would have a very good chance of picking up a Gold Glove award meaning I think we could safely call him a "gold glove caliber" CF.

Wells could win a Gold Glove this year and there would be, I think, no protest. Clearly, two of Hunter, Beltran, and Cameron will win this year (plus the undeserving Ichiro) but if you gave the two non-Ichiro Gold Gloves to Cameron and Wells or to Hunter and Beltran, I don't think too many would complain.

Craig, is Ichiro undeserving simply by virtue of playing right field? Or is that a subjective assessment from your watching him play?

I imagine that it would be difficult for him to accumulate (a) great throwing stats, since nobody runs on him anymore, and (b) great range stats, since the great Mike Cameron probably calls him off an awful lot.

From what I've seen, Ichiro's defence hasn't slipped.

I should add that I think it's entirely defensible to limit outfield Gold Gloves to centrefielders.

I've had the pleasure of seeing Beltran in person once this season (Cameron was hurt when I took in the Mariners hosting the BoSox), and my unabashedly subjective spectator's opinion that he is a superior defensive player seems to be borne out by defensive win shares.

I would definitely go with Delgado for MVP. When you look at the difference in offensive contribution, I do not think any defensive difference could make up the gap. Purely subjectively, I do not think that its a coincidence the Jays performance has slumped in tandem with Delgado.

Having said that, I think that Robert's analysis on Delgado only further's a comment that I made on another thread, that from a roster construction/budget standpoint I think Delgado has to go (either now (although the no trade may make this a non-starter) or after his contract expires) and be replaced with pitching. I recognize that the offensive impact would be substantial but the reduction in runs would, I think, offset the offensive loss. The following simple math illustrates my point.

Delgado has produced something like 60 runs above replacement. That is not a high standard and someone like a Phelps or even a F-Cat could produce something above replacement. For argument sake, say the difference between Delgado and the internal replacement is something like 40-45 runs (I think I'm being a little generous to Delgado here) of net offensive loss. Maybe due to the impact on batters around Delgado in the line-up there is a broader effect. I do not know of a metric that measures this. I'm prepared to concede there may be an effect. The point is that with the $18 million in salary you would have an excellent chance of making up the difference and more on the run saving side. If you were able to replace the innings that Lidle, Hendrickson and Sturtze have provided with league average innings only (not hard to do with $18 million - not even taking into account the nearly $6 million spent on the three pitchers) you would more than make up the difference.

Lidle is about 1.5 runs/ 9 innings above average = approx. 30 runs
Hendrickson is about 1 run/9 above average = approx. 18 runs
Sturtz is avout 1.5 runs/9 abover average = approx. 10 runs

I recognize that there are far more precise measures for the run saving than the method above but it approximates the impact of their lousy performance.

Carlos is a great player. Probably my favourite player of this generation of Jays. The PR impact of the move would be rough but I think it is the best way to accelerate the teams growth. Put simply a run saved is as good as a run earned. In this case, I think the cost of the run earned from a budget perspective it too high and the runs saved could be obtained more cheaply.

http://economics.about.com
Who is going to take Delgado at $18m per on this market, though?

It's also obvious that Dontrelle Willis is a steal at 300K. The Jays should get him too while they're at it. :)

Mike

The point is that with the $18 million in salary you would have an excellent chance of making up the difference and more on the run saving side.

Nigel, as much as I'd absolutely hate to see it happen, you're probably right...but it's not realistic. The problem is that with the reality of the new economic environment in MLB, a Delgado trade will not result in a net gain of $18.5MM for the Jays. It's very likely they would have to either pay part of his salary or take back salary in order to get a deal done. If JP only saves $10MM, for example, instead of $18.5MM, the chance to make up the loss of Delgado's production with gains on the run saving side diminishes severely.

Mike you may be right about the whole $18 million but I think a lot depends on what you want back. Given its only one more year, if you want nothing or next to nothing back, then I'm not sure you couldn't get someone to take most if not all of that salary. If you want value back, I agree completely, you won't move the contract. My point is, assume you get nothing back, you can still come out ahead. Certainly after next season, I think you have to spend the money on pitching rather than say $12-14 million on Delgado.

Spicol, I'm actually not that pessimistic about finding 400 league average innings for even $12 million (which, as I mentioned above is really $18 million given you do not pay Lidle, Sturtze and Hendrickson).

