Talk amongst yourselves -- hijack away!
I'll begin by reposting something that Doug Pappas (not only a great business-of-baseball guy, but the world's foremost expert on manager ejections) posted in response to a question on SABR-L:
"Through yesterday, Bobby Cox had 108 ejections, good for third place all-time behind John McGraw (131) and Leo Durocher (121). (Note: as ejection data is incomplete, these are only the ones I've identified -- McGraw and Durocher, especially, may have quite a few more.)
Cox is not the leader in ejections/games managed, though. He's now
managed over 3,300 games, so he's been ejected less than once per
30 games. Earl Weaver (98 ejections in 2,541 games) is ahead of him,
but Earl's not the leader, either.
Among managers with a significant number of games managed, Paul
Richards is the Short Fuse leader: 80 ejections in 1,837 games, or
one ejection for every 23 games managed."
Any favourite ejection stories?
"Through yesterday, Bobby Cox had 108 ejections, good for third place all-time behind John McGraw (131) and Leo Durocher (121). (Note: as ejection data is incomplete, these are only the ones I've identified -- McGraw and Durocher, especially, may have quite a few more.)
Cox is not the leader in ejections/games managed, though. He's now
managed over 3,300 games, so he's been ejected less than once per
30 games. Earl Weaver (98 ejections in 2,541 games) is ahead of him,
but Earl's not the leader, either.
Among managers with a significant number of games managed, Paul
Richards is the Short Fuse leader: 80 ejections in 1,837 games, or
one ejection for every 23 games managed."
Any favourite ejection stories?
Topic Two - With two games left in the NYP League season, Vito Chiaravolloti is back leading all the Triple Crown categories.
He leads by three in the HR column, the RBI title is well safe (he leads by 18), but he is clinging to a five-point batting advantage over Nyjer Morganm .350-.345.
Go Vito!
He leads by three in the HR column, the RBI title is well safe (he leads by 18), but he is clinging to a five-point batting advantage over Nyjer Morganm .350-.345.
Go Vito!
There have been two other (near-) triple crown performances in the minors... Fernando Seguignol was achingly close to a Triple Crown in the IL, missing by just 6 RBI. Ryan Howard missed the FSL triple crown by 7 RBI.
Other Blue Jays league-leading performances... Alexis Rios led the Eastern League in hits and batting average, and Dave Gassner won the Eastern League ERA title. Vito C is also leading the NYP in slugging percentage and OBP. Juan Peralta is leading the NYP in runs scored. Kurt Isenberg is leading the NYP is ERA, and Tom Mastny in wins.
Incidentally, Corey Hart led the Southern League in RBIs with 94, leading one to wonder about the possible benefit to hitters of wearing sunglasses at night.
Other Blue Jays league-leading performances... Alexis Rios led the Eastern League in hits and batting average, and Dave Gassner won the Eastern League ERA title. Vito C is also leading the NYP in slugging percentage and OBP. Juan Peralta is leading the NYP in runs scored. Kurt Isenberg is leading the NYP is ERA, and Tom Mastny in wins.
Incidentally, Corey Hart led the Southern League in RBIs with 94, leading one to wonder about the possible benefit to hitters of wearing sunglasses at night.
Hinske has been mentioned as having a 1B/DH future (for some it's in the near future). What about LF? I think he suits the position perfectly. Decent speed, good arm.
I think the Jays have too many OF options to consider Hinske there, even if he could play the position. Unless you like Pond (who reportedly is makes Hinske look good at 3B) or think the Jays would sign someone to play 3rd I think Hinske will be at 3B for the life of his contract.
The Jays would lose a significant portion of Hinske's value if he had to be moved to a position other than third. He just has to start hitting well enough to cover up his defence. And he has to trim down some in the off-season and get lighter and quicker; at 25 he's already a beefy guy and if he doesn't work hard then by the time his contract is up he's going to look like late-career Tony Gwynn or Kirby Puckett out there.
