Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Game 151: Doc Guns For 21

Do you think a lot of righthanded Tiger batters complained about little aches and pains and volunteered to sit tonight? Nobody in the AL looks forward to hitting against Roy Halladay. Whether you think the ten-inning shutout, the three straight complete games, the 0.78 ERA on short rest or The Streak was the highlight of his season, it's been tremendous. As Carlos Tosca told Mike Klis of the Denver Post, "You get the feeling he could close for us in the games between his starts."

Mike D compared this to an NCAA hoops tournament mismatch, but if Halladay is Kansas, poor Shane Loux is an intramural team at Humber College. Doc is 8-1 with three complete games and a 1.72 ERA against the Tigers. Loux has an 8.22 ERA at home.

Phelps sits in favour of Cash; Myers could catch, but is the DH. Reed Johnson gets a night off, with Cat and Hinske at the top of the order.

Posted by Coach on Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 06:59 AM EDT.

Game 151: Doc Guns For 21 | 48 comments | Create New Account

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Craig B - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#91808) #

The boys are up there hackin' away again. Is it just me, or has this team's plate discipline gone south since the All-Star Break?

Craig B - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#91809) #

Carlos, as always, excepted. :)

Gitz - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#91810) #

One of these years, that #16 seed is going to get by the #1 seed -- and it wouldn't be a shock if it was Kansas on the losing end. How many tournament brackets has that team ruined??? Perhaps only Temple -- this is the year, really! -- has ruined as many.

I doubt tonight's #16 -- Loux -- will knock off Halladay. Regrettably, I have been wrong about such fearless predictions in the past ...

Coach - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#91811) #

Doc lost his no-hitter on the first pitch tonight, as Sanchez ripped a get-ahead fastball for a double. Excellent job to get a ground ball, line drive (nicely snared by Delgado) and strikeout to strand him at third.

In the second inning, Doc again gave up a leadoff double, this one followed by an infield hit, but got out of it with a bouncer to Hinske, who neatly turned it into a double play.

When Halladay doesn't have his best stuff, he's a battler. It's about time his teammates scored a few runs for him.

Coach - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#91812) #

Thanks, Eric. Thanks, Vernon. 2-0 is a beginning.

Prior to the third, Pat Tabler predicted "the Tigers have had their chances" and Doc will settle down. Good insight. Of course, Tabby also said Roy has "simpled" his pitch selection.

Even when he's not completely dominant, Halladay is remarkably efficient. Despite the baserunners, he needed just nine pitches in the first inning and 13 in the second. Now he's getting into a groove, snapping curveballs for two straight K's to end the third.

Mike D - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#91813) #

Stuck at work, Coach; was Cash's single a legitimate slump-buster?

Coach - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#91814) #

With O-Dawg on the move from first, Kevin Cash ended what I believe was an 0-for-19 and got his average back above .120 with a double to left that he proceeded to run into a single. Not that it mattered; third time through the order, Frank Catalanotto clubbed a 2-run triple over the center fielder's head, and Hinske cashed him with a single up the middle to make it 5-0 and end Loux' evening. Cat appeared to tweak a hammy or something rounding second, but he's still in there.

Mike D - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#91815) #

Thanks, Coach. I was getting worried about Cash when his OPS dropped below .300. That's right, his OPS dropped below .300, after last night's game.

It appears that Mount St. Mary's will not topple Kentucky this year.

_rodent - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#91816) #

Bottom of the sixth... What excellent defense!

Craig B - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#91817) #

73 pitches through six, and the shutout is still intact. Roy's a good bet to go nine again, which would make it four complete games in a row.

Coach - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#91818) #

Sparky came in for Cat after all, and wasted no time extending his hitting streak to 14 games with a double.

Fine fielding play by Doc and a good stretch by Carlos to get the speedy Santiago leading off the sixth. Awesome play by Bordick to stop a Morris grounder up the middle and throw from his knees for the third out; unfortunately, first base ump Bill Welke called the man safe. The next guy singled, but the unflappable Halladay struck out Young to end another threat.

Coach - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#91819) #

Glad to see Vernon Wells has a little larceny in his soul. He almost made a spectacular diving catch, but "sold" the attempt so well, the ump called it an out. Then V-Dub laughed about it with Kielty. Bordick followed by ranging to the right side of the bag for a smooth 6-3 putout. An easy seventh for Doc.

Dave Till - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#91820) #

87 pitches through 8 innings. Wow.

