I hope "general chit-chat" can include a rant against the sociopaths who write and distribute computer viruses. Because my (now-defunct) e-mail address bbcoach@rogers.com was published in my ESPN column the last two years for questions about the Jays, it was wide open for the Sobig virus. After getting flooded with close to a thousand infected messages in the last 24 hours -- apparently, the bug also sends them as me -- I have killed that account for good. Sorry for the inconvenience if you had it on your contact list. You can use coach-at-battersbox-dot-ca until the bastards figure out how to corrupt that too.

Back to baseball -- Mike Ulmer uses the Last Word in the Sun this morning for an entertaining profile of Kevin Cash, complete with a great Thurman Munson anecdote. What a refreshing change from the anti-Jays diatribes that all too often fill that space.

http://economics.about.com
It's a great thing for baseball... because it should slightly quiet all the people who say that only X teams have a shot at the post-season. Where X is a number between 6 and 12.

The season is more than 75% completed, yet according to Baseball Prospect the following 14 teams have at least a 20% chance of making the playoffs:

Boston
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota
Kansas City
Oakland
Seattle

Atlanta
Florida
Philadelphia
Chicago Cubs
Houston
St. Louis
San Fransisco

With a 15th team, Arizona with an 8.6% chance to make the playoffs. Only 11 teams are virtually eliminated, which is pretty good for a league that plays a huge schedule and only has 8 playoff spots.

Mike

Only 11 teams are virtually eliminated, which is pretty good for a league that plays a huge schedule and only has 8 playoff spots.

Which is, of course, terrific; not only are there a ton of teams that may make it, they are all teams of reasonable quality. 3/4 of the way through an NBA or NHL season, the only teams that are still in a playoff battle are usually of extremely uncertain quality.

Even some of the longshot teams, like Montreal, Arizona, and LA, know that if they can put together a good winning run they have a good shot.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
Here's an open forum challenge in honour of the Coach:

Come up with the best baseball-related punishment for those who distribute computer viruses. For example: forcing the perpetrator to watch a Blue Jays-Cardinals game featuring replacement level starting pitching - not hard to imagine - in which both Carlos Tosca and Tony LaRussa have bullpens of 50 strong - 25 lefties and 25 righties - at their disposal.

In watching last night's game I was wondering whether there was room for both Johnson and Kielty on the roster for '04 and on. Johnson is now playing like the 4th outfielder that he is. He certainly has a role as a 4th outfielder and maybe the righty half of a platoon. Unfortunately, I am also now seeing why Minnesota ultimately reached the same conclusion for Kielty. Depending on the decisions for Cat and how advanced Gross is there may not be any choice for '04, but it doesn't seem like an optimal situation to have 2 4th outfielders on the roster if they both offer the same basic skill set.

The central divisions in each league have great races. However none of these teams have a strong shot at the wildcard. Are the central divisions weak, or competitive?

In the AL I think the central teams are a little weaker. I don't see KC or Minnesota doing well in the playoffs. The Whitesox have a better chance with Colon and Buehrle but Jerry Manuel hangs on. Manuel was close to being fired early in the season but he is safe now until the off-season.

In the NL I also think the teams are a little weaker but the Braves and the Giants can be had in the post-season. Can Dusty Baker win the division and ruin the Cubs at the same time? If I am a Cubs fan I am worried about getting into the playoffs. Not worried about getting there, but worried that the offseason will mean more 120 pitch outings for Prior and Wood and over 200 total innings for each. Worried that my pitchers will be injured next year. If you are a Cubs fan do you want to make the playoffs for a short-term gain, or miss them for a long term gain?

Houston were supposed to have a real strong rotation of young kids this year. Oswalt has been good when healthy. However Miller, Robertson, Saarloos, and Redding have been a little disappointing. Is there a Blue Jay warning here?

I think the Twins will take the central, the A's the wild card. In the NL I will go with the dreaded Marlins for the wild card and the Astros in the central. I say the dreaded Marlins because the thought of Loria and Sampson winning anything gives me the willies.

forcing the perpetrator to watch a Blue Jays-Cardinals game featuring replacement level starting pitching - not hard to imagine - in which both Carlos Tosca and Tony LaRussa have bullpens of 50 strong - 25 lefties and 25 righties - at their disposal.

Watching a Jays-Cards game started by Tanyon Sturtze and Jason Simontacchi, with Joe Brinkman behind the plate, full expanded-roster bullpens on either side, and a three-man broadcasting team of Rob Faulds, Pat Tabler and guest analyst Fergie Olver. Watching while having having their toenails extracted by crazed ferrets. That'd be a nice start.

In watching last night's game I was wondering whether there was room for both Johnson and Kielty on the roster for '04 and on.

I can appreciate your wonderment.

In Johnson's first 139 AB he had 13 strikeouts. In his last 138 AB, he has 31. Pitchers have figured out his weaknesses, or else he's regressed...one or the other, or both.

Kielty has the advantage over Johnson though, for multiple reasons. He was traded for by JP, therefore labelled a "JP guy", while Johnson is part of the Ash regime and hasn't amazed enough to justify his stay. Kielty walks. Kielty projects to hit for more power. And Kielty is a switch hitter with the option to give up hitting left-handed. What's going to help Reed hit righties better?

But, once again, I'm going to bring up how justified it is that Reeder gets playing time. It's his showcase for trade in the off-season. There are a few teams who would employ Reed full-time and his stats need to look as good as possible to further entice those potential trading partners.

Just watching it seems that Johnson has no ability to hit anything on the inner half that is hard. As for playing Johnson, it can be a double edged sword. If he continues to play as he is, he will be damaging his trade value not increasing it. All in all though, I agree with playing him. Ultimately, I think the plan for the remainder of the season should be to determine exactly what you have or don't have even if that means damaging trade value.

http://economics.about.com
hope "general chit-chat" can include a rant against the sociopaths who write and distribute computer viruses. Because my (now-defunct) e-mail address bbcoach@rogers.com was published in my ESPN column the last two years for questions about the Jays, it was wide open for the Sobig virus. After getting flooded with close to a thousand infected messages in the last 24 hours -- apparently, the bug also sends them as me -- I have killed that account for good.

About is having this problem in spades. Since we're the 11th largest/most popular site on the Internet (according to the latest Nielsen ratings), since our e-mails are plastered *everywhere* because we're encouraged to interact with our readers, and because all of our e-mails follow the form sitename.guide@about.com, we've been getting millions of these things. Even with our spam filters, etc., our e-mail is behind about an hour. It's not fun and I can only imagine how much e-mail I'd get if I was one of the more famous guides (I've gotten about as much as you have, by the sounds of it).

Plus I'm normally immune from most of these things because I use Linux.

Mike

http://economics.about.com
Ultimately, I think the plan for the remainder of the season should be to determine exactly what you have or don't have even if that means damaging trade value.

I'd keep him. He's cheap and even as a worst-case scenario he's a good backup outfielder who can give Wells a day off once or twice a month. He's useful to have around as a backup outfielder who can play 3 positions, defensive replacement, pinch runner, and righty bat off the bench. Plus injuries are inevitable, and as the bullpen has shown us that you can never have enough depth.

Mike

I agree Nigel. Johnson clearly over-performed in the beginning and even if a few teams would employ him as more than a fourth ourfielder, I doubt his trade return value would be very high.

Reed Johnson is a nice player. The Blue Jays have more outfielders than they can effectively use and critique. That's his problem. It shouldn't be Keilty's or Werth's.

