Concerned About Hinske? (By Leigh Sprague)

I am a regular poster on a fantasy baseball website, and recently came across the following response to a post in which I recommended to a fellow fantasy owner that he pick up Eric Hinske off of the waiver wire:

I laugh everytime I see someone recommending Hinske. I dropped him a month ago and I should have done it even earlier. He is sooo over-rated. If your league gives a lot of points for 3B that consistently hit .240 with an occasional HR - then he is your man. If not, I think you can do much better than Hinske.

Now, I tend to get a little bit defensive when a fellow message board poster laughs at my player recommendations, especially one who uses the 12 year-old girl spelling of the word “so”.

So naturally, I decided to look for some evidence to back up my recommendation, lest the readers of the post think that the picture of Rance Mulliniks on my avatar somehow constitutes bias.

My conclusions below are based on a couple of assertions: firstly, flyball hitters tend to hit more homeruns that groundball hitters. This is an accepted and perfectly reasonable assertion, because groundballs cannot clear the fence. Secondly, a decrease in homerun rate can sometimes be dismissed as a minor irregularity in a player’s career path if that player experiences, at the same time, an increase in the rate at which he hits doubles.

To date in 2003, Hinske has a groundball/flyball ratio of 0.95 (endnote 1). This is low, and thus indicates that Hinske hits a disproportionately high number of flyballs.

There are twenty Major Leaguers who, in 2003, have at least 345 plate appearances and a groundball/flyball ratio between 0.90 and 0.99. Of those twenty hitters, Hinske has the lowest rate of homeruns per double.

