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...for the Blue Jays' last remaining minor-league playoff team, the New Haven Ravens. Dustin McGowan was rocked for 6 runs (though only 3 were earned) in 4 innings (6 H, 4 BB, 3 Ks), and Sandy Nin followed by digging the hole a little deeper: in 2 innings, he allowed 3 runs (though only 1 was earned -- the defence made three costly errors last night) on 3 hits, but walked no one and struck out 4. These young pitchers' late-season difficulties should come as no surprise: it's the end of a long year that started for both of them back in A-Ball. No one's star is shining less brightly today as a result.

New Haven's big bats made a game of it, though, scoring 7 unanswered runs from the 6th inning onwards, but it wasn't enough. The resurgent Dominic Rich and Anthony Sanders each had 3 hits, while Russ Adams chipped in with 2 hits and 2 RBI. Even the amazing (I think that's a fair description) Guillermo Quiroz doubed and drove in a run. Some better defence and the Ravens might have tied this series up; as it is, they're down 2-0 and staring at elimination. David Bush is now all that stands between New Haven and the off-season.

It's rather sad, if you visit the Ravens' home page, to see the fire sale taking place there. As you know, the franchise is moving to Manchester next season, and no club is coming in to replace the Blue Jays' AA affiliate, so the Ravens, a longstanding Eastern League member, are this close to extinction. The fire sale includes everything -- desks, computers, concession equipment, the kitchen sink presumably. "Cash and Carry" is not a phrase you like to see associated with your favourite team. I feel badly for New Havenites; at the very least, though, they got an exciting send-off from their Ravens in 2003.

Dunedin, as you may have heard, got blasted out of the playoffs 10-0 by the St. Lucie Mets. Vince Perkins, who's wrapping up a 120+inning season, got beaten up again as he did earlier in the playoffs, but this is just fatigue combined with a pitcher who still doesn't have proper command of his outstanding stuff. He'll probably start next season at Dunedin again, though I wouldn't be surprised to see him spend some time in the pen. No shame on the D-Jays' batters; they ran into fireballing Mets' prospect Scott Kazmir last night. Altogether, these were two very good seasons for the Jays' mid-level farm teams; combined with an outstanding season at Auburn, the organization has every reason to feel confident about and proud of its farm system.

A few other notes. For those who were stumping hard for that supposed Shannon Stewart-Jesse Foppert deal earlier this year, be advised that Foppert is going under the knife. The Tommy John surgery he's scheduled to undergo explains his lost velocity, but will also likely wipe out his 2004 season and cast a shadow over his future. Of course, there's no way you can predict that kind of injury, just as there's no way Luke Prokopec's injury could have been foretold. When it comes right down to it, pitchers' health is really a roll of the dice, and you never know when the losing throw will come. And consider the Giants: of their Big Three pitching prospects, Foppert is undergoing surgery, Kurt Ainsworth is in Baltimore, and only Jerome Williams remains in the fold. Jays' fans who mutter about the disappointment of the Halladay-Escobar-Carpenter trio should be glad they have two good arms still around years after their debut, one of them an ace. The odds of a Smoltz-Glavine-Maddux or a Hudson-Mulder-Zito troika remaining healthy, effective and in one uniform for more than a couple of years are staggeringly low.

Finally, the Blue Jays' top prospect, Alexis Rios, is one of the ten finalists for the Baseball America Minor-League Player of the Year. Despite his terrific season, though, Lexi is in tough against some tremendous competition, including Padres 2B prospect Josh (Son of Jesse) Barfield, Miguel-Tejada-heir-apparent Bobby Crosby of the A's, and the White Sox' .400-hitting outfield prospect Jeremy Reed. Keep your fingers crossed; the award will be handed out tomorrow.

The End is Near | 21 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Best_Mate - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#92236) #
This isn't the best place to post this - but it is semi related, so I'll carry on

You are in an auction keeper league (keep as many as you want, providing you don't exceed salary cap). You are allowed 5 spots for minor leaguers, who currently comprise the following:

Jason Lane
Gabe Gross
Zach Greinke
Brandon Larson
Joe Thurston

The time is now for changing this line up for next year. I want to keep Lane, Gross and Greinke (unless someone can persuade me otherwise) and then I'd welcome suggestions for the two remaining spots.

Thanks for any input
_Jacko - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#92237) #
If available, I'm a big fan of:

Casey Kotchman (ANA)
Dallas McPherson (ANA)
Alexis Rios (TOR)
David Bush (TOR)
Grady Sizemore (CLE)
Joe Blanton (OAK)

Of the 2003 draft class, the following are worth looking into:

Michael Aubrey (CLE)
Omar Quintanilla (OAK)

If you feel like taking a flyer, Francisco Rosario is supposed to be ahead of schedule in his TJ recovery, and should be back pitching fulltime in Dunedin in the spring.
_whizland2000 - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#92238) #
I know its to early to tell, but how do you think these minor leaguers will perform numbers wise if or when they reach their full potential in the major leagues.

