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Remember spring training? Back then, the Blue Jays' rotation looked like this: Roy Halladay, Cory Lidle, Tanyon Sturtze, Pete Walker and Mark Hendrickson. Had we told you back then that Lurch would have been the second-best starter of the lot -- and that his mid-September line would be 9-9, 5.46, 153 IP, 199 H, 39 BB, 75 K -- then you'd probably have predicted the Jays and Rays would be battling for the basement right about now. Thanks to the big bats and the remarkable in-season transformation of Kelvim Escobar, the Jays might yet hit their 85-win plateau. But it's no thanks to their erstwhile #2 and 3 starters.

Here's what the two righties have contributed this year:

Cory Lidle
12-13, 6.04, 177 IP, 205 H, 55 BB, 100 K
Tanyon Sturtze
7-6, 5.94, 89 IP, 107 H, 43 BB, 54 K

With even league-average starters in these slots, the Blue Jays might have been serious wild-card contenders right now. As it stands, neither of these men will be wearing the Fighting Jay logo next season, and no one hereabouts is likely to shed a tear about that. JP continues to do a remarkable job turning the organization around, but it must be acknowledged the stopgap pitching he brought in to fill the rotation behind Roy Halladay has been a disaster.

You can lay Sturtze's performance at JP's feet, I think: there was no indication from Tanyon's pre-Jays career that he was anything but a lousy pitcher, and there should never have been any expectation that that would change. Granted, $1M doesn't buy you a whole lot on the open market these days, but Sturtze is a #5 starter at best, and passing him off as other than that was a little disingenuous. The only reason his final numbers aren't far worse is that Tosca hid him in the bullpen for most of the season, after the extent of his destructive capability became clear. So Sturtze was bad, but not shockingly so.

Lidle, on the other hand, has to be classified as a disappointment. Again, he was oversold as a #2 starter when he's a #3 or #4 most days, but the guy has never had this kind of horrible season. His ERAs the last two years were 3.59 and 3.89; if those numbers hid wildly inconsistent first and second halves, well, the final results were pretty good season and even had stretches of dominance. Nothing of the sort was evident in Toronto this season; even Lidle's good first-half record was undermined by bad secondary numbers. The Jays badly needed someone to follow their ace and maintain strings of solid outings; in that respect, Cory was walking a tightrope in the first half and fell off completely in the second. And let's not forget that handsome $4.6M contract he's wearing around his collar.

I don't mean to be spiteful here; I'm sure both of these guys are as disappointed with their seasons as we are. But there's also no question that more was expected of them -- fairly or otherwise -- and they did not deliver at all. So you make the call: who was the bigger disappointment, Tanyon or Cory? Or is there a third Blue Jay who let you down even more in '03?
Tanyon vs. Cory | 33 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Pistol - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#13988) #
I remember reading JP say that in a perfect world Sturtze would be the Jays 5th starter, so I don't think their expectations were all that great (although certainly not hit).

I think Lidle is more of a disappointment just because the expectations were higher, and he had streaks of greatness prior to this season.

I'm not convinced that we've seen the last of Lidle. Depending on what's out there for the Jays and Lidle I could see a scenario (25% chance) where the Jays sign him to a 1 year $2 million-ish contract.
Dave Till - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#13989) #
I remember reading JP say that in a perfect world Sturtze would be the Jays 5th starter

In a perfect world, Roy Halladay's quintuplet brothers, Elroy, Royston, Royland, and Booboo, would occupy the last four spots in the Jays' starting rotation. Sturtze would be, right now, earnestly explaining the importance of whole-life insurance.

And, the Yankees would finish the season 54-108.

More seriously: assuming the Jays have some money to spend on starting pitching, thanks to being out from under the Mondesi and Lidle obligations, who is out there to sign? I would assume that several fifth-starter types would be eager to climb aboard, as they can look at the Jays' current rotation and see opportunities for themselves. But, in a market where somebody like Escobar can probably command $18 million over three years, where can the Jays find somebody half-decent that they can afford?
robertdudek - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#13990) #
We'll have to see who is non-tendered by other clubs.
_Blue in SK - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#13991) #
If the O's don't pick up his option, what about Pat Hengten as a #4 or #5, assuming we can fit him into the budget. His second half numbers are solid although he doesn't have the velocity anymore.

Doc, Escobar (assuming he re-signs or another FA), FA#2 TBD, Hengten, one of numerous options at #5, including Hendrickson, Towers, Walker, Chulk, etc... .
_Scott - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#13992) #
I think Lidle is going to get the Loazia treatment. A 1yr $2 million offer for him is too optimistic, in my opinion. It will be interesting to see what he signs for--either way he has cost himself a lot of money this year.