He also needs to learn to field and throw the ball in one motion consistently. It's going to take a lot of practice to break his crow hop double clutch habit which costs the Jays a lot of doubleplays on balls hit almost directly at him.
He also needs to learn to field and throw the ball in one motion consistently. It's going to take a lot of practice to break his crow hop double clutch habit which costs the Jays a lot of doubleplays on balls hit almost directly at him.
This is a question built on whimsy, but that's the mood I'm in so here goes. The question is premised on my gut feeling that perennial playoff contenders are built on the Oakland/Seattle model (i.e. have 3 top notch starters, cobble together an offense built around 3-4 primary hitters and some good defense). I'm sure that premise in and of itself can get some people going.
My question is as follows. JP has said the Jays have around $12 million to spend already. Here's where the whimsy kicks in, suppose the Jays could trade Delgado in the offseason. Obviously, his no trade clause puts this into the "theoretical category". To properly follow this through, I would say that to trade him, the Jays probably would have to agree to pay around $5 million of his next year's salary, saving about $13 million (the number varies considerably depending on who you get back, but for the sake of argument, I think this is reasonable). I will also set this up by saying that in the trade the Jays simply get back a prospect or prospects so no major league salary to take on. This would leave approximately $25 million in salary room. Some of this would need to go to Halladay for a pay raise. However you would still be left with over $20 million. Would you spend it on getting 2 top quality starters? Say Millwood and Colon? Or one of those two, Escobar and some bullpen help? The damage to the offense would be substantial but would the improved pitching offset this?
It's really a question built around roster construction. In my opinion, if you could do it, I think you would at least have to consider this. It's a huge gamble because you would have a huge chunk of payroll in pitching which is risky. On the flip side, I do not see the '04 Jays as having the pitching to contend, and resigning Delgado seems a long shot, so maybe rolling the dice on another strategy is worthwhile.
My question is as follows. JP has said the Jays have around $12 million to spend already. Here's where the whimsy kicks in, suppose the Jays could trade Delgado in the offseason. Obviously, his no trade clause puts this into the "theoretical category". To properly follow this through, I would say that to trade him, the Jays probably would have to agree to pay around $5 million of his next year's salary, saving about $13 million (the number varies considerably depending on who you get back, but for the sake of argument, I think this is reasonable). I will also set this up by saying that in the trade the Jays simply get back a prospect or prospects so no major league salary to take on. This would leave approximately $25 million in salary room. Some of this would need to go to Halladay for a pay raise. However you would still be left with over $20 million. Would you spend it on getting 2 top quality starters? Say Millwood and Colon? Or one of those two, Escobar and some bullpen help? The damage to the offense would be substantial but would the improved pitching offset this?
It's really a question built around roster construction. In my opinion, if you could do it, I think you would at least have to consider this. It's a huge gamble because you would have a huge chunk of payroll in pitching which is risky. On the flip side, I do not see the '04 Jays as having the pitching to contend, and resigning Delgado seems a long shot, so maybe rolling the dice on another strategy is worthwhile.
Does anyone know what time the new logo gets unveiled today?
Is there a press conference?
They sure have kept this hush-hush.
Is there a press conference?
They sure have kept this hush-hush.
Would you spend it on getting 2 top quality starters? Say Millwood and Colon?
I think a more realistic plan would be JP trying to acquire "young veteran" pitchers (3 or 4 years experience) set to become Millwoodish. Those guys are only available by trade. Outside of Colon, Millwood and maybe Pettitte, there will be very few quality starting pitching FAs on the market come fall. The lack of options ensure that Ponson and Escobar will be overpaid. I don't even see many reclamation projects. I've mentioned Wilson Alvarez before, but even at his best, he's no top starter...simply cheap and effective.
Looking at the FA list, Seattle is going to take a pretty big hit next year. Benitez, Cameron, Hasegawa, Edgar and Arthur Rhodes are all FA.