Mike, I agree with all the things you say about Johnson. I just think that Kielty and Johnson offer very similar skill sets and I think Kielty is probably the better player. So long as the Jays have no better alternatives they both should stay because they are cheap, but ultimately I do not see room from both Johnson and Kielty.

http://economics.about.com
So long as the Jays have no better alternatives they both should stay because they are cheap, but ultimately I do not see room from both Johnson and Kielty.

Where do you see everyone else then?

Wells is obviously in center. So we have to fill left and right. I'd put Cat in left and Kielty in right, and have Johnson as a 4th outfielder. If anyone is squeezed out, it's Werth. I don't think they'd want him as a 4th outfielder if they believe he has a future in MLB, but with a .251 MLEqA in AAA, I don't think he's earned a full time job in the bigs. I think if J.P. thinks he had, Werth would take Cat's job, and Frankie would be shipped off somewhere. Rios, Griffin, et al are still a couple years off.

Assuming Cat stays, next year's batters will include:

OF Wells (R)
OF Cat (L)
OF Kielty (essentially R given his platoon splits)
OF Johnson (R)
DH Phelps (R)
1B Delgado (L)
2B Hudson (essentially L given his platoon splits)
SS Woodward (R)
3B Hinske (L)
IF Berg (R)
C Not sure which two, but probably only two. Platoon likely.

So that's 12. The Jays could add one or two more position players. Bordick could be one. I'd really like to see a RH caddy for Hinske at 3rd (preferrably a good defensive one for when Doc is pitching) and a LH pinch hitter/5th outfielder. I don't really see where Werth fits in.

Mike

Switch... who wins the postseason awards?

MVP Boone (although slipping fast)
Cy Hudson
ROY Berroa

MVP Bonds
Cy Gagne
ROY Webb

Does Bonds' game winning homer last night in his first game back to end the Giants' skid convince skeptics that he, not Pujols, really is the MVP?

Mike:

Gross could be your 4th outfielder/LH pinch hitter.

http://economics.about.com
Mike:

Gross could be your 4th outfielder/LH pinch hitter.

Whoops. Mea Culpa, I forgot about Gross. He's doing quite well in AAA. Is there anywhere you can find his minor league platoon splits?

Mike

With his .270 MjEQA in AAA, he might even steal the everyday RF job away from Kielty.

Up until recently my thinking had been:

- let Cat go and spend the $2-4 million on pitching
- Wells in centre; Keitly in left full time; platoon Gross and whichever of Johnson or Werth in right

Now that I'm reaching the conclusion that Kielty may not be a full time player I'm thinking for next year only:

- Wells in centre; Cat/Keitly split in left; Gross in right
- against tough lefties you may have to use a Dave Berg or someone like that occasionaly with Wells and Kielty
- I'm do not think that you can carry a 5th outfielder unless you get the bullpen really sorted.

Ultimately, I think Kielty's inability to high righthanders may force the Jays to keep Cat rather than spending that money on pitching.

Wow, people have soured on Kielty fast. Remember when he was being talked about as the next Brian Giles? (Shouldn't somebody owe me money or something?) What happened to sample sizes?

I think if Gross has a good September with the big club, Cat will be a free man. (Although, don't the Jays control Catalanotto's contract for '04 even though he's only signed for '03? Someone explain that to me.) It's a shame, because I've really liked what I've seen from Cat, and would have liked him to be around for the "glory years" of 2004-2005 onwards.

I still think Kielty is a good and useful player. If he's getting 300 AB's a year mostly againt lefties, he's a very useful player, particularly at his salary. I still think it was a good haul for the remaining 2 months of Stewart's tenure.

I think the problem with getting rid of Cat if Gross has a good September call up is that the outfield would still only have two useful bats in the lineup against righthanders (aka most days). Under my plan for '04 you may have only two useful bats in the lineup against lefties (assuming Gross struggles against lefties) but that will be less frequent and you may as well go through the "education of Gross" (could be an interesting play or movie title) if you're in that situation anyway.

My understanding is that Cat has less than 6 years service and will still be under contract though arb-eligible.

Is there anywhere you can find his minor league platoon splits?

Can't find Syracuse splits. In New Haven, he was a little stronger batting lefty.

Jurgen,

Are you asking who SHOULD win the awards or who WILL win the awards? Because if you're asking who WILL win, I can't see Brandon Webb winning the ROY over Dontrelle Willis, and I can't see Hudson winning the Cy because of his low-win total, and Pujols has all this momentum because of his streak, and Smoltz has "name value," etc. I'm not going to be sucked into the "who should win argument," but at any rate that is a different argument from who WILL win.

Ultimately, I think Kielty's inability to high righthanders may force the Jays to keep Cat rather than spending that money on pitching.

Inability? Strong words. He's struggled this year but he hit righties rather well in 2002. The real deal is likely somewhere in the middle.

AFAIK, Cat signed a 1-year deal, but he is not free agent eligible in 2004 (I think he's going to barely miss the service time requirements).

Is Cat really that awful at 2B? With Adams and Hill charging fast, I think the Jays should get what they can for Orlando Hudson, and put up with some combination of Berg, Bordick at Cat at second base.

As for the OF, the true forgotten man is Werth. I know he hasn't quite proved himself in AAA yet, but I have a hunch he's going to be a tremendous power hitter in a few years -- something along the lines of Richie Sexson.

I'm also beginning to wonder about the future of Josh Phelps. If he doesn't start hitting soon, he's going to be pushed out...

Spicol, fair enough. I know small sample sizes apply, but his '01 numbers look a lot more like '03 than '02!

With limited space, I was kinda asking both. It's still early enough to believe that who should win will win.

Realistically, Matsui is probably still the front-runner for ROY. But Berroa has been just as good at the plate, plays a more important position, and won't suffer the "not really a rookie" prejudice. Plus the Royals are still on everybody's radar screen.

I think Hudson can win, given Halladay's recent "struggles" and Pedro's lack of innings. I guess Moose is his biggest threat right now.

I don't know who wins the AL MVP. Delgado had it, then Boone overtook him, and now Giambi, Garciaparra, and Rodriguez are all making serious noise.

Willis has struggled of late (6.10 ERA, 1.42 WHIP in 31 IP since the break), and people are really starting to open their eyes to Webb (2.68 ERA, 1.28 WHIP in 43.2 IP since the break). Willis was so ridiculously over-hyped that I'm guessing there will be some backlash against him--and rightfully so.

I don't think Smoltz's "name value" gives him much more of an advantage over Gagne. Gagne's got that streak, and if he finishes the year without a blown save, that'll look pretty freakin' impressive.

As for Pujols, well, I'm wondering if the Giants' struggles without Bonds has maybe made people reconsider the rightful MVP. It's easy to take him for granted, and I understand the temptation to give somebody else their due, but Bonds is carrying the SF offence almost single-handedly. I think that's becoming more and more obvious, and for MVP purposes, Bonds' might be the best thing for him. If the Cards don't make it to the post-season, it'll be tough to use the Tejada argument to justify Pujol's win over Bonds.

that was supposed to read:

...and for MVP purposes, Bonds' bereavement leave might be the best thing for him

Ok, I'd like to hear a debate on this one. Maybe should add this to the JP thread. Would you trade Vernon Wells for Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, and Bobby Crosby? Anyone else think that Wells may have nearly peaked, and that the time to cash in on him is now?

Prior to this season Kielty didn't have a large platoon split (870 vs 818 OPS). His average is brutal against them RHP, but he's still walking (.338 OBP) so I'm still willing to call it a slump/unlucky.

Jacko:

I strongly disagree with all three points.

