And Josh Phelps is rewarded for his 2-for-4 last night by getting a front row seat to watch tonight's game.

Yeah, the Phelps benching for this game is more puzzling than ever. 12 RBI over his last 14 games and a big game last night. It's not like they're facing Pedro Martinez tonight by any means. This benching might make the situation officially ridiculous.

We need an Aaron Gleeman style free Josh Phelps sidebar!

I can only hope Myers is being "showcased" to other teams for a possible trade before Monday. Catalanotto has been taking a seat on the bench in favour of a younger player, so why isn't Myers being treated the same way?

Phelps's first two months of 2003 were nothing to write home about, but they were still far better than what Reed Johnson has managed to do the last two months. If they're not worried about Johnson's confidence when he's been hitting like Cesar Izturis, why are they worried about Phelps's when he's been hitting quite well? What gives?

Gwyn, Phelps' stats aren't nearly as dominating as Kielty's and Santana's were when Gleeman had the sidebar for them, but I have a feeling we'll be proven just as right in trying to free Phelps as Aaron was in trying to free Johan :-) .

It's 5-1 good guys after a F-Cat homerun. Lidle has given up 1 run on 2 hits through five. Ricciardi should be on the phone as we speak pushing a healthy and recovered Lidle (who would also, we are lead to believe, be relieved to get out of T-O) on the contenders out there. With the large numbers of teams still in the hunt, there has to be somebody willing to give up a good prospect. Maybe J.P. will have to eat the salary, but we don't need the salary room this year, so why not? Also, why not throw in a mid-level prospect or a guy like Pon who might be major league ready too and try to get someone who might really be part of our future? I'm sure J.P. has all the bases covered (and he's certainly not listening to me anyway) but this is just some wishful thinking and fantasy managing on my part.

And by 'Pon' I mean Pond.

Let the cavalcade of pitching changes begin!

Somebody might want Lidle after tonight's performance.

I assume that Phelps is sitting because Tosca wants to get Myers some at-bats. Cash has taken some of Myers' playing time. I assume that Tosca is also trying to boost Phelps's confidence by putting him in situations where he is likely to succeed.

The Cleveland outfielders must be taking bad routes to the ball - they seem to be narrowly missing everything in the outfield.

With the large numbers of teams still in the hunt, there has to be somebody willing to give up a good prospect. Maybe J.P. will have to eat the salary, but we don't need the salary room this year, so why not?

If there's any offers for Lidle the Jays should just take the best one, even if they pay the remainder of the contract. Lidle won't be offered arbitration (or I'd be shocked if they or someone else did) so the Jays won't get anything if he signs with someone else, and if they are considering re-signing him they still can even if he's traded. So if anyone offers even a marginal prospect (like an A ball pitcher) there's no harm in doing pulling the trigger.

Speaking of the Gleeman sidebar, has Stewart been hot since he's been traded, or what?

It's Cash's extended audition that has cut into Phelps' playing time the most. Myers and Wilson have had their PAs cut too, and Tosca probably feels like he owes them, so he's giving them some PAs at DH.

Prediction: Cash will not be a useful major leaguer for another 2 years.

Speaking of the trading deadline(Aug. 31) is there a time deadline?

\Prediction: Cash will not be a useful major leaguer for another 2 years.\

And it's possible Quiroz could pass him on the depth chart by then.

Pistol - Stewart has been so hot, it's sick. No way he should have an OPS over .900. While it is small sample size, the sample is getting pretty significant, and his numbers are still way up there.

I agree with J.P. taking the best one, there's no way he should keep Lidle for the rest of this year. I also think, he should be agrressive and that HE should be proposing some deals, instead of just waiting by the phone. I also think that J.P. will be stubborn, and after expecting a good prospect for Lidle in June/July, he won't accept an A-Ball pitcher and lose Lidle for nothing in the offseason.