I think a more realistic plan would be JP trying to acquire "young veteran" pitchers (3 or 4 years experience) set to become Millwoodish. Those guys are only available by trade. Outside of Colon, Millwood and maybe Pettitte, there will be very few quality starting pitching FAs on the market come fall. The lack of options ensure that Ponson and Escobar will be overpaid. I don't even see many reclamation projects. I've mentioned Wilson Alvarez before, but even at his best, he's no top starter...simply cheap and effective.
Looking at the FA list, Seattle is going to take a pretty big hit next year. Benitez, Cameron, Hasegawa, Edgar and Arthur Rhodes are all FA.
Nigel, the "Oakland/Seattle model" (I think Bobby Cox actually holds the trademark for this one, though Earl Weaver might dispute that) is a good one, and clearly the favoured method for building winners these days. Put together a killer front end of a rotation, get three or four solid bats, and try to fill lineup holes on the fly with Sid Breams and Gerald Williamses and Julio Francos and Mike Remlingers.
Historically, the most popular method for building juggernauts is the "score a crapload of runs" method, where the lineup of big bats come first and you try to beg, borrow, or steal enough pitching to propel you each year. This system works quite well because hitters are very consistent and more predictable, while pitchers tend to be more up-and-down and pitchers are found mostly (it seems) by luck. The Stengel/Houk Yankees, the Joe McCarthy Yankees, the 40s/50s Dodgers, John McGraw's Giants, LaRussa's A's (don't let that park fool you), and even the Cito Gaston Jays all followed this model.
The biggest recent juggernaut, the Yankees, are lucky enough to have the best of both worlds.
As to your actual question, I'm not sure I would trade Delgado if I had to eat salary, unless I was getting a lot back. He makes his money and I think he can be re-signed during or after 2004.
That said, the Jays have some good young hitters but not good young pitchers. If I wanted to actually compete in 2004, I'd go out and sign the starting pitching and try to replace Delgado either in the trade or by signing a free-agent outfielder. Phelps could play first, Kielty stay in the outfield, and I could try to find some sort of DH by platooning a couple of cheap signings. A free-agent outfielder (a Reggie Sanders type, though no one could be expected to perform like Sanders has... All-Star production for $1 million!) could then nail down the other outfield spot.
That's not my preferred option. $25 million buys you two starters and not a lot else. One position player and one relief pitcher, probably. And that's before inking Halladay to a long-term deal.
I wouldn't go out and sign any starting pitching actually available on the free agent market, though, unless it was rock-solid and at a good price (yeah, right), with an eye to competing down the road. Too much can happen between the 2003 offseason and 2005 or 2006.
Historically, the most popular method for building juggernauts is the "score a crapload of runs" method, where the lineup of big bats come first and you try to beg, borrow, or steal enough pitching to propel you each year. This system works quite well because hitters are very consistent and more predictable, while pitchers tend to be more up-and-down and pitchers are found mostly (it seems) by luck. The Stengel/Houk Yankees, the Joe McCarthy Yankees, the 40s/50s Dodgers, John McGraw's Giants, LaRussa's A's (don't let that park fool you), and even the Cito Gaston Jays all followed this model.
The biggest recent juggernaut, the Yankees, are lucky enough to have the best of both worlds.
As to your actual question, I'm not sure I would trade Delgado if I had to eat salary, unless I was getting a lot back. He makes his money and I think he can be re-signed during or after 2004.
That said, the Jays have some good young hitters but not good young pitchers. If I wanted to actually compete in 2004, I'd go out and sign the starting pitching and try to replace Delgado either in the trade or by signing a free-agent outfielder. Phelps could play first, Kielty stay in the outfield, and I could try to find some sort of DH by platooning a couple of cheap signings. A free-agent outfielder (a Reggie Sanders type, though no one could be expected to perform like Sanders has... All-Star production for $1 million!) could then nail down the other outfield spot.