1) Hudson is at least a very good defensive 2B (1st in RF, middle of the pack in ZR), and that's worth quite a bit on a team without a shortstop. As long as J.P. doesn't do something stupid and give him Alex Gonzalez money, he deserves to keep playing there. I wouldn't risk Cat's back on the infield turf.

2) Werth isn't some kid. He's older than Gross, and hasn't shown the same development this year. He's the odd man out for a reason.

3) I'd take my chances with Phelps developing that Sexson-like power over Werth. (Where did that comp come from anyways?) Like Eric, Josh has been troubled by injuries this year.

Who will/should win the AL awards?
MVP: Jason Giambi
CY: Andy Pettitte
ROY: Hideki Matsui

Who will/should win the NL awards?
MVP: Adam Dunn
CY: Chris Reitsma
ROY: Brandon Claussen (big second half coming)

Of course, the MVP of MLB overall, who won't win because of a mid-season change of teams, is Aaron Boone.

I am NOT biased. So there.

Anyone else think that Wells may have nearly peaked, and that the time to cash in on him is now?

Yeah, Wells will be 25 in December. He's probably only got another 10 productive years or so left in him. Dump him now.

Jurgen,

I was merely wearing my Professional Sports Journalist Hat -- if I gave the matter any real thought, I could come up with lists of both who I think should win and who will win. But, as I said, I'll stay out of that argument.

Ah, c'mon Jurgen. It's a fair question. I happen to agree with you, but there is the Cesar Cedeno-type precedent. He changed from Willie Mays into Chet Lemon pretty much overnight around the age of 27. And no injury supposedly involved, though as I recall there was some ugly incident where he accidentally shot and killed someone and that messed him up emotionally.

http://economics.about.com
Wow, people have soured on Kielty fast. Remember when he was being talked about as the next Brian Giles? (Shouldn't somebody owe me money or something?) What happened to sample sizes?

No kidding. One thing that I never get over is how quickly people change their opinion on players. A guy has a bad week and he goes from the Hall of Fame to "Why don't we wave this guy?". Some kid that nobody has ever heard of hits 2 homeruns in a spring training intersquad game and people have him ready for the All-Star game. The Jays are going to the World Series.. no wait, they're going to finish behind Tampa. The regulars at Batter's Box hardly do this, but have you been to alt.sports.baseball.tor-bluejays lately? Yeesh.

- I'm do not think that you can carry a 5th outfielder unless you get the bullpen really sorted.

I don't see why not. I mean, this year the Jays carried both Berg and Bordick for essentially the same backup infielder slot. The best way to get the bullpen sorted is to have less bullpen slot. It's easier to fill 6 slots rather than 8. I don't think only carrying 11 pitchers is unreasonable. I'm not going on some kind of Earl Weaver rant (yet).

Fourteen position players would allow for 2 catchers, 1 DH, 6 infielders, and 5 outfielders. Plus the outfielders also act as backup 1B/DHs.

Cheers,

Mike

Would you trade Vernon Wells for Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, and Bobby Crosby?

3 potential superstars, 1 who plays at a demanding position like shortstop, in exchange for 1 superstar? Every day of my life I would make this trade.

But Billy Beane wouldn't so it's not even worth discussing.

...there was some ugly incident where he accidentally shot and killed someone...

Well, as Michael Moore might say, it's probably a good thing that Wells is playing in Canada.

In all seriousness, if Alexis was hitting 342/.394/.500 in Syracuse, I might consider it. But in Dunedan it's only good for a .252 MjEQA. I think Wells will eventually shift to RF when Alexis establishes himself in 2006, leaving LF to either Gross or Griffin. But we're talking about one the best young hitters in all of baseball. Would you ask the Cards to make the same deal with Pujols?

Speaking of trading CFs at their primes, I'm surprised by the lack of criticism over the Torii Hunter resigning. It's looking worse and worse. Since Minnesota already had a MLB-ready CF backup in Jones (in addition to a glut of potential corner OF replacements), I would have traded Torii to someone like New York or SF for someone like Claussen (at least before they started courting Matsui) or Ainsworth, and then used the extra money to acquire Millwood from Atlanta by offering something a little more substantial than Estrada. I know hindsight is 20-20 blah blah blah, but it was a mistake for a team with a seriously limited budget to spend that money on 27 year old career year CF on a club loaded with MLB ready OF talent and considerable pitching woes and MI woes.

http://economics.about.com
Speaking of trading CFs at their primes, I'm surprised by the lack of criticism over the Torii Hunter resigning.

I generally avoid criticizing the Twins. Aaron does it so much better than I do, I just end up looking foolish and uninformed. :)

Mike

Would you ask the Cards to make the same deal with Pujols?

You're putting Wells and Pujols in the same category?

Wells' park adjusted EQA this year is .305. Pujols' is .365 and he's a year younger (until someone says otherwise). Wells has the defensive edge but not enough to make up for that kind of offensive gap. Vernon is a superstar but Pujols is elite.

And Rios is in AA, not A...he's that much closer to being a productive major league outfielder and to make up for any possible loss of Wells.

Would you trade Vernon Wells for Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, and Bobby Crosby?

3 potential superstars, 1 who plays at a demanding position like shortstop, in exchange for 1 superstar? Every day of my life I would make this trade.

Well, a bird in the hand is always worth two in the bush. But *three*? Hard to say no. But are these "potential superstars"?

Crosby has had a great year, though his 2002 wasn't impressive. His credentials are solid.

Harden we all know about... he has a very good chance of developing into a top starter. Probably less than 50%, but still as good as anyone out there.

Blanton's just OK; I ain't trading for anyone based on four starts in AA - lots of guys play well in the Midwest League, and his numbers at Kentucky were frankly blah. TINSTAAPP applies to Harden, but much more so to Blanton.

All in all, I'm not leaping at the chance to make the trade, but if my scouts were solidly behind those guys, then I'd make the deal.

We all know about the pride of Canada, so let's look at the others this year...

Crosby (SS):
.301/.385/.530 and 20 SB (83%) in AAA (.270 MjEQA)

Blanton (SP):
2.57 ERA, 133 IP, 9.74 K/9, 1.29 BB/9 in A
1.52 ERA, 29.2 IP, 7.89 K/9, 1.52 BB/9 in AA

Nothing to sneeze at but if the Jays can get Arnold and Griffin for Lopez, I'm holding out for way more for Wells.

I was merely wearing my Professional Sports Journalist Hat

Ha! Ha! Hey guys, come over here, check out the ugly hat this guy's wearing!

I don't mean to pick on you but it was Arnold and Griffin for Lopez and Jason Perry.

but if my scouts were solidly behind those guys, then I'd make the deal.

Great point. I think this is something that, frankly, some Box readers don't consider. I make that fictional trade in confidence because I know what scouts think of Harden, Blanton and Crosby (well, as much as one can know reading BA and other publications). A team shouldn't rely only on traditional scouting but if the scouting reports are solid and the statistical performance is there to back it up, then that's as much a prospect as a prospect can be.

Duh, of course Alexis is in New Haven. I like him a lot, I just don't think he's ready to play CF at the MLB level.

You mean .278/.354/.367 in single-A Jason Perry? He'll make a fine Scott Hatteberg replacement while the Jays keep playing Phelps.

OK, Wells isn't Pujols. Pujols is nearly double Wells in WS and VORP, and he's two years younger. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Wells put up a '03 Pujols year in '06. That's kinda what I meant.

...I just end up looking foolish and uninformed.

That's the slyest jab I've ever read. I still think the Twins dropped the ball.

Would you trade Vernon Wells for Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, and Bobby Crosby?