BTW, what was Reed thinking pulling his hand off of the bag? Where he put his hand, and the fashion in which he pulled it off, made it look like he was worried about getting hit with Hafner's cleat but that wasn't even close to happening. Luckily, the Jays weren't down by one in the bottom of the ninth when he had that brain cramp.

I think Quiroz has flown past him already. It took a while for me to be sold on Guillermo (and Rios for that matter) but color me convinced. After looking at the end of season stats, and reading more and more about the two, I think we have two legit all-stars on our hand (while Cash will be a good back-up catcher, or fringe starter IMHO). A high average, and top notch XBH numbers (30HR/30DBL) seems very possible for Quiroz. Maybe this is a knee jerk predcition as I finally jump onto his bandwagon, but that won't hurt anybody :-)

Colour me as finally agreeing that Lidle should be shipped off. Admittedly it was only the Indians, but his trade value must have crept up ever so slightly today. Just as Pistol says, the Jays cannot offer Lidle arbitration because he would simply accept it, and if they don't offer him arbitration there are no tasty draft picks.

That said, there are some minor reasons for keeping him around
(i) He'll eat a few innings
(ii) He might be more inclined to sign a (non-arbitration) contract with the Jays for next year if he is still with the team. (maybe)
(iii) Giving him away for nothing is a bad precedent to set. It encourages teams (like Boston, for example) to always expect something for nothing and this may harm future trades.

I have to say I am pleased that JP Ricciardi isn't going to ship Bordick off for a bag of baseballs, mainly for reason (iii) above, though Bordick has more continuing value perhaps than Lidle.

I have to say I am pleased that JP Ricciardi isn't going to ship Bordick off for a bag of baseballs

One wold think that Boston no longer has any interest anyway having re-acquired Merloni.

As for Lidle, just how much leverage do the Jays have in trade matters? You've got a guy with a 6+ ERA, good for another 5 or 6 starts. The Jays may decide the $750K of salary they'd save by giving him away is worth more than paying his salary and getting back a grade C prospect.

It depends on how desperate for pitching some contenders are, Chuck. Lidle has proven prior to this year he can be effective, and has always been able to pitch a lot of innings. It also seems Lidle would be relieved to get out of Toronto, and should be able to put up at least the numbers of a no.3 or 4 starter for the rest of the season and be insurance as a fourth starter or long man in the playoffs.

Here's a though - How about Catalanotto to the Marlins to play (or platoon in) LF, while Miguel Cabrra takes over 3B with Mike Lowell down with a broken hand?

[quote]Here's a though - How about Catalanotto to the Marlins to play (or platoon in) LF, while Miguel Cabrra takes over 3B with Mike Lowell down with a broken hand?[/quote]

I don't think Catalanotto cleard waivers, the Red Sox had interest in him but he was blocked.

It also seems Lidle would be relieved to get out of Toronto, and should be able to put up at least the numbers of a no.3 or 4 starter for the rest of the season and be insurance as a fourth starter or long man in the playoffs.

I remember reading the simliar things about Sturtze leaving TB and coming to Toronto....

The Jays may decide the $750K of salary they'd save by giving him away is worth more than paying his salary and getting back a grade C prospect.

That assumes that a team would be interested in paying Lidle, which given the trades that have happened already seems unlikely.

I think that Lidle would have some value to a couple of teams. I am certain that the Cardinals could use him. He probably could not hurt the Royals either.

Does anybody know if the Jays plan to convert Quiroz to a non-catcher [either 1st base or left field, I suppose]? He is a decent hitting prospect, why shorten his career and lessen his playing time by having him catch? The Jays did this with Delgado and Phelps [Werth was also a catcher]. I shudder when I think about what Delgado's knees would be like if he played in the Majors as a catcher.

Leigh, if Quiroz wasn't so good defensively, maybe they would consider a change. Delgado might have made it as a catcher if his shoulder stayed sound, but his injury turned out to be a blessing. Another factor: the J.P. Jays have done a study about the breakdown rate for tall catchers, and those results influenced their decisions regarding Phelps and Werth. GQ, at 6'1, 200, has the durability odds in his favour, but if he was 6'3" or taller, he might be breaking in a trapper.