I agree on the Hentgen signing, it seems to be a natural fit for all of the same reasons Bordick/Myers were good signings.

The wildcard in all of this of course is Orlando Hudson. His play--particularly his defense--has probably raised his value to the point where JP may get a club to bite (Kansas City). This would also open up a spot for Russ Adams.

Another option (and a long-shot at that) would be to move Hudson to third (his natural position), trade Delgado/money (to LA for Mota prspects?), move Hinske/Phelps to first, let Cat/Bordick/Berg play second until Adams is ready. This would improve the defense/pitching as well improve the budget to acquire other pitching at the expense of some offence.
_Lance - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#13993) #
Will we be watching Lidle re-find himself? Will he go the way of the Traschel, Loaiza, et. al. and look good once he leaves the Jays?

I am mixed. We were sold that Sturtze would be an "innings eater" at least. And that Lidle "would take the load off of Halladay." Does this mean that Jp is a lousy evaluator or a good PR guy? Time will tell, right now its way too early to lean either way.

I dont know what the rotation brings in April of 04, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see JP go out and spend 1 or 1.5 million on another Sturtze-type for next year, to buy time for Arnold and company.
_Pod - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#13994) #
There's absolutely zero chance of Lidle returning to the Jays. He will seek out a good fielding team that plays on grass and his ERA will plummet accordingly.

If you assume someone else pays more for Escobar's services, then I think you are left with Doc as your #1, Hendrickson at #4 and either Towers or Walker as your #5.

If you let Crash and Cat (and Escobar) walk then I believe that frees up $10M to cover 3 pitchers (2 starters and 1 reliever). So we are searching for a #2 and a #3 - just as we did last year. Last offseason we spent ~$6.5M for Lidle/Sturtze, this offseason we could have $8-9M for 2 starters (ie $1-2M for the RP).

Let's guess that $2-3M gets you a #3 of the Hentgen, Sele, Rogers ilk, which leaves you ~$6M for a #2...any thoughts?
Dave Till - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#13995) #
Hentgen might wind up going to the Tigers - he's from Detroit, and I believe he's said that he always wanted to play for them. But I think he'd be happy to play for Toronto too - and signing him would be a good PR move.
_Cristian - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#13996) #
Assuming the Jays payroll stays the same as this year, you have to consider that the Jays will be rid of Mondesi's contract. That's another 6M to play with.
_Ryan - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#13997) #
As I recall, the Blue Jays wrote off Mondesi's contract last year. It wasn't factored into this year's payroll.
_Jonny German - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#13998) #
Will we be watching Lidle re-find himself? Will he go the way of the Traschel, Loaiza, et. al. and look good once he leaves the Jays?

Yes, I think this is entirely possible, and there's not much that can be done about it. Just as Loaiza probably wouldn't have been as successful if he had stayed in Toronto, Lidle will be better off going elsewhere and putting a forgettable year behind him. What can you do? He's definitely a bigger disappointment than Sturtze, providing few quality innings, eating up a substantial chunk of the budget, and bringing back nothing in terms of a trade or draft picks.

That said, I don't think J.P. made a mistake in acquiring Lidle, but he's made a couple in regards to Sturtze. First, did anybody believe that Sturtze would be better in 2003 than Loaiza in 2003? How then did Sturtze get a guaranteed $1M from the Jays while Loaiza couldn't get a major league contract from anyone? I'm not saying the Jays should have tried to sign Loaiza, I'm saying they overpaid for Sturtze. And then they compounded things by keeping him around all season. His presence on the club for the last three months served no purpose, there was no upside to having him around. Witness the very brief tryouts given to Messrs. Davis, Acevedo, and Service. Why was Sturtze treated so differently?
_Spicol - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#13999) #
Obviously, things depend on who gets non-tendered. I doubt there will be many on the pitching side of things though, so the following is the most likely list of free agent options:

Scott Erickson, Pat Hentgen (club option), John Burkett, Derek Lowe (club option), Robert Person, Jeff Suppan (club option), Bartolo Colon, Esteban Loaiza (club option), Brian Anderson, Jason Bere, Steve Avery, Steve Sparks, Jose Lima, Rick Reed (club option), Kenny Rogers, Roger Clemens (retiring), Sterling Hitchcock (club option), Andy Pettitte, David Wells (club option), John Thomson, Kelvim Escobar, Cory Lidle, Miguel Batista (club option), Shane Reynolds (mutual option), Shawn Estes, Jimmy Haynes, Darren Oliver, Brian Moehler, Ron Villone, Wilson Alvarez, Andy Ashby (club option), Hideo Nomo (club option), Dave Burba, Todd Ritchie, Livan Hernandez (option triggered by IP, needs 3 more), Pedro Astacio, Terry Adams, Kevin Millwood, Jeff D'Amico, Chris Carpenter (club option), Cal Eldred, Jeff Fassero (club option), Sidney Ponson, Kirk Rueter.