No way. Wells is two or three years away from his peak, and already combines the best of Devon White with the best of Joe Carter. He's signed to a long-term deal for reasonable money, he's intelligent, well-spoken and durable, and he could become the best player in the league (other than perhaps A-Rod) if he continues to grow at this pace. Teams win by keeping guys like Wells, not trading them away.

Now, if you're offering a Grade-A starting pitcher for a whole bunch of the Jays' prospects, I'd think it over...

1) Hudson is at least a very good defensive 2B (1st in RF, middle of the pack in ZR), and that's worth quite a bit on a team without a shortstop. As long as J.P. doesn't do something stupid and give him Alex Gonzalez money, he deserves to keep playing there. I wouldn't risk Cat's back on the infield turf.


Hudson has pretty nice D, but is it enough to overlook his mediocre hitting? His SLG is less than .400 and he's got a giant platoon split. He's certainly hitting like Alex Gonzalex.

I think you're missing my point. Hudson does not represent the future at 2B for the Jays, so why not get something for him in a trade? He is having a superficially good season at the plate, which, combined with his D, should be enough to bring back something nice.

As for Cat's durability at 2B -- point taken. 2B is a physically demanding position, but is it really all that harder on your back than OF?


2) Werth isn't some kid. He's older than Gross, and hasn't shown the same development this year. He's the odd man out for a reason.


Werth DOB: May 20, 1979
Gross DOB: Oct 21, 1979

Wow, a whole 4 months difference! Gross ain't no spring chicken either. They are around the same age, and Werth has spent more time in the major and in AAA. How does that make Gross the better prospect?

Gross obviously has a better batting eye, but hasn't been hitting for as much power.


3) I'd take my chances with Phelps developing that Sexson-like power over Werth. (Where did that comp come from anyways?) Like Eric, Josh has been troubled by injuries this year.


The trouble I have with Phelps is his relative worthlessness in the field. Werth has enough athleticism to play any OF spot. Phelps has had knee problems in the past, and this year he's had back problems. So, in addition to being limited to 1B, he's starting to look like he's injury prone as well.

Werth and Sexson are both tall, low-OBP slugging outfielders. The major difference is that Sexson hit AAA 1.5 years earlier than Werth, which, admittedly, means Werth's ceiling is lower.

Phelps, functionally, is looking about as useful as Matt LeCroy.

I totally agree, Dave.

Honestly, I'd be more likely to make that deal for Halladay than Wells, only because then all of the Jays young pitching would theoretically be ready at about the same time.

It seems crazy to keep Halladay and have nobody else around him, even if Roy can pitch 300 innings.

But if J.P. can sign another starter for next year--Millwood, Colon, Vazquez--then by all means keep Roy and go after Wild Card.

The other factors that have to be taken into consideration in deciding whether you would trade Wells are:

a) the 5 year contract, the cost certainty and the potentially below market value of that contract should not be taken lightly;

b) the organizations strengths and weaknesses. Right now the Jays are relatively long on pitching prospects (even taking the maxim TINSTAAPP into account) and the Jays are light on star quality hitting prospects.

All in all I do not follow the maxim that no player is untouchable and hence some deal might work but I think I would be very wary of trading Wells.

Four months, eh?

How does that make Gross the better prospect?

Gross (L)
.259 MjEQA (AA)
.270 MjEQA (AAA)

Werth (R)
.260 MjEQA (A)
.250 MjEQA (AAA)

That's how.

Look neither one is setting the world ablaze, but as Mike points out, the Jays will need another LH OF--regardless of whether Cat stays or goes.

As for Hudson v. Gonzalez...

Hudson (25)
.278/.337/.394 in 381 AB
9.6 VORP
11 WS

Gonzalez (30)
.232/.292/.416 in 440 AB
8.6 VORP
8 WS

Sure, if you can package Hudson to the Twins for Santana, obviously I'll take it. But I wouldn't trade him just to trade him.

I maintain that Jayson Werth is on the bubble with this organization, and I fully expect him to be dealt this winter as part of a package for pitching, if any is available. He's more Eli Marrero than Dale Murphy. And he's already lost his status as prime outfield prospect to Gabe Gross. Here's what Gross has done this season, his third in pro ball.

New Haven
84 G, 310 AB, .319/.423/.481, 52 R, 23 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 51 RBI, 52 BB, 53 K
Syracuse
40 G, 138 AB, .283/.393/.493, 19 R, 13 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 23 BB, 44 K

That's roughly an 895 combined OPS and 75/97 BB/K rate in 448 AB, and his power is increasing as the season goes on. I'm starting to think he could seriously contend for the starting right field job next year, if the opportunity is there. He should be in a Toronto uniform full-time no later than the All-Star Break, and he must be considered in any plans for the 2004 outfield. If he struggles against the tough lefties, well, that's why you keep Reed Johnson around.

I like Catalanotto too, and you'd want to reserve judgment till the season is in the books; there's six weeks left to play. But his OPS is down to 778 and his BB/AB rate is the worst it's been in four years. He turns 30 next April and he's always been fragile; at 426 ABs, he only needs 40 more for a new career high; this is only his second season with more than 300 at-bats. It's time to sell high: sign him to a one-year deal and trade him as soon as Gross is ready for full-time work. Bobby Kielty is younger, he's better than this, and he'll play his way out of this slump. In two years, Kielty will be a valuable trade commodity; Frank will not.

As for Alexis Rios, be patient. He's still only in Double-A, his BB/AB rate has fallen below 1/10, and he's going to need at least one full year at Triple-A before he's ready for the big leagues. John-Ford Griffin was already a step behind even before his injury. Here's your 2004 Jays outfield:

LF: Catalanotto/Gross (Gabe will probably play right)
CF: Wells
RF: Kielty
4th OF: Johnson

Oh yeah, Wells was also supposedly floated in a trade possibility for Mark Teixeira and two of the Rangers' young pitchers. Here's who I'd trade Vernon Wells for: nobody.

http://economics.about.com
Hudson has pretty nice D, but is it enough to overlook his mediocre hitting? His SLG is less than .400 and he's got a giant platoon split. He's certainly hitting like Alex Gonzalex.

The guy is around 300/360/460 in his career against righties, and will probably only get better as he ages. Why not platoon him with a guy like Mike Bordick who is 290/340/470 against lefties? (I'd have said Berg, but he doesn't have much of a platoon split). Given the defense of the two players, that's a platoon I'd take in a second.

Jurgen: Not really taking a jab at anyone. I'm not that clever or sly. :)

Mike

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
The things you miss when your server goes down for ninety minutes...

I'd be very leery about dealing Wells, especially for two young pitchers. That's a ligament and a labrum away from Wells-for-Crosby.

I think this scenario resembles the Randy Johnson-to-Houston deal. Seattle received 3 young players (Garcia, Halama and Guillen), all of whom have contributed at the big league level, but their combined value has paled compared to that of Johnson. Bill James has made the point that it's exceedingly difficult to break even when dealing a star or superstar. Prospect sheen is a very fickle thing. Alex Gonzalez was once a Grade A Prospect. And weren't Ryan Anderson and Rick Ankiel once considered in the same rarified air as Rich Harden and Joe Blanton?

Kielty's struggles amount to a 5-40 August. No one should be judged on the basis of their last 40 trips.

Hudson should consider batting lefty full-time. It's hard to believe that his numbers vs LH would suffer.

I believe that Wells is nearly at his peak, which explains the difference of opinion. I recall seeing a BP study that confirmed a player is nearly as likely to have his peak season at 25 or 26 as he is at 27.