AV HR RBI Slugging % On-base %
Alexis Rios
Gabe Gross
Russ Adams
John-ford Griffin
Aaron Hill
Guillermo Quiroz

ERA Estimated # of wins Strikeouts
Dustin McGowan
David Bush
Jason Arnold
Francisco Rosario
Brandon League
Josh Banks
Mike Green - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#92239) #
I'd be surprised if you find anyone here who would project a pitcher based on 15 double A starts, let alone one short-season A season. There just isn't enough correlation between minor league performance of a pitcher and subsequent major league performance.

As for the hitters, there is some correlation (except for RBIs which are essentially situation-dependent) and I'll give it a shot for what it's worth:

Rios (his peak will likely be at least 5 years off)- .310, 30 homers, .380 OBP, .540 slug.

Quiroz- .275, 30 homers, .350 OBP, .500 slug

Gabe Gross- .280, 20 homers, .400 OBP, .480 slug

Russ Adams- .265, 5 homers, .330 OBP, .380 slug

JF Griffin- no regular job, left handed platoon partner for a year or two maybe- .270, 10 homers, .335 OBP, .430 slug

Let's see what Aaron Hill does next year before giving him a go.
Mike D - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#92240) #
Jeremy Reed was an on-base machine at A-ball (333/431/477), so he got promoted to AA...where things got much easier (409/474/591). In 131 combined games, he racked up 35 doubles, 11 home runs, 45 steals, 70 walks, 36 strikeouts and a .373 average.

Yowza.
_Spicol - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#92241) #
Despite his terrific season, though, Lexi is in tough against some tremendous competition,

The competition is not as strong as at first glance. Out of the 10, the only players to spend the entire season at AA or above are Rios, Bobby Crosby or Travis Blackley. The good people at BA might take that into consideration.

That said, compared to the field, Reed has been too good to ignore despite starting in A-Ball, just like Baldelli last year and Josh Beckett the year before. I think he makes it a 4-man race with the 3 mentioned above.
Craig B - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#92242) #
I'd be surprised if you find anyone here who would project a pitcher based on 15 double A starts, let alone one short-season A season.

I would if they were bad enough. Or good enough. It wouldn't tell me a lot, but it would tell me something very valuable. So it would be a distinct aid in projection... but no, wyou can't project a guy off that, it's too slender a base unless you were watching 10-12 of those starts (that would give you some idea)

But when Rich Harden, for example, throws 13 perfect innings in the Texas League with 17 Ks, I know he's a prospect. No one can do that (39 up, 39 down) against AA hitting without being of major league calibre. That's just two starts.

Or someone like Rafael Betancourt of Akron. Only 45 AA innings, but the 75 strikeouts, the 0 HR, the 1.39 ERA and the 6:1 K/W ratio tell me that he can pitch in the majors. No doubt about it.

Likewise, if someone can do what Youkilis did in AA, a .487 OBP over a season, I know he can hit in the majors. I don't know that he can hit enough to hold down a third-base job with an indifferent glove, but I know already that he can hold his own with the bat.

Now short-season A ball is much harder, being so much further from the majors. But a very good season there tells me that a guy is definitely to be taken seriously and tried out at a higher level. Nothing more, though. A guy who dominates a league like that is a good flyer to take in a keeper draft, particularly if he also has a good tools rep.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#92243) #
Craig B, I agree. Yes, you can take a pitcher, like Rich Harden at the start of this season (remember that he had pitched double A last year) and say he's got what it takes to be a major league pitcher. Projecting his major league ERA and strikeouts,however, now that is a stretch.

Josh Banks is another story. He might be Roger Clemens or he might be Roger Salkeld (who was once heralded as the next Clemens). My best guess is that he's somewhere in between, but that isn't too much of a help.
robertdudek - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#92244) #
Every pitching prospect could be Salkeld. Pitchers, even very good ones, get injured a lot.
Pistol - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#92245) #
Not sure if anyone caught it, but Alexis Rios is one of 10 finalists for Baseball America's minor league player of the year.

And somewhat Blue Jay related, Josh Barfield, son of Jesse and Prince Fielder, son of Cecil, are both among the 10 finalists.
Mike Green - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#92246) #
Mentioning Jesse Barfield and Cecil Fielder in the same sentence just brings back bad memories. 1987 final game of the season, down by a run, nobody on base, two outs in the top of the ninth, Jimy Williams looks down the bench for a pinch-hitter and passes over Cecil Fielder for Garth Iorg! I don't think I've ever been angrier at an inaminate object (my TV set). I guess it took Cecil a trip to Japan to get over it.
Pistol - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#92247) #
Well, Joe Mauer won the BA minor league player of the year.