How would JP likely categorize these guys?

Too expensive: Colon, Pettitte, Millwood, Ponson

Option will be picked up by Current Team: Lowe, Suppan, Loaiza, Batista, Nomo, Hernandez

Injury/Age Issues: Erickson, Burkett, Person, Wells, Moehler, Ritchie, Astacio

Will be no better than Thurman or Chulk in 2004: Bere, Avery, Sparks, Lima, Reynolds, Estes, Haynes, Oliver, Burba, Carpenter, Fassero

Who's Left: PHentgen (might have his option picked up), BAnderson, RReed (will be 38 in April, 2004), KRogers (will be 39), SHitchcock (some injury concern), JThomson, KEscobar, CLidle, RVillone, WAlvarez, AAshby (also some injury concern), TAdams, JD'Amico, CEldred, KRueter

Discuss.
_Rusty Priske - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#14000) #
If I had to pick two from the "Who's Left List" that could be affordable and useful, I would go with, hmmmm... Thomson and Adams. Or maybe Ashby.

This assumes that we won't get Esco back.
_Spicol - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#14001) #
There's absolutely zero chance of Lidle returning to the Jays.

I more or less agree. The way I understand it is that in order to be able to sign Lidle before May 30th of next year, they have to offer him arbitration. And if he's offered arb, he'll likely take it. Has anyone in recent years had his salary cut through arbitration? I can't think of anyone. Even if the Jays did offer a figure lower than his current salary and somehow manage to win, the lowest amount they could pay him is $3.84MM.

He is an option, but an expensive one.
_Scott - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#14002) #
What about trying to pry Joe Kennedy away from the D-Rays? He seems to have fallen down the depth chart a little bit (you could throw in Brazelton and make it a total reclamation project). I seem to recall some speculation last December that JP was willing to trade Lopez for him but Tampa didn't bite. If nothing else, we would not have to face him anymore which could help our record against Tampa next year.
Mike Green - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#14003) #
Spicol, Thanks for the helpful list. From the "who's left" section, I like Escobar, Thomson and Wilson Alvarez, who in Toronto with this defence all have a reasonable shot at having an ERA in the mid 4s.
The rest are a poor fit- for example, I consider Kirk Rueter in TO as Mark Hendrickson without the upside.

I don't think it's clear what the budget is, and whether one or two starters will be pursued. If only one starter is pursued, and depending on other contract decisions, the "too expensive list" names may be in play.
robertdudek - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#14004) #
On Lidle...

100/55 is still a decent K/W. He's given up tons of hits on bip and I think that's 80% a function of his defence and bad luck. He'll bounce back, but perhaps not here.
_Jordan - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#14005) #
I quite liked John Thomson as a possible acquisition last winter. The Jays probably did too, but he chose to sign closer to home with the Rangers. Here's his line this season:

12-13, 4.96, 32 GS, 198 IP, 210 H, 43 BB, 123 K, 25 HR

A few notes on that. His ERA is almost dead-on to his lifetime mark of 4.95, but he's spent most of his career in hitters' paradises (Coors and now Arlington). His brief time with the Mets in 2002, where he didn't pitch terribly well, produced a 4.31 ERA.

Thomson isn't the severe groundballer that Roy Halladay is, but he still has a lifetime 1.24 GB/FB rate. I'm leery of flyball pitchers at Skydome, and so another guy who induces grounders would be very nice. (Mind you, Cory Lidle's career rate is 1.81, so that ain't the be-all).