But ok, if we are going to assume that Wells continues to improve and ends up in Pujols type territory by 2006, let's also assume that Rich Harden turns Mark Priorish or Roy Oswaltish and Bobby Crosby turns Edgar Renteriaish (circa 2002-2003), minus the speed and some defense. Blanton just has to turn out to be average to make this deal a success in my mind because aside from player contributions, Harden, Crosby and Blanton would all be under control of the Jays for 5.5 or 6 years. Vernon, only 3. Vernon becomes a FA smack dab in the middle of when the Jays should be amazing. ALSO, you're filling organizational holes, namely pitching, but to a lesser degree, shortstop. Yes, Adams and Hill are in the organization but neither are full time major league players until 2006 or so. Crosby could be the starting shortstop for the Jays next season.

Sure Nigel, the Jays are relatively long on pitching prospects but how many are going to be actually making a positive contribution by 2005? Maybe Arnold. Maybe McGowan. Maybe Bush, by which time he might again be a reliever. But that's about it. The rest won't even get called up until 2005, and will still be adjusting to the major league level that year. Harden would be a key cog in the rotation, again, next season.

I'll now stop discussing what I said wasn't worth discussing an hour ago. ;) I suppose that what happens with Delgado's contract will possibily change my mind on whether or not it's intelligent to trade Wells...

Jordan, I agree that Werth has lost his status as #1 OF prospect (but to Gross, or Rios?) but comparing him to Gross, he doesn't look that bad. Werth is only five months younger than Gross, has always outhit him until this year, and Gross's advantage this year isn't that much... by MLEqA, it's about .263 to .251. Gross moves well ahead, in my view, because of his athleticism and late development... but Werth doesn't look so bad.

Good pitching matchup tonight in PAwtucket, by the way... Lidle versus Bruce Chen.

Regarding dealing Wells... That's some great dialogue and analysis. Personally, I'd be inclined to do this deal. I'm no sabermetrics scholar, but rather a market analyst and a believer in buying low and selling high. Man, I love this site. Great job guys.

Wow, a whole 4 months difference! Gross ain't no spring chicken either. They are around the same age, and Werth has spent more time in the major and in AAA. How does that make Gross the better prospect?

There's age and then there's professional maturity and they are two different things. Werth has now been playing pro ball for 7 years, including 5 years at AA or above. Gross, has only been playing pro for 3 years. Given how close they are in age, I'm far more likely to consider Gross as the better prospect because he's come this far in less time. He's more likely to continue his development while Werth is close to his peak.

Gross moves well ahead, in my view, because of his athleticism and late development... but Werth doesn't look so bad

Craig, I don't disagree ... were Gross not right there (and had Jayson not been injured), I think Werth would have gotten a longer look in RF this season and might have developed better as a result. But I think JP decided a while back that Werth wasn't part of the Jays' future, for whatever reason, and the yo-yo treatment that occured this year seems to confirm that.

Werth's advantage is his combination of power and speed, particularly for a guy who wouldn't embarrass himself in centrefield. His disadvantage is that he doesn't have oodles of either; he looks like a .275-hitting 20/20 guy who strikes out a lot. That's not the worst thing in the world, especially if he can do it at catcher or in center, but it's also not as special as Wells is and as Gross promises to be.

Here's a more interesting discussion, IMO: Werth or Kielty?

Kielty: 27 years old, .278/.378/.465 minor league line in 1077 ABs, 202/252 BB/K rate, 23 SB
Werth: 24 years old, .265/.340/.411 minor league line in 2113 ABs, 339/485 BB/K rate, 103 SB (all figures up to 2002)

Werth has been playing professionally since he was 18, Kielty since he was 23; hence the PT discrepancies. Also, Werth's power didn't emerge till he arrived in the Toronto system. JP loves OBP guys and that's why Kielty will stay while Werth gets dealt, but Jayson's youth, speed and defensive abilities should give at least a moment's pause for thought.

I believe that Wells is nearly at his peak, which explains the difference of opinion. I recall seeing a BP study that confirmed a player is nearly as likely to have his peak season at 25 or 26 as he is at 27.

The trick, of course, is trying to guess which players are peaking early and which are peaking late. I'm no scout, but I'd venture that Wells isn't near his peak as a hitter. His power has taken a big step forward this year, and a somewhat unexpected one - I don't know anybody who predicted that he would be among the league's HR leaders this year, or that he would be an All-Star. I claim that he'll be at his peak when his stats start to look similar from year to year (as, say, Stewart's did).

I suspect, though, that Wells will peak as a fielder before he peaks as a hitter, and that he might be close to his defensive peak right now. He's built like a tank - he's got a wide body, like Carter, rather than a lean body like Devo - so you've got to wonder how long he will retain his speed. I suppose that a lot of Wells's success in center is due to his getting good jumps, and that awareness is not likely to vanish. But Andruw Jones is apparently already declining in centre field, so you've got to wonder whether V-Dub will, too.

And one more, while I'm here:

JP loves OBP guys and that's why Kielty will stay while Werth gets dealt, but Jayson's youth, speed and defensive abilities should give at least a moment's pause for thought.

I'd like to see Werth get a full month, at least, of regular playing time, just so we can see what the Jays have here. Pessimistically, I point out that DeWayne Wise has youth, speed and defensive abilities on his side, and even has some power, but can't actually hit.

He's built like a tank - he's got a wide body, like Carter, rather than a lean body like Devo - so you've got to wonder how long he will retain his speed.

Carter was pretty fast too in his youth.

Dave, I'm agreeing with everything you're posting today.

I still think Wells will be the best RF in baseball in '06.

I agree with Jordan and Jim, who both made excellent posts.

There's another reason not to trade Wells. The Jays swapped security for cost certainty when they signed that long-term deal: Vernon knew that although he might be considerably underpaid in 2006, he would be well-compensated to be with his wife and daughter in Toronto in 2006, come hell or high water.

The Hinske and Wells deals were real coups for the Jays franchise. It might have a seriously adverse effect on the Jays' ability to lock up players like...oh, I don't know, Roy Halladay...for a similarly reasonable, cost-certain deal (though for a higher yearly salary) if J.P. develops a reputation for swapping excellent players with excellent character for potentially shinier trinkets just months into the long-term commitment the team made.

I'm also less dubious than many about Beane's willingness to do this deal. If Beane made this deal at the deadline, he'd (a) win the 2003 World Series, and (b) add yet another bargain-valued long-term-signed superstar to his nucleus.

As a Jays fan, it just feels wrong, even with Harden involved.

Just because I'm grumpy and bitter and a contrarian, I'd like to mention that I don't agree with anyone today.

I know his name doesn't come up in Baseball-Reference comps, but I think you can find a lot of similarities between a young Vernon Wells and a young Larry Walker. (Colorado or not, Walker would be HOF bound if not for those nagging injuries.)

Larry didn't start walking until about age 26 (80/76 BB/K), and Vernon too is starting to show development there.

Jurgen:


Four months, eh?


Actually five, I miscounted :)

But you get the drift. Because Werth came out of high school and Gross came out of college, they are almost the same age. It only seems like Werth has been around forever.


Gross (L)
.259 MjEQA (AA)
.270 MjEQA (AAA)

Werth (R)
.260 MjEQA (A)
.250 MjEQA (AAA)


Sure, Gross has been the better hitter this year (Gross hasn't spen that much time at AAA, so I take his AA numbers to be more indicative of where he's at developmentally).


Look neither one is setting the world ablaze, but as Mike points out, the Jays will need another LH OF--regardless of whether Cat stays or goes.


Another good point -- lineup balance is always nice to have.


As for Hudson v. Gonzalez...