Craig B - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#91821) #

Seven pitches in the eighth. I think the Tigers have dinner reservations.

Craig B - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#91822) #

Terrific outing, by the way, from Matt Roney in relief.

Craig B - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#91823) #

Down, boy! Eckenstahler wants to launch into the second deck I think.

Mike D - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#91824) #

If Matt Roney could pitch against only the Jays, we wouldn't be mentioning Halladay or Loaiza.

That's 12 shutout innings of four-hit ball on the season against Toronto.

Craig B - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#91825) #

Haha... Carlos Delgado just went up there and swung with his eyes closed, right?

Coach - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#91826) #

Twenty-one wins. Four straight complete games. Nineteen consecutive shutout innings against the Tigers. This guy is good. Two more starts to nail down the Cy Young.

Craig B - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#91827) #

9 6 0 0 0 7, game score 82.

Casual dominance from Halladay.

I like the fact that Pena refused to go quietly in the last at-bat... the Tigers don't have too many keepers, but he is one - no doubt about it.

Mike D - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#91828) #

Four words:

Harry Leroy ****ing Halladay.

Mike D - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#91829) #

I meant to say, of course,

Harry Leroy [Expletive] Halladay.

HTML does weird things with asterisks...

Coach - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#91830) #

Mike, that's a Greymatter "feature," not HTML -- two asterisks is a GM shortcut to turn bold on and off. Maybe I can disable it, because it's been confusing before.

But we know what you mean...

Gitz - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#91831) #

(Warning: putting Devil's Advocate Hat on ... now)

So it's OK for Halladay to dominate the Tigers, thereby helping his Cy Young chances, but Loaiza can't get away with it? It's OK for Halladay to have a higher E.R.A. than Tim Hudson, but because he has more wins that makes him the front-runner for the award? Hudson should have 20 wins; he can thank Keith Foulke for that blemish. I don't know how many Halladay's 'pen has blown -- probably not many, since Roy is determined to finish his starts himself!

(Taking Devil's Advocate Cap off ... now)

_Matthew Elmslie - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#91832) #

Gitz: I think Loaiza has still faced easier opposition than Halladay has, over the course of the year. I might vote for Hudson over Halladay based on the ERA, but then again Halladay's IP might sway me back the other way.

I just checked the Jays media guide to see what the team record was for consecutive complete games. Stieb holds it with seven in '80, so Halladay isn't close to anything there.

Gitz - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#91833) #

Matthew: that wasn't Gitz, that was his Devil's Advocate.

You can't go wrong with Hudson or Halladay, or even Loaiza for my mind.

I love Halladay; he's easily my second-favorite pitcher in the AL behind Mark Mulder. The two are similar, among other ways, in that when they're on, they're ON. Nobody touches them. Granted, many pitchers look dominant when they're on, but it seems different with Hallady and Mulder; they'll throw four-hit shutouts in two hours, with a tight economy of pitches, and after the game you'll leave the stadium scratching your head to think of someone who hit the ball hard.

Contrast that to when Barry Zito, for instance, or even Pedro Martinez, fires a two-hitter: you can see them working. Halladay looks like he could throw nine more, and Mulder is the same way. It's beautiful.

Mike D - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#91834) #

Roy Halladay has made an amazing eleven starts against Boston and the Yankees. Loaiza has made a combined eleven against Detroit and Minnesota, while Hudson's most regular opponent has been Anaheim with 5, although he'll make his fourth and fifth starts against the Mariners as the season concludes.

Edge to Doc. Admittedly, Hudson and Loaiza have each baffled both the Bosox and Yankees (albeit in smaller sample sizes).

_perlhack - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#91835) #

So it's OK for Halladay to dominate the Tigers, thereby helping his Cy Young chances, but Loaiza can't get away with it?

There's no problem per se, if there was a half-decent distribution for Loaiza's starts. The fact is, Loaiza has gained quite an advantage from facing the Tigers.

Loaiza
vs Tigers: 1.21 ERA, 44.2 IP
vs others: 3.33 ERA, 162.1 IP
Total: 2.87 ERA, 207 IP

Halladay:
vs Tigers: 0.69 ERA, 26 IP
vs others: 3.46 ERA, 226 IP
Total: 3.18 ERA, 252 IP

Aside: Halladay also has 45.1 IP vs BOS, with a 4.77 ERA; facing the best offence in baseball that often has hurt him a little, no?

Pistol - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#91836) #

Well, I think Doc locked up the Cy Young tonight.