That's not my preferred option. $25 million buys you two starters and not a lot else. One position player and one relief pitcher, probably. And that's before inking Halladay to a long-term deal.
I wouldn't go out and sign any starting pitching actually available on the free agent market, though, unless it was rock-solid and at a good price (yeah, right), with an eye to competing down the road. Too much can happen between the 2003 offseason and 2005 or 2006.
That's all *if* I had to trade Carlos. I wouldn't want to do that without a good player coming back, a pitcher or a player (no prospects please!) who is solid and good value.
Craig,
Gaston Jays did not follow that model! Given the park, their pitching/defence was almost always among the best in the league. The '93 club favoured offence, but the '92 club had great pitching and defence.
Gaston Jays did not follow that model! Given the park, their pitching/defence was almost always among the best in the league. The '93 club favoured offence, but the '92 club had great pitching and defence.
Craig, I was thinking of this in the context of '04. In one sense what you are saying is "hold your powder" and try and use the budget room to match some of the young players in '05 and '06. I can see the point in that. The free agent crop this year is not great. Where I think there are problems with your approach is that I think Delgado would be resigned at the cost of a front line starter and maybe one other player. In other words, resigning Delgado (even assuming the market correction) would stil be in the $11-13 million range. As great an offensive force as he is, I would vote to spend that on established pitching rather than resigning Delgado. Whether you do it now for '04 or just let him walk after next year, I think Delgado has to go in order to free up salary room for pitching.
Robert, I agree. I actually view the '92 Jays and the '93 Jays as very different teams and they followed the two models Craig suggested. I think the '92 Jays were really built on pitching and defense.
Mildly interesting non-Blue Jays news:
- Drew Hensen to Houston
- Todd Sears was DFA by the Twins. He's had a pretty bad season but did quite well prior to. He hits for average, has ok power, is said to possess a VERY good glove and once he gets out of the Twin's system, might start walking again. I wouldn't mind that on the Jays' bench.
- Drew Hensen to Houston
- Todd Sears was DFA by the Twins. He's had a pretty bad season but did quite well prior to. He hits for average, has ok power, is said to possess a VERY good glove and once he gets out of the Twin's system, might start walking again. I wouldn't mind that on the Jays' bench.
If Delgado goes, the Jays are going to have a hell of a time putting together a decent offence. If that happens they better have a 3 ace starters, a strong bullpen and a good defence if they expect to compete.
Delgado is only signed for one more year. His contract has already been budgeted for. I don't think trading him makes much sense unless you can get a Cy Young candidate to replace the MVP candidate the Jays would be giving up. His contract is not an albatross.
Remember when Delgado was signed people were complaining that it was only for four years? The media (and me to be honest) wondered why the Jays didn't lock Delgado up for at least 6 or 7 years like the 'Stros did with Bagwell, Reds did with Griffey, etc. The thinking at the time was that at the end of the four years, we'd have to give Delgado 30M/yr if we wanted to keep him around. Unless Gord Ash accurately predicted where the baseball market was headed, it seems he stumbled into a bit of fortune by only inking Delgado to a four year deal.
The state of the market and Delgado liking Toronto means that it is possible that he would agree to an extension sometime during the next year at a price much lower than the 18M/year. This would be more likely if he likes the direction the team is headed. I don't think you can plug in Phelps at first and use the savings on pitching. Delgado is a top five player in the league and an argument can be made that he is not overpaid.
If the Jays really want to focus on the Oakland model they will look inward for the pitching help they need. Expensive starters merely keep the David Bushes, Justin McGowans, Jason Arnolds, and Francisco Rosarios in the minors. I'm a firm belever that the pitching is here, we just have to wait for it.
On a side note, does anyone know the details of the new logo unveiling? I'm hoping the Jays have the guts to drop the maple leaf from the logo. Stick in on the sleeve if you must but the blue/black logo does not need a token red maple leaf. Of course, Griffin would have a field day if the logo drops the maple leaf.