Hudson (25)
.278/.337/.394 in 381 AB
9.6 VORP
11 WS

Gonzalez (30)
.232/.292/.416 in 440 AB
8.6 VORP
8 WS


Not sure what you're implying here. Gonzalez put up similar numbers as a 25 y.o. as well. What I see in Hudson this year is a .700 OPS infielder with good defensive skills. Hudson's age suggests he has room to improve, but we all recall how long we spent waiting for Gonzalez to break through.


Sure, if you can package Hudson to the Twins for Santana, obviously I'll take it. But I wouldn't trade him just to trade him.


Well, they are pretty desperate to find a replacement for Luis o-for-threevas. And they are still basking in the glow of the Kielty/Stewart deal.

Now, on to Jordan:

[David Letterman]
Jurgen, Jordan...Jordan, Jurgen!
[/David Letterman]

Just one comment -- with Gross being lefthanded, wouldn't Werth make a better platoon partner than Cat?

Call me stubborn, but I'm just not prepared to give up on Werth just yet. He's versatile and has good power potential. Why run him out of town like a second rate Adam Piatt?

(incidentally, I believe Piatt will hit his stride in Tampa in 2004)

Back to the MVP debate for a minute -- keeping in mind I'm not commenting one way or another -- ESPN.com has floated the idea of Ichiro being a contender for the award.

if J.P. develops a reputation for swapping excellent players with excellent character for potentially shinier trinkets just months into the long-term commitment the team made.

Great point.

As a Jays fan, it just feels wrong, even with Harden involved.

Significantly less great point. ;) But I understand what you mean.

Again, Beane would NEVER do this deal. Harden and Crosby were both considered to be untouchable before July 31st. A team might be able to pry one, but not both away from the A's.

Incidentally, I believe Piatt will hit his stride in Tampa in 2004.

I guess it's time for me to put on my Cynical A's Fan Hat for a bit and comment that Piatt will not hit his stride in Tampa in 2004. Piatt's development really took a hit when he came down with menongitis, and, while that's no fault of Piatt's, you can't just ignore that he's shown very little power since coming back from the injury, and the fact he really didn't do much at the show before he was healthy. He had surprisingly little power when he he first came up: even balls he really teed off on would just die at the warning track. Also, his only star-level minor-league season came at AA Midland -- the Coors Field of the minor leagues -- tells me he's more Todd Greene than ... well, I would say Brian Giles, but I don't think anyone's thinking Piatt can be even half that good. It's too bad Piatt got hurt, because we'll never know if he would have flopped on his own "merits" or if the injury derailed his career -- or even if the train was on the way to anything at all.

Next hat?

Jim-TBG, I agree about the 5 for 40, but I'm arguing that Kielty can be judged on nearly 500AB's batting left handed with an OPS just above .700 and a slugging % of about .370. That is not enough for a corner outfielder. But this is only as a left handed hitter. I reiterate he's great as a platoon partner and should stay.

That should read "before he was injured" ...

Jacko:

Yes, I was implying Hudson has room to grow, but also that he's already not so bad considering he's actually a very good defensive 2B.

I don't think the problem was ever Gonzalez per se. It was his contract.

I wouldn't mind keeping Hudson around provided J.P. pays him what he's worth--no more than about $4 over 3 years--until the kids are ready.

Gitz:

Just when I thought you were out, they pull you back in.

Ichiro's a worthy candidate. But A-Rod is starting to look like the man again.

Pessimistically, I point out that DeWayne Wise has youth, speed and defensive abilities on his side, and even has some power, but can't actually hit.

Dave, that's very true. Wise, though, never could hit: he has more pro seasons batting under .240 (5) than above .260 (2). The fact that he had a 92/239 BB/K rate in 1,266 at-bats when he was Rule-Fived as a 21-year-old speaks volumes about Gord Ash's philosophies on baseball talent.

Gonzalez is a problem when he's the #2 hitter in corked bat land. But #8 or 9 with the current Jays, he wouldn't be such a hindrace.

(Putting on Objective Blue Jays Fan Hat)

As others have said on this board, it's too early to cudgel Bobby Kielty into a platoon role. Let him get a full season in Toronto, see if he's more than fourth OF material, then go from there. From what I've seen, Kielty's a hard-nosed baseball player: he's Eric Owens with walks, more power, and better defensively. If Owens can carve out a career, and even play regularly for a spell, then so can Kielty. Now, I'm of the mind that Kielty is not going to be even a minor star, but let's let him prove that before he's shipped out of town like a second-class Jose Cruz Jr.

Gitz, you're finally rockin' some stylish headgear!

http://economics.about.com
Jim-TBG, I agree about the 5 for 40, but I'm arguing that Kielty can be judged on nearly 500AB's batting left handed with an OPS just above .700 and a slugging % of about .370

He was 276/374/444 prior to this year and he's been in an awful slump this year batting 218/338/310 vs righties.

I'd guess that next year he'd be around 250/350/390. It isn't bad, but I'd certainly want a lefty caddy for him against tough righties.

OPS is a near-worthless stat for looking at players like Kielty, as it grossly underweights walks, where Kielty gets a lot of his value.

Mike

Just one comment -- with Gross being lefthanded, wouldn't Werth make a better platoon partner than Cat?

Jacko, a slight miscommunication -- the slash was meant to represent that Gross would eventually replace Cat, not platoon with him. I'm actually happy to see Frank play against all but the toughest lefties; historically, his OBP against southpaws was acceptable. Gross may need some help breaking in against lefties, though; they become seriously tough to hit in the major leagues, much more so than in the minors.

We shouldn't be too quick to platoon young players -- a lot of people (including his manager) thought Shawn Green could never play full-time.

Mike, the only real hat I wear is the red Canadian one I bought while I was in Vancouver for Canada Day 2002.

Well, that and my Official Ex-Patriate Beret a friend picked up for me in Paris. But that's it, I swear.

Larry didn't start walking until about age 26 (80/76 BB/K), and Vernon too is starting to show development there.

Vernon is slightly improved but I don't see the Walker comp. Larry walked in 12% of his minor league plate appearances and is now up to 11.6% of his major league PAs. He's improved to where his minor league stats indicated he should be. Vernon walked in only 8.5% of his minor league PAs and has only walked in 5% of his major league appearances so far. Even if he starts walking like he did in the minors, Vernon will take about 25 fewer walks than Walker.

I want to believe. Really, I do! I just can't see it. Somebody give me some good, solid evidence that says Vernon Wells will continue to improve and end up in Albert Pujols territory.

BTW, I forgot to mention I took IW out of those walk rates.

Piatt's development really took a hit when he came down with menongitis, and, while that's no fault of Piatt's, you can't just ignore that he's shown very little power since coming back from the injury, and the fact he really didn't do much at the show before he was healthy.

Piatt may yet be able to make it all the way back - though the development time may be lost forever, of course. I came down with viral meningitis in the fall of 2001, an ugly but not life-threatening case. It has taken me the better part of two years to get back (from a mental faculties standpoint) to where I was before I got sick; I finally realized just this summer that I'm no longer (as far as I can tell) suffering any ill effects in terms of mental acuity - I think even my stammering has gone back to normal amounts.

So it is a pretty slow recovery time, in terms of getting everything back in ship shape.

Well, Shawn Green isn't far from Albert Pujols, and he's one of Wells' top ten comps (according to Baseball-Reference). So is Carlos Beltran.

And even if this is the best that Vernon Wells ever gets, it's pretty damn good--and there's no evidence that he's due to slip anytime soon.