Nice work by Lidle. I won't be able to keep an eye on the trade wire today, as we're going to a family function, but he increased his value. Also a great job by Josh Towers, who seems to be adjusting nicely to life in the bullpen. I think we can excuse his one horrible relief outing; he was coming off a brilliant complete-game start, so he was probably disappointed by the demotion, and was still getting used to a new routine. Towers is throwing harder than I've even seen him, which makes his off-speed stuff all the more effective. When he missed the strike zone last night, it wasn't by much.

Does anyone think that the Jays might not be looking to change the bullpen as much as was previously stated?

Lopez
Politte
Kershner
Miller
Rule 5 guy
Mix of Towers/Walker/Reichert/Bowles/Thurman

That seems like a league average bullpen to me. I don't think Thurman has been written off as a starter yet, but if he doesn't show improvement in his next callup, I could see him going to the bullpen permanently.

That leaves a rotation of:

Halladay
Mystery pitcher 1
Mystery pitcher 2
Mystery pitcher 3
Hendrickson

I could see Miller making a comeback for the fourth slot. I highly doubt Escobar will be back. With the payroll being about 48 million, and the savings from Escobar, Lidle and Stewart (minus the obvious raise for Halladay), the team will have about 10 - 12 million for starting pitching. Work your magic, JP!

Check this out people i think that by 2005 maybe 2006 jays line up might look like this

This lineup takes into factor the signing of both Halladay and Escobar and Delgado signing somewhere else




2b Orlando Hudson
ss Aaron Hills
of Gabe Gross
of Vernon Wells
of Alexis Rios
1b josh phelps
DH john ford Griffin
3b Erick Hinske
C Guillermo Quiroz

Sp Roy Halladay
Sp Kelvim Escobar
Sp Jason Arnold
Sp Dustin McGowan
Sp David Bush

closer Adam Peterson
Rp Aquilino Lopez
Rp Jordan DeJong
Rp Jason Kershner
Rp Jamie Vermilyea
Rp Corey Thurman
rest are unknown

That roster looks alright, but the inexperience of the bullpen, while they are talented pitchers, is definitely a worry.

2b Orlando Hudson
ss Aaron Hills
of Gabe Gross
of Vernon Wells
of Alexis Rios
1b josh phelps
DH john ford Griffin
3b Erick Hinske
C Guillermo Quiroz


I think Russ Adams might take Orlando's job in 2005.


Sp Roy Halladay
Sp Kelvim Escobar
Sp Jason Arnold
Sp Dustin McGowan
Sp David Bush


IMO, Escobar is as good as gone. He's a good risk to offer arbitration to, and I doubt that J.P. and company are really interested in signing him long term. Take the picks and run.

Vince Perkins is supposed to have hellacious stuff, and looks like he's finally learning how to control it. Also, Brandon League is regularily throwing his fastball over 100 MPH in the FSL. No guarantees he won't turn out like Billy Koch, but if he can start throwing it with some movement, watch out.


closer Adam Peterson
Rp Aquilino Lopez
Rp Jordan DeJong
Rp Jason Kershner
Rp Jamie Vermilyea
Rp Corey Thurman


Like with David Bush, they will probably experiment with Vermilyea as a starter next year to get him more IP. If that experiment "takes", then he'll show up in the rotation. Thurman really messed up his first chance to join the big league rotation in August, but I think he'll be given another shot in spring training.

Also, if Lopez excels in the closer role in 2004, why not leave him there? Setup seems to be a much better role for young pitchers breaking into the bullpen.

Is that team going to be good enough to win a division title? I'm a bit sceptical.