Player	Team	Pos	G	AB	2B	3B	HR	GB/FB	HR/2B
Ensberg, M	Hou	3B	103	307	11	1	19	0.94	1.73
Jones, A	Atl	OF	125	485	22	1	31	0.97	1.41
Thome,J	Phi	1B	128	470	26	2	36	0.94	1.38
Klesko,R	SD	1B	117	382	18	0	20	0.92	1.11
Ramirez, M	Bos	OF	130	485	30	1	31	0.92	1.03
Delgado, C	Tor	1B	131	466	33	1	33	0.94	1.00
Lee, C	ChW	OF	128	501	27	1	26	0.96	0.96
Pena, C	Det	1B	101	348	18	6	14	0.93	0.78
Cruz, J	SF	OF	129	445	22	1	17	0.97	0.77
Wells, V	Tor	OF	131	557	40	3	30	0.92	0.75
Ventura, R	LA	3B	109	342	17	1	11	0.96	0.65
Gonzalez, L	Arz	OF	129	485	38	4	22	0.99	0.58
Koskie, C	Min	3B	106	393	25	1	14	0.98	0.56
Matos, L	Bal	OF	83	346	19	3	10	0.99	0.53
Kielty, B	Tor	OF	109	346	21	1	11	0.95	0.52
Molina, B	Ana	C	113	385	24	0	11	0.97	0.46
Fick, R	Atl	OF	102	340	24	1	10	0.96	0.42
Liebertal, M	Phi	C	105 [ Reply to This ] _Andrew Edwards - Sunday, August 31 2003 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#93205) # I'm just gonna assume that it's not accidental that the first table has so many Jays. I assume Keith Law has worked something out. [ Reply to This ] _Jordan - Sunday, August 31 2003 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#93206) # Robert Dudek, Leigh Sprague. Leigh Sprague, Robert Dudek. :-) Great work, Leigh, and thanks very much for submitting it to Da Box. A lot of people have been wondering about Hinske's continued struggles post-surgery, so it's good to see this detailed analysis that gives one hope for 2004. It's funny to think that in the off-season, Vernon Wells and Hinske received near-identical five-year contracts; after year one of those deals, people are seriously talking about Wells as the best CF in baseball, while Hinske is going to be labelled a "disappointment" for his efforts. I sure didn't anticipate Vernon breaking out like this, but I'm also confident that Eric will have a solid bounce-back season next year. And of course, the more current and future lawyers we have at this site, the better. Welcome to the club, Leigh! :-) [ Reply to This ] Coach - Monday, September 01 2003 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#93207) # I agree with Robert that many of Hinske's doubles early this season would have left the yard if Eric was using two good hands, but it was fun to read the "proof" that it was a fluke. Welcome aboard, Leigh. You are, like, sooo thorough. [ Reply to This ] _Lefty - Monday, September 01 2003 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#93208) # Sure hope my roto competitors aren't reading this board. I'm hoping to get Eric real cheap next season. Interesting analyses, nice work, thanks. [ Reply to This ] Pistol - Monday, September 01 2003 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#93209) # Well, 2 more doubles and 0 HRs. The gap widens. I can agree with the frustration of having Hinske on a fantasy team, especially in a league with BA as a cateogry. I never looked too closely at Hinske's numbers, but I wasn't too concerned since he was a league leader in doubles despite missing a month. I expect him to better his rookie numbers next season. This just confirms that more. Looking a little bit at his numbers, Hinske's isolated slugging is almost identical to where it was last year (around .200) In 2002 he had 64 XB hits in 566 ABs (11.3%). This year he has 49 in 362 (13.5%) - he's actually improved. 2003- 21.5% K rate. 2002- 24.4% K rate. He's cut down on the K's this year. 2003 - 12.9% BB rate. 2002 - 13.6% walk rate. A slight decline, but nothing too significant. I'm not worried at all about Hinske. [ Reply to This ] Gitz - Monday, September 01 2003 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#93210) # I'm starting to get a little self-conscious (read: I'm feeling stupid) being surrounded by all these lawyers. I'm applying for my PhD so I can at least have MORE degrees than everyone, even if each one is successively useless than the previous one. [ Reply to This ] Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, September 02 2003 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#93211) # http://economics.about.com I'm starting to get a little self-conscious (read: I'm feeling stupid) being surrounded by all these lawyers. I'm applying for my PhD so I can at least have MORE degrees than everyone, even if each one is successively useless than the previous one. I'm sure we have some openings at Rochester. I'll put in a good word for ya. Of course, to be successful in a top level graduate program in economics, you have to work 80-100 hours a week. Being an idiot savant helps greatly. It's also important to be incredibly focused and detached from reality to the point of autism. Leigh: This is terrific stuff. Thanks for doing this! I won't be around much for the next two weeks as I'm unpacking from a recent move. I've also changed offices, so I'm trying to get that all sorted out as well. I take full responsibility for any drop in pageviews the Box experiences, as well for any new visitors who arrive in my absence. Toodles, Mike [ Reply to This ] Craig B - Tuesday, September 02 2003 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#93212) # It's also important to be incredibly focused and detached from reality to the point of autism. He just keeps groovin' 'em in there, don't he? [ Reply to This ] Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, September 02 2003 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#93213) # http://economics.about.com He just keeps groovin' 'em in there, don't he? Yeah, but I'm lousy at my job, remember? :) Mike [ Reply to This ] _Spicol - Tuesday, September 02 2003 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#93214) # And of course, the more current and future lawyers we have at this site, the better. I'd like to know who is getting billed for all of this chatter... [ Reply to This ] Leigh - Tuesday, September 02 2003 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#93215) # I'm glad you guys liked it. That will come as at least minor comfort next week when my attention turns from box scores to some British wills and estates judgments from the 1800's. Arghh [accurate onomatopoeia, I assure you, as menial law school tasks actually cause me to make that noise]. Hinske should turn it around, in terms of doubles/homeruns. He is hitting doubles at an historic rate. The top five in MLB [with any meaningful number of at bats] in doubles/at bats: 1. Hinske .109 2. DOrtiz .097 3. MGiles .092 4. Mueller .091 5. Bradley .090 It really isn't close. Hopefully, I will be able to do some more pinch hitting; school be damned. If anybody has any ideas for future pinch hits, or if any of the 10,000 lawyers on Da Box want to give me a job, email me. [ Reply to This ] Leigh - Tuesday, September 02 2003 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#93216) # Kidding about the job thing; but not about the ideas for future pinch hits thing. 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