I wouldn't over-rely on Baseball Reference's otherwise excellent Player Comps for Wells at this stage -- the site only uses his stats through 2002. Wait till November or so to see how his career models with the 2003 breakthrough. I think we'll be even more impressed.

Jurgen, no one is suggesting he'll slip. I'm asking for evidence he'll get better as you suggest. He 'might' get better, as Green did, but I wouldn't call that evidence.

And I'm intentionally ignoring your Beltran comp, because Beltran is not elite or even a superstar. Merely good.

What's our record for a number of comments?

Spicol, incidentally, pointed to one issue... it's true Wells might get better, but if this is his peak year, and it's possible, he's going to get *worse*. But Spicol, eltran is "good", but he and Vernon Wells are the kinds of players that, liberally mixed with a couple of superstars, win championships. Or heck, even without... the Angels did well last year with a bunch of Beltran/Wells types.

Craig, I think the draft thread generated well over 100 comments.

Oh, and nice point about Beltran. While he's not necessarily an elite player, he is very good, with a tremendous blend of skills; there's nothing he does at a superstar level (discounting stolen bases), but he does everthing very well. If Wells plays as well as Beltran is right now the next five years, cheers to the Jays.

I don't know who is in the category of "superstar" position players (are we basing this strictly on stats, or stats + pub?), but I've got to believe that Beltran is knocking on the door.

He's 26, and in the last 3 years (including 2003) he's been a perennial 30/30 candidate, putting up a .285/.360/.510 line as a very good defensive CF. Now, I'm cheating a bit with the 30/30, since he's never actually hit 30 HR, but he's been 24/29/21 (in 103 games) in the last 3 years, with 31/35/30 SB, so I think it's a fair comment.

Maybe my group of superstars is too big, but when I look around at the CF position, I don't see many better, particularly at that age.

And Wells looks like he's already nearing the point where a move to the corner is appropriate. He really looks like he went Junior Griffy in a hurry on us (i.e., his legs and trunk got really thick all of a sudden).

Would you trade Vernon Wells for Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, and Bobby Crosby?

I would trade Wells for almost nobody, because I still firmly believe he will be the best outfielder, in the AL anyway, of his generation (the only competition in the majors will be Pujols). Like I've said, I firmly believe he's gonna be a Hall of Famer. A career average around .300, about 480 homers, I'm gonna say 2 MVP's and a couple of Gold Gloves (deserving or not...as a very good defender whoc an mash like I think he will, he'll get at least one).

There aren't many teams who could put forth a better package though. Unless we're talking Prior, Angel Guzman (sic? ... I read about him a few times this year. I am almost certain that is his name) and a good, young position player (I don't know the Cubs system). That might do it for me....

I first made the HOF prediction during last season (around the All-Star Break). I'm not just jumping on this huge season. He should have some huge RBI totals as well, if the Jays offense continues to be this good for a while.

I would trade Wells for almost nobody

I'll take it!

- BB

'Billy' - I mean, well, what I really mean is... D'oh! The moral of the story, as always, is that I'm an idiot. Let's replace that line with "Very few teams could present a package of players enticing enough for me to trade VDub."

It's no knock to Beltran. In my mind, Beltran and Wells are comparable today with Vernon more powerful and better on defense. But Beltran isn't in that Pujols/Green category yet either, and few are, so to include him in the conversation is misleading and confusing.

That's the contention of some though, that Wells will soon get into Pujols/Green territoy and I just don't see it. I don't think his skills will stretch that far. He's already exceeding the expectations of most scouts and his command of the strike zone isn't indicative of dominance. Someone already mentioned that few people expected him to hit for this much power, especially so soon. So, if the scouts don't forecast further improvement (as they did for Green) and the stats don't suggest further improvement (in terms of better walk rates or hitting for a high average in the minors) then where is this faith coming from?

As a fan, I'd love to be wrong here. Somebody, anybody, please make a strong case!

I don't have a strong case (or any case for that matter) I just really like Vernon Wells. If he develops consistent 35 HR power, even, he could be the Big Unit of hitters. The wide, strong body combined with the way he sort of peers out from under his helmet in the Batter's Box... He just looks intimidating.

Spicol:

I'm saying that if Vernon Wells stays exactly the same player he is now (and doesn't even get better, which by any reasonable analysis he almost certainly will) for the length of his current (bargain) contract, he's worth keeping over those three unproven quantities. He'll be the best RF in baseball by 2006, winning the first of several MVPs.

And what the hell do you expect from Crosby if by your standards Beltran is merely "good"? Bring peace to the Middle East? Beltran is currently 7th in AL Win Shares--and he missed a bunch of games early in the season.

Jordan:

I agree, but I felt it worthwhile quoting exactly because those comps came before this "breakout" season.

I'm saying that if Vernon Wells stays exactly the same player he is now...he's worth keeping over those three unproven quantities.

Ok, that's just a personal choice, but we've moved beyond that...I want to know why you're convinced he'll improve.

He's already exceeding the expectations of most scouts and his command of the strike zone isn't indicative of dominance.

Spicol, get your nose out of that book. Watch Vernon Wells play. Consider how much he's improved from last year to this year. The power is already there--screw what was projected when. By the same rationale, Pujols is due for a collapse because he was never projected to compete with Barry Bonds for MVP. He's already improving his strike zone judgement, much faster than someone like Guerrero or Soriano or Garciaparra (who similarly could all hit balls hard out of the zone). He's a first round draft pick who made it to the majors at age 20, and was here to stay by age 23. Guys like that tend not to be flashes in the pan.

If Beane can see the value in a Guillen, I'm amazed you want to undervalue Wells.

Somebody call PETCO... what does BP say about Wells?

Jurgen, I can't begin to tell you everything that's wrong with that post (especially the strike zone judgement part) so I won't bother.

I just want to know what makes you believe Vernon is going to progress from his 307/353/553 today toward the 371/438/690 of Pujols. It's an absolutely huge leap. If it's just blind faith, then say so. I'll accept that.

From TSN.ca's Scouting Report:

Going into camp After a couple of years as a highly anticipated prospect, Wells lived up to the hype and then some in his first full season. He's the real deal and a fixture for the Jays in center field.
Assets You could almost save the money on two other outfielders with the kind of range Wells has. He has a very strong arm as well. He knows the strike zone very well for a player his age and is growing as a power hitter.
Flaws Has never put up the kind of stolen-base numbers that he's capable of. He's a little too prone to the strikeout and not prone enough to taking a walk.
Career potential A steady star in the Garret Anderson mold.

That lousy Vernon. He so totally did not draw a walk in the fifth inning.

For discussion: Given Wells' overwhelming defensive superiority to Pujols, how close does he have to come to Pujols' OPS to match his value?

I say 75-90 points. He's not there yet, but I share Jurgen's optimism that he can do it.

Oh, please. Humour me. How else am I supposed to learn?

Soriano age 24 ('02)
IsoPwr: .247
K//BB: 6.83

Garciappara age 24 ('97)
IsoPwr: .261
K/BB: 1.88

Guerrero age 24 ('00)
IsoPwr: .319
K/BB 1.28

Wells age 24 ('03)
IsoPwr: .242
K/BB: 1.94

Wells is well ahead of Soriano, and slightly behind Garciappara (obviously, I mispoke on Vlad). Here's the rest of Wells career:

Wells (A)
IsoPwr: .171
K/BB: 1.54

(AA)
IsoPwr: .179
K/BB: 1.25

(AAA)
IsoPwr: .179
K/BB: 2.05

2002 (AL)
IsoPwr: .182
BB/K: 3.13

I guess you're thinking that the power spike is an anomaly, whereas most of think it's due to a young man finally filling out. I'm also assuming he'll continue to progress and find the BB/K rate he had at A. If that's the case, a .350/400/600 season shouldn't be out of the question by '06--perhaps a little short of Pujols '03 (more in line with Pujols '01), but pretty impressive.