First of all, the lineup will be much better with Carlos, and I don't think it's out of the question for him to be re-signed at a lower price. Clearly he wants to be here, or he would have waived his no-trade some time in the last 2 years to go to a contender. I can't imagine he'd want to stay through the rebuilding only to leave when the team should be better.

Second, I'd say that the chances of all 3 New Haven outfielders being above-average major leaguers isn't that great. Only Rios is really putting up impressive numbers, and of course JP compared Gross to Jim Eisenreich (a decent enough player, but nothing more). Ford-Griffin is injury-prone.

Third, I'd say the chances of Arnold, Bush, and McGowan all becoming healthy, effective, big-league starters is not that high. Arnold in particular has struggled in AAA, and McGowan is so young that he's a bit hard to project. I like Bush's chances the best, based on his age and performance in college and the minors thus far. I remember reading Rob Neyer's recent assessment of Williams, Foppert, and Ainsworth. His prediction was that 1 would win 100 games, 1 would be a decent pitcher, and 1 would battle injuries. It sounded like he could have been talking about Halladay, Carpenter, and Escobar, three guys who all looked like potential number 1's, but it hasn't quite turned out that way.

Halladay/Carpenter/Escobar...

Two of them are going to win 100 games. Who knows, maybe all three.

Robert, you're probably right, but I think comparing the 3 of them to Arnold, Bush, and McGowan may not be that far off. The point being that having 3 promisting pitchers in AA or above doesn't mean that they're all likely to be healthy, effective big leaguers. I'd be somewhat surprised if all 3 of them are.

As interesting as these "Guess the lineup 3 years from now" exercises are (and I do love them, and have ever since Baseball America started publishing their annual lists by organization), they're not much of a guide to what the future will bring; not all good prospects make it. JP has shown an ability to identify high-upside young players or minor leaguers (Hinske, Lopez, Thurman, Politte, Kielty, Arnold, Ford-Griffin, Prokopec), and I think this will continue, even though some of them haven't or may not become regular contributors. I think we can count on the fact that the 2005 / 2006 Jays will have some more of these types of players, mixed in with a free agent or two. The Jays are committed to youth, but are very good at finding talent for little or no cost, so their prospects are really going to have to earn their major league jobs (right Josh Phelps?).

Here's my question: who do you think are the 3 Jays prospects most likely to be above-average players in Toronto? My guesses are:

1. Rios
2. Bush
3. Quiroz

The point being that having 3 promisting pitchers in AA or above doesn't mean that they're all likely to be healthy, effective big leaguers. I'd be somewhat surprised if all 3 of them are.

I agree completely, which is why I sometimes chuckle when people suggest trading an established big league starter for a couple of pitching prospects. Unless you think one of those guys has a chance to be special, pitching prospects are too speculative to give up a known talent.

My view is, you get about 15 good young arms and you can count on two of them being average or above average starters. If you're lucky you'll get 3, maybe 4 productive pitchers - 1 or 2 of which will most likely work out of the pen.

Rich, I have to go with:

1. Quiroz
2. Rios
3. Bush

Call me crazy, but I think Guillermo can be more of a complete hitter than Rios at the big league level. I don't have the stats in front of me, and I'm probabaly not as educated on Jays prospects, so maybe we should call it a gut feeling at least partially based on the reading of other people's opinions over time.

"Here's my question: who do you think are the 3 Jays prospects most likely to be above-average players in Toronto?"

1. Rios (could be a great hitter and have great range in corner outfield)
2. Quiroz (catching prospects are always speculative because you're never sure if they can handle the position at the major league level until they do)
3. Hill (a shortstop who looks like he'll be a better hitter than Adams)

I don't think any single pitcher in the system has as good a shot to be above average as these three guys. Of all the pitchers in the system, I'm almost sure that at least 2 of them will be. Could be Bush, Arnold, McGowan, Vermilyea, League or a buinch of others. Out of the pitchers, I'd bet McGowan has the best chance.

Unless you think one of those guys has a chance to be special, pitching prospects are too speculative to give up a known talent.