Remember when Delgado was signed people were complaining that it was only for four years? The media (and me to be honest) wondered why the Jays didn't lock Delgado up for at least 6 or 7 years like the 'Stros did with Bagwell, Reds did with Griffey, etc. The thinking at the time was that at the end of the four years, we'd have to give Delgado 30M/yr if we wanted to keep him around. Unless Gord Ash accurately predicted where the baseball market was headed, it seems he stumbled into a bit of fortune by only inking Delgado to a four year deal.
The state of the market and Delgado liking Toronto means that it is possible that he would agree to an extension sometime during the next year at a price much lower than the 18M/year. This would be more likely if he likes the direction the team is headed. I don't think you can plug in Phelps at first and use the savings on pitching. Delgado is a top five player in the league and an argument can be made that he is not overpaid.
If the Jays really want to focus on the Oakland model they will look inward for the pitching help they need. Expensive starters merely keep the David Bushes, Justin McGowans, Jason Arnolds, and Francisco Rosarios in the minors. I'm a firm belever that the pitching is here, we just have to wait for it.
On a side note, does anyone know the details of the new logo unveiling? I'm hoping the Jays have the guts to drop the maple leaf from the logo. Stick in on the sleeve if you must but the blue/black logo does not need a token red maple leaf. Of course, Griffin would have a field day if the logo drops the maple leaf.
Todd Sears was instrumental in getting the Edmonton Trappers the PCL championship last year. After the Twins dropped us as their AAA affiliate and we got stuck with the Expos, I didn't think I'd see another PCL championship again. Thank God for Minaya's refusal to call up Termell Sledge. Starting tomorrow the Trappers are back in the playoffs against the Sacramento River Cats.
Free Termel Slegde!!!...after the PCL playoffs.
Free Termel Slegde!!!...after the PCL playoffs.
Nigel, for Delgado, I'd have to get two pitching prospects that instantly slot into my top four in the organization and a corner OF/1B/DH bat who could step in right away as a good platoon player or emergency everyday guy. The F-Cat wouldn't still be around and Reed would be further downt he depth chart. I'd then use the money saved on Millwood, Escobar (I think Colon is ready to start fading and Escobar is on the rise) , and bullpen help.
I just noticed that ESPN's MLB site has a poll about which player on a non-contender deserves the MVP. Choices are Delgado, ARod, G. Anderson, and VDub.
If you like statistically irrelevant polls, you've now got another one!
If you like statistically irrelevant polls, you've now got another one!
Nigel, the "Oakland/Seattle model" (I think Bobby Cox actually holds the trademark for this one, though Earl Weaver might dispute that) is a good one, and clearly the favoured method for building winners these days. Put together a killer front end of a rotation, get three or four solid bats, and try to fill lineup holes on the fly with Sid Breams and Gerald Williamses and Julio Francos and Mike Remlingers.
Bobby Cox holds a distinct advantage over his peers using this model because he is the only one with an idiot-savant pitching coach. Ok, maybe that's a little unfair, but has anyone seen Mazzone do his autistic rocking thing during a game? And nobody can dispute his talent for turning retreads into stars -- he's been doing it for the last decade.
In a bit of a hijack, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict the Braves will win the WS this year. Their pitching is still plenty strong, but their hitting has been phenomenal. Sheffield and two Joneses have been their usual selves, but add in a resurgent Javy Lopez and long overdue Marcus Giles, and you have a really potent linuep:
OBA: 1st (tie)
SLG: 1st (by a country mile)
Runs: 1st (43 ahead of St. Louis, who are also scary)
The kicker is: nobody has really noticed this. Even with all that TBS coverage, they have somehow managed to slip under the radar this year. It likely has something to do with losing Glavine and Millwood I suppose (though Ortiz and Hampton have been almost as good). With that offense, Maddux/Ortiz/Hampton are probably good enough to win a short series.