Anyway the point of this is not to play fantasy on who you could or could not get. The point was just to say that even with Delgado having a fantastic year, his net contribution relative to the other internal options does not justify the salary (given the budget restraints) and if you could move most of the salary this year I would do it and I certainly would not contemplate resigning him next year unless the clubs roster is drastically reconstituted such that they are not so desperate for pitching.

I wouldn't limit Gold Gloves to centerfielders. A leftfielder or rightfielder can be as valuable as a premier centerfielder if he covers a ton of ground. UZR, in my opinion, shows that some LFs and RFs can accumulate some eye-popping defensive numbers... guys like Darin Erstad (now deservingly a CF), Reggie Sanders, Carl Crawford, Trot Nixon, Garret Anderson, Geoff Jenkins... these are terrific defenders who add a lot of value... though part of that value comes from simply playing well at a position where there are so many poor defenders. In the final analysis, though, a corner OF has to be absolutely outstanding to be as good as a premier CF.

Ichiro is a very good outfielder in my opinion, one of the best rightfielders in baseball. Maybe *the* best. (OK, maybe not... Richard Hidalgo is better than Ichiro). On the other hand, he's not that great going for balls hit over his head (an anecdotal observation based on very little evidence, it's true). His zone ratings are good, but not great.

No modern outfielder saves even five runs a year with his arm (except Larry Walker I guess), so I just don't think throwing makes that much of a difference. Incidentally, Ichiro's arm has been studied *a lot* and those studies have shown that he doesn't inhibit players from taking extra bases all that well.

Ichiro is probably one of the ten best outfielders in the AL. But when the top of the pool has four everyday centerfielders who each do six impossible things before breakfast, and three guys of the quality of Singleton, Damon and Baldelli... I don't know. Ichiro is definitely in the class of the last three guys (I think he's better than Damon because who can be a Gold Glover with a rag arm?). But to put him in some class by himself as some of the writers seem to do is very odd.

Plus, don't forget Erstad, who is easily a match for Wells, Cameron, Beltran and Hunter.

Finally, a bitchy point. Who the $%^@!#$% is running on Rocco Baldelli to rack that guy up 15 assists? Is taking an extra base against the *Devil Rays* that good an idea? Given how their starters have performed this year, until the seventh inning comes along I'd be happy telling my guys to go one base at a time unless it hits the wall.

The thing about Delgado for me is that a) he's moving into his thirties, and b) his knees continue to be a recurring problem (according to Mike Wilner). That doesn't sound to me like a guy I'd want to commit a lot more money to. Especially on any kind of a long-term contract. I'd be sorry to see him go, but it might be the smart thing to do.

And a trade might be better than the free agency draft pick. If the Jays are going to try to go for all the marbles in the 2005-7 time frame without Delgado, whatever they get back in a trade is going to help with that more than some guy who's going to spend half that time in A-ball.

And a trade might be better than the free agency draft pick. If the Jays are going to try to go for all the marbles in the 2005-7 time frame without Delgado, whatever they get back in a trade is going to help with that more than some guy who's going to spend half that time in A-ball.

But if the Jays were going for it in 2005-2007 the picks that they acquired for Delgado could be flipped for current ML players.

Also, regarding using Delgado's money on other players - a portion of that money will be eaten by raises of current Jays.

the picks that they acquired for Delgado could be flipped for current ML players

If the subcommittee decides to make draft picks tradeable, they'll likely also decide to get rid of FA compensation...at least that's where it stood last I checked...so there will be no picks acquired for losing Delgado.

I think Delgado was the MVP of the entire league before the All-Star Break

Me too. He had an awesome first half. Using the "who would you pick first if they were lined up against the fence?" approach -- don't laugh, it's selected Bonds and A-Rod for years -- I'd take Wells over Delgado, but Doc would be my choice. He has the greatest impact on a game, and his three great starts on three days's rest were pretty special.

By any other standard, Carlos is the MVP. He deserves extra credit for making Wells better than anyone expected. He's improved his defence, he's played hurt. If Delgado does move on in 2005, Vernon will have enormous shoes to fill as the team leader.

We could pick this discussion up elsewhere -- or here, it doesn't really matter -- but who the dickens is going to win the AL MVP award? I have pledged to avoid discussion of this -- and, for once, I will be true to my word -- but let's get a tally from Non-John-Gizzi BB folks:

1) Who SHOULD win the award;
2) Who WILL win the award;
2a) In the event that A-Rod DOES NOT win the award, how many "The writers blew it again" complaints will surge the Internet faster than rumours of an Iranian nuclear weapons "program"; I place the over/under of such complaints at 4,455,194.

1) A-Rod.

