There are some great freebies at Baseball Prospectus, including the Postseason Odds Report, updated yesterday. Of particular interest is the AL wild-card race, in which Nate Silver's computations assign a 57.9% chance to the Red Sox and just 31.6% to the A's. To put Carlos Tosca's stubborn optimism into proper perspective, the Blue Jays "hopes" are down to 0.3% -- in other words, it's time to play Kevin Cash and Josh Phelps.
I'll bet the Diamondbacks (four games out with 39 to play) would argue with the notion that they have only a 6.9% chance of becoming the NL wild-card team. So would the Dodgers, who are one game farther back in the standings, with a mere 2.1% likelihood of playing in October. The Expos, despite being four games over .500, are impossible longshots (0.2%) according to these numbers. In both leagues, the Central Division remains up for grabs among three teams, but strength of schedule and third-order winning percentage favours the Cubbies (by a surprisingly large margin) and the Twins.
I'll bet the Diamondbacks (four games out with 39 to play) would argue with the notion that they have only a 6.9% chance of becoming the NL wild-card team. So would the Dodgers, who are one game farther back in the standings, with a mere 2.1% likelihood of playing in October. The Expos, despite being four games over .500, are impossible longshots (0.2%) according to these numbers. In both leagues, the Central Division remains up for grabs among three teams, but strength of schedule and third-order winning percentage favours the Cubbies (by a surprisingly large margin) and the Twins.