The only possible problem is Smoltz -- if he comes up lame, they might have some trouble closing out games.
Jacko, the Braves would also be my betting favorite for the World Series, a hair ahead of the Yankees and A's.
I'm still picking the Astros. :) I don't like to change horses in midstream! Mind you, the Astros are looking worse and worse as a pick.
As you say, Mike Hampton is having a great comeback year... in almost total silence.
I'm still picking the Astros. :) I don't like to change horses in midstream! Mind you, the Astros are looking worse and worse as a pick.
As you say, Mike Hampton is having a great comeback year... in almost total silence.
Hey, someone just pointed out to me that Mark Prior threw 131 pitches in a 7-0 game yesterday. Great job, Dusty.
The new logo is up at bluejays.com, and I for one think it's pretty sharp.
The new 2004 logo is 100 times better than the one they have now. But scoop up those caps and jerseys with the T-Bird while you can because in 20 years, those will cost $500 each!!
Yeah, you were paid to say that, BJ Birdy :) Actually, I like it too. Sharp colors, nice modern look. The lettering is maybe a bit too rounded for my liking but overall I like it. A B+ from me, certainly wouldn't deter me from buying merch.
Actually, Mark, anything positive I have to say comes despite the lingering bitterness I feel to this day about my untimely dismissal.
I am still scouring the logo for subliminal "rent videos only at Rogers" messages
Look at it upside down. It takes a little imagination, but that could spell "Rogers."
I was disappointed with the logo when I first saw it on Sportsnet, but it's grown on me. I'll have to see what the uniforms look like later tonight.
I was disappointed with the logo when I first saw it on Sportsnet, but it's grown on me. I'll have to see what the uniforms look like later tonight.
If the caps have the only the bird without the script, they will look sweet. I imagine the script will go across the jersey. I'm pretty happy with it. I am a proud Canadian but the red maple leaf always seemed to be unnecessarily tacked on.
Craig,
I don't like changing horses either so I'll stick with my preseason prediction and will cheer the Padres on to the WS championship. It seems that I was one year early on that prediction. Oh well, if Nostradamus can miss by a century or two I suppose I get a one year leeway.
Craig,
I don't like changing horses either so I'll stick with my preseason prediction and will cheer the Padres on to the WS championship. It seems that I was one year early on that prediction. Oh well, if Nostradamus can miss by a century or two I suppose I get a one year leeway.
the red maple leaf always seemed to be unnecessarily tacked on
It didn't need a leaf, but I'm surprised there isn't a hint of red in the new mark.
...anything positive I have to say comes despite the lingering bitterness I feel to this day about my untimely dismissal.
BJ Birdy, you're a 5-tool mascot in a sabermetric world. You have to adjust. Maybe you could modify the old getup into a Roadrunner and try hockey.
It didn't need a leaf, but I'm surprised there isn't a hint of red in the new mark.
...anything positive I have to say comes despite the lingering bitterness I feel to this day about my untimely dismissal.
BJ Birdy, you're a 5-tool mascot in a sabermetric world. You have to adjust. Maybe you could modify the old getup into a Roadrunner and try hockey.
In his Notes at MLB.com, Spencer Fordin quotes Jason Giambi on Roy Halladay's latest gem:
"It was like he was out on the playground, like it wasn't a big-league game. He was doing whatever he wanted with the ball, like he was in some pick-up wiffle ball game."
There's also gome good stuff on Phelps and Hinske.
"It was like he was out on the playground, like it wasn't a big-league game. He was doing whatever he wanted with the ball, like he was in some pick-up wiffle ball game."
There's also gome good stuff on Phelps and Hinske.
hey, he is calling " armchair decision-makers" to many of us bloggers in the free Josh bandwagon...
Oh, and happy 13th anniversary to Dave Stieb on his no-hitter