Whether he should get it over Hudson is another matter. If you adjust for parks and defense their ERA's I believe would be pretty close (without adjustments they are 2.66 vs 3.18 right now).

190,000+ the hits keep on coming. I'd be cool to see a bar chart of the month by month views over the past year.

_Jurgen - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#91837) #

Halladay differs from Mulder in one important stat--Roy appears to have an IQ over 89.

Mulder's also never tossed as many innings as Halladay has now two years in a row.

Intellectually I know Hudson should probably be the Cy Young winner (he leads BP's SNW--and that's not including Loaiza's shelling--and James' WS), but I have a hard time believing he's not getting by on luck. He's Lowe version 2003. I don't understand how a pitcher can have a K/9 rate that's so low (5.9) and so far below his career average (6.8), and still be this successful. He seems to be getting by on a dramatic decrease in hits on balls in play (plus more modest decreases in HR/9 and BB/9)... and we all know what to think of that (actually, we don't anymore, thank you Mr. Tippett).

Anyone feel up to the DIPS task? (It's too late for me.)

_Andrew Edwards - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#91838) #

My 'who deserves it' rankings:

1) Loaiza
2) Pedro
3) Halladay
4) Hudson

My 'who will win it' prediction:

1) Halladay
2) Loaiza
3) Hudson
4) Someone else

robertdudek - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 07:31 AM EDT (#91839) #

I just can't believe that Pedro, with his massive innings disadvantage comared to Doc, has been more valuable. Hudson has a case, but as Pistol noted, the park adjustement alone almost eliminates the ERA gap (not to mention defence). Doc is now fully deserving.

Dave Till - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#91840) #

I freely admit to being biased, but I think that Doc's IP total is enough to make him the leading candidate at this point. He's pitched 45 more innings than Loaiza, and zillions more than Pedro.

He's allowed only one unearned run in his last 36 innings, and voters tend to notice that sort of thing.

Plus, the league lead in wins doesn't hurt :-).

Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#91841) #

http://economics.about.com
Anyone feel up to the DIPS task?

Sure. Here's the DIPS stats for a few of the guys mentioned. Keep in mind these are not park adjusted, and do not consider strength of schedule issues.

NAME dERA IP
Martinez 2.45 176.7
Loaiza 3.14 207
Halladay 3.42 252
Hudson 3.44 227
Mulder 3.56 186.7

Cheers,

Mike

Craig B - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#91842) #

That Bronx Banter interview with Michael Lewis that Jurgen linked to is great. One thing I thought was funny: two quotes from Lewis *from the same interview*...

. I'll tell you who is not reading it: women. My sense is that 95 out of every hundred readers are male. There have been very few responses from women; lots and lots of responses from guys.

and then

Mulder is vacant. There is nothing there. He's like a beautiful woman who has never had to think.

Yeah... big, hulking mystery there, Mike.

My 'who deserves it' rankings:

1) Loaiza
2) Pedro
3) Halladay
4) Hudson

My 'who will win it' prediction:

1) Halladay
2) Loaiza
3) Hudson
4) Someone else

Who will win : Halladay over Loaiza.

Who should win : Can I choose a tie between Halladay, Loaiza and Hudson? No? Ugh. I'll go with HLH. But it's mighty close. I think Loaiza has a very slight edge in MVP over the other two, but Halladay and Hudson have been the (slightly) better pitchers.

Pistol - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#91843) #

It's OK for Halladay to have a higher E.R.A. than Tim Hudson, but because he has more wins that makes him the front-runner for the award? Hudson should have 20 wins; he can thank Keith Foulke for that blemish. I don't know how many Halladay's 'pen has blown -- probably not many, since Roy is determined to finish his starts himself!

That's exactly why wins shouldn't be discounted as much as some might (but they're still overrated by voters). If you finish the game yourself instead of letting someone else do it I think that does make you the better pitcher.

Hudson has some blown saves? Guess he should have finished the games himself.

Coach - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#91844) #

Roy appears to have an IQ over 89.

A Jeff Blair piece in the Globe earlier this summer mentioned that Cory Lidle was the team's best chess player; he dispatched Jeff Tam in four moves. Doc, overmatched at first, studied a book, practiced and improved until he was competitive.

Remember that Carlos Tosca and Gil Patterson spent a lot of time around Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, so when they praise their ace for his mental and emotional makeup, they are comparing him to legends.

"I don't know every pitcher in baseball," Patterson told Spencer Fordin in July, "but if [Halladay's mental strength is] not the best, I'd like to meet the guy who is the best."