Pujols (A)
IsoPwr: .233
BB/K: 1.00

2001 (NL)
IsoPwr: .281
K/BB: 1.35

2002 (NL)
IsoPwr: .247
K/BB: .96

2003 (NL)
IsoPwr: .319
K/BB: .87

Spicol, since most people believe that very good 24 year players turn into excellent 27 year old players, I'd like to see your evidence that Wells will fail and he's worth bailing on. FYI, Wells is already showing better IsoPwr and BB/K rates than TSN's comp, Mr. G. Anderson (a career .182 and 2.94, respectively)

Are the Jays supposed to be rebuilding forever?

Lastly, I mentioned Larry Walker...

Here's Larry's age 24 season (back in '91):
IsoPwr: .168
K/BB: 2.43

Larry hit .290/.349/.458 that year.

Looks similar to Vernon's age 24 season (.307/.350/.553)--aside from Vernon's massive power advantage.

Here are the rest of Walker's minor league and Montreal stats:

(A)
IsoPwr: .246
K/BB: 2.24

(AA)
IsoPwr: .247
K/BB: 1.79

(AAA)
IsoPwr: .161
K/BB: 1.78

1990 (NL)
IsoPwr: .193
K/BB: 2.29

1992 (NL)
IsoPwr: .205
K/BB: 2.37

1993 (NL)
IsoPwr: .204
K/BB: .95

1994 (NL)
IsoPwr: .265
K/BB: 1.57

All of this makes me think Wells is more than capable of matching, if not bettering, Walker's '94 season (.322/394/.587). Unlike Larry, I doubt Vernon will ever get an OBP over .400 unless he hits .340, but the power should continue to increase for another couple of years.

obviously, I mispoke on Vlad

Yes, you did. And that's what I was referring to.

I'm a firm believer that it's very hard for a player to show walk rates in the majors far beyond what he ever showed in the minors. Not impossible, but hard. As I said earlier, Vernon walked in 8.5% of his plate appearances. If he progresses, and returns to that level in the majors from the 6% he's showing today, that's an improvement of about 18 walks over 700 plate appearances. I think this is realistic. I actually expect him to return to that level over the next couple of years. I'll even give you that he'll put up a 10% walk rate, which he showed in the minors in 1997 and 1999. That's an improvement of 28 walks over 700 plate appearances.

I guess you're thinking that the power spike is an anomaly, whereas most of think it's due to a young man finally filling out.

Not at all. I don't think his power spike has been an anomaly. I just believe that he won't improve upon this year. A .246 IsoPwr is very impressive in itself. The Garret Anderson comparison you sourced is pretty much bang on with what most people thought his power potential was. It's actually watching Vernon (and not my book) that leads me to this conclusion. He hits ball so damn hard, line drives without a lot of loft, that any more HR seems unlikely. Look at Vernon's HR...they aren't of the booming, lots of hang time variety that Phelps or Delgado hit. They're screaming out of the ballpark, so quickly that you better not be looking down when he hits one.

The question comes down to whether he can improve on his batting average enough to inflate his OBP into Pujols territory. Here's what I project Wells to put up over the next few seasons, incorporating the improvement to a 10% walk rate and a few more HR:

AB   H  2B 3B HR BB SF HBP AVG OBP SLG
606 186 43  3 36 70  7  5  307 377 566

Again, this is great but not Pujols. If Vernon collected enough extra singles to hit 350 as you suggest, the rest of the scenario staying constant, he's now hitting 350/417/609. Outstanding. Exceptional. Still not Pujols (185 OPS 'points' lower than AP's 2003 season) but as Mike D said, I think his defense makes up some of the difference.

So, can Vernon hit 350?

No, I really don't think he can. Pujols is hitting 371 this season but then again, he always hit for average. He hit for average in JuCo (461), the Jayhawk League (343), the Midwest League (324) and the AFL (323). He hit 329 at 21 years old. His improvement to 371, while significant, is not out of the ordinary.

Vernon, on the other hand, hit 307, 285, 334, 243 and 281 from 1997 to 2001. To suggest he could hit 350 or even 330, when he only approached that number once in his minor league career, is extremely wishful thinking. He could do it, it's just really unlikely. He's never hit consistently for a high average and the guys who do do so consistently almost always have a better control of the strike zone, as indicated by BB/K, than Vernon has.

To sum up, I think he'll improve his walk rate some, might hit a few more HR but won't hit for a much higher average than he is today and overall, he still won't be in Pujols territory.

Spicol, since most people believe that very good 24 year players turn into excellent 27 year old players, I'd like to see your evidence that Wells will fail and he's worth bailing on.

I'm betting on pretty much the status quo and you're suggesting change is-a-comin so the burden of proof has always been on you. That said, I think I've made fair statements in all of the above and the anecdotal and minor league evidence points me to one conclusion. I don't think that Wells will fail, just fail to improve to a Pujols level. And I certainly don't think he's worth bailing on, or that he'll regress anytime soon. He's close to his peak and he can stay at that level for a few years. Don't get me wrong, that will be outstanding production. I'm not down on Vernon at all. I do think I'm realistic though.

Spicol:

I already calmed down to note that Pujols' '01 season is a more likely projection. I still think Wells is capable of Pujols '03, but it would require an increase in both power and discipline. I think the former is likely, the latter less so.

I never said Wells would bash 50 HR, but I'll go on the record for 40 with at least as many doubles. I don't think Wells will be a career .330 hitter, but if he's making more contact with all those hot shots I could see him having a .350 season.

I'm betting on pretty much the status quo and you're suggesting change is-a-comin so the burden of proof has always been on you.

Interesting, considering most of the posts agree with me. You'd think just the opposite. Nonetheless, until I put the finishing touches on my time machine, I'm not going to convince you that Wells will improve. I just think the evidence and his comparisons show just that. Given the way Garciappara and Walker developed (and Shawn Green and Carlos Beltran), I think it's much more likely Wells will get a lot better before he gets worse. I agree Wells should better his K/BB rate in the majors, and he's already shown much more power. I think he's already surpassed Garret Anderson. Will he reach Pujols '03? I don't know. Is it possible? Sure. What's likely? Walker '94, or Green '99 or '01. I wouldn't want to give that up.

I think the puzzling part of all of this was that you'd trade a young, cheap .900 OPS CF--regardless of whether he improves (we seem to agree that he'll be at least this good for another couple of years)--for two minor league pitchers and a SS. Harden's obviously a potential ace, but the Jays already have one. They need two or three more starters who can be merely very good (like Arnold and McGowan project to be). And when you dismissed Carlos "career .824 currently .912 OPS" Beltran as "merely good", it made me very confused as to what you expected from "potential superstar" Crosby.

Are the Jays supposed to be rebuilding forever?

I think it's a function of the endless desire on behalf of fans to believe that prospects are better than they really are. If you play in an auction Strat or DMB keeper league, you'll notice this; young players without a game of MLB experience are bid up to completely unreasonable levels that no rational analysis can justify.

Hope springs eternal, and the grass is always greener on the other side.

Interesting... the Expos signed Todd Zeile, a pretty big improvement at third over what they have now.

I would never trade a young star playing a key defensive position for a couple of promising young pitchers -pitchers tend to breakdown.

Crosby isn't a better prospect than Adams or Hill, so why he would be a particular asset for Toronto right now is an open question.