2) Boone (defensible choice only in that he's my runner-up for #1).

I'll take the over in a hearbeat.

Should - Alex Rodriguez but it's still too soon. I think only Loaiza and Hudson could reasonably catch him in my view.

Will - It's very very late for the media not to have coalesced around a candidate as they usually do at this time. I think A-Rod will win, he should receive a similar proportion of votes as last year and that should be enough to see him through a crowded field. He is not *likely* to win... but he has the best chance out of any one person.

If A-Rod doesn't win - It won't be a good candidate unless it's Boone. Delgado and Ramirez are reasonable choices, but won't win; Boone wouldn't be bad at all. Loaiza and Hudson (and Halladay) have zero chance of winning the award. If A-Rod doesn't win, I'm betting some lame candidate like Ichiro or Soriano or Keith Foulke gets a push in the last week from some prominent writers and they win. Garret Anderson might get it, which would be the ultimate indignity to A-Rod.

Worst case scenario : Shannon Stewart. :)

By the way, I was looking back at old voting tallies and 1999 caught my eye. Impossible to believe that God's Other Son, Derek Jeter, could have the kind of year he had in 1999 and only get one first-place vote. If he did that nowadays, he'd not only be the unanimous MVP, he'd get half the first-place votes in the National League MVP race.

Robert:

Why your unwillingnes to use Win Shares in order to weigh Wells' superior glove against Delgado's superior bat? They may not be perfect, but at least provide a baseline to consider that you can use alongside whatever fancy new tool you're abusing Mike Moffatt with.

Jurgen,

Win shares approaches the problem a bit differently, in that it apportions more defensive win shares for the key positions and fewer for the "hitting" positions. Here I chose to set a different offensive replacement level for the two players based on position. Win shares doesn't do that: it makes all the positional adjustments on the defensive side.

Criag et al,

I think it would be more logical to give 1 GG for each outfield position; after all, the voters don't have the option of giving 2 GGs to shortstops and none to a 1B in any given year.

Just forget about trading Carlos. He will be here until his deal runs out at least due to his no-trade. If he wanted to waive it he would have done so last year. Now that the team is improving I can't see any way he would agree to be traded. Every indication he's ever given is that he's happy in Toronto and wants to remain a Blue Jay. Since the choice is his, I can't see it happening any other way under his current contract.

If a lesser hitter were batting behind Wells, Vernon would get fewer good pitches. He would likely draw more walks and have fewer hits.

I'm not so sure about this. The part of the equation you have omitted is that switching Carlos and Vernon means Wells bats far more often with one of the best on-base guys in the league ahead of him. If Carlos is already on base, would pitchers really nibble at Wells and risk having 2 runners on for Phelps or whoever follows? I'm inclined to think not.

It's a been a few years, and I don't know in which book he wrote it, but I believe Bill James did a study on this using Dale Murphy and Bob Horner, and concluded the former hit just as well whether Horner was healthy and batting behind him or not (not that this is exactly a huge sample size).

I seem to recall a similar Cal Ripken/Eddie Murray study done by James, too. Could be my advancing years, but I'm fairly certain the conclusion was that James discounted the effect these guys had on each other in the batting order.

Should Win: Carlos Delgado (Though Boone is a veeerrry close second)
Will Win: Alex Rodriguez

I also find it tough to see Delgado getting dealt. What you have to consider is who has the money to pay him, and who could fit him into their lineup. A team like the Yankees, who seem to have a bottomless supply of money, just have no need for him with Johnson and Giambi around. Other teams that could surely use him don't have the cash. In the end, it would all depend on how much salary the Jays would eat, and how choosy they would be in the players they received. As I see it, there are a few remote possibilities. These are, in no particular order: Atlanta, Baltimore, Oakland, Seattle, San Francisco, the Cubs, and the Dodgers. Let me explain...

Atlanta

Robert Fick has been OK this year, but this is a good lineup to hit in. Cleary, offence is not their problem. But with Maddux’s salary likely off the books next year they might well have some cash at their disposal in the offseason. Personally, I think Atlanta is the place that Escobar will end up. I don’t see Delgado ending up here.

Baltimore

A need at 1st exists, and Angelos has stated his willingness to spend money. Baltimore is often mentioned as one of the likely destinations for Vlad. I doubt JP would want to see Delgado wearing a Baltimore jersey… even if it means saving 18 million dollars (I know that’s saying a lot).