Granted, pitching prospects do pan out at a lower rate of success than hitting prospects. The leap from A to AA is huge, with similar chasms between AA and AAA and then the majors. But if a team isn't prepared to give up known talent to acquire pitching prospects how else will they acquire them in a timely manner?

Here's another way to look at it: If the Jays could acquire someone along the lines of say, Kevin Millwood or Bartolo Colon, which pitching prospects in the system would you NOT give up?

How many minor league pitchers are there in any organization that would be untouchable? Probably not many.

Quiroz, Guillermo .282 108 369 63 104 27 0 20 79 45 83 0 0 .518 .372 4

Rios, Alexis,OF .352 127 514 86 181 32 11 11 82 39 85 11 3 .521 .402

Both look pretty damned good to me.

"But if a team isn't prepared to give up known talent to acquire pitching prospects how else will they acquire them in a timely manner?"

Well, they could wait for their farm system to develop them. Instead of acquiring prospects they could go after relatively young pitchers who've struggled in the majors. They could trade some middle of the road hitting prospects, especially corner outfielder types, for pitching.

What I don't particularly like is trading finished pitchers who have a chance to help your team for very speculative prospects. If you absolutely have to for financial reasons, that's one thing, but to make it an important part of your building strategy isn't a good idea (note, I'm not saying that the Jays have done this).

Well, they could wait for their farm system to develop them.

Is this timely though?

Instead of acquiring prospects they could go after relatively young pitchers who've struggled in the majors.

This is a good strategy for acquiring complementary players but the chances of picking up above-average players is very low.

What I don't particularly like is trading finished pitchers who have a chance to help your team for very speculative prospects.

Except in situations where there are budgetary or free agency concerns, I completely agree with this because you specified the word "very". There is a range of how speculative pitching prospects can be. None are a sure thing, but some (I'm thinking specifically of college drafted pitchers who've been subjected to ideal workloads and who are already in the high minors) are more of a sure thing than others. As well, there are situations where a GM's strategic plan is being played out and he can't wait for the 3 or more years it will take for a farm system to develop pitching prospects from a draft. Perhaps the hitting prospects in the high minors are solid but the pitching is far behind. Acquiring pitching prospects set to develop in the very near future, even though some percentage of them will fail, may mean the difference between contending for 5 years or contending for 2.

I'm not suggesting that teams should feel comfortable enough to trade solid, polished starting pitchers for pitching prospects without a second thought but I do think that closing the door to that possibility is unneccessarily limiting your options. You have to take it on a case by case basis.

We're talking about the chances of minor league pitchers eventually making the big leagues and succeeding. Many of you bring up the point of injuries happening between now and then. I'd venture to guess, though, that the Jays seem to be one of the most protective organisations in the big leagues. All the minor league pitchers are constantly on pitch counts (probably instructed to never go above 110 for e.g.) and I bet instructions come down from on high specific for every pitcher.

Take Bush for e.g. He was a closer in college. In his first pro year, the Jays used him as a reliever (allowing him to better adjust to the new life and the new length of the season). Only now are they making him a starter, and still they are being very protective of his arm.

I guess my point in all this is that it seems as though the Jays are going about things (from a physical health POV) in the right way. They're paying a huge amount of attentionto their pitch counts (not going on innings are previous organisations have) and promoting people very carefully. I'd venture a guess that optimistically we could produce inordinate amounts of healthy pitchers.

Just look at Oakland's big three (they've hardly had any injury problems since they've come up - this year excluded). Through close monitoring of pitch counts in the minors and a slower build up of stress on the arm the pitchers have been able to slide right into a full workload.

I realise though that some stuff you just can't account for. Every pitcher is different, so some arms may break down after only a couple outings on minimal pitch counts. Bad mechanics may also play a role. However, I feel as though the Jays are at least minimizing their possible losses through their extremely protective handling of their pitching prospects.

Sorry for the long post.:)