Thomson also controls the strike zone pretty well: a career 248/544 BB/K rate in 863 IP. He gives up about 25 HRs every 200 IP, but those numbers aren't park-adjusted. And adjust them we should: the Ballpark at Arlington is a nasty place for pitchers. Here, thanks to Michael Wolverton at Baseball Prospectus, is a list of the highest park-effect percentages this year:

1. Colorado 36.6%
2. Kansas City 29.3%
3. Arizona 17.8%
4. Texas 13.9%
5. Pittsburgh 10.3%

8. Toronto 7.6%

Accordingly, Thomson's home/away splits aren't very surprising:

Home
5-6, 5.34, 15 GS, 87 IP, 103 H, 14 BB, 54 K, .293 BA against
Away
7-7, 4.65, 17 GS, 110 IP, 107 H, 29 BB, 69 K, .256 BA against

All of this to say that Thomson, who signed for $1.6M this past winter and can probably expect about the same this time around, could be a fine and affordable addition to the Jays' rotation in 2004, assuming the Rangers don't re-sign him first. Two hundred innings and a 4.75 ERA would be pretty darn good.
_Spicol - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#14006) #
Two hundred innings and a 4.75 ERA would be pretty darn good.

December 22, 2002: "(He) is a quality addition for us," general manager J.P. Ricciardi said. "He is a strong, dependable pitcher who has proven he can deliver 200 innings in a season."

Sorry, Jordan. Your post made me flash back to the Tanyon Sturtze signing. Really though, Thomson wouldn't be that bad. He has far better control than Tanyon ever did.
Gitz - Monday, September 15 2003 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#14007) #
I like Thomson, too, and I wonder how much Brian Anderson would cost. He's not an ace or an ace-in-waiting, obviously, but he could be a decent innings eater out of the number 4 or 5 spot.

For as much as I'd like to see Toronto add Millwood or Colon, it's not going to happen, and Spicol quite accurately has them in the "too expensive" pile. I wonder if J.P. and Co. will make a run at Foulke to settle the bullpen issue; it's not likely Keith will return to the A's, and while I hate to see $6 million spent on a closer, it's not hollow money thrown around.

But that's wishful thinking: $6 million is really too much to spend on a relief pitcher, but it would sure be nice to have that "guarantee" down there.
_Dr B - Tuesday, September 16 2003 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#14008) #
Foulke has apparently had his eye on being a starter. Can't remember where I got that from, Gammons or Stark probably, so take it with a grain of salt.
_Dr B - Tuesday, September 16 2003 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#14009) #
Foulke has apparently had his eye on being a starter. Can't remember where I got that from, Gammons or Stark probably, so take it with a grain of salt.
Gitz - Tuesday, September 16 2003 @ 01:27 AM EDT (#14010) #
Foulke has been itching to start for a few years now; why the Sox traded him for Koch instead of making Foulke a starter -- let alone swapping the superior pitcher -- remains a puzzlement to me. But Jerry Manuel had lost confidence in him, period, so Keith needed a new start no matter what.

So what would Foulke command as a starter? It seems to me he'd be giving away literally millions of dollars if his agent pimped him as a potential starter rather than as an elite closer. This year his stats are as good as last year, but he'll have "45" next to saves this time around.
_Craig Bugden - Tuesday, September 16 2003 @ 06:25 AM EDT (#14011) #
In general I'm excited about the way JP is turning the organization around but the Sturtze signing is an example of how even a Beane-ie Baby can let his bias creep into his thinking. Look at the signings since he took over including the minors and see how many players are from New England (Sturtze)or are former Athletics draft picks ( Mike Bordick). Reminds me of the thankfully brief Dave Stewart tenure when we were making bad deals with San Diego (Joey Hamilton).
Pistol - Tuesday, September 16 2003 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#14012) #
The way I understand it is that in order to be able to sign Lidle before May 30th of next year, they have to offer him arbitration.

Not unless they sign him before you have to offer arbitration. That's not going to happen thought.

I didn't think that through originally. I was thinking the Jays could non-tender him and then re-sign him, but he's unrestricted.

Discuss

Not much out there for starters. The Jays will probably need to make a trade to improve.
_george c wallac - Tuesday, September 16 2003 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#14013) #
Warning, if its time to trade Hudson because of his defensive wows and make Adams your 2nd baseman next yr, you might want to reconsider at least for another yr. Adams between stops at Dunedin and New Haven. Albeit at ss, Adams made 35 errors and close to 40 if you count his playoff errors in 130 games, ( major league pace would be close to 50). Yes we know its a position chnage to 2nd base, but not every ss makes the position change smoothly and he has to get used to something called astroturf which gives a few of our players troubles at this point. He makes quite a few of these errors by throwing and if someone thinks he's going to play ss at skydome, well think again because you have to play quite a bit deeper than a regular grass field!! Also raising eyebrows at this point, is that your starting to hear whispers, especially from scouts who've seen Aaron Hill in pro ball thus far are starting to say the thickness of his body may force him to another position, which is somewhat cause for alarm, because you can only play one person at 2b and one at 3b. Hill has shown better fielding potential at ss vs Adams having made 16 errors in 62 games between Auburn and Dunedin.
Craig B - Tuesday, September 16 2003 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#14014) #
The Jays will probably need to make a trade to improve.