Oakland

Don’t laugh! Yes, they re-signed Hatteberg, and Durazo has been OK at DH, but I don’t think this is completely unworkable. Indeed, Toronto would have to eat some salary, but this is the team that offered Giambi 15 million a year. In short, Delgado is a Beane type of player – except for the salary (a key distinction I know). If Oakland let’s Tejada walk and starts the year with Crosby, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Delgado move halfway through the season when his salary would be easier to swallow – especially if Oakland’s offence is slumping. Remember, Oakland has made rent-a-player deals before, and Beane and JP have a good working relationship.

Cubs

A longshot. Although they tried to get Palmeiro at the deadline, I think they’ll give Choi another shot next spring.

San Francisco

JT Snow is overpaid, and Sabean would be happy to replace him. If Bonds leaves, as has been rumoured (yet remains unlikely), he’ll have one big hole to fill, and a lot of money to do it with. Of course, as great as Delgado is, he can’t fill Bonds’ shoes all on his own. But, if the Jays were to eat some salary this could be a match. The Jays would take “the other” Jerome Williams in a heartbeat, but that isn’t a realistic possibility.

Los Angeles

The Dodgers need offence. To some, this might be a controversial statement. I can hear the argument now: “no, they don’t NEED offence, they need to improve their runs scored to runs allowed differential, and whether they add more pitching or more hitting it makes no difference.” This argument might hold more sway with me if they weren’t second last in runs scored and 12 games back despite having a fine pitching staff. LA has typically been regarded as a wealthy organization, though their coffers might be spent. Still, a Green-Delgado reunion is not out of the question.

Seattle

If Martinez retires, a roster spot opens up. Seattle has one of the best bullpens in baseball, and has some good starters to rely on. In addition, some of their SP prospects (Nageotte, Blackley) are very promising. I don't think pitching is a long-term concern for the organization. Martinez’s salary (4 million) is a start, but what if the Mariners opted to deal the Jays’ Garcia in addition? He clears a fair amount of salary from the team. Of course, the Mariners could simply opt not to offer him salary arbitration, so that would solve that problem for them. Also, it should be noted that the Jays wouldn’t want to have him, but if this were your choice, what would you do? I think we can forget about receiving a premium guy, like Soriano, for Delgado. If Seattle misses the playoffs, Gillick will be under pressure to act. Of course, the Mariners could always opt to go after Kaz Matsui, which wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for them.

A trade doesn't seem likely. If Delgado would sign a long-term contract for, say, 12 million a year would this be a smart investment for the Jays? Obviously, signing Halladay is job #1, and I don't think it's an easy job. I wouldn't be shocked to hear Halladay ask for 12 million himself, especially if he wins the CY Young.

Oakland

Don’t laugh!

I'm sure Beane would try it. If you believe Michael Lewis (and why shouldn't we?), Beane tried to sign Bonds AND Sheffield after Giambi's departure. But ownership didn't want to pay for them. And I doubt they'd pay for Delgado (even if he'd likely be a great influence on Chavez reaching his potential).

I dunno. Did Beane REALLY try to sign Bonds and Sheffield or was it a PR move? Why would Beane ever bother to pursue these players when he knew ownership would never go for it? It's like saying to your wife, "Honey, if you think I'm going out to meet another woman tonight why don't you come along?" You know she won't come because she trusts you, but it sure sounds nice -- and then you proceed to meet the other woman and have a grand time. I don't believe Beane for a minute was serious about acquiring BOTH Bonds and Sheffield. One? I'll allow it, but only barely.

Look, simply because Beane "confessed" this garbage to Michael Lewis doesn't make it any more true than when Gammons comes up with his "Vlad and Bonds and A-rod to the Dodgers is a DONE DEAL" mumbo jumbo. To whip up the Standard Media Warning "because it's in print doesn't make it true," just as when Ann Coulter says in her book Slander that the New York Times did not run an article about Dale Earnhardt's death on its front page, showing how "Liberals have absolutely no contact with the society they decry from their Park Avenue redoubts." Well, Coulter was right after all. The Times didn't run one article on the front page. They ran TWO.

Moneyball is no doubt a terrific look at the A's and an entertaining read, but it, like so many texts, should not be confused with Absolute Truth.

And Delgado to the A's? If only!

Did Beane REALLY try to sign Bonds and Sheffield or was it a PR move?

Well, why wouldn't he? Do you think he doesn't want to win? Of *course* he would have tried to lobby ownership to sign Bonds and Sheffield. Who wouldn't want Gary Sheffield in their lineup?

It's worth a try!

