Is there anybody else concerned about Perkins and League late performances? Too many innings? God forbid, something more serious?

Enjoying New Haven good performances. Who pitches for the Ravens tonite?

Jabonso, I'm not that concerned about either one. Perkins hasn't really had his command all season, but he finished a little better for Dunedin than he started. This is his first year out of short-season ball (he spent his first two years at Auburn) and he's never pitched this many innings before, but 84 isn't anything to be worried about. He may be tired, but more likely he's still just inconsistent.

As for League, he's still very young -- just 20 years old, competing against guys in their early 20s. He's far less polished than many of his teammates, having been drafted out of high school just two years ago. His season numbers don't look impressive at first glance, particularly the K's, but just holding his own against tougher competition is an excellent sign. His fastball is consistently in the mid-90s, but it doesn't move a whole lot. Once it does -- and that should come with age and experience -- he'll break out.

Dustin McGowan goes tonight. Dan Jackson and Justin Singleton were activated by the Ravens; Diego Markwell and Peter Bauer were de-activated.

It's hard to figure why Bauer would have been named to the Arizona Fall League team at the same time as being de-activated for the playoffs. Perhaps he's one of the potential PTBNL's in the Stewart-Kielty trade, and the agreement is that he would be sent to the AFL to help the Twins decide.

Big Vito's triple crown was great, but they probably should have promoted him to Charleston or Dunedin when it was clear he could handle short-season pitching. He's actually 5 months older than Alexis Rios, who was a star three levels above him. The Jays don't exactly have studs at 1B in the FSL and Sally league.

He's around the same age as Jason Perry, who had a gigantic season for Medicine Hat in 2002. He struggled, and was eventually packaged off to Oakland as the PTBNL in the JFG deal.

On the other hand, he came straight out of college to post these numbers -- many college guys have trouble making the adjustment from aluminum to wood.

I don't think League has arm problems -- he was reportedly topping out at 102 MPH late in the season.

jc

He's around the same age as Jason Perry, who had a gigantic season for Medicine Hat in 2002. He struggled, and was eventually packaged off to Oakland as the PTBNL in the JFG deal. On the other hand, he came straight out of college to post these numbers -- many college guys have trouble making the adjustment from aluminum to wood.

Another difference is that Perry's numbers were posted in Medicine Hat -- the equivalent of Pulaski -- while Vito did his damage at short-season A Ball, a definite step higher, in twice as many at-bats. I think Chiaravalotti's performance was more impressive than Perry's was, and he should do better at Dunedin next season (I doubt Vito will see Charleston; my sense is that the brightest prospects go straight from short-season ball to Dunedin, while the younger or intermediate guys go to Charleston. Adams, Hill, Bush and Gross, for instance, bypassed the Sally League altogether).

I'm not opposed to a guy who was a 15th round draft pick being kept in Auburn and putting up monster numbers versus getting around 100 AB's in single A. At the very least he is now a bright shiny object for the winter. Perry clearly had some value after last summer with his monster numbers. It's possible that if Vito had struggled in 100 AB's in single A some of the lustre may have gone from him. If he could have had 300 AB's in A ball I might have a different view. I'm not saying that they could or should be looking to move him in the offseason, I just think this way his value is as high as it could be after such a short time and it hasn't significantly hurt his developmental time frame.

Another difference is that Perry's numbers were posted in Medicine Hat -- the equivalent of Pulaski -- while Vito did his damage at short-season A Ball, a definite step higher, in twice as many at-bats.


True, but Perry was also a year younger when he posted his numbers.

Vito DOB: 10/26/80
Perry DOB: 08/18/80

I wonder if he would have posted Vito-like numbers in 2003, given the chance to play in short-season ball?


I think Chiaravalotti's performance was more impressive than Perry's was, and he should do better at Dunedin next season (I doubt Vito will see Charleston; my sense is that the brightest prospects go straight from short-season ball to Dunedin, while the younger or intermediate guys go to Charleston. Adams, Hill, Bush and Gross, for instance, bypassed the Sally League altogether).


I'm not that convinced Vito is any better than Perry (who could still turn out to be a decent hitter as well). Actually, Perry's numbers after the trade were decent:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/cgi-bin/statsfindplayer.pl?player=perry,%20ja

re: bypassing sally league

Yeah, I've noticed that. The Sally league seems to be a place you go when you've got some MLB experience, but are still pretty young (i.e. latin american signings, high school picks, etc.)

Clearly there were many people on Auburn who appeared advanced for the league. There will be a number of names to watch in Dunedin next year and it will be interesting to see who is able to follow David Bush's example and make it to AA a year after being drafted. That would put them in good stead to make a major league appearance in 2005.

Vito is about a month and a half away from turning 23 so he's a guy who has to show that he can do well at high-A and AA to put to rest concerns about whether he can handle good breaking stuff.