Quiroz (who wasn't even nominated) stacks up pretty well to Mauer, and you could probably argue that Quiroz is the superior player, putting up a higher EqA (.245 vs .240) while playing the entire year in AA (Mauer's EqA is on half a season at AA).

And I don't see Mauer playing with a collasped lung!
_Spicol - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#92248) #
I suppose Mauer is an ok choice. I wouldn't have voted for him but it's not robbery. As they say, the award goes to the best prospect who had the best season.
Craig B - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#92249) #
Mauer, of course, is 17 months younger than Quiroz, so he is by far the better prospect. But Quiroz did have an outstanding season, and performance-wise did nearly as well as Mauer.

Mauer, as the ultimate "tools" and "projection" player, is a BA darling. And he did hit .335 in the insanely-tough Florida State League as well as .341 at New Britain. Gaudy numbers for a guy young for his leagues.

His press, tools, and numbers remind me indelibly of Jason Kendall and Craig Biggio, maybe with a little more defense. But while Biggio and Kendall were built more like traditional catchers, Mauer is built like Lance Parrish.

If I had to project Mauer, I'd say to expect him to become Jason Kendall... high praise indeed.
robertdudek - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#92250) #
Craig,

I think the Jason Kendall comp is pretty good. Let's remember that Biggio was drafted out of college, went from the draft to A ball for half a season. The next year he dominated AAA for half a season before reaching the bigs. That's as impressive a minor league career as Barry Bonds had!
_Jordan - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#92251) #
Anyone remember why the Astros switched Biggio to second base? I trust it wasn't because Alan Ashby was hanging around.

Here's Barry Bonds' brief minor-league career, over two seasons:

115 G, 402 AB, .303/.428/.540, 79 R, 23 2B, 6 3B, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 31 SB, 70 BB, 83 K

This includes his 1986 stint at AAA Hawaii. Possibly the only thing dumber than putting your top minor-league franchise thousands of miles into the Pacific Ocean is putting it there when you're located in Pittsburgh. Did the Pirates get frequent-flyer points back then or something?
Pistol - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#92252) #
Mauer, of course, is 17 months younger than Quiroz, so he is by far the better prospect

Well, I knew it was between a year and 2 years. I never know where to look for minor league ages.

How much of a difference does a year and a half make? I know the younger the better, but does 17 months make someone 'far better' when they're both less than 22 and in AA and generally putting up similar numbers (Quiroz with more power, Mauer with more OBP)? I haven't been following the minors long enough to really know, but it doesn't seem like there should be considerable difference.
Craig B - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#92253) #
Biggio got switched to second base because the Astros were concerned about his long-term health (he's not a wide-body guy; there a pretty distinct prejudice against thin catchers), eager to keep his bat in the lineup as much as possible, and he was perceived as suffering from indifferent defense behind the plate anyway.

The defense rap is a bit unfair; Biggio mostly suffered from an understrength arm. He didn't make a lot of errors, was good at blocking pitches, and got his share of assists. He was a bit below average for a starting catcher overall according to my numbers.
Gerry - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#92254) #
How much of a difference does a year and a half make?

One year is a big difference so 17 months is certainly significant. If you read the blurb on BA they do say pedigree is important to them (and no they don't apologise for it). Mauer as the #1 overall pick has that pedigree that puts him over Reed and Greinke, and Quiroz.
Mike Green - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#92255) #
Actually, when Bill James back in the 80s studied age of arrival at the majors and career performance, he explicitly made mention of the fact that while age of arrival of a position player was tremendously important in predicting future performance generally, this did not apply to the same degree for catchers.

James' theory on this, as I recall it, runs like this. Catchers are injured so much, and there does seem to be a much lower maximum number of games that a catcher can realistically catch in the majors (for probably 50 years, that maximum was held by Al Lopez with about 1900, since surpassed I believe by Carlton Fisk or Bob Boone). For these reasons, the general rule that starting earlier gives a prospect a longer and higher upward progression until age 27 and consequently a much longer downward progression after age 27 applies with much less force to catchers.

There is a modern twist to this argument that arises from age of entry and arbitration eligibility. For the sake of argument, let's assume Mauer and Quiroz both enter the big leagues in 2005. Mauer will have just turned 22; Quiroz would be 23 and 1/2. Clubs get their biggest bang for the buck during the first 3 years of a players major league career. Mauer from age 22-25 is not likely to be much better (if any) than Quiroz from 23 and 1/2 to 26 and 1/2. Mauer's big advantage, assuming he can stay healthy, would be later in their careers when both will be priced out of Minnesota's and Toronto's league anyway.

Finally, Quiroz is even better than his superficial offensive stats. New Haven is a good park for a left-handed hitter, but rough on a right-handed hitter. Both Quiroz and Rios hit much better on the road than at home.
Mike Green - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#92256) #
The end is very near. David Bush and Cam Reimers were stung by the long ball, and Akron leads 11-4 late in the game.
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