Good point, Craig. I was just commenting, more or less, on the "Duh" nature of the request. I don't know we should point to it as a sign of Beane's willingness to sign big names instead of Scott-Hatteberg types.

You know, I like Beane far more than I let on here, but he seems so much like my friend who shops at thrift stores it's scary. Ed (my friend) buys literally dozens of one-dollar shirts, thrilled at the deals he's receiving. But then he never wears them. So I ask him, "Wouldn't it be better if you bought a new shirt that you actually wore for, say, $15, rather than spending $50 on shirts you never wear? Isn't that a better allocation of your money?"

Beane loves to collect minor-league hitters or major leaguers with good peripherals -- like Hatteberg, Erubiel Durazo, Olmedo Saenz, Billy McMillon, et al -- who may or may not pan out. But maybe, rather than going for the thrill of the ride in case they catch lightning in a bottle (ugh) with one of those clowns, they should just sign Delgado and be done with it.

Gitz, I think your Ed analogy is exactly right, and it's my persistent fear about J.P. I really wonder whether J.P. wears a low payroll like a badge of honour.

Is there any rational reason for J.P. announcing now that the Jays are slashing their budget from $50M to $48M next year? It just seems so unjust that Gord Ash had $78M to waste, with comparable attendance and ratings.

Frankly, I'd rather J.P. adopt his "beg, borrow and steal" public persona that he discussed in June. I'd even take the Pat Quinn "we have the means to go get what we need, if we decide we need it" posture. Instead, it seems to be "You're not going to believe how cheap I'm going to get you a top-tier offence!" I have faith in his ability to do so, of course. I also have faith in his ability to make even better, more sensible acquisitions with more money to play with.

As a city, Toronto is so much bigger and richer than Oakland that you'd think that J.P. would enjoy the ability to out-bid Beane for the undervalued guys. Instead, he's setting up the club for flawed (i.e. defence) but clearly above-average low-budget clubs going forward.

Look, if the Jays have committed to never paying Delgado dollars to any one player, then why not load up a little for a run next year while you still have an elite, mature power hitter-slash-team leader around? Stop worrying about his '04 salary, because he'll never agree to a trade. Sunk cost, I say!

As I've said before, SkyDome is not the Alameda Coliseum complex. Fans will turn out in droves to see a playoff-calibre team, and will watch the games, buy the concessions and sit in the luxury boxes. I guarantee it!

Remember, this team had a mid-50s payroll two collective bargaining agreements ago, when the club was winning.

I really wonder whether J.P. wears a low payroll like a badge of honour.

In the sense that he's proud of what he's accomplished, yes. I think he draws attention to the payroll limitations (and the $2 MM cut next year) because it puts every move he's made in perspective, and explains some he didn't make, especially in the bullpen.

Fans will turn out in droves to see a playoff-calibre team, and will watch the games, buy the concessions and sit in the luxury boxes. I guarantee it!

Mike, I wish your guarantee would prompt Rogers to spend $50 million on a couple of all-star arms, but even that gamble might not result in a winner next year. If they are entertaining and competitive in 2004, Ricciardi deserves backing whenever he thinks his team is ready. Maybe they will be surprise contenders again and decide to be buyers next July. I don't think J.P. will ask for additional money until he's sure it's the final piece of the puzzle.

I really wonder whether J.P. wears a low payroll like a badge of honour.

Well, Ricciardi did say once something to the effect that if Rogers jacked up the payroll that he'd lose interest and quit. Anybody remember that?

I took it to mean that he was talking about a situation whereby Rogers was forcing Ricciardi away from his long-term plan and trying to go for the short-term fix. But it does make you wonder.

Win shares my arse, one of those polls had Vizquel 3rd to last and one poll had Andrew Jones last in the National League defensive wise, you can take win shares and jam it. Vizquel may be the best defensive ss of all times bar NONE!! Andrew Jones may have better range than anyone in baseball and Vernon Wells isnt far behind!!

MLB.com has a poll asking the Jays' MVP question. Halladay has received 4427 (70%) of 6351 votes cast, with Delgado at 16% and Wells at 12%. 150 people (or one enthusiastic fan with too much time on his hands) voted for Greg Myers.

Ricciardi did say once something to the effect that if Rogers jacked up the payroll that he'd lose interest and quit.

J.P. says a lot of things that are meant as jokes but get reported verbatim. My take on this completely hypothetical remark was that he does enjoy the challenge, which wouldn't be as great if he could sign superstar free agents. If they ever do raise his budget, he won't complain, he'll just spend it wisely -- above all, the guy wants to win.