I would lean this way too. That's how we got Lidle, and that's how the team is most likely to pick up a starter this time as well.

I like the idea of signing Thomson.

What is the contract status of Orlando Hernandez? I understand he's finishing a deal and is on the verge of being able to come back... which means he should be ready for next spring. He thinks he could have pitched before the end of the year - the Expos docs thought otherwise.

I don't know if he would cost a pick (he's no good if he would) but I don't think he would cost one and he's a very viable one-year option if there's any chance in the world he may be healthy.

If his back is better, the guy I would want to sign as the next Tanyon Sturtze is Jimmy Haynes.

Terry Adams is a good pitcher, but with legal troubles hanging over him I'd be leery of signing him.
_Spicol - Tuesday, September 16 2003 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#14015) #
What is the contract status of Orlando Hernandez?

Since 1998 was a partial year for him, he's had just less than 6 years of service.

Terry Adams is a good pitcher, but with legal troubles hanging over him I'd be leery of signing him.

I put him on the list of starters since he is an option but I'm not convinced that he really should be starting regularly. He's Pete Walker but (monster truck announcing voice) TO THE EXTREME...meaning he'd make a good swing man.
Craig B - Tuesday, September 16 2003 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#14016) #
George, I have no idea where you're getting your information from. Interesting comments.

if its time to trade Hudson because of his defensive wows and make Adams your 2nd baseman next yr, you might want to reconsider at least for another yr.

I agree with this. Hudson deserves another shot, especially because he may yet blossom.

Albeit at ss, Adams made 35 errors and close to 40 if you count his playoff errors in 130 games, ( major league pace would be close to 50). Yes we know its a position chnage to 2nd base, but not every ss makes the position change smoothly and he has to get used to something called astroturf which gives a few of our players troubles at this point.

It gives Hinske trouble at third, that's true, but the true hops of turf actually make it a bit easier to prevent errors... especially because the ball gets there faster, meaning less hurried throws.

It might not be a smooth transition, true. Adams made 16 errors in 64 games at AA... but Hector Luna, who has a very good defensive reputation, made 35 errors in 126 games there, a higher pace.

Also raising eyebrows at this point, is that your starting to hear whispers, especially from scouts who've seen Aaron Hill in pro ball thus far are starting to say the thickness of his body may force him to another position

I haven't seen anything like your assertions. The only suggestions I've even seen that Hill play somewhere else than short were suggestions by himself and Ricciardi that if he and Adams were to play together in the minors, Hill might move to second.

Jim Callis of Baseball America thinks Hill is a better defensive SS than Adams.

Hill played third base, of course, with Team USA last summer and was not too good there. He'd surely improve with regular work, but I'd rather see him at second than third.

Bob Elliott, right after the draft, made unattributed comments that "some scouts" wondered whether he would be moved to second base. This happens with almost every shortstop, of course... but it wasn't after his pro season, and it was Bob Elliott.
_Rusty Priske - Tuesday, September 16 2003 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#14017) #
Believe it or not, O-Dog is leading all AL second baggers in defensive Win Shares. Groundball pitchers can inflate those numbers but...wow. I was surprised.
_george c wallac - Tuesday, September 16 2003 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#14018) #
Craig B

Yes those are interesting observations aren't they. Just copy those and bring them out of the freezer a couple of yrs from now and I think you will see what was said!!

Food for thought!!

Not too long ago JP gave a retort in the paper that the LA Dodgers never offered Eric Gagne in a deal, well seems to be in Peter Gammons most recent article titled , Mystery Men , Pens aren't easy to build, will challenge his statement. In the article in ESPN it states that the Blue Jays turned down the orginal offer of Erig Gagne from the Dodgers, the Blue Jays reortedly had the option of Luke Prokopec or Gagne!!

ps: win shares, smin shares who cares, just catch the ball and make the play, whoever we put out there!!
Craig B - Tuesday, September 16 2003 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#14019) #
Would you stick to a consistent handle at least? I'm tired of this Al Gore, George Wallace, Strom Thurmond crap.
_Davey Crockett - Wednesday, September 17 2003 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#14020) #
Ok Craig B, whatever your wishes!
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