Doc's got some physical tools, too. He will win the award, and nobody could deserve it more. I wouldn't trade him for any pitcher in the game -- doesn't that make him the most valuable?

_Jurgen - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#91845) #

Doc, overmatched at first, studied a book, practiced and improved until he was competitive.

I didn't know that. I was going simply how well spoken he is during those post-game interviews with knuckleheads Cerutti and Tabler.

Cory Lidle was the team's best chess player

Josh doesn't play chess?

he dispatched Jeff Tam in four moves

Good god, if only the Jays could get rid of him so handily.

I wouldn't trade him for any pitcher in the game

No, probably not. I mean, there's always young Prior, and if Pedro were capable of surpassing 200 innings anymore, but I'm perfectly ecstastic with Roy.

Mike D - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#91846) #

he dispatched Jeff Tam in four moves

In fairness, this was after Tam ate one of his rooks.*

*Note: refers to Tam gnawing his jersey to shreds, not an insinuation of village idiocy

Gerry - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#91847) #

Good god, if only the Jays could get rid of him so handily.

I did not see it commented on here in DaBox but the Jays released Jeff Tam from Syracuse after the season ended. I guess Coach decided that a "Best Wishes Jeff Tam" thread was not required.

_A - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#91848) #

Nothing better than the day after a Halladay start at Da Box...It's just one of those things that still seems good the morning after.

_Chuck Van Den C - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#91849) #

I wouldn't trade him for any pitcher in the game -- doesn't that make him the most valuable?

I think I could be persuaded to accept Mark Prior in exchange... but now, before death-by-Dusty occurs.

_Ben NS - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#91850) #

Halladay is incredible and because of his massive innings total and overall dominance deserves to be one of the front-runners for the Cy-Young award.
I sure wish that I'd been around for the Stieb years, though, because Bill James has him ranked as one of the top couple of A.L. pitchers for three or four years in the 80's and as a stellar contributor for the rest of the decade.
Still, though, Prince Hal is just that- a prince of a guy who is well-liked by the fans, media and players.
I'll reserve judgement as to who is really better at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Halladay come out on top a few years down the road.
Ben

Craig B - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#91851) #

I sure wish that I'd been around for the Stieb years, though, because Bill James has him ranked as one of the top couple of A.L. pitchers for three or four years in the 80's and as a stellar contributor for the rest of the decade.

He was an obnoxious, crotch-grabbing whiner. But holy freakin' hell, could he pitch.

_Matthew Elmslie - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#91852) #

I started watching this show too late to see the vintage Stieb; he was in his mid-career slump at the time I came aboard. I only got to see the '88-'90 Stieb Renaissance, and that was plenty impressive. I read Stieb's book, and a few other things about him, and he came across as a somewhat sympathetic figure. He'd be the first to admit that he acted like a jerk at times, but deep down I don't think he was that bad of a guy.

Halladay has a long way to go before you can put him ahead of Stieb. For that matter, he's got a ways to go before you can put him ahead of Pat Hentgen, although I think he will achieve that.

robertdudek - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#91853) #

I think he's about tied with Hentgen now.

I was a fortunate to become a serious baseball fan just as Stieb entered the majors. One of the great pitchers of our time, but you'd never know it by the lack of attention outside of Toronto.

_Matthew Elmslie - Thursday, September 18 2003 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#91854) #

I think he's about tied with Hentgen now.

I figured it like this: Halladay's had two great years, and some other scraps of success. Hentgen's had - as I eyeball his page at Baseball Reference - four good-to-great years (as a Jay)('93, '94, '96, '97), and some other scraps of success, and he won a freaking World Series game. I think Hentgen's still ahead.

_perlhack - Friday, September 19 2003 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#91855) #

I was a fortunate to become a serious baseball fan just as Stieb entered the majors. One of the great pitchers of our time, but you'd never know it by the lack of attention outside of Toronto.

I remember reading an article at ESPN.com last year (or perhaps 2001) about Randy Johnson's string of excellent seasons, what with another Cy Young in reach for 2002. The article analyzed the top 10 or 20 5-year plus spans for pitchers since 1920 (I think).

Dave Stieb's 1980-1985 was in that list.

Note: I googled for the article, but I couldn't find it. I did find several others discussing Johnson's amazing seasons, Clemens and Maddux for HoF, Blyleven's misunderstood stats etc. I also found a related article from BP.

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