According to Richard Griffin in the Star today, "The odds of Escobar actually signing before the season ends are as slim as Keon Clark. The odds of Escobar signing with the Jays after the season ends are even slimmer."
Griffin projects Kelvim, at 27, to have 59 wins (and 58 saves) after this season, then makes some interesting comparisons:
Matt Morris, with 61 wins at age 29, earns $10.5 million. Bartolo Colon, with 85 wins at age 30, was given $8.25 million. Freddy Garcia, 60 wins at age 27, is making $6.9 million. Kevin Millwood, with 75 wins at age 29, is earning $9.9 million. Eric Milton, with 56 wins at age 28, is making $6 million. But none of them had bullpen time to cut into their W-totals.
This does support the idea that he's become too valuable on the open market for the Jays to do anything but offer him arbitration -- which he insists he won't accept -- and settle for the draft picks.
The question remains, would you give Kelvim Escobar $20 million or more for three years? Since becoming a starter again, he's been reasonably consistent and the hand numbness that plagued him after five or six innings when he was last in the rotation seems to be over. If you believe that the last three months indicates a "new and improved" pitcher whose approach is finally catching up to his stuff, you might consider him worth the investment. I'm not so easily convinced; he's teased us before with his talent, only to regress to frustrating incompetence. That kind of financial commitment is a huge gamble that only a very wealthy club can afford to take.
Griffin explains why agent Peter Greenberg is in town this week (he also has some clients on the Mariners) and puts the likelihood of a new Escobar deal into perspective. The Jays aren't just posturing; I think they are legitimately interested, on reasonable terms -- no more than $10 million over two years -- but Kelvim will turn them down.
This would not be a catastrophe. Given J.P.'s draft success, another couple of studs like Aaron Hill and Josh Banks isn't a bad return, presumably a lot more than he's been offered in previous trades. He will also have enough payroll room to trade for another #2 starter who is entering his walk year in 2004; the Curt Schilling rumours were fun, but there are many others available.
Don't forget that the Jays, plagued by the exchange rate and empty seats, are operating on a shoestring, and it's all about minimizing risk. I'd be more disappointed if they opened the vault to the wrong man than I will be about waving goodbye to Escobar.
Griffin projects Kelvim, at 27, to have 59 wins (and 58 saves) after this season, then makes some interesting comparisons:
Matt Morris, with 61 wins at age 29, earns $10.5 million. Bartolo Colon, with 85 wins at age 30, was given $8.25 million. Freddy Garcia, 60 wins at age 27, is making $6.9 million. Kevin Millwood, with 75 wins at age 29, is earning $9.9 million. Eric Milton, with 56 wins at age 28, is making $6 million. But none of them had bullpen time to cut into their W-totals.
This does support the idea that he's become too valuable on the open market for the Jays to do anything but offer him arbitration -- which he insists he won't accept -- and settle for the draft picks.
The question remains, would you give Kelvim Escobar $20 million or more for three years? Since becoming a starter again, he's been reasonably consistent and the hand numbness that plagued him after five or six innings when he was last in the rotation seems to be over. If you believe that the last three months indicates a "new and improved" pitcher whose approach is finally catching up to his stuff, you might consider him worth the investment. I'm not so easily convinced; he's teased us before with his talent, only to regress to frustrating incompetence. That kind of financial commitment is a huge gamble that only a very wealthy club can afford to take.
Griffin explains why agent Peter Greenberg is in town this week (he also has some clients on the Mariners) and puts the likelihood of a new Escobar deal into perspective. The Jays aren't just posturing; I think they are legitimately interested, on reasonable terms -- no more than $10 million over two years -- but Kelvim will turn them down.
This would not be a catastrophe. Given J.P.'s draft success, another couple of studs like Aaron Hill and Josh Banks isn't a bad return, presumably a lot more than he's been offered in previous trades. He will also have enough payroll room to trade for another #2 starter who is entering his walk year in 2004; the Curt Schilling rumours were fun, but there are many others available.
Don't forget that the Jays, plagued by the exchange rate and empty seats, are operating on a shoestring, and it's all about minimizing risk. I'd be more disappointed if they opened the vault to the wrong man than I will be about waving goodbye to Escobar.