To complete the Perry vs. Vito comparison, you have to take into account the league context more fully. The Pioneer League is a hitter's league. The top 5 individual slugging percentages this year are over .560; the top 5 individual OBP are over .430. Three of the nine teams have batting averages over .290. The league best team ERA is 3.27; three of the nine teams have ERAs over 5.

The NYP League is a pitcher's league. Only Vito and Carlo Cota have slugging percentages over .500. The team high in BA is Auburn's .283; the second best team batting average is .267. Twelve of the fourteen teams have ERAs 3.75 or less, with three teams under 3.00.

Vito's season is more impressive than Jason's, leaving aside the important question of age. My take on Vito is that if he hits well in the first 3 months at Dunedin next year, say .300/.380/.500, he will be promoted to New Haven by mid-season, where he could establish himself as a bona-fide prospect. Otherwise, he will be too old for his developmental level the following season to have a fair shot.

Big Vito's triple crown was great, but they probably should have promoted him to Charleston or Dunedin when it was clear he could handle short-season pitching.

Perhaps the Jays braintrust left him there to help build some confidence and try to win the league.

Hijack alert:

Baseball Prospectus Pizza feed in Toronto:

One quick correction: I said yesterday that the Toronto Feed will take place on the 26th of September. That’s a day early--it will be on Saturday, the 27th. To RSVP, contact darryl.j.rose@ca.eyi.com. Location and reasonable cost to be determined.

Chiaravalotti's major-league EqA in '03 was .242; the next-best in the NY-Penn League was Cota's .215. To compare, two levels higher in the Eastern League, John-Ford Griffin's ML_EqA was .231.

And here's a collegiate comparison:

Jason
2001 Georgia Tech (21)
- 86 AB, .291/.419/.477, 14/28
2002 Georgia Tech (22)
- 237 AB, .325/.413/.557, 28/52

Vito
2001 U Richmond (20)
- 192 AB, .328/.459/.672, 43/37
2002 U Richmond (21)
- 238 AB, .357/.465/.727, 50/50
2003 U Richmond (22)
- 229 AB, .306/.398/.528, 34/37 (played hurt)

I'll take Vito.

What is the big deal with age ?

Lets say vito gets here a year later -- he will be 26 instead of 25. I just don't see the big deal since he will anyway be here for 6 years which is the prime of his career. I can understand the greater injury risk with a pitcher who is older ... but a hitter ???

For the blue jays, old age is meaningless since they don't have the resources to sign their high profile players, so there is no question about legacy, years in mlb, and all that stuff. This way, you are getting a more mature player for a longer period of time.

Thank you Jordan for your input. The BJ drafting crew have been working really hard to find gold. Don Vito will have a fine season in Dunedin and Manchester (already?)

Age is just an important variable when you are projecting the career of a prospect, not related to his age when he will arrive, just to compare what has been accomplished and when ( in a young players developmental curve ). It is something we (BJ's fans) will be very familiar with, with so many collegians in our farm, trying to have a good read on eye catching performances.

Actually, age is huge indicator of future success when evaluating hitters.

The earlier you hit the show, the longer your career. Also, hitters tend to improve until the age of 27-28. The sooner you get to the show and start figuring out MLB pitching, the better.

Guys that don't hit the majors until 26-27 tend not to turn into stars, though there are exceptions (see Giles, Brian). You're more likely to turn into a solid regular (see Koskie, Cory) than a superstar. And unfortunately, you need superstars to win championships. Solid regulars, especially at 1B, are easy to find floating around in the high minors (see Pond, Simon).

re: EQA comparison

Minor quibble -- AA is 3 levels above short-season A-ball, not 2.

I agree that the Pioneer league is a hitters paradise, and Perry took full advantage. If things break Vito's way, he'll finish 2004 at AA, and maybe get a cup of coffee (though the Jays tend to not do this with their AA players).

BTW, that was a pretty shrewd move by the Jays grabbing Vito with a low pick afer his injury plagued 2003 college season.

Alexis Rios just did it again. A homer in the sixth gave Dustin McGowan a 2-1 lead to work with. Good habits are hard to break.

New Britain scored 1 in the 8th. Now tied 4-4 in the 10th.

Dunedin win 4-2. On to the final. Whoo hoo! Fort Myers had only 6 hits I think. I assume League pitched well, the truth TBD.

New Britain scored 2 in the top of the tenth, and probably felt good. But New Haven scored two in the bottom of the inning to tie. On to 11.

Where are you guys getting the updates for the minor league playoffs?

Never mind. I should do my own research. ESPN has a minor league scoreboard.

Bummer. The Ravens lost 8-4 in the 12th, so now they must win two of three on the road.

Neomar Flores starts for Dunedin tonight as they begin the finals against the St. Lucie Mets. First two are away games, next three (if necessary) will be at home.

If I'm not mistaken I believe the Ravens series goes 2-2-1. It's not until the finals that you get a 2-3 series.

Here is an interesting account of last nights New Haven game. It sounds like Dominic Rich pulled a Jeremy Giambi in the eleventh. Adams errors, which were discussed in Da Box earlier this week, were a big part of the game.


WEST HAVEN — In a matchup of the top two hitting clubs in the league, it came down to pitching and defense. And in the most crucial moments of the game, the defense for both teams was dreadful.

Two improbable errors, one by New Haven shortstop Russ Adams and one by New Britain catcher Joe Mauer, allowed the opposition two runs each in the 10th inning to prolong Thursday’s Eastern League Northern Division Series contest.

The Rock Cats, who threw out the potential winning run at the plate to end the 11th, scored four in the 12th to pull out the ugly 8-4 victory before 4,431 at Yale Field. The game lasted 4 hours and 17 minutes.

The best-of-5 series, now tied at 1, shifts to New Britain for two games starting tonight at 6:35.

"Was it championship caliber baseball? No," New Britain manager Stan Cliburn said. "I feel for their guys and our guys playing under those conditions. There was fog, the field was dewy and wet because of the rain. To play under those kind of conditions, those kinds of plays are going to happen."

With the outcome hanging in the balance in the 10th, neither club kept its composure.

With the score tied at 2, New Britain started the 10th with a single and a walk. The runners moved up a base on Jason Bartlett’s sacrifice.

Reliever John Ogiltree retired pinch hitter Brian Baron on a liner to third base for the second out, then intentionally walked Mauer to load the bases and set up a force out at any base.

Ogiltree did his job, getting Jeff Deardorff to hit a grounder to short. But Adams, whose error in the eighth allowed New Britain to tie the game at 2, failed to field the ball cleanly, then made a wild underhanded toss to second that got past Dominic Rich and allowed two runs to score.

Yet the Ravens tied it with two outs in the bottom of the inning on a throwing error by Mauer, who is considered one of the top catching prospects in the minors.

A one-out throwing error by Rock Cats reliever Brent Hoard helped keep the inning alive. He threw wild to second on a comebacker by Adams to put runners on the corners. With two outs, reliever Beau Kemp walked Alexis Rios to load the bases.

Kemp got Shawn Fagan to hit a dribbler in front of the plate. Mauer fielded the ball cleanly, but short-armed his throw over the head of his first baseman and into right field, allowing two runs to score.

The Ravens nearly won it in the 11th when Adams, with runners at first and second, singled off the glove of the first baseman. With the ball sitting on the edge of the outfield grass, Rich was waved home. Second baseman Seth Davidson grabbed the ball and fired home, where Mauer put the tag on a charging Rich for the final out.

"The game’s over if you slide there," New Haven manager Marty Pevey said. "The play is right in front of (the runner). You can see it develop. In that situation you have to slide hard through the plate."

Bartlett’s double scored B.J. Garbe with the go-ahead run in the 12th. Deardorff and Terry Tiffee added RBI singles and Gabby Torres drove in a run on a fielder’s choice later in the inning. Ogiltree allowed all four runs.

The Rock Cats took an early 1-0 lead in the second inning and an RBI single to center by Kevin West.

New Haven tied the score in the bottom of the second on Anthony Sanders’ solo homer to left-center field, then took the lead on Rios’ shot to center in the sixth.

http://www.newhavenregister.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=10116660&BRD=1281&PAG=461&dept_id=7592&rfi=6
I should have credited the New Haven register for the previous story. They also have a nice feature piece on Dustin McGowan who pitched last nights game. Click on my homepage for the article.

Thanks, Gerry. That was a tough way to lose.

I think McGowan and the rest of the young pitchers are in good hands:

"They (Ravens manager Marty Pevey and his staff) beat it in my head every day that at this level and on up, it doesn't matter how hard you throw. You have to change speeds and locate or you'll get beat."

Pistol is correct; if the Ravens split in New Britain (Bush and Reimers are the scheduled starters) Game 5 will be in New Haven on Sunday afternoon, with Chris Baker on the mound.

Regarding how to follow the game, both ESPN and USATODAY have scores for both AA and A games. The former going to minorleagues then to scores, the latter from the baseball page to scores, AA is updated every half hour and publish the boxscore at the end, single A games just have an end of the game score/update.
If someone knows something better please pass it on...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/minors/2003-09-05-minor-league-triple-crown_x.htm
Word of Big Vito's Triple Crown is spreading:

http://www.syracuse.com/sports/poststandard/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/106275120368210.xml

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/minors/2003-09-05-minor-league-triple-crown_x.htm

New Haven is trying to make New Britain manager Stan Cliburn eat his words as reported by the New Haven Register.

'New Britain manager Stan Cliburn raised some eyebrows in the Ravens’ camp with comments he made at the Rock Cats’ media day on Tuesday. Cliburn predicted New Britain would win the series, and in no more than four games ... "I think there’s going to be a big celebration here in (New Britain) Stadium this weekend."'

David Bush and his fellow Ravenous Ravens demolished the Aeros 8-1. New Haven: 19 hits. New Britain